Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[arvin]

Or the detection rate is significantly lower than in other countries.

Or the co-morbidities are higher than other countries?

For example, if you look at some of the Thoo-blighies, they are obese with at least two co-morbidities -> Diabetes and High Blood pressure. I will not be surprised if their Heart Health is also bad (a third co-morbidity).

Also look at their vaccination history. I suspect none of them might had a vaccination for BCG, that is given within 2 weeks of birth. They wont do it unless it has stamp of approval in the form of fatwa. Hope the govt keeps a track of active cases and their vaccination history.
Even in 2020 there is reluctance for polio vaccination in muslim majority malapuram in kerala.

https://www.opindia.com/2020/01/polio-v ... alappuram/

[srai]

This was deleted from medium and this is just an archive ...

Yes, but has it been posted on BRF? I checked this thready (went back quiet a few pages but didn't see). Here is the guy who posted original link - https://twitter.com/agaiziunas

Yes, discussed already. That article is peddling pseudoscience to claim unproven as a miracle. It follows a clever writing pattern we have seen with “fake news” to fool susceptible readers.

[vimal]

Meanwhile:

Politicizing the issue of yellow PPE kits given by the Centre to the state government, the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said that the state might not use it.

Kolkata: Politicizing the issue of yellow PPE kits given by the Centre to the state government, the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said that the state might not use it.

The WB CM’s statement comes at a time when India is battling the deadly coronavirus pandemic.

Smelling political conspiracy over the colour of the PPE kits the CM further said that the state government had asked for one lakh PPE kits but received only 3000 kits.

Addressing the media at the state secretariat Nabanna, she said she was surprised by the choice of the colour and said that doctors don’t usually wear yellow kits but white or blue kits.

According to a report by Hindustan Times, She further said that the West Bengal government might not use the yellow kits.

Normally, yellow and orange colour PPE kits are used all over the world.

[Cain Marko]

Or the co-morbidities are higher than other countries?

For example, if you look at some of the Thoo-blighies, they are obese with at least two co-morbidities -> Diabetes and High Blood pressure. I will not be surprised if their Heart Health is also bad (a third co-morbidity).

Also look at their vaccination history. I suspect none of them might had a vaccination for BCG, that is given within 2 weeks of birth. They wont do it unless it has stamp of approval in the form of fatwa. Hope the govt keeps a track of active cases and their vaccination history.
Even in 2020 there is reluctance for polio vaccination in muslim majority malapuram in kerala.

https://www.opindia.com/2020/01/polio-v ... alappuram/

From what I understand, in NYC over 50% of fatalities had hypertension and 40% had diabetes. These 2 make one seriously vulnerable.

[chola]

Germany cuts side deal with Cheen. Brazil loses orders when US sent 20 planes to Cheen.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-countri ... 1586372608

As Countries Vie for Coronavirus Supplies, Germany Cuts Deal With China

Merkel and Xi agree for China to send large-scale shipments of equipment to Germany, with millions of masks already arriving

By Bojan Pancevski
Updated April 8, 2020 6:03 pm ET

BERLIN—Germany has struck a deal with China to receive large-scale shipments of supplies the country needs in its battle against the new coronavirus pandemic amid a global crunch in the market for medical equipment.

In a phone call last weekend, Chancellor Angela Merkel made the arrangement with Chinese President Xi Jinping, officials said Wednesday, paving the way for her government to buy what Germany officials say are high-quality gear from Chinese state-controlled manufacturers and other companies with ties to Beijing....

https://www.zawya.com/mena/en/life/stor ... N2BV2EMX2/

Mandetta told reporters that Brazil faces a "serious problem" when it comes to availability of ventilators as confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus rose to 13,717 in the country, with deaths rising to 667, the first time fatalities have exceeded 100 in 24 hours.

He said last week that China had canceled some Brazilian equipment orders when the U.S. government sent more than 20 cargo planes to the country to buy the same products.

[chola]

This is the same issue with our pharma and API. Every industrial process requires a critical input from Cheen.

