Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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IndraD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 30 May 2020 18:24

https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... r-covid-19

Questions raised over hydroxychloroquine study which caused WHO to halt trials for Covid-19

ghost data, sites used to make up details for dubious study against HCQ which prompted WHO to stop HCQ trial.
Lancet has contacted lead author Mandeep Mehra (a cardiologist based at Boston) to come clean.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 30 May 2020 18:48

Sounds fishy as hell, and I think it's way too premature for WHO to halt HCQ trials. Are there any HCQ RCTs running in India? I highly suspect that it's effective when given early and perhaps even as a prophylaxis, but a lack of evidence is both frustrating and puzzling. While I can see how in the US it can be politicized since Trump touted it and the Dems are determined to strike down anything Trump says, what's going on in the rest of the world? I don't really buy the big pharma thing, the world has literally lost trillions of dollars already and is on track to lose trillions more. More than the worth of the entire pharmaceutical industry.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 30 May 2020 18:56

arshyam wrote:^^ So basically a hit job on HCQ. Big Pharma strikes, again.


Exactly.. HCQ is drug with very long half life ( between 22 to 30 days).. Currently many pts take it for years ex lupus, Rheumatoid arthritis.. very long course is also used in chronic amoebic infection.. maximum limit for Cumulative dose is 100 Grams in such pts.. This indicates it is reasonably safe in large continuous doses too.. In comparison doses used for covid prophylaxis are minimal..Due to very long half life it is likely to give protection for longer time even if a dose or two are missed.. In India where most of healthcare workers are on Hcq prophylaxis, mortality and incidence of severe disease in doctors and nurses is very low.. Most severe infections in doctors have happened in OT, where aerosol generation ,viral load and duration of exposure is likely high..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arshyam » 30 May 2020 19:31

DavidD wrote:I don't really buy the big pharma thing, the world has literally lost trillions of dollars already and is on track to lose trillions more. More than the worth of the entire pharmaceutical industry.

Yes, but how much of that has benefited the pharma industry? Beyond the reduction in hospital patients, Big Pharma has not been that impacted, but they haven't profited either. So there is definite benefit in getting new drugs approved quickly, so they can cite accelerated production costs due to lockdown/pandemic conditions and charge higher prices, at least in the US.

Against this, stands an old and humble HCQ, which costs, what, ₹5 (6 cents) per tablet in India. US rates are perhaps higher, but by not much, I'd think.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 30 May 2020 20:17

Surgisphere which collated and examined the data of 1 lakh patients from all over the world has "two" employees. One Employee is a Modelling Girl (kid you not) and another Author of study in Lancet.

ICMR, India has conducted 3 studies in which HCQ has been found effective.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 30 May 2020 20:37

It seems like ICMR is gonna write to WHO about its report about HCQ.

ICMR writes to WHO, says international HCQ trial dosages four times higher than Indian trials

The ICMR overseeing the country's response to the coronavirus pandemic has written to the WHO disagreeing with HCQ assessment and citing differences in dosage standards between Indian and international trials.

New Delhi: After the Union Health Ministry expressed reservations about the World Health Organisation's (WHO) advisory to suspend hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) usage in treating COVID-19 patients, now, India's nodal government agency ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) overseeing the country's response to the coronavirus pandemic has also written to the WHO citing differences in dosage standards between Indian and international trials that could explain the efficacy issues of HCQ in treating COVID-19 patients.

Currently, as per protocols set by the Indian government to treat severe coronavirus patients requiring ICU management, HCQ dosages are administered in the following way- 1st day a heavy dose of 400mg HCQ dose once in the morning and one at night, followed by 200 mg HCQ one in the morning and one at night to be followed for the next four days. The total dosage administered to a patient in 5 days, therefore, amounts to 2400 mg.

Speaking to ANI on the condition of anonymity, a Health Ministry official explained the context behind the ICMR and Health Ministry disagreeing with WHO's assessment, the primary point being the wide gap in dosage levels given in India and internationally."Internationally in Solidarity trial COVID-19 patients are being administered with--800 mg x 2 loading doses 6 hours apart followed by 400 mg x 2 doses per day for 10 days. The total dosage given to a patient over 11 days is about 9600 mg which is four times higher than the dose we are giving to our patients," informed the official.

