Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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sudarshan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 14 Jun 2020 08:42



Also to mention - this phenomenon is not unique to SARS COVID 19. It seems to have been observed and modeled for other diseases, like malaria, TB, or the previous SARS epidemic. The first reference in my earlier post gives CV values for all these diseases, observed from Africa, S. America, etc. COVID 19 seems to have a rather more extreme CV than most of the other cases, but it is not an unusual level of inhomogeneity, from looking at the values for other diseases.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 14 Jun 2020 19:06

Krita wrote:
chola wrote:

Delhi govt has made it difficult for even symptomatic people to get tested. It is way easier to get tested in Haryana.Especially, if you've lived in Gurgaon sometime in the past and have registered with any hospitals there.
Delhi govt is in denial mode. Lockdown wasn't implemented properly , no efforts were put in contact tracing, no facilities were readied for any worst case scenario nor they are making it easy for people to undergo testing.
For the past weeks Delhi is doing between 4400-6000 tests with 33-37 percent prevalence rate. The actual number of deaths based on MCD records due to Chinavirus is 2000+. (they are adding this as backlogs). The Delhi govt is blaming the hospitals even though the govt is the one fudging numbers. For low testing they are blaming ICMR. Neighbouring UP is doing 15K tests a day.
10K hospital is a bad joke on the Delhi public.


Krita, as badly as the AAP had FUBARed the situation in Delhi these 10000 beds are even more needed now. The truth is we need an excess of beds as a buffer against the scenarios you are describing where records do not reflect the actual situation. It doesn't even matter that they are deliberately or accidentally incorrect, the need is the same. We can investigate malfeasance in the aftermath. The need for beds is no joke. People are already dying because they are not admitted and not just because of covid. We have the perineal monsoon-related diseases coming too.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 14 Jun 2020 22:29

chola wrote:
Krita, as badly as the AAP had FUBARed the situation in Delhi these 10000 beds are even more needed now. The truth is we need an excess of beds as a buffer against the scenarios you are describing where records do not reflect the actual situation. It doesn't even matter that they are deliberately or accidentally incorrect, the need is the same. We can investigate malfeasance in the aftermath. The need for beds is no joke. People are already dying because they are not admitted and not just because of covid. We have the perineal monsoon-related diseases coming too.

I did not mean that 10K bed is not needed. But, with PAAPIs track record it is hard to believe them .I think they are just buying time till the next big controversy that Mr anarchist can use to deviate media attention from their non existent covid strategy.
Even before media reports, rumors of high death rates in Najafgarh & south Delhi crematoriums and burial grounds were circulating in my society whatsapp group.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 15 Jun 2020 01:52

I can't help but feel this is two weeks too soon, ... but I'd be happy to be wrong :) The pressure of approaching summer holidays period which is essential for the morale of the people and for reviving tourism industry must have been too hard to resist.

Vive les vacances, vive la France :mrgreen: :twisted:

Macron: France has 'scored its first victory' in the fight against coronavirus

French president Emmanuel Macron announced further reopening of France from Monday in his fourth televised speech to the country since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic

"The fight against the epidemic is not finished but I am happy about this first victory against the virus," Macron said, before declaring that, starting Monday, "all of France will turn green." That meant that the greater Paris region Île-de-France would go from orange to green on the government's coronavirus map earlier than expected, and that all bars and restaurants would be able to fully reopen again.

France's overseas territories Mayotte and French Guiana would be exempt and stay orange for the time being.

President Macron's speech came as France approached the end of "phase two" of lifting the strict, nationwide lockdown. Phase 3 was set to begin on June 22nd, but as expected the president announced a further loosening up of restrictions that would enter into effect earlier than planned.`“Tomorrow, we’ll be able to turn the page on the first act of this epidemic,” he said. "We will be able to find the real France again." After announcing the good news, he cautioned that "this does not mean that the virus has disappeared." "We will have to live with the virus for a long time yet," he said.

Restaurants and bars
As of Monday, all bars and restaurants can reopen again, including in Paris where only terraces have been able to get back in business.

Schools
All schools will reopen from June 22nd, and attending school will be mandatory for all pupils in crèches, écoles (elementary and primary school) and collèges (secondary school).

International travel
Macron announced that, as of Monday, all travel into European countries would again be allowed. That means everyone will be able to move freely inside Europe without having to show a valid international travel certificate. Travel outside of the EU will be made possible again from July 1st.

Local elections
France will hold the second round of its local elections on June 28th.

Ehpad (nursery homes)
All of the country's nursing homes for elderly will open to visits again from Monday. The measure will be met with great relief by both residents, family and staff, after a series of media reports showing how elderly in Ehpads have suffered from loneliness during the lockdown.

Economy
Pointing to the government's economic help measures during the lockdown, Macron said they were proof of its "total mobilisation" and dedication in supporting the country's businesses, "whatever it cost." "Partial unemployment, business loans, support for traders, the self-employed, support for the most precarious," he said.

"Everything has been done by the government to save our jobs and to help everyone." Now, the president said, France was entering a new chapter where it needed to rebuild its economy. “Our first priority is to reconstruct an economy that is strong, green and just,” Macron said, promising a "relaunch" of the economy founded on "solidarity."