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/he ... 054555.cms

New Delhi: Crucial personal protective equipment (PPE) suits being used mainly by health workers to tackle the Covid-19 outbreak are in short supply in India due to the shortage of a critical machine needed to stitch them up, with China putting the country on a 12-week wait for it.

“India has created sufficient fabric producing facilities and all required material. However, we have just about 150 hot air seam sealing machines to stitch the suits up,” a senior government official told ET. “The government has tried to source more machines from China but the Chinese government has asked for 12 weeks to supply them”. Germany is another country which could have supplied these machines but it is closed for now, the official added.

Given the current resources, India will be able to more than double the daily production of PPE suits to 30,000 by April 23 from the current 12,000. But the country needs another 200-300 hot air seam sealing machines to scale up its capacity to close to 100,000 a day, which is the target, the official added.
...

[Cain Marko]

Mandetta told reporters that Brazil faces a "serious problem" when it comes to availability of ventilators as confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus rose to 13,717 in the country, with deaths rising to 667, the first time fatalities have exceeded 100 in 24 hours.

So the climate hypothesis is dead then.

[Raja]

Or the co-morbidities are higher than other countries?

For example, if you look at some of the Thoo-blighies, they are obese with at least two co-morbidities -> Diabetes and High Blood pressure. I will not be surprised if their Heart Health is also bad (a third co-morbidity).

Also look at their vaccination history. I suspect none of them might had a vaccination for BCG, that is given within 2 weeks of birth. They wont do it unless it has stamp of approval in the form of fatwa. Hope the govt keeps a track of active cases and their vaccination history.
Even in 2020 there is reluctance for polio vaccination in muslim majority malapuram in kerala.

https://www.opindia.com/2020/01/polio-v ... alappuram/

BCG is not a standard in many other countries, as well.

The most simple answer is that our testing is more biased towards people with stronger symptoms than countries with significantly lower fatality rate. But anything is possible.

[pgbhat]

These ‘disease hunters’ developed a novel technique for tracking pandemics after 9/11, but lost funding right before COVID-19

But Mostashari’s website was still around, pulling in a feed of data from emergency rooms every day. So in early March, he started looking for incidents of patients complaining of flu-like symptoms that were outside the normal range for early spring. On March 4, he saw a spike in the data from New York that concerned him. For the next three days, he checked and rechecked the website to make sure it wasn’t a blip. By the fourth day, he knew something was wrong.

“Holy s---,” he recalled thinking. “Flu was going down, but patients were starting to come into the emergency department with a ferocity I hadn’t seen in 15 or 20 years.”

[arvin]

Also look at their vaccination history. I suspect none of them might had a vaccination for BCG, that is given within 2 weeks of birth. They wont do it unless it has stamp of approval in the form of fatwa. Hope the govt keeps a track of active cases and their vaccination history.
Even in 2020 there is reluctance for polio vaccination in muslim majority malapuram in kerala.

https://www.opindia.com/2020/01/polio-v ... alappuram/

From what I understand, in NYC over 50% of fatalities had hypertension and 40% had diabetes. These 2 make one seriously vulnerable.

The US does not have a BCG vaccination program either. While I agree above two causes of hypertension and diabetes does push a person towards infection, but then India with high diabetes spread should also have been affected the same way. But it is not, even after people breaking quarantine were roaming around in multiple states. Even in Kanika episode, the only infections were in close family that also in single digits.
Lockdown did help in bringing down numbers and must continue till situation stabilizes. But I feel BCG does have a role to play here.

[pgbhat]

https://twitter.com/DrShrikantK/status/ ... 7704491009

Vacancies in state IDSP units shows preparedness & expertise of states 4 fighting pandemic #Covid_19
10 state Epidemiologist positions are vacant! How we r going 2 fight without d most needed expertise in this situation?

[Cain Marko]

From what I understand, in NYC over 50% of fatalities had hypertension and 40% had diabetes. These 2 make one seriously vulnerable.

