Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 24 Dec 2020 05:17

sanjaykumar wrote:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-latest-news-cases-area-tier-4-sturgeon-variant-b1777998.html

Covid news – live: Tier 4 extended in England as new Kent variant confirmed in Northern Ireland


I hope the Chinese will protest against identification of the mutation as the Kent strain. If only to maintain consistency. But then Chinese are not the British.


The British gov knew about it since October, there should be international condemnation for their cover up as well as their poor hygiene practices that encouraged its growth. For consistency's sake, of course.

https://www.rt.com/uk/510304-heathrow-t ... trictions/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 24 Dec 2020 18:31

and now more contagious South African variant https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... th-africa/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 24 Dec 2020 18:32

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr
UAE Islamic body OKs vaccines even with pork

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 24 Dec 2020 18:33

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/uknews/13 ... ant-virus/
Both Canada & UK making plans to vaccinate children with Moderna/Oxford

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ldev » 24 Dec 2020 19:43

sanjaykumar wrote:I am getting concerned, as this pandemic rages and decimates populations of white people and also Indians (only less so), that this coronavirus may be used as a template for a biological or economic weapon.

It seems Chinese populations may have an innate resistance if not immunity to this virus. I believe it urgent that westerners and Indians study this virus intensively to isolate its vulnerabilities and stockpile defensive means. An obvious target for genetic engineering of the ACEII binding protein is to render it less immunogenic to current vaccination defenses whilst retaining its cell infectivity. I believe these avenues of study will not have escaped the Chinese.

This will have struck governments around the globe as self evident. We do not want to have to go through this every three years.


The data regarding infection rates among Chinese and other East Asians living in the West is not known, at least not publicly known. The generally accepted notion is that cases and deaths in China and East Asia are low because the populations are adhering to safety norms which are flouted in other countries i.e. wearing masks, social distancing etc. But if the data reveals that Chinese and East Asians living in the West have nil/low susceptibility to getting the virus vs the rest of the population in these countries, then I think a strong argument emerges that this virus was engineered by China. While this information is not in the public domain AFAIK, docs on the forum with an ear to the ground may be able to pick up some information.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 24 Dec 2020 21:32

It may only mean that Chinese in the west are susceptible to the Wuhan virus for the same reason that Indians travelling to India may get gastroenteritis ie waning immunity.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 25 Dec 2020 05:44

sanjaykumar wrote:It may only mean that Chinese in the west are susceptible to the Wuhan virus for the same reason that Indians travelling to India may get gastroenteritis ie waning immunity.


Right, that type of data is not gonna be definitive. I get a week of diarrhea every time I visit China or Vietnam, for example. FWIW, I work in the East Bay area, a part that has far lower Asian population than much of the rest of the Bay area, and I see a lot of Vietnamese and Filipino COVID patients (not many Chinese in the Martinez/Concord area).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 25 Dec 2020 06:51

suggestions that new variant of nCV has learnt to dodge ACE receptors hence more infectious to children https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Rferfdz3dA

Schools 'may need to close to control new variant' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55437283

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ashokk » 25 Dec 2020 15:32

Pandemic on wane? 7-day average of daily Covid cases falls below 25k
NEW DELHI: The seven-day rolling average of daily Covid-19 cases in India has fallen below the 25,000 mark as the pandemic continues to recede in the country. For any given day, the seven-day rolling average of daily cases is the average of the number of infections detected over the last week, including that particular day. It provides a more reliable estimate of Covid trends by evening out the day-to-day variations.
So, while there have been daily variations with the case count rising on some days, the seven-day rolling average has consistently declined on all days in December so far, highlighting the overall falling trend in cases. The last time the average was below 25,000 was on July 10, when the Covid count in the country was steadily rising. The average fell below 25,000 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, India recorded 23,454 fresh cases, nearly 1,700 less than the tally on the previous day. At 336, the day’s death toll remained at nearly the same level as the past seven-eight days although it was the highest in the past five days.

