Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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pankajs
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 10 Apr 2020 14:52

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1248243151543795715
Sidhant Sibal @sidhant

ICMR updates its testing strategy. Says all asymptomatic direct, high risk contacts of confirmed cases to be tested. #COVID.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby shaun » 10 Apr 2020 15:03

Deans wrote:Can someone figure out why - in Jan & Feb, were so few Chinese outside Wuhan infected ? The number of people travelling from Wuhan to other parts of China, through high speed rail and air, is exponentially more than those travelling abroad (who have since infected 1.6 million people and killed 100,000). There was no lockdown in other parts of China, which in theory, had large numbers of infected people from Hubei province, visiting them and vice versa ?
Is is just a coincidence that the Chinese lock-down began on the eve of Chinese new year, when most establishments are in any case, shut for several days ?

That's what some one pointed out before , comparing distance between Wuhan and Beijing , Shanghai nd rest of the affected world capitals ..some thing really fishy

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 10 Apr 2020 15:45

Looks like stabilizing

https://twitter.com/samirsaran/status/1 ... 9817047041
Samir Saran @samirsaran

#COVID19

Visit @orfonline

https://orfonline.org/covid19-tracke

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aditya_V » 10 Apr 2020 16:09

Deans wrote:Can someone figure out why - in Jan & Feb, were so few Chinese outside Wuhan infected ? The number of people travelling from Wuhan to other parts of China, through high speed rail and air, is exponentially more than those travelling abroad (who have since infected 1.6 million people and killed 100,000). There was no lockdown in other parts of China, which in theory, had large numbers of infected people from Hubei province, visiting them and vice versa ?
Is is just a coincidence that the Chinese lock-down began on the eve of Chinese new year, when most establishments are in any case, shut for several days ?


Thats why it defies logic, Chinese saying there are literally no cases outside Wuhan, a more plausible explanation is much of Chinese population has the Virus, but so far since not enough people have fallen severely sick or fatalities, the Chinese have the taken call the best strategy is to pretend nothing is there.

Only a sudden spurt in 10 crore or 20 crore adults not able to attend work will expose this strategy.

And how many of those who got the virus internationally traveled to Wuhan- very few, which means by now at least quarter of the Chinese population might be carrying the virus but a majority may be asymptomatic and will probably not know they are carrying the virus. Given the CCP H&D, only in the case exponential growth in people falling sick will more details come out. Till then they will keep a lid.

Nobody knew of Corona virus in Iran until mass burials began to happen.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 10 Apr 2020 16:18

Gyan wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:
1) HCQ and Azee seem to work well early in disease.. Once patient detoriates NOTHING seem work.. Risk / benefit ratio is certainly in favor of using these drugs..

2) Mumbai and Pune are huge populations with proportionately big population of morons , who are not co operating with govt efforts.. We can still see people giving useless reasons for going out.. Policemen doing everything they can but stopping community spread will require much more co operation from public..

3) We should not be discouraged by increasing positive cases.. They are expected.. Especially given our huge population, people living in close proximity and purposeful ignorance of few ..

4) As we are progressing towards communiy transmission stage its increasingly clear that COVID 19 is not going to die down.. This will be long battle .. Unless we acheive herd immunity secondary waves of infection are expected even if we contain initial outbreak.. At some point it will become impossible to keep people locked inside..

5) One important goal of lockdown was to keep R0 as low as possible.. For those who don't know about it, R0 is average number of individuals infected by an infectious case during infectious period, while in totally susceptible population..
R0 is important indicator used to calculate Pc, which is proportion of persons that must be immune to reduce effective R0 bellow 1.. This will halt transmission..
Pc= 1-1/R0
R0 is high in both Mumbai and pune.. While In other parts of MH Govt is successful in keeping R0 very low.. After initial detection aggressive contact tracing and social distancing further transmission was effectively stopped..



In India, we do not seem to be adding Zinc to the combination of Hydroxychloroquine & Azithromycin. Any specific Reason for that?