This indicates that in our treatment protocol, the efficacy of HCQ is good and patients are recovering quickly with less amount of dosage being administered," said the official.

Buoyed by the preliminary success observed in the treatment of COVID-19 patients through these HCQ tablets, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has written to the WHO.

In a letter via an email, Dr Sheela Godbole, National Coordinator of the WHO-India Solidarity Trial and Head of the Division of Epidemiology, ICMR-National AIDS Research Institute has written to Dr Soumya Swaminathan, Chief Scientist at World Health Organization.

In a letter, Dr Godbole stated: "There was no reason to suspend the trial for safety concern."

When contacted Dr Godbole, she said: "Only one arm of the Solidarity trial by WHO has temporary been paused for a time being i.e. HCQ arm, other arms of the clinical trial are still active."

On Thursday, Dr VK Paul, Member Niti Aayog and Chairman of empowered group 1 said: "When we see the present evidence of HCQ, there are fewer side-effects...We have studied HCQ drug very closely with our scientists and hence as per the latest government guidelines--HCQ drug can be given to frontline workers and severe coronavirus patients. However, these guidelines would be reviewed from time to time," said Paul.

UK's stand

A UK study into HCQ as a COVID-19 treatment is to continue despite the WHO suspending its trial, underway in several countries, due to safety concerns. HCQ is one of the drugs in Oxford's RECOVERY (Randomised Evaluation of Covid-19 therapy trial) study, Professor Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Global Health in the Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, said in a statement.

"In response to that paper, we looked very carefully at our data over the weekend, to make sure we are not putting patients at risk. Since RECOVERY patients are randomised, our data are much less vulnerable to the biases that plague studies that use routine health care data," the statement read.

An independent committee has looked at our data and did not see any safety concerns. We discussed our findings with Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Authority, who have agreed with our interpretation that the data provide reassurance that continued enrolment into the HCQ arm is safe and that we should press ahead with getting a reliable answer on hydroxychloroquine through the RECOVERY trial," the statement further read.


With mostly resumption of normal activities, I fear in increase of cases only. I think probably by June end, we might see a case like Dr. Ratnadip mentioned where HCQ being prescribed enmasse as prophylatic to reduce Covid cases. Of course, prescribing enmasse has its own set of challenges. Currently, I believe ICMR has stated that HCQ should be administered under strict medical supervision. The doc should run a ECG prior to administering HCQ and I guess a ECG should be conducted after completion of the course. Doing these checks enmasse would be a challenge.

I dunno how effective and safe this will be, but there are a bunch of ECG apps available for smartphones. I believe for some, leads are needed. One of them are trying to get their results validated as well. It is possible that these apps can be used to monitor people during HCQ administration for any cardiac abnormalities. But the challange of interpreting the results by a lay person/patient correctly will remain.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 30 May 2020 21:19

disha wrote:
Bart S wrote:GJ seems to have a severe administrative failure with one hospital alone having 800+ deaths.


This is a special community hospital. Special community needs to come out of their ghettoized outlook. 80% of GJ cases are in Ahmedabad and it is concentrated special community wards.

Sad reality, but once stones start flying., It is difficult to convince your local health worker to put their lives at risk against stones, thook (spits) to even test.


Those thookars seriously made the problem much worse in India. Yesterday was ~8000 cases and 269 deaths countrywide. India could have got this under control a month ago. Instead lockdowns have to keep getting extended.

Question is why there is higher CFR in a special community.


My guess is, severity of disease (and hence death rate) correlates very well with exposure. Milder exposures result in less severe disease, if your cultural habits make sure you get multiple exposures every day, then.... My own personal theory is that's what went wrong in kissing cultures like Spain, Italy, and France. Thankfully, all of those countries are on the downswing now. Seems to be the same in the UK.

Thookar... mere tann ko... kiya tune... kya ishaara

In 1918, communities which stayed isolated escaped the first wave relatively unscathed. When the virus finally made it to those communities, they again got away easy - maybe the virus had mutated by then. Hope that's the case in September, everybody is so focused on the current wave right now, September is 4 months away. However, Brazil is already going through its winter wave (it's nearly peak winter there), and it seems that the wave might be slowing down there as well.

