Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[Karan M]

^^ Cant see anything as shocking anymore once the name Jamat turns up.
Not one among my "educated/liberal" IMs in my contact list has once said anything abt the Jamat antics or the mob videos attacking doctors though few are quick to jump into defending them and showing how the Jamat are "misunderstood"

All of them will of course be the first to jump and put into a snide 1-liner/like when any of my "liberal" contacts will post the usual spiel on big bad Modi or evil Hindu nationalist etc

Its amazing that we are even operating as a nation with 50-100 million such folks all over ( am assuming 25-30% of all IM folk fall into the no-hope category and 50% are in the silent acceptance category)

Yes, this sort of behavior has been an eye-opener. Not the right thread to discuss all this but really shameful, collective blind spot when it comes to their own belief systems plus lack of introspection.

[Karan M]

View into some of China's processes to help track the contagion.

https://twitter.com/hanson_hhc/status/1 ... 05351?s=20

Left Bangalore last night and just landed in Shanghai today afternoon. I am surprised by how Pudong Airport and this metro city has been running, under the #COVIDー19 challenge. Here are some of my observations:
I was told to get SuiShenCode, a color card showing my health status, in Alipay APP. Green means healthy.
The card is actually a health proof used by everyone in Shanghai. All restaurants and hotels asked me to show it before allowing me in.
A big data product made by Gov. Location tracing by telecom carriers. Moved to a new hotel today. A new step at check-in was providing my travel history. Scaned QR code using WeChat, clicked 'Yes' to allow carrier search my location data, and it showed which countries/cities I had been in past 14 days.

The doctor in video above shows the SuiShenCode App that the CCP has deployed for contact tracing and public health. I think the China probably locks the SuiShenCode app to the user via facial recognition. India should also mandate the installation of such an app (a Digilocker) with a public health function. How the SuiShenCode works is explained below

https://www.cougarboard.com/board/messa ... d=23359272

Great move and we should implement something similar, privacy wallahs be darned.

[Karan M]

Haven't you guys read about Arogya Setu ? Official app from GOI, available both on Android and IOS. Give it a try.

Yes - installed it and runs well. Only concern is about bluetooth always being ON. Hope they have mitigated that with strong security measures.

[Zynda]

Have installed Arogya Setu as well but haven't explored it as currently no need to step out of the house. But based on my location, the app showed me that I am in a low risk COVID area (green). So, I am hoping that once we visit a particular area, perhaps we can ask the app to interrogate and tell us the COVID risk level. But a better feature would be to interrogate via app before we leaving the house...

Another not so useful app is "Corona Watcher" developed by Govt. of Karnataka. Apparently, it is supposed to show regions where Corona virus patients have visited (one can select BLR Urban and it would show pin markers on places visited by Covid patients). Guess what, the app places the pin always on hospitals onlee. Was hoping that app would show other regions (may be a particular Supermarket or something like that)...

Next time, I need to step out of the house, I will see if Arogya Setu can do the above.

[Zynda]

GoI has mandated DRDO (with DEBEL acting as prime contractor) to manufacture 30,000 ventilators soon. Either the dead line is by early May or May end. Was not able to clear up that point...DEBEL has roped in BEML & one more DRDO lab to make sure it can meet the deadline. Seems like DEBEL top echelon folks are having sleepless nights 'cause of the immense pressure but except groups who are directly involved in ventilator work, the rest of them are working on need/call basis.

[tandav]

Haven't you guys read about Arogya Setu ? Official app from GOI, available both on Android and IOS. Give it a try.

I have installed it and trying it out

Usage
0) took my phone number, name, gender, age, a questionaire on my current symptoms and travel history
1) it turns on my GPS and bluetooth which is a battery drain but not an issue I feel. No idea why blue tooth turning on is required.
2) No QR code, the App is not locked to user identity (no aadhar integration, or facial recognition) Self reporting
3) Can only be used on smart phone (probably 30% of India population probably has smart phones)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... enetration
4) No explanation of how the data being collected will be used.
5) Does not have a feature to Geo locate areas (workplace, home, markets, recreation areas etc) that we want to visit and get safety information of that area
6) Does not seem to be as sophisticated as the SuiShenCode (given that China scans SuiShenCode app at every entry, which seems to give some Shawkinah). Apart from saying that I am safe, it does not give any other information. Does not give any heat maps of suspected cases
7) It also does not seem to have a method to gather data from public. For example I would use such an App to report potential COVID cases that we may hear from via grapevine around us... if many people report such cases then it could help authority to send investigation team and better prepare quarantine zones. Sounds pretty STASI like but I am putting in out there in case GOI is listening

The biggest issue is that it is not interactive... could have put in a chat feature / fact check feature etc using AI etc

[Kaivalya]

Haven't you guys read about Arogya Setu ? Official app from GOI, available both on Android and IOS. Give it a try.

1) it turns on my GPS and bluetooth which is a battery drain but not an issue I feel. No idea why blue tooth turning on is required

Tandavji - Bluetooth is designed to announce and gather other connections/phones in the proximity.Especially when a phone can be marked for isolation. Or for example more than 10 people gather in a place

This is to implement day 2 permitted release mechanisms. This can be effective after rapid test kits are deployed and large parts of the population is identified, tested , controlled for location and need to be monitored against a few who are identified and isolated.

Currently folks are still fighting identification- for example dr.ratnadips patients, TJ *****, travel contact guys etc.

Most of the FLICS who admire china, will fight us for ****identification***** forget testing, location control etc. To implement location control we need danda like china employing facial recognition to punish offenders. I can't imagine India enforcing something like that without BIF, media having fits.

Note : the only reason I say that facial recognition/location control to throw people in jail is not feasible is because of the number of false positives as well as unquestionable authority that has to be employed . Even now only few states have announced punitive measures for hiding TJs. Last 4 days in TN , 99% traced TJs are positive. Sad thing is it took 4 days...whereas if we deploy brute force it could have been 1 day. This is what civilized cultures cannot do in my humble opinion

[syam]

ANI
@ANI
·
3m
Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao has announced that the #CoronavirusLockdown shall continue in the state after April 14 till June 3.

[Arun.prabhu]

I shared the link a few pages back so yes, I have seen it. The CDC has now gotten on the European fraud track and have started adding all deaths with the Chinese flu to death counts from the Chinese flu.