Although the case count has fallen significantly in Maharashtra, the state continues to report a relatively high number of fatalities. On Thursday, it registered 89 deaths, accounting for more than a fourth of all fatalities from the virus. Delhi recorded a rise in deaths, with 37 on Thursday, the second highest in the country, followed by Bengal (32), UP (23), Kerala and Chhattisgarh (both 22).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 25 Dec 2020 20:00

Coronavirus Variant Is Indeed More Transmissible, New Study Suggests
Researchers warn that the British variant is so contagious that new control measures, including closing down schools and universities, may be necessary.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/23/heal ... riant.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 26 Dec 2020 04:32

IndraD wrote:Coronavirus Variant Is Indeed More Transmissible, New Study Suggests
Researchers warn that the British variant is so contagious that new control measures, including closing down schools and universities, may be necessary.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/23/heal ... riant.html

when are they approving oxford vaccine? :shock:

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/studi ... f-covid-19
Studies suggest 4 vitamins to lower risk of severe cases of COVID-19

Along with following the CDC health guidelines, he encourages everyone to think of boosting their immune systems as a four-pronged approach, using four different supplements.

Number 1: Vitamin D, get your levels up, and you can also ask your doctor to test your levels, a very easy blood test.

Number 2: Vitamin C, we know it's working well. There have been some studies on COVID where vitamin C has shown to have very good benefits in the outcome of an illness.

Number 3: Zinc stops viral replication multiple ways, so it prevents the virus from hijacking your DNA, prevents the virus from replicating. It also prevents the virus from entering the cell, so zinc is very important right now.

Number 4: Quercetin, which is what's called a natural bioflavonoid. Quercetin opens up the cells in your body so that zinc can get inside your cells, where it works. So think of quercetin as the key. Think of zinc as the repairman, that is allowed into the house, so-to-speak," says Dr. Osborne.


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 27 Dec 2020 03:06

Boston dr suffers anaphylaxis from Moderna vaccine. Preservative polyethylene glycol present in both vaccines implicated https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... a-jab.html

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 27 Dec 2020 03:11

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhas ... 6f60854567
The Moderna Vaccine’s Antibodies May Not Last As Long As We Hoped

pandemic has brought in an era of dishonest studies !!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 27 Dec 2020 05:01

Antibodies are easy to test for, but my understanding of viral diseases is that it's primarily the T cell response that grants one immunity. Unfortunately, however, there's no good way to test for T cell immunity. For example, many patients who've received Hep B vaccine or have had Hep B lose their antibodies over time, yet they're still immune to Hep B.

That's how an immunologist friend explained to me anyway.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 27 Dec 2020 05:39

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ave-world/ 'Redemption':
How a scientist's unwavering belief in mRNA gave the world a Covid-19 vaccine

Redemption! … I was grabbing the air, I got so excited I was afraid that I might die or something.”

Katalin Karikó laughs as she recounts her reaction to the news that the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine, which is based on research she pioneered and risked her career for, was 90 per cent effective in protecting against Covid-19.

For the Hungarian-born scientist the breakthrough goes beyond the hope that the new vaccine will help turn the tide of the pandemic. It is a validation of her career-long belief in the therapeutic potential of synthetic messenger RNA (mRNA), a technology that could open the door to a new generation of medical treatments and cures.

For more than four decades, Prof Karikó has relentlessly explored how the single-stranded molecules of genetic code could be used to treat conditions from strokes and cancer to influenza. Despite demotions, countless grant rejections and, at points, deep scepticism from fellow scientists, she ploughed on.


When I am knocked down I know how to pick myself up,” she said, speaking to The Telegraph from her home in Philadelphia. “But I always enjoyed working... I imagined all of the diseases I could treat.”

Prof Karikó first began work on mRNA at a lab in Hungary in 1978, before moving to the US after her position at the Biological Research Centre in Szeged was terminated in 1985. A decade later, when at the University of Pennsylvania, Prof Karikó was again demoted when her focus on mRNA failed to attract financial backing

But determination runs in the family – Prof Karikó's daughter, Susan Francia, won a gold medal for the American rowing team during the 2012 London Olympics – and the scientist persisted.

mRNA
mRNA molecules are single-stranded slithers of genetic code formed of nucleosides which instruct the human cells to produce certain proteins. The idea was that if you synthesise mRNA code in a lab you could instruct the body to better fight a wide range of diseases.

However, for years there was a stumbling block: mRNA caused an inflammatory reaction when injected. It wasn't until 2004 that Prof Karikó and her colleague Drew Weissman found that, by using a slightly altered nucleoside in the mRNA string, the potentially fatal problem could be overcome.

