Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Ambar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 09 May 2020 20:32

Arent the flights suspended ? How are they even landing from Middle east ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby mukkan » 09 May 2020 21:51

It is part of Vande Bharat Mission: evacuation process
India announced it will begin phased repatriation of its citizens stranded abroad from May 7. The government said that Air India will operate 64 flights from May 7 to May 13 to bring back around 15,000 Indian nationals stranded abroad amid the COVID-19-induced lockdown

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/vande-bharat-mission-india-brings-back-its-citizens-in-biggest-airlift/vande-bharat-mission/slideshow/75643406.cms


Ambar wrote:Arent the flights suspended ? How are they even landing from Middle east ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 09 May 2020 22:05

Article was translated using Google Translate.
Federal government doubts US thesis on the development of the corona virus

Secretary of State Pompeo sees "overwhelming evidence" that the coronavirus is from a Chinese laboratory. According to SPIEGEL information, the federal government considers this allegation to be a diversion.

By Matthias Gebauer
08.05.2020, 08.05 a.m.

The federal government has doubts about the US claim that the corona virus originated in a Chinese laboratory.

According to information from SPIEGEL, the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) has last week with all partners of the secret service network "Five Eyes", which includes the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, according to evidence for that from the US government widespread laboratory thesis asked. None of the secret services wanted to confirm the thesis that, in addition to Trump, especially US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spreads.

Previously, the NDR had already doubts about the "Five Eyes" -Geheimdienstpapier reports , said to have been criticized in the China sharply for dealing with the crisis Corona. It could possibly be a targeted false report .

Pompeo said last weekend that he saw "overwhelming evidence" for the lab thesis. Earlier, US President Trump had sparked speculation about it .

In an internal note for Secretary of Defense Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the US claims are classified as a calculated diversion. With the laboratory theory, the US president is trying to "distract from his own mistakes and direct the anger of the Americans towards China," the confidential dossier said.

Scientists believe it is much more likely that Sars-CoV-2 has been transmitted to humans from bats via another animal and through the wildlife trade. China therefore banned the trade in wild animals with a new law in March.

However, according to the BND, China has pushed the World Health Organization (WHO) to delay a global warning after the virus has broken out at the highest level. On January 21, China's leader Xi Jinping asked WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to hold back information about a human-to-human transmission and to delay a pandemic warning.

The BND estimates that China's information policy has lost four to six weeks to fight the virus worldwide.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 09 May 2020 23:03

Knowing China, they must have conducted large scale human trials (with great success, given how they managed to bring the spread to a dead halt) before engaging in token animal trials.
Monkey business, I tell you..

While the government and scientists all over the world are trying to develop an effective vaccine against the deadly coronavirus, which has claimed lakhs of lives, Chinese scientists have claimed that they have successfully tested the country's first vaccine against COVID 19 in monkeys, which is a significant development in the race to find a cure for the COVID 19 virus.
According to the reports, PiCoVacc, an inactivated COVID 19 vaccine candidate made by Beijing-based Sinovac Biotech, has shown promising results as the experimental vaccine could help protect the rhesus macaques, a type of monkey originating in India, from the virus.


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/lif ... 644778.cms

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Leonard » 09 May 2020 23:20

The Chinese STARTED playing with Manipulation of the Corona Virus RIght AFTER -- SAR's -- See papers published in LANCET in 2008 ..

Image is HERE --

https://twitter.com/AviSolomon8/status/1258629838858063873

If ANYBODY has access to LANCET -- Please GATHER this paper -- so we can make a PDF and spread it everywhere ...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aarvee » 10 May 2020 09:55

Leonard wrote:The Chinese STARTED playing with Manipulation of the Corona Virus RIght AFTER -- SAR's -- See papers published in LANCET in 2008 ..

Image is HERE --

https://twitter.com/AviSolomon8/status/1258629838858063873

If ANYBODY has access to LANCET -- Please GATHER this paper -- so we can make a PDF and spread it everywhere ...


Saar, this paper is not from Lancet, journal of virology, her is the link. https://jvi.asm.org/content/82/4/1899

Also, these sort of experiments are not really uncommon. Every lab does it. PC4 labs work on PC4 pathogens etc. The same kind of work has happened on all sort of viruses, you name it. Polio, smallpox (yes small, not chicken), SARS, bird flu etc. Just normal scientific studies.

And you can see that it was done in collaboration with an Australian lab, not just WIV.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 10 May 2020 10:11

Active cases in Telangana decreased from 450 to 383 in the last 4 days. Considering there is a metro like Hyd, what are they doing right that some other states are not doing?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 10 May 2020 10:24

^ Simple explanation is that Telangana has not been testing to the extent other states have been.

Wildly varying data across states

In states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and a few others, roughly 80% of the active Covid-19 cases are asymptomatic, according to data collated by TOI. However seven large states - including Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Punjab - and all of those in the North-east have recorded zero asymptomatic cases.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 10 May 2020 11:05

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/mild-c ... 653056.cms

Now mild cases can be dicharged without test..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby jpremnath » 10 May 2020 11:18

The speed of our growth in active cases will push us into the top 10 list within a few days. I must say, among the worst affected, the recovery of Turkey has been quite impressive. Their active cases is dropping fast and is almost the same as India's even though they had reached more than 1,37,000 confirmed cases. During the early days the rate at which they were going made everyone feel Turkey was going to be the next Spain/Italy.