Sir,

* It is not included in any Covid 19 protocol in India i am aware of..Treatment is mostly supportive..

* Effectiveness of zinc in Respiratory viral infections is not conclusively proven.. There is no harm in adding it though , multivitamin / trace minerals are routinely used in India for other infectious diseases too..

* Zinc deficiency is common in India especially in vegetarians.. Diet rich in corn, rice , cereals contains phytatets.. phytates reduce absorption of zn.. deficiency of Zn is common in alcoholics..

* Direct anti viral effect of zinc is proven in experimental studies.. These are in vitro studies.. intracellular concentration required to achieve antiviral effect is very high and not possible physiologically even with high dose suppliments..

* Accumulation of metals inside cells to kill pathogens is well known in bacterial/fungal infections.. But Unproven in viral infections..

* However zinc can play supportive role..It is second most common trace element in body after iron. It is part of 10% proteins and about 2000 enzymes in body.. It plays important role in DNA and RNA synthesis.. As multiplication of immune cells to fight virus involves significant DNA /RNA synthesis , adequate supply of zn is desirable..
Last edited by DrRatnadip on 10 Apr 2020 17:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 10 Apr 2020 16:26

an interesting data. looks like BRI was the main road for Corona virus

CASES DEATHS
BRI countries 406001 27411
Non-BRI countries 1175239 66757
China 81907 3336

vishvak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vishvak » 10 Apr 2020 16:44

For the record, a snippet from a news channel.
https://youtu.be/CIHWaaJNktQ

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjayc » 10 Apr 2020 16:47

1st documentary movie on the origin of CCP virus, Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus .. very well made. Good watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gdd7dtD ... oyKr69MKjY

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 10 Apr 2020 17:16

Deans wrote:Can someone figure out why - in Jan & Feb, were so few Chinese outside Wuhan infected ? The number of people travelling from Wuhan to other parts of China, through high speed rail and air, is exponentially more than those travelling abroad (who have since infected 1.6 million people and killed 100,000). There was no lockdown in other parts of China, which in theory, had large numbers of infected people from Hubei province, visiting them and vice versa ?
Is is just a coincidence that the Chinese lock-down began on the eve of Chinese new year, when most establishments are in any case, shut for several days ?

1. Figures from China are hugely fudged, including from Wuhan. The infected is probably under-reported by 10X (my guess).
2. Wuhan city has about 11 million population. Three days before lock-down, about 5 million left the city to their native towns to celebrate Chinese new year. THis was a statement made by the mayor of Wuhan, one day before or after the loackdown was put in place.
3. For a city of 11 million with a virus making an appearance roughly Dec 12, to Jan 20 (when the Wuhanese left Wuhan for rest of China), that 5 weeks for the virus to run uncontrolled in a city that has not been alarmed/alerted to social distancing, the infection rates ought to be in the hundreds of thousands, may be millions. These would have been spread in rest of Hubei, Where most of the workers would have gone home for holidays. MAny cities/towns in Hubei province were locked down. All of Hubei was alarmed/guarded after Wuhan lock-down. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Hubei_lockdowns
3. Shanghai and Beijing also had lockdowns, practically speaking, even if they were not publicly declared. Videos have been posted on this very thread (one by chola) around late JAn./early Feb showing empty metro stations and streets in Shanghai, their financial capital. I saw videos of empty streest in Beijing on TV news.

MAybe after Wuhan lockdown, rest of China was locked down quickly and so they had fewer cases than Wuhan (Wuhan was under-reported, so I think rest of China, barring Hubei, would have had fewer cases and after under-reporting, even fewer cases than that). All this is my conjencture.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 10 Apr 2020 18:06

pankajs wrote:Looks like stabilizing
https://twitter.com/samirsaran/status/1 ... 9817047041

I sure hope so. But I am not so sure. We will probably stabilize at half to one million cases given the fact that we are more populous. At doubling every 6 days, it will take 6-7 weeks.

