Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[vera_k]

Why Oxford vaccine

Single-dose efficacy was pegged at 52.7%, Britain said on Wednesday

Couldn't find more about this number, but as long as it keeps people out of the hospital, it would be progress.

[saip]

Previous Shingles vaccine had an efficy of 50% (that is the minium for FDA approval). Me and my wife took it. My wife got shingles and suffered a lot. Almost 6 months. 3 months on disability leave and 3 months I drove her to work. So far I am OK. The newer vaccine is supposed to be 90% effective. I am planning to take it.
So, the 52.7% is OK. If that is readily available, I will take it if the other vaccines are not readily available.

[Amber G.]

As I was expecting --India likely to approve Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine today
___
In US vaccine distribution has been incredibly slow and chaotic. Israel is planning to distribute to all elders and hope to reduce deaths by 90% in next few months. Canada is likely to get massive distribution of the first dose (like UK) .. again to bring down spread fast.

I have seen some interesting mathematical modeling about the vaccine distribution especially for India (some issues in India is different - like grandparents living with extended families - which ought to be taken in account. India's situation at present, is still better than US or some other nations and hopefully by end of February - as our models were predicting - things will improve. Protests/ Bihar elections and UK strain have been complicating .. but hope things will, relatively speaking, may not go out of control.

[vera_k]

US vaccine distribution is controlled at the state level. Florida is prioritizing elderly people over everyone else, some states are going by CDC guidelines, other states are inventing it as it goes along. Reports say millions of vaccine doses are in warehouses in the states waiting to be injected. At this point, might be better to distribute the surplus doses similar to how the yearly flu vaccines are brought to market.

Feds seem to be on top of it -
Latest updates

The Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday warned the governors of New York and Delaware that failing to let pharmacy technicians administer the Covid-19 vaccine could hinder efforts to inoculate the public and violate federal law.

[mappunni]

Previous Shingles vaccine had an efficy of 50% (that is the minium for FDA approval). Me and my wife took it. My wife got shingles and suffered a lot. Almost 6 months. 3 months on disability leave and 3 months I drove her to work. So far I am OK. The newer vaccine is supposed to be 90% effective. I am planning to take it.
So, the 52.7% is OK. If that is readily available, I will take it if the other vaccines are not readily available.

Got the newer Shingles vaccine today and my Primary care physician said it is very effective. In Texas, they have different sets of guidelines on who gets the Chinese virus vaccine. I was told being diabetic, I should be able to get one of the Chinese virus vaccines in the next couple of weeks.

[Vayutuvan]

this thread is becoming more of a US "vaccine" thread - shingles, really? State to state differences in "guidelines"?!!!

where is the "resource" in these posts, dear sires?!

[Amber G.]

^^^ Per our doctors, during this pandemic it is even more important to make sure that one takes other vaccines (especially Flu, Pneumonia, Shingles etc) for obvious reasons.
(In fact there is some evidence per peer reviewed journals - indicating that people who have taken Mums vaccines are less likely to get serious illness due to covid. ( There is a big trial going on -- and some results may have impact on further vaccination research) . (Many older Americans - born before 1960's do not have Mums (or MMR) vaccines)
(There have been lot of discussion about BCG vaccines too - some think it has some impact --- Ido have BCG but very few people do).

[Manas]

As I was expecting --India likely to approve Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine today
___
In US vaccine distribution has been incredibly slow and chaotic. Israel is planning to distribute to all elders and hope to reduce deaths by 90% in next few months. Canada is likely to get massive distribution of the first dose (like UK) .. again to bring down spread fast.

The U.S. is doing fairly well considering the logistical challenges related to Pfizer Vaccine's extremely cold temperature needs, Christmas and New Year's holidays etc. Here are links to 2 vaccine distribution trackers - one from Bloomberg and one from CDC that have data for both "vaccines distributed" vs "people vaccinated".

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

The CDC numbers for people vaccinated are slightly higher (close to 3M) compared to Bloombergs. Whereas Bloombergs 15M vaccines alloted is higher than CDCs vaccines "distributed". Ignore the numbers as Bloomberg seems to update numbers every few hours and they have changed in the last 3-4 hours. There seems to be a fine nuance between "alloted" vs "distributed" that may explain the difference. Regardless, for a state like CA that has 1M+ vaccines delivered only 300K seems to have been vaccinated. As Trump clearly called out the states need to get on with large scale vaccination drives. These vaccines dont do any good at state storage sites. The early phase should be easy i.e. high concentration of health care workers in hospital settings & long term/senior care facilities (contracted by the Feds through CVS and Walgreens to vaccinate). It is logisticaly easier to vaccinate 100's in a day at such facilites. It will get difficult once they are rolled out larger populations (hopefully through PCP, city/county facilities). According to Operation Warp Speed officials there is apparently a 48 - 72 hour time lag between actual administration vs states reporting data to CDC. Also CDC posts data by 9am EST on Mon/Wed/Fri. So it is quite possible that closer to 5M people may have been vaccinated as opposed to the closer to 3M indicated per today's CDC update.


