Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Ambar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 11 Aug 2020 20:53

Zynda wrote:It seems like in UP, Ivermectin + Doxy combo is being prescribed for Covid. ICMR should have started large scale trails of this drug much further back to test its efficacy. A cheap drug combo available OTC could have helped but probably ICMR did not take the combo seriously because its usage & success was first publicly revealed by a doc in BD. I know many Doctors in India are prescribing the drug but an official guide or suggestion from ICMR would have been better. Hopefully, usage of this combo would spread to other states as well.

UP govt directs use of drug Ivermectin for treatment of COVID-19 patients, to replace HCQ
..


Isn't Ivermectin the same drug which was widely used in several latin american countries ? I think Peru,Chile and Colombia used it with mixed results but most western countries stayed away from it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 11 Aug 2020 21:08

a_bharat wrote:Came across some information, based on which it looks like:
[list=1]
[*] Not all people are susceptible to Covid-19
[*] Some 40-50% unexposed people already have immunity from T-Cells (from earlier corona viruses, so this virus is not so "novel")
[*] 80-90% of family members of infected persons are not getting infected
[ Now, we are at 10% in India (the last few weeks there were about 30% antigen based tests that have higher rate of false negatives, so we may be runnig well above 10% now).




Every Antigen negative is retested with RTPCR. I guess this is in ICMR protocol for testing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 11 Aug 2020 21:13

I really really wish Govt.Of India would educate the masses on symptoms, phases and dangers of covid. Just like other viral infections what we see is that the sooner one gets tested, starts a antiviral and antibiotic treatment, the higher the chances of recovery. Even among young and healthy people once the virus infects the lungs there is no saying what happens next. Many people including doctors don't know about the "second week collapse" - mild to moderate symptoms in the first week that tends to improve with some antibiotics but then suddenly the condition rapidly deteriorates in the second week, this is exactly what happened to my father just before he was hospitalized.

Sadly our testing procedures are not adequate. In most places people have to wait for hours in crowded corridors of government hospitals to get tested which deters many from getting themselves tested in the first place. We need complete participation of private labs and hospitals to effectively combat this pandemic. Even among the handful of private institutes that are accepting covid patients, the exorbitant charges are beyond the reach of most people. Off late there's another peculiar issue showing up repeatedly in local newspapers and that is suspicious reporting of cases as covid positive even when the cause of death or injury has nothing to do with covid. Yesterday i read a story of a 91 year old man who fell from the stairs and died of bleeding. When he was taken to the dist.hospital he was said to be covid positive, and the administration refused to release his body to the family members. Such news has become common place and there is speculation that the district health administration and local governments are doing this to get central funds which runs close to Rs 2 lakhs to 3 lakhs/case.

Overall, i'm afraid things will get much worse before it gets better for us. For European countries, East asian countries and some US states the rise,peak and fall in deaths/cases took 8 to 10 weeks, but in India, Brazil and Mexico it looks like we continue to climb or remain near peak for almost 3 months now. I sure hope there is a effective vaccine and a potent drug to cure the virus in majority of the cases soon, don't know how long we can sustain this otherwise.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 11 Aug 2020 21:19

Ambar wrote:Isn't Ivermectin the same drug which was widely used in several latin american countries ? I think Peru,Chile and Colombia used it with mixed results but most western countries stayed away from it.

Yes, it was widely used at least in Peru (& probably in other Latin American countries as well). A grass root push from doctors made the Peruvian Healthy Ministry to officially recommend it or include in treatment protocols. Not sure about results of it...perhaps it is as effective or lack of as HCQ. I think the suggestion to use Ivermectin to treat Covid came from an Australian University or Doctor. Somehow it never caught on in Western countries...

Recently, a drug of similar class (a Tapeworm drug) is being trialed in US to prevent replication of Covid virus. Probably, Ivermectin did not yield good results in a lab setting and thus was not encouraged.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 11 Aug 2020 21:28

Ambar wrote:For European countries, East asian countries and some US states the rise,peak and fall in deaths/cases took 8 to 10 weeks, but in India, Brazil and Mexico it looks like we continue to climb or remain near peak for almost 3 months now. I sure hope there is a effective vaccine and a potent drug to cure the virus in majority of the cases soon, don't know how long we can sustain this otherwise.

