Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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SRoy
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 18 Jul 2020 03:25

KL Dubey wrote:
SRoy wrote:There is a problem with the death counts.

With the widespread news of patients denied admission, because some are yet to be tested positive, because they don't know someone higher up to get a bed, because they cannot cough (pardon the pun) out that kind of cash.
.....

What I really dislike (in this forum and elsewhere) is the claim that we are doing good, things are opening up, getting back to normal etc. etc.
It's not the case on the ground.


When you say "widespread news" and "on the ground", are you talking about Kolkata ? All of West Bengal ? Or do you have eyes and ears all over India ?



I work in Ahmedabad.
Most of my close and extended family are spread all over India.
Right now my own department is working from home from various places (multiple states).
In IT we have this silly business of daily standups so, I get to know what's happening in many places.
Since I deal with public sector projects I get to hear stuff from equipment suppliers and end customers (civic agencies).


But don't worry.
All is well, after all we get to idle away hours on BRF. Therefore, be assured masses are safe.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 18 Jul 2020 04:39

sudarshan wrote:So 2/3 (not counting the kids) recovered fine, I think the good news is that even with preconditions, if they're under control, there shouldn't be too much of a problem in recovering.


That is good news indeed. Yet caution is advised. We don't know whether recovered people are immune to another bout of infection. Antibodies have developed or not? If so how long is the protection? These two questions are not answered as yet.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 18 Jul 2020 04:54

SRoy wrote:Many of these patients are dying after a few days. And these deaths are not included in the count of official COVID19 induced death numbers.

Were those people positive in the first place (when they were turned away due to whatever reasons)?
Were those people infected when they were hopping hospitals in search of an admission there?

For statistical purposes, can't the authorities - municipality or whoever grants death certificates assign a few village medical officers to draw blood from the dead, refrigerate till such time tests can be done on those blood samples? It would be useful data in future. It can show the dynamics of the pandemic.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 18 Jul 2020 11:17

We seem to be able to control the cases if we really want to but the idea seems to be to let the cases increase till hospital capacity before pulling them back. I just hope we are closer to herd immunity and this nightmare will end soon.
Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 18 Jul 2020 11:51

- 1.5 L for 3 days seems exagerated .. It is wrong if somebody is charging this much.. Unless pt asks for super delux facilities average charges are between 6 k to 10k

- Number of Investigations required for Covid pts are higher than usual and they constitute large part of pts bill..

- As I mentioned in previous post , hospitals are not able to get staff for covid work.. To retain staff and RMOs hospitals are now paying 3 to 4 times usual salaries.. Specialized staff working in ICU, ventilator management is even hard to get..Even after paying advance and increaed salaries it is not sure that particular person will show up tomorrow..

- with exception of few corporate hospitals most multispeciality hospitals are not equipped to handle very large number of respiratory pts.. Average 100 beded hospital usualy have 3 to 5 ventilators.. hospitals have to invest very large amount of money in buying ventilators , HFNO , oxygen lines , oxygen concentraters etc.. It may be waste expenditure after say 6 months when pandemic is over..

- Daily running cost has gone up due to tremendous O2 consumption( We require more than 100 large cylinders per day) , Every staff has to use PPE , even pt being sent for usg, CT need to use PPE kits..

- Doctors are facing tremendous health risk due to prolong exposure in environment with high viral load.. Many experienced doctors have Htn, Diabetes etc.. Still they are working tirelessly since this pandemic started.. Most doctors have not increased their consulting / visiting charges..

- People are suffering financially , so are hospitals..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 18 Jul 2020 12:48

^^

Thanks for sharing the picture from a medical professionals point of view.
Absolutely makes sense, but also it explains why patients are unfortunately turned away in many places.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 18 Jul 2020 14:10

SRoy wrote:^^

Thanks for sharing the picture from a medical professionals point of view.
Absolutely makes sense, but also it explains why patients are unfortunately turned away in many places.


- There is in general ignorence about insurence in common public.. many people have no provision for possible healthcare needs.. This catches them by surprise and many pts blame it on doctors for high healthcare cost.. Fact is Starting a hospital and running it according to all modern protocols is costly.. For example starting a 50 beded hospital in metro city will require around 15 to 18 Cr.. For first 5 to 7 ys there hardly any profit ..