Many of our states will stabilize before that. Kerala is one - first to report cases and will be first to level off. TN will follow quickly because of the efforts at tracing the TJ's; also TN is doing a double quarantine (28) days before clearing suspects. Karnataka is showing rapid recovery, a little faster than it should be IMHO but then neither am I a doctor or in administration so what do I know! Gujarat showed less diligence till today when it's reporting a huge increase in the number of cases. WB is still asleep - Didi is almost denying the TJ's spread in the state along with the virus - I don't buy their numbers - WB should be reporting between 500 and 1000 cases by now. Soon enough they will be forced to do so. MH has to grapple with Dharavi - not just for Corona but in the future too - best would be to use this opportunity to clear the slum and resettle the majority of dwellers elsewhere.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 10 Apr 2020 18:25

hanumadu wrote:
nam wrote:
More testing numbers. 16K tests.

Overall the infection rate to tested is still around 5%

I am planning to follow https://www.mohfw.gov.in/.

Crowdsource website, doesn't seem to data which are reviewed. The difference in number of deaths are around 70! I can understand positive cases, but the number of death should not have such a difference.

I find it interesting that all other country's data are from their government, but for India it is from crowd-sourced sites!


http://covidindiaupdates.in/

This site has more details. They claim their data is from mohfw.

No need to claim. It's the official site of ICMR's National Institute of Epidemiology.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby wig » 10 Apr 2020 19:08

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/ ... ramar.html

COVID-19 will peak in mid-September, could affect 80% of India: Amarinder

excerpted
He also referred to a report prepared by PGI, Chandigarh, which said that the disease is expected to peak in mid-September, when around 58 per cent of the people in the country are likely to be infected. He said the state is gearing up for the different phases of the spread of the disease. In the first phase, it aims at having 2,000 beds and the necessary equipment, which would be scaled up to 10,000 beds, which will be increased to 30,000 beds and then to 1 lakh beds.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 10 Apr 2020 19:24

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7788&start=4120#p2426654
pankajs wrote:Bad news ... this time from J&K.
https://twitter.com/ShujaUH/status/1248210365302763520
Shuja ul haq @ShujaUH

Officials reveal that there are close to 650 cases with high suspicion of the corona virus in Kashmir. High viral load. Brace up for more bad news. Let us stay at home.

After the bad news from J&K more bad news from Rajasthan
https://twitter.com/1stIndiaNews/status ... 6607261696
First India News Rajasthan @1stIndiaNews

#CoronaVirusUpdate: #Jaipur में कोरोना से बड़ी खबर

कल रामगंज व ईर्द-गिर्द के लिए थे 576 सैंपल, इनमें से जांच में 25 आए पॉजिटिव,318 की रिपोर्ट आई नेगेटिव, 125 की रिपोर्ट आना बाकी
आज की रिपोर्ट ने बढ़ाई चिंता
#CoronavirusOutbreak #coronavirus #COVIDー19 @RajCMO

Translation - Google - default

There were 576 samples for Ramganj and around yesterday, out of which 25 positives came in the investigation, 318 reports came negative, 125 reports were yet to come.

Today's report raised concern
#CoronavirusOutbreak#coronavirus#COVIDー19@RajCMO
Out of a sample of 343 about 25 tested positive.

Looks like a case of community transmission in the area.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 10 Apr 2020 19:38

Re Ratnadip Dr.

Thx for taking trouble to write such a detailed & informative post on the issue of Zinc Supplements.
Last edited by Gyan on 10 Apr 2020 19:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 10 Apr 2020 19:45

pankajs wrote:Bad news ... this time from J&K.
https://twitter.com/ShujaUH/status/1248210365302763520
Shuja ul haq @ShujaUH

Officials reveal that there are close to 650 cases with high suspicion of the corona virus in Kashmir. High viral load. Brace up for more bad news. Let us stay at home.


