Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 May 2020 23:57

^^There was one interview on Fox News, where an individual had to take (or did an experiment...not sure) 2 consecutive AB tests. One was the kit from Abbott & the other from Quest Diagnostics. It seems like he got positive result from one & a negative result from the other. Apparently, Roche AB kit is considered as the Gold Standard and he was yet to take test using Roche kit. I could not see Roche kits in the list of approved ones by ICMR.

Anyways, I think India is slow wrt AB testing for surveillance. I hope the Indian docs here could inform us the reasoning behind the reluctance.

Also, BBMP has got its act together and have been updating the BLR Covid Dashboard more or less frequently. In the latest version, they show containment zones sizes. Pretty cool...

BBMP Covid Dashboard

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 20 May 2020 02:22

saumitra_j wrote:Apologies if this is a repost: Article on Antibody Testing in India


I have to point out that the above is a non-sense of an article. It just indulges in severe what-aboutery without much basis. Problem is to call that what-aboutery out and as a proper rebuttal is time consuming and energy draining.

And BTW, the Chinese firms were rightly blacklisted. And yes, coming up with an anti-body test takes time. Currently, it is done in the lab setting. And it is costly.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 20 May 2020 08:20

https://www.timesnownews.com/health/art ... ght/594091

Dr Tarek Alam, the head of the medical department at the Bangladesh Medical College Hospital, and one of the senior members of the team, stated that a combination of the two drugs were administered to 60 patientsIvermectin is an anti-parasitic drug commonly used to cure roundworm infections, and belonging to a class of drugs known as antihelmintics. As a tetracycline, Doxycyline is often used to treat the flu and the common cold, as well as in the prevention of malaria
A team of medical doctors from Bangladesh have, reportedly, had “astounding” success in treating patients suffering from COVID-19 with two commonly used drugs, Doxycline and Ivermectin.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 20 May 2020 09:43

Maharashtra is becoming unmanageable. Kolkota has similar density as Mumbai. The numbers coming out of Kolkota are complete BS.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saumitra_j » 20 May 2020 10:13

disha wrote:I have to point out that the above is a non-sense of an article. It just indulges in severe what-aboutery without much basis. Problem is to call that what-aboutery out and as a proper rebuttal is time consuming and energy draining.

And BTW, the Chinese firms were rightly blacklisted. And yes, coming up with an anti-body test takes time. Currently, it is done in the lab setting. And it is costly.


Disha sir, I still feel the article had important nuggets of information that I could not find elsewhere; Firstly, the usual question asked is why is India not doing anti body testing and if you ignore the what aboutery in the article the answer is pretty clear: The Chinese kits failed and India is waiting for Indian kits (ELISA) to be mass produced. These kits are not like the rapid testing kits which are not very reliable. ELISA tests will take a day to give you the results. Important detail for us to know IMHO so that policy makers can set realistic expectations.

Second important take away for me was that policy decisions are being taken based what the professionals at ICMR suggest - important thing in an Indian context because a professional institution (ICMR) is driving things, not the ministry (babus) or the minister(politicians). Now ICMR may get some things wrong and will require corrections but it is important that such institutions work independently and bring in a level of professionalism in policy making. We are not dependent on a single individual but an institution!

Thirdly and probably not relevant to this thread: Just like the GST councils, states are completely free to take their own decisions. An important counter to people who think GOI is dictatorial in nature!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby srai » 20 May 2020 14:23


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Date: April 2, 2020
1 million cases
50,000 deaths

5% death rate average
...

Date: April 15, 2020
Over 2 million cases today
134,000 deaths

6.7% death rate average (known cases and deaths)

Known cases doubled in two weeks.

Date: April 27, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 3,055,498
Deaths: 211,035
Recovered: 918,184

6.9% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
30% Recovery average

Another million in 12-days. Recovered inching towards a million (1/3 of known infections).

Date: May 9, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 4,032,763
Deaths: 276,677
Recovered: 1,399,718

6.86% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
34.7% recovery average (known cases and recovery)

Three times in a row ... 12-to-14 days another million case



Date: May 20, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 5,000,599
Deaths: 325,156
Recovered: 1,970,918

11-days to another million
6.5% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
39.4% recovery average (known cases and recovery)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 20 May 2020 15:13

Coronavirus patients in new Chinese cluster exhibiting symptoms differently than Wuhan

Coronavirus patients in northeastern China are reportedly taking longer to recover from the virus and to exhibit symptoms than patients from the original outbreak in Wuhan, one of China’s top doctors told state TV Tuesday.