"We have decided on a massive plan for the hardest hit: the automobile industry, aeronautics, tourism, culture, catering, hotels ”, Macron said. "In total, we have mobilised nearly €500 billion for our economy, for workers, for entrepreneurs, but also for the most precarious."

Racism
The president's address to the nation came at a tense moment, as thousands of people in French cities had taken to the streets in the latest protest against police violence and alleged racism on Saturday, in an echo of the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States. As expected, Macron tried to strike a balance between showing sympathy for the protesters' demands and denouncing racism, while avoiding stirring further ire among the police - who have already held their own demonstrations.

"Our police (..) deserve to be recognised by the nation," he said, pointing to the "dangers" that police officers faced daily. Referring to international calls for tearing down statutes of colonial personalities, he said: "The Republic will not delete any name, any trace of its history."

New speech in July Macron will speak to the French again in July. "We have before us historic challenges," he said. "Let's never forget our strengths, our history, our youth, our sense of work and commitment, our desire for justice, our capacity to create to live and change the world, our benevolence.”

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Jun 2020 01:57

amar_p wrote:I can't help but feel this is two weeks too soon, ... but I'd be happy to be wrong :)....


@CyranoDB - how's things there? Has France really been opening up? Officially, the lockdown ended three weeks ago, I think? The numbers on worldometer don't show any uptick, is that really the case?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 15 Jun 2020 02:35

Sudarshan, there was partial relaxation 3 weeks ago with social distancing rules still in place, borders mostly closed, schools partially opened with strict measures, restaurants & bars closed but terraces open etc. Now nearly all rules seem to have been lifted. Its not yet clear what social distancing rules are still mandatory if any or "recommended".

Total Covid hospitalisations have dropped from a peak of 32K cases on 14Apr to under 11K now
New Hospitalisations have dropped from peak of 4,2K cases/day early April to less than 500 since mid May and <100/day now
Deaths have followed a similar somewhat lagging trend. Total deaths just under 30K, a third of which over 10.3K occurred in old age homes (which are quite well managed and paid for by families or subsidised)

Data here: https://www.gouvernement.fr/info-coronavirus/carte-et-donnees
If you click on any data rectangle on the left and when its histogram appears, click on the small text on top right of the histogram "Afficher les variations quotidiennes" to see the daily variations trend, and you will see the graph petering out over several weeks to settle around zero . I think this is what has led the Govt to believe that they can return almost to normal. Perhaps some desire on the part of Macron to go one up over his European & American counterparts played a role as well ;-)

At this stage, will there be a second wave is anybody's guess.

Personally, for another 2 months I will wear a mask whenever I go out, wash hands rigorously, avoid large crowds, avoid as much as possible crowded confined spaces and maintain physical distance in general. And will urge others to do the same.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 15 Jun 2020 06:23

amar_p wrote:Sudarshan, there was partial relaxation 3 weeks ago with social distancing rules still in place, borders mostly closed, schools partially opened with strict measures, restaurants & bars closed but terraces open etc. Now nearly all rules seem to have been lifted. Its not yet clear what social distancing rules are still mandatory if any or "recommended".


OK, my understanding was that Paris had more restrictions (being a hotspot) but the rest of France had partially opened up, like you say.

Total Covid hospitalisations have dropped from a peak of 32K cases on 14Apr to under 11K now
New Hospitalisations have dropped from peak of 4,2K cases/day early April to less than 500 since mid May and <100/day now
Deaths have followed a similar somewhat lagging trend. Total deaths just under 30K, a third of which over 10.3K occurred in old age homes (which are quite well managed and paid for by families or subsidised)


Just the details I was looking for, thanks! Hospitalizations and deaths (I feel) are more meaningful than case counts. The old age home detail mirrors what's been seen in the rest of the world, in some parts of the world (Sweden particularly) even like 2/3rds of deaths were in old age homes.

Data here: https://www.gouvernement.fr/info-coronavirus/carte-et-donnees
If you click on any data rectangle on the left and when its histogram appears, click on the small text on top right of the histogram "Afficher les variations quotidiennes" to see the daily variations trend, and you will see the graph petering out over several weeks to settle around zero . I think this is what has led the Govt to believe that they can return almost to normal. Perhaps some desire on the part of Macron to go one up over his European & American counterparts played a role as well ;-)


Great, will look through this.

At this stage, will there be a second wave is anybody's guess.


Hope not, it would be nice if this was already at the end game (regardless of how low the infected fraction is, if deaths and hospitalizations are trending down steadily, that is the end game). France seems to be taking a risk with opening up now, hope it works out, if it does, it will be a big hopeful sign for all the rest of us as well.

Personally, for another 2 months I will wear a mask whenever I go out, wash hands rigorously, avoid large crowds, avoid as much as possible crowded confined spaces and maintain physical distance in general. And will urge others to do the same.


But of course mon ami, but of course (as the little Belgian detective would say). Also tell them to go easy on that kissing culture, regardless of how pretty a jeune femme she is. (Sorry if that isn't the right term, getting it from Google translate onlee).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 15 Jun 2020 14:39

Delhi government can set up a field hospital in the sports stadium (like UK has done) or even other large government colleges or existing large structures.