Kashmir Valley is a prime candidate to be like US or Europe if the temperature theory holds true. And they want to take out funeral processions of slain terrorists. I think we should kill a few more terrorists and hand over the bodies so they can take their janaja with a huge gathering. And Kashmir is easy to seal from the rest of the country. Let them and their fellow tablighis in India experience what it means to disobey authorities during corona.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 10 Apr 2020 19:49

As regards China, I posted on this thread only one month back that reports from China talk about lakhs dead & millions infected. Per my estimate, China would easily have 1.5 lakh dead, 15 million infected.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 10 Apr 2020 20:05

hanumadu wrote:
pankajs wrote:Bad news ... this time from J&K.
https://twitter.com/ShujaUH/status/1248210365302763520
Shuja ul haq @ShujaUH

Officials reveal that there are close to 650 cases with high suspicion of the corona virus in Kashmir. High viral load. Brace up for more bad news. Let us stay at home.


Kashmir Valley is a prime candidate to be like US or Europe if the temperature theory holds true. And they want to take out funeral processions of slain terrorists. I think we should kill a few more terrorists and hand over the bodies so they can take their janaja with a huge gathering. And Kashmir is easy to seal from the rest of the country. Let them and their fellow tablighis in India experience what it means to disobey authorities during corona.


This is a good opportunity to isolate Kashmir from Jammu and Ladakh, not just from India. And it can be done to protect the population from Corona, so no ulterior motive can be construed. The remaining political prisoners can also be freed. One more lost tourist season will make the valley desperate for normalcy, once this is over.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 10 Apr 2020 20:15

Blood tests show 14% of people are now immune to covid-19 in one town in Germany


Surveys of who has been infected show the pandemic still has far to go before it burns out

How many people have really been infected by the coronavirus? In one German town a preliminary answer is in: about 14%.

by Antonio Regalado
April 9, 2020


The municipality of Gangelt, near the border with the Netherlands, was hard hit by covid-19 after a February carnival celebration drew thousands to the town, turning it into an accidental petri dish.You can read our most essential coverage of the coronavirus/covid-19 outbreak for free, and also sign up for our coronavirus newsletter. But please consider subscribing to support our nonprofit journalism.

Now, after searching blood from 500 residents for antibodies to the virus, scientists at a nearby university say they have determined that one in seven have been infected and are therefore “immune.”Some of those people would have had no symptoms at all.Their brief report (PDF), posted online in German, has big implications for how soon that town, and the rest of the world, can come out from lockdown.

“To me it looks like we don’t yet have a large fraction of the population exposed,” says Nicholas Christakis, a doctor and social science researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive. That means there is a lot more to go even in a hard-hit part of Germany.”Here's why the true infection rate in a region matters: the bigger it is, the less pain still lies ahead. Eventually, when enough people are immune—maybe half to three-quarters of us—the virus won’t be able to spread further, a concept called herd immunity.

But the German town isn’t close to that threshold yet, and to Christakis the preliminary figure is “unfortunate” because it means the virus still has more damage to do.

The German report is among the first to survey a population for evidence of prior infection, data that scientists need to determine how far the pandemic has spread, what the real death rate is, and how many people show no symptoms at all.

“It’s very preliminary, but it’s the kind of study we desperately need,” says Christakis, who believes the US should test as many as 200,000 people, from big cities like New York to small towns in the Midwest. “This is crucial to quantify a host of basic parameters.”

Globally, the official case count of covid-19 is more than 1.5 million people, but that reckoning mostly includes people who seek medical help and get tested. The true number of people infected, including those without symptoms and who don’t get tested, is far higher.

More data from "sero-surveys" should be available soon; sources include US hospitals. On April 6, Stanford Medicine announced it had launched its own serology test and had begun screening doctors, nurses, and others for antibodies.

“The test will enable us to determine which health-care workers might be at low risk for working with covid-19 patients, as well as understanding disease prevalence in our communities,” said spokesperson Lisa Kim.

Early results from hospitals are already circulating among some experts, says Christakis, who thinks these data will get us “closer to the truth” about how far the infection has spread in US cities. “If you see 5% positive in your health-care workers, that means infection rates probably aren’t higher than that in your city,” he says.