Dr. Qiu Haibo, who is taking care of patients in the northeast, said the more than two-week incubation period is making it hard to keep the virus from spreading and could show the virus is changing, Bloomberg reported.

Patients in the northeast also mostly have lung damage rather than in their heart, kidney and stomach as in Wuhan.

At least 46 cases have popped up in three cities north of North Korea's border -- Jilin City, Shulan, and Shengyang -- and are under lockdown again. Of those infected, 26 have been hospitalized, according to Bloomberg.

Last month, a study from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China, found the virus had mutated into at least 30 different genetic mutations.

"Drug and vaccine development, while urgent, need to take the impact of these accumulating mutations, especially the founding mutations, into account to avoid potential pitfall," the study said.

The differences, however, could be because only the sickest patients were being treated when the virus first overwhelmed Wuhan and doctors can now pay more attention to the way symptoms manifest.

“The longer period during which infected patients show no symptoms has created clusters of family infections,” Qui added, according to Bloomberg.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 20 May 2020 20:57

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01092-3
Cautious optimism on vaccines at best

clinical trials do not mean guaranteed success on humans, no RNA vaccine so far licenced anywhere in the world. This will be the first of its kind.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 20 May 2020 21:43

hand wash with soap: 6-10 times a day
Washing your hands at least six to 10 times a day makes catching infections such as coronavirus much less likely
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52720089

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 20 May 2020 22:05

vijayk wrote:https://www.timesnownews.com/health/article/bangladeshi-doctors-succeed-in-curing-covid-19-could-a-likely-coronavirus-treatment-be-hiding-in-plain-sight/594091

Dr Tarek Alam, the head of the medical department at the Bangladesh Medical College Hospital, and one of the senior members of the team, stated that a combination of the two drugs were administered to 60 patientsIvermectin is an anti-parasitic drug commonly used to cure roundworm infections, and belonging to a class of drugs known as antihelmintics. As a tetracycline, Doxycyline is often used to treat the flu and the common cold, as well as in the prevention of malaria
A team of medical doctors from Bangladesh have, reportedly, had “astounding” success in treating patients suffering from COVID-19 with two commonly used drugs, Doxycline and Ivermectin.


On Doxycline and Ivermectin - Can Dr. Randeep or anyone comment if this is being tried in India with people in Hospitals? Are there any results?

My cousin (Doctor) says these were used for H1N1 and SARS and being tried.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 20 May 2020 22:06

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 843069.cms

Union health minister Harsh Vardhan to head WHO executive board

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 20 May 2020 22:32

hanumadu wrote:Maharashtra is becoming unmanageable. Kolkota has similar density as Mumbai. The numbers coming out of Kolkota are complete BS.

Tell me sir!
I live in Kolkata. All markets opened. No night curfew.
I guess I should come across streets full of corpses the moment step outside.
I even took my car out for a quick reconnaissance yesterday. And will start increasing the radius gradually.
I am hoping to see the tell tale signs of post apocalyptic Kolkata.

Every city and state has managed their numbers, some less and some more.

In the my neck of woods, nobody likes TMC nor votes them, so I would expect to hear something from the grapevine. None yet.

Please stop unnecessary demonizing a state and stop spreading FUD.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby suryag » 20 May 2020 23:27

Sroy Sir you are taking offence where none is intended. If Mumbai and Kolkata are cities with similar density isnt it logical to expect similar numbers? unless of course someone in Kolkata has magically found a cure. Please reduce your sensitivity in general Kolkata is as much my city as is Hyderabad or BLR

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 20 May 2020 23:45

^^
Point is that the TMC govt. fudged numbers, but that alone cannot account for vast difference in infection and dead numbers between Mumbai and Kolkata, if comparative population sizes and density are sole criteria.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 20 May 2020 23:54

In Kolkata the lock down was accepted by people by and large.
And Kolkata, despite its population density (which is mostly in old areas ... which means legal tenements with proper amenities ) do not have large slum clusters. Slums are there, littered around in manageable sizes.