Mr. Biden as usual took pot shots at Trump for "failure" and things "going slow". This is nothing other than cheap politics. Except for the first 3 weeks of CDC test screw ups in February and Trump's inconsistent mask wearing, messaging - the overall handling of the Pandemic is as good as it could have been considering a large country, large states, federal structure with lots of autonomy for governors to enact policies that they deem is best for their state. This includes getting PPEs, therapeutics, vaccines through operation warp speed. Operation Warp Speed has been far more successful compared to Obama/Biden's admin's handling of H1N1 (which was far less lethal but still 12K perished and 69M infected in the U.S.) and the handling of Ebola (it took 6 months for Obama to get U.S. help for Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea that were poor and desperate for U.S. help, unlike China which stonewalled the U.S./World and the WHO). Ebola is very difficult to transmit compared to COVID or the regular flu ! Despite that we had one visitor from Liberia that died in Dallas and also infected a nurse and one other person who fell ill with Ebola. It is disappointing to see that this pandemic has been so badly politicized in the U.S. and even smart people seem unable to objectively review facts and come to come to conclusions based on hard data and all the variables.


As regards the guidelines - some states are ignoring the CDC guidelines and for ex are prioritizing prisoners, recovering drug addicts instead of 70+ senior citizens and other higher risk population. From the above 2 links for an objective observer like me - getting 15M doses distributed between Dec 15th/Dec 31st (through the holidays) and getting 5M+ people vaccinated is a monumental accomplishment. This will only pick up pace in Jan/Feb.

BTW, The U.K. seems to be following a smarter strategy i.e. to ensure the first dose is prioritized/used across a broader population and delay the 2nd dose till 10-12 weeks as opposed to the 3-4 weeks recommended per clinical trial protocols. Getting some degree of immunity in a larger % of population is better than getting 100%/high immunity in a very narrow population segment.

I also expect that India will handle the vaccination drive pretty well. The Modi govt has proven that they can execute massive, complex projects/undertakings spectacularly well (bank accounts, toilers, tap water, getting VAT approved across all states to roll out/fine tuning etc).

[Primus]

Previous Shingles vaccine had an efficy of 50% (that is the minium for FDA approval). Me and my wife took it. My wife got shingles and suffered a lot. Almost 6 months. 3 months on disability leave and 3 months I drove her to work. So far I am OK. The newer vaccine is supposed to be 90% effective. I am planning to take it.
So, the 52.7% is OK. If that is readily available, I will take it if the other vaccines are not readily available.

Got the newer Shingles vaccine today and my Primary care physician said it is very effective. In Texas, they have different sets of guidelines on who gets the Chinese virus vaccine. I was told being diabetic, I should be able to get one of the Chinese virus vaccines in the next couple of weeks.

Please make sure you wait at least four-six weeks between the Shingles shot and the COVID vaccine, you don't want to confuse your immune system. Plus the Shingles IIRC is a live virus vaccine so you don't want to mix up two virus particles in your system.

[chola]

The second shot is critical.

https://www.businessinsider.com/emergency-room-doctor-positive-covid-19-after-pfizer-vaccine-2020-12

An emergency-room doctor tested positive for coronavirus 9 days after getting vaccinated. That's not a sign the vaccine didn't work.

Josh Mugele worked the night shift on Christmas. Though he had been tending to coronavirus patients since the start of the pandemic, his Georgia hospital was stretched to capacity like never before. There was one small comfort, though: Mugele had received the first dose of Pfizer and BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine on December 20.

"I had three shifts in a row right up to the vaccine date," Mugele, an emergency-room doctor at Northeast Georgia Medical Center in Gainesville, Georgia, told Business Insider. "I was just really nervous I was going to get exposed before that. I honestly felt really a sense of relief when, on the 20th, I actually was able to get the vaccine, and I thought I'd kind of crossed the finish line."