That was the “big 'oh!' moment”, she said; “at that moment I felt okay, this is very, very important.”

Their paper, published in 2005, paved the way not just for the coronavirus vaccine developed by BioNTech – the German company Prof Karikó joined in 2013 – but the candidate from American firm Moderna, whose phase three trial data has shown 100 per cent efficacy.

The stakes now could hardly be higher. The total recorded case count – widely considered a vast underestimate due to patchy testing – now exceeds 60 million globally, according to the World Health Organsiation.


Manufacture and rollout
The UK has secured 40 million doses of the new vaccine, enough for 20 million people, although just 10 million doses will arrive this year.

Professor Uğur Şahin, co-founder of the company, is optimistic the first shots could be rolled out to patients nationwide in mid-December. But others have urged caution, pointing to the hurdles yet to be overcome in licencing, manufacture and distribution.

“Theoretically it is a straightforward manufacturing process,” said Dr Charlie Weller, head of the vaccines programme at Wellcome. “Yet mRNA vaccine technology is new... we have a much less well trodden path, which means potential unknowns and potential delays.”

Distribution will also be a challenge. The BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine must be kept “deep frozen” at -70C to remain stable and because the current plan in the UK is to inoculate the most frail first (many of whom are in small nursing homes) the NHS will have to go to them.

Pfizer is rolling out a logistics operation that could be taken from a Hollywood script. A plant in Michigan will serve America while Europe’s supplies will come from Belgium. The two facilities have hundreds of super-freezers, ready to store millions of doses.

'Vaccination campaign'
Once what Pfizer has dubbed “the biggest vaccination campaign in history” gets under way, the company will use a fleet of cargo aircraft to transport the vaccine across the world, planning to use space on 20 flights a day, every 24 hours in the US alone.

The vaccine will be moved in special suitcases or “thermal shippers”, each containing between 1,000 and 5,000 doses and capable of maintaining a temperature of -70C for 10 days. Their precise location and temperature will be tracked through GPS remotely.


Once the containers are handed over in the UK – no more than 72 hours after it leaves the factory – responsibility moves to the NHS. It will have to keep the suitcases cold by topping them up with dry ice. Once the vaccine is removed it can be kept in a regular fridge between 2C and 8C but only for five days. All those inoculated will need two shots, three weeks apart.

Despite the potential roadblocks, Prof Karikó is optimistic the vaccine will work and help end the pandemic.

Her confidence rests in the power of mRNA itself. She said that trial volunteers were entirely clear of the virus, even in their noses, suggesting the vaccine would work to stop transmission as well as symptoms.

“When they checked out the cohort, they found nothing, no virus in the nose. So that means it is very effective, because if people will not get anything in their nose they are not spreading [coronavirus],” she told the Telegraph.

Future strategies
If further data backs up these early observations it could have implications for vaccine distribution strategies, perhaps pointing towards vaccinating the young to slow the spread of the disease.

Regulatory hurdles still have to be overcome. Pfizer has received UK approval, but now awaits the green light from US and EU.


Assuming no flaws in the results, it is likely that emergency licences will be granted based on a balance of risk against benefits. What is perhaps less clear, given that the vast bulk of those vaccinated in trials were under 65, is if the early licences will extend to older groups from the start.

Britain’s regulator – the MRHA – is now independent of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) but is likely to want to remain in line with it and the US Food and Drug Administration. Discord between regulators would not be good for vaccine confidence.

'Cleaner' vaccine
Prof Karikó believes, though, that the mRNA vaccine could be “the safest” available. Although the technology is untested it is said by experts to be “cleaner” than conventional vaccine technologies as the mRNA code quickly degrades, leaving nothing behind.

Prof Karikó agrees. “Everything disappears, the viral protein disappears, leaving only the antibody,” she said.

She added that the proof of concept is a “dream come true” – but after years of working diligently behind the scenes, the current exposure is “a lot to handle”.

“Of course not, I could never have imagined the spotlight on this technology,” said a smiling Prof Karikó via Zoom, adding that the pandemic has elevated interest. “I have not prepared for the limelight.”

But now, unlike the 1990s, her excitement about the future possibilities is not a minority opinion.

mRNA vindication
“This is a vindication of the mRNA approach, it's the first positive phase three result for any RNA product, ever,” said Dr Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi).