And FWIW, I returned to Kolkata via the last flight that was available from Ahmedabad, I distinctly remember most of the incoming passengers were IT crowd from HYD/BLR/NCR. Hardly the sort that was carrying infection in the last week of March.

So, seemingly low numbers from Kolkata has nothing to do with number fudging that TMC govt. did. Even without number fudging the numbers would have remained low.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby shaun » 21 May 2020 00:03

SRoy wrote:^^
Point is that the TMC govt. fudged numbers, but that alone cannot account for vast difference in infection and dead numbers between Mumbai and Kolkata, if comparative population sizes and density are sole criteria.


Yes its futile comparing Kolkata and Mumbai based on population density as it's not the only factor for rise in Chinese virus positive, there are many factors , didi comparatively better managed than maha govt , less international exposure/ flights ( I guess it's less than even Hyderabad and Bangalore ) , people are more cautious . But information is curtailed , top down approach , some indicators are not good , like nurses leaving WB in hundreds , mortality rate highest .

Then there are this “Treatment protocols say that asymptomatic patients or mildly symptomatic ones can stay at home if they do not have comorbidity,” said a Bengal health department official. “The huge inflow of influenza and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients is clearly a run on the hospitals. So, at times, doctors do not suggest admission. But it varies from hospital to hospital,” the official added.
We have a very limited number of masks, not even one for each. We needed close to 300. We are yet to get that,” a staffer at Howrah District General Hospital said.

A doctor said the government had “issued guidelines for reusing PPE, but we are not able to do so”. “These PPE can’t be reused or we do not have enough means to sanitise these PPE again,” the doctor added.

According to the health bulletin issued Sunday, 22,950 PPE and 15,550 N95 masks were sent to Howrah district, but the doctor contested these figures. “These numbers must be for media bulletins. We do not see that many being used in actuality,” the doctor said.

In Uluberia, the ESI hospital, a Level-I facility, has 25 Covid-19 patients, but no oxygen support or ventilator, and the doctors and heath staff were seen moving without masks.


Although it might be far fetched , with the diktat that "asymptomatic patients or mildly symptomatic ones can stay at home if they do not have comorbidity,” the suspected positive patients won't show up in the data , the catch is national mortality rate is 3% approx , the most serious will be in hospital and the deceased will be in the list and so the high mortality rate. The balance 97 % who became healthy at home will never make it to the list of positive cases. Maybe the reason behind mismanagement of death figures initially.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 21 May 2020 02:46

SRoy wrote:
hanumadu wrote:Maharashtra is becoming unmanageable. Kolkota has similar density as Mumbai. The numbers coming out of Kolkota are complete BS.

Tell me sir!
I live in Kolkata. All markets opened. No night curfew.
I guess I should come across streets full of corpses the moment step outside.
I even took my car out for a quick reconnaissance yesterday. And will start increasing the radius gradually.
I am hoping to see the tell tale signs of post apocalyptic Kolkata.

Every city and state has managed their numbers, some less and some more.

In the my neck of woods, nobody likes TMC nor votes them, so I would expect to hear something from the grapevine. None yet.

Please stop unnecessary demonizing a state and stop spreading FUD.


You are being unnecessarily sensitive. How am I attacking the state when it is the administration that has to take responsibility for managing the crisis and giving out the correct numbers. The mortality rate of WB is twice than the national average. That means the cases must be at least twice as many, even if we believe the mortality numbers are correct. All states that are not managing well have been criticized here on this forum including Gujarat. UT has been criticized no end here and on SM. Heck in the very post you quoted, I mentioned MH too. No body said I am demonizing MH.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 21 May 2020 10:57

vijayk wrote:
vijayk wrote:https://www.timesnownews.com/health/article/bangladeshi-doctors-succeed-in-curing-covid-19-could-a-likely-coronavirus-treatment-be-hiding-in-plain-sight/594091



On Doxycline and Ivermectin - Can Dr. Randeep or anyone comment if this is being tried in India with people in Hospitals? Are there any results?

My cousin (Doctor) says these were used for H1N1 and SARS and being tried.


-asymptomatic or those with very mild symptoms are treated with HCQ.. One broad spectrum antibiotic like Amoxyclav/ cefixim / Azithromycin is usually added..