- Govt healthcare schemes do not allow to provide quality care.. Suppose a poor pt has perforated peptic ulcer .. Poor pts mostly come late when disease is fairly progressed .. Usualy there is septic shock, multiorgan failure etc.. For such pt govt will pay 16000 .. for 16 k they expect hospital to do All investigations including CT , blood tests , Xray , usg etc then operate pt , cover all ICU care and post op complications, all drugs including discharge medicines, transportation and food irrespective of duration of stay and severity of disease.. In what world is it possible ? plus hospital wont get this money for months and insurance can decline package for technical reasons after pt is already treated

- Healthcare is neglected for decades .. Still we are doing good as a nation.. Many slum areas were hotspots in last month.. Now we get hardly any pt from there.. Even areas like Malegaon which looked like timebomb awaiting to explode is fairly stabilized..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 18 Jul 2020 14:41

Thyrocare is offering Covid Antibody test for 699 including collection and tax.
They will collect sample at home and the results will take up to 72 hrs. Booking can be done through onemg and Netmed.
How accurate is this test?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 18 Jul 2020 16:07

Krita wrote:Thyrocare is offering Covid Antibody test for 699 including collection and tax.
They will collect sample at home and the results will take up to 72 hrs. Booking can be done through onemg and Netmed.
How accurate is this test?


Most available kits in market are fairly accurate..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby abhishekm » 18 Jul 2020 18:12

BBMP commissioner received marching orders today. He went public with a 2 week lockdown request but Yeddiyurappa has refused to sanction an extension to the 1 week lockdown in Bangalore.

IMHO Yeddiyurappa is doing the best he can under current circumstances.

The state health minister recently said "only God can save us now". He's walking around with a triple filter air mask with an electronic voice output microphone. If the contraption was black in color it would resemble Darth Vader's mask.

In the meantime, a centralized bed availability database for Bangalore is up and running with numbers that are supposed to be updated hourly:
http://chbms.bbmpgov.in/portal/reports

Zynda ji are there any other links that are useful for the citizens of Bangalore?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 18 Jul 2020 18:47

abhishekm wrote:The state health minister recently said "only God can save us now". He's walking around with a triple filter air mask with an electronic voice output microphone. If the contraption was black in color it would resemble Darth Vader's mask.


I need to find a picture of this guy.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvjayan » 18 Jul 2020 19:01

Ambar wrote:
nvishal wrote:Now there is a rumour floating around that the municipalities are intentionally giving +ve results to earn money. They keep these people in general ward for 3 days and then discharge them with a 1.5 lakh bill.


I had mentioned this in one of my earlier posts that someone i know personally was asked to get themselves tested because of contact and later they too tested positive . They were forced to quarantine for 2 weeks in a govt facility but throughout the 14 days zero medication was administered and there was no follow ups either, and at the end of the 14th day they were simply asked to go home. Now it could be the local authorities cooking up data to get the central funds or the typical government bureaucracy with confused policies where the care does not go beyond quarantining. Whatever it is, the situation in many states is now alarming, and it requires a thorough rethinking on how to contain this. Btw, i am fairly confident that the numbers out of middle-east is as fake as the paki numbers. Nearly 1 in 2 returning from GCC countries is now testing positive, but yet those countries are reporting deaths in single digits and cases in double digits.


In Chennai the govt. has created "covid care centres" to accommodate people who have tested positive, but asymptomatic. These centres are essentially unused/unoccupied multi-storied housing complexes. The place is not overcrowded, "patients" are fed reasonably well, but apparently no temp.or O2 check, no treatment and no visit by doctors. At the end of two weeks, they are given the option of discharge or continued stay for another four days. At the time of discharge no test/measurement and the "patients" are strictly instructed to be under house quarantine. Pick-up and drop through govt. transport (ambulance with chairs).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 Jul 2020 19:10

abhishekm wrote:BBMP commissioner received marching orders today. He went public with a 2 week lockdown request but Yeddiyurappa has refused to sanction an extension to the 1 week lockdown in Bangalore.

Apparently, BSY did not even allow BBMP commissioner & his experts to present their POV. He shut them down early saying "lock down is not a solution".

abhishekm wrote:In the meantime, a centralized bed availability database for Bangalore is up and running with numbers that are supposed to be updated hourly:
http://chbms.bbmpgov.in/portal/reports

So finally this link is working. Was supposed to be up & running last week itself. Thanks for posting it here again.

abhishekm wrote:Zynda ji are there any other links that are useful for the citizens of Bangalore?

