Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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IndraD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 17 May 2020 18:12


that is correct. That is why several guidelines from NY to London advocate high dose blood thinning like clexane to Heparin.
Imperial college guideline advocated & followed in UK asks Factor Xa maintained at 0.5 to 0.7 level.
Factor Xa is important to clot blood by giving fractionated heparin like clexane we inhibit blood clotting, high doses are given.
Other novel blood thinners also are being tried.
Fortunately in India severity of illness is mild and we haven't heard of such drugs being used in large quantity.
This is remarkably different from previous SARS strain of nCV like MERS & SARS 1 (2003), they were predominantly ARDS virus (stiff lung).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 17 May 2020 18:33

Dhaman-1, AGV not giving desired result, we’re in urgent need of high-end ventilators to fight Covid19: Civil hospital’s leaked letter to GMSCL

https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/05/17/ ... -to-gmscl/

Gandhinagar: Civil hospital in Ahmedabad is in urgent requirement of high-end ventilators as existing ventilators of Dhaman-1 and AGV brands are not giving desired results.

A letter from Superintendence of Asarwa based Civil hospital to Gandhinagar based GMSCL (Gujarat Medical Services Corporation Limited) is leaked in media.

‘ GMSCL had provided Dhaman-1 and AGV ventilators to Civil hospital for treatment of patients but head of Anesthesia department has conveyed that both ventilators are not able to bring desired results in patients. Therefore a 1200-bed Covid19 hospital urgently requires 50 high end ICU ventilator (adult) and another 50 such ventilators are required at IKDRC(Kidney hospital),’ the letter reads.

The letter has been written, based on representation made before the Deputy Chief Minister in a meeting on May 15.

Meanwhile reacting to this, Parakramsinh Jadeja, owner of Jyoti CNC, a Rajkot based company that made Dhaman-1 ventilator, said the government needs to purchase two pieces of accessories that are high-flow meter and humidified. Jadeja said, his company doesn’t make these attachments and they are procured from outside. He said his company is going to give demonstration in this regard tomorrow.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 17 May 2020 20:31

Gielad will wind up trials of Remdesivir in US due to allegations of unfair distribution/corruption in distribution of drug across US. FDA approved this drug w/o evidence.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 17 May 2020 22:00

darshan wrote:
Dhaman-1, AGV not giving desired result, we’re in urgent need of high-end ventilators to fight Covid19: Civil hospital’s leaked letter to GMSCL

https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/05/17/ ... -to-gmscl/

Gandhinagar: Civil hospital in Ahmedabad is in urgent requirement of high-end ventilators as existing ventilators of Dhaman-1 and AGV brands are not giving desired results.

A letter from Superintendence of Asarwa based Civil hospital to Gandhinagar based GMSCL (Gujarat Medical Services Corporation Limited) is leaked in media.

‘ GMSCL had provided Dhaman-1 and AGV ventilators to Civil hospital for treatment of patients but head of Anesthesia department has conveyed that both ventilators are not able to bring desired results in patients. Therefore a 1200-bed Covid19 hospital urgently requires 50 high end ICU ventilator (adult) and another 50 such ventilators are required at IKDRC(Kidney hospital),’ the letter reads.

The letter has been written, based on representation made before the Deputy Chief Minister in a meeting on May 15.

Meanwhile reacting to this, Parakramsinh Jadeja, owner of Jyoti CNC, a Rajkot based company that made Dhaman-1 ventilator, said the government needs to purchase two pieces of accessories that are high-flow meter and humidified. Jadeja said, his company doesn’t make these attachments and they are procured from outside. He said his company is going to give demonstration in this regard tomorrow.


AGV sounds like the much-hyped Agva brand. 'The Ken' had an expose on this a week ago. The gist of it was that it is a bit of a scam (at the baboon level) as the requirements were tweaked to specifically allow Agva, they lied about being FDA approved, and their product isn't really cut out to be an ICU ventilator, though it is a good low cost ventilator for non-ICU patients with other conditions.

Here is the link:
https://the-ken.com/story/ventilator-pr ... -problems/
It is a free article, though you might need to register.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby srai » 18 May 2020 04:23

Scientists found an even closer match between the new coronavirus and a virus in bats — more evidence that it jumped naturally, like other viruses
...

A study published in March 2019 predicted that bats would be the source of a new coronavirus outbreak in China.

"It is highly likely that future SARS- or MERS-like coronavirus outbreaks will originate from bats, and there is an increased probability that this will occur in China," the researchers wrote at the time.