Modi's strategy seems to be the right one, looking at the 1918 experience. Initial lockdown and isolation, get things under control, then work with empirical data to identify hotspots and selectively lock them down. Hopefully the second wave will be milder, and the overall death rate will be a lot less. It's true that lockdowns only spread out the area under the deaths curve, but this assumes unchanged virus characteristics. If the virus mutates into a less virulent form (most likely scenario with these viruses) then a lockdown might very well save a lot of lives. The second wave in 1918 was a lot more devastating than the first, but that is mostly attributed to the extraordinary conditions at the end of the Great War (later termed as the First World War) - and we don't have that right now.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 30 May 2020 21:58

Lancet carries out correction, republishes, sticks to the outcome of anti HCQ study https://www.wsj.com/articles/medical-jo ... 1590784423

Surgisphere’s Dr. Desai said in a statement, “I’ve read the letter and have not found any valid criticism that hasn’t already been addressed” in either the Lancet’s correction or his company’s response posted on its website. He added that his firm’s database is similar to others in that it uses de-identified data and as a result can’t identify hospitals.
Global statistics show most countries fail to capture the extent of coronavirus deaths; the House passed a bill to ease the rules in the Paycheck Protection Program; UPS is adding peak surcharges for Amazon and other online sellers as delivery demand soars. WSJ’s Jason Bellini has the latest on the pandemic. Photo: Andre Coelho/Getty Images
Doctors and hospitals began using the antimalarial drugs in Covid-19 patients after several small studies outside the U.S. provided signs the drugs might help treat symptoms. More recently, though, a number of studies have raised questions about the drugs’ efficacy and safety for fighting Covid-19.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has warned about using the drugs against Covid-19, urging that they be used only in clinical trials and on hospitalized patients. In March the agency allowed for their use in certain Covid-19 patients on an emergency basis.
As a result of the Lancet study, the World Health Organization this week paused enrolling patients in clinical trials testing hydroxychloroquine. France also banned the use of the drug as a treatment for Covid-19 patients.
The Lancet study wasn’t the most scientifically rigorous kind of assessment because patients weren’t randomly assigned to receive either malaria drug or neither, and treatment wasn’t given under carefully controlled conditions. The authors of the study wrote that such rigorous clinical trials are still needed.
Still, the open letter blames the Lancet study for hurting enrollment of randomized clinical trials testing antimalarials. Dozens of such trials are under way, including by some of the letter’s authors.

Enrollment in two studies led by the University of Washington slowed after the Lancet study was published, just as it had after other studies raised concerns of the drugs, said Ruanne Barnabas, an associate professor of global health and medicine overseeing the trials.
“It’s our job then to talk to people about what these studies mean,” said Dr. Barnabas, who signed the letter. “People really want us to have treatment and prevention as soon as possible. They volunteer for trials.”

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 31 May 2020 01:21

there seems to be a dirtier and a much larger game in play here.

sabotage and sowing seeds of doubt and discord.

are the hidden han hands manipulating that idiot tedros adhanom or are the britshits up to their usual tricks

a "professional" journal like the lancet is normally not given to issuing "corrections"


Medical Journal Lancet Issues Correction On Study That Led WHO To Pause Trial Of Anti-Malarial Drug HCQ On Covid-19 Patients






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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 31 May 2020 01:32

DavidD wrote:Sounds fishy as hell, and I think it's way too premature for WHO to halt HCQ trials. Are there any HCQ RCTs running in India? I highly suspect that it's effective when given early and perhaps even as a prophylaxis, but a lack of evidence is both frustrating and puzzling. While I can see how in the US it can be politicized since Trump touted it and the Dems are determined to strike down anything Trump says, what's going on in the rest of the world? I don't really buy the big pharma thing, the world has literally lost trillions of dollars already and is on track to lose trillions more. More than the worth of the entire pharmaceutical industry.