Its said that BBMP was asked to plan for Covid battle for the next 3 months around end of July. So they expect consistent cases at least till end of Sept or early October I think.

Good news is that apparently many BBMP operated Covid Care Centers beds are lying vacant and BBMP is thinking of shutting down a few CCCs. Probably after allowing home isolation, many patients are preferring it rather than sent to a CCC where there is a lot of suspicion about hygiene, quality of food & overall care. Private CCCs are expensive (ranging from 2,000 to 8,000 per day) and insurance does not cover the charges even if a hospital refers one to such a facility. Insurance only covers in-hospitalization charges.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby MeshaVishwas » 11 Aug 2020 21:45


Big announcement by Pres. Putin!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 11 Aug 2020 22:30

I heard (from some reliable sources in Hyderabad) our Indian vaccine will be announced tomorrow

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 13 Aug 2020 22:54

For those living in MH (esp. Mumbai, Thane and Pune) is the situation really grim or is govt of MH just making up these numbers ? Population adjust MH has consistently reported 2x the number of deaths and cases compared to the next worst hit state. Today's death toll from MH alone is 413, the highest single day number since the crisis began. Either MH's numbers are closer to reality compared to other states or they are indeed the most incompetent (very likely) or they are making up these numbers. I cannot help but wonder what must be the situation in WB,UP, Jharkhand and other less fortunate states with poor healthcare and even poor book keeping.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Jay » 13 Aug 2020 23:40

Ambar wrote:For those living in MH (esp. Mumbai, Thane and Pune) is the situation really grim or is govt of MH just making up these numbers ?


Why would any state report and overstate their death count? This is bizzare.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 13 Aug 2020 23:51

By counting suspected deaths/deaths by other causes as covid the way Belgium , France and Netherlands did.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_P » 13 Aug 2020 23:57

I live in Mumbai. My layman observations (for my immediate area, of about 2 km radius, in a north western suburb) was that the spread seemed to be fastest till about 2 to 3 weeks ago..

This is just on my personal observation of the number and frequency of the detected cases warning boards put by the authorities on the gates of apartment buildings.. which I would observe on my daily walks

My own apartment complex of 7 buildings got it's first case in mid June, the next 2 cases in mid-july. All 3 cases were middle aged public sector Bank employees, who were reporting to work almost through out the lock down.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 14 Aug 2020 00:46

The distinction between deaths *with* COVID versus *owing to* COVID has never been clear anywhere in the world. In the USA, the health department head of one of the states (Indiana or Illinois IIRC) accepted in a live interview, that any death with COVID was classified as a COVID death, and even clarified it with an example of how, so long as a person had tested positive for COVID at any point of time, the death would be noted as a COVID death. I posted that link a couple months back, in this thread.

This is not an issue that people are willing to talk about, because they see it as splitting hairs/ denying the extent of the problem (or trivializing it)/ or in general acting flippant in the face of a pandemic.

The fact is, that as long as daily death numbers are growing, the pandemic is still on. Whether it is still technically a pandemic if the actual COVID-induced deaths are in fact way less than reported - well, let's not go there.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 17 Aug 2020 12:15

Ambar wrote:For those living in MH (esp. Mumbai, Thane and Pune) is the situation really grim or is govt of MH just making up these numbers ? Population adjust MH has consistently reported 2x the number of deaths and cases compared to the next worst hit state. Today's death toll from MH alone is 413, the highest single day number since the crisis began. Either MH's numbers are closer to reality compared to other states or they are indeed the most incompetent (very likely) or they are making up these numbers. I cannot help but wonder what must be the situation in WB,UP, Jharkhand and other less fortunate states with poor healthcare and even poor book keeping.


I live in Pune, and going by the Arogya Setu status, and those infected that I know, it shows no signs of abatement here. Pune numbers seem to be accurate. 2 families I know of (both childhood friends) were tested only for those showing symptoms, for some bizarre reasons others in the family were not tested since they were not showing any symptoms.

PS : I visited a vegetable market a couple of days back, and after a day or two the status of contacts in Arogya Setu changed to "High Risk". Should note that I did not step out at all for a few days after that. They should ideally give the timestamp of high risk contact as well, so that we can guess who it may be. Also the lag between coming in contact and the app status capturing and getting updated should be more prompt, also the sync with govt servers should be in background and needn't be a manual process.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 17 Aug 2020 13:21

I see a long term trend of flattening the curve.