I guess what it says is the strength of your Public Healthcare system is what matters in this battle. Our States had ignored the Healthcare infrastructure with underfunded and understaffed govt hospitals and it is showing. Because what we should be worried about is not the absolute numbers of infected, but the recovery rate. We entered the lockdown during the earliest phase and enforced the most crippling of all lockdowns in the world. Many of us thought the summer is going to slow down the spread, and now in another 7 or 8 days we will cross the 1lakh mark. I do wish that i will come here then and say I am glad i was wrong.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 10 May 2020 12:28

Wuhan airport drill for passenger with a new type of coronavirus last SEPTEMBER, French athletes falling sick in the city in OCTOBER and a warning by Bat Woman expert A YEAR ago... so when did Covid first erupt in China?

By IAN BIRRELL FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY

PUBLISHED: 22:51 BST, 9 May 2020 | UPDATED: 22:55 BST, 9 May 2020

On the afternoon of September 18 last year, the customs office at Wuhan Tianhe airport received an emergency message that a passenger on an incoming flight was unwell and distressed with breathing difficulties.

Staff at the glistening modern airport rushed into emergency mode, donning protective masks as managers unleashed their action plans. Soon afterwards, ‘the Wuhan First Aid Centre reported that the transfer case had been clinically diagnosed as a novel type of coronavirus’, according to a journalist from a state media agency. This was, the agency reported, a drill to test responses in advance of the World Military Games, which were being held the following month with 10,000 competitors due in the fast-growing city in central China. Officials passed with flying colours.

Yet what a strange coincidence they picked that particular exercise, given what was soon to unfold in Wuhan as birthplace of a global pandemic. As one person later asked on social media: ‘Why did they choose a new coronavirus to drill?’

Now this question has become all the more pertinent with last week’s revelation that French athletes think they caught Covid-19 while competing in those games.

Several fell ill with bad flu-like symptoms during the event, which took place over nine days from October 18. ‘A lot of athletes at the World Military Games were very ill,’ said Elodie Clouvel, a world champion modern pentathlete.

This followed the revelation that a fishmonger treated in a Paris hospital for suspected pneumonia on December 27 had been confirmed as a victim of the new virus. He was baffled since he had not travelled abroad.

This is very significant. China notified the disease to the World Health Organisation four days after the Frenchman was in hospital and did not put Wuhan into lockdown for a further 24 days.

One study found this virus spreads so fast that if officials had acted three weeks sooner, they would have reduced cases by 95 per cent. Even one week faster could have cut numbers by two-thirds.

Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, is a transport hub. Over three crucial months from December, there were 7,530 flights between there and other parts of China, carrying more than one million passengers – and ten direct flights to the UK.

Yet even in January, Chinese leaders prevented expert outside teams from investigating the virus, silenced doctors trying to warn citizens and refused to admit there was human transmission until January 20.

Little wonder that as the world death toll soars, families are devastated and economies shattered, there are growing calls for an international inquiry into the origins of this pandemic, despite the brazen defiance of Beijing’s Communist Party chiefs.

So what do we now know about the origins of the virus outbreak? Certainly as that exercise at the airport proved, these are not unpredictable events.

The Mail on Sunday can reveal that last year, Shi Zhengli – a world-renowned expert on coronaviruses, known as Bat Woman for her cave expeditions to collect samples from the nocturnal mammals – warned explicitly about the dangers.

In a paper published with three colleagues in March 2019, she admitted it was ‘highly likely’ there would be a coronavirus outbreak originating from bats ‘and there is an increased probability this will occur in China’.

Zhengli, who helped prove the link to bats through consumption of civet cats in the 2002 SARS epidemic, said: ‘Chinese food culture maintains that live slaughtered animals are more nutritious, and this belief may enhance viral transmission.

‘It is generally believed bat-borne coronaviruses will re-emerge to cause the next disease outbreak. In this regard, China is a likely hotspot.’ She was, of course, correct. But China’s politicians did nothing to close down their hideous markets selling animals grabbed from the wild – until on January 1 they suddenly shut the one in Wuhan they blamed for this latest eruption of disease.

A stream of expert papers has pinpointed the virus to the market. One typical study by leading Chinese scientists insisted the cluster of mysterious pneumonia-like symptoms began emerging on December 21.

‘All current evidence points to wild animals sold illegally in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market,’ it said. Many experts around the world agree with this analysis. Even last week, a paper in Nature by Chinese scientists pointed to the possibility of pangolin (a scaly mammal) as ‘intermediate host’ of SARS- CoV-2, which causes the disease. They said, rightly, that failure to control the illegal wildlife trade threatened public health.

Yet the market link remains unproven. There are valid questions over whether the coronavirus might have inadvertently leaked from two laboratories in the city – one near to the market, the other China’s first with top-level bio-security status.

President Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo, his Secretary of State, said they have seen evidence that the virus came from one of the laboratories. Reports suggest several US intelligence agencies suspect the same but lack a ‘smoking gun’.

The Mail on Sunday has exposed poor security, including a picture of a sub-standard seal on a refrigerated vault holding lethal viruses, and an admission from the head of Wuhan Institute of Virology’s bio-safety team of deficient safety procedures.