The survey in Germany was carried out by virologist Hendrik Streeck and several others at the University Hospital in Bonn, who say they approached about 1,000 residents of Gangelt to give blood, have their throats swabbed, and fill out a survey.

They found that 2% of residents were actively infected by the coronavirus and a total of 14% had antibodies, indicating a prior infection.
This group of people, they say, “can no longer be infected with SARS-CoV-2,” as the virus is known to scientists.  

As the virus spreads, it sends a certain percentage of people to the hospital and a few of those to ICUs; a portion of those will die. One of the biggest unanswered questions is exactly what percentage of infected people the coronavirus is killing.From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%.

The authors explain that the difference in the calculations boils down to how many people are actually infected but haven’t been counted because they have mild or no symptoms.

The presence of previously infected people in the community, Streeck and colleagues believe, will reduce the speed at which the virus can move in the area. They also outline a process by which social distancing can be slowly unwound, especially given hygienic measures, like handwashing, and isolating and tracking the sick. They think if people avoid getting big doses of the virus—which can happen in hospitals or via close contact with someone infected—fewer people will become severely ill, “while at the same time developing immunity” that can help finally end the outbreak.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rahul M » 10 Apr 2020 20:22

wig wrote:https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/04/10/covid-19-will-peak-in-mid-september-could-affect-80-of-india-amarinderamar.html

COVID-19 will peak in mid-September, could affect 80% of India: Amarinder

excerpted
He also referred to a report prepared by PGI, Chandigarh, which said that the disease is expected to peak in mid-September, when around 58 per cent of the people in the country are likely to be infected. He said the state is gearing up for the different phases of the spread of the disease. In the first phase, it aims at having 2,000 beds and the necessary equipment, which would be scaled up to 10,000 beds, which will be increased to 30,000 beds and then to 1 lakh beds.

It's clarified that PGI, Chandigarh isn't aware that any expert/faculty member from Dept of Community Medicine&School of Public Health of the Institute carried out any study that COVID19 may peak by mid September & can infect 58% of country’s population: PRO, PGIMER, #Chandigarh
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1248583598162108417?s=19

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 10 Apr 2020 20:34



Ooh goody, they started antibody testing. If 14% of a town is immune after one carnival, isn't that encouraging? Looks like antibody testing is ongoing in the USA as well.

Wonder how accurate the results are - can the studies distinguish between antibodies for various coronavirii? And can it isolate antibodies to the current strain?

The study seems to peg the fatality rate at 0.37%.

They think if people avoid getting big doses of the virus—which can happen in hospitals or via close contact with someone infected—fewer people will become severely ill, “while at the same time developing immunity” that can help finally end the outbreak.


That's what I was suggesting earlier, but I was told that even one virus particle would be enough to overwhelm the system by creating enough copies of itself (theoretically of course) so it wasn't a good idea.

Boris Johnson exposed himself to a big dose, deliberately shaking hands with infected folks and boasting about it. Hope he fully recovers.

“To me it looks like we don’t yet have a large fraction of the population exposed,” says Nicholas Christakis, a doctor and social science researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive. That means there is a lot more to go even in a hard-hit part of Germany.”Here's why the true infection rate in a region matters: the bigger it is, the less pain still lies ahead. Eventually, when enough people are immune—maybe half to three-quarters of us—the virus won’t be able to spread further, a concept called herd immunity.


Are the experts in two minds? The above indicates that this thing isn't that contagious. One lament is that it is too contagious, the other is that only 14% are positive even after carnivals and festivals. The "half to three-quarters" figure comes from estimates of R0 between 2 to 4. Whereas if the contagiousness is lower, that means R0 is lower, so maybe half the population doesn't have to be immune for herd immunity to be achieved. For example, if R0 is actually estimated to be 1.4, then 1-1/R0 is 29%, so that would be the fraction that would need to be immune for herd immunity.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 10 Apr 2020 20:48

Deans wrote:Can someone figure out why - in Jan & Feb, were so few Chinese outside Wuhan infected ? The number of people travelling from Wuhan to other parts of China, through high speed rail and air, is exponentially more than those travelling abroad (who have since infected 1.6 million people and killed 100,000). There was no lockdown in other parts of China, which in theory, had large numbers of infected people from Hubei province, visiting them and vice versa ?
Is is just a coincidence that the Chinese lock-down began on the eve of Chinese new year, when most establishments are in any case, shut for several days ?