- Those who have red flag signs like raised d diamer / SpO2 less than 88% , neutrophil/ lymphocyte ratio greater than 3.5 are given Steroid ( methylprednisolone)

- Pts with increasing symptoms recieve iv antibiotics with increasing spectrum/ efficacy.. Usually ceftriaxone , piperacillin tazobactum in that order.. Pts with severe LRTI /ARDS receive meropenam

- pts with comorbidities, with respiratory failure or those with raised levels of TROP I , LDH, CPK MB, d diamer also receive Low molecular weight heparin.. Heparin and methylprednisolone is now being included early in course of treatment if there is suspicion of pt detoriating..

- Many physicians are also including metronidazole..

- Doxy and Ivermectin are not included in protocols yet but few pts I know received it..

- All pts except those with contraindications receive HCQ

- Pts who develop ARDS , multiorgan failure and can not be given HCQ are given Lopinavir/ Ritonavir .. Oseltamivir is also widely used

- Many govt employees are distributed homeopathic medicines like Arcenic album.. I dont see it any more effective than placebo.. But I see no harm in using it..

- Severe pts receive cocktail of antibiotcs, steroids, anti coagulants and other supporting drugs like vitamins, antacids etc.. It is hard to say what exactly worked in each individuals.. It is likely that different pts are benefitted by different drug/ drugs..

- Positive cases are being reported from every corner of MH .. They are mostly people who travelled from mumbai and pune.. This is indirect evidence of community spread in these two cities.. Exact scale is unknown to me.. However mass antibody survey will be needed to know it and I dont think it should be priority now.. Govt is rightly trying to save as many lives it can..We dont have resources to carry wide scale testing now..

- Antibody testing should be priority in healthcare workers.. If a doctor knows he is already immune to infection he is more likely to devote his survices .. Health workers above 50 should be kept away from work as far as possible..

- Payment cuts of heathcare workers should not be done unless it is absolute necessity.. People are burning their blood in PPE in hot humid conditions that too without Air conditioning.. They deserve at least timely full salary..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 21 May 2020 11:02

suryag wrote:Sroy Sir you are taking offence where none is intended. If Mumbai and Kolkata are cities with similar density isnt it logical to expect similar numbers? unless of course someone in Kolkata has magically found a cure. Please reduce your sensitivity in general Kolkata is as much my city as is Hyderabad or BLR


I don't think any of us know why some cities have a higher incidence of the virus than others.
My city, Bangalore, has a much lower no of cases than Chennai (closest comparable city) or Mumbai/ Delhi. There is no lack of testing or any desire to suppress cases here. Chennai is (as per people with contacts in both cities) doing a better job of contact tracing and containment than B'lore, but has far more cases. While WB can be faulted on several grounds, I don't think its lack of testing (because the positive rate is very low) or hiding deaths (they now have the highest death rate). Telangana is by far the worst in terms of tests per million. or per positive case.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 21 May 2020 13:23

‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’

ALEXIS C. MADRIGALROBINSON MEYER
12:35 AM ET

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture of the state of the pandemic. We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether someone has ever had the virus. The upshot is that the government’s disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test people who are sick with COVID-19. The agency confirmed to The Atlantic on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests, even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for different reasons.

This is not merely a technical error. States have set quantitative guidelines for reopening their economies based on these flawed data points.

Several states—including Pennsylvania, the site of one of the country’s largest outbreaks, as well as Texas, Georgia, and Vermont—are blending the data in the same way. Virginia likewise mixed viral and antibody test results until last week, but it reversed course and the governor apologized for the practice after it was covered by the Richmond Times-Dispatch and The Atlantic. Maine similarly separated its data on Wednesday; Vermont authorities claimed they didn’t even know they were doing this.

The widespread use of the practice means that it remains difficult to know exactly how much the country’s ability to test people who are actively sick with COVID-19 has improved.

“You’ve got to be kidding me,” Ashish Jha, the K. T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard and the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told us when we described what the CDC was doing. “How could the CDC make that mistake? This is a mess.”

Viral tests, taken by nose swab or saliva sample, look for direct evidence of a coronavirus infection. They are considered the gold standard for diagnosing someone with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus: State governments consider a positive viral test to be the only way to confirm a case of COVID-19. Antibody tests, by contrast, use blood samples to look for biological signals that a person has been exposed to the virus in the past.