An academic paper in February by Botao Xiao, a bioscience professor at South China University of Technology, and Lei Xiao, a researcher based in Wuhan, concluded ‘the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan’.

The document – entitled The Possible Origins Of 2019-nCoV Coronavirus – was published on a site used by scientists to share research. It called for tighter security in high-risk laboratories but was mysteriously withdrawn after two days.

This explosive paper – seen by The Mail on Sunday – said 605 bats were kept in the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control, which is about 500 yards from the market.

It described how bats attacked, bled and urinated on one researcher, forcing him into quarantine on two occasions. ‘It is plausible that the virus leaked,’ it said.

Some in the media have dismissed such suggestions by conflating them with online conspiracy theories about man-made diseases and bio-weapons – presumably driven by loathing of Trump rather than sympathy for China’s totalitarian regime. Yet we need to establish the truth if remotely possible.

‘It would be incredibly useful to know where the new coronavirus came from so we can prevent this happening again,’ said Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University.

So how much can we decipher on the details and timing of this outbreak by sifting through academic research papers, media reports and social-media posts? Let us start with a fascinating report in the respected South China Morning Post, based on data said to come from the Beijing government that traced the virus to November 17. It did not rule out the possibility of earlier cases.

The report pinpointed a 55-year-old from Hubei as the first known case. Yet the authorities, it said, could not pinpoint who was Patient Zero from the nine initial cases –four men and five women, aged between 39 and 79.

There were then one to five new cases each day – and on December 27, a hospital doctor called Zhang Jixian confirmed they were dealing with a new coronavirus.

This conflicts with an influential study published in January by Chinese researchers in The Lancet, which claimed the ‘symptom onset date’ of the first identified patient was December 1.

This study also found that 27 out of their sample of 41 patients admitted to hospital in the early stages ‘had been exposed to the market’.

Wu Wenjuan, one of the authors and a senior doctor at Wuhan’s Jinyintan Hospital, which specialises in infectious diseases, told the BBC Chinese service that their first patient was an elderly man suffering from dementia.

‘He lived four or five buses from the seafood market – and because he was sick, he basically didn’t go out,’ she said, adding that three more people developed symptoms in the following days, although only one had ‘exposure’ to the market.

Her words tie in to a graphic in the study that shows one case on December 1, three on December 10 and then none until December 15. Only one of the initial four cases was linked to the market – but then all of the next ten.

Wuhan’s government claimed that the first confirmed case fell sick on December 8, a man who recovered from the illness. It said that he denied going to the animal market.

Yet that Lancet study also contains another intriguing nugget. The first fatal case is identified as a man linked to the market. Five days after ‘illness onset’, his wife – ‘a 53-year-old woman who had no known history of exposure to the market’ – also turned up before doctors with pneumonia and was hospitalised in an isolation ward.

Wu Wenjuan also told the Wall Street Journal that their earliest cases included a 49-year-old trader at the market who fell ill on December 12.

Seven days later, his father-in-law – who had not been exposed to the market – caught the illness. Then doctors and nurses started falling ill by December 25, which was revealed by reports in state media.

These cases all clearly imply human-to-human transmission several weeks before it was publicly admitted by Beijing. This crucial information was finally confirmed to the world just four days before that important paper was published in The Lancet.

Five days earlier, Li Qun, head of China’s public health emergency centre, even told state television that ‘after careful screening and prudent judgment, we have reached the latest understanding that risk of human-to-human transmission is low’.

Yet another paper in the New England Journal Of Medicine confirmed that Chinese doctors saw evidence of human transmission ‘among close contacts since the middle of December 2019’.

And a team from Wuhan Centre for Disease Control published a paper in Nature Microbiology last month that mentioned swabs being taken ‘from patients in Wuhan with influenza-like illness from October 6, 2019, to January 21, 2020’.

The beginning of October is earlier than any other experts have indicated signs of this virus. These researchers found nine out of their 640 swabs tested positive – but then concluded that this suggested ‘community transmission’ in early January this year.

One blogger also spotted a tantalising fact: in July last year, China’s National Health Commission issued an edict on protection against infectious diseases that urged all localities to strengthen their monitoring of ‘flu-like cases, unexplained pneumonia’.

The bulletin – unsupported by relevant data and absent from a similar earlier notice – added that after any outbreak, there must be quick ‘epidemiological investigations, laboratory tests, and implementing measures such as disinfection and treatment of epidemic areas to prevent spread’. Clearly that failed to happen.[..]
Last edited by anmol on 10 May 2020 13:33, edited 1 time in total.

anmol
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 10 May 2020 12:32

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Testing: Status Update:
A total of 1609037 samples have been tested as on 10 May 2020, 9 AM IST.