I think as of now, that portal link is probably the most useful one. Hopefully, the numbers are fairly accurate...

BLR also has some Covid Care Centers functioning with more coming online in the next few weeks...the largest being 10,000 bed facility @ Bangalore International Exhibition Center (BIEC)...part of it was supposed to be functioning as of now but got mired in a scam/controversy

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KL Dubey » 18 Jul 2020 19:14

SRoy wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
When you say "widespread news" and "on the ground", are you talking about Kolkata ? All of West Bengal ? Or do you have eyes and ears all over India ?



I work in Ahmedabad.
Most of my close and extended family are spread all over India.
Right now my own department is working from home from various places (multiple states).
In IT we have this silly business of daily standups so, I get to know what's happening in many places.
Since I deal with public sector projects I get to hear stuff from equipment suppliers and end customers (civic agencies).


But don't worry.
All is well, after all we get to idle away hours on BRF. Therefore, be assured masses are safe.


OK - I suggest that it is time to remove/update your location from Kolkata since people will get confused.

Statistics are not perfect. Not even in the US....there are many reports about people that never got tested and died, who are not included in the numbers. The healthcare system is not perfect either.

I believe India overall has done/is doing much better than the US or other countries. The overall situation speaks for itself. E.g., The doubling rate of fatalities is about 1 month now as of today, as opposed to 14 days one month ago.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 Jul 2020 19:22

chola wrote:I need to find a picture of this guy.

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SRoy » 18 Jul 2020 19:44

KL Dubey wrote:
SRoy wrote:

I work in Ahmedabad.
Most of my close and extended family are spread all over India.
Right now my own department is working from home from various places (multiple states).
In IT we have this silly business of daily standups so, I get to know what's happening in many places.
Since I deal with public sector projects I get to hear stuff from equipment suppliers and end customers (civic agencies).


But don't worry.
All is well, after all we get to idle away hours on BRF. Therefore, be assured masses are safe.


OK - I suggest that it is time to remove/update your location from Kolkata since people will get confused.

Statistics are not perfect. Not even in the US....there are many reports about people that never got tested and died, who are not included in the numbers. The healthcare system is not perfect either.

I believe India overall has done/is doing much better than the US or other countries. The overall situation speaks for itself. E.g., The doubling rate of fatalities is about 1 month now as of today, as opposed to 14 days one month ago.


Since we are working from home, location doesn't matter.
I have been to Kolkata and back twice in the lock down.

Situation is same on the ground. Ad hoc lock downs, health care inaccessible to the poor, generally callous attitude of general public.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 18 Jul 2020 20:03

KL Dubey wrote:...

Statistics are not perfect. Not even in the US....there are many reports about people that never got tested and died, who are not included in the numbers. The healthcare system is not perfect either.


I would say - especially in the US, statistics are not perfect. Lots of shady accounting going on. I'm also not able to find age-profiles of deaths in the US, other countries have it. But then, the US never does anything the way other countries do :roll: .

I believe India overall has done/is doing much better than the US or other countries. The overall situation speaks for itself. E.g., The doubling rate of fatalities is about 1 month now as of today, as opposed to 14 days one month ago.


You want an example of "imperfect statistics?" This "doubling rate" number is one, IMHO. It makes sense when the growth is geometric, then the doubling rate correlates directly with growth rate. When the growth is linear, like now (i.e., number of deaths is relatively constant day by day) then the doubling rate is misleading. Of course the doubling rate is 1 month now, as opposed to 14 days one month ago - that simply reflects the fact that the total/ cumulative number of deaths now is twice what it was one month ago, so the doubling rate also increased by a factor of 2.

If the number of daily deaths stays relatively flat (currently around 700 a day), or even slowly (not geometrically) increasing (as it is doing now), then the doubling rate will keep going down with time (i.e., the doubling time will keep increasing). In another two months from now, assuming the same number of deaths per day, the doubling time will be 60 days instead of 30 right now. But that doesn't mean the situation is improving, the same number of people are still dying every day.

For some reason, this "doubling rate" metric caught on in India, I wish it hadn't.

