Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Jarita
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 06 Aug 2020 03:30

The thing with ayurvedic medication is that many of the allopathic doctors may not be willing to administer medicines without understanding its content, source and efficacy . I feel someone who is healthy and wants to take natural medicines as a precautionary measure can and should try ayurveda, but someone who is already infected with medium to severe condition may be difficult candidates because at that point they are already hospitalized.


Armtwisting them works. In the past I have been able to get them to administer ayurvedic medicines for a relative (unrelated to COVID19) with amazing effects. Unfortunately, despite the fact that they rarely face malpractice suits etc in India, they have 0 willingness to try other protocols.
Even if you don't have big name connections, being adamant about full transparency helps. Sometimes that implies sitting there for 15-20 hours. That degree of scrutiny is the only way to get them to move.
I wonder if we could have a COVID19 board of shame - name and shame the hospitals, bureaucrats, organizations.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_Sharma » 06 Aug 2020 08:03

TWITTER

@Globaltimesnews:

A new type of virus, which is likely to be passed to be infected after bite by ticks, is emerging in China, with more than 60 people infected and at least seven killed. https://t.co/kCTngN2BeP https://t.co/0jC3r9LLRO

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/sta ... 93057?s=19

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 06 Aug 2020 10:37

nachiket wrote:Is it legally possible for local governments to compel private hospitals to treat covid patients? Maybe some national security law can be used to threaten prosecution for ones who do not comply if another more pertinent law is not available. It is simply impossible to manage a pandemic of this size if private healthcare centers do not pitch in fully. Especially in India with our dilapidated public healthcare setups in many places. I have not heard of any other country where hospitals are refusing to treat covid patients like this.


This is already happening.. Govt is using emergency epidemic act to compel hospitals and doctors to treat.. I am fully aware that epidemic of this magnitude is impossible to manage without involvement of private hospitals.. Most hospitals and doctors I know are voluntarily involved in care of covid cases..Sadly its like we want send our soldiers to war to risk their lives and we are asking them go to market to buy guns and bullets from their own pocket first.. We want soldiers to arrange their own transport , fuel, food etc and Win the war too..

Govt should also help procuring supplies, paying salaries, paying enormous electricity and oxygen bills, paying huge EMI due to bloated land prices, giving adequate protection to HCW against vandalism ..

Why public shouldn't be blamed for this mess.. People vote for cast, monuments or even liquor .. Nobody gives importence to improved healthcare infrastructure .. People dont ask for better hospitals unless someone near and dear to them is ill..

Why our trillian dollar economy is not able to make it easy for
doctors to open hospitals.. Why we cant give electricity water etc for cheaper non commercial rates to hospitals for at least first three years.. Why govt is not willing to waive heavy taxation on hospitals especially startups.. It is almost like govt wants only corporate entities to be able to run hospitals for profit.. Our healthcare system both private and govt require major surgery.. Compelling hospitals to admit pts is just bandaid and wont work..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 06 Aug 2020 11:03

Jarita wrote:
nachiket wrote:Is it legally possible for local governments to compel private hospitals to treat covid patients? Maybe some national security law can be used to threaten prosecution for ones who do not comply if another more pertinent law is not available. It is simply impossible to manage a pandemic of this size if private healthcare centers do not pitch in fully. Especially in India with our dilapidated public healthcare setups in many places. I have not heard of any other country where hospitals are refusing to treat covid patients like this.


Apparently, under the colonial pandemic law it is. Unfortunately, many of the investors in the private hospitals are bureaucrats and other stakeholders. So they are making money like hoarders.
Someone who is familiar with the details of the pandemic law should be able to elucidate the application.