Instead of the quick solution, they would want to set up a greenfield unit far away from the city.

I am pretty sure, in coming months we will come to know of some gotala like the money making scheme during CW games.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby srai » 15 Jun 2020 15:29

srai wrote:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Date: April 2, 2020
1 million cases
50,000 deaths

5% death rate average
...

Date: April 15, 2020
Over 2 million cases today
134,000 deaths

6.7% death rate average (known cases and deaths)

Known cases doubled in two weeks.

Date: April 27, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 3,055,498
Deaths: 211,035
Recovered: 918,184

6.9% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
30% Recovery average

Another million in 12-days. Recovered inching towards a million (1/3 of known infections).

Date: May 9, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 4,032,763
Deaths: 276,677
Recovered: 1,399,718

6.86% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
34.7% recovery average (known cases and recovery)

Three times in a row ... 12-to-14 days another million case



Date: May 20, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 5,000,599
Deaths: 325,156
Recovered: 1,970,918

11-days to another million
6.5% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
39.4% recovery average (known cases and recovery)

Date: May 30, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 6,033,835
Deaths: 366,891
Recovered: 2,661,163

10-days to another million
6.08% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
44.10% recovery average (known cases and recovery)

Recovery inching upwards while death rate dropping down.


7 June 2020

Coronavirus Cases: 7,008,898
Deaths: 402,691
Recovered: 3,429,150

8-days to another million
5.75% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
48.93% recovery average (known cases and recovery)

Cases are accelerating but death rate decreasing while recovery at nearly half of the cases.

June 15, 2020
Coronavirus Cases: 8,013,919
Deaths: 435,988
Recovered: 4,137,545

8-days again to another million
5.44% death rate average (known cases and deaths)
51.63% recovery average (known cases and recovery)

Recovery has crossed 50% mark

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 15 Jun 2020 15:44

Also tell them to go easy on that kissing culture, regardless of how pretty a jeune femme she is.

Actually, "la bise" or light kissing on cheeks (1/2/3 or even 4 times alternately on both cheeks depending on regional custom) happens as part of greeting each other (of either sex), between grand parents/parents and children, siblings, family members, close friends, even close colleagues, neighbours, and between nearly everyone in convivial informal gatherings. Lips mostly do not touch the cheeks, though cheeks may touch. Depending on who the kissers are and the context, it conveys not only equality and respect (especially when young people kiss older generations), but also congratulations, cameraderie, acceptance, inclusion, liking, affection, tenderness and a degree of good natured flirtatiousness. Even text messages or emails end with "bises" or "gros bisous" or "je t'embrasse" between people close to each other.

My personal theory is that though the practice might have been present since Roman times, it has anchored itself into modern French society during the Napoleonic (reinforced by subsequent) wars, when one met a person returning from the front or afar and the immense joy of finding each other again was impossible to express otherwise than by embracing and kissing on the cheeks.

Covid-19 has definitely put this practice on a pause. Post-millenneal generations already seemed to be weaning away from it even before Covid. Some sociologists and intellectuals (there is no dearth of them here) are now debating the impact of its coming back or weakening on French society and culture.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 15 Jun 2020 19:20

sajo wrote:
sajo wrote:New cases in the Pune Region
4-Jun : 176
5-Jun : 182
6-Jun : 275
7-Jun : 159
8-Jun : 181
9-Jun : 143


10-Jun : 304
11-Jun : 268


12-Jun : 305
13-Jun : 254
14-Jun : 320

Testing has not gone up! Numbers are increasing with roughly the same number of tests being carried out.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Lekhraj » 15 Jun 2020 20:18

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/beware-of-a3i-the-new-coronavirus-strain/20200615.htm

Extract

The other day, ICMR said that 80% of the cases in India are asymptomatic now. Is it because of non-synonymous mutation?

It is impossible to say that with certainty without enough clinical data. There may be several other factors contributing to that, and this mutation could be one of them, if at all.

In other countries also, there are a large number of asymptomatic patients. Yes, it looks like they are more in India.

Maybe the virus is less virulent, maybe people are more efficient or maybe a mild version of a closely related virus was here and people may have developed immunity.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 15 Jun 2020 21:08

Rahul Kanwal @rahulkanwal
Home Minister @AmitShah has taken charge of helping Delhi fight #Covid19 Just as well. Better to go all out and prevent the capital from slipping into the abyss rather than turn the pandemic into an Aap vs BJP fight. This isn’t the time for politics. Better to fight unitedly.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 15 Jun 2020 23:25

sajo wrote:
sajo wrote:
10-Jun : 304
11-Jun : 268


12-Jun : 305
13-Jun : 254
14-Jun : 320

Testing has not gone up! Numbers are increasing with roughly the same number of tests being carried out.


At this point its probably not worth mentioning MH and DL - both states have gone herd and the virus will slowdown only after it burns through a good percentage of the population. I hope Haryana, Rajasthan , Punjab and UP are all taking ample precautions given the number of Delhi cases showing up those states. Overall looking at China, Singapore, S Korea, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, France and now US numbers dropping its fair to say we will not see a drop until early to mid-August.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 16 Jun 2020 20:37

COVID-19 -- Dexamethasone is first life-saving drug. Easily available and cheap.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... FCZfI.html

‘Ground-breaking’: Trial shows drug cuts death risk by third in Covid cases
The results were described by experts such as the UK government’s chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance as “ground-breaking”, as Imperial College London announced its human trial for a vaccine from this week.