That's because the majority of coronaviruses - those that affect humans and animals - can be found in China, and many bats "live near humans in China, potentially transmitting viruses to humans and livestock," the authors said.

...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Karan M » 18 May 2020 04:33

The Kens article is typical over the top FUD. At a time of a pandemic, with time to act being counted in hours, days, who has the time to conduct some kind of mass survey of all manufacturers? You find one supplier, you lock him down, you move to the next. That's what sensible decision makers do. The Ken journos and their sources OTOH bellyache as if India had all the time in the world to go exploring and talk to a dozen vendors who may, may not have met requirements. Similarly, in a follow up, India went after Skanray, a bunch of other manufacturers and tried what it could do.
Coming to Jyothi - its not a ventilator manufacturer. On the basis of a GOI intervention, they got into it, came out with products. As they say, additional items are required to make them even better or perform to the level of an ICU ventilator, a logical answer. In product development during crisis time, best is the enemy of good enough. Which is what a lot of these journos and watch from the sidelines types never seem to understand. You take what you have, run with it, fix things along the way.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 18 May 2020 04:42

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-11990155
If Oxford trial succeeds by September, UK will have 30 million vaccines available. Trial & mass production is going hand in hand , if trial fails, all shots go in the bin.
Vaccine is genetic material of nCV which codes for spike protein encapsulated in Chadoxyl suitcase, a cold causing virus from chimpanzee.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gerard » 18 May 2020 05:04

IndraD wrote:https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-how-is-oxford-vaccine-being-trialled-and-when-will-we-know-if-it-works-11990155
If Oxford trial succeeds by September, UK will have 30 million vaccines available. Trial & mass production is going hand in hand , if trial fails, all shots go in the bin.
Vaccine is genetic material of nCV which codes for spike protein encapsulated in Chadoxyl suitcase, a cold causing virus from chimpanzee.


The world's largest vaccine maker is producing 40 million units of a coronavirus vaccine on trial in Oxford, without knowing whether it works
But Adar Poonawalla, the CEO of the Serum Institute of India, told The Times of India on Monday that he would not wait that long. He said the institute would produce 5 million units of the vaccine a month, for six months, to get ahead of demand.

"We are not waiting for the trials to get over in September in UK, and then start production here," he said. "The decision — at our own risk and cost — has been solely taken to get a jump-start on manufacturing, to have enough doses available, if the clinical trials prove successful.

"We aim to manufacture 4 to 5 million doses per month for the first six months, following which, we might scale up to 10 million doses per month, based on the success of trials. We are looking to build it up to 20-40 million doses by September-October."

"We are planning to make the vaccine available at an affordable price of around 1,000 rupees ($13) in India," he added. Drug prices vary widely around the world, and the same treatment often costs many times more in other countries.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chanakyaa » 18 May 2020 07:07

Interesting connections.

A Turkish guy (Uğur Şahin) starts a bio-tech company in Germany called BioNTech, short for "Biopharmaceutical New Technologies", which takes large capital investment ($85 million upfront for research and development purposes and $50 million for a 0.7% stake in BioNTech’s stocks) from China's Fosun Group to develop vaccine (BNT162). Fosun gets the rights to distribute in China and Pfizer gets rights to perform trials and distribute in the US. The fact that the trials have entered next stage, indicates that the vaccine must have shown positive results.

Turkish-owned biotech firm signs deal with China's Fosun, US' Pfizer to co-develop coronavirus vaccine

BNT162 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine

Pfizer: COVID-19 Vaccine Could Arrive in October

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 18 May 2020 08:06

hanumadu wrote:~5000 new cases but ~4000 recoveries, so active cases up by ~900. Will 5k new cases be the norm going forward?


Please do not go with number of positive case counts. What matters is recoveries and the CFR. Also antibody testing needs to be put in place, that is all asymptomatic cases will reduce the fatality rate if accounted for.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 May 2020 14:32

Bangladeshi doctors claim to have found effective drug combination to cure COVID-19 patients

Only posting excerpts...
We have got astounding results. Out of 60 COVID-19 patients, all recovered as the combination of the two drugs were applied, said Professor Dr Md Tarek Alam, the head of medicine department at private Bangladesh Medical College Hospital (BMCH).

Alam, a reputed clinician in Bangladesh, said a frequently used antiprotozoal medicine called Ivermectin in a single dose with Doxycycline, an antibiotic, yielded virtually the near-miraculous result in curing the patients with COVID-19.