I agree with you sir.. Investers and beurocrates are earning significantly in this pandemic.. Sadly those actually taking risks to treat pts are not getting their regular salaries also and unfortunately they are the one who are often targets of public anger..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 06 Aug 2020 16:14

What would it take for the government to absorb cost of expensive drugs like Remdesivir or Tocilizumab? Can a scheme like direct benefit transfer linked to Aadhar work? The kind of footwork needed to procure these essentials that the mango man needs to do is simply going to seed a lot of negativity about the handling of this pandemic.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 06 Aug 2020 17:12

sajo wrote:What would it take for the government to absorb cost of expensive drugs like Remdesivir or Tocilizumab? Can a scheme like direct benefit transfer linked to Aadhar work? The kind of footwork needed to procure these essentials that the mango man needs to do is simply going to seed a lot of negativity about the handling of this pandemic.


It will cause too much corruption i guess.. But giving these drugs especially Tocilizumab is saving lives.. Timing of administration of tocilizumab is very critical.. It acts like miracle if given on proper time i.e just at beginning of cytokine storm.. Few hours late and effectiveness falls significantly.. Few more hours later it simply doesn't work..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 06 Aug 2020 17:53

Thank you for your insight Dr. Ratnadip. My question was around that onlee... how can the Govt ensure that lives can be saved and at the same time everybody gets a fair shot at treatment, not just the wealthy and powerful ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 06 Aug 2020 18:49

DrRatnadip wrote:
nachiket wrote:Is it legally possible for local governments to compel private hospitals to treat covid patients? Maybe some national security law can be used to threaten prosecution for ones who do not comply if another more pertinent law is not available. It is simply impossible to manage a pandemic of this size if private healthcare centers do not pitch in fully. Especially in India with our dilapidated public healthcare setups in many places. I have not heard of any other country where hospitals are refusing to treat covid patients like this.


This is already happening.. Govt is using emergency epidemic act to compel hospitals and doctors to treat.. I am fully aware that epidemic of this magnitude is impossible to manage without involvement of private hospitals.. Most hospitals and doctors I know are voluntarily involved in care of covid cases..Sadly its like we want send our soldiers to war to risk their lives and we are asking them go to market to buy guns and bullets from their own pocket first.. We want soldiers to arrange their own transport , fuel, food etc and Win the war too..



I don't think it is being enforced, doctor. Most hospitals even in metros/tier1 cities are not accepting covid patients, and the handful of ones that do either have no beds available or have prices which is beyond the reach of a common man. I have heard anywhere from 8 to 10 lakhs per patient as the average cost in some of these corporate hospitals that are treating covid patients. Besides, in the early days when my dad was hospitalized we were inquiring about ambulances to move him to a private hospital in a metro around 4 hrs away but none of the ambulances would accept covid patients including air ambulances. Unless atleast 50 to 60% of private hospitals play a part, and every available doctor below the age of 45 with no underlying conditions is called back to duty, the patients and their families will just have to pray and hope that luck works in their favor.

As for Remdesivir , atleast in Karnataka the government hospitals are administering the drug free of cost. Tocilizumab is only available on the black market and that too with a great difficulty, we had to source it ourselves. It certainly is a bit of a wonder drug which improved the condition of lungs within 24-36 hrs of administering the 1st dose, but with covid there is no saying what happens to patients even those who display encouraging signs.

Someday this pandemic too will end, i just hope that the vaccine researchers and pharma companies wont slowdown their efforts to find a effective prevention or cure the way they did after SARS. It is worrying that in just the first 20 years of this century this is the 4th(and the biggest) viral disease that has struck our world, and i'm afraid without a vaccine this wont be the last.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 06 Aug 2020 20:35

https://www.wionews.com/india-news/nova ... ute-318452
Novavax signs COVID-19 vaccine supply deal with India's Serum Institute

Novavax Inc said on Wednesday it has entered a supply and license agreement with the Serum Institute of India for the development and commercialization of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate.

The Indian drugmaker will have exclusive rights for the vaccine in India during the term of the deal and non-exclusive rights during the "Pandemic Period" in all countries other than those designated by the World Bank as upper-middle or high-income countries.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 06 Aug 2020 20:36

DrRatnadip wrote:
nachiket wrote:Is it legally possible for local governments to compel private hospitals to treat covid patients? Maybe some national security law can be used to threaten prosecution for ones who do not comply if another more pertinent law is not available. It is simply impossible to manage a pandemic of this size if private healthcare centers do not pitch in fully. Especially in India with our dilapidated public healthcare setups in many places. I have not heard of any other country where hospitals are refusing to treat covid patients like this.