I'm convinced at this point that our government is acting without all the data in hand (mostly because we're just now starting to get solid data these last three or so weeks. )I was panicking in late jan myself and started prepping by building half a year's stock of basic meds (paracetamol suspensions for my kids, vitamin supplements for my wife, BP meds for myself) along with 3 months supply of grains, pulses, nuts, oil, soaps, etc. The Chinese were lying and hiding data about the disease back then, but I stopped panicking once Diamond Princess data came out. Now, I don't know what the hell the Europeans and now Americans are playing at with these shenanigans, but something weird is going on.

Which to me indicates we are way overreacting. Certainly the mortality monitor data from EU indicates there’re other concerns than public health afoot.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Did you see the above? Some of the points they make seem silly, but many others are pretty thought-provoking. They show the mortality data for Switzerland and an affected northern Italian town, no higher than average in both cases. The fraction of positives for the flu as the flu season evolves is also shown. For the flu, testing initially reveals low positive fraction (~20%) at the beginning of the season for symptomatic individuals, then that goes up to 80% at the peak. For COVID, the +ve fraction hasn't budged from a narrow band of 10% to 20% worldwide. For the USA, it is around 20% to 25% (currently <20%). I initially got scared when I saw the exponential rise of number of cases in the USA. Then I found a site showing number of tests performed by day. Same exponential rise, and relatively flat +ve fraction.

This is a strange pandemic, either nothing much is going on after an initial infection, or the timescale is greatly stretched over years instead of months with the flu. The situation isn't helped by the fact that any death with a +ve test for Coronavirus, is automatically labeled as "Coronavirus death." The site mentions several instances of that as well.

[suryag]

Arun Prabhu ji, you have been shooting off seemingly random points in your posts, the larger theme of yours if I understand correctly is that the situation is not bad and CV flu is as bad as the seasonal flu. You have a few data points such as conflating deaths from CV with deaths along with CV. Can you write up one post summarizing this thesis with your data points and analysis. Without this it looks a lot more like noise and intentional FUD.

[yensoy]

ANI
@ANI
Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao has announced that the #CoronavirusLockdown shall continue in the state after April 14 till June 3.

KCR said may continue lockdown 1-2 weeks only; there was some other report saying June 3 he spoke about. ANI mixed them up.

[nam]

The rate of increase in Maharastra is bit of a concern.

Anybody have more information on the area effected? TN is majorly TJ, so traceable. Probably so is Delhi.

[Suraj]

This is prof Knut M Wittkowski. Impeccable credentials.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/knutmwittkowski

What does he say? Stop the lockdowns and let the population acquire herd immunity as that is the only way to stop it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

You don't need to appeal to authority to make that point. The purpose of a lockdown isn't to reduce the numbers infected - it's to flatten the curve and lower the pressure on the medical care infrastructure to prevent it from being overwhelmed by mass transmission within a very short time. All those fancy flatten the curve graphs make it clear that the total cases would be about the same either way, but that little detail tends to get lost. Even the CA governor stated that half the state will be infected anyway, leading to angry questions about 'why a lockdown then ?' requiring explanations about the case load otherwise overwhelming hospitals.

What's going to happen is that different countries or entities will experiment with different lockdown protocols based on their own localized caseloads. There was a very interesting set of charts posted a few pages ago within the past 5 days describing the case growth impact of one long lockdown, multiple back to back lockdowns, a short lockdown followed by a wait and another less severe lockdown, etc. If anyone has a reference to that post, please repost it.

For example, Telangana due to its TJ-driven cluster, has extended their lockdown by much longer than the national plan. This is going to be how things work - individual states will have to have extended lockdowns due to transmitted case loads that they need to isolate for longer, while nationally things get better as transmission continues but at a lesser rate.

[sanjaykumar]

Which to me indicates we are way overreacting. Certainly the mortality monitor data from EU indicates there’re other concerns than public health afoot.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Did you see the above? Some of the points they make seem silly, but many others are pretty thought-provoking. They show the mortality data for Switzerland and an affected northern Italian town, no higher than average in both cases. The fraction of positives for the flu as the flu season evolves is also shown. For the flu, testing initially reveals low positive fraction (~20%) at the beginning of the season for symptomatic individuals, then that goes up to 80% at the peak. For COVID, the +ve fraction hasn't budged from a narrow band of 10% to 20% worldwide. For the USA, it is around 20% to 25% (currently <20%). I initially got scared when I saw the exponential rise of number of cases in the USA. Then I found a site showing number of tests performed by day. Same exponential rise, and relatively flat +ve fraction.

This is a strange pandemic, either nothing much is going on after an initial infection, or the timescale is greatly stretched over years instead of months with the flu. The situation isn't helped by the fact that any death with a +ve test for Coronavirus, is automatically labeled as "Coronavirus death." The site mentions several instances of that as well.

All cause mortality is not the way to look at the data, it conceals subgroup differences. There are 38,000 traffic fatalities in the US yearly perhaps an equal number of gun homicides, and additionally similar opiate overdoses. In a lock down situation all these numbers will drop.

Thus the Chinese virus can be interpreted to perhaps be saving lives. Further, these above deaths involve young people. Thus when adjusted for person years of life, the Chinese virus may be considered a blessing!

[hanumadu]

Arun.prabhu, If the Chinese Flu is not any more harmful than normal flu, then how come hospitals are over run by sick people? Why is there a shortage of ventilators? Why are doctors having to triage patients? Why are health care professionals themselves getting sick and dying too? And mind you, this is with social distancing and lock down. What will happen without the lock down.

[syam]

KCR said may continue lockdown 1-2 weeks only; there was some other report saying June 3 he spoke about. ANI mixed them up.

I heard kcr speech. he is strongly suggesting modiji to extend the lock down till june 3rd.

even japan and singapore going for lock down after 'flattening' the curve. countries like india have no option. another reason why i ranted in earlier days about reconstructing chinese situation with available data. it seems like china first did partial lock down thing in jan and then lifted it. that's why the surge happened in feb. now they reimposed complete lock down. the drop in their cases is not good sign in any given case. chinis don't want to show the world their crippled backside until the world goes through same thing.

[KJo]

I have been tracking Confirmed cases.

US: The daily growth is reducing. It is now at 8%. Was in teens earlier, and the decline is also steady. By around Apr 18, we should see 0% growth. Then decline.
India: The growth is very erratic, so hard to see any trends emerging. I think it will be a few more days for that. India has to be watchful as there are crazies who want to ruin things for everyone.