Pharma companies are known to promote newer molecules for profit.. similar thing has happened with anti diabetic medications.. Metformin is good enough for most of pts and is dirt cheap, still many costlier alternatives are routinely promoted.. HCQ is effective before virus has multiplied.. If we are able to administer it in time , at least in high risk populations who are unable to maintain social distancing we will save more lives than treating them after they land up in severe disease..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 31 May 2020 01:37

James Todaro, MD@JamesTodaroMD


So Surgisphere Corp was caught falsifying data for the Lancet study on hydroxychloroquine

Hospitals deny ever sharing patient data w/ this mysterious database

When asked to reveal the hospitals the data came from, Surgisphere refused

Is this real life?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 31 May 2020 01:37

राजीवः श्रीनिवासः@RajeevSrinivasa·4h
surgisphere, which allegedly supplied the alleged data, appears to be a shell company that was created by this indian american doctor just weeks ago. i read their 'tools' are simple javascript (ie very basic). there's something seriously fishy here. follow the money.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 31 May 2020 01:41

Sushant Beri@SUSHANTBERI·1h
Just another stunt to discourage the use of Indian Medicine (HCQ) which is in huge demand by countries all over the world. Chinese funding might be one behind all this.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 31 May 2020 01:46

There are theories going around about the high case numbers in Mumbai region / MH areas. Apparently, especially in the earlier days, a lot of absolutely asymptomatic people were eagerly pushed into institutional quarantine/hospital settings, in return for a "commission" from the funds that the local level bodies get from the center and state. Doctors were helpless in the face of Babu level rules, and were ultimately stretched thin by the time it came to helping those in actual need. Those in actual need are also quite high in number and that has lead to loss of many patients who could otherwise be saved. This most likely explains the so-called prevalence of cases amongst the ROP ghettos. This also keeps the fatality rate low.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 31 May 2020 02:41

DrRatnadip wrote:
DavidD wrote:Sounds fishy as hell, and I think it's way too premature for WHO to halt HCQ trials. Are there any HCQ RCTs running in India? I highly suspect that it's effective when given early and perhaps even as a prophylaxis, but a lack of evidence is both frustrating and puzzling. While I can see how in the US it can be politicized since Trump touted it and the Dems are determined to strike down anything Trump says, what's going on in the rest of the world? I don't really buy the big pharma thing, the world has literally lost trillions of dollars already and is on track to lose trillions more. More than the worth of the entire pharmaceutical industry.


Pharma companies are known to promote newer molecules for profit.. similar thing has happened with anti diabetic medications.. Metformin is good enough for most of pts and is dirt cheap, still many costlier alternatives are routinely promoted.. HCQ is effective before virus has multiplied.. If we are able to administer it in time , at least in high risk populations who are unable to maintain social distancing we will save more lives than treating them after they land up in severe disease..


Oh I'm very well aware of that, and I have no doubt that big pharma will try to promote Tocilizumab, Remdesivir, convalescent plasma etc. over HCQ. I just think that with many trillions on the line that there's no way they'd succeed in that.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 31 May 2020 10:21

Folks, avoid peddling HCQ gossip(in favour and against). Its mechanism of action has already been stated by some members here in previous pages. Accept or leave it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 31 May 2020 10:28

chetak wrote:
Sushant Beri@SUSHANTBERI·1h
Just another stunt to discourage the use of Indian Medicine (HCQ) which is in huge demand by countries all over the world. Chinese funding might be one behind all this.

"Indian" medicine?

HCQ was created by Bayer in 1934.

Khud ka "popat" banane ki adat ho gayi hai

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 31 May 2020 13:30

nvishal wrote:
chetak wrote:

"Indian" medicine?

HCQ was created by Bayer in 1934.

Khud ka "popat" banane ki adat ho gayi hai


I am sure that when Prithviraj Chauhan saw mohammad shahabuddin ghori of ghazni for the first time he said "foreigner, what foreigner" he is our guest, someone who has lost his way and we must treat him well. vasudeva kutumbakam onlee.

why must we nitpik at everything, especially when almost the world is literally begging India for HCQ.

I am very sure that there are many foreign politicos, the world over, who are simply saying "let's order more of that Indian medicine" and not a single one either mentions bayer or even knows or cares about bayer.