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN23N1VP

Scientists hail dexamethasone as 'major breakthrough' in treating COVID-19


LONDON (Reuters) - Dexamethasone, a cheap and widely used steroid, has become the first drug shown to be able to save lives among COVID-19 patients in what scientists hailed as a “major breakthrough”.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Srikanth P » 16 Jun 2020 21:22

Steroids have traditionally had a role in viral ARDS.

The press release on Dexamethasone trial in Covid19 is here...

https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/low- ... f-covid-19

pdf statement here

https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/rec ... 2final.pdf

Number needed to treat of 8 in those ventilated ( drug will save one life out of 8 it is given to) and 25 in those requiring oxygen alone. Regimen - 6mg daily for 10 days.

Recovery Trial results will be published soon.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 16 Jun 2020 23:15

Worldometer reporting >1500 deaths in India today? Hope it's a mistake, or some accounting artifact.

EDIT: Thanks Ambar.
Last edited by sudarshan on 16 Jun 2020 23:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 16 Jun 2020 23:21

MH reclassified around 1320 deaths from the last few weeks as "possible covid" today resulting in the spike. This reclassification of suspected deaths as possible covid cases is something Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Russia, US, UK have all done over the last couple of months. UP, DL and HR are yet to report the daily numbers, so you can add another 150-200 to today's total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 16 Jun 2020 23:46

Ambar wrote:MH reclassified around 1320 deaths from the last few weeks as "possible covid" today resulting in the spike. This reclassification of suspected deaths as possible covid cases is something Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Russia, US, UK have all done over the last couple of months. UP, DL and HR are yet to report the daily numbers, so you can add another 150-200 to today's total.

Delhi has reported 437 deaths including backlogs.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 17 Jun 2020 00:28

Srikanth P wrote:Steroids have traditionally had a role in viral ARDS.

The press release on Dexamethasone trial in Covid19 is here...



Isnt this also the drug given (along with what I know as Betnesol) to expecting mothers at significant risk for premature delivery, for faster lung development of babies? In an extremely simplistic view, if it speeds up Baby Development in the womb, does it help in simply faster lung recovery in affected patients?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Srikanth P » 17 Jun 2020 10:38

sajo wrote:
Srikanth P wrote:Steroids have traditionally had a role in viral ARDS.

The press release on Dexamethasone trial in Covid19 is here...



Isnt this also the drug given (along with what I know as Betnesol) to expecting mothers at significant risk for premature delivery, for faster lung development of babies? In an extremely simplistic view, if it speeds up Baby Development in the womb, does it help in simply faster lung recovery in affected patients?


Steroids marginally improve "lung maturity" in preterm infants and do not accelerate lung development. No lung development occurs in adulthood. Its use in viral ARDS is to reduce inflammation in lungs.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 17 Jun 2020 20:40

‘Remdesivir’ is game changer, request PMO to unclog distribution: Task Force's SOS to CM Thackeray

The state government’s Task Force on coronavirus on Monday sent a second SOS to Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray seeking easier, wider availability of Remdesivir, a medicine being hailed globally for its efficacy against covid.

Calling Remdesivir a “game changer”, the Task Force led by Dr Sanjay Oak urged the chief minister to take up the the matter with the Prime Minister’s Office and Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan and have the supplies unclogged.

This is the second time the Task Force has written to the chief minister underlining the importance of Remdesivir and Favipiravir in the battle against Covid-19.

The Task Force has now also compiled a list of 50 critically ill patients in dire need of the life-saving drug, including two fathers, 40 and 44, who are both on ventilator, one at KEM and other at Bhatia Hospital.

The task force has said that Remdesivir is an “early detection” drug, which means it works best if administered within two-three days of the detection of the infection. This also means those waiting for the drug can’t wait too long.

The Task Force’s assessment of the drug is shared by global health experts. In a report published by BBC recently, doctors in the UK said “it cuts deaths by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cuts deaths by a fifth.” The report, quoting experts, also said that had the drug been used to treat patients in the UK from the start of the pandemic, up to 5,000 lives could have been saved.

The Task Force’s note to the chief minister says the drug should be made available with any Indian or overseas manufacturer who has complied with necessary technical requirements, bears the manufacturing icense and has exhibited product stability. “This drug may prove to be a game changer if we are able to institute it early with the diagnosis of corona while the virus is in replicating phase and cytokine storm has not complicated the case,” the note said. Cytokine storm refers to the body’s immune system going into overdrive as it tries to fight off covid.

The Task Force has also recommended an aggressive testing policy and liberal use of CT scans to diagnose Covid-19 early.

Over the past weeks, the procurement of Remdesivir has been stuck in bureaucratic red tape in the state. Last week, the state government said it would begin multi-centre trials of Remdesivir across its medical colleges. Called third-stage trials, under it the drug was to be made available in 14 government medical colleges and four BMC medical colleges. However, the trial has not begun so far, nor has the government placed any order for the drug with a clutch of Bangladeshi manufacturers willing to supply the drug.