The US does not have a BCG vaccination program either. While I agree above two causes of hypertension and diabetes does push a person towards infection, but then India with high diabetes spread should also have been affected the same way. But it is not, even after people breaking quarantine were roaming around in multiple states. Even in Kanika episode, the only infections were in close family that also in single digits.
Lockdown did help in bringing down numbers and must continue till situation stabilizes. But I feel BCG does have a role to play here.

You may have a point but I was pointing to fatalities not cases. IOWs said conditions might not make one more vulnerable to infections but once infected could increase chances of aggravated situation.

[syam]

I too assumed (in earlier posts) a fatality rate for India, for under 2%. Maharashtra, Guj and MP are worrying, with fatality rates over 5%.

wuhan is the outcome for those who try to ride the wave and go on with life as usual. let's wait for next week, no one can hide something devastating as that.

[syam]

A lot of other countries testing this too but what has been missing is total response from Dr. HarshVardhan. He has been less than forthcoming. Never comes in front of any thing. Never articulates> Looks like pretty good performer but not a orator or even someone who takes advantage of our situation and takes leadership role.

Just ignores every thing ... May be we needed someone who could have demonstrated some leadership and articulate the experience.

That Harsha Vardhan dude is pappu of highest order. I said that before this outbreak. Whatever infra we have now is built by Nadda saab.

Don't expect any miracles from him. There is zero achievement to his name. In fact, he is typical Delhi fellow sailing with wind.

[yensoy]

Mandetta told reporters that Brazil faces a "serious problem" when it comes to availability of ventilators as confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus rose to 13,717 in the country, with deaths rising to 667, the first time fatalities have exceeded 100 in 24 hours.

So the climate hypothesis is dead then.

I won't go to that extreme. I think the hot weather and sunlight does impede the virus; however airconditioning with recirculating air, close proximity with infected, besides other downright unhygienic practices supports the spread of the virus. My belief is that Singapore and Dubai were hit early because of widespread airconditioning.

I too assumed (in earlier posts) a fatality rate for India, for under 2%. Maharashtra, Guj and MP are worrying, with fatality rates over 5%.

wuhan is the outcome for those who try to ride the wave and go on with life as usual. let's wait for next week, no one can hide something devastating as that.

Again my belief is that the fatality rate based on a simple division of dead by total infected is the wrong metric. The incoming numbers are increasing geometrically every day, and we are nowhere close to "steady state". I think we need to look at total infected some number of days, say 10 days, before and see how many have died. Usually people with virus symptoms don't die the day they are identified as virus positive - they take a week or 2 to go through the stages of the disease and suffer the consequence. By that metric (#dead at day n)/(#infected at day n-10), fatality rate is closer to 15%.

[syam]

Again my belief is that the fatality rate based on a simple division of dead by total infected is the wrong metric. The incoming numbers are increasing geometrically every day, and we are nowhere close to "steady state". I think we need to look at total infected some number of days, say 10 days, before and see how many have died. Usually people with virus symptoms don't die the day they are identified as virus positive - they take a week or 2 to go through the stages of the disease and suffer the consequence. By that metric (#dead at day n)/(#infected at day n-10), fatality rate is closer to 15%.

That's why I took only 2 countries as base. I am under assumption that both Germany and Korea have correct numbers of infected. It's not like the virus will come out of nowhere. if we can trace the infected before the virus reaches another person, we can get all of them. In fact, in ideal situation, we can solve the issue in 1 week. Sadly, we are blessed with very few bouts of idea situations. current snapshot of Germany and Korea is one of those..

[Karan M]

This is the same issue with our pharma and API. Every industrial process requires a critical input from Cheen.

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/he ... 054555.cms

New Delhi: Crucial personal protective equipment (PPE) suits being used mainly by health workers to tackle the Covid-19 outbreak are in short supply in India due to the shortage of a critical machine needed to stitch them up, with China putting the country on a 12-week wait for it.

“India has created sufficient fabric producing facilities and all required material. However, we have just about 150 hot air seam sealing machines to stitch the suits up,” a senior government official told ET. “The government has tried to source more machines from China but the Chinese government has asked for 12 weeks to supply them”. Germany is another country which could have supplied these machines but it is closed for now, the official added.