The whole country was on lockdown, Wuhan just had a stricter lockdown. In Wuhan nobody except essential workers was allowed to leave his/her dwelling. For the rest of China it was more like Western style lockdown where people were allowed to leave for essentials as long as they wore a mask. Strict lockdown of the hotspot (unlike the NY or Lombardia lockdown that allows people to flee everywhere else in the country/continent), a coordinated nation-wide lockdown (unlike the staggered lockdowns in Europe and the US where some parts are still not on lockdown), and universal compulsory mask wearing (unlike anywhere in the west) are big differences.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby jpremnath » 10 Apr 2020 21:05

896 new cases in the last 24 hours...Much higher than the 740 odd yesterday and the 600 day before. I think things are going out of hand. The TJ meet single handedly destroyed the entire efforts of the country...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 10 Apr 2020 21:19

antibody testing is not fool proof, many who recovered from illness have shown undetectable antibody titre in blood, implying that body is fighting virus by other immunity mechanism as well.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 10 Apr 2020 21:20

jpremnath wrote:896 new cases in the last 24 hours...Much higher than the 740 odd yesterday and the 600 day before. I think things are going out of hand. The TJ meet single handedly destroyed the entire efforts of the country...


out of 7000 cases from India, 1500 tested + in last 48 hrs itself

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aditya_V » 10 Apr 2020 21:28

IndraD wrote:antibody testing is not fool proof, many who recovered from illness have shown undetectable antibody titre in blood, implying that body is fighting virus by other immunity mechanism as well.


obviously you can't check if every single virus has been killed off, what are the chances that the virus is lying dormant somewhere in the body in some organ or something waiting to emerge when the body is struck by some flu or mild infection? what are chances these people will become asymptomatic spreaders of the virus?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 10 Apr 2020 21:29

jpremnath wrote:896 new cases in the last 24 hours...Much higher than the 740 odd yesterday and the 600 day before. I think things are going out of hand. The TJ meet single handedly destroyed the entire efforts of the country...


The TJ did do significant damage. However, total cases are doubling every 5 days, and IMHO cases would have doubled every 3 days. Another 2 weeks more of a lock down are needed, but the damage to the livelihood of people is of grave concern. Perhaps some states and hotspots will have to be kept closed longer.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 10 Apr 2020 21:30

re HCQ
several trials , mostly involving small patient group case series type indicate HCQ works when started EARLY in the course of illness. Once disease is set in, nothing works, that is why ITU are struggling with mind numbing mortality figures.
Here family doctors and general physicians have big role to play who can start HCQ early in the course of illness.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby jpremnath » 10 Apr 2020 21:52

Mort Walker wrote:
jpremnath wrote:896 new cases in the last 24 hours...Much higher than the 740 odd yesterday and the 600 day before. I think things are going out of hand. The TJ meet single handedly destroyed the entire efforts of the country...


The TJ did do significant damage. However, total cases are doubling every 5 days, and IMHO cases would have doubled every 3 days. Another 2 weeks more of a lock down are needed, but the damage to the livelihood of people is of grave concern. Perhaps some states and hotspots will have to be kept closed longer.


I think locking districts than entire would be a better strategy...Even Maharashtra has so many districts with minimal or no cases. Locking down states for prolonged period is gonna get the economy and will take years for the country to recover.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 10 Apr 2020 21:56

IndraD wrote:re HCQ
several trials , mostly involving small patient group case series type indicate HCQ works when started EARLY in the course of illness. Once disease is set in, nothing works, that is why ITU are struggling with mind numbing mortality figures.
Here family doctors and general physicians have big role to play who can start HCQ early in the course of illness.