[Deans]

Excluding TJ, the positive tests - even among likely carriers is just 2.5% (TJ attendees are under 5% positive).

The TJ attendees have a much higher positive rate. There were about 8000 attendees according to reports. There have already been more than 1000 cases from them if the numbers from the last few days are anything to go by.

I was referring to the TJ attendees (about 9000) and their primary contacts - like family members. That total is over 25,000. My impression is that around 20,000 have now been tested and we have about 1400 positives. But yes, its over 5% (probably under 10%)
Today 11432 tests (many are TJ ) with 311 positives. So. non TJ should be well under 2.5%

[Deans]

The rate of increase in Maharastra is bit of a concern.

Anybody have more information on the area effected? TN is majorly TJ, so traceable. Probably so is Delhi.

Only 40 cases in Delhi are non foreign returned and non TJ.
TN is almost entirely TJ, They have a fairly robust tracking mechanism though.

[DrRatnadip]

Which to me indicates we are way overreacting. Certainly the mortality monitor data from EU indicates there’re other concerns than public health afoot.

Excluding TJ, the positive tests - even among likely carriers is just 2.5% (TJ attendees are under 5% positive).

Dont just look at the numbers sir.. It may seem that overall mortality is not that significant.. But those who are landing in fulminant disease are dying horrible death.. Drawning in their own secreations gasping for air.. some having sudden cardiac arrest some have all their essential organ systems fail one by one.. After a stage nothing seem to work.. If you add ease with which this thing is spreading , it is better to over react ..

[Cyrano]

Kerala sets up South Korean-style COVID-19 testing kiosks
https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/k ... JNNkJmgQ_s

[Arun.prabhu]

I understand your fears. I really do. I was panicking myself in late Jan, but you should do your research. Read through all the data points I present below (you can find links to primary or secondary sources at https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ which is where I got these data points.)



1. 99% of deaths in Italy are made up of the very old and those with weak constitutions (one or more diseases and the more the comorbidities you have, the more likely you'll die.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... italy-says

From the Swprs website:

"The Italian National Health Institute ISS has published a new report on test-positive deaths:

The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
10% of the deceased was over 90 years old; 90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.
At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.
Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease)."


2. "Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which had already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic." (https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/ ... =550&h=309)

Note how the die off zone in northern Italy has seriously bad air quality just like wuhan did. The disease mortality rates apparently shoot up 200% from average if the air quality is moderate. That pic shows air quality in north Italy is much worse. 300ppm in the chart you see above.

3. The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age. (again from the swprs page.)

4. In Switzerland, some emergency units are already overloaded simply because of the large number of people who want to be tested. This points to an additional psychological and logistical component of the current situation. (this is happening elsewhere as well.)

5. The occupancy rate of the North Italian ICUs in the winter months is typically already 85 to 90%. Some or many of these existing patients could also be test-positive by now. However, the number of additional unexpected pneumonia cases is not yet known. (so apparently, there wasn't all that much excess ICU capacity before the system was overwhelmed.)

6. Chinese researchers argue that extreme winter smog in the city of Wuhan may have played a causal role in the outbreak of pneumonia. In the summer of 2019, public protests were already taking place in Wuhan because of the poor air quality. (even the Chinese think the smog that we were all agog about had a role to play. So, basically, the Chinese seemed to have gassed their population to death in an effort to disinfect wuhan.)

7. Here's a fun fact about the test kits. At least one of them isn't approved for diagnostic use and god knows how many of them are.

"A manufacturer of the Covid19 test kit states that it should only be used for research purposes and not for diagnostic applications, as it has not yet been clinically validated."

8. Italian ICUs have already collapsed under the load once before during the 2017-18 flu season:

"A report in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018. They had to postpone operations, call nurses back from holiday and ran out of blood donations."

9. German virologist Hendrik Streeck argues that Covid19 is unlikely to increase total mortality in Germany, which normally is around 2500 people per day. Streeck mentions the case of a 78-year-old man with preconditions who died of heart failure, subsequently tested positive for Covid19 and thus was included in the statistics of Covid19 deaths.

10. According to the latest German statistics, the median age of test-positive deaths is about 83 years, most with pre-existing health conditions that might be a possible cause of death. (as in Italy, so apparently in Germany. Look at the Indian dead ages in wiki as well. Only one less than 40 (38 years to be precise.))

11. On March 20, Italy reported 627 nationwide test-positive deaths in one day. By comparison, normal overall mortality in Italy is about 1800 deaths per day. Since February 21, Italy has reported about 4000 test-positive deaths. Normal overall mortality during this time frame is up to 50,000 deaths. It is not yet known to what extent normal overall mortality has increased, or to what extent it has simply turned test-positive. Moreover, Italy and Europe have had a very mild flu season in 2019/2020 that has spared many otherwise vulnerable people.

12. The kicker about overwhelmed ICUs causing deaths:

"According to Italian news reports, 90% of test-positive deceased in the Lombardy region have died outside of intensive care units, mostly at home or in general care sections. Their cause of death and the possible role of quarantine measures in their deaths remain unclear. Only 260 out of 2168 test-positive persons have died in ICUs."

So, 90% of the dead in Lombardy who died *with* Chinese flu did not have Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. And given the age profiles listed in point 1, one could be excused for assuming they were mostly old timers who were going to die within the next year (this means none of those deaths would contribute to excess deaths, btw. A doctor friend of mine over at Baen's Bar says that we have to count the total dead in the year of the pandemic and the next and if the overall death rate increase is less than 5% then the disease did not cause significant excess deaths. Given the age profiles of the dead so far, I'd be surprised if there is even an increase.)

13. No runaway epidemic in Japan with temperatures very conducive to virus survival.

"The Japan Times asks: Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it? Despite being one of the first countries getting positive test results and having imposed no lockdown, Japan is one of the least-affected nations. Quote: „Even if Japan may not be counting all those infected, hospitals aren’t being stretched thin and there has been no spike in pneumonia cases.“"

14. The imposed lockdown can kill the elderly because they can't get care that they need:

"In a new interview, Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, a world renowned expert in medical microbiology, says blaming the new coronavirus alone for deaths is „wrong“ and „dangerously misleading“, as there are other more important factors at play, notably pre-existing health conditions and poor air quality in Chinese and Northern Italian cities. Professor Bhakdi describes the currently discussed or imposed measures as „grotesque“, „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“ that will shorten the lifespan of the elderly and should not be accepted by society."