A negative test result means something different for each test. If somebody tests negative on a viral test, a doctor can be relatively confident that they are not sick right now; if somebody tests negative on an antibody test, they have probably never been infected with or exposed to the coronavirus. (Or they may have been given a false result—antibody tests are notoriously less accurate on an individual level than viral tests.) The problem is that the CDC is clumping negative results from both tests together in its public reporting.

Mixing the two tests makes it much harder to understand the meaning of positive tests, and it clouds important information about the U.S. response to the pandemic, Jha said. “The viral testing is to understand how many people are getting infected, while antibody testing is like looking in the rearview mirror. The two tests are totally different signals,” he told us. By combining the two types of results, the CDC has made them both “uninterpretable,” he said.[..]

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 21 May 2020 13:36

Dr. Ratnadip, thanks for your continuing updates...

COVID-19: Controversy on origin of virus resurfaces, thanks to a new study

The controversy on the origin of the COVID-19 virus has resurfaced, thanks to a new study that found the virus has an unusually high efficiency to bind to the human cells.

The modelling research showed that the COVID-19 virus was particularly well adapted to bind to a specific human protein (ACE2) better than any other species tested by the scientists.

"This could either happen by chance or by design. Either it was a lucky fluke for the virus to have such high human binding though it had never encountered a human previously or the virus was adapted to bind human cells, e.g. by human cell culture selection or genetic manipulation," lead researcher Nikolai Petrovsky at the Flinders University, Bedford Park, Australia told DH.

"Our data does not distinguish between any of these possibilities, and nor does any other data that exists. So both possibilities remain open – this is why an enquiry is critical to try and identify the most likely explanation for the origins of the virus," he added.

The origin of the COVID-19 virus remained a subject of intense speculation from the very beginning with many political leaders including the US President Donald Trump claiming it was created in a top secret Chinese laboratory from where the virus was released in the wild.

The latest to make such an allegation is the Union Minister Nitin Gadkari who in two separate interviews last week claimed that COVID-19 was an artificial virus made in a laboratory.

However, the Chinese government and the World Health Organisation denied the charges.

"The WHO encourages researchers around the world to join forces to understand COVID-19 origins. Many researchers have been able to look at its genomic features - and they have found that the evidence does not support the idea that the underlying virus is a laboratory construct" said Tarik Jašarević, WHO spokesperson.

The Australian researchers differ in their opinion.

"There is no evidence that this virus came from either an animal or from a laboratory, so we should either rule both possibilities out or rule them both in. As a scientist we have to say both scenarios remain possible, till we rule one out. This has not been done yet," said Petrovsky who is researching a vaccine against the pandemic.

The study is not yet peer reviewed and made public by putting it on a pre-print server.

Other independent scientists are of the opinion that while the current level of scientific studies indicates more towards animal origin of the virus, new scientific evidence can tilt the theory on the other side.

"The (Petrovsky's) research is an exhaustive in-silico analysis that gives important insights into the evolution of COVID-19. The work provides clarity to how adaptive evolution has worked leading to this pandemic virus," commented Shahid Jameel, an eminent Indian virologist who is the chief executive officer of the Department of Biotechnology and Wellcome Trust India Alliance.

Seeking an inquiry to establish the origin of the virus, Petrovsky said it was wrong to exclude a possibility when that had not been scientifically ruled out.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 21 May 2020 14:45

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
Some wacko in China just released a statement blaming everybody other than China for the Virus which has now killed hundreds of thousands of people. Please explain to this dope that it was the “incompetence of China”, and nothing else, that did this mass Worldwide killing!
6:05 PM · May 20, 2020

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Karan M » 21 May 2020 15:23

Looks like the five eyes have decided that the Aussies will lead the charge along with the US.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aditya_V » 21 May 2020 16:20

Deans wrote:
suryag wrote:Sroy Sir you are taking offence where none is intended. If Mumbai and Kolkata are cities with similar density isnt it logical to expect similar numbers? unless of course someone in Kolkata has magically found a cure. Please reduce your sensitivity in general Kolkata is as much my city as is Hyderabad or BLR


I don't think any of us know why some cities have a higher incidence of the virus than others.
My city, Bangalore, has a much lower no of cases than Chennai (closest comparable city) or Mumbai/ Delhi. There is no lack of testing or any desire to suppress cases here. Chennai is (as per people with contacts in both cities) doing a better job of contact tracing and containment than B'lore, but has far more cases. While WB can be faulted on several grounds, I don't think its lack of testing (because the positive rate is very low) or hiding deaths (they now have the highest death rate). Telangana is by far the worst in terms of tests per million. or per positive case.