This is already happening.. Govt is using emergency epidemic act to compel hospitals and doctors to treat.. I am fully aware that epidemic of this magnitude is impossible to manage without involvement of private hospitals.. Most hospitals and doctors I know are voluntarily involved in care of covid cases..Sadly its like we want send our soldiers to war to risk their lives and we are asking them go to market to buy guns and bullets from their own pocket first.. We want soldiers to arrange their own transport , fuel, food etc and Win the war too..

Govt should also help procuring supplies, paying salaries, paying enormous electricity and oxygen bills, paying huge EMI due to bloated land prices, giving adequate protection to HCW against vandalism ..

Why public shouldn't be blamed for this mess.. People vote for cast, monuments or even liquor .. Nobody gives importence to improved healthcare infrastructure .. People dont ask for better hospitals unless someone near and dear to them is ill..

Why our trillian dollar economy is not able to make it easy for
doctors to open hospitals.. Why we cant give electricity water etc for cheaper non commercial rates to hospitals for at least first three years.. Why govt is not willing to waive heavy taxation on hospitals especially startups.. It is almost like govt wants only corporate entities to be able to run hospitals for profit.. Our healthcare system both private and govt require major surgery.. Compelling hospitals to admit pts is just bandaid and wont work..


so sad ...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nachiket » 06 Aug 2020 23:35

DrRatnadip wrote:
nachiket wrote:Is it legally possible for local governments to compel private hospitals to treat covid patients? Maybe some national security law can be used to threaten prosecution for ones who do not comply if another more pertinent law is not available. It is simply impossible to manage a pandemic of this size if private healthcare centers do not pitch in fully. Especially in India with our dilapidated public healthcare setups in many places. I have not heard of any other country where hospitals are refusing to treat covid patients like this.


This is already happening.. Govt is using emergency epidemic act to compel hospitals and doctors to treat.. I am fully aware that epidemic of this magnitude is impossible to manage without involvement of private hospitals.. Most hospitals and doctors I know are voluntarily involved in care of covid cases..Sadly its like we want send our soldiers to war to risk their lives and we are asking them go to market to buy guns and bullets from their own pocket first.. We want soldiers to arrange their own transport , fuel, food etc and Win the war too..

<snipped>


Sir I am not blaming doctors and nurses for anything. They are the ones fighting on the frontlines and putting their lives on the line every day. We can never thank them enough for what they are doing.

My problem is with the hospital owners and admins who made the decision not to accept covid patients and from what I can see there are quite a few. Their actions mean that the doctors in other hospitals (govt. and private) have to deal with double the load (and the risk) not to mention the plight of patients who don't find any hospital bed till its too late. This is simply unfair to those doctors as well as tragic as far as the patients are concerned.

All hospitals need to share the load or else this will keep getting worse. Right now we have one set of people going way beyond the call of duty and even giving up their lives to save others while another set do nothing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jayram » 07 Aug 2020 02:55

Jayram wrote:My heartfelt condolences to all the members here going thru loss of their near and dear ones. As of tonite 3 members of extended family effected in India and 1 family friend obgyn physican here in NY. 2 Passed away and the 3rd has just been admitted into hospital. The two that passed away exhibited initial symptoms of covid and then died of a heart attack. There was no testing done at that point. The family members over there moved quickly and obtained a death certificate citing natural causes and cremation was done with a few hours by a dedicated municipal team with zero rituals and minimal attendance. This is why death rate due to covid is under reported. Folks are dying and there is no time or motivation for a postmortem.
Family members here are in a dilemma not able to travel and risk exposure and anyway too late for any performing last rites.
Physician friend is a young 49. She had a major (miraculous) recovery due to Tocilizumab due good medical treatment at the same hospital she works at. An ICU attending administered it on time even though it was not on the protocol at that time. Stopped the cytokine storm and was in her opinion the reason for the recovery. This was at the height of the pandemic in NY city. Today she is still out of breath walking up stairs but has returned to work.