15. Only 12% of death certificates of those who died with the Chinese flu show it as the cause:

"If so, it may be one of those cases where the treatment is worse than the disease. (See update below: only 12% of death certificates show the coronavirus as a cause."

16. So, if the medical personnel have to self-quarantine, doesn't that reduce the count of nurses and doctors available for patient care:

"In many countries, there is already an increasing shortage of doctors and nurses. This is primarily because healthcare workers testing positive have to self-quarantine, even though in many cases they will remain fully or largely symptom-free."

17. The doomsday model that predicted half a million deaths in UK:

"A model from Imperial College London predicted between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths in the UK „from“ Covid-19, but the authors of the study have now conceded that many of these deaths would not be in addition to, but rather part of the normal annual mortality rate, which in the UK is about 600,000 people per year. In other words, excess mortality would remain low."

18. A new French study in the Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, titled SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data, concludes that „the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated“, since „the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France“.

19. Italy always has an apocalypse in the flu season because of the old age population:

"An Italian study of August 2019 found that flu deaths in Italy were between 7,000 and 25,000 in recent years. This value is higher than in most other European countries due to the large elderly population in Italy, and much higher than anything attributed to Covid-19 so far."

20. The Chinese flu is not spreading like lightning apparently. It has higher reproduction rates than flu, but the gestation period is longer so the flu wins the race:

"In a new fact sheet, the World Health Organization WHO reports that Covid-19 is in fact spreading slower, not faster, than influenza by a factor of about 50%. Moreover, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to be much lower with Covid-19 than with influenza."

21. Pietro Vernazza, a Swiss infectious disease specialist, argues that many of the imposed measures are not based on science and should be reversed. According to Vernazza, mass testing makes no sense because 90% of the population will see no symptoms, and lockdowns and closing schools are even „counterproductive“. He recommends protecting only risk groups while keeping the economy and society at large undisturbed.

22. The Swiss did not lockdown and strangely, there is no epidemic spreading like wildfire there:

"Beds in Swiss intensive care units reserved for Covid19 patients are still „mostly empty“."

23. German immunologist and toxicologist, Professor Stefan Hockertz, explains in a radio interview that Covid19 is no more dangerous than influenza (the flu), but that it is simply observed much more closely. More dangerous than the virus is the fear and panic created by the media and the „authoritarian reaction“ of many governments. Professor Hockertz also notes that most so-called „corona deaths“ have in fact died of other causes while also testing positive for coronaviruses. Hockertz believes that up to ten times more people than reported already had Covid19 but noticed nothing or very little.

24. Adjusted for age, the Diamond Princess data shows the Chinese flu is just a moderately serious flu:

"Using data from the cruise ship Diamond Princess, Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu. Moreover, a Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive passengers, and despite the high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48% remained symptom-free, while among the 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that developed no symptoms at all. This again raises the question whether the pre-existing diseases are not perhaps a more important factor than the virus itself. The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned Covid19 as a causal factor."

BTW, in china, 78% of the infected did not show symptoms (the Chinese are releasing the data now that the whole world has shot itself in the foot.) Is China in the middle of a zombie apocalypse now?

25. In US, as the number of Chinese flu cases go up, the number of flulike illnesses count is dropping precipitously:

"USA: The latest US data of March 25 shows a decreasing number of flu-like illnesses throughout the country, the frequency of which is now well below the multi-year average. The government measures can be ruled out as a reason for this, as they have been in effect for less than a week."

https://healthweather.us/?mode=Atypical

So the disease was already there, but they are just now specifically identifying it. And you didn't see the American hospitals in the last few months did you?

26. Germany: The latest influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute of March 24 documents a „nationwide decrease in activity of acute respiratory diseases“: The number of influenza-like illnesses and the number of hospital stays caused by them is below the level of previous years and is currently continuing to decline. The RKI continues: „The increase in the number of visits to the doctor cannot currently be explained either by influenza viruses circulating in the population or by SARS-CoV-2.“

So, in the middle of a killer respiratory disease, the number of infected count is lower than average? WTF pandemic?

27. How many infected in France? Mortality is average.

"France: According to the latest data from France, overall mortality at the national level remains within the normal range after a mild influenza season. However, in some regions, particularly in the north-east of France, overall mortality in the over-65 age group has already risen sharply in connection with Covid19 (see figure below)."

In france, the average age of patient requiring ICU is 65 years. This is the world killer disease that we're killing the economy for.

28. The doomsday UK study author changes his mind and thinks there are enough beds fand ventilators for the peak of the crisis:

"Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London now assumes that the UK has sufficient capacity in intensive care units to treat Covid19 patients."

29. German Virology professor Dr. Carsten Scheller from the University of Würzburg explains in a podcast that Covid19 is definitely comparable with influenza and has so far even led to fewer deaths. Professor Scheller suspects that the exponential curves often presented in the media have more to do with the increasing number of tests than with an unusual spread of the virus itself. For countries like Germany, Italy is less of a role model than Japan and South Korea. Despite millions of Chinese tourists and only minimal social restrictions, these countries have not yet experienced a Covid19 crisis. One reason for this could be the wearing of mouth masks: This would hardly protect against infection, but would limit the spread of the virus by infected people.

30. A new study by the University of Oxford concludes that Covid19 may already have existed in the UK since January 2020 and that half of the population may already be immunised, with most people experiencing no or only mild symptoms. This would mean that only one in a thousand people would need to be hospitalised for Covid19.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20042291v1

31. British media reported on a 21 year old woman „who died of Covid19 without any previous illnesses“. However, it has since become known that the woman did not test positive for Covid19 and died of a heart failure. The Covid19 rumor had arisen „because she had a slight cough“.

32. The latest data from the German Robert Koch Institute show that the increase in test-positive persons is proportional to the increase in the number of tests, i.e. in percentage terms it remains roughly the same. This may indicate that the increase in the number of cases is mainly due to an increase in the number of tests, and not due to an ongoing epidemic.