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 17 Aug 2020 18:41

hanumadu wrote:I see a long term trend of flattening the curve.

Image


could not see the image .. He is what I created


Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby uddu » 17 Aug 2020 19:34

https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/ ... 8266662913

Check out the twitter account of Professor Shamika Ravi. Lot of data there.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 17 Aug 2020 19:54

Another good day. Active cases dropped by 574. Recoveries (57584) have almost caught up with new cases (57981). Deaths 941.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mort Walker » 17 Aug 2020 20:25

Nearly 800K tests daily. India will surpass Russia in total tests this week.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 17 Aug 2020 21:45

uddu wrote:https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1295254158266662913

Check out the twitter account of Professor Shamika Ravi. Lot of data there.


very good info.

Good news on overall direction. MH and AP are big concerns

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 18 Aug 2020 14:21

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/pune/ci ... 602008.cms

more than 50% Pune residents in selected areas show covid antibodies..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 18 Aug 2020 17:20

DrRatnadip wrote:https://m.timesofindia.com/city/pune/citys-first-sero-survey-shows-51-5-citizens-have-covid-antibodies/articleshow/77602008.cms

more than 50% Pune residents in selected areas show covid antibodies..


But doc, that should reflect in the form of falling numbers in the City? Has the situation on the ground changed? The daily figures seems to indicate the cases are still rising, everyday, with the upper limit remaining steady only due to the limited tests. They should also test the new hotspots of west Pune , Kothrud, Baner, Aundh, apart from the Peth areas.
Pune has surpassed Mumbai to become Maharashtra's most impacted city. Second only to Delhi, but with a far lower population.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 18 Aug 2020 18:40

SII to start Phase-2 trials of Oxford vaccine in Mumbai from this week. Also Covaxin & ZyCoV-D (from Zydus Cadila) have both begun Phase-2 trials in India. However it is expected that Oxford's vaccine will be ready for mass deployment by year end (or early 2021) while the other two might make it by middle of 2021.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 18 Aug 2020 20:37

Two successive days of active cases dropping. Today they dropped by 3704. Recoveries (57937) exceed new cases (55109) by 2828. Deaths, unfortunately, 876 but showing downward trend.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby darshan » 18 Aug 2020 22:44

HM Amit Shah hospitalized
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/08/18/ ... zed-again/
New Delhi: Home minister Amit Shah has been admitted to All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS) here. He was taken to AIIMS last night. Shah is reportedly admitted in old private ward on 5th floor under the observation of AIIMS Director Guleria. Shah had recovered from Covid-19 recently after nearly two-week hospitalization during 2-14 August. He was in home isolation post discharge from hospital. According to official note released by Dr. (Prof) Aarti Vij, Chairperson of Media and Protocol Division of AIIMS, ‘Shah has been complaining of fatigue and body aches for last 3-4 days. he has tested negative for Covid-19. He has been admitted to AIIMS for post COVID care. He is comfortable and is continuing his work from hospital.’ DeshGujarat

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 18 Aug 2020 23:02

Where do you see this ? Today was a bad day numbers wise with 61k new cases and 1080 deaths. With Mexico's numbers falling i'm afraid we will soon overtake them. Really odd that in India some of the wealthiest states are now also some of the worst hit states - MH, AP, KAR, TN, DL and GJ etc. where as poor states like Bihar, WB, UP, JH, Chattisgarh and NE seems to be doing well.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 18 Aug 2020 23:07

There are too many websites with too many statistics. The website I follow seems to be little more predictable and consistent. It 'covidindiaupdates.in'. They update data at 8 am IST every day. It is maintained by Regional Field Epidemiology Training Programme (FETP).
https://ncdc.gov.in/index1.php?lang=1&l ... 22&lid=100

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 18 Aug 2020 23:33

https://www.covid19india.org/ refreshes every 30 mins, some states are late to report where as states like TN, GJ and NE states report early. Today Karnataka's numbers came late and took the daily death toll past 1000 and new cases over 60k.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 18 Aug 2020 23:34

darshan wrote:HM Amit Shah hospitalized
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2020/08/18/ ... zed-again/
New Delhi: Home minister Amit Shah has been admitted to All India Institute of Medical Science (AIIMS) here. He was taken to AIIMS last night. Shah is reportedly admitted in old private ward on 5th floor under the observation of AIIMS Director Guleria. Shah had recovered from Covid-19 recently after nearly two-week hospitalization during 2-14 August. He was in home isolation post discharge from hospital. According to official note released by Dr. (Prof) Aarti Vij, Chairperson of Media and Protocol Division of AIIMS, ‘Shah has been complaining of fatigue and body aches for last 3-4 days. he has tested negative for Covid-19. He has been admitted to AIIMS for post COVID care. He is comfortable and is continuing his work from hospital.’ DeshGujarat