“It opens up a whole new class of therapies and vaccines… as the world grapples with how to reduce the risk of future epidemics or pandemics, these are going to be critical, critical, tools,” he said.

Others have added that Prof Karikó, along with her colleague Prof Weissman, deserve a Nobel Prize in chemistry for their all important breakthrough in the mid-2000s.

“If anyone asks me whom to vote for some day down the line, I would put them front and center,” Derrick Rossi, co-founder of Moderna, told Stat News and the Boston Globe last week.

“That fundamental discovery is going to go into medicines that help the world.”

posting in full cos article needs subscription

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Dec 2020 06:25

She said that trial volunteers were entirely clear of the virus, even in their noses, suggesting the vaccine would work to stop transmission as well as symptoms.



This is significant and released now.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby dhyana » 27 Dec 2020 10:25

Clearance of detectable virus would indeed be very important. There are a couple of intranasal vaccine candidates aiming to this as well.

The morbid fascination in the media (and scientists/physicians willing to expound on the significance of these results) with antibody levels is indeed interesting. It sometimes borders on the ridiculous since it is well known that antibody levels rise (peaking usually within 3-5 weeks of infection/vaccination) and then (always) fall, with reasonable predictability. This is mundane stuff, Immunology 101 so to speak.

Moreover, just because one can't detect antibodies, doesn't mean there isn't sustained immunity. T-cell immunity (as mentioned above) is very important as well, and typically more durable. There have been several studies showing a robust, sustained T-cell response in asymptomatic and/or mild COVID infected patients; but this is measured in research settings and not commercially done.

That being said, it is useful to measure levels of antibody/T-cell response to derive meaningful immunity data (capable of stopping progression to a severe infection, capable of spreading infection, etc.). Thus, quantification of these parameters is of course done during the vaccine trials.

The only late trial stage vaccine candidate that I am aware of that had relatively poor immunogenicity in earlier studies is Sinovac's CoronaVac- this elicited only 1/3 of the antibody response as control (COVID infected patients). Such a poor response would generally prevent progression to a larger Phase 3 study without material changes to enhance this response. But, Sinovac is charging ahead without changes; indeed, as reported elsewhere, this and other vaccines have already been give to 100K's of people within China.

By contrast, GSK/Sanofi's vaccine candidate also had a relatively poor neutralizing antibody response in patients (>60yrs age); they decided to reformulate their vaccine and do another study (Phase2b) 'before' progressing to a Phase 3 study.
Last edited by dhyana on 27 Dec 2020 10:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 27 Dec 2020 10:27

It seems like India may be the first country to approve Oxford/SII vaccine. Read a tweet that SII/Oxford have submitted additional data requested by GoI (DGCI) & approval for emergency usage may be granted probably in the next 2 weeks. Hopefully, by April, at least vaccines will start reaching common man...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vimal » 27 Dec 2020 11:27

While researching vaccines i stumbled upon this link that has info about all the vaccines under development/trial in India.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/cov ... 14614.html

Really surprised by this:

Sputnik V - India has purchased 100 million doses of Russia's Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine candidate. Sputnik V vaccine has been developed by the Gamaleya National Research Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF). Dr Reddy's Laboratories and Sputnik LLC are jointly conducting the human trials in India.



Here are the latest updates on Covid-19 vaccines in India:

1) Pfizer - The Indian arm of the US drug firm had sought an emergency use approval for its Covid-19 vaccine from the central drug regulator days back after the firm secured such clearance in Britain and Bahrain. The drug giant, in its application, had sought permission to import the vaccine for sale and distribution in India.

Efficacy rate: 95%

2) SII's Covishield - Pune-based Serum Institute of India has already applied for emergency use authorisation of the vaccine, dubbed as Covishield, in India. SII chief Adar Poonawalla recently said that the company plans to make up to 10 crore doses of Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine each month, starting next year.

Efficacy rate: 60-70%

3) Bharat Biotech's Covaxin - The Hyderabad-based company, earlier this month, sought emergency use approval from the Drug Controller General of India for its indigenously made Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin. Covaxin is being indigenously developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research.

Efficacy rate: 60%

4) India's first mRNA vaccine - A vaccine being developed by the Gennova firm in Pune has become India's first homemade mRNA candidate to get permission for the human clinical trial. "HGCO19 (the official name of the vaccine) is stable at 2-8 degrees Celsius for two months," the government had said in an official statement.