33. Overloaded hospitals in Germany. How? They quarantined the nurses. So there isn't enough care providers to provide care. LMAO

"In Germany, some clinics can no longer accept patients – not because there are too many patients or too few beds, but because the nursing staff have tested positive, although in most cases they hardly show any symptoms. This case illustrates again how and why health care systems are getting paralysed."

34. In a German retirement and nursing home for people with advanced dementia, 15 test-positive people have died. However, „surprisingly many people have died without showing symptoms of corona.“ A German medical specialist informs us: „From my medical point of view, there is some evidence that some of these people may have died as a result of the measures taken. People with dementia get into high stress when major changes are made to their everyday lives: isolation, no physical contact, possibly hooded staff.“ Nevertheless, the deceased are counted as „corona deaths“ in German and international statistics. In connection with the „corona crisis“, it is now also possible to die of an illness without even having its symptoms. (ties in with lockdown measures causing death amongst the elderly.)

35. According to a Swiss pharmacologist, the Swiss Inselspital in Bern has forced staff to take leave, stopped therapies and postponed operations due to the fear of Covid19. (my cousin who is a doctor tells me this is the case in parts of india wrt private hospitals. So, in the time of a pandemic, we close hospitals and send medical personnel home? And then cry about being overwhelmed.)

36. Those dead doctors in the west: They were very old, very retired doctors and included those who died of natural causes. ROFL

"Various media reported that more than 50 doctors in Italy have already died „during the corona crisis“, like soldiers in a battle. A glance at the corresponding list, however, shows that most of the deceased are retired doctors of various kinds, including 90-year-old psychiatrists and pediatricians, many of whom may have died of natural causes."

37. The percentage of positive tests that we talked about earlier in the thread:

"Dr. Richard Capek and other researchers have already shown that the number of test-positive individuals in relation to the number of tests performed remains constant in all countries studied so far, which speaks against an exponential spread („epidemic“) of the virus and merely indicates an exponential increase in the number of tests.

Depending on the country, the proportion of test-positive individuals is between 5 and 15%, which corresponds to the usual spread of corona viruses. Interestingly, these constant numerical values are not actively communicated (or even removed) by authorities and the media. Instead, exponential but irrelevant and misleading curves are shown without context.

Such behavior, of course, does not correspond to professional medical standards, as a look at the traditional influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute makes clear (p. 30, see chart below). Here, in addition to the number of detections (right), the number of samples (left, grey bars) and the positive rate (left, blue curve) are shown.

This immediately shows that during a flu season the positive rate rises from 0 to 10% to up to 80% of the samples and drops back to the normal value after a few weeks. In comparison, Covid19 tests show a constant positive rate in the normal range"

38. Overall mortality in Europe was average in Europe until March 25. And before you start with they locked down the economy and so accidents, violent crimes, etc aren't happening, accidents cause 3.2% of deaths in all of EU. There were less than 6000 violent crime related deaths in all of EU last year.

"A graphical analysis of the European monitoring data impressively shows that, irrespective of the measures taken, overall mortality throughout Europe remained in the normal range or below by March 25, and often significantly below the levels of previous years. Only in Italy (65+) was the overall mortality rate somewhat increased (probably for several reasons), but it was still below previous flu seasons."

39. In Italy, there were already severe cases of pneumonia thanks to the bad air quality in january:

"Italian doctors reported that they had already observed severe cases of pneumonia in northern Italy at the end of last year. However, genetic analyses now show that the Covid19 virus only appeared in Italy in January of this year. „The severe pneumonia diagnosed in Italy in November and December must therefore be due to a different pathogen,“ a virologist noted. This once again raises the question what role the Covid19 virus, or other factors, actually play in the Italian situation."

40: the MSM are spreading lies as usual to hype the news cycle:

"The US television station CBS was caught using footage from an Italian intensive care unit in a piece on the current situation in New York. In fact, dozens of recordings by citizen journalists show that it is currently very quiet in the hospitals on the US East and West Coast, described as „war zones“ by the media. Even the „corpse refrigerator trucks“ prominently shown in the media are unused and empty."

41. No increased occupancy in German ICUs:

"Contrary to media reports, the register of German intensive care units also shows no increased occupancy. An employee of a Munich clinic explained that they had been „waiting for weeks for the wave to hit“, but that there was „no increase in patient numbers“. He said that the politicians‘ statements did not correspond with their own experience, and that the „myth of the killer virus“ could „not be confirmed“."

42. The director of the University Medical Center Hamburg, Dr. Ansgar Lohse, demands a quick end to curfews and contact bans. He argues that more people should be infected with corona. Kitas and schools should be reopened as soon as possible so that children and their parents can become immune through infection with the corona virus. The continuation of the strict measures would lead to an economic crisis, which would also cost lives, said the physician.

43. More on Germany and respiratory diseases. The Chinese flu is about 10-15% of the overall respiratory cases: Again, so much for an epidemic.

"According to the latest influenza report of the German Robert Koch Institute, the number of acute respiratory diseases has „fallen sharply nationwide“. The values have „dropped in all age groups“.

By March 20, the total number of inpatient cases with acute respiratory diseases had also fallen significantly. In the age group from 80 years and older, the number of cases had almost halved compared to the previous week.

In the 73 hospitals examined, 7% of all cases with respiratory diseases were diagnosed with COVID-19. In the age groups 35-59 years it was 16% and in the age group 60-79 years it was 13% who received a COVID-19 diagnosis.

These figures correspond to those from other countries as well as to the typical prevalence of coronaviruses (5 to 15%)."

44.Virus test kits destined for Great Britain had to be recalled because they already contained corona virus components. (so the test was always going to be positive. imagine that.)

45. How are corona virus deaths counted? The BBC answers:

"The BBC asks, „Is coronavirus causing the deaths?„, and replies, „It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else.“ For example, an 18-year-old man was reported as the „youngest Corona victim“ after a positive test the day before his death. However, the hospital later reported that the young man had died of a serious pre-existing condition."

46. The relation between pollution and flu and mortality was already known at least as early as 2018:

"Already in 2018, the Guardian wrote that „Pollution and flu bring steep rise in lung-related illnesses„: Shortage of specialists adds to worries that surge in respiratory diseases is putting pressure on A&Es."

Arun.prabhu, If the Chinese Flu is not any more harmful than normal flu, then how come hospitals are over run by sick people? Why is there a shortage of ventilators? Why are doctors having to triage patients? Why are health care professionals themselves getting sick and dying too? And mind you, this is with social distancing and lock down. What will happen without the lock down.