The 3rd family member admitted into a private hospital has now passed away less than 1 week after exhibiting symtoms of fever and less than 24 hours after being addmitted. He was 65 and a relatively healthy person retiring as a ACP. He was transferred to ICU and and ventilator but suffered a cardiac arrest and was unreviable. His wife has also now tested positive. His children (my cousins) are travelling to Hyd regardless of personal risk and quarantine restrictions. They know the risks but who can blame them for trying to be close to family at this time. Be careful everyone. This is ravaging India.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 07 Aug 2020 03:14

They are always preying.

https://www.indcatholicnews.com/news/40100

The parish of Saint Anthony in the area of Dharavi, in the archdiocese of Bombay, is helping to stem the spread of the Covid-19 virus in Dharavi, one of the largest slums in the world, in the Mumbai area. The World Health Organization (WHO) has praised hygiene and nutrition projects introduced by the parish in the slum, which covers an area of 2.5 square kilometres and houses a population of 650,000.

People live there live in shacks and dilapidated buildings with narrow alleys and open sewers. WHO said the virus is currently under control thanks to the work of community groups, including parishioners from St Anthony's.

Parish priest Fr Christopher D Jeyakumar, said it was "a good result in the fight against coronavirus and in the work of social solidarity."

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 07 Aug 2020 04:37

Jayram wrote:The 3rd family member admitted into a private hospital has now passed away less than 1 week after exhibiting symtoms of fever and less than 24 hours after being addmitted. He was 65 and a relatively healthy person retiring as a ACP. He was transferred to ICU and and ventilator but suffered a cardiac arrest and was unreviable. His wife has also now tested positive. His children (my cousins) are travelling to Hyd regardless of personal risk and quarantine restrictions. They know the risks but who can blame them for trying to be close to family at this time. Be careful everyone. This is ravaging India.


My deepest condolences Jayramji. I hope God gives the family of the bereaved strength because i now know how hard each day can be after losing a loved one. I don't know what is causing sudden cardiac arrest in covid patients, even in those who seem to be on the path of recovery. I was reading an article on cnn about a study conducted in Germany on 100 covid survivors, and around 75 out of 100 showed biomarkers of heart damage, so i can imagine what it does to someone with existing heart condition. What a misery china has unleashed on this world..i hope there is some cure soon.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 07 Aug 2020 04:59

Mods, is it possible to do an anonymous poll on the forum, to gauge how many members have lost near and dear ones, or not so near but still dear ones? This disease is really puzzling, on the one hand it seems there are many asymptomatic cases, and there are people who say they know of five or six others who got it, and recovered without difficulty. Then there are those who say they know of five or six others who got it, and none recovered :-?. This alternating between hope and despair is unnerving onlee, I never much liked see-saw games when young, either you get stuck high and dry, or if the other kid does, then you can't get off without bonking your jewels.

Frickin' Americans seem to have lost interest in getting tested. Apparently when they go for testing, they face wait times of hours, and lots of people simply turn their cars around and drive away. Or once they get tested, the wait time is five days to get the results. So again, lack of interest. It seems the facilities are there, the funds are there, but people are getting discouraged from getting tested. Doesn't seem like the reduced testing is because of political games, thankfully.

EDIT:

https://apnews.com/aebdc0978de958f20ab3f398cdf6f769

END EDIT

Right now, the US numbers have come down a lot because of reduced testing. I'm multiplying them by a factor of 1.25 to make sense of them (testing having come down roughly 20%). With the multiplication factor, they are still in the 70 K/ day range :(. And it seems that it is India which is heading for 1 lakh cases a day. The infection seems to have burned through the lower strata of Mumbai, maybe the higher layers are now getting it. Have downloaded a lot of data, pending analysis.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jarita » 07 Aug 2020 06:27

What India desperately needs is an early onset protocol and every family in areas of spread should have a drug cocktail for early onset especially for the vulnerable. This would be controversial in the west but we need
- home based tests (else half the people are not getting tested either way)
- access to an oximeter
- preemptive protocol package - HCQ, Ivermectin, Steroids etc

We have a big lacuna in this area. We are focusing on the spread which is like stopping a damn burst and then on treatment protocols when people demonstrate symptoms.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 07 Aug 2020 06:46

^ That IndianExpress article posted by Doc Ratnadip put it very well, reproducing below. The second paragraph in the excerpt below is almost exactly what you said.

sudarshan wrote:
DrRatnadip wrote:https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/coronavirus-covid-sero-survey-6520579/


Thank you doc, sounds very hopeful.