5) Zydus Cadila - Zydus Cadila had, earlier this month, received approval from the DCGI to start phase 3 clinical trials with its biological therapy PegiHep in Covid-19 patients. The company had completed phase 2 clinical trials with PegiHep last month.

6) Sputnik V - India has purchased 100 million doses of Russia's Sputnik V Covid-19 vaccine candidate. Sputnik V vaccine has been developed by the Gamaleya National Research Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF). Dr Reddy's Laboratories and Sputnik LLC are jointly conducting the human trials in India.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 27 Dec 2020 11:37

Have not been following/posting in this thread for some time. (Was disappointed with trolling and lack of interest/understanding in scientific level of understanding here). This may have been already posted here.. but it is a breaking News item: and a good news.

New data from Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine shows 95% efficacy & is “100% effective” in preventing severe illness per AZ CEO.

That’s on par w/ Moderna & Pfizer.

No official data yet, but UK and India are said to likely approve in days/weeks (per some sources - one news paper is reporting that UK *rollout* may be as early as Jan 4 )

This is important as: as it is cheap, easy to handle vaccine at 95% is huge!! (Interesting story how they improved it's it's efficacy - Roughly speaking - They were lucky - lower dose done in trial by mistake actually improved the results and then they ran trials with lower second dose - It was luck.).

Compared to others.
8-10x cheaper than Moderna/Pfizer
Does **NOT** require any freezing! Only simple refrigeration.
Is the #1 vaccine on order worldwide.

Image

Almost 3 billion doses—40% of the entire world of this one vaccine is ordered. Everyone is counting on this.
(India - 1 Billion doses, US 300 Million doses)
Image


There will be lot of coverage in main-stream media.

---
Recall the original Phase 3 trial last month was still quite good. 70% overall (averaging across all doses), or 90% in the half-full dose. Oxford was the FIRST to publish formally in a journal! Moderna & Pfizer didn’t publish until later even though they were approved first.

(Meanwhile - many members of my family have gotten the vaccine so things are moving, little slowly but moving in US)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vimal » 27 Dec 2020 11:54

^^ What is the source of this news?

If true then this is stunning news. With simple refrigeration requirements it seems a winner. If India can produce and export the vaccine it would be a huge market win as well as prestige. 3 billion doses is massive order, imagine the profit margin on that. Of course Chinis must've already stolen the IP from their UK based assets.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 27 Dec 2020 12:50

While good news, I hope the other vaccine trials in India are sped up. Any vaccination effort has the potential to derail those trials.

AIIMS invites volunteers for Bharat Biotech's Covaxin Phase 3 trials

"We wanted 1,500-2,000 participants but so far, we have been able to recruit only around 200 participants. People are unwilling to participate in the exercise thinking why take part in a trial when a vaccine would be available soon for everyone,"

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Raja » 27 Dec 2020 16:34

Amber G. wrote:Have not been following/posting in this thread for some time. (Was disappointed with trolling and lack of interest/understanding in scientific level of understanding here). This may have been already posted here.. but it is a breaking News item: and a good news.

New data from Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine shows 95% efficacy & is “100% effective” in preventing severe illness per AZ CEO.



What is your source? Are you referring to the fact that a subset of their previous study showed 95% efficacy when a lower dose was given by accident? Or do you have something new? Btw, as far as I know, trials in India are based on the higher dosage regiment (with 65% efficacy) and there are no current plans to approve it with the lower dosage. So, if the 60-70% efficacy remains for the higher dosage then the vaccination plan in India will be significantly worse than Western nations. I am hoping that Janssen vaccine turns out to be successful.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 27 Dec 2020 17:14

Oxford Vaccine Will "Protect 95 Per Cent", Says AstraZeneca CEO: Report

New Delhi: The Oxford coronavirus vaccine will "protect 95 per cent of patients" and is "as effective as the Pfizer and Moderna" alternatives, Pascal Soriot, chief executive of AstraZeneca, told British daily The Sunday Times, adding scientists had figured out a "winning formula to get efficacy up there with everybody else".

However, AstraZeneca, a British-Swedish pharma giant, has yet to release data confirming these claims. Interim results of Phase III trials released last month showed a 70 per cent efficacy rate as the average of two dosing regimens. One of these regimens - a half dose followed by a full dose - showed 90 per cent efficacy, while Pfizer's data showed 95 per cent and Moderna's 94.5 per cent.