My team was prescribing the two medicines only for coronavirus patients, most of them initially reporting with respiratory problems with related complaints, later to be tested COVID-19 positive, he said.

Claiming that the efficacy of the drug developed by them was such that patients recovered from the virus within 4 days, he said, adding that there were no side effects of it.

We first ask them to be tested for COVID-19 and when found coronavirus positive we apply the drugs . . . they are recovering within four days".

"The repeated or second tests, in line with the procedure, reconfirmed them COVID-19 negative in all the cases under the research which found the combination to have no side effects on patients either, he said.

We are hundred per cent hopeful about the effectiveness of the combination, he said, adding they by now contacted the concerned government regulators and preparing to exhaust international procedures for acknowledgement of the drugs for the COVID-19 treatment.

Alam said his team was preparing a paper on the development of the drug for an international journal, as required for scientific review and acknowledgement.

Alam's associate Dr Rabiul Morshed said despite being a non-COVID-19 facility a huge number of patients directly and indirectly end up in BMCH, the country's premier private general hospital.

But all of them have shown remarkable recovery being (COVID-19) negative in four days and 50 per cent reduction of symptoms in 3 days, he said.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 18 May 2020 16:14

UK: coronavirus tests advised for people who lose taste or smell. Added as red flag symptom along with fever, myalgia, sore thorat, SOB.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 18 May 2020 18:38

Doubts over Oxford vaccine for nCV:

In US trial all monkeys who were vaccinated with Oxford vaccine developed infection later on when challenged with sub lethal dose of virus. While they developed high amount of antibodies, it wasn't enough to prevent infection from nCV.
However scientists at London said vaccine should be welcomed with cautious optimism, as none of the monkeys in vaccine group died. And produced high antibodies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... al-trials/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 18 May 2020 19:30

So if I understand it correctly, they are trying to trigger the immune system or keep it awake and look out for any new virus coming in.

The antibodies produced doesn't seem to be enough to clear the viral load, but the antibody doesn't over react(no pnuemonia), becoz it seem to recognize the virus.

So looks like the antibody is not reacting fasting enough, but when it does, it is not over reacting. They must have used the common cold, so as to reduce the side effect. We know how antibodies react to common cold.

It doesn't reduce the load, but won't kill. The virus will always be there inside the body, either infecting others or contained within the body.

Might lead to unforseen health issue, if the virus is still inside, even if contained.


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 18 May 2020 19:38

The very high fever in the infected people, indicates it does require to "over reaction" to clean up the virus. The virus seem to have ability to grow very fast, so the body needs to overreact to contain it.

This is destroying the lungs and other organs.

I wonder if there is a way to tell the body/immunie system about the presence of the virus before it is overwhelmed.

Something like a rapid result test kit. If positive, some of medicine, triggering the immune system to start looking for the virus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby syam » 18 May 2020 20:22

Spanish antibody study points to 5% of population affected by coronavirus
MADRID (Reuters) - Preliminary results from a nationwide coronavirus antibody study show that about 5% of the overall Spanish population has been affected, the Health Ministry said on Wednesday, adding that results varied widely from region to region.

The study, carried out by the Carlos III institute for health and the National Statistics Institute, began on April 27 and aimed to test 90,000 people across 36,000 households for the presence of antibodies generated to fight off the virus.

The testing should help the government gauge the true extent of the epidemic, taking into account also those who may be immune or resistant to the infection.

ARanganathan saying(he quoted above article on his tl)
The largest nationwide Antibody testing results from Spain show that 2.35 million are CoVID positive, and not 277,000 as earlier thought (through RT-PCR testing).

Death Rate now reduced from 10% to 1.1%.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 May 2020 20:47

Coronavirus Vaccine From Moderna Shows Early Signs of Viral Immune Response

An experimental vaccine from the U.S. biotechnology company Moderna Inc. showed signs that it can create an immune-system response to fend off the new coronavirus, offering tentative hopes in the global effort to combat the pandemic.

The results are just a sample from the small, first study designed to look at the safety of the shot in human volunteers, and should be viewed with caution. But they showed no major safety worries, a key first hurdle since a vaccine would be given to millions of otherwise healthy people.