[Arun.prabhu]

Doctor,
A hundred and fifty thousand children and healthy adults and old-timers die in road accidents on our roads every year. A lot of them die horrible deaths.

As a nation, we should care for the families of the dead, but as for the dead themselves, "life's a bitch and then you die." It makes me sound monstrous to say that, but as a doctor, can you deny the truth of that statement?
Regards,
Arun

Which to me indicates we are way overreacting. Certainly the mortality monitor data from EU indicates there’re other concerns than public health afoot.

Dont just look at the numbers sir.. It may seem that overall mortality is not that significant.. But those who are landing in fulminant disease are dying horrible death.. Drawning in their own secreations gasping for air.. some having sudden cardiac arrest some have all their essential organ systems fail one by one.. After a stage nothing seem to work.. If you add ease with which this thing is spreading , it is better to over react ..

[sudarshan]

Arun.prabhu,

I'm not Arun.Prabhu (though we haven't been seen together), but I've been thinking of these questions myself, so will take a shot.

If the Chinese Flu is not any more harmful than normal flu, then how come hospitals are over run by sick people?

Complete panic, maybe? "OMG, I have the coronavirus!" and doctors reacting the same. The website in my post above (which Arun.Prabhu originally posted) talked about patients from northern Italy being air-lifted to Germany, while nearby Verona had vacant hospital beds. I've also been totally flummoxed by how the reported, relatively small number of severe cases (which I assume are the ones requiring hospitalization) could totally overwhelm the health care system of northern Italy, especially when those hospitals are a. geared to take the same number of cases during the normal flu season, and b. the flu season is ending, which should be freeing up enough number of beds. The website above also talks about how, as soon as doctors or nurses are tested positive for the CV, they are quarantined, leading to severe shortages of personnel.

Why is there a shortage of ventilators?

No clue, still can't figure this out (either the panic is doing it, or the notion that this disease is not that severe, is wrong).

Why are doctors having to triage patients?

Irrational panic can do that, not saying that's the reason, but it's a possibility.

Why are health care professionals themselves getting sick and dying too? And mind you, this is with social distancing and lock down. What will happen without the lock down.

Are they getting sick, or are they testing positive and immediately getting quarantined? Those are two very different things. As for dying, I am again clueless, got to see some actual numbers.

What will happen without the lock down? Seems like most people agree that the lock down only slows down the curve, the area under the curve stays the same. Maybe without the lockdown, and also without the panic, and without reporting every possible CV event as a "CV death," things won't be that bad?

If the above is right (i.e., the disease isn't that severe), then I would expect certain things to happen. For one, that prediction, based on data modeling, that 80,000 Americans are going to die of the disease (since upgraded to 93,000 Americans, and mind you, this supposedly accounts for the lockdown) - well, I'd expect that prediction to fall apart, and the number of deaths to be a lot less. Up to yesterday, the actual number of reported deaths was right on the predicted curve. Yesterday, the number of reported deaths fell far short of the predicted curve. If the same thing happens tomorrow and the next couple of days after, I'd feel more confident about the panic theory. We'll see.

The second thing I would expect, is that the fraction of reported positives, to total number of tests, declines, or at the least, continues to remain flat the next week or two. Again, we'll see.

The third thing would be that the whole "pandemic" grinds to an abrupt halt, once all the infected cases are identified, and once deaths can no longer be attributed to the virus itself. I would expect these things to happen in the next week or two. If these don't happen, then it's probably not just panic. If two out of three happen, I'd feel more confident of the panic theory (though of course, there's no way I can be certain).

[Arun.prabhu]

I saw that chart and I'm happy that our government is trying to take care of us, but the disease isn't as deadly as we believe it to be... Do we close our roads to save the 150000 annual dead? Or ban all industries to reduce the incidence of heavy metal poisoning and the shortening of life expectancy that causes? Have we banned sugar to fight the diabetes epidemic that will claim so many millions decades before they would otherwise have died?

This is prof Knut M Wittkowski. Impeccable credentials.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/knutmwittkowski

What does he say? Stop the lockdowns and let the population acquire herd immunity as that is the only way to stop it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

You don't need to appeal to authority to make that point. The purpose of a lockdown isn't to reduce the numbers infected - it's to flatten the curve and lower the pressure on the medical care infrastructure to prevent it from being overwhelmed by mass transmission within a very short time. All those fancy flatten the curve graphs make it clear that the total cases would be about the same either way, but that little detail tends to get lost. Even the CA governor stated that half the state will be infected anyway, leading to angry questions about 'why a lockdown then ?' requiring explanations about the case load otherwise overwhelming hospitals.

What's going to happen is that different countries or entities will experiment with different lockdown protocols based on their own localized caseloads. There was a very interesting set of charts posted a few pages ago within the past 5 days describing the case growth impact of one long lockdown, multiple back to back lockdowns, a short lockdown followed by a wait and another less severe lockdown, etc. If anyone has a reference to that post, please repost it.

For example, Telangana due to its TJ-driven cluster, has extended their lockdown by much longer than the national plan. This is going to be how things work - individual states will have to have extended lockdowns due to transmitted case loads that they need to isolate for longer, while nationally things get better as transmission continues but at a lesser rate.

[milindc]

I saw that chart and I'm happy that our government is trying to take care of us, but the disease isn't as deadly as we believe it to be... Do we close our roads to save the 150000 annual dead? Or ban all industries to reduce the incidence of heavy metal poisoning and the shortening of life expectancy that causes? Have we banned sugar to fight the diabetes epidemic that will claim so many millions decades before they would otherwise have died?

You don't need to appeal to authority to make that point. The purpose of a lockdown isn't to reduce the numbers infected - it's to flatten the curve and lower the pressure on the medical care infrastructure to prevent it from being overwhelmed by mass transmission within a very short time. All those fancy flatten the curve graphs make it clear that the total cases would be about the same either way, but that little detail tends to get lost. Even the CA governor stated that half the state will be infected anyway, leading to angry questions about 'why a lockdown then ?' requiring explanations about the case load otherwise overwhelming hospitals.

What's going to happen is that different countries or entities will experiment with different lockdown protocols based on their own localized caseloads. There was a very interesting set of charts posted a few pages ago within the past 5 days describing the case growth impact of one long lockdown, multiple back to back lockdowns, a short lockdown followed by a wait and another less severe lockdown, etc. If anyone has a reference to that post, please repost it.