Mr Soriot also said the vaccine, which is likely to be cleared this week by the British health regulator, "should be" effective against an aggressive mutant strain of the virus first detected in London and southeast England in September.

The Oxford vaccine, which will be mass-produced in India by the Pune-based Serum Institute, is one of three drugs being considered for emergency use authorisation by the Indian government. The other two are those developed by Pfizer (which has already been rolled out in the United Kingdom, the United States and several European countries) and Bharat Biotech's Covaxin.

On Saturday sources told news agency PTI that the DCGI (Drug Controller General of India) was waiting for the British drug regulator to clear the Oxford vaccine.

Given that Pfizer is yet to present its data and Bharat Biotech hasn't yet completed Phase III trials, it is likely, the sources added, that the AstraZeneca-Oxford drug will become the first Covid vaccine to be used in India. It also scores over its rivals on at least two critical counts - ease of storage and cost.

While the Pfizer vaccine needs to be stored at minus 70 degrees Celsius and the Moderna variant at minus 20 degrees Celsius, the Oxford vaccine can be kept at normal fridge temperatures - two to eight degrees Celsius. The difference could be crucial for a country as large as India.

The Oxford vaccine is also expected to be cheaper than the Pfizer and Moderna options; it is likely to cost $2.5 per dose to Pfizer's $20 and Moderna's $25. All three require a two-dose regimen.

The Indian government has begun prepping for a nationwide rollout of whichever vaccine will be cleared first. Over Monday and Tuesday four states - Punjab, Gujarat, Assam and Andhra Pradesh - will take part in test runs of the vaccination process.

India expects to begin vaccination "in any week" of January, Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan has said. As of Sunday morning the country reported 2.79 lakh active Covid cases. The total number of cases since the pandemic began in December last year is around 1.02 crore.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 27 Dec 2020 21:57

ldev wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:I am getting concerned, as this pandemic rages and decimates populations of white people and also Indians (only less so), that this coronavirus may be used as a template for a biological or economic weapon.

It seems Chinese populations may have an innate resistance if not immunity to this virus. I believe it urgent that westerners and Indians study this virus intensively to isolate its vulnerabilities and stockpile defensive means. An obvious target for genetic engineering of the ACEII binding protein is to render it less immunogenic to current vaccination defenses whilst retaining its cell infectivity. I believe these avenues of study will not have escaped the Chinese.

This will have struck governments around the globe as self evident. We do not want to have to go through this every three years.


The data regarding infection rates among Chinese and other East Asians living in the West is not known, at least not publicly known. The generally accepted notion is that cases and deaths in China and East Asia are low because the populations are adhering to safety norms which are flouted in other countries i.e. wearing masks, social distancing etc. But if the data reveals that Chinese and East Asians living in the West have nil/low susceptibility to getting the virus vs the rest of the population in these countries, then I think a strong argument emerges that this virus was engineered by China. While this information is not in the public domain AFAIK, docs on the forum with an ear to the ground may be able to pick up some information.


Again, not very meaningful, but here's the latest if you're interested:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20233155v1

There is growing recognition of the burden of COVID-19 among Asian Americans, but data on outcomes among Asian ethnic subgroups remain extremely limited. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 85,328 patients tested for COVID-19 at New York City’s public hospital system between March 1 and May 31, 2020, to describe characteristics and COVID-19 outcomes of Asian ethnic subgroups compared to Asians overall and other racial/ethnic groups. South Asians had the highest rates of positivity and hospitalization among Asians, second only to Hispanics for positivity and Blacks for hospitalization. Chinese patients had the highest mortality rate of all groups and were nearly 1.5 times more likely to die than Whites. The high burden of COVID-19 among South Asian and Chinese Americans underscores the urgent needs for improved data collection and reporting as well as public health program and policy efforts to mitigate the disparate impact of COVID-19 among these communities.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 27 Dec 2020 23:01

Interesting but one obvious caveat. This is for the public health system.

Chinese and Indians who use the public health system in the US would be considered as non representative of these populations residing in the US.