“This is a very good sign that we make an antibody that can stop the virus from replicating,” Moderna Chief Executive Officer Stephane Bancel said in an interview. The data “couldn’t have been better,” he said. The company is moving ahead with plans for a larger test to pick a dose of the vaccine and further study its effectiveness, as well as a phase 3 test with many thousands of patients.

A vaccine is considered a crucial step toward lifting social-distancing measures and safely reopening economies, schools and events around the globe. The new coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2, has infected more than 4.7 million people and killed over 300,000, spurring a global race by drugmakers, academic institutions and governments to find a vaccine.

Moderna shares surged as much as 30% in New York, hitting an all-time intraday high of $87. Broader markets rose as well, with S&P 500 futures and European stocks trading near session highs.

The vaccine trials are being conducted in stages, with the first test designed only to look at safety and whether or not the shot created lab markers of an immune-system response. Only in later stages of testing, to be conducted in thousands of patients starting in July, will the vaccine go up against the virus in the real world in a definitive test of whether it prevents or lessens infections.


In the phase 1 test, the researchers looked at blood samples from the test subjects and whether the vaccine helped them generate antibodies that could theoretically fight off an infection. The researchers found that at two lower dose levels used in the study, levels of antibodies found after getting a second booster shot of the vaccine either equaled or exceeded the levels of antibodies found in patients who had recovered from the virus.

Bancel said that safety profile appeared to be good, and the reactions were typical of vaccines. Three patients who got a high dose of the vaccine had more severe side effects, according to a company presentation. That dose won’t be used in later trials. One person with more severe side effects got a middle dose, and had redness around the injection site, the company said.

Side effects seen in the trial included fatigue, fever, muscle pains and headache. All of the symptoms resolved within a day, a Moderna executive said on a conference call Monday.

The phase 2 trial, with 600 patients, will begin shortly, according to the company. Bancel said the company felt it needed to release the interim data from the early trial because of the high level of interest in the vaccine.

Researchers studied blood samples from the test subjects to determine whether the vaccine helped them generate antibodies that could bind to the virus and ones that can fight off an infection. The looked at both the quantity of coronavirus antibodies produced, and in a smaller subset of people, whether those antibodies were sufficient to prevent the virus from infecting cells in test tube experiments.

In 25 people who got either of the two smaller doses used in the study, researchers reported that the levels of antibodies equaled or exceeded the levels of antibodies found in patients who had recovered from the virus.

The second test, evaluating the quality of those antibodies, was only available for eight of the people because it takes longer to perform. But in all eight people, the vaccine successfully stimulated the body to create antibodies capable of neutralizing the virus in the test tube, so it can no longer infect cells.

New Vaccine Technology
Most vaccines either consist of inactive pieces of a virus or proteins from a virus made through genetic engineering. When injected into the body, they trigger a lasting immune response similar to that of a person who has been infected and recovered.

By contrast, the mRNA technology being used by Moderna and several others relies on the body’s own cells to produce viral proteins. Once injected into the body, the RNA slips into human cells and tells them to make virus-like proteins, in this case the “spike” protein on the surface of the coronavirus. If the vaccine works, those proteins then trigger the body to generate protective antibodies.

While the technology is new and hasn’t been used in an approved vaccine before, it allows researchers to move fast into trials. Moderna started working on its Covid-19 vaccine as soon as Chinese scientists put out the gene sequence for the virus in January. By late February, Moderna’s scientists had already delivered the first batch of candidate vaccines to researchers at the U.S. National Institutes of Health. In mid-March, the first healthy volunteer received a dose in the government-sponsored safety trial.

Former GlaxoSmithKline Plc executive Moncef Slaoui, who is set to become the chief scientist for Operation Warp Speed, the White House effort to turbocharge vaccine development, has been a board member at Moderna since 2017. According to a person familiar with the matter, he will leave that and other board seats once he starts the position.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 18 May 2020 21:35

Cyclonic Storm Amphan Intensifies Into Super Cyclone, Currently Centred 770 Km South Of Odisha’s Paradip
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/cyclonic- ... as-paradip

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vamsee » 18 May 2020 21:59

Smriti Z Irani
@smritiirani

PPE Update as on 18 th May — today we have crossed per day production of 4.5 lac PPE suits .. India now has over 600 companies who are lab certified
to manufacture PPE Folded hands

Link

===============

We will probably start exporting PPE suits pretty soon. Out of no where, we have emerged as second largest PPE manufacturer in the world. I wonder how many PPE suits are produced by China every day....