Code: Select all

10/5/2020 - 1609037 [ 85824 tested, 2951 positive (3.44%) ]
09/5/2020 - 1523213 [ 85425 tested, 3339 positive (3.91%) ]
08/5/2020 - 1437788 [ 80375 tested, 3344 positive (4.16%) ]
07/5/2020 - 1357413 [ 80632 tested, 3602 positive (4.47%) ]
06/5/2020 - 1276781 [ 84835 tested, 2971 positive (3.50%) ]
05/5/2020 - 1191946 [ 84713 tested, 3656 positive (4.31%) ]
04/5/2020 - 1107233 [ 60783 tested, 2952 positive (4.85%) ]
03/5/2020 - 1046450 [ 70087 tested, 2564 positive (3.65%) ]
02/5/2020 - 976363  [ 73709 tested, 2396 positive (3.25%) ]
01/5/2020 - 902654  [ 72453 tested, 1801 positive (2.48%) ]
30/4/2020 - 830201  [ 59437 tested, 1705 positive (2.86%) ]
29/4/2020 - 770764  [ 54031 tested, 1902 positive (3.52%) ]
28/4/2020 - 716733  [ 50914 tested, 1568 positive (3.07%) ]
27/4/2020 - 665819  [ 40510 tested, 1607 positive (3.96%) ]
26/4/2020 - 625309  [ 45352 tested, 1835 positive (4.04%) ]
25/4/2020 - 579957  [ 38168 tested, 1408 positive (3.68%) ]
24/4/2020 - 541789  [ 41247 tested, 1667 positive (4.04%) ]

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 10 May 2020 13:07

syam wrote:Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.
link


From the above article...pretty scary if true. Docs any correlation you guys are observing in recovered patients? I wonder why the above article is not getting much MSM attention. Possibly because the article doesn't provide any statistics to back up the claims.

A couple of days ago, our Health Minister said "we need to learn to live with the virus"...possibly saying that it will take time before we can get it to control or beating Covid and economy can't wait...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 10 May 2020 17:09

Image


Day after this phone call WHO decided not to declare public health emergency.


WHO Director-General's statement on IHR Emergency Committee on Novel Coronavirus

22 January 2020

Good evening to everyone in the room, and to everyone online.

I’m really sorry that we’re so late. Thank you all for your patience.

As you know, this is an evolving and complex situation.

I’d like to thank Dr Houssin for his leadership of the Emergency Committee, and all the members of the committee, the advisors, and those who made presentations earlier today.

I was very impressed by the detail and depth of China’s presentation.

I also appreciate the cooperation of China’s Minister of Health, who I have spoken with directly during the last few days and weeks. His leadership and the intervention of President Xi and Premier Li have been invaluable, and all the measures they have taken to respond to the outbreak.

There was an excellent discussion during the committee today, but it was also clear that to proceed, we need more information.

For that reason, I have decided to ask the Emergency Committee to meet again tomorrow to continue their discussion, and the Chair, Dr Houssin, has agreed with that request.

The decision about whether or not to declare a public health emergency of international concern is one I take extremely seriously, and one I am only prepared to make with appropriate consideration of all the evidence.

Our team in China is working with local experts and officials to investigate the outbreak.

We will have much more to say tomorrow.

Thank you very much, and we would be glad to answer any questions you have.

Before that, I would like to hand over to the Chair of the Emergency Committee, Dr Houssin, to say a few words about the committee’s deliberations.
Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

23 January 2020 Statement

Geneva, Switzerland

[..]
Conclusions and Advice

On 22 January, the members of the Emergency Committee expressed divergent views on whether this event constitutes a PHEIC or not. At that time, the advice was that the event did not constitute a PHEIC, but the Committee members agreed on the urgency of the situation and suggested that the Committee should be reconvened in a matter of days to examine the situation further.

After the announcement of new containment measures in Wuhan on 22 January, the Director-General asked the Emergency Committee to reconvene on 23 January to study the information provided by Chinese authorities about the most recent epidemiological evolution and the risk-management measures taken.

Chinese authorities presented new epidemiological information that revealed an increase in the number of cases, of suspected cases, of affected provinces, and the proportion of deaths in currently reported cases of 4% (17 of 557). They reported fourth-generation cases in Wuhan and second-generation cases outside Wuhan, as well as some clusters outside Hubei province. They explained that strong containment measures (closure of public-transportation systems are in place in Wuhan City, as well as other nearby cities). After this presentation, the EC was informed about the evolution in Japan, Republic of Korea, and Thailand, and that one new possible case had been identified in Singapore.

The Committee welcomed the efforts made by China to investigate and contain the current outbreak.

The following elements were considered as critical:

Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.

Several members considered that it is still too early to declare a PHEIC, given its restrictive and binary nature.

Based on these divergent views, the EC formulates the following advice:

To WHO

The Committee stands ready to be reconvened in approximately ten days’ time, or earlier should the Director-General deem it necessary.

The Committee urged to support ongoing efforts through a WHO international multidisciplinary mission, including national experts. The mission would review and support efforts to investigate the animal source of the outbreak, the extent of human-to-human transmission, the screening efforts in other provinces of China, the enhancement of surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections in these regions, and to reinforce containment and mitigation measures. A mission would provide information to the international community to aid in understanding of the situation and its potential public health impact.

WHO should continue to provide all necessary technical and operational support to respond to this outbreak, including with its extensive networks of partners and collaborating institutions, to implement a comprehensive risk communication strategy, and to allow for the advancement of research and scientific developments in relation to this novel coronavirus.