At least the Indians would be I believe.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 28 Dec 2020 00:36

Few comments:

- The "breaking news" I posted a few posts ago, is now being covered by major mainstream news papers all over the world. More details can be found there or in technical journals which are available.
- EUA (in US, UK and India) are expected to soon approved per *all* the reports. (may be within days).
- For those who understand or have interest in scientific issues please continue reading.
- Some are asking why/how the new Oxford/AZ result is different — they retested the vaccine from the previous half-dose/full-dose regimen that had the earlier 90% efficacy - this 90% efficacy itself was average of earlier reported 65% (or 70% in some cases) of "full dose" results.

(To be clear, it wasn’t a safety issue before. Turned out it was dumb luck -- Hence retest).

- There are some good articles detailing the issue (one good one is NY Times article of last month or so) But basically dosing error led to Oxford AZ vaccine 90% efficacy . There was an error in the dosage was made by a contractor when they came to know and ignored those from data the efficacy was around 65% - but if they used all the data (including dosing "error" data results were better - average came out to be around 70-90%). Once discovered, regulators were immediately notified & signed off on the plan to continue testing in different (lower) doses.
- The additional trials (using the new "lower" doses) produced this 95% efficacy. - This is just published.


- To be clear, [b]it’s **NOT** a safety issue that is making Oxford repeat the low dose trial. It’s because to satisfy critics and “prove it’s really 90%” trial. When study concluded results were better than there best thought[/b]. In short, they wanted to rerun to make sure that the 90% result was NOT post-hoc dredging for strong funding, it was pre-registered -- and the results are quite good.

- The Oxford/AZ vaccine is not an mRNA vaccine like Moderna or Pfizer/BioNTech’s. Oxford relies on a neutralized adenovirus that is harmless, but “hitchhike” tagged with the spike genes o SARSCoV2 coronavirus to train our cells to the spike protein.
Image

(For more details - see any reputable source - one good article is https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/amp/Artic ... 19-vaccine)

_ From what I understand and read (per Oxford scientists :) ) - on the adenovirus vector approach: ChAdOx1 was chosen as the most suitable vaccine technology for a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine as it has been shown to generate a strong immune response from one dose in other vaccines.
- it has been genetically changed so that it is impossible for it to grow in humans. This also makes it safer to give to children, the elderly and anyone with a pre-existing condition such as diabetes. Chimpanzee adenoviral vectors, BTW, are a very well-studied vaccine type.

It seems that this is, as far as effectiveness is concerned, on par with Pfizer and Moderna vaccines - good part is it is much cheaper. India has capacity to produce and distribute in a large quantities and it does not require deep cold storage.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 28 Dec 2020 01:11

AmberG, have you seen any papers on the reason why "full dose" is less effective than "half dose"? There is something in there that can give us more clues to the viral mechanism, perhaps.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 28 Dec 2020 07:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 28 Dec 2020 02:08

Vayutuvan wrote:AmberG, have you seen any papers on the reason why "full dose" is less effective than "half dose"? There is something in there that can give more clues to the viral mechanism, perhaps.

Yes. Some experts I know have some understanding but many are puzzled. As said before, this was discovered by accidental error.
Here is one paper from Nature, about a month ago, you may enjoy reading. (Hope it is available without subscription).
It may answer some of your questions - and there are some theories how/why it worked .. but many things we are still learning..and it will certainly lead us to better understanding.

Why Oxford’s positive COVID vaccine results are puzzling scientists
- Preliminary data suggest that the immunization was more effective in trial participants who received a lower dose

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby dhyana » 28 Dec 2020 02:22

Not sure if there have been any further publications, aside from initial Lancet article by the Oxford study group:
Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK

Certainly, further analysis of the data is ongoing, since this was just the first interim analysis. And there will assuredly be more infections over time- hence, more medium/long-term trends to sort out.

As AmberG mentioned, the the 90% efficacy result came from an error in dosing. The problem is that was found in a small subset of participants trialed (just over 2700 received the half-dose primer, out of nearly 24K over the four studies), which is not properly powered to give definitive clinical efficacy results. That result is unlikely for the FDA, EU's EMA or the UK's MHRA to consider in their approval process.