Two companies -- BDR and Hetero -- who, officials said, had agreed to participate in the trial, did not respond to an email from Mumbai Mirror.


Male, 40, Lower Parel resident, admitted in KEM Hospital, on ventilator in ICU
Dr Hemant Deshmukh, dean of KEM, aid almost 50 per cent of Covid-19 patients in the hospital are critical and need Remdesivir. “We have many young patients below 45 years who need the medication,” he said.

Male, 44, Walkeshwar resident, admitted in Bhatia Hospital, on non-invasive ventilator
Dr Jeenam Shah, pulmonologist, who is treating the patient, told Mirror: “We have tried all combinations of drugs but his condition is not improving. Before his condition worsens further we want to administer him Remdesivir. We are trying to get the medicine on compassionate grounds.”

Male, 22, resident of Parel, admitted in KEM, currently on high oxygen support
“This 22-year-old doesn’t have any co-morbid conditions. He came to the hospital very late with breathing difficulties, his lungs are affected, he need Remdesivir on an urgent basis. We have seen cases where patients’ condition improved after administrating this drugs,” said a senior doctor.

Male, 26, resident of Worli, admitted in KEM, on oxygen support
“Vials of Remdesivir are currently available on compassionate grounds. VIPs are able to get the medicine through their contacts, but those admitted in BMC-run are suffering. Why can’t the vials be available to all on emergency basis?” said another senior doctor on condition of anonymity.

Male, 40, resident of Thane, admitted in Fortis Hospital, Mulund, on ventilator
Dr Rahul Pandit, director, intensive care unit, said: “Once the patient becomes critical the medicine may not work. That’s why we want to give the medicine to patients before they become critical.”


I read that DGCI is yet to issue licence for Indian companies to go ahead and manufacture Remdesivir. It is possible the above article may be a sales push for that particular drug and its effectiveness is being over estimated. Anyways, in any case, if VIPs are getting the drug through contacts to "save" their lives and common man are being denied the same, it is truly an atrocity (which probably most politicians & babus do not care...their skins & the ones of their loved ones can be saved by contacts). Still, I do hope ASAP the red tape for drugs, critical equipment is cut and fighting chance is given to most people.

BLR was model city so far...having very low number of cases. Slowly the number of cases per day are rising and BLR has around 800 total cases (including recoveries). BSY has said that there is no chance of another lock down. July mid to August is when they are expecting surge in number of cases in BLR + Karnataka.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 18 Jun 2020 09:59

these guys are foolish enough to let a chinese scientist, Dr Xiangguo Qiu work at canada's only level-4 lab: canada’s National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg :mrgreen:


Canada’s top microbiology lab sent fifteen “deadliest pathogens” to the Wuhan lab months before the Coronavirus outbreak: Report


The Canadian Lab has, however, said that the shipments had nothing to do with the coronavirus outbreak and moreover it said that the termination of the Chinese scientist, Dr Xiangguo Qiu from the Winnipeg lab was also not related to the shipment.

17 June, 2020
OpIndia Staff



Newly-released access-to-information documents have revealed shocking details of how a shipment of deadly pathogens from Canada’s National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg was received by the Wuhan Institute of Virology, months before the outbreak of coronavirus pandemic. It is being reported that the delivery of 15 different lethal pathogens was made in May 2019.

According to a report by CBC News, the scientist who was responsible for exporting the pathogens to China was sacked after an investigation in July last year. Dr Xiangguo Qiu, the person who was allegedly behind this delivery, was terminated from Canada’s only level-4 lab over what the lab called a possible “policy breach”. Earlier it was reported that Canada had dispatched Ebola and Henipah viruses to the Wuhan lab.

The documents show that a total of 15 different virus samples were sent from Canada to the Chinese laboratory, each in two vials. The pathogens were:- Ebola Makona (three different varieties), Mayinga, Kikwit, Ivory Coast, Bundibugyo, Sudan Boniface, Sudan Gulu, MA-Ebov, GP-Ebov, GP-Sudan, Hendra, Nipah Malaysia and Nipah Bangladesh.

The documents accessed by CBC show that Canadian scientists were about the send the virus samples in an incorrect packaging on a commercial Air Canada flight on March 31, 2019. But correct packaging was used only after the Chinese side pointed out that Canadians are using the wrong packaging to ship the deadly pathogens.

Canada denies connection between the virus shipment and coronavirus outbreak
The Canadian Lab has, however, said that the shipments had nothing to do with the coronavirus outbreak and moreover it said that the termination of the Chinese scientist, Dr Xiangguo Qiu from the Winnipeg lab was also not related to the shipment.

The chief of media relations for Health Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada, Eric Morrissette, wrote in an email: “The administrative investigation is not related to the shipment of virus samples to China.

“In response to a request from the Wuhan Institute of Virology for viral samples of Ebola and Henipah viruses, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) sent samples for the purpose of scientific research in 2019.”

Along with PHAC, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) has also denied any connections between the pandemic and the virus shipments. There is no evidence linking this shipment to the spread of the coronavirus. Ebola is a filovirus and Henipa is a paramyxovirus; no coronavirus samples were sent.

Despite the Canadian media reports, the Chinese side has also never officially disclosed any information about the alleged virus transfer from Canada.