--Vamsee

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 18 May 2020 22:54



I don't see the logic of Karnataka (and other states) trying to micro manage everything, when not all their rules can be implemented - or make sense.
What is the logic of a complete lock-down on Sunday ? If you do allow activity on Sunday, it will reduce crowding on other days. Similarly, keeping parks open for just 2 hours will increase crowding in the time that they are open. Who is going to monitor if buses have 30 people ? Malls (which are less crowded than markets) remain closed, while crowded markets are open (which is how Chennai saw a spike).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Lisa » 18 May 2020 23:10

nithish wrote:
V_Raman wrote:Here is a paper on Vit D and Cytokine storm corrleation. One of the authors is the husband of my Sister-in-Law.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20058578v3

We all are taking 5000 IU Vitamin D daily now as it is a safe mitigation.


This article is reaching conclusions from imaginary data. As the authors note, there is no data available for COVID patients and their vitamin D levels so they are correlating published data on vitamin D levels in other populations and levels of inflammatory markers, and somehow applying this to COVID patient data.

Vitamin D and its effect on reducing respiratory infections has been well-studied and the jury is out. It probably has a protective effect in people who are malnutritioned and/or those who are very deficient in vitamin D.

The higher risk of death in minorities in the UK is possibly due to higher prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, both of which increase risk of COVID death. Access to healthcare and/or discrimination probably needs to be considered as well

5000 units vitamin daily is a very high daily dose!!!
The usual dose for daily supplementation in DEFICIENT ADULTS is 800 IU once a day.


Our largest selling dose is 3000 ius and the second is 5000 ius. Doctors locally will routinely give injections of 100,000 ius to 250,000 ius. Virtually nobody bothers with a dose of less than 1000 ius.

IndraD wrote:UK: coronavirus tests advised for people who lose taste or smell. Added as red flag symptom along with fever, myalgia, sore throat, SOB.


Whether by coincidence or not, we would normally relate a loss of smell and taste to a Zinc deficiency. Some pages ago Zinc was being discussed as a necessary supplement to help with Covid infection.

Just saying.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 18 May 2020 23:18

Lisa wrote:Our largest selling dose is 3000 ius and the second is 5000 ius. Doctors locally will routinely give injections of 100,000 ius to 250,000 ius. Virtually nobody bothers with a dose of less than 1000 ius.


Isn't the injected Vitamin-D dose in some oil base which provides the daily dosage in a regulated manner over several months to a year? So while you are possibly correct in that nobody bothers with a small dose, the big dose is not a daily thing but needs to last for several months. I have received one of those.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 May 2020 23:30

Vamsee wrote:I wonder how many PPE suits are produced by China every day....

Not sure about PPE, but WION did a segment about face masks production in China (was dated around a month or two back) and they said Chinese are able to produce 1.6 Million face masks per day

Sachin wrote:Coronavirus lockdown: Buses, autos, cabs to start from May 19, says Karnataka CM B S Yediyurappa
Ban on entry of people from 4 states, total lockdown on Sundays: Karnataka CM

I expect daily number of cases to spike up...

I do hope some drug combination (like that Bangladesh doc is claiming) works in improving recovery rate (including of hospitalized patients) is found. This would be a massive confidence booster for further easing the restrictions and for many business segments to start operating normally (salons, spas etc. which operate mainly on touch basis).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 May 2020 23:52

Over 100 Million in China’s Northeast Face Renewed Lockdown

> Conditions return to height of China’s epidemic in February
> Frustration as restrictions tighten again after earlier easing


More reasons why we need at least a drug combo if not vaccine ASAP...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 19 May 2020 00:27

Dhaman-1 is useful at initial stage, demanded high-end ventilators for critical patients: Dr. Prabhakar
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/05/18/ ... prabhakar/
Gandhinagar: Officer on Special Duty at Asarwa Civil hospital Dr. MM Prabhakar today while clarifying reports based on his letter said, ‘indigenous manufactured Dhaman-1 and high-end ventilators both are important. In initial phase, when the patient needs oxygen, Dhaman-1 is very useful. When patient is in critical condition, high-end ventilators are required.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vimal » 19 May 2020 00:31

Vamsee wrote:Smriti Z Irani
@smritiirani

PPE Update as on 18 th May — today we have crossed per day production of 4.5 lac PPE suits .. India now has over 600 companies who are lab certified
to manufacture PPE Folded hands

Link

===============

We will probably start exporting PPE suits pretty soon. Out of no where, we have emerged as second largest PPE manufacturer in the world. I wonder how many PPE suits are produced by China every day....