Oxford/AstraZeneca will likely have to enroll at least one additional study (with many more participants randomized into the half-dose primer group) to prove 90% efficacy protection against getting any COVID. What they can claim now, however, is at least 62% efficacy against getting any COVID disease (statistically relevant from the full dose primer regimen)- and this alone does meet FDA/EMA's published threshold for emergency use authorization (EUA). More importantly, it appears that no one who received the full two dose regimen developed severe COVID- perhaps that was what the AstraZeneca CEO was discussing? I'm not sure on that. I am sure that AstraZeneca/Oxford's messaging since the beginning has seemed a little too 'forward' and that a bit more circumspection may have been useful.

Then again, even 62% is generally better than any influenza vaccine. And 100% prevention of severe disease is the key finding. The whole business about lockdowns/social restrictions, etc., is about preventing morbidity/mortality. If enough people get a vaccine that provides near-complete protection against severe disease, then the lockdowns/restrictions would end. Because then COVID becomes 'just like the flu'- endemic, but not hugely disruptive.

The verbal pontification from AstraZeneca needs to stop. The regulators have closely scrutinized these results for longer than they might otherwise for EUA, likely because of this public posturing (due to politics, need for instillation of public confidence in the process, and the mere fact that there was an error in the study- which always causes a regulator to train their sights, etc.).

All that being said, imho, the regulators need to emergency authorize this vaccine yesterday. And we can finally get down to the business of mass immunizations in India.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 28 Dec 2020 02:47

They use the same tried-and-true process as the Chinese vaccine that has a 90+% efficacy, have to think that it's efficacy is ultimately fairly close to that. In any case, prevention of severe disease is what's really important. Mild COVID is at worst like a typical case of the flu.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 28 Dec 2020 03:08

The lower efficacy of the full dose 2 step vaccine may certainly be accounted for by plausible (not proven) models of immune anergy. Example EDTA may act on Ca+2 channels at the higher doses.

There is much serendipity in research, but it is not confidence inspiring in either Astrazeneca or the University of Oxford.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 28 Dec 2020 03:24

^ The Oxford-AZ higher efficiency (1/2 dose + full dose) regimen was not tested in adults 55 and older. GSK has a similar issue with effectiveness in older adults and are adjusting the vaccine prior to re-running trials. I don't get why the Oxford vaccine is not being rolled out for younger adults.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vimal » 28 Dec 2020 07:31

https://www.timesofisrael.com/astrazene ... -covid-19/

More info on az COVID vaccine.
LONDON — The COVID-19 vaccine developed by the British drug group AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford has achieved a “winning formula” for efficacy, the company’s chief executive said on Sunday.

The vaccine, currently being evaluated by Britain’s independent medicines regulator, provides “100 percent protection” against severe COVID disease requiring hospitalization, Pascal Soriot said in an interview with the Sunday Times newspaper.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 28 Dec 2020 07:34

I will post a link to a paper "Is Stastistics Too Difficult?" by Hempel in the Mathematics thread. I am halfway through the 20+page paper. It touches upon (at 30K feet philosophical level) as to why outliers are as important as data that is within a certain distance from the mean. Hempel is a Statistician as well as a Field Ornithologist.

@sanjaykumar, I hope you are not saying that serendipitous results - if and when followed through - don't inspire confidence.

We are still in the early stages, IMHO.


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 28 Dec 2020 07:38

sanjaykumar wrote: EDTA may act on Ca+2 channels at the higher doses.


is it something related to channel saturation leading to secondary effects?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 28 Dec 2020 07:43

dhyana wrote:Then again, even 62% is generally better than any influenza vaccine.


Influenza vaccines have ~35% efficacy while Mumps vaccines are around 60%, as per my GK. The cognoscenti here might be able to tell us how good 62% efficacy is compared to those two vaccines which are quite successful, if I may add.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 28 Dec 2020 07:47

@sanjaykumar, I hope you are not saying that serendipitous results - if and when followed through - don't inspire confidence.



Not at all. As a small example, I stumbled upon carbohydrate binding proteins as regulators of enzyme activity many years ago whilst doing work on something else, and published in an obscure journal. Lectin like proteins are now established in immune regulation function.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 28 Dec 2020 07:52

Vayutuvan wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote: EDTA may act on Ca+2 channels at the higher doses.


is it something related to channel saturation leading to secondary effects?




Ca+2 influx is important/critical to many cellular functions include clonal expansion/immune activation, EDTA is a chelator of divalent metal cations, the local availability of Ca+2 may be restricted at a certain local EDTA concentration. EDTA is used in vaccine formulations.


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