From the above (added emphasis is mine):

The second conclusion that we must draw is that the virus is indeed intensely infectious. It has jumped over roadblocks, slipped through containment zones, evaded quarantine and contact tracing and managed to infect 43 lakh anonymous people, whose names have not appeared in any official record or contact lists. Most of them had mild or no symptoms. Those who had more severe symptoms and visited a clinic, entered into the official corona rosters. Whatever be the claims of our top bureaucrats, scientists and ministers, this transmission has happened right under their very noses.

Worldwide, the management of the disease has revolved around three key operations. The first is to control transmission, the second is to provide access to those who are ill, and finally, the third is to evolve the science of treatment. The worst excesses in India have been in the name of controlling transmission. In fact, common people, traders and industrialists, workers and farmers, are vexed by the current patchwork of local and regional lockdowns and a range of regulations which are purported to “break the chain of transmission”. We now know that this is futile. What is needed is a rapid response to symptomatic patients and a statistical approach to transmission, of simple rules of masks, ventilation and distance. Of better designed public spaces and markets, auto rickshaws and bus schedules, and new ways to manufacture new products. And, of course, to avoid super-spreading events.


This is what I was referring to as the "Parikshit syndrome," where one locks himself up in a tower trying to avoid the unavoidable. In the case of COVID, it seems that the much feared "transmission" isn't such a bad thing, the need is to avoid super-spreading events which lead to large viral loads, in turn leading to many more severe infections and deaths. Like many have pointed out in this thread (including me), case counts are misleading at best, meaningless at worst (as seen above, the true case count is like 40 times the official one), the need is to focus on severe disease cases, hospitalization, and death counts.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sum » 07 Aug 2020 06:59


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby BajKhedawal » 07 Aug 2020 09:15

I have been hearing that a disproportionate amount of covid deaths in the Indian community in USA are actually healthcare workers (doctors, pa's, nurses, etc). Does anyone have any idea on actual numbers?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 08 Aug 2020 11:11

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/indias ... 423958.cms

India's Covid talley highest in world in August..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Shivaji » 08 Aug 2020 11:50

FWIW...

Me and my family had recovered from Covid 19. It is more than a month since we have recovered.

My wife's swab test had showed her to be Covid positive. However, my sister-in-law and my own swab test was not conducted as we had recovered by then.

So I registered for antibody test for myself and sister-in-law on one private website. Their executive visited us and collected blood samples within 5 minutes and left. We received results online. Experience has been smooth and without any fuss.

Details of test and interpretation is below for reference:
COVID ANTIBODY IGG - C.M.I.A --> value of index < 1.4 indicates Negative while value more than 1.4 indicates positive.
Uses recombinant protein representing the Nucleocapsid (N) antigen
The kits used are approved by ICMR

Result is negative for sister-in-law (diabetic) but positive for myself. This is a bit surprising as all of us had same symptoms.
No new patients in our society meaning no one got it from us!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 09 Aug 2020 10:29

Shivaji wrote:FWIW...

Me and my family had recovered from Covid 19. It is more than a month since we have recovered.

My wife's swab test had showed her to be Covid positive. However, my sister-in-law and my own swab test was not conducted as we had recovered by then.

So I registered for antibody test for myself and sister-in-law on one private website. Their executive visited us and collected blood samples within 5 minutes and left. We received results online. Experience has been smooth and without any fuss.