Given the current resources, India will be able to more than double the daily production of PPE suits to 30,000 by April 23 from the current 12,000. But the country needs another 200-300 hot air seam sealing machines to scale up its capacity to close to 100,000 a day, which is the target, the official added.
...

Read the thread's prior pages for this. The DRDO has come up with a submarine sealant to be repurposed for a similar purpose. If a machine is still needed, an Indian firm will likely make it as well. Jyoti CNC in Gujarat came out with a ventilator design and had it validated, in 10 days.
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 134_1.html

You think they can't make a freaking hot air seam sealing machine? They or the hundreds of other firms which work with DRDO on the missile program.

Anyhow DRDO has already addressed this issue.
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 246509.ece

This is the scale we are aiming for.

India has scaled up local production of PPEs to 65,000 from zero a fortnight back, and is currently manufacturing 12,000 suits every day, the official said. “Our target is to touch about 1.5 crore by June.” At present, there are 12 manufacturers in the country and an additional 12 are expected to contribute in the next few weeks.

All this was done despite a lockdown and all the associated hassles of worker non availability.

As regards APIs, India's reliance on PRC APIs will be reduced via a specific plan intended for the purpose.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 9408498693

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

Extraordinary times require even closer cooperation between friends. Thank you India and the Indian people for the decision on HCQ. Will not be forgotten! Thank you Prime Minister @NarendraModi for your strong leadership in helping not just India, but humanity, in this fight!

Can there be better PR than this on a Global scale?!!

ANI @ANI

Brazil Pres Jair Bolsonaro in his address to the nation thanked PM Modi for helping Brazil with Hydroxychroloquine. He said, "As an outcome of my direct conversation with Indian PM, we'll receive, raw materials to continue our production of Hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19".

Works for India.

[Karan M]

Exactly why not. This is a big bamboo up the posteriors of all the jackasses at NYT, Economist, WaPo etc. They will again try to spin this later, but for now enjoy the discomfiture of these scumbags

[syam]

MH added 162 new cases just few minutes back. With more than 140 in Mumbai alone. No wonder pappu Uddhav referring to wuhan yesterday.

[nam]

This is the same issue with our pharma and API. Every industrial process requires a critical input from Cheen.

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/he ... 054555.cms

Our press and media is a whining cat. Constantly looking for we cannot do this, becoz we don't have this, cannot do that becoz we don't have that.

It is not a rocket science in hot air sealing machine. Open one of those damn thing and give it to a engineering firm. How hard it is to build one whose job is to heat air to certain high degrees?

The reason why US is a superpower, the first lesson they take from every war like situation is, the need to have the required tech in the country. They say it loud and clear.

Here we get whining news report from "gov officals".

[pankajs]

Our media is full of air heads whose idea of a solution is "obaba ... omama"

However, there could be some issues with latency for product development. The fastest way to supplies is to get it from a confirmed supplier.

[milindc]

Since there is some indication that high temperatures might be mitigating the spread of the virus, is there any advisory to switch off air conditioners, especially in public places and offices. Since, closed places like offices and restaurants are where people are more likely to be close to each other and many people touching the same surfaces and things, it should be all the more reason to shut off ACs in them.

I think it is not temperature per se. Or even humidity. Both together may weaken the virus in that it might keep the transmissivity (R0) low OR humans do not dry out their throat making it susceptible to virus. Since I have seen people catch cold in peak summer as well.

UV may have a role to play and the solar radiation that is prominent in summer (April/May/June) has higher UV flux. Note that the pollution in cities reduces the solar radiation (and so do the dust, clouds etc).

Do we have BSL 3-4 labs that can do tests on virus at different places? It will be as simple as putting the virus in an open petridish out in the sun at different altitudes and measure after <n> time how many virus survive.

Multiple papers available online on Influenza virus survival in different climatic conditions. Per one paper, half life of flu virus is 9 minutes in direct sunlight. Huge degradation of virus in temperatures above 32C. Personally, my opinion is that given our density, we should have seen an explosion of cases by now if the virus had more than 1 hour half-life. It is degrading quickly in open environments in India given our luck (since its summer), and only transmitting in very close quarters.
Of course, even Ola can't help morons sharing a goat.