Most GPs have closed their OPDs.. HCQ is almost vanished from medical stores.. Its unavailable in medicals.. Even if doctors prescribe it , pt is unlikely to get it.. No reported shortage in govt setups..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 10 Apr 2020 22:01

^^
IIRC, GOI did order a new lot, about 1 crore of 10 crore, for supplies through Jan Aushadi kendras. People with genuine requirement for Malaria or Lupus or Arithritis can get it there with prescription.

OTOH, for those with COVID kind of sympton will have to go to a governmental hospital for checkup and medicine.

Here is the link
https://theprint.in/india/modi-govt-to- ... me/397302/
Modi govt to procure 1 cr hydroxychloroquine tablets for its affordable medicine scheme

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Shanmukh » 10 Apr 2020 22:07

More than 1K cases coming just today, with 410 of them from Maharashtra. I am afraid Maharashtra may have got into the community spread stage. This is going to be really hard to contain now.

https://www.covid19india.org/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 10 Apr 2020 22:19

Perhaps the Chinese mostly travel to their villages for the lunar new year. Easy Transmission may well be an urban phenomenon.
Also fatalities in the rural areas would be much easier to hide for the CCP.

Viral load as an inoculum is only important for one virus particle to replicate ie statistically. These large exposures such as BoJo may be more related to exposure to different RNA sequences. Possible that there are antigenic differences, other mechanisms of immune evasion, viral fecundity (replication efficiency) come into play IF this observation is correct.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 10 Apr 2020 22:25

Shanmukh wrote:More than 1K cases coming just today, with 410 of them from Maharashtra. I am afraid Maharashtra may have got into the community spread stage. This is going to be really hard to contain now.

https://www.covid19india.org/


I agree.. It will take heroic efforts to contain disease in Mumbai and Pune

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 10 Apr 2020 22:36

They think if people avoid getting big doses of the virus—which can happen in hospitals or via close contact with someone infected—fewer people will become severely ill,


Countries should try to get the background data of people who is currently positive to understand better on how they infected. What sort of work they do? Are they in closed space more often? Did they get infected through a family member?

Doctors should also gather information on the viral load of the people who get tested positive.

I always found the asymptomatic spread of the Chinese virus not so easy to understand.

When you first get infected, you will only pass on a less viral load to others. The virus would need to replicate more to infect a load. Wouldn't the body's defence mechanism kick in right away? in some form?

Does the body wait for certain level of viral load before it reacts? Or the virus is replicating in areas within nose or throat, which does not cause anitbody reaction?

How does it manage to stay hidden for up to 7 days, but have created enough viral load to infect others? I have read it can infect people from 3 days previous to onset on symptoms.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 10 Apr 2020 22:43

With 1000+ cases today, (worse than I expected), I don't see the lock-down being lifted. The best I think we can expect is a partial lifting, so some economic activity restarts - with a more complete lock-down in the hot spots. My concern is we don't have the resources to enforce a complete lock-down, since daily wage earners will be increasingly desperate. In trying to do so, we cripple the economy to a point where recovery takes far longer and it causes irreversible damage to some sectors. Hoping we arrive at a suitable compromise.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Shanmukh » 10 Apr 2020 23:00

Deans wrote:With 1000+ cases today, (worse than I expected), I don't see the lock-down being lifted. The best I think we can expect is a partial lifting, so some economic activity restarts - with a more complete lock-down in the hot spots. My concern is we don't have the resources to enforce a complete lock-down, since daily wage earners will be increasingly desperate. In trying to do so, we cripple the economy to a point where recovery takes far longer and it causes irreversible damage to some sectors. Hoping we arrive at a suitable compromise.


Wait a second - they reduced the number by ~200 in Maharashtra. Was that a misreporting earlier (now it is showing 800+) for today.