For example, Telangana due to its TJ-driven cluster, has extended their lockdown by much longer than the national plan. This is going to be how things work - individual states will have to have extended lockdowns due to transmitted case loads that they need to isolate for longer, while nationally things get better as transmission continues but at a lesser rate.

Disease is not deadly? What numbers make you think like that?

[Arun.prabhu]

The Americans have reduced the number of ventilators they expect they'll need for the peak. The models for the Chinese flu have consistently overshot the mark.

Why are health care professionals themselves getting sick and dying too? And mind you, this is with social distancing and lock down. What will happen without the lock down.

Are they getting sick, or are they testing positive and immediately getting quarantined? Those are two very different things. As for dying, I am again clueless, got to see some actual numbers.

What will happen without the lock down? Seems like most people agree that the lock down only slows down the curve, the area under the curve stays the same. Maybe without the lockdown, and also without the panic, and without reporting every possible CV event as a "CV death," things won't be that bad?

If the above is right (i.e., the disease isn't that severe), then I would expect certain things to happen. For one, that prediction, based on data modeling, that 80,000 Americans are going to die of the disease (since upgraded to 93,000 Americans, and mind you, this supposedly accounts for the lockdown) - well, I'd expect that prediction to fall apart, and the number of deaths to be a lot less. Up to yesterday, the actual number of reported deaths was right on the predicted curve. Yesterday, the number of reported deaths fell far short of the predicted curve. If the same thing happens tomorrow and the next couple of days after, I'd feel more confident about the panic theory. We'll see.

The second thing I would expect, is that the fraction of reported positives, to total number of tests, declines, or at the least, continues to remain flat the next week or two. Again, we'll see.

The third thing would be that the whole "pandemic" grinds to an abrupt halt, once all the infected cases are identified, and once deaths can no longer be attributed to the virus itself. I would expect these things to happen in the next week or two. If these don't happen, then it's probably not just panic. If two out of three happen, I'd feel more confident of the panic theory (though of course, there's no way I can be certain).

[Arun.prabhu]

Read my response to hanumadu.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7800&start=4760#p2425882

The numbers of the ground. Not the Chinese made up numbers, but what we're seeing in the west. The official counts are skewed towards symptomatic cases and serious ones at that, thanks to selection bias. It will remain that way until people start doing random tests for the whole population.

I saw that chart and I'm happy that our government is trying to take care of us, but the disease isn't as deadly as we believe it to be... Do we close our roads to save the 150000 annual dead? Or ban all industries to reduce the incidence of heavy metal poisoning and the shortening of life expectancy that causes? Have we banned sugar to fight the diabetes epidemic that will claim so many millions decades before they would otherwise have died?

Disease is not deadly? What numbers make you think like that?

[DrRatnadip]

Doctor,
A hundred and fifty thousand children and healthy adults and old-timers die in road accidents on our roads every year. A lot of them die horrible deaths.

As a nation, we should care for the families of the dead, but as for the dead themselves, "life's a bitch and then you die." It makes me sound monstrous to say that, but as a doctor, can you deny the truth of that statement?
Regards,
Arun

Dont just look at the numbers sir.. It may seem that overall mortality is not that significant.. But those who are landing in fulminant disease are dying horrible death.. Drawning in their own secreations gasping for air.. some having sudden cardiac arrest some have all their essential organ systems fail one by one.. After a stage nothing seem to work.. If you add ease with which this thing is spreading , it is better to over react ..

I have seen fair number of horrible deaths sir.. Deaths in Accidents are not going to collapse our hospitals.. They dont put doctors and nurses at risk.. I am against extended lock down.. We have to come out of this lock down some day.. But we cant let this virus have free run..

[milindc]

Read my response to handmadu.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7800&start=4760#p2425882

The numbers of the ground. Not the Chinese made up numbers, but what we're seeing in the west. The official counts are skewed towards symptomatic cases and serious ones at that, thanks to selection bias. It will remain that way until people start doing random tests for the whole population.

Disease is not deadly? What numbers make you think like that?

I don't know if you really know the situation on the ground. The medical system is completely overwhelmed by the cases. Every hospital in UK has postponed non critical procedures and allocated those ICU units along with hospital beds for treating the infected. And all those ICU units are close to being full. They expect more cases coming in.

In US, similar situation where the staff is completely over worked and system has become over burdened.
Now you might say, let them die, but the current world order doesn't work that way.

[Mollick.R]

Apologies if posted earlier

Centre partially lifts ban on export of hydroxychloroquine and paracetamol
TNN | Apr 6, 2020, 09.44 PM IST

NEW DELHI: India has partially opened up exports of hydroxychloroquine and paracetamol, which are crucial to the global fight against the coronavirus, responding to a global clamour, led by US President Donald Trump.

The government on Monday decided to free up exports of all medicines, but kept hydroxychloroquine and paracetamol exports on a restricted list. Exports of these two items will be decided by the ministry of external affairs (MEA) along with the Department of pharmaceuticals, depending on humanitarian and extent of COVID infection in that country. India is the world’s largest producer and exporter of hydroxychloroquine.

Trump made a personal appeal to Modi to open up hydroxychloroquine exports. Trump has, in a controversial move, cleared the use of this anti-malarial drug against COVID-19. India has cleared the use of the drug as prophylactic for frontline healthcare workers, directly exposed to the virus, but not yet as treatment, citing insufficient data.

But the use of hydroxychloroquine is gaining acceptance among countries clutching at straws while the virus claims thousands of lives around the world.

On Monday, the latest to call was from Scott Morrison, Australian PM, who also urged Modi to open up pharma exports. In the past few days, Modi has fielded calls from Brazil, Israel, Bahrain, Spain, France, Germany and UK among others, all urging him to open up pharma, particularly hydroxychloroquine, exports.

With India getting a fresh infusion of 150 million tonnes of APIs (active pharmaceutical ingredient) from China, the government, after consultation with pharma companies decided they would be able to meet domestic demand as well as their international commitments.
When the coronavirus epidemic started to gain ground, the Indian government clamped down on pharma exports, expecting a spike in demand. However, sections of the government, notably commerce and foreign ministries argued that India needed to maintain both its global market share as well as honour its international commitments. “We cannot abdicate our role as a global player,” said government sources.