Tn has the highest testing of COvid 19 in the country and hence most cases reported

https://nhmtn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/095ad0a1c0254b058fa36b32d1ab1977

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 21 May 2020 17:05

Karan M wrote:Looks like the five eyes have decided that the Aussies will lead the charge along with the US.


looks like the khunnas of the OBOR is playing some part in this


Over 100 states have signed up to support australia’s call for an international COVID-19 inquiry at the World Health Assembly.

The EU draft resolution now has 116 co-sponsors, after the entire African Group & its member states joined the initial 62 countries


Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arvin » 21 May 2020 17:21

Among India's neighbours Burma, Nepal, Iran , sri lanka Afganistan and Toilet missing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rsatchi » 21 May 2020 17:37

arvin wrote:Among India's neighbours Burma, Nepal, Iran , sri lanka Afganistan and Toilet missing.

All being black-mailed.
But some one has to remind them Gabbar ka dialogue : 'Jo dhar gaya Samjo vo mar gaya' :lol: :lol:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby schinnas » 21 May 2020 18:11

Test per million is an utterly meaningless metric used by ignorant reporters who do not understand ABC of statistics. Since only targeted testing is done, the key metric to watch out for is tests per positive cases. This is the metric (also called as test positivity rate) used by experts all over the world.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Primus » 21 May 2020 19:01

To me the most important number is the community fatality rate, i.e. number of people dying from this with the total population of the area being the denominator.

Nothing is perfect, every statistic is only as accurate as the collection method and sensitivity/specificity of the test itself. Given these variables, and understanding perfectly that in different parts of the world these will vary widely - add government coverup and fudging of the numbers by vested interests - and there is no single metric that truly reflects the scale of this tragedy.

Even then, I would really be interested in looking at the community death rate, my feeling is that it will be the most important number.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 21 May 2020 19:56

Primus wrote:To me the most important number is the community fatality rate, i.e. number of people dying from this with the total population of the area being the denominator.

Nothing is perfect, every statistic is only as accurate as the collection method and sensitivity/specificity of the test itself. Given these variables, and understanding perfectly that in different parts of the world these will vary widely - add government coverup and fudging of the numbers by vested interests - and there is no single metric that truly reflects the scale of this tragedy.

Even then, I would really be interested in looking at the community death rate, my feeling is that it will be the most important number.


I agree fully with you.. On this parameter we are doing much better than other developed nations..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby yensoy » 21 May 2020 20:57

Aditya_V wrote:Tn has the highest testing of COvid 19 in the country and hence most cases reported
https://nhmtn.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/095ad0a1c0254b058fa36b32d1ab1977


Right, but testing has to be targeted and right-sized. If there are few additional cases with increased testing, then those additional tests can be deemed to be unnecessary. If we were to consider a 4% positive cases the right number for testing (i.e. we test 25 targeted individuals for every positive case), then TN has actually slipped a little in the recent few days, and should be testing more. MH, GJ much much more. In Delhi's case the number of tests per million of population is already quite high (approaching 1% of the population).

http://covidindiaupdates.in/testing.php has good graphics to understand where the states stand. We may be closer to herd immunity in some parts of the country - the low fatality rates and high count of asymptomatic cases indicate that on the average we may have good immunity, and/or the local virus strain is a benign one.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 21 May 2020 20:59

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

NHS staff being enrolled to see effectiveness of HCQ in preventing nCV

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby prasannasimha » 21 May 2020 21:18

Deans wrote:
suryag wrote:Sroy Sir you are taking offence where none is intended. If Mumbai and Kolkata are cities with similar density isnt it logical to expect similar numbers? unless of course someone in Kolkata has magically found a cure. Please reduce your sensitivity in general Kolkata is as much my city as is Hyderabad or BLR


I don't think any of us know why some cities have a higher incidence of the virus than others.
My city, Bangalore, has a much lower no of cases than Chennai (closest comparable city) or Mumbai/ Delhi. There is no lack of testing or any desire to suppress cases here. Chennai is (as per people with contacts in both cities) doing a better job of contact tracing and containment than B'lore, but has far more cases. While WB can be faulted on several grounds, I don't think its lack of testing (because the positive rate is very low) or hiding deaths (they now have the highest death rate). Telangana is by far the worst in terms of tests per million. or per positive case.