Despite clarifications, experts are not convinced. Amir Attaran, a law professor and epidemiologist at the University of Ottawa, was quoted by CBC News as saying: “It is suspicious. It is alarming. It is potentially life-threatening.”

Experts displeased by the Canadian Government’s decision to export the pathogens to China
Alarmed by the act, Amir Attaran said that the shipment was sent to the Chinese lab knowing that it has links to the Chinese military: “What we know is that before she was removed, she sent one of the deadliest viruses on Earth, and multiple varieties of it to maximise the genetic diversity and maximise what experimenters in China could do with it, to a laboratory in China that does dangerous gain of function experiments. And that has links to the Chinese military,” Attaran said.

Talking about the “gain of function experiment”, in which a natural pathogen is taken into the lab, made to mutate, and then assessed to see if it has become more deadly or infectious, the law professor furthered: “The Wuhan lab does them and we have now supplied them with Ebola and Nipah viruses. It does not take a genius to understand that this is an unwise decision. I am extremely unhappy to see that the Canadian government shared that genetic material,” said Attaran.

Though the Canadian officials have consistently denied any connections between the COVID-19 pandemic and the virus shipments and stated that there is no evidence linking the shipments to the spread of the coronavirus, given the fact that the pandemic is said to have originated in Wuhan, news of the “policy breach” is a cause of concern. Especially considering that the revelation has come during the time when the diplomatic relationship between China and the West remains volatile.

While America has repeatedly blamed China for its campaign of “disinformation” related to the coronavirus, Tobias Ellwood, an MP of the United Kingdom, in an exclusive interview with Express.co.uk, said: “COVID-19, if it’s done anything, it has woken up the world to this rather aggressive and concerning the objective of China wanting to quietly advance its own influence across the world.”

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 18 Jun 2020 16:31

An old couple(uncle, aunty) found positive on our floor and admitted to hosp. Some ladies from municipality came and handed hydroxychloroquine tablets to us. Instructed to take 1-0-1 daily for three days. Person should be between 18-50.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 18 Jun 2020 16:36

nvishal wrote:An old couple(uncle, aunty) found positive on our floor and admitted to hosp. Some ladies from municipality came and handed hydroxychloroquine tablets to us. Instructed to take 1-0-1 daily for three days. Person should be between 18-50.


Were they venturing out? Or were infected due to family members? Or domestic help ? If in Pune it would have resulted in a draconian lockdown of the entire building for 15 days minimum. Hope they recover and are back home soon.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 18 Jun 2020 16:45

They would go to buy vegetables in the morning once every 2-3 days. My area is already in quarantine. Shops are allowed to open in the morning till 10am and then municipality boys come out with sticks and order everyone to pack up. Some tolerance is there but by 12pm everything is cleared out. Medical shops stay open till night.

I'm certain by now that we have all become infected. Waiting for anti-body tests to become affordable. There is a sample collection lab(hmm.. typical govt office look) nearby operated by the municipality. People can go there, fill a form detailing their symptoms and the officer behind the table decides whether to test or not(sample collection). There is always a line there.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 18 Jun 2020 17:05

If you were indeed infected didnt develop any symptoms, you are one of the lucky ones!
In the area where my parents live, the first case was a mutton shop owner, followed by a few others. And now its anybody's guess. Cant help but constantly worry. Why isnt that darned thing losing its potency as claimed in many other countries?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby srai » 18 Jun 2020 17:51

WHO gives up on hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19, stops trials
All the data is pointing to the popular anti-malaria drug having no effect.


Jun 17, 2020

The World Health Organization on Wednesday announced that it is abandoning use of the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in the Solidarity trial—the organization’s massive, global clinical trial of potential COVID-19 treatments.

The WHO cited early data from the trial and others showing that hydroxychloroquine does not lower the risk of death or provide any other clinical benefit in hospitalized patients.

...

Like the WHO, the FDA made its decision to revoke the EUA based on early trial data that showed “no evidence of benefit for mortality or other outcomes such as hospital length of stay or need for mechanical ventilation.”

One of the main sources of that data is the Recovery Trial, a large, randomized trial in the UK run by researchers at the University of Oxford. On June 5, the lead investigators of the trial announced they were halting the use of hydroxychloroquine after reviewing early data.

“A total of 1,542 patients were randomized to hydroxychloroquine and compared with 3,132 patients randomized to usual care alone,” they reported. “There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality (25.7% hydroxychloroquine vs. 23.5% usual care; hazard ratio 1.11 [95% confidence interval 0.98-1.26]; p=0.10). There was also no evidence of beneficial effects on hospital stay duration or other outcomes.
“These data convincingly rule out any meaningful mortality benefit of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalized with COVID-19,” they concluded.

...

Other trials are still ongoing to assess whether it could prevent an infection with the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. The WHO noted in its announcement today’s decision to end hydroxycloroquine’s use in the Solidarity trial, which looks at stopping COVID-19, “does not apply to the use or evaluation of hydroxychloroquine in pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis in patients exposed to COVID-19.”

However, results from those trials are not looking good either. One recently published study involving 821 people who had been in close contact with someone with COVID-19 found taking hydroxychloroquine after exposure did not prevent people from becoming ill. According to Science magazine, a Spanish study on post-exposure prophylaxis involving 2,300 people also found no benefit of hydroxychloroquine.