But I agree, India right now is doing better than other *hotspots* (not other *countries,* some or even most other countries, especially in Europe and east Asia, are doing much better than India right now).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 18 Jul 2020 20:36

As an example:

Say you had 0 debt right now, but were starting to pile on Rs. 1 lakh of debt per day.

In 30 days, you have Rs. 30 lakhs of debt. At that point, to double your debt would take another 30 days.

In 60 days, you have Rs. 60 lakhs of debt. At that point, to double your debt would take another 60 days.

In 120 days, you have Rs. 1.2 crores of debt. At that point, to double your debt would take another 120 days.

Would you feel good about the fact that your doubling rate was reducing (i.e., doubling time was increasing)? You're still piling on the same amount of debt per day, nothing has changed.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 18 Jul 2020 20:36

Delhi: Coronavirus positive children develop symptoms of rare Kawasaki disease
https://www.opindia.com/2020/07/kawasak ... -symptoms/
Hospitals in Delhi are witnessing coronavirus positive children develop symptoms of the rare Kawasaki disease, latest reports say. Kawasaki disease is caused by factors yet unknown and mainly affects children under the age of 5. The disease causes inflammation in blood vessels throughout the body. This particular disease can last up to five days and is not known to respond to medications.

The doctor added, “We are not exactly saying they were infected with Kawasaki, but they had Kawasaki-like symptoms. The children had unexplained tachycardia and some of them were in a state of shock. All these positive cases were managed in the Covid care area.” Dr Rachna Sharma, in-charge of the paediatric intensive care unit at BLK hospital, believes that these symptoms are a consequence of an abnormal immune response to the Coronavirus infection.

She said, “This is not a direct effect of the virus but an abnormal immune response induced by it. This multisystem inflammatory syndrome also causes a lot of digestive issues, like there are children who are presented with just pain in the abdomen, vomiting and loose motions. If you do not recognise the symptoms early, then they may have a fatal outcome. Some children may also have kidney failure.”

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 18 Jul 2020 21:28

Question for people who were/are in Gelf coundries....From news reports, it appears that a large (if not all) number of Indians (and other foreigners) have left gelf- UAE, Qatar, Dubai and Saudi Arabia (perhhaps?) due to Covid. As I understand it, these countries, esp. Dubai, are heaviliy reliant on foreign labor for most of their blue collar and white collar jobs. I can see some IT-related work gettgin done from India (or locally) but work like construction, carpentry, cleaning and other general labor tasks needs people on site. Who is doing that work now? I hear Dubai is 90% foreigners, so they musht have been hit hard and lot of work is stopped?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KL Dubey » 18 Jul 2020 21:36

sudarshan wrote:You want an example of "imperfect statistics?" This "doubling rate" number is one, IMHO. It makes sense when the growth is geometric, then the doubling rate correlates directly with growth rate. When the growth is linear, like now (i.e., number of deaths is relatively constant day by day) then the doubling rate is misleading. Of course the doubling rate is 1 month now, as opposed to 14 days one month ago - that simply reflects the fact that the total/ cumulative number of deaths now is twice what it was one month ago, so the doubling rate also increased by a factor of 2.

If the number of daily deaths stays relatively flat (currently around 700 a day), or even slowly (not geometrically) increasing (as it is doing now), then the doubling rate will keep going down with time (i.e., the doubling time will keep increasing). In another two months from now, assuming the same number of deaths per day, the doubling time will be 60 days instead of 30 right now. But that doesn't mean the situation is improving, the same number of people are still dying every day.


Technically, that *is* a real improvement in an epidemic, because it means the virus is not killing people/not spreading as fast as in an uncontrolled situation. It also shows an encouraging trend..first the "doubling time" (a simple way of measuring longer-time direction than just the slope of the graph on a particular day) increases, then goes to infinity (i.e. no more new deaths).

You can't compare that with somebody being in debt (faulty analogy - please think through before posting). You can reverse debt, but you can't reverse fatalities in an epidemic.

For some reason, this "doubling rate" metric caught on in India, I wish it hadn't.


It is a handy metric for tracking an epidemic.

But I agree, India right now is doing better than other *hotspots* (not other *countries,* some or even most other countries, especially in Europe and east Asia, are doing much better than India right now).


The European countries that are "doing better now" went through a massive wave of rapidly escalating infections and deaths, completely unprepared health systems, and huge economic pain. India hasn't experienced that (at least, not yet - and it doesn't seem we will end up like that). The initial lockdown measures allowed time for preparation, and the rate of increase in cases is much lower than in those European countries. I'm not talking about just "now", I am talking about the entire pandemic.