Mugele always knew there was a chance of getting sick after his first dose.

Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine is given as two injections 21 days apart. The two-dose regimen was found to be 95% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19, but a single dose provided a lot less protection. That's why it's imperative for vaccine recipients to return for a second shot.

[vera_k]

this thread is becoming more of a US "vaccine" thread - shingles, really? State to state differences in "guidelines"?!!!

where is the "resource" in these posts, dear sires?!

IMO, one lesson from the US vaccine rollout is that it's best to rely on established vaccination procedures to get the vaccinations done. Trying to stand up a special purpose system is not going to be smooth sailing.

[Mort Walker]

I put some links from the Ayush Ministry and no one commented. Further, my own relatives in India got Covid and followed the ministry’s guidelines and health improved. What keeps India’s infection rates and mortality rates so low compared to the west? I don’t think we discussed this by people who have lots of knowledge here in medicine and biological science.

[mappunni]

Got the newer Shingles vaccine today and my Primary care physician said it is very effective. In Texas, they have different sets of guidelines on who gets the Chinese virus vaccine. I was told being diabetic, I should be able to get one of the Chinese virus vaccines in the next couple of weeks.

Please make sure you wait at least four-six weeks between the Shingles shot and the COVID vaccine, you don't want to confuse your immune system. Plus the Shingles IIRC is a live virus vaccine so you don't want to mix up two virus particles in your system.

Primus Ji, Thanks for the valuable information. I was supposed to get my Chinese Virus shot in 2nd and I did reach out to my PCP after seeing your post and he concurred with your suggestion.

[vijayk]

As I was expecting --India likely to approve Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine today
___
In US vaccine distribution has been incredibly slow and chaotic. Israel is planning to distribute to all elders and hope to reduce deaths by 90% in next few months. Canada is likely to get massive distribution of the first dose (like UK) .. again to bring down spread fast.

I have seen some interesting mathematical modeling about the vaccine distribution especially for India (some issues in India is different - like grandparents living with extended families - which ought to be taken in account. India's situation at present, is still better than US or some other nations and hopefully by end of February - as our models were predicting - things will improve. Protests/ Bihar elections and UK strain have been complicating .. but hope things will, relatively speaking, may not go out of control.

They did not approve today. I was hoping they would announce on Dec 31.

I also read that Poonawala from Serum saying Govt. did not purchase any vaccines till now. Is that true?

[vera_k]

They are not meeting until Jan 1, so an approval wasn't expected on Dec 31.

[DavidD]

The second shot is critical.

https://www.businessinsider.com/emergency-room-doctor-positive-covid-19-after-pfizer-vaccine-2020-12

An emergency-room doctor tested positive for coronavirus 9 days after getting vaccinated. That's not a sign the vaccine didn't work.

Josh Mugele worked the night shift on Christmas. Though he had been tending to coronavirus patients since the start of the pandemic, his Georgia hospital was stretched to capacity like never before. There was one small comfort, though: Mugele had received the first dose of Pfizer and BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine on December 20.

"I had three shifts in a row right up to the vaccine date," Mugele, an emergency-room doctor at Northeast Georgia Medical Center in Gainesville, Georgia, told Business Insider. "I was just really nervous I was going to get exposed before that. I honestly felt really a sense of relief when, on the 20th, I actually was able to get the vaccine, and I thought I'd kind of crossed the finish line."

Mugele always knew there was a chance of getting sick after his first dose.

Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine is given as two injections 21 days apart. The two-dose regimen was found to be 95% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19, but a single dose provided a lot less protection. That's why it's imperative for vaccine recipients to return for a second shot.

Possibly, but that's the wrong take from this news. Vaccines don't work immediately, it's possible that one shot is sufficient but it needs a couple weeks to fully kick in. I think the influenza vaccine reaches full efficacy about a month out.

[DavidD]

As I was expecting --India likely to approve Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine today
___
In US vaccine distribution has been incredibly slow and chaotic. Israel is planning to distribute to all elders and hope to reduce deaths by 90% in next few months. Canada is likely to get massive distribution of the first dose (like UK) .. again to bring down spread fast.

The U.S. is doing fairly well considering the logistical challenges related to Pfizer Vaccine's extremely cold temperature needs, Christmas and New Year's holidays etc. Here are links to 2 vaccine distribution trackers - one from Bloomberg and one from CDC that have data for both "vaccines distributed" vs "people vaccinated".