Moved this here from politics thread. This pervasive body ache thing seems a common post recovery symptom for many post recovery, sometimes taking months . Has there been medical study or protocols developed to handle this for the subset of patients who report this after they're past the ~10 day period of peak illness ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 19 Aug 2020 04:34

There is a concern about Amit Shah's health since he is known to have co-morbidities including diabetes, I hope he recovers soon .
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby mappunni » 19 Aug 2020 09:53

Ambar wrote:There is a concern especially because Amit Shah is known to have commodities including diabetes. I hope he recovers soon.


More evidence suggest metformin could help treat COVID-19

https://www.diabetes.co.uk/news/2020/jul/more-evidence-suggest-metformin-could-help-treat-covid-19.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 22 Aug 2020 10:46


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby jaysimha » 22 Aug 2020 22:21


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 23 Aug 2020 16:48

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/20/pfi ... first-one/

Pfizer and BioNTech surprised many industry watchers on July 27 when they announced they would conduct a large-scale study of a vaccine for Covid-19. The surprise? The vaccine that would be tested in a 30,000-patient trial wasn’t the one for which the companies had presented data on July 1.

The reason, the companies said, was that a second vaccine seemed to generate a similar immune response, but fewer side effects. On Thursday, they posted the results from all 332 people who received either vaccine, referred to as vaccines B1 or B2 — and indeed, B2 recipients experienced markedly fewer adverse events tied to the vaccine.

“Obviously, the better tolerated the vaccine, the more I think it will encourage public acceptance of a broad immunization,” said William Gruber, the senior vice president of vaccine clinical research and development at Pfizer. “Both would have been great candidates. We were fortunate that B2 actually satisfied having both a favorable immune profile and fewer reactions.”


With the original vaccine, called BNT162b1, or B1 for short, patients between the ages of 18 and 55 had adverse events thought to be related to the vaccine 50% of the time at the 30-microgram dose. Those between the ages of 65 and 85 had related adverse events 16.7% of the time.

For the second vaccine, BNT162b2, or B2, patients between 18 and 55 had adverse events thought to be related to the vaccine 16.7% of the time, and no adverse effects thought to be related to the vaccine were reported in those between the ages of 65 and 85.


Pfizer has said that some data from its large study of the B2 vaccine could come as early as October and if the vaccine is successful, the companies could seek approval as early as that month.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 24 Aug 2020 00:22

Very close friend from Vizag passed away due to Covid-19. Very sad and feel terrible. He is just 50.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 24 Aug 2020 02:36

Condolences to the bereaved family. The situation is grim even in many of the well off states. Local news from KAR and TN are reporting Oxygen shortage now in most hospitals, apparently hospitals are consuming same quantity of oxygen in 2 or 3 days what they otherwise would in 4 to 5 weeks, and as if things werent bad enough govt. hospitals in KAR now have a severe shortage of Remdesivir. In most places private hospitals continue to sit out of the fight, and the ones that are treating covid patients are making sure the patient's family goes bankrupt after a week of hospitalization. If one is curious about the ground situation then browsing FB pages of various state medical associations and Indian Medical Association gives a good picture of the grave situation. Apparently many districts in Bihar have one partially functioning hospital serving the entire district, and most staff refuse to come to work after repeatedly being attacked by the family members of covid patients. Recently an article posted on Indian Medical Association FB page about a single doctor in charge of the entire covid ward in a district hospital somewhere in Bihar with gun totting bodyguards in the ward to protect him from irate patients and their family members.