BTW, have you forgotten that we live in the world which was created by an abrahamic "god" who did it in six days and rested on the seventh :mrgreen:

shouldn't we be building temples to honor the guy, instead of doing what we are doing now, building temples to 33 crore other gods.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 31 May 2020 14:43

chetak wrote:
nvishal wrote:"Indian" medicine?

HCQ was created by Bayer in 1934.

Khud ka "popat" banane ki adat ho gayi hai


I am sure that when Prithviraj Chauhan saw mohammad shahabuddin ghori of ghazni for the first time he said "foreigner, what foreigner" he is our guest, someone who has lost his way and we must treat him well. vasudeva kutumbakam onlee.

why must we nitpik at everything, especially when almost the world is literally begging India for HCQ.

I am very sure that there are many foreign politicos, the world over, who are simply saying "let's order more of that Indian medicine" and not a single one either mentions bayer or even knows or cares about bayer.

BTW, have you forgotten that we live in the world which was created by an abrahamic "god" who did it in six days and rested on the seventh :mrgreen:

shouldn't we be building temples to honor the guy, instead of doing what we are doing now, building temples to 33 crore other gods.

You're trolling again

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 31 May 2020 15:49

A hit job by big pharma companies and some dodgy countries to put a spoke in the wheel thereby slowing down promising research until someone or the other big pharma private company vaccine can be developed and patented.

lancet and WHO have lost all credibility.

corruption in WHO is legendary.

So is dodgy lancet going down the same rabbit hole :mrgreen:

surgisphere is also run by an Indian sapan desai.

why are so many Indians so very keen on helping to pull down Indian efforts to find the cure for the chinese wuhan virus

In India, an NGO—People for Better Treatment (PBT), controlled by some Dr. Kunal Saha, from Ohio, USA, has filed a petition in the Supreme Court of India, questioning the recommendation for use of HCQ and a well-known broad-spectrum antibiotic-Azithromycin in treatment of the most critically-ill Covid-19 patients citing some unproven, un trialed bunkum about “in view of their lethal side effects on the cardiovascular system”.

Over 100 scientists write open letter to ⁦⁦@richardhorton1⁩, editor of British med journal ⁦@TheLancet ⁩ questioning authenticity of dodgy, non-transparent data it published on basis of which @WHO⁩ recklessly “paused” trials on #HydroxyChloroquine ⁦@DrTedros

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 01 Jun 2020 10:32

Daily new cases hitting 8500. Will we have the highest number of daily cases eventually? I really hope the June 20 date for peak active cases is true. Daily deaths are also now consistently above 200.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arvin » 01 Jun 2020 11:21

Music composer wajid khan of sajid wajid fame passes away due to covid 19.

https://www.timesnownews.com/amp/india/ ... -at/599660

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 01 Jun 2020 11:32

hanumadu wrote:Daily new cases hitting 8500. Will we have the highest number of daily cases eventually? I really hope the June 20 date for peak active cases is true. Daily deaths are also now consistently above 200.


Highest cases are expected to rise further as train and flights are resumed..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 01 Jun 2020 14:28

hanumadu wrote:Daily new cases hitting 8500. Will we have the highest number of daily cases eventually? I really hope the June 20 date for peak active cases is true. Daily deaths are also now consistently above 200.


Peak active cases are when active cases > total recoveries. In that case, the highest no of daily cases should be 15 days earlier (assuming that is the time needed to be declared recovered, or dead). i.e. daily no of cases should peak 5th June.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 01 Jun 2020 17:11

80% dip in infection risk for health staff on HCQ: Study HCQ seems to be working in prophylaxis
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... WZn7I.html

As many as 80% of the health care workers (HCWs) on six or more prophylactic doses of the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) were not infected by Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), according to a new pre-print study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) -- a finding that could establishing the prophylactic properties of the drug against Covid-19, even as several international studies have dismissed its utility as a therapeutic.

The study results were one of the driving factors behind India last week expanding the use of HCQ as a prophylactic drug beyond health care workers in Covid-19 hospitals and close contacts of infected people to frontline workers such as surveillance staff deployed in containment zones, and paramilitary or police personnel involved in Covid-19 related activities.