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

The CDC numbers for people vaccinated are slightly higher (close to 3M) compared to Bloombergs. Whereas Bloombergs 15M vaccines alloted is higher than CDCs vaccines "distributed". Ignore the numbers as Bloomberg seems to update numbers every few hours and they have changed in the last 3-4 hours. There seems to be a fine nuance between "alloted" vs "distributed" that may explain the difference. Regardless, for a state like CA that has 1M+ vaccines delivered only 300K seems to have been vaccinated. As Trump clearly called out the states need to get on with large scale vaccination drives. These vaccines dont do any good at state storage sites. The early phase should be easy i.e. high concentration of health care workers in hospital settings & long term/senior care facilities (contracted by the Feds through CVS and Walgreens to vaccinate). It is logisticaly easier to vaccinate 100's in a day at such facilites. It will get difficult once they are rolled out larger populations (hopefully through PCP, city/county facilities). According to Operation Warp Speed officials there is apparently a 48 - 72 hour time lag between actual administration vs states reporting data to CDC. Also CDC posts data by 9am EST on Mon/Wed/Fri. So it is quite possible that closer to 5M people may have been vaccinated as opposed to the closer to 3M indicated per today's CDC update.

While it's possible to vaccinate a lot of people in a hospital each day, it's impractical. Per study results, many people develop fevers and become rather ill for a couple days after the 2nd shot. If you vaccinate everyone at the same time, you'll have no one to staff the hospital for a few days after the 2nd shot. This is why many hospitals are intentionally staggering the vaccination of their staff.

[Amber G.]

Out today: two academic publications that formally test whether the new B.1.1.7 variant is more transmissible. Both conclude yes, about 50% more.

[nam]

There are now 2 numbers on the stocks from SII. One where it's CEO said they have 50M doses ready. In another news, their R&D head says they have 75M ready and it will be 100M in Jan 1st or 2nd week.

SII better start belting out doses. Except the US & Europeans, no one will be getting these on time, if our Pharma guys don't step up.

[IndraD]

Britain
With the ICUs & wards overwhelmed by covid, UK compelled to delay second dose of Pfizer by 3 months in those who already have received first jab. This will free up more doses for people who can end up in severe covid and might need hospital/ICU later on. https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... cond-doses


However Pfizer has warned it has not tested its vaccines to be scheduled 3 months apart and can't guarantee protection with first dose https://www.ft.com/content/d97c72c5-ed2 ... c10b21f007

[IndraD]

One jab of Pfizer gives 52% protection/immunity
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/heal ... r.amp.html

[srai]

...

BTW, The U.K. seems to be following a smarter strategy i.e. to ensure the first dose is prioritized/used across a broader population and delay the 2nd dose till 10-12 weeks as opposed to the 3-4 weeks recommended per clinical trial protocols. Getting some degree of immunity in a larger % of population is better than getting 100%/high immunity in a very narrow population segment.

...

It hasn’t been tested in that manner. How effective will that delayed 2nd dose strategy be? Good luck to the UK.

[DavidD]

One jab of Pfizer gives 52% protection/immunity
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/heal ... r.amp.html

Again, that's an incorrect interpretation of the data. It takes time to for the vaccine to work, so since there is no comparison study between one vs two doses, there is no proof that the efficacy wouldn't eventually rise to 90+% with just one shot.

If you look at the data closer, you'll see that almost all who caught COVID after one shot but before the 2nd shot occurred within the first ~10 days of receiving the first shot. After ~10 days, infections occurred at about the same rate as after the 2nd shot (21 days).

Here's presentation slides at the FDA meeting re: the Pfizer vaccine. Check out page 48 for what I'm referring to.

https://www.fda.gov/media/144325/download

[vijayk]

WIONews

Expert panel set up by Drug Controller General of India has recommended use of #Covishield (AstraZeneca) vaccine for #coronavirus vaccination in India


https://www.wionews.com/india-news/indi ... 353860/amp

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/chandrarsrikant/sta ... 40256?s=20
Oxford -Astra Zeneca vaccine approved for emergency use in India! Rollout will start next week. Serum has already made 50 mn doses of this.

[IndraD]

India likely to follow UK suit
and space out second dose of Oxford vaccine at 12 weeks to cover as many as possible to begin with

[nam]

On the SII doses, apparently they will have 100M ready in another 2 weeks.

50% available to India. Remaining goes to UN and other countries. So far 3 countries UK,Argentina,India have approved the Ox-AZ vaccine.

If I am not wrong, Argentina is producing themselves. So the stock has go to either India or UK, as SII cannot sell it anyone else anyways.