Anyway, there are some heartening and some disheartening factors. The states that were infected first (Karnataka and Kerala) are showing rapid decrease in the number of cases now (10 in Karnataka, 7 in Kerala). Even Andhra and Telangana seem to be slowing down rapidly now after the initial spurt due to the Tablighis (16 in Telangana, 18 in Andhra). The bulk of the 800+ cases today have come from Maharashtra (210), Delhi (183), Gujarat (116), Rajasthan (98), and Tamizh Nadu (77). Is it a sign that the infection in some states has been brought under control? Can these states which have controlled the infection be released from quarantine earlier?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 10 Apr 2020 23:59

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W_Od1zoo50
Meaning of the ICMR corona findings & some surprises from Germany's Heinsburg


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 11 Apr 2020 00:13

Shanmukh wrote:Anyway, there are some heartening and some disheartening factors. The states that were infected first (Karnataka and Kerala) are showing rapid decrease in the number of cases now (10 in Karnataka, 7 in Kerala). Even Andhra and Telangana seem to be slowing down rapidly now after the initial spurt due to the Tablighis (16 in Telangana, 18 in Andhra). The bulk of the 800+ cases today have come from Maharashtra (210), Delhi (183), Gujarat (116), Rajasthan (98), and Tamizh Nadu (77). Is it a sign that the infection in some states has been brought under control? Can these states which have controlled the infection be released from quarantine earlier?

Kerala and karnataka were the states where the cases was first reported and hence they had strict distancing rules even before other states. I remember my office being locked down from 12th March in Bangalore. This js why Bangalore has not turned into a case like Mumbai.
Maharashtra seems to be the main place for india. Gujarat might just be collateral damage due to proximity with mumbai. TN is surprising but that and rajasthan should have it in control soon. I am very worried about Maharashtra, gujrat due to travellers to Mumbai and MP due to travellers to Pune.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Kaivalya » 11 Apr 2020 00:49

^^^

I only hope that the data is reported along with metrics like

1. Related to Known source TJ, International travel etc
2. Within containment zones or previously isolated
3. Trace/travel history known/unknown for the last 1month
4. Days of symptoms

To answer some of the questions asked. TN that is close to 90% TJ went 1 step back to say "single source" which makes it vague to understand anything about the questions raised. I hope the decision makers have enough data

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Lisa » 11 Apr 2020 01:07

DrRatnadip wrote:
Gyan wrote:

In India, we do not seem to be adding Zinc to the combination of Hydroxychloroquine & Azithromycin. Any specific Reason for that?


Sir,

* It is not included in any Covid 19 protocol in India i am aware of..Treatment is mostly supportive..

* Effectiveness of zinc in Respiratory viral infections is not conclusively proven.. There is no harm in adding it though , multivitamin / trace minerals are routinely used in India for other infectious diseases too..

* Zinc deficiency is common in India especially in vegetarians.. Diet rich in corn, rice , cereals contains phytatets.. phytates reduce absorption of zn.. deficiency of Zn is common in alcoholics..

* Direct anti viral effect of zinc is proven in experimental studies.. These are in vitro studies.. intracellular concentration required to achieve antiviral effect is very high and not possible physiologically even with high dose suppliments..

* Accumulation of metals inside cells to kill pathogens is well known in bacterial/fungal infections.. But Unproven in viral infections..

* However zinc can play supportive role..It is second most common trace element in body after iron. It is part of 10% proteins and about 2000 enzymes in body.. It plays important role in DNA and RNA synthesis.. As multiplication of immune cells to fight virus involves significant DNA /RNA synthesis , adequate supply of zn is desirable..


Zinc's use in flus and colds is an old story, over 30+ years old. We have been selling it for that long at least. The earliest reference was from Texas,

https://aac.asm.org/content/aac/25/1/20.full.pdf

Its use was mainly in the form of a lozenge of Zinc Gluconate at a 23 mg dose and NOT an ingested zinc. We ran out of zinc lozenges in one week flat and have not been able to restock for the last month. No manufacturer has any stock. Have never read any studies of ingested zinc having a correlation with reducing the replicatication rate of a virus, ie its not as such an antiviral but more as an inhibitor as the virus's ability to grow is curtailed.

P.S. If you search online you will find many more such studies

https://www.google.com/search?q=texas+z ... e&ie=UTF-8


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