The WHO’s Solidarity trial will carry on with the other potential treatments for COVID-19, which include the HIV treatment lopinavir-ritonavir, remdesivir, and interferon beta-1a. The Solidarity trial is enrolling thousands of COVID-19 patients in over 400 hospitals in 35 counties.


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 19 Jun 2020 03:48

srai wrote:WHO gives up on hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19, stops trials
All the data is pointing to the popular anti-malaria drug having no effect.


Jun 17, 2020

The World Health Organization on Wednesday announced that it is abandoning use of the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in the Solidarity trial—the organization’s massive, global clinical trial of potential COVID-19 treatments.

The WHO cited early data from the trial and others showing that hydroxychloroquine does not lower the risk of death or provide any other clinical benefit in hospitalized patients.

...

Like the WHO, the FDA made its decision to revoke the EUA based on early trial data that showed “no evidence of benefit for mortality or other outcomes such as hospital length of stay or need for mechanical ventilation.”

One of the main sources of that data is the Recovery Trial, a large, randomized trial in the UK run by researchers at the University of Oxford. On June 5, the lead investigators of the trial announced they were halting the use of hydroxychloroquine after reviewing early data.

“A total of 1,542 patients were randomized to hydroxychloroquine and compared with 3,132 patients randomized to usual care alone,” they reported. “There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality (25.7% hydroxychloroquine vs. 23.5% usual care; hazard ratio 1.11 [95% confidence interval 0.98-1.26]; p=0.10). There was also no evidence of beneficial effects on hospital stay duration or other outcomes.
“These data convincingly rule out any meaningful mortality benefit of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalized with COVID-19,” they concluded.

...

Other trials are still ongoing to assess whether it could prevent an infection with the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. The WHO noted in its announcement today’s decision to end hydroxycloroquine’s use in the Solidarity trial, which looks at stopping COVID-19, “does not apply to the use or evaluation of hydroxychloroquine in pre- or post-exposure prophylaxis in patients exposed to COVID-19.”

However, results from those trials are not looking good either. One recently published study involving 821 people who had been in close contact with someone with COVID-19 found taking hydroxychloroquine after exposure did not prevent people from becoming ill. According to Science magazine, a Spanish study on post-exposure prophylaxis involving 2,300 people also found no benefit of hydroxychloroquine.

The WHO’s Solidarity trial will carry on with the other potential treatments for COVID-19, which include the HIV treatment lopinavir-ritonavir, remdesivir, and interferon beta-1a. The Solidarity trial is enrolling thousands of COVID-19 patients in over 400 hospitals in 35 counties.



People need to stop interpreting what scientists say. They're men and women of science, what they say is what they mean, there's no room for interpretation. What is said is that no benefit has been found for hospitalized patients, and that's exactly what it means, no benefit...for hospitalized patients. It doesn't mean people are giving up on HCQ, it means they don't believe it works on a specific population of patients.

Let's wait to see what good studies regarding its early treatment or prophylactic efficacies show and stop sensationalizing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 19 Jun 2020 04:02

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-genes/blood-type-genes-tied-to-risk-of-severe-covid-19-european-study-idUSKBN23P38C
(Reuters) - A person’s blood type and other genetic factors may be linked with severity of coronavirus infection, according to European researchers looking for further clues about why COVID-19 hits some so much harder than others.

The findings, published in The New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, suggest people with type A blood have a higher risk of being infected with the coronavirus and developing worse symptoms.

At the peak of the epidemic in Europe, researchers analyzed the genes of more than 4,000 people to look for variations that were common in those who became infected with the coronavirus and developed severe COVID-19.

A cluster of variants in genes that are involved with immune responses was more common in people with severe COVID-19, they found. These genes are also involved with a cell-surface protein called ACE2 that the coronavirus uses to gain entry to and infect cells in the body.

The researchers, led by Dr. Andre Franke from Christian-Albrecht-University in Kiel, Germany, and Dr. Tom Karlsen, from Oslo University Hospital in Norway also found a relationship between COVID-19 severity and blood type.

The risk for severe COVID-19 was 45% higher for people with type A blood than those with other blood types. It appeared to be 35% lower for people with type O.

“The findings ... provide specific clues as to what disease processes may be going on in severe COVID-19,” Karlsen told Reuters by email, noting that additional research is needed before the information becomes useful.

“The hope is that these and other findings ... will point the way to a more thorough understanding of the biology of COVID-19,” U.S. National Institutes of Health director and genetics expert Francis Collins wrote in his blog on Thursday.

“They also suggest that a genetic test and a person’s blood type might provide useful tools for identifying those who may be at greater risk of serious illness.”

Reporting by Vishwadha Chander in Bengaluru; Editing by Nancy Lapid and Bill Berkrot

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 19 Jun 2020 04:04

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/health-care/chicago-has-unique-covid-strain-research
...
In addition to the strain from China, researchers found what appears to be the most the predominant version of the virus in the New York area and globally, the statement says. That version generates more of the virus in the upper airways than the one that’s unique to Chicago.
...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 19 Jun 2020 04:08

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/health-care/hydroxychloroquine-halted-who-sponsored-covid-19-trials
...
The experts are also reviewing interim data about another arm that uses the combination of the drugs lopinavir and ritonavir to decide whether those studies merit continuation, WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan said in a briefing Thursday. Abbott Laboratories sells the combination under the brand Kaletra.