--Vamsee


Only if we can actually keep using PPEs, Gloves and Sanitizers even after the pandemic is over. Also, get on the export bandwagon and undercut the CCP manufacturing machine. Of course, if the west still tries to keep molly coddling and sucking up to cheen then nothing really matters.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 19 May 2020 00:49

Would not there be a trade off of start losing immunity to everyday things if we go in sanitized bubble of killing everything in sight or staying away from it?

For sure protocols and machinations need to be in place moving forward so some country come tomorrow doesn't get any ideas.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 19 May 2020 00:54

Zynda wrote:Over 100 Million in China’s Northeast Face Renewed Lockdown

> Conditions return to height of China’s epidemic in February
> Frustration as restrictions tighten again after earlier easing


More reasons why we need at least a drug combo if not vaccine ASAP...


This thing will keep coming back. If they are locking down a 100 million (!!!) people again and again, the chini economy is screwed. We need to find a way to live with this virus. AIDS used to be an automatic death sentence but a drug combo now makes that 99% survivable. We have to find something.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 01:23

^^Yes, AIDS infection now is not a really big deal like it was once. But transmission of AIDS is not as easy as Covid! Obviously, with a lot of precautions, one can minimize the chances of contracting/transmission of Covid...but yeah, at least a drug combo which will increase the recovery rate is good enough to make countries/citizens gain enough confidence to return to a more or less normalcy.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 19 May 2020 01:40

this is one real feisty, never say die, lady

She is mainly responsible for this quick and timely ramp up in local PPE production.



Smriti Z Irani @smritiirani·7h

PPE Update as on 18 th May — today we have crossed per day production of 4.5 lac PPE suits .. India now has over 600 companies who are lab certified to manufacture PPE
5:39 PM · May 18, 2020

sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 19 May 2020 02:03

darshan wrote:Would not there be a trade off of start losing immunity to everyday things if we go in sanitized bubble of killing everything in sight or staying away from it?

For sure protocols and machinations need to be in place moving forward so some country come tomorrow doesn't get any ideas.


Yes there is a big trade-off. Living sanitized with greatly reduced contact with potential pathogens destroys immunity. Limited exposure is the way to go. The alternative is what seems to be the end-goal of allopathic systems - replace the entire immune system with drug cocktails. Neither sustainable nor desirable.

There were some posts on this thread along the lines of - "this virus is the most evolved to date, it will only get worse, viruses will evolve to the point where they have awesome abilities." This virus is neither the most contagious (that would be measles), nor the most deadly (a host of other viruses will beat this one to claim that title), nor the "most evolved" in any sense. Evolution is not linear, that viruses get increasingly better at all aspects like contagiousness, lethality, re-infection, and further accelerated evolution. The viruses need hosts to survive, if they kill off those hosts too quickly, they die out themselves. And mammals (including humans) are also evolving to deal with new threats (although with humans, that process is greatly slowed down by medicine, which aims to keep the status quo and supplement it with drugs).

The initial lockdown was probably inevitable, but it is in no way sustainable in the long term. The need is to evolve a better strategy, keeping the observed characteristics of the virus in mind.

The worst hotspots for this current pandemic, don't show infection rates exceeding 25%. It could be that the virus hasn't done its worst. But the characteristics of the virus seem to be - great inhomogeniety in infectiousness and susceptibility among the target population. It seems (based on the references I linked in my earlier post) that about 9% to 10% of the infected population is responsible for 80% of subsequent infections, and the remaining 90% of the infected population or so only contribute to 20% of subsequent infections. These 9% to 10% or so are the "super spreaders." This was also observed in S. Korea, where the one church caused about 60% of subsequent infections. They had an aggressive tracing program, admittedly. Then there is inhomogeniety in susceptibility. When the most susceptible members get infected and recover (or not), the infection starts petering out. There could be some overlap between infectiousness vs. susceptibility inhomogeniety, which can be accounted for in various ways. For example, infectiousness inhomogeniety could be due to high viral load, which correlates with immune response, and that would overlap with susceptibility inhomogeniety. OTOH, infectiousness could also be determined by the number of contacts which the person has, and above-average social interaction with these contacts - and this would not overlap with susceptibility inhomogeniety.