[nam]

I got curious if the volume of oxygen used by a person on a daily basis makes any difference.

So decided to check mountainous regions. Ladakh & Uttarakand: 14 & 35 cases so far.. no deaths. Very low example size, but interesting.

Or higher UV radiation in Ladakh?

Cleaner air followed by higher UV radiation means the virus may not survive long outside. Hence the R0 (transmissivity) decreases. Hence lower cases. Also Ladakh and Uttarakhand do not have extreme-dense and multiple population clusters!

I was wondering about the death rate. It is zero. Ofcourse the numbers are very small and given the low population, the rate of infection will be less.

However once a person is infected, does it help that the people living in higher regions have lungs which required less O2 compared to a person on sea level.

This is a question for the doctors here. Would any air breathing exercises like we have in yoga (or holding breath under water in swimming) help a normal person to train his lungs to survive on lower level of O2?

[pralay]

MH added 162 new cases just few minutes back. With more than 140 in Mumbai alone. No wonder pappu Uddhav referring to wuhan yesterday.

Besides political views, keep in mind that Mumbai has highest population density all over the world before you indulge in blame games. In future there must be permit system for anyone coming to work/live in cities like Mumbai in order to curtail their populations.

[chetak]

Donald Trump snaps at WHO — and India quietly sidestepped some of its advisories on virus

The public snub to the World Health Organisation (WHO) and a threat to cut its funding is characteristic of Donald Trump, and may not find an echo in New Delhi. However, the fact is when it comes to key aspects of COVID management, the government has politely sidestepped the periodic “advice” from the WHO and, instead, leaned on the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and the experience of several state governments — from Kerala and Uttar Pradesh to Rajasthan and Maharashtra. This despite the fact that the WHO has been, like with immunisation, TB and other neglected tropical diseases, closely working with the Centre and states on the novel coronavirus outbreak, and its staff are helping state governments ramp up training and capacity-building.

Most recently, on April 3, the government’s advisory on the use of masks while stepping out of the house was at variance with that of the WHO, which said this should be only for those who are symptomatic, health workers, or caregivers to COVID patients.

That’s not the only point where the government veered off the WHO track.

Consider:

On January 30, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that WHO did not recommend travel restrictions to China — in fact, it was opposed to such an idea. This despite the fact that the same day, the WHO’s International Health Regulations Emergency Committee raised a global alert on the need for containment, surveillance, detection, isolation, and even contact tracing. By this time, India’s first advisory on avoiding non-essential travel to China dated January 25, was already in place.

Three days after the WHO statement, India advised citizens to refrain from travel to China, a step up from its earlier advisory.

On March 16, Ghebreyesus said that the WHO’s key message is “test test test”. On March 22, ICMR head Dr Balram Bhargava said: “There will be no indiscriminate testing. Isolation, Isolation, isolation.”

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 9408498693

Can there be better PR than this on a Global scale?!!

ANI @ANI

Brazil Pres Jair Bolsonaro in his address to the nation thanked PM Modi for helping Brazil with Hydroxychroloquine. He said, "As an outcome of my direct conversation with Indian PM, we'll receive, raw materials to continue our production of Hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19".

Works for India.

https://twitter.com/JanThompsonFCO/stat ... 4859517952

Jan Thompson @JanThompsonFCO

Thank you @narendramodi and the Government of India for approving the export of paracetamol to the UK. Global cooperation is critical in the fight against #COVID19. UK and India have track record of working together as a #ForceforGood tackling global challenges.

[Aditya_V]

It is clear that now India and China, Pakistan, Turkey etc have taken opposite stand.

Many people who got the Virus into India never went to China or even Wuhan. Plus across the globe many who traveled to Europe/USA- never really went near Wuhan. From Nov-19 to Jan-20 China did not even lock down Wuhan. So the Virus is probably;y now across China in 4-5 months many people are carrying the Virus.

The Chinese strategy seems to be this virus is not fatal and probably like Swine flu. All this App based tracking is just gimmickry.