Details of test and interpretation is below for reference:
COVID ANTIBODY IGG - C.M.I.A --> value of index < 1.4 indicates Negative while value more than 1.4 indicates positive.
Uses recombinant protein representing the Nucleocapsid (N) antigen
The kits used are approved by ICMR

Result is negative for sister-in-law (diabetic) but positive for myself. This is a bit surprising as all of us had same symptoms.
No new patients in our society meaning no one got it from us!


Shiva'ji., It must have been an ordeal. But looks like you are through the worst of this crises and actually feel safer overall! That is the fear of unknown is gone!

Stay positive, stay healthy and may you thrive in all your pursuits.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 09 Aug 2020 10:32

I think the low CFR in India due to Coronavirus among other things is due to exposure to common cold.

https://www.timesnownews.com/health/article/common-cold-infections-may-train-your-body-to-identify-covid-19-finds-research/633494

Me and my cousin were notorious of catching common cold while growing up. Every year we would have at least 2-3 episodes of common cold. Hopefully the above studies gives me hope for myself! :-)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 09 Aug 2020 17:50

Ideally this study should have been done by india, a low hanging fruit to establish research credential & soft power..but looks like we are not there yet!
Oxford enrolling 40,000 in tropical countries to check efficacy of HCQ in preventing nCV https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... s-12043367

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 09 Aug 2020 17:52

Indian Billionaires Bet Big on Head Start in Coronavirus Vaccine Race-NYT

serum institute of India are cranking 500 doses of vaccine every minute. Oxford Vaccine formula already has reached India in May and millions of copies are being made non stop! Not clear when but at a point vaccines will be divided in 2 halves, one will go abroad and another stays in India. Owner Poonawala is getting non stop calls from country heads of ME , Africa to friends to give that mythical vaccine asap

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 09 Aug 2020 19:41

Is there any study done of the cause of spread? Is it between un-related people or maximum through family members? Does it happen inside the house/work place? or in transports (busess, trains?)

Viral load is a factor in the level of infection. Does staying away from public transport reduce the chances of infection? or less viral load if infected?

How is the infection level in rural areas? who generally are not crowded as cities.

Wish we had more information on the cause of infection.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 09 Aug 2020 19:45

Time and time we continue to see people not taking mask seriously. Hero in this video didn't take off his dark glasses but did contaminate his mask by sliding it down. People see it on tv and then ape this bad practice.

amar_p wrote:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 09 Aug 2020 20:37

IndraD wrote:Indian Billionaires Bet Big on Head Start in Coronavirus Vaccine Race-NYT

serum institute of India are cranking 500 doses of vaccine every minute. Oxford Vaccine formula already has reached India in May and millions of copies are being made non stop! Not clear when but at a point vaccines will be divided in 2 halves, one will go abroad and another stays in India. Owner Poonawala is getting non stop calls from country heads of ME , Africa to friends to give that mythical vaccine asap


I am praying this to work. I hope Modi allocates a Billion to these guys whether it works or not. This family has been doing a great service to humanity by taking this risk.

Even at this rate, they can only make 260 million viles a year. How long it will take to to vaccine all Indians?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 09 Aug 2020 22:23

I guess it was only a matter of time before we reached 1000 deaths/day, we unfortunately crossed that number today. As has been the case for the last 3 months MH alone accounts for 40% of that number. What troubles me is that the worst hit states are also some of the wealthiest states in the country with atleast some semblance of healthcare system and relatively high number of tests, its anybody's guess as to what the numbers are in many underdeveloped states.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 09 Aug 2020 23:56

India breaches the 4 digit mark on deaths/day :-? (I see Ambar has beaten me to that).

Since deaths correlate with case count from weeks ago, and since the case count has been continuously rising, deaths/day are going to rise for a while.

These csv formats from around the world are all over the place. Some have dates in a row, some have them in a column, some are flattened with one entry per line. Tallying them together is an interesting experience.

Need to see which states are still accelerating. MH is a strong contender obviously.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 10 Aug 2020 00:39

vijayk wrote:Even at this rate, they can only make 260 million viles a year. How long it will take to to vaccine all Indians?