What all this means, is that the simplistic 1-1/R0 model for the herd immunity threshold doesn't describe the infection dynamics. Accounting for the inhomogenities can be done with more sophisticated models. These models are not new, they seem to have been used with well-recognized (which isn't necessarily the same as - accurately estimated) parameters for malaria, TB, and also the first SARS infection (2002). These diseases also apparently display substantial inhomogenities in infectiousness and susceptibility. With models which account for the inhomogeniety for SARS-2/COVID-19 (10% being super spreaders) the herd immunity threshold with an R0 of 2.4 or so seems to come down to the 10% to 20% range (the simple 1-1/R0 model yields about 58% HIT). References for this statement are in my previous post.

The test of any model being real-world validation - that validation would come from what kind of headway the virus makes when lockdowns are removed. If it continues to advance in former hotspots like NYC, Italy, etc. that would mean that those places are not yet at the end-phase (note - the end state is not herd immunity, infection momentum carries beyond that point, so if the HIT is like 10%, eventually about 20% to 25% would get infected - likewise, with a 60% HI threshold, it seems about 80% to 90% would get infected eventually, with unrestrained spread). Again, references are in my previous post.

If there's not much advance in those former hotspots when lockdowns are lifted, that would imply that there is no point in further lockdowns in those areas, beyond the 20% infection point or so. Blindly repeating the "60% herd immunity threshold, and no part of the world is even close to this" mantra, without keeping in mind the underlying assumptions and (lack of) sophistication of the infection model, does not help.

Spain as a whole shows 5% infected (with a decent sample size of 70,000 or so individuals, >0.1% of the country's population), which is actually a phenomenal number for a country as a whole, especially when it has been under lockdown for a decent while. Individual areas within Spain show infected fractions as high as 15%. Same with France, 4.4% countrywide, much higher in hotspots like Paris. NYC, Italy, Paris, Diamond Princess, etc. being in the 15% to 25% range, might indicate that the simplistic model yielding 60% HIT needs to be reevaluated.

So the need now is to observe what happens as lockdowns are eased, especially in earlier hotspots. That would indicate how to proceed. Of course, there is no need for mathematical models for this, empirical evidence of further disease spread is sufficient, this seems to be the direction India is going in, with R/O/G zones. I only brought up the above, because the "60% infection threshold necessary to stop this disease" mantra keeps getting mindlessly repeated, and it's starting to look like this principle from a naive model might actually drive public policy.
Last edited by sudarshan on 19 May 2020 10:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 19 May 2020 03:46

0.87%

1,273 Maharashtra Police Personnel So Far Tested Positive For Coronavirus; 11 Dead
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/1273-maha ... us-11-dead

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 03:48

Trump reveals he's taking hydroxychloroquine in effort to prevent coronavirus symptoms

President Trump revealed to reporters on Monday he’s taking the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in an effort to prevent getting coronavirus, saying he’s been taking a pill every day for about a week and a half.

“I’m taking it – hydroxychloroquine,” the president told reporters during a roundtable with restaurant leaders in the White House’s State Dining Room.

He added: “I think it's good. I've heard a lot good stories. And if it's not good, I'll tell you right, I'm not going to get hurt by it."

The president added that he consulted with the White House physician before starting to take the drug.

Hydroxychloroquine is a widely used anti-malarial drug that the president has touted as a possible treatment for COVID-19.

But it's effectiveness for treating coronavirus has been a subject of debate: A recent analysis of the use of the drug to treat COVID-19 patients in U.S. veterans’ hospitals found no benefit to using the drug and that there were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care.

The nationwide study, which was released last month, was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19.

Despite the study, Trump has continued to defend the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat the novel coronavirus and slammed the demoted government scientist who filed a whistleblower complaint claiming he was removed from his post for disagreeing with the Trump administration’s push to use the drug.

Trump said last week that there was a “tremendous response” to hydroxychloroquine and called Rick Bright -- the former director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority – a “disgruntled person.”