The results are based on a case control study for which participants were randomly drawn from the countrywide Covid-19 testing data portal maintained by ICMR. The test results and contact details of health care workers (HCWs), diagnosed as positive (cases) or negative (controls) for Sars-CoV-2 using the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, were available from this database.


“The main conclusion that can be drawn after analyzing the data is that HCQ has beneficial effects in infection risk reduction from fourth dose onwards. The first loading dose of 800mg and then every week a dose of 400 mg for 4, 6 or more weeks as per your physician’s advice will help cut the risk of infection by 80% in healthcare workers who are not already sick,” says Dr Samiran Panda, director, ICMR-National AIDS Research Institute, the study co-author.

Data collection for this investigation was done during May 8-23. HCWs tested between the first week of April 2020 and the end of first week of May 2020 formed the sample pool, from which cases and controls were drawn. About 378 and 373 individuals could be contacted in the case and control groups, respectively.


“… Ability of this compound to inhibit the infection by SARS-CoV-2, as well as viral replication in cell cultures in a time- and dose-dependent manner made it a primary choice… These laboratory findings encouraged researchers to consider HCQ, originally used for malaria, as a repurposed agent for prophylaxis against SARS-CoV-219,” says the study.

The National Task Force for Covid-19 in India took cognizance of this evidence and empirically recommended the use of HCQ as prophylaxis against Sars-CoV-2 infection among a select group of asymptomatic people.

“Until results of clinical trials for HCQ prophylaxis become available, this study provides actionable information for policymakers to protect HCWs at the forefront of COVID-19 response. Also, it is to be kept in mind that merely taking HCQ is not enough, you cannot go easy on wearing personal protection equipment and other infection control measures,” says Dr Panda.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 01 Jun 2020 17:12

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/heal ... quine.html

Scientists Question Validity of Major Hydroxychloroquine Study: Anti HCQ published in Lancet under hammer for likely bogus data, what saddens is every writer and data provider is of Indian origin.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 01 Jun 2020 17:16

Of particular significance is finding that many of the nCV spreaders never had symptoms. Even on Diamon Cruise Ship (where 20% got infected) 80% never had or mild symptoms.

This is corroborated by antibody tests where large no of healthy fit hospital staff are being found to have antibodies to nCV but never had symptoms.

Coronavirus: The mystery of asymptomatic 'silent spreaders' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52840763

80% of Diamond Princess coronavirus patients had mild or no symptoms https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/ ... tTkCjpKhPZ

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 01 Jun 2020 17:39

Deans wrote:
hanumadu wrote:Daily new cases hitting 8500. Will we have the highest number of daily cases eventually? I really hope the June 20 date for peak active cases is true. Daily deaths are also now consistently above 200.


Peak active cases are when active cases > total recoveries. In that case, the highest no of daily cases should be 15 days earlier (assuming that is the time needed to be declared recovered, or dead). i.e. daily no of cases should peak 5th June.


Going by the trend, new cases peaking by 5th june looks unlikely. Keeping fingers crossed.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 01 Jun 2020 19:56

Community transmission of coronavirus infection well-established in India: Experts

Community transmission of the coronavirus infection has been well-established across large sections or sub-populations in the country, a group of health experts, including doctors from the AIIMS and two members of an ICMR research group on COVID-19, has said.

The government has maintained that the country has not yet reached the community transmission stage of the disease even as the death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 5,394 and the number of cases climbed to 1,90,535 in the country on Monday.

India has now become the world's seventh worst-hit country in terms of coronavirus cases.

The report compiled by experts from the Indian Public Health Association (IPHA), Indian Association of Preventive and Social Medicine (IAPSM) and Indian Association of Epidemiologists (IAE) has been submitted to the prime minister.

"It is unrealistic to expect that COVID-19 pandemic can be eliminated at this stage given that community transmission is already well-established across large sections or sub-populations in the country," the report said.

"The expected benefit of this stringent nationwide lockdown was to spread out the disease over an extended period of time to flatten the curve and effectively plan and manage so that the healthcare delivery system is not overwhelmed. This seems to have been achieved albeit after 4th lockdown with extraordinary inconvenience and disruption of the economy and life of the general public," they said in the report.