Monday’s decision came days after Trump’s phone call, which sharpened focus on India’s strategic relationships — in fact, all the leaders who have called Modi are India’s close strategic partners. India will honour all its pending orders, sources said.

As long as the pandemic is raging, the government plans to monitor the exports of the two key drugs.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 015760.cms

[nam]

The argument that these old people would have died later this year anyway, is a fallacy.

One, they would not have all died within the same week or month, overwhelming the hospitals.

And more importantly, heart, kidney, cancer patients don't infect doctors & nurses resulting in their death and sickness.

The Chinese virus may not have mortality rate as some other disease, but it has triggered a theoretical & mathematical "could". A fear that has come true.

[Mollick.R]

Centre partially lifts ban on export of hydroxychloroquine and paracetamol

Quick points

1. Hope we are not messing things up, still very difficult and early to say in which way desh is leading (& thus domestic requirement too). If in future things hit the roof and there is just one news from xyz block hospital about shortage of HCL, media, BIF will eat GOI alive. Wish and hope some babu at North block is not setting out or falling on some trap...........

India is the world’s largest producer and exporter of hydroxychloroquine.......
On Monday, the latest to call was from Scott Morrison, Australian PM, who also urged Modi to open up pharma exports. In the past few days, Modi has fielded calls from Brazil, Israel, Bahrain, Spain, France, Germany and UK among others, all urging him to open up pharma, particularly hydroxychloroquine, exports.

2. Just one silver bullet in the hour of need and this gives us so much strategic hard and soft power. Hope India reminds all the countries (minus Israel courtesy Kargil) that we are "HELPING" them now & they do owe us something.

[Arun.prabhu]

I personally believe the lockdown is a waste of time and money, but I have gone outside my home twice in the last two weeks. I'm doing my bit in case I'm wrong, but I'm fairly convinced that we're reacting in a panic and aren't letting the data lead our conclusions. I'm economically secure, though this pandemic has cost me about 5 lacs so far in terms of lost earnings and profits. I grew up hearing stories about the extreme poverty my mom and dad grew up in and I worry about those who are economically so blighted today.

As for the effectiveness of the lockdown, both times I went out, I saw people not keeping social distance, not wearing masks, wearing disposable and N95 masks upside down (how one can manage that with the later, one wonders), saw an idiot with a full grown beard with an N95 mask (another mask wasted there as you need to be clean shaven for the seal to happen)...

Doctor,
A hundred and fifty thousand children and healthy adults and old-timers die in road accidents on our roads every year. A lot of them die horrible deaths.

As a nation, we should care for the families of the dead, but as for the dead themselves, "life's a bitch and then you die." It makes me sound monstrous to say that, but as a doctor, can you deny the truth of that statement?
Regards,
Arun

I have seen fair number of horrible deaths sir.. Deaths in Accidents are not going to collapse our hospitals.. They dont put doctors and nurses at risk.. I am against extended lock down.. We have to come out of this lock down some day.. But we cant let this virus have free run..

[Arun.prabhu]

Can you cite on the number of doctors who have died please?

As for fallacy, actually, no it is not. Look up the age profiles of the dead as well as health profiles. Serious co-morbidities. A lot of them had multiple serious co-morbidities.

The argument that these old people would have died later this year anyway, is a fallacy.

One, they would not have all died within the same week or month, overwhelming the hospitals.

And more importantly, heart, kidney, cancer patients don't infect doctors & nurses resulting in their death and sickness.

The Chinese virus may not have mortality rate as some other disease, but it has triggered a theoretical & mathematical "could". A fear that has come true.

[suryag]

What i have seen is Chinese Ten centers on various forums who are making this sound like regular flu using sophistry through curated statistics/news items mainly because the wrath of the world is slowly crystallizing around the center of gravity of this mess .... meanwhile few arguments here remind me of a certain Mr.Comprehension that we used to have here..... just saying TIFWIW

[disha]

I have been tracking Confirmed cases.

US: The daily growth is reducing. It is now at 8%. Was in teens earlier, and the decline is also steady. By around Apr 18, we should see 0% growth. Then decline.
India: The growth is very erratic, so hard to see any trends emerging. I think it will be a few more days for that. India has to be watchful as there are crazies who want to ruin things for everyone.

In India look at cluster-specific growth. For example, look at hot spots like Mah, Delhi, Kerala & Rajasthan.

[nam]

Can you cite on the number of doctors who have died please?

As for fallacy, actually, no it is not. Look up the age profiles of the dead as well as health profiles. Serious co-morbidities. A lot of them had multiple serious co-morbidities.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/ ... 39314.html

More than 100 doctors & nurses have died in Italy alone. I know in UK 4 doctors and 7 nurses have died so far. Not to mention the infected medical personal being taken out of the hospital work.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11968928

As i said heart patients don't kill doctors, all die at the same time, take out expert nurses from ICU, nor block an entire hospital to treat only one disease like in Italy.

[Arun.prabhu]

Oh, you mean these doctors and the ones who died since. Look at the DOBs on the dead doctors.

https://web.archive.org/web/20200328152 ... -covid-19/

By the by, this is the latest list. Note how the DOBs are now missing. LMAO

https://portale.fnomceo.it/elenco-dei-m ... -covid-19/

Can you cite on the number of doctors who have died please?

As for fallacy, actually, no it is not. Look up the age profiles of the dead as well as health profiles. Serious co-morbidities. A lot of them had multiple serious co-morbidities.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/ ... 39314.html

More than 100 doctors & nurses have died in Italy alone. I know in UK 4 doctors and 7 nurses have died so far. Not to mention the infected medical personal being taken out of the hospital work.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11968928

As i said heart patients don't kill doctors, all die at the same time, take out expert nurses from ICU, nor block an entire hospital to treat only one disease like in Italy.

[Arun.prabhu]

Is that an insinuation against my character? I would advice you to go to the swprs page, and this is very important, follow the links in all the data points they have made, use google translate liberally and as necessary before you denounce me for a Chinese agent provocateur.

What i have seen is Chinese Ten centers on various forums who are making this sound like regular flu using sophistry through curated statistics/news items mainly because the wrath of the world is slowly crystallizing around the center of gravity of this mess .... meanwhile few arguments here remind me of a certain Mr.Comprehension that we used to have here..... just saying TIFWIW