Are front line workers around the world still on HCQ to reduce chances of Covid contraction?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 19 May 2020 04:28

IndraD wrote:Doubts over Oxford vaccine for nCV:

In US trial all monkeys who were vaccinated with Oxford vaccine developed infection later on when challenged with sub lethal dose of virus. While they developed high amount of antibodies, it wasn't enough to prevent infection from nCV.
However scientists at London said vaccine should be welcomed with cautious optimism, as none of the monkeys in vaccine group died. And produced high antibodies.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... al-trials/

same trial has been quoted as success on BBC, CBS etc.
Monkeys who had vaccine didn't develop pneumonia when exposed to nCV. They didn;t develop severity of illness nor did they develop enhanced immune response which is what makes patients go 'either way'
In the other group, monkeys w/o vaccination even died from nCV infection.
Dr Penny Ward, a visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King's College London, said it was "helpful" to see that the vaccine didn't cause a worse disease response in these monkeys, and that they didn't develop pneumonia after being vaccinated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52674739

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 19:02

<Nothing to see>
Last edited by Zynda on 19 May 2020 19:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 19:10

https://twitter.com/Kaalateetham/status ... 4697926658

ಶರಣ Dr Jagadish J Hiremath @Kaalateetham

Just out of Prototype testing of Mahindra's ventilator.

Fantastic effort in such a short time. This ventilator can become the bulwark for protecting our high end ventilators. It has ICU design philosophy & can be used by anyone with little training ideal vent for T H & PHCs


Image
Image
Image
These devices will bolster our healthcare system for sure (assuming everything goes well...)

IndraD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 19 May 2020 19:21

Moderna Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Shows Promising Early Results https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/heal ... derna.html

Moderna vaccine trial of US
It has shown encouraging results in phase I trial (8 patients)
25 & 100 mcg doses were used, both produced antibodies comparable to patients who recovered from Covid.
Higher dose produced headache & chills and will not be used any more in trial.
Now 2nd & third stage will follow, if all phases succeed > vaccine will be available in Jan-June 2021

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-re ... na-vaccine
Moderna Announces Positive Interim Phase 1 Data for its mRNA Vaccine (mRNA-1273) Against Novel Coronavirus

After two doses all participants evaluated to date across the 25 µg and 100 µg dose cohorts seroconverted with binding antibody levels at or above levels seen in convalescent sera

mRNA-1273 elicited neutralizing antibody titer levels in all eight initial participants across the 25 µg and 100 µg dose cohorts, reaching or exceeding neutralizing antibody titers generally seen in convalescent sera

mRNA-1273 was generally safe and well tolerated

mRNA-1273 provided full protection against viral replication in the lungs in a mouse challenge model

Anticipated dose for Phase 3 study between 25 µg and 100 µg; expected to start in July

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 19 May 2020 19:38

Umm.. Was the one in April a mock drill to prepare for this?

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/m ... 2020-05-19

I expect a WHOPPING unbelievable increase in Mumbai-Pune belt, as the opening up happens. Potential to be the highest concentration in the world after NY. I am seriously hoping to be proved wrong.

One day after Moderna proclaimed success of their limited trials, the Chinese PR machinery swung into action and promptly got this published :

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05- ... ccine.html

Do Rakshaks think that they had used this untested medicine as a desperate measure to bring the virus to a screeching halt in Wuhan?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saumitra_j » 19 May 2020 19:48

Apologies if this is a repost: Article on Antibody Testing in India

Key points:

States across India are either increasingly sceptical about antibody testing for COVID-19 or are reluctant to use it, IndiaSpend has found in conversations with several health officials. Antibody tests give vital information about a contagion’s spread, and this wariness could have significant implications for India’s current and future strategies to deal with COVID-19, said experts.

All through April 2020, the government had maintained during press conferences that a large tranche of kits was on its way from China. The delivery was delayed but on April 16, 2020, the antibody kits finally arrived in India. However by end-April, the enthusiasm for antibody testing waned after the government announced that the kits from two Chinese companies were faulty and asked states to stop using them. Now, states are reluctant to even put out tenders for antibody tests, we found.


When the ICMR blacklisted two Chinese companies--Wondfo and Livzon--its press statement only said that the kits were “under-performing” with “wide variation in their sensitivity, despite early promise of good performance”.


The ICMR announced on May 10 that it was going to do surveillance and antibody detection via a new ELISA test developed by the government. ELISA testing is another technology to check for the presence of antibodies. But it is not a ‘rapid’ test, it is done in the lab and not on the field. “The test has an advantage of having much higher sensitivity and specificity as compared to the several rapid test kits which have recently flooded the Indian market,” said the press release about the new test.


Whenever a vaccine is ready, antibody testing will be key to determining who receives it. “If antibodies do provide protection against COVID-19, then vaccines can be given to those vulnerable populations who have not developed these antibodies,” said Bal. The government will need to do antibody testing to get the baseline area-wise data on positive cases, said Dhara. “This then tells us who needs a vaccine and if a vaccine has been effective in that area,” he added.


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