The experts noted that India's nationwide lockdown from March 25 till May 31 has been one of the most "stringent" and yet COVID cases have increased exponentially through this phase, from 606 cases on March 25 to 138,845 on May 24.

"This draconian lockdown is presumably in response to a modelling exercise from an influential institution which presented a 'worst-case simulation'. The model had come up with an estimated 2.2 million deaths globally. Subsequent events have proved that the predictions of this model were way off the mark," the report said.

The experts also rued that epidemiologists have not been consulted while making decisions on tackling the pandemic.

"Had the Government of India consulted epidemiologists who had better grasp of disease transmission dynamics compared to modellers, it would have perhaps been better served," the report said.

From the limited information available in the public domain, the experts said, it seems that the government was primarily advised by clinicians and academic epidemiologists with "limited field training and skills".

"Policy makers apparently relied overwhelmingly on general administrative bureaucrats. The engagement with expert technocrats in the areas of epidemiology, public health, preventive medicine and social scientists was limited", they said.

"The incoherent and often rapidly shifting strategies and policies, especially at the national level, are more a reflection of 'afterthought' and catching up phenomenon on part of the policy makers rather than a well thought cogent strategy with an epidemiologic basis," they said.

If the infection can't be stopped, better to think about administering HCQ enmasse (initially at high risk areas), especially if the earlier experience with HCQ has over whelming positive results.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 01 Jun 2020 20:47

IndraD wrote:80% dip in infection risk for health staff on HCQ: Study HCQ seems to be working in prophylaxis
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... WZn7I.html

As many as 80% of the health care workers (HCWs) on six or more prophylactic doses of the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) were not infected by Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), according to a new pre-print study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) -- a finding that could establishing the prophylactic properties of the drug against Covid-19, even as several international studies have dismissed its utility as a therapeutic.

The study results were one of the driving factors behind India last week expanding the use of HCQ as a prophylactic drug beyond health care workers in Covid-19 hospitals and close contacts of infected people to frontline workers such as surveillance staff deployed in containment zones, and paramilitary or police personnel involved in Covid-19 related activities.

The results are based on a case control study for which participants were randomly drawn from the countrywide Covid-19 testing data portal maintained by ICMR. The test results and contact details of health care workers (HCWs), diagnosed as positive (cases) or negative (controls) for Sars-CoV-2 using the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, were available from this database.


“The main conclusion that can be drawn after analyzing the data is that HCQ has beneficial effects in infection risk reduction from fourth dose onwards. The first loading dose of 800mg and then every week a dose of 400 mg for 4, 6 or more weeks as per your physician’s advice will help cut the risk of infection by 80% in healthcare workers who are not already sick,” says Dr Samiran Panda, director, ICMR-National AIDS Research Institute, the study co-author.

Data collection for this investigation was done during May 8-23. HCWs tested between the first week of April 2020 and the end of first week of May 2020 formed the sample pool, from which cases and controls were drawn. About 378 and 373 individuals could be contacted in the case and control groups, respectively.


“… Ability of this compound to inhibit the infection by SARS-CoV-2, as well as viral replication in cell cultures in a time- and dose-dependent manner made it a primary choice… These laboratory findings encouraged researchers to consider HCQ, originally used for malaria, as a repurposed agent for prophylaxis against SARS-CoV-219,” says the study.

The National Task Force for Covid-19 in India took cognizance of this evidence and empirically recommended the use of HCQ as prophylaxis against Sars-CoV-2 infection among a select group of asymptomatic people.

“Until results of clinical trials for HCQ prophylaxis become available, this study provides actionable information for policymakers to protect HCWs at the forefront of COVID-19 response. Also, it is to be kept in mind that merely taking HCQ is not enough, you cannot go easy on wearing personal protection equipment and other infection control measures,” says Dr Panda.