In the face of an evolving epidemiological situation and the restrictive binary nature of declaring a PHEIC or not, WHO should consider a more nuanced system, which would allow an intermediate level of alert. Such a system would better reflect the severity of an outbreak, its impact, and the required measures, and would facilitate improved international coordination, including research efforts for developing medical counter measures.
[..]

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 10 May 2020 19:58

Five Air India Pilots Test Positive For Coronavirus, Had Flown Cargo Flight To Guangzhou
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/five-air- ... -guangzhou

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 10 May 2020 22:09

Some Doctors Pull Back on Using Ventilators to Treat Covid-19

Doctors have dubbed these patients “happy hypoxemics,” a reference to the paradox of abnormally low levels of oxygen found in their blood combined with an ability to breathe relatively easily.

In recent weeks, doctors at Stony Brook Hospital have used ventilators less on these patients, turning instead to the CPAP or BiPAP machines or high-flow nasal cannulas.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ashokk » 10 May 2020 22:50

National Institute of Virology develops 1st indigenous Elisa test kit for Covid-19: Harsh Vardhan
NEW DELHI: The National Institute of Virology in Pune has successfully developed the first indigenous antibody detection kit for Covid-19 that will play a critical role in surveillance for coronavirus infection, Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said on Sunday.
The test kit has the advantage of testing 90 samples together in a single run of 2.5 hours, so that healthcare professionals can proceed quickly with necessary next steps, Vardhan said.

This kit was validated at two sites in Mumbai and has high sensitivity and accuracy, Vardhan said.
The ELISA-based testing is easily possible even at district level, he said.
Developed in a month's time, the testing kit would help to study the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in the Indian population.
It is cost-effective, sensitive, rapid, and a large number of samples can be tested at any level of clinical setting, public health centers and hospitals.
The Indian Council of Medical Research-National Institute of Virology, Pune, technology has been transferred to Zydus Cadila for mass-scale production.
The Drug Controller General has granted commercial production and marketing permission to Zydus, Vardhan said.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 10 May 2020 22:53

Zynda wrote:
syam wrote:Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.
link


From the above article...pretty scary if true. Docs any correlation you guys are observing in recovered patients? I wonder why the above article is not getting much MSM attention. Possibly because the article doesn't provide any statistics to back up the claims.

A couple of days ago, our Health Minister said "we need to learn to live with the virus"...possibly saying that it will take time before we can get it to control or beating Covid and economy can't wait...


Nothing much to worry regarding long term morbidity in recovered patients..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 11 May 2020 00:31

if the hans own the judge and jury, then surely, there will be no executioner.


WION@WIONews
China says it is open for a review, but wants it to be conducted under the leadership of WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus



Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 11 May 2020 10:08

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Testing: Status Update:
A total of 1673688 samples have been tested as on 11 May 2020, 9 AM IST.


Code: Select all

11/5 - 1673688 [ 64651 tested, 4296 positive (6.64%) ]
10/5 - 1609037 [ 85824 tested, 2951 positive (3.44%) ]
09/5 - 1523213 [ 85425 tested, 3339 positive (3.91%) ]
08/5 - 1437788 [ 80375 tested, 3344 positive (4.16%) ]
07/5 - 1357413 [ 80632 tested, 3602 positive (4.47%) ]
06/5 - 1276781 [ 84835 tested, 2971 positive (3.50%) ]
05/5 - 1191946 [ 84713 tested, 3656 positive (4.31%) ]
04/5 - 1107233 [ 60783 tested, 2952 positive (4.85%) ]
03/5 - 1046450 [ 70087 tested, 2564 positive (3.65%) ]
02/5 - 976363  [ 73709 tested, 2396 positive (3.25%) ]
01/5 - 902654  [ 72453 tested, 1801 positive (2.48%) ]
30/4 - 830201  [ 59437 tested, 1705 positive (2.86%) ]
29/4 - 770764  [ 54031 tested, 1902 positive (3.52%) ]
28/4 - 716733  [ 50914 tested, 1568 positive (3.07%) ]
27/4 - 665819  [ 40510 tested, 1607 positive (3.96%) ]
26/4 - 625309  [ 45352 tested, 1835 positive (4.04%) ]
25/4 - 579957  [ 38168 tested, 1408 positive (3.68%) ]
24/4 - 541789  [ 41247 tested, 1667 positive (4.04%) ]

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 11 May 2020 19:43

DrRatnadip wrote:
Zynda wrote:
From the above article...pretty scary if true. Docs any correlation you guys are observing in recovered patients? I wonder why the above article is not getting much MSM attention. Possibly because the article doesn't provide any statistics to back up the claims.

A couple of days ago, our Health Minister said "we need to learn to live with the virus"...possibly saying that it will take time before we can get it to control or beating Covid and economy can't wait...


Nothing much to worry regarding long term morbidity in recovered patients..

Dr., thanks for your inputs. This is indeed a relief.

Please do keep on feeding us with Covid related developments, especially since now it is quite clear that we will have to learn to live with this disease.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 11 May 2020 21:31

The Americans have estimated that the crisis will last at least 2 years, essentially estimating the period it will take for a vaccine to arrive. Basically, asymptomatic cases will pass the virus back and forth and it will circulate within society unnoticed with occasional casualties.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 11 May 2020 22:28

US total cases and new deaths have dropped dramatically. It seems to be too good to be true. I was expecting a drop off, but not this fast.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 11 May 2020 23:25

Zynda wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:
Nothing much to worry regarding long term morbidity in recovered patients..