It false that Chennai has better case contact tracing- Bangalore's case contact tracing is very robust . I know from first hand experience

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 21 May 2020 21:25

This is perhaps the first article on long term impact of nCV.

From cognitive dysfunction to amnesia, confusion, chronic fatigue, weakness, loss of strength, loss of smell & taste, low exercise tolerance, impending doom & death , lasting for months after recovery from Covid!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... go-months/

While the vast majority of those who contract Covid-19 will make a full recovery, there is increasing concern about a small but significant number of patients whose symptoms persist weeks and even months after first falling ill.

These long-term symptoms are often “bizarre”, say experts, and range from strange pains and fevers to debilitating headaches and lethargy. They can impact those who suffer only mildly from the disease initially and there may be a link with exercise and the recurrence of symptoms.

According to the latest research from King’s College London, around one in 20 Covid patients experience long-term symptoms for at least a month, sometimes longer.

One in ten still have symptoms after three weeks, despite the median time for recovery for most mild cases being around 14 days.


Professor Tim Spector of King’s College heads the team which has developed the UK’s biggest symptom tracking app and believes the long-term impact of the virus is being underestimated.

“The Government is telling people that this is just like the flu and only checking on a few symptoms, but it’s not at all like the flu,” he told the Telegraph. “For many people it can linger on; many people are saying they’ve had it for over three months now.”

Describing Covid-19 as one of the “strangest diseases I’ve ever come across”, Prof Spector is concerned that we are “underestimating” the virus by failing to collect comprehensive data on long-term, milder symptoms charted in the graphic below.


“There are people emailing me every day saying that no one is interested,” he said. “Nobody is giving any statistics on this and the Government isn’t collecting anything. Our app has been an alternative to this narrow view of the NHS 111 service, which if you ring up they only really talk about flu-like symptoms, but hopefully we are changing that.”

Calling the UK’s recent decision to add asomia - loss of smell - to the official Covid-19 symptoms list “long overdue”, Prof Spector adds that breathlessness and fevers are also recurring symptoms in patients struggling with the “long tail” form of the virus.

Paul Garner, a professor of infectious diseases at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, is one of those one in 20 people still experiencing symptoms - over eight weeks after first contracting the virus.

“Normally with viruses you’re ill for a few days and then you get better, but with this one it comes back at you and slaps you around the face time and time again with different symptoms,” he said.

Despite just feeling “a bit strange” and tired during the first two days of experiencing symptoms, Prof Garner’s symptoms quickly progressed to a tightness in his chest and shortness of breath.

“I thought I’d just sit it out. My friend, who is advising the Government, said to expect to be ill for around seven to ten days,” he said. “But it went on and on, and I had this incredible period where I actually thought I was dying. I was lying in bed and couldn’t lift my arms; I started passing out while horizontal; my heart was racing. And then two hours later I kind of woke up.”

Still experiencing symptoms over two months later, Prof Garner took to social media to find others who are still struggling with symptoms of the virus and quickly found that he was far from the only one. After writing a blog post for the British Medical Journal about his experience, he received a “tidal wave” of correspondence, with many people saying they thought they were going “insane”.

“All the focus was on people on ventilators, but there’s this huge chunk of people like me managing at home, largely unseen,” he said. “The other thing I noticed was that a number of people didn’t believe that they were ill, but then you talk to them and they are going through hell in their heads. They think they’re crazy. So people are very lonely with this bizarre illness.”


Drawing parallels between Covid-19 and chronic fatigue syndrome, Prof Garner warns against taking strenuous exercise on the road to recovery. “Every day I woke up with a headache, and then on day 44 I started to feel a little better. I did a little cycle, then a HIIT class online, and then I was in bed for the next week. I don’t think people are aware of this relationship to exercise.”

“We know that from ordinary pneumonia it takes people several months to get better,” he added. “I think the important thing from my side was how many people there are like me, who’ve been really quite unwell at home. And we aren’t even a case on Government statistics - I’m not even counted.”