As for east Asia, you really can't compare small countries like Korea, Taiwan etc to India. I agree Japan has done a good job, though it is still a much smaller country compared to India.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KL Dubey » 18 Jul 2020 22:06

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/iran-estimates-it-has-25-million-coronavirus-infections/articleshow/77036293.cms

Official estimate from Iran claiming 25 million cases since the beginning. Another reminder that tracking the "number of cases" means nothing. Only reasonable - even if imperfect - way is to track number of deaths.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KL Dubey » 18 Jul 2020 22:08

SriKumar wrote:Question for people who were/are in Gelf coundries....From news reports, it appears that a large (if not all) number of Indians (and other foreigners) have left gelf- UAE, Qatar, Dubai and Saudi Arabia (perhhaps?) due to Covid. As I understand it, these countries, esp. Dubai, are heaviliy reliant on foreign labor for most of their blue collar and white collar jobs. I can see some IT-related work gettgin done from India (or locally) but work like construction, carpentry, cleaning and other general labor tasks needs people on site. Who is doing that work now? I hear Dubai is 90% foreigners, so they musht have been hit hard and lot of work is stopped?


For menial/semi-skilled labor, I am under the impression that aren't that many Indians...mostly Pak, Bangla, etc. ? I don't think these countries have brought their people back. I could be wrong on both counts.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 18 Jul 2020 22:28

DrRatnadip wrote:
Krita wrote:Thyrocare is offering Covid Antibody test for 699 including collection and tax.
They will collect sample at home and the results will take up to 72 hrs. Booking can be done through onemg and Netmed.
How accurate is this test?


Most available kits in market are fairly accurate..

Thanks for the confirmation. I have booked a slot for tomorrow. They will be collecting blood sample at my residence.
Also, does Arsenic Album 30C have any side effects.
I have consumed 10 drops daily on empty stomach for past one month. A homeopathy doctor whom I consulted recently told me that it should be consumed only thrice a month.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 18 Jul 2020 22:33

KL Dubey wrote:Technically, that *is* a real improvement in an epidemic, because it means the virus is not killing people/not spreading as fast as in an uncontrolled situation. It also shows an encouraging trend..first the "doubling time" (a simple way of measuring longer-time direction than just the slope of the graph on a particular day) increases, then goes to infinity (i.e. no more new deaths).


Yes, it's a good thing that it is not uncontrolled, but the doubling time only makes sense in a geometric situation. A better way to represent the phenomenon would be "compounded rate of growth of daily deaths" (not of cumulative deaths). If that rate of growth is negative, the situation is winding down. Right now it is mildly positive - daily deaths slowly going from 500 to 600 to 700 now, and that means there is a smoldering situation which could potentially explode.

EDIT:

If you want to look at doubling time, it might be better to do that for daily deaths, rather than cumulative deaths. I.e., how fast is the rate of change increasing/ decreasing? Since the daily deaths number seems to be following a geometric trend, but the cumulative deaths are not (I can show charts for this), the doubling time would make sense for daily deaths.

END EDIT:

You can't compare that with somebody being in debt (faulty analogy - please think through before posting). You can reverse debt, but you can't reverse fatalities in an epidemic.


:) So isn't the above a good reason to adopt a *stricter* metric of whether or not things are improving, when it comes to epidemic fatalities, and not just feel relieved that "doubling time is going down?"

It is a handy metric for tracking an epidemic.


I feel that the growth rate of daily deaths is handier. But that's me, we don't have to agree on this.

The European countries that are "doing better now" went through a massive wave of rapidly escalating infections and deaths, completely unprepared health systems, and huge economic pain. India hasn't experienced that (at least, not yet - and it doesn't seem we will end up like that). The initial lockdown measures allowed time for preparation, and the rate of increase in cases is much lower than in those European countries. I'm not talking about just "now", I am talking about the entire pandemic.

As for east Asia, you really can't compare small countries like Korea, Taiwan etc to India. I agree Japan has done a good job, though it is still a much smaller country compared to India.