Dr., thanks for your inputs. This is indeed a relief.

Please do keep on feeding us with Covid related developments, especially since now it is quite clear that we will have to learn to live with this disease.


I have few personal observations regarding covid in last wk..
- Recovery rate in severely affected pts has increased significantly.. many bad pts are improving..
- Random trauma pts are turning covid positive..This most likely indicates much widespread spread of virus than we know..
- Many media articles especially in western media are trying to prove that covid is somehow very different than previously known diseases.. This is not the case.. It is not much different than other respiratory viruses.. We deal with much deadlier pathogens daily.. But thankfully they dont spread as easily..
- If a virgin area detects covid pt then local govt bodies are declaring stricter lockdown over very large area..This is counterproductive..
-Talked with few doctors working in dedicated Covid hospitals.. nobody believes in doomsday scenario.. We are not going to face widespread mortality .. We will be out of this pandemic with few bruises.. We just have to deal with isolated outbreaks in foreseeable future..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 11 May 2020 23:39

DrRatnadip wrote:- Many media articles especially in western media are trying to prove that covid is somehow very different than previously known diseases.. This is not the case.. It is not much different than other respiratory viruses.. We deal with much deadlier pathogens daily.. But thankfully they dont spread as easily..

Thank you for your sterling contributions to this thread. Could you please elaborate further ? How do you quantify deadlier, and how is the rate of spread here different ? If you could offer other examples by way of comparison, it would be much more helpful to those not as familiar with the epidemiological field.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 11 May 2020 23:45

Mort Walker wrote:US total cases and new deaths have dropped dramatically. It seems to be too good to be true. I was expecting a drop off, but not this fast.


Wall Street earnings indicate an uptick in hygiene practices in the USA. Procter and Gamble CFO estimates this is a permanent shift in hygiene practices. IMO, this plus the mainstreaming of fake meat will control health costs.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 12 May 2020 00:32

DrRatnadip wrote:
Zynda wrote:Dr., thanks for your inputs. This is indeed a relief.

Please do keep on feeding us with Covid related developments, especially since now it is quite clear that we will have to learn to live with this disease.


I have few personal observations regarding covid in last wk..
- Recovery rate in severely affected pts has increased significantly.. many bad pts are improving..
- Random trauma pts are turning covid positive..This most likely indicates much widespread spread of virus than we know..
- Many media articles especially in western media are trying to prove that covid is somehow very different than previously known diseases.. This is not the case.. It is not much different than other respiratory viruses.. We deal with much deadlier pathogens daily.. But thankfully they dont spread as easily..
- If a virgin area detects covid pt then local govt bodies are declaring stricter lockdown over very large area..This is counterproductive..
-Talked with few doctors working in dedicated Covid hospitals.. nobody believes in doomsday scenario.. We are not going to face widespread mortality .. We will be out of this pandemic with few bruises.. We just have to deal with isolated outbreaks in foreseeable future..




This is congruent with the only statistic I am interested in, total mortality (not even case fatality ratio).

1 The western press did go out sniffing for corpses in India and were honest enough to report an unexpected lack of cases.
2 Since then there has been a dearth of reports on the impending catastrophe in India. Certainly it makes their own countries look incompetent or worse.
3 This however is not the time to get smug-keep the guard up. It was obvious however that India did the right thing when it prohibited inbound flights.
4 There is an account to settle with China-it protested the Indian decision to ban incoming flights from China, knowing full well that there was human transmission. Despicable.
5 There may be physiologic differences between (superior :mrgreen: ) Indians and the rest of the world. Perhaps the virus doesn't like the taste of Indians.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 12 May 2020 00:50

Deleted a self pat in the back post.
Last edited by ramana on 12 May 2020 01:21, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited by ramana.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 12 May 2020 01:25

Suraj wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:- Many media articles especially in western media are trying to prove that covid is somehow very different than previously known diseases.. This is not the case.. It is not much different than other respiratory viruses.. We deal with much deadlier pathogens daily.. But thankfully they dont spread as easily..

Thank you for your sterling contributions to this thread.

Ditto, Dr your observations are amazingly insightful. Yes it looks like this virus is a lot more prevalent than believed earlier, and at least as far as I can tell in TN the government appears to not be too worried anymore with the local variant of the virus. People aren't talking about ventilators or ICU rooms, even quarantine has degraded to home quarantine for asymptomatics. The question is how do we make an orderly exit from the lockdown while enforcing the hygiene and social distancing practices on our population at large; and how do we help the especially vulnerable avoid or recover from the illness.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 12 May 2020 02:05

Mort Walker wrote:US total cases and new deaths have dropped dramatically. It seems to be too good to be true. I was expecting a drop off, but not this fast.


Since when? For the past few days, new cases have been around 27000/day and deaths have been between 1700-2700/day. I don't see a significant drop. source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 12 May 2020 05:08

DrRatnadip wrote:...


Thank you doc, just curious, this seems somewhat different from what you were saying before? Did doctors also decide against the use of invasive ventilation?