I think SII is starting Ph-2 & Ph-3 trials of Oxford vaccine in India from this month. They are expecting Ph-2 itself to take a month...SII CEO says they are hoping for vaccine roll out by early 2021 to masses. I think the current format of vaccine calls for double doses i.e. two doses 14 days apart...first in-line will be HCWs followed by vulnerable population (throw in politicians, HNIs, celebrities to get vaccine dosage early on)...I guess it will take at least a good 6-12 months before entire India can be vaccinated. Further, I think vaccination will be done per cities/regions based on density, movement etc. Metro cities will be further along the line since they top in density, population movement/mixing hence greater chances of spreading. But first, the vaccine should work & be approved. Until then mask up, try to maintain social distancing & practice hand washing as much as possible.

Edit: Apparently Russia will be releasing its Covid vaccine on Aug 12th. I am not sure if that vaccine will be available for export and if India/Indians will be willing to accept a vaccine from a country whose certifying processes are not transparent. I do hope ICMR looks in to this vaccine and if satisfied, conducts its own Ph-2 & Ph-3 trails in India (just like they are doing for Oxford one) and if successful, one more vaccine could be available.

Also Moderna's & Pzifer's vaccine along with 3 Chinese ones have or are entering Ph-3 trials. So probably the next 2-3 months should tell us how many of these vaccines will be successful. I doubt we would be using Chinese vaccines so our best hope is on Oxford followed by the other two vaccines.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 10 Aug 2020 03:04

The Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine is different from ICMR Covaxin. That one is going into Phase-III.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/gates-foun ... 1596804573

Does anyone know when Covaxin is suppose to go to Phase-III this August. Does anyone know its status?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chanakyaa » 10 Aug 2020 08:03

Coronavirus impact is global, but in the US the availability (and related announcements) of final vaccine candidate is going to be highly correlated (of course no absolute guarantees) to the election date in November (3rd).

Pfizer and BioNTech to Supply Canada with their BNT162 mRNA-Based Vaccine Candidate
...
Pfizer and BioNTech began a Phase 2b/3 safety and efficacy trial and remain on track to seek regulatory review as early as October 2020, and to manufacture globally up to 100 million doses by the end of 2020 and approximately 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021
...


(WHO) Draft landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines (Download PDF)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 10 Aug 2020 18:32

IMO media isn't playing their part by openly calling out various entities when caught without mask. During RJB event, many guests were flaunting mask guidelines but media didn't make a point on it. Jain sadhus wear basic mask all the time so it should not have been that hard for all guests there to be wearing one. There are many everyday events on media where people aren't faithfully following mask guidelines and media doesn't call them out before broadcasting.

Double hike in fine charged for mask rule violation in Gujarat from Tuesday
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/08/10/ ... m-tuesday/
Gandhinagar: There has been yet another hike in the amount of fine charged for mask rule violation. Chief Minister Vijay Rupani today told media persons that Rs. 1,000 fine will be collected for violation of mask rule in the State starting from tomorrow as per the Gujarat High Court order. Since 1st August, the effective fine for not wearing mask in the State is Rs. 500.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby a_bharat » 11 Aug 2020 13:22

Came across some information, based on which it looks like:
  1. Not all people are susceptible to Covid-19
  2. Some 40-50% unexposed people already have immunity from T-Cells (from earlier corona viruses, so this virus is not so "novel")
  3. 80-90% of family members of infected persons are not getting infected
  4. If 20% people get infected, we may reach herd-immunity level (because of #2 above) as seen in NYC and Stockholm
When NYC was at peak, the US infection rate (infected / tested) was running at 17%, IIRC. At that time it was at 4% in India. Now, we are at 10% in India (the last few weeks there were about 30% antigen based tests that have higher rate of false negatives, so we may be runnig well above 10% now).

We may reach herd immunity before the vaccines become widely available.

Check out this twitter thread

and this video:

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 11 Aug 2020 14:35

I hope they dig in further to understand, why some household have higher level, while some don't.

I can think of the Big B household. He was positive, not his wife, his son & his wife were positive. This is almost the entire family.