You are probably right that the initial lockdown allowed time for preparation, in fact the same thing happened during the 1918 pandemic. Parts of the world which locked down ended up with far fewer fatalities, because:

1. Of course, during the lockdown, there were fewer fatalities (obvious)

but more importantly,

2. By the time they released the lockdown, the virus had mutated into less severe strains, so there was no ramp up of cases and deaths when the lockdown ended

Yes, the rate of increase in India is a lot less than the initial rates in European countries, I'm actively tracking this and have the charts to show this, my concern is that India still seems in the ramp-up stage, don't know how much farther it will go.
Last edited by sudarshan on 18 Jul 2020 22:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 18 Jul 2020 22:34

KL Dubey wrote:... Another reminder that tracking the "number of cases" means nothing. Only reasonable - even if imperfect - way is to track number of deaths.


On this I whole-heartedly agree.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 19 Jul 2020 00:16

Gujarat FDCA unearths fake Tocilizumab injections’ racket
https://tfipost.com/ians-news/gujarat-f ... ns-racket/
Gandhinagar, July 18 (IANS) The Gujarat Foods and Drugs Control Authority (FDCA) has unearthed a racket in the manufacture and sale of fake Tocilizumab injections, seizing machinery and raw material valued at Rs 8 lakh from a Surat premises.

Ahmedabad’s Dr Devang Shah stumbled upon the racket while using 400mg Tocilizumab injection of dubious quality during treatment of patient Lataben Baldua. The injection was procured by her relative.

Shah and the relative complained to the FDCA regarding the fake injection allegedly procured from M/s Maa Pharmacy in Sabarmati in Ahmedabad for Rs 1,35,000.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 19 Jul 2020 00:52

Community spread has started and the situation is bad, observes IMA

NEW DELHI: With one million people getting affected by Covid-19, the Indian Medical Association (IMA) is of the view that community spread has started and the situation is pretty bad.


"This is now an exponential growth. Every day the number of cases is increasing by more than around 30,000. This is really a bad situation for the country. There are so many factors connected with it but overall this is now spreading to rural areas. This is a bad sign. It now shows a community spread."


Dr Monga further said, "Cases are penetrating down into towns and villages where it will be very difficult to control the situation. In Delhi, we were able to contain it, but what about interior parts of the country in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Goa, Madhya Pradesh (which may be the new hotspots)?"

"All these issues are very important and the state governments should take full care and seek help of the Central government to control the situation," Monga said.


"This is a viral disease that spreads very fast. To contain the disease there are only two options. Firstly, 70 per cent population contracts he disease and gets immune, and other is getting an immunisation," stated Monga.

"There has to be phases of trials then human trial, then efficacy and side effects. Also, importantly it has to be seen how long this immunity will last because most of the patients are unable to go beyond three months of immunity," said Dr Monga said.


Isn't Serum Institute of India conducting Oxford's vaccine Ph-3 trials in Pune? Oxford vaccine Ph-1 & Ph-2 (or just Ph-2?) trails results are expected on Monday and the buzz is that it is positive. Apparently, the vaccine gives a double benefit of promoting growth/production of T-cells as well as antibodies. Not sure how long the vaccine will be effective but even if its 6 months, it will give a respite. Oxford is hoping to start production of vaccine by Sept/Oct (if all goes well in Phase-3).

I believe SII is geared up to produce few hundred millions of doses by year end but I guess not all of them doses will be available for India. If I was NaMo, I would get on the phone with Boris Johnson and see that other pharma companies in India get to make Oxford's vaccine so that larger amount of doses will be accessible. First in line should be HCWs followed by police & other front line workers.

Second question, how would one increase the chances of protection if community transmission has started? Would a face shield help along with wearing face masks?
Last edited by Zynda on 19 Jul 2020 01:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 19 Jul 2020 00:55

How come countries do not seem to have any intelligence to act on to know what concrete steps Wuhan had taken to bring the pandemic to a screeching halt in their part? Untested vaccine? Untested drug of some sort? Whatever it was seems to have clearly worked inspite of overwhelming odds with respect to population density and conditions.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 19 Jul 2020 01:25

Zynda wrote:
chola wrote:I need to find a picture of this guy.

Image


Only thing needed to complete the Darth Vader look is the German WWII helmet.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 19 Jul 2020 01:35

sajo wrote:How come countries do not seem to have any intelligence to act on to know what concrete steps Wuhan had taken to bring the pandemic to a screeching halt in their part? Untested vaccine? Untested drug of some sort? Whatever it was seems to have clearly worked inspite of overwhelming odds with respect to population density and conditions.