The Indian Govt. is probably taking a risk that they really don't know on how fatal the virus is wants to restrict its spread and gone the other extreme.

Both are a gamble. In Chinese case we will not know when huge number of people start reporting sick(probably in 10's of millions), if the Chinese hunch is correct then the Indian Government will be hauled over the coals for a wasteful lock down exercise.

Hindsight will be a good thing 1 year down the line but right probably know one knows if this virus is really lethal or one just carry on with it- I guess that is the crux, people carrying the virus in China are 81K, they are definitely by now in 100's of millions.

[pankajs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VB1vSMy1PLg
AIIMS Director Dr Randeep Guleria briefs on community transmission of COVID-19

[chetak]

Or higher UV radiation in Ladakh?

Cleaner air followed by higher UV radiation means the virus may not survive long outside. Hence the R0 (transmissivity) decreases. Hence lower cases. Also Ladakh and Uttarakhand do not have extreme-dense and multiple population clusters!

I was wondering about the death rate. It is zero. Ofcourse the numbers are very small and given the low population, the rate of infection will be less.

However once a person is infected, does it help that the people living in higher regions have lungs which required less O2 compared to a person on sea level.

This is a question for the doctors here. Would any air breathing exercises like we have in yoga (or holding breath under water in swimming) help a normal person to train his lungs to survive on lower level of O2?

people living at higher altitudes are acclimatized and so they are able to go about their normal duties in the less dense air.

many sportspeople train at higher altitudes to benefit their lungs and improve oxygen carrying capacity and so improve their performances at lower altitudes with higher levels of oxygen where they may actually compete.

[sudarshan]

Mandetta told reporters that Brazil faces a "serious problem" when it comes to availability of ventilators as confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus rose to 13,717 in the country, with deaths rising to 667, the first time fatalities have exceeded 100 in 24 hours.

So the climate hypothesis is dead then.

Most of Brazil is far south of the equator, especially their heavily populated cities. They are well into their autumn season, heading into winter - the sun moved north of the equator on March 21st. It's the equivalent of October in the northern hemisphere over there right now (April + 6 months).

[jpremnath]

For folks who dont understand tamil

1. The video camera holder is saying that the queue stretches all the way to food near police station

2. The video date seems to be March 27th based on comments

3. Dharavi has a lot of tamil migrants who are workers


In the bigger scheme of things MH,MP,KL and WB last seem to be the stragglers in dealing with the situation. This is just my constant tv news surfing anecdotal opinion

Kerala has actually turned a corner...The number of new cases per day are in low double digits like 12 and 13 for two days...And most importantly the recovered cases outnumber the new ones...Which means the curve has flattened and we will soon see a negative growth. But I would still wait for a few more days to make that claim..

What worries me is the graph of indias cases which is actually just shooting up and gives no indication of flattening out while even US, UK and Spain shows a marginal cooling of their curve. The fact that such a crippling lock down is not putting a break on the case growth doesn't bode well in the weeks to come..

[chola]

^^^ I think it is pretty safe to say that with the lockdown we are experiencing linear growth in new cases -- between 300 to 600 every day -- and will not experience the exponential growth in the US and Italy that saw cases jumping from hundreds to thousands to 10s of thousands?

[jpremnath]

Yes, but at the current rate of cases doubling every 4 days we will cross 50,000 well within 2 weeks.

[Deans]

Yes, but at the current rate of cases doubling every 4 days we will cross 50,000 well within 2 weeks.

At the current rate (6000 cases & 600 per day) we are doubling every 10 days - not 4.
Even the 600 cases/day has a significant contribution from TJ. (without it we are at 300/ day). I think the impact of TJ is largely over.

The remaining (300/day) figure can increase because of a larger base (more opportunities to infect) but should reduce due to:
- Lockdown is now starting to have an impact
- Kerala, Bhilwara etc are showing how it can be contained. They have flattened the curve and will soon have a reducing no of active cases.
- Faster testing, better contact tracing, faster hospital procedures and local lock-down (all this becomes better with experience)
- Onset of summer.