My theory, this is because of the type of house they have. They probably live in air conditioned house, move around in air conditioned car, which is not an ideal environment.

For regular household, this would not be the case. An household with good open window and air flow, probably reduces the viral load transmitted.

I believe as long people don't get in to crowded place with no proper airflow, we could reduce the amount of transmission. In India the public transport must be one of the prime reason for transmission.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby a_bharat » 11 Aug 2020 14:43

The theory of 40-50% people not being susceptible to the virus has many counter examples. Can't explain mass infections at TTD or Tablighi event etc. But it also has supporting data and examples of NYC and stockholm which seem to have reached Herd Immunity at 20% infection rate.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 11 Aug 2020 20:08

It seems like in UP, Ivermectin + Doxy combo is being prescribed for Covid. ICMR should have started large scale trails of this drug much further back to test its efficacy. A cheap drug combo available OTC could have helped but probably ICMR did not take the combo seriously because its usage & success was first publicly revealed by a doc in BD. I know many Doctors in India are prescribing the drug but an official guide or suggestion from ICMR would have been better. Hopefully, usage of this combo would spread to other states as well.

UP govt directs use of drug Ivermectin for treatment of COVID-19 patients, to replace HCQ

The Uttar Pradesh government has approved the use of ivermectin tablet for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19.

This drug will be used as a replacement for hydroxychloroquine.

The drug will also be given to frontline health workers in COVID-19 hospitals, apart from people infected with COVID-19 and their contacts.

Ivermectin tablets are being used in many hospitals of the country including AIIMS, Lady Hardinge Medical College and Max Hospital in Delhi.

Further, the health department has instructed people who came into contact with COVID-19 positive patient to take this drug in order to protect them from possible infection.

Invermectin, a tablet used to treat parisitic infections like head lice, scabies, river blindness, strongyloidiasis, trichuriasis, showed effective results on COVID-19 in various studies conducted by various researchers.

In one such research study conducted by Xi’an Jiaotong University involving 116 patients who tested positive for COVID-19, the combination of Ivermectin with Doxycycline was seen to be a far superior treatment regime than Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin therapy in mild to moderate COVID-19 infections.

It is to be noted that hydroxychloroquine tablets were only being taken by frontline health care workers. The ICMR had recommended the use of the anti-malaria drug as a preventive treatment against COVID-19 for asymptomatic healthcare workers in non-COVID hospitals, frontline personnel deployed in containment zones, and paramilitary/police officials involved in coronavirus infection-related activities.


In other news, Russia has announced its Covid vaccine even before Ph-3 trials are officially started. Ph-3 trials of the same will start from Wednesday and Russia hopes to roll out to masses by end of Sept or in October. Apparently, even one of the Putin's daughter was inoculated by the vaccine and she developed slight fever which cleared out on its own by 2nd day. If Putin's daughter "survived", I guess, the confidence in the vaccine should have been great by the developers :) Anyways, good for the Russians...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 11 Aug 2020 20:12

NZ report 4 new cases from a single family. Out of 6, 4 turned positive. No history of travel and source not identified yet. 1st report in 100 days.

It is an interesting case. The person went to the doctor, where he was found positive. So the virus must be in the community, but the symptoms are not bad enough that people feel like going to the doctor.

They must have got in the past week. It would be interesting to see what does NZ find out. I also think, the family members are increasing viral load among themselves, where the most susceptible person deteriorates.

Wonder if wearing mask at home would help..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 11 Aug 2020 20:20

I believe developing Chini virus vaccine would be easier than other virus, because the body itself has a mechanism. And there are millions of people who have been cured. This is the biggest differences. Body doesn't have natural immunity to other viruses. That's why it is very difficult to develop vaccine.

So the developers just need to know the amount of antibodies and T cell that required to be generated and they can get this information from a cured person.

What they want to find out is safety parameter. The reason concern in the virus is the RNA and the vaccines will not have any active RNA. We also must have enough knowledge about the proteins, to know it's effects, based on experience of developing other vaccine.


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