If this is our situation then i can imagine how things must be in Pakistan, Bangladesh etc. Either their young population have developed a herd immunity already or they are dropping like flies but have no infrastructure to test and keep the books. Curiously Sri lanka seems to be doing really well , maybe being a island nation is helping them.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sankum » 24 Aug 2020 03:18

In villages and town it is in every gali. People even after having symptoms are not going to hospital seeing the bad state or lack of it and going for household traditional treatment of taking kada etc. Luckily the death rate in India is low or not documented.
In one particular sad case a 40 year old road accident victim died after 24 hours in a state capital government medical college from internal stomach injuries as doctors refused to operate on him till covid result come. Patients abandoned by doctors as also there are cases where private doctors have taken grave risk in remote places and attended patients and even operated upon.
That' totally depends on the personal character of the medical staff. I salute their good karma.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sankum » 24 Aug 2020 03:45

A very sad part of the whole thing is it is affecting human relations.
Recently in my society a 86 year old lady died of stroke and whose 93 year old husband could get only 3 relatives for funeral as his children are settled abroad.
Only I went into there house from the colony and total 3 people from colony attended the funeral.
I am comorbid with excess catecholamines from the age of 12 and nearly died of suspected pheochromocytoma at the age 23 though I survived for 25 years iand have damaged liver pancreas and digestive system . Lost my sister to a genetically related multiple myeloma to my disease a year back.
Basically depends that you are ready to die doing your duty. My salute to medical staff who have put their life on line and done their duty.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 24 Aug 2020 15:47

Image

This is a news item in telugu news papers

Home delivery of Corona drugs by Dr.Reddys labs and companies in 42 cities

Call 1-800-267-0810 or go to www.readytofigtcovid.in


Fapiviar (59-99 Rs depending on the brand)

Remsidiviar (2800-5400 depending on the brand)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 24 Aug 2020 22:47

How long does it take to get results for rR-PCR test in India and does it make a difference whether it is in a private lab or government lab? Is there a cost difference too?
I needed an aide for my bed ridden MiL who is diabetic and has heart issues. The agency found one and said as she is on the 'bench' for the past two months, she should be OK. But we insisted she take the test and 24 hours later it came out positive. She was, as far as I can tell, totally asymptomatic. No temp, no cough no breathing problem. It cost me Rs4000/-. For the next aide, they suggested a rapid test (they said 15 minute turn around and around 1000/) but we insisted on rRT-CPR and luckily 24 hours later it came out negative. I am happy that I managed to get the aide though it cost me another 4000/- This is in Hyderabad. So it looks like if private lab the turn around time is 24 hours or so.
My Sis in Law’s husband was staying in Nellore. He attended a wedding in a Church about ten days back where the attendance was limited to 20. But then there was a party where more than 200 attended (though only 50 were permitted I was told but no one cared) and no COVID19 protocol was obviously followed. No masks, no social distancing etc. For the past 5 days he was complaining of fever and cough. He took a rRT-PCR test three days back and waiting for the result. Looks like he took the rapid test and got a scan done. He is still waiting for the rRT-PCR results. This is after 3 days. They told us his OX dropped to 50% and his son managed to get some OX canisters and with that it went up to 65%. They tried to get him admitted to private hospitals/clinics and was flat out refused admission.
Just now I have received a somewhat sad news. He was finally admitted to a Govt hospital and was put on ventilator. In five days he went from developing symptoms to becoming critical. He does have diabetes and I can only now hope for the best. This Chinese virus is insidious and deadly and unless people rigidly follow the protocols we will not be able to control it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ambar » 24 Aug 2020 23:34

Sorry to hear that. In my state atleast no private labs are performing covid tests, its only at the govt hospitals, and with no private hospitals/nursing homes accepting patients without a covid negative report, one has to wait anywhere between 4 to 5 hours in crammed corridors sometimes with fully pregnant women to take the test. The turn around time is 3 days and until recently atleast the lab will only inform if one is covid positive but they don't call you if you are negative. Every state is following a different protocol, in Kar they are doing rapid antigen test and if it comes up negative only then a rt-PCR test is performed.

I hope your Brother-in-law pulls through. Are you sure about the 02 levels ? Not sure if a person can survive if 02 saturation level drops by 50%, many of those chinese made pulse meters are not accurate. The first week is critical especially in those with comorbidities/aged. The sooner one starts anti-viral treatment, the higher the chances of survival. This is the crucial mistake in my dad's case where he self-medicated himself with antibiotics the first week and by 2nd week his lungs had been infected and he never recovered from that point. And yes, this virus is real and it is very very dangerous.


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