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby jaysimha » 22 May 2020 12:56

DRDO develops UV disinfection tower for sanitising coronavirus-prone areas
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 503039.ece

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 22 May 2020 20:03

COVID-19 cases to peak in country between June 21-28: Study

India may witness COVID-19 cases peaking between June 21 and 28 with maximum daily positive cases to be around 7,000-7,500 in this period, a study by a team of researchers said. The study has predicted that confirmed COVID-19 cases reported daily will show a rising graph till the end of June.

"A clear downward trend in the confirmed cases is likely to be observed each day from the second week of July," Nandadulal Bairagi, a senior professor of Jadavpur University who was involved in the project told PTI. With measures in place and increased testing, a gradual flattening of the trajectory is expected within October, the researcher said.

The study was conducted by Bairagi, Professor and Coordinator Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology (CMBE), Jadavpur University, and five other researchers.

The study, based on a mathematical model approved by the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB) of the Government of India, used deep machine learning algorithms along with a mathematical model for analysing and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in India with data being taken from the https://www.covid19india.org/state website.

"We divided the population of a designated geographical area into seven compartments based on the epidemiological class of Covid-19 and WHO prescribed minimum requirements of infection prevention and control (IPC) strategy to reduce transmission," he said.

Bairagi said, the total number of infected persons since the outbreak of coronavirus in the country "will touch the five lakh figure in first week of October and it will then start showing a perceptible declining trend."

One of the factors for this high number could be a large number of asymptomatic persons roaming around with each having the potential to transmit the infection to two-three more persons.

Just think of it. The contamination was contained after 76 days of lockdown in Wuhan, the origin point of the coronavirus pandemic. But we in India are witnessing a spike in active cases despite the lockdown nearing two months in few days time," he said.

In the absence of any specific drug and vaccine, India must continue its nationwide lockdown to prevent person-to-person transmission of coronavirus while looking for ways to start economic activities, the senior researcher said.

"Public transport must be avoided due to difficulties in contact tracing, random testing has to be increased and time for diagnosis has to be reduced for early detection...."

"We have recommended to the government that lockdown may be partially withdrawn in green and orange zones after the last week of June, but it must be continued in red-zone regions of the states concerned. Strict surveillance must be continued after partial withdrawal of lockdown to avoid the second wave of COVID-19," he said.{No way any person in Government especially States will be OK with the above. Also most of the red zones are the cities where economic activities are huge. Closure of these cities will hit revenue to States & Central Governments hard. Very little chance of the above happening.}

Asked about their observation on difficulty in contact tracing in case of contamination in public transport, he explained, "In a hospital or similar place where the persons who have contacted the infection can be traced, you can trace the origin and quarantine every body else who came in touch with the primary contact."

But in a bus or train, there can be many asymptomatic persons who will spread the infection and then get down at their stoppages, he said.

Apart from Bairagi, CMBE researcher Abhijit Majumder, Dr. Debadatta Adak of MBB University, Agartala, Dr. Tapas Kumar Bala of Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Kusumdevi Sundarlal Dugar Jain Dental College and Hospital, Dr Abhijit Paul and Dr Samrat Chatterjee of Translational Health Science and Technology Institute, Faridabad were involved in the research.

The interim report of the research has already been sent to the SERB, he said.

People who have WFH facility are lucky as they can minimize exposure chances at least till the flattening of the curve has started. Meanwhile, our immediate hope is to find a drug combo which will improve or increase recovery rate.

Dr. Ratnadip, please give periodic updates on Covid status in India. Per your knowledge, has any medical team outside of Bangladesh has been able to replicate the results they obtained by using a combo of Doxy & Ivermectin. The doc from Bangladesh had mentioned they are in the process of preparing a paper to release their findings (& hopefully exact drug combinations) & probably it is not out yet.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sreerudra » 23 May 2020 00:09

https://www.bitchute.com/video/IB3ijQuLkkUr/

I want to hear from the members on what you think about this video.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 23 May 2020 00:56

sreerudra wrote:https://www.bitchute.com/video/IB3ijQuLkkUr/

I want to hear from the members on what you think about this video.

I think this was already discussed. She is an anti-vaxer and a conspiracy theorist.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 23 May 2020 04:16

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

Lancet publishes observational study (multinational registry analysis, whatever that means) demonising HCQ.
Summary of study > Benefit of HCQ could not be ascertained while HCQ was associated with arrhythmia

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 23 May 2020 06:23

MH consistently having more new cases per day than New York. They should at least bring laws to make wearing mask compulsory and fine those who don't.


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