X factors: If Mumbai becomes the next New York, or another TJ equivalent in WB, which may be hiding cases.

Back of envelope : I'm looking at a reduction in no of new cases, by 14th April. A trend continuing till month end.
By end April, daily recovering cases should be more than new cases, leading to an overall fall in active cases.

[nam]

If I look at https://www.covid19india.org/

Today's recovery is 29. If I do a basic check March 19 had 27 positive and 20th had 60.

So today's recoveries must be either from batch of 19th or 20th March. Ofcourse there are other factors like the time taken for test etc. A roughly calculation of 20-21 days lag.

[Deans]

If I look at https://www.covid19india.org/

Today's recovery is 29. If I do a basic check March 19 had 27 positive and 20th had 60.

So today's recoveries must be either from batch of 19th or 20th March. Ofcourse there are other factors like the time taken for test etc. A roughly calculation of 20-21 days lag.

We have recovered 594 so far.
Upto 25th Mar, total cases were 650. 26 dead by 25th Mar.
So (putting it roughly) cases upto 25th March is either recovered or dead.

That gives a 15 day period between detection of a case and recovery. Cases started surging from 31 Mar, so we should see larger recoveries from
15th April. I think new case growth would have peaked before that.

[Karan M]

This is the same issue with our pharma and API. Every industrial process requires a critical input from Cheen.

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/he ... 054555.cms

Our press and media is a whining cat. Constantly looking for we cannot do this, becoz we don't have this, cannot do that becoz we don't have that.

It is not a rocket science in hot air sealing machine. Open one of those damn thing and give it to a engineering firm. How hard it is to build one whose job is to heat air to certain high degrees?

The reason why US is a superpower, the first lesson they take from every war like situation is, the need to have the required tech in the country. They say it loud and clear.

Here we get whining news report from "gov officals".

Indian agencies have proven that they can handle things on a war footing - again, I repeat, read the previous pages. India did exactly what you say the US should. They identified gaps and fixed them. If not for WHOs delays we could have started even earlier.

DRDO identified the lack of sealing tapes/machines early on, and provided a sealant glue they developed for submarine apps and used that instead.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ne ... 246509.ece

The Defence Research and Development Organisation has manufactured a bio-suit for medical professionals to combat Covid-19 using a special sealant based on the sealant used in submarine applications according to media reports

The sealant can be used as an alternative to seam sealing tape according to the DRDO, The Hindu reported.

The bio suits used presently are prepared using the special glue for seam sealing by an industry partner and has cleared the test at Southern India Textile Research Association (SITRA) Coimbatore, it said.

This is the ventilator developed in 10 days by an Indian firm, Jyoti CNC which makes machines far far more complex than a mere seam heating machine. Looks to have most of the essential controls required.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUzQmfCUYAA ... name=large

[nam]

Italian doctor confirming HCQ has helped. It has to be administer, as soon as the symptoms occur. Exactly similar to what ICMR has recommended.

The video in this twitter link has Italian doctors visiting the patient's home and giving them HCQ & anti-viral drugs as soon as they see symptoms.

https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1248242702434455552

[Karan M]

Our media is full of air heads whose idea of a solution is "obaba ... omama"

However, there could be some issues with latency for product development. The fastest way to supplies is to get it from a confirmed supplier.

Exactly. Is common sense so uncommon?

India is following a very sensible approach. We are negotiating with proven suppliers with huge ready stocks for immediate requirements, plus have placd orders already, and are also ramping up domestic manufacture with new DRDO tech as well as what supplies manufacturers already had for their existing process, and gear. Its literally what should be done.

Only flaw I can point to is this war was not started off in Jan itself. But in Jan the a-holes at WHO were still yacking about how fear mongering was unnecessary and there was no animal-to-human transmission. We lost February to product development - ideally that was when Modi should have cracked the whip on a bureaucracy which was not able to grasp the gravity of the situation. But by March 1st week, we had things starting to move. In one month, we have mobilized heavily. Yes, we could have done more. But then everyone else worldwide seems to have been caught equally off-guard.