Anyone has a link to the actual study? I couldn't find it on a google search, just articles about it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chanakyaa » 01 Jun 2020 21:26

Russia to start using Avifavir as a Covid-19 treatment from June


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 01 Jun 2020 23:04

IndraD wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine.html

Scientists Question Validity of Major Hydroxychloroquine Study: Anti HCQ published in Lancet under hammer for likely bogus data, what saddens is every writer and data provider is of Indian origin.


when attacking India, nothing better than using Indian traitors, soldouts, and turncoats.

the brits colonized India for centuries using this very technique.

What is even more saddening is that there is no dearth of such dubious characters, ever willing to prostitute themselves for the proverbial twenty pieces of soiled silver.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 01 Jun 2020 23:13

arvin wrote:Music composer wajid khan of sajid wajid fame passes away due to covid 19.

https://www.timesnownews.com/amp/india/ ... -at/599660



same report says that:

"He died of a cardiac arrest," Wajid's brother Sajid told PTI while confirming that the musician had tested positive for COVID-19. Music composer Salim Merchant, who first confirmed the news of Wajid's death, said the composer was hospitalised recently at Surana Hospital, Chembur where his condition deteriorated.

"He had multiple issues. He had a kidney issue and had a transplant a while ago. But recently he got to know about kidney infection... He was on the ventilator for the last four days, after his situation started getting worse. Kidney infection was the beginning and then he got critical," Salim told PTI.

A source close to the family also confirmed the coronavirus diagnosis. "He had coronavirus. When you already have heart and kidney issues, your immunity is low. His situation worsened in the last few days," the source added.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby arshyam » 01 Jun 2020 23:14

Anyway, why are we navel gazing about Indian origin persons being behind the study? Why not hold the Lancet accountable for zero validation before publication instead? As a journal of some (supposed) level of credibility, aren't they supposed to do some due diligence? Charlatans abound in the world, but that doesn't mean that any Tom, Dick or Harry can get published in a journal like Lancet.

Of course, for me, The Lancet lost credibility when they gratuitously waded into the CAA issue. But we should continue to pursue the line of how a respected journal ended up being so beholden to vested interests that they simply let such a bad study through.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 02 Jun 2020 00:24

IndraD wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/health/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine.html

Scientists Question Validity of Major Hydroxychloroquine Study: Anti HCQ published in Lancet under hammer for likely bogus data, what saddens is every writer and data provider is of Indian origin.



Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 02 Jun 2020 03:01

DavidD wrote:Anyone has a link to the actual study? I couldn't find it on a google search, just articles about it.

this is a preprint script. Waiting for publication.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 02 Jun 2020 04:49

IndraD wrote:
DavidD wrote:Anyone has a link to the actual study? I couldn't find it on a google search, just articles about it.

this is a preprint script. Waiting for publication.


Thanks. Here in the states it's too politicized. Trump touted HCQ so libs are all detracting it. Most physicians are liberal too so many are playing along. It's a bit frustrating that poor quality studies are given so much weight. I'm not just talking about the Lancet study, but the VA one a couple months ago as well.

I'd still like to see some prospective trials, of course a RCT would be the best, but even a high quality retrospective study on the correct target population (i.e. mild cases or as a prophylaxis) would go a long way.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 02 Jun 2020 15:26

Russians claim to have an effective treatment for the coronavirus, which hospitals will start using this month

KEY POINTS
- Preliminary trials are said to have shown that it could shorten recovery times for patients with Covid-19.
- The final stage of Avifavir clinical trials involving 330 patients, are ongoing.
- Russia’s Ministry of Health on Saturday temporarily approved the use of the drug as a coronavirus treatment.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/01/russia- ... -june.html

Favipiravir seems to be the unloved child compared to Remdesivir. The russians claim to have reengineered it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 02 Jun 2020 16:23

I think a recent study didn't show any benefit for Favipiravir, I'd be interested in seeing what the Russian study showed. Hope it's published in English soon.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby anmol » 02 Jun 2020 17:46

DavidD wrote:Anyone has a link to the actual study? I couldn't find it on a google search, just articles about it.
Healthcare workers & SARS-CoV-2 infection in India: A case-control investigation in the time of COVID-19
http://www.ijmr.org.in/temp/IndianJMedRes000-4255589_114915.pdf

http://www.ijmr.org.in/downloadpdf.asp?id=285520;type=2


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