Mort ji, the decline in US cases and deaths was visible from mid April. Then the criterion for counting deaths (maybe also cases) changed in NY state (maybe also the whole of the US) on April 14th. So on April 15th, there was a huge outlier on the deaths plot. After that, there was still a declining trend, but it seems there was also a lag between actual case/ death date and the reporting date. Because of that, the deaths graph followed a saw-tooth pattern, with sudden surges on certain days. The pattern does not seem to be because of new hot-spots, the timescale of each saw-tooth is like 6 to 8 days (far too small to be because of a new hot-spot), and the news also didn't indicate new hot-spots. So the actual decline in deaths was hidden since mid April, until now. The graph of daily deaths shows this pretty clearly. But since then, the outliers and additional deaths due to the new criterion would have been redistributed to the appropriate dates, so the current official graph would look different from a graph, which is obtained from daily numbers as and when they unfolded. If that's not clear, I can post the actual graph I have, from data gleaned on a day-by-day basis from worldometer, this would show the action "as it unfolded" so to speak, before any redistribution.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 12 May 2020 06:29

sudarshan wrote:
Mort ji, the decline in US cases and deaths was visible from mid April. Then the criterion for counting deaths (maybe also cases) changed in NY state (maybe also the whole of the US) on April 14th. So on April 15th, there was a huge outlier on the deaths plot. After that, there was still a declining trend, but it seems there was also a lag between actual case/ death date and the reporting date. Because of that, the deaths graph followed a saw-tooth pattern, with sudden surges on certain days. The pattern does not seem to be because of new hot-spots, the timescale of each saw-tooth is like 6 to 8 days (far too small to be because of a new hot-spot), and the news also didn't indicate new hot-spots. So the actual decline in deaths was hidden since mid April, until now. The graph of daily deaths shows this pretty clearly. But since then, the outliers and additional deaths due to the new criterion would have been redistributed to the appropriate dates, so the current official graph would look different from a graph, which is obtained from daily numbers as and when they unfolded. If that's not clear, I can post the actual graph I have, from data gleaned on a day-by-day basis from worldometer, this would show the action "as it unfolded" so to speak, before any redistribution.


Thanks for the info. Yes, there was a downward trend, but from always over 1100 deaths/day declined to under 750 became somewhat puzzling. According Worldometer +1008 deaths on 11 May 2020. Again news is coming out that COVID-19 deaths in the US have been undercounted, so we may see a bump up again. As we've seen in other places when lockdowns are lifted there is an increase of cases and in the US some 45/50 states have relaxed shutdown orders. The pattern is downward and perhaps as more sunlight comes out, the UV helps in disinfecting outdoor surfaces and places where the virus can't survive as long.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 12 May 2020 08:20

sudarshan wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:...


Thank you doc, just curious, this seems somewhat different from what you were saying before? Did doctors also decide against the use of invasive ventilation?

Mort ji, the decline in US cases and deaths was visible from mid April. Then the criterion for counting deaths (maybe also cases) changed in NY state (maybe also the whole of the US) on April 14th. So on April 15th, there was a huge outlier on the deaths plot. After that, there was still a declining trend, but it seems there was also a lag between actual case/ death date and the reporting date. Because of that, the deaths graph followed a saw-tooth pattern, with sudden surges on certain days. The pattern does not seem to be because of new hot-spots, the timescale of each saw-tooth is like 6 to 8 days (far too small to be because of a new hot-spot), and the news also didn't indicate new hot-spots. So the actual decline in deaths was hidden since mid April, until now. The graph of daily deaths shows this pretty clearly. But since then, the outliers and additional deaths due to the new criterion would have been redistributed to the appropriate dates, so the current official graph would look different from a graph, which is obtained from daily numbers as and when they unfolded. If that's not clear, I can post the actual graph I have, from data gleaned on a day-by-day basis from worldometer, this would show the action "as it unfolded" so to speak, before any redistribution.

Any thoughts on what the new criterion was? In your view was it justified to use this new criterion?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 12 May 2020 08:56

Cain Marko wrote:Any thoughts on what the new criterion was? In your view was it justified to use this new criterion?


I believe earlier they were counting only deaths in hospitals. Then the gov. of NY made a statement that deaths were being under-counted, because they were missing deaths in homes and nursing homes. So I think those were added. One fine day (15th April to be precise) they (I think) summed up all the deaths in homes and nursing homes up to that point which were deemed to be from COVID, and added them to the tally. That's what caused the spike (4X the deaths as on the previous day). Then every 4 or 5 days after that, they kept adding further sums to the tally as and when the numbers came in (lag in reporting), causing the saw-tooth graph.

I personally don't think this is justified, but that's my opinion, and so irrelevant here. The points to note are:

* That paper which you posted earlier, suggesting 93,000 deaths by Aug. 1 in the USA (which ended up becoming the official estimate for the US) - that death estimate came from a mathematical model, which was trained on data of daily deaths up to around the beginning of April, and was then used to make predictions beyond that date (first they said 60,000, then they updated to 93,000). But the training data was from the old criterion. And the actual daily death data after April 10th or so was already starting to fall far short of the prediction. According to the authors, they had already fully accounted for the lockdown in their prediction, so the shortfall can't be attributed to that.