With UK & India approving it, I expect Asian countries to approve it quickly.

[nam]

India likely to follow UK suit
and space out second dose of Oxford vaccine at 12 weeks to cover as many as possible to begin with

It is all about preventing hospitalization. During the trials, those vaccinated with 1 dose, none of them were hospitalized, despite being infected.

With 1 dose, it keep the severity of the infection down. That is good enough to delay the 2nd dose.

[vera_k]

Are there no allergic reactions being reported for the Astra Zeneca vaccine?

That characteristic might make it the preferred option for immunizations carried out outside a doctor's office.

[vimal]

Kim Iversen talks about India's handling of Covid and how it was different and better than how US managed it.
Forward the video to 26 minute mark.

[vijayk]

Awesome analysis. Now a days hard to find any PRESSTITUTE who is not propaganda wing of Right or left

[Mort Walker]

Can someone explain the dry run test of vaccine administration in various cities across India? How it works?

Also, the expert panel has approved AZ Covishield today.
https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... s-7128929/

[nam]

The lady has been reading too much english news report.

The virus spreads in closed crowded placed. Which are those: Transport, workplace, homes, wedding place AND school/colleges.

The major difference b/w India and others: School & Colleges have been closed. They are the biggest gathering of humans(and highly concentrated) in a closed place for the longest duration in a day.

The second wave in Europe & UK was heavily concentrated on Secondary & College students. While students in India were at home!

[vimal]

The lady has been reading too much english news report.

The virus spreads in closed crowded placed. Which are those: Transport, workplace, homes, wedding place AND school/colleges.

The major difference b/w India and others: School & Colleges have been closed. They are the biggest gathering of humans(and highly concentrated) in a closed place for the longest duration in a day.

The second wave in Europe & UK was heavily concentrated on Secondary & College students. While students in India were at home!

She explains all that in the video, if you cared to sit though it.

[vijayk]

The lady has been reading too much english news report.

The virus spreads in closed crowded placed. Which are those: Transport, workplace, homes, wedding place AND school/colleges.

The major difference b/w India and others: School & Colleges have been closed. They are the biggest gathering of humans(and highly concentrated) in a closed place for the longest duration in a day.

The second wave in Europe & UK was heavily concentrated on Secondary & College students. While students in India were at home!

She has been extra-ordinarily smart, detailed and fact-driven without racist attitude of scums of NYT/Wapo and rabid hindu-phobic NaziPublicRadio. What a contrast! There is some hope in the world of journalism. It is not all dead

[IndraD]

The lady has been reading too much english news report.

The virus spreads in closed crowded placed. Which are those: Transport, workplace, homes, wedding place AND school/colleges.

The major difference b/w India and others: School & Colleges have been closed. They are the biggest gathering of humans(and highly concentrated) in a closed place for the longest duration in a day.

The second wave in Europe & UK was heavily concentrated on Secondary & College students. While students in India were at home!

not that easy to explain
place i come from is deep in Hindi heartland. People are moving around doing businesses without mask or precautions and still not many cases, not many deaths or serious hospitalisation either with respiratory failure. there are multiple factors at play

[IndraD]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/01 ... changeable

UK has quietly updated vaccination policy and approved mix and match. This means one who had Pfizer can opt for Oxford, if the former is not available.

[sanjaykumar]

The Sinopac Chinese vaccine seems a bit suspicious. China has only now released it for general use, even having had the first mover advantage.

Paxitani freight on board costs are unknown. There will be the usual cut for the glorious army of the motherland in addition. Paxitani cases are low because it costs PR 7000 to do the Wuhan virus test. How many Paxitanis can afford the vaccine?

I am curious what Indian public opinion would be on sharing the SII Covaxin vaccine with incorrigible neighbour to the west. Is it in India's self-interest? Is it ethically mandatory?

Perhaps it is time for a opinion poll.

[IndraD]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... LIONS.html
Oxford Uni to make millions from 6% stake in vaccine .
They regret not making money from Penicillin in 1940s

[IndraD]

China Has All It Needs to Vaccinate Millions, Except Any Approved Vaccines. Across the country, local governments plan to inoculate 50 million people against the coronavirus by early next year. But the vaccines have not officially been approved. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/29/busi ... ccine.html


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features ... d-vaccines
China Is Struggling to Get the World to Trust Its Vaccines
What should have been a big Covid win for Beijing in building ties is revealing widespread mistrust in China’s products.