I think people do know. The Japanese, Koreans, Taiwanese and Hong Kongese would be the best placed to get that intelligence and they were the most successful at bringing the wuhan virus under control. Obvious?

But I don't think you even need intelligence for this stuff. I think the formula is simple -- ruthless lockdowns (recall the videos of people being boarded up inside their homes) and tracing without regards to any privacy concerns along with testing. The intrusive privacy stuff is simply unpalatable outside East Asia.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby MeshaVishwas » 19 Jul 2020 02:24


Cannot even imagine the scale of impact here considering our Population density.
My best wishes to all those working to find a vaccine and may you succeed before further devastation ensues.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 19 Jul 2020 03:02

^^^ If true, they are nearing herd immunity and with only 13K deaths? Then it is not so bad at all. I rather doubt it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 19 Jul 2020 03:05

Given that for normal people, the body is able to produce the required anti-bodies to kill the Chinese virus, I feel we should be able to rollout a vaccine much quicker than other diseases.

Since there are thousands of cured people, vaccine developers basically need to check the amount of anti-bodies that a cured person's body has created to kill the virus.

So if the vaccine develops the same amount of anti bodies, they can be fairly certain it will kill the virus. Body doesn't have natural immunity against other diseases, which makes it longer to create a vaccine for such diseases.

I feel most of the vaccine developers are looking for safety parameters. They can control the antibody level by controlling the dosage. More the dosage i.e. "dead" viral load, larger the antibodies developed..

This might explain ICMR's confidence of getting a vaccine soon..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 19 Jul 2020 03:07

chola wrote:^^^ If true, they are nearing herd immunity and with only 13K deaths? Then it is not so bad at all. I rather doubt it.


The spainish ran a large antibody test and found that only 15% of the population were infected. This virus is rapid spreading in high density location, but not easily spreading across larger areas..

So the Iranian guy is fundamentally telling his people, not to expect anything from the government.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 19 Jul 2020 09:15

Vayutuvan wrote:
SRoy wrote:Many of these patients are dying after a few days. And these deaths are not included in the count of official COVID19 induced death numbers.

Were those people positive in the first place (when they were turned away due to whatever reasons)?
Were those people infected when they were hopping hospitals in search of an admission there?

For statistical purposes, can't the authorities - municipality or whoever grants death certificates assign a few village medical officers to draw blood from the dead, refrigerate till such time tests can be done on those blood samples? It would be useful data in future. It can show the dynamics of the pandemic.


Irrespective of whether people are dying of Wuflu or not, the overall death rate will see an uptick and inform if there are hidden deaths. As long as that is not happening it is all rumors and there are plenty of those floating around. In this day and age when you need a death certificate irrespective of cause of death, back calculating real casualties in a country like India are fairly easy.
This is very hard in China where data can be fudged at each stage. Similarly with other command and control countries. However for most others excess deaths can be easily estimated. Right now India is not seeing excess deaths which means that the numbers being reported are close to actual s with some variations.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 19 Jul 2020 09:18

sajo wrote:How come countries do not seem to have any intelligence to act on to know what concrete steps Wuhan had taken to bring the pandemic to a screeching halt in their part? Untested vaccine? Untested drug of some sort? Whatever it was seems to have clearly worked inspite of overwhelming odds with respect to population density and conditions.


This thing does slow down in epicenters after a while because it probably hits the most vulnerable, people start taking a lot of precautions and perhaps there is some degree of immunity. India will see the slow down in Delhi and Mumbai too as this happens.
The same must have happened in Wuhan where real casualties were close to 40k deaths. Aggressive masking, some degree of herd immunity, death of most vulnerable and other protocols. It’s not rocket science. You can see the same in Italy hotspots as well. This can be controlled but it requires a whole host of protocols

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rishi_Tri » 19 Jul 2020 10:09

Zynda wrote:Community spread has started and the situation is bad, observes IMA


[b]I believe SII is geared up to produce few hundred millions of doses by year[/b] end but I guess not all of them doses will be available for India. If I was NaMo, I would get on the phone with Boris Johnson and see that other pharma companies in India get to make Oxford's vaccine so that larger amount of doses will be accessible. First in line should be HCWs followed by police & other front line workers.