* Then when the new criterion was adopted, the actual data fell right back on the predicted curve. This is deceptive, like I said earlier - the model was trained using only hospital deaths, so the model was only good for predicting hospital deaths, and it was over-predicting those. If the model is to be compared to hospital+home+nursing home deaths, then the model should have been trained with that data from the beginning. Else the comparison is spurious.

* The peak was already reached in terms of daily deaths around the middle of April. The adoption of the new criterion hid that fact for nearly a month.

That was in response to Mort's post, where he was surprised at the sudden steep drop-off over the last couple of days - that drop-off had already started back in April, is my point - it looks surprisingly steep now, because it was hidden for a long while.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 12 May 2020 11:59

i saw a tweet about chinese planning to test 11 million wuhan people in 10 day sprint. the scale of testing is simply mind-blowing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 12 May 2020 13:46

syam wrote:i saw a tweet about chinese planning to test 11 million wuhan people in 10 day sprint. the scale of testing is simply mind-blowing.


They are scared sh1tless by the 2nd wave because their economy is cranking up again. Enterprises are using up their final savings to get back up again. The second wave hits and there would be no money to rebuild a second time.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ArjunPandit » 12 May 2020 14:37

chola wrote:
syam wrote:i saw a tweet about chinese planning to test 11 million wuhan people in 10 day sprint. the scale of testing is simply mind-blowing.


They are scared sh1tless by the 2nd wave because their economy is cranking up again. Enterprises are using up their final savings to get back up again. The second wave hits and there would be no money to rebuild a second time.

are you on twitter?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 12 May 2020 15:14

syam wrote:i saw a tweet about chinese planning to test 11 million wuhan people in 10 day sprint. the scale of testing is simply mind-blowing.


Probably batch testing. Swabbing will be labor and time intensive, testing probably won't be too overwhelming, maybe only a few hundred thousand tests actually run.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 13 May 2020 00:11

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:Any thoughts on what the new criterion was? In your view was it justified to use this new criterion?


I believe earlier they were counting only deaths in hospitals. Then the gov. of NY made a statement that deaths were being under-counted, because they were missing deaths in homes and nursing homes. So I think those were added. One fine day (15th April to be precise) they (I think) summed up all the deaths in homes and nursing homes up to that point which were deemed to be from COVID, and added them to the tally. That's what caused the spike (4X the deaths as on the previous day). Then every 4 or 5 days after that, they kept adding further sums to the tally as and when the numbers came in (lag in reporting), causing the saw-tooth graph.

I personally don't think this is justified, but that's my opinion, and so irrelevant here. The points to note are:

* That paper which you posted earlier, suggesting 93,000 deaths by Aug. 1 in the USA (which ended up becoming the official estimate for the US) - that death estimate came from a mathematical model, which was trained on data of daily deaths up to around the beginning of April, and was then used to make predictions beyond that date (first they said 60,000, then they updated to 93,000). But the training data was from the old criterion. And the actual daily death data after April 10th or so was already starting to fall far short of the prediction. According to the authors, they had already fully accounted for the lockdown in their prediction, so the shortfall can't be attributed to that.

* Then when the new criterion was adopted, the actual data fell right back on the predicted curve. This is deceptive, like I said earlier - the model was trained using only hospital deaths, so the model was only good for predicting hospital deaths, and it was over-predicting those. If the model is to be compared to hospital+home+nursing home deaths, then the model should have been trained with that data from the beginning. Else the comparison is spurious.

* The peak was already reached in terms of daily deaths around the middle of April. The adoption of the new criterion hid that fact for nearly a month.

The big question seems to me whether those deaths attributed to COVID 19 outside of hospitals can be legitimately considered COVID related...I'm not sure what the criteria are (to refer to cause of death as COVID) but I can understand if they do so in hotspots like nursing homes or food processing plants. If all of a sudden people start dying in large numbers in certain regions during a pandemic, which can easily cause such spikes, it seems unlikely to my untrained eye that you can attribute these spikes to other reasons (unless they are totally obvious - e.g. accidents).

As things stand, despite the ramp up in testing the CFR still is at 6%. Perhaps it will go down and be a better representation after further testing although I'm not sure to what extent this will happen. If deaths decrease, I'm guessing the fall will be in proportion to a fall in the case numbers as well.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 13 May 2020 00:47

Cain Marko wrote:The big question seems to me whether those deaths attributed to COVID 19 outside of hospitals can be legitimately considered COVID related...I'm not sure what the criteria are (to refer to cause of death as COVID) but I can understand if they do so in hotspots like nursing homes or food processing plants. If all of a sudden people start dying in large numbers in certain regions during a pandemic, which can easily cause such spikes, it seems unlikely to my untrained eye that you can attribute these spikes to other reasons (unless they are totally obvious - e.g. accidents).


I don't know about outside of hospitals, but this is from the Illinois Department of Public Health Director on the subject of deaths within hospitals:

https://week.com/2020/04/20/idph-direct ... lassified/



It's probably similar in other states, and from what I can see, in Europe also.

As things stand, despite the ramp up in testing the CFR still is at 6%. Perhaps it will go down and be a better representation after further testing although I'm not sure to what extent this will happen. If deaths decrease, I'm guessing the fall will be in proportion to a fall in the case numbers as well.


Could be. For all its faults, antibody testing seems the way to go.


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