She also said more tests are needed to determine whether hydroxychloroquine might be helpful in preventing Covid-19.

An experiment run by the University of Oxford released data Tuesday showing that the inexpensive, generic steroid dexamethasone improves survival in severely ill Covid patients. The only other drug to show benefit in a robust trial is Gilead Sciences Inc.’s remdesivir, an antiviral.
...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 20 Jun 2020 20:19

Read that both Favipiravir and Remdesivir have gotten approval for Covid treatment. Dunno about Favipiravir, but Remdesivir seems to be expensive at approx INR 60,000 for entire course. I do hope the above drugs decrease fatality and improve recovery times. Also read that Covid "immunity" (from natural antibodies I think and not vaccine induced) will last around 2 months...

Vijayk, any news from Dr. Vishal @ HCG Cancer center about his Cytokine Storm drug trials on Covid patients?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 20 Jun 2020 20:32

Zynda wrote:Read that both Favipiravir and Remdesivir have gotten approval for Covid treatment. Dunno about Favipiravir, but Remdesivir seems to be expensive at approx INR 60,000 for entire course. I do hope the above drugs decrease fatality and improve recovery times. Also read that Covid "immunity" (from natural antibodies I think and not vaccine induced) will last around 2 months...

Vijayk, any news from Dr. Vishal @ HCG Cancer center about his Cytokine Storm drug trials on Covid patients?


I haven't received any news on it. He said he will send an update ...

I heard Fabi Flu has been approved (Favipiravir) ...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 20 Jun 2020 20:41

Zynda wrote:Read that both Favipiravir and Remdesivir have gotten approval for Covid treatment. Dunno about Favipiravir, but Remdesivir seems to be expensive at approx INR 60,000 for entire course. I do hope the above drugs decrease fatality and improve recovery times. Also read that Covid "immunity" (from natural antibodies I think and not vaccine induced) will last around 2 months...

Vijayk, any news from Dr. Vishal @ HCG Cancer center about his Cytokine Storm drug trials on Covid patients?


*Glenmark launches Favipiravir in India*
*Dosage*

** 3,600mg (9 tabs*200mg twice a day) on Day1, followed by 1,600mg per day (4 tabs*200mg twice a day) from day2 up to day 14, along with supportive care.

** Early initiation of treatment could lead to saving mild and moderate patients from slipping into severe and critical illness.

*Price*
MRP: INR3,500 for pack of 34 tablets, ~INR103 per tablet

*Manufacturing, availability and distribution*
** Backward integration with internally synthesized API. Product to be manufactured at Baddi facility and would be available beginning today in some parts of the country (closer to manufacturing unit) and across India within a week.

** Drug to be available through hospital as well as retail Chemists

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 20 Jun 2020 21:10

^^So will Favipiravir will be included in to standard treatment protocol for most patients in India? INR 3,500 for the entire course is reasonable. Russians are at least swearing by Favipiravir. So hopefully it helps as much as possible. Perhaps in a week or two, we will see the effect of this drug on recovery rate.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 20 Jun 2020 23:42

Zynda wrote:^^So will Favipiravir will be included in to standard treatment protocol for most patients in India? INR 3,500 for the entire course is reasonable. Russians are at least swearing by Favipiravir. So hopefully it helps as much as possible. Perhaps in a week or two, we will see the effect of this drug on recovery rate.


Lets hope for best.. One unusual thing I noticed on Fabiflu strip was its expiry date.. It is going to expire in sep 20.. It seems it has very short shelf life..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 21 Jun 2020 20:02

Is there a reason why GJ's covid death rate is twice the national average ? Whatever ails the healthcare system in GJ ails much of the other states as well, so i am curious why the state has such a high death rate ? It is because of poor diet led co-morbidity or something else ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 21 Jun 2020 21:08

BLR records its highest number of daily cases at 197. Doctors are seeing a lot of ILI, SARI cases in BLR, which has confounded them. Not sure if this is replicated in other parts of India. Speaking to people who have come in to KA/BLR from other states, the quarantine stamp place on the wrists rub off in 3-4 days after application of soap and/or sanitizer (not election grade ink). Many people are breaking quarantine with impunity and even attending work. KA government is talking about treating/managing rising infections rather than controlling it. Honestly, with things opened up, I am not sure even if the rising infections can be controlled without an extended strict lock-down (to which BSY has said an absolute NO. Also there is no certainty that another lock-down will yield the desired results). At this moment, all hopes are on Fabiflu and/or Remdesivir to improve the recovery rate and shorten the time needed as well.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 21 Jun 2020 21:16

Majority of the cases in BLR Urban are from people returning from MH or abroad. Given that 70% of the covid cases in top 5 worst effected districts in Karnataka can be traced to MH orUAE tells us two things - UAE and likely much of middle eastern kingdoms are under-reporting their covid numbers, and MH probably has well over 25% of its population if not more who are covid positive, its just that majority of them may be asymptomatic .


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