Second question, how would one increase the chances of protection if community transmission has started? Would a face shield help along with wearing face masks?


A couple of months ago had read through detailed article on BBC (one of rare ones now a days on BBC that talks about positive thing about India) on Indian vaccine manufacturing capacity.. Here it is:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52363791

Coronavirus: How India will play a major role in a Covid-19 vaccine
Soutik Biswas - India correspondent - 27 April 202


----India is among the largest manufacturer of generic drugs and vaccines in the world. It is home to half a dozen major vaccine makers and a host of smaller ones, making doses against polio, meningitis, pneumonia, rotavirus, BCG, measles, mumps and rubella, among other diseases.

Now half a dozen Indian firms are developing vaccines against the virus that causes Covid-19.

One of them is Serum Institute of India, the world's largest vaccine maker by number of doses produced and sold globally. The 53-year-old company makes 1.5 billion doses every year, mainly from its two facilities in the western city of Pune. (It has two other small plants in the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.) Around 7,000 people work for the firm.---

----This is where Indian vaccine makers have a head start over others. Mr Poonawalla's firm alone has an extra capacity of 400 to 500 million doses. "We have lots of capacity as we have invested in it," he says.--

BTW -- IMA is an absolutely inept isomer of WHO, only good enough for 'IMA Accepted' stamps on Indian toothpastes. Nobody even pays attention to it.

PS: Per Ministry of Health briefing that I listened to last week, India produces 60% of vaccines in the world. So, I am inclined to say: We should be in good place, also with the desi vaccine also entering trials.

PPS: GOI had asked all vaccine manufacturers to work aggressively to literally double the vaccine capacity and the effort had started in April'20. So all in all, capacity that may be devoted to China Virus out of India could run into billions of doses, taking all manufacturers into consideration.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 19 Jul 2020 22:07

Many Covid-19 Patients Dying Of Unique Fungus In Lungs, Researchers Begin Probe
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/many-covi ... egin-probe
A team of researchers has for the first time discovered hybrid fungus involved in lung infections and are investigating the role of fungi in Covid-19.

Several Covid-19 patients have died owing to concomitant infection by Aspergillus.

Aspergillus latus, a species of fungus previously found only in soil or plants, has been found for the first time in a hospital environment by an international group of researchers.

Aspergillus latus, a species of fungus previously found only in soil or plants, has been found for the first time in a hospital environment by an international group of researchers.

The group sequenced its genome and discovered that it is actually a hybrid and is up to three times more drug-resistant than the two species from which it derives.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 20 Jul 2020 00:23

The insanity going on here because of politics is beyond belief.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/18/covid-19-cases-us-icu-beds-south-west


Trump reportedly seeks to block testing funds as Covid-19 surges across south and west


* US logs more than 70,000 new cases a day as stimulus debated

* Senate Republicans frustrated by White House stance – report

* US faces terrifying autumn as Covid-19 surges


Jessica Glenza in New York
Published on Sat 18 Jul 2020 17.34 EDT


Covid-19 cases are surging across much of the American south and west, as familiar scenes of weary doctors and nurses in packed hospitals replay across a whole new region.

In Washington, Congress is gearing up to pass another economic stimulus package. Optimistic economists once thought such a package could be unnecessary, but Covid-19 is now expected to continue to hurt the economy.

The White House is reportedly trying to hurt any resultant bill. According to the Washington Post, the Trump administration is pushing to block billions of dollars for state-run testing and tracing, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and attempts to combat the pandemic at the Pentagon and state department.

The US is now logging more than 70,000 new Covid-19 infections a day, according to Johns Hopkins University, up from a low of around 20,000 in early June.

Nearly 3.7 million people have been diagnosed with Covid-19 and more than 139,000 have died since January, when the disease was first found in the US.

“People continue to regard the virus as a political scheme or conspiracy theory,” Dr Chad Dowell, a doctor in Indianola, Mississippi, said in a Facebook post released by South Sunflower county hospital.

“People continue to ignore recommended guidelines on how to help slow the virus’ spread. People continue to complain about wearing a mask. We’ve got to do better as a community.”

Experts consider rising hospitalization rates a likely harbinger for a surge in US deaths, which as a lagging indicator, have remained relatively low. In the last week, hospitals from Florida to southern California have filled with patients in need of intensive care.



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