Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[TKiran]

^^In India most bodies are cremated/buried within 24 hours of death leaving little chance of people getting infected from them. In my wife's BiL case the body was not even given to the family but taken directly to the crematorium and cremated. But in the USA practice being to keep the bodies for viewing for a few days before burying. I do not know if the practice has changed now. Is this causing the high infection rates?

Viruses are RNA based, they die the moment the host dies.

[Amber G.]

This B117 strain is serious *extremely* serious!
Suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.

But with contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, 3000 new cases/day instead ..



Serious warnings are being issued (or will become a BIG news in coming weeks even in non-scientific world ) here in USA but it seems that it has not sink in yet ..(True for other parts where this strain is becoming more predominate).

One serious datapoint is Israel - which at present is in full lockdown.. still numbers keep going up, barely able to control it. With a tightened lockdown the numbers are going down slightly--- but this is happening in a country where almost 1/4 of population is now partially vaccinated AND we are on lockdown.

(I have called several of my friends/relatives - many of them doctors - to alert and pass some of the recommendations - especially those who have to be out - to stay safe and have discussed some extra precautions it with them - even some of them were not aware with the latest data or seriousness).

If you are in California (or other parts in US) please stay safe - the model is suggesting it is going to get much worse (in mid -late March) here. Moderna, per data is little better (in terms of time - when immunity starts building up) but even if you have taken vaccine's first dose still be safe - follow CDC's *new* guidelines.

[sanjaykumar]

^^In India most bodies are cremated/buried within 24 hours of death leaving little chance of people getting infected from them. In my wife's BiL case the body was not even given to the family but taken directly to the crematorium and cremated. But in the USA practice being to keep the bodies for viewing for a few days before burying. I do not know if the practice has changed now. Is this causing the high infection rates?

Viruses are RNA based, they die the moment the host dies.

Many jurisdictions have limits on attendees at funerals. There is an embalming process involved. One would expect high rates among morticians.
__________________________


Metabolic processes, gene expression, hair and nail growth continue for some time after "death". I am not sure what RNA viruses per se have to do with it.

[Amber G.]

CDC paper for B117 strain - (see my post above) https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/ ... 03e2-H.pdf

[TKiran]

^^^if Viruses are DNA based, (which is wrong, all viruses are RNA based) like the bacteria, they can survive even without the host alive, in the form of eggs or some other form of mutations. But RNA doesn't have life of its own without the host. That is what is my understanding. (Please correct me if i am wrong)

[sanjaykumar]

TKiran. Please do not post on these topics until you have read up on the basics. Trust me on this one.

[TKiran]

TKiran. Please do not post on these topics until you have read up on the basics. Trust me on this one.

OK I will stop... my knowledge is rusty.

(But if you could care, can you tell if RNA can multiply without a host? At the max. it may survive for 8 hours to 1 day, if the dead body sneezed before dieing, but thats about it, i thought...)

[sanjaykumar]

By definition, viruses can't multiply without the host.

However, host in this case is merely the RNA replication machinery along with gene transcript and translation for virus coat proteins, replication enzymes etc. As long as there are nucleotide precursors (includes energy source as ~P, pronounced squiggle P, (energetic phosphate), the virus can undergo replication. Without oxidative generation of ATP (we can ignore anaerobic generation of ATP), the process will be limited to extant stores.

[TKiran]

OK, sorry, but i will stop with this last question, if you think that this is too stupid a question, you needn't answer.

Statement: The dead body can still be dangerous/infectious till there's ATP (Adenosine Tri Phosphate) (I studied in telugu medium, we used to call it కణ శక్తి భాండాగారం) which could be for more than 2-3 days.

Question: is the above statement TRUE?

[vijayk]

[sanjaykumar]

There is a requirement for CTP UTP GTP as well. Also ribosomes etc. But yes you are getting the idea.

I do not know about time lines. Possibly only until presently replicating viral particles complete their replication.

It’s as always an interesting topic for research perhaps a little morbid.

I believe all societies have cultural protocols for disposing of potentially infected bodies. We call them taboos. Again another topic of study.

[TKiran]

^^^^the original question by Saip was about the timelines.

As i didn't know that the dead body could be infectious, i literally wept when in April, some people refused to take a dead body to cremation, a doctor himself drove the body in a tractor and did the last rites.

I used to think that "humanity has died, and stupid people didn't know that the dead body is no more infectious. " but now i understand that it was me too melodramatic... perhaps the people were wise enough to understand that the dead body was still infectious.

Still the unanswered part is "how long the dead body is infectious " ???

Another most important/fundamental question is, "Is a dead body infectious at all"?

[saip]

^^In India most bodies are cremated/buried within 24 hours of death leaving little chance of people getting infected from them. In my wife's BiL case the body was not even given to the family but taken directly to the crematorium and cremated. But in the USA practice being to keep the bodies for viewing for a few days before burying. I do not know if the practice has changed now. Is this causing the high infection rates?

Viruses are RNA based, they die the moment the host dies.

Have you read IndraD's post above mine? His post is contrary to what you say. I believe he is a physician.

[TKiran]

IndraD was not talking about dead bodies, but you were talking about the "dead bodies"

You don't have to be a physician to know about DNA/RNA, I studied about DNA/RNA when I was in 8th standard in 1985 when preparing for NTSE exam.

Dr Sanjay is also confirming that the Viruses can't replicate without host. A small numbers may still survive inside a dead body cells, but without blood flow how can the virus be infectious? These are all questions anybody of 10th standard can pose.

Of course, i am not a Virologist, but an Engineer.

[saip]

My bad. I mistook 'diseased' with 'deceased'

[Amber G.]

Statement: The dead body can still be dangerous/infectious till there's ATP (Adenosine Tri Phosphate) (I studied in telugu medium, we used to call it కణ శక్తి భాండాగారం) which could be for more than 2-3 days.

Question: is the above statement TRUE?

Allow me to answer it in simple /math terms.. Though *actual* values may differ (if one wants to be extremely accurate).. depending on the body/virus/which part of the body the virus is in etc... but for Corona virus and human body figures are approx:

To get rid of 90% of viruses (of CV type) at typical body at room temperature is about 15 days.
To get rid of 90% of viruses at low temperature (2C) is about 70 days.

(BTW if you start with 1,000,000,000 viruses and get rid of 90% of them, you will still have 100,000,000 viruses)
(These numbers can vary but you get the idea)
(Increase these times - simple e^(-xt) to estimate if you want to get 99% of the viruses)

[sanjaykumar]

You don't have to be a physician to know about DNA/RNA,....


Correction... You don't have to be a physician to know nothing about DNA/RNA, ... That would probably be more accurate.


Does your car mechanic know about thermodynamics to follow the protocols for it?

[Atmavik]

This B117 strain is serious *extremely* serious!
Suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.

But with contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, 3000 new cases/day instead ..

can this new strain re infect a person who has recovered from covid -19 ? i am asking as to me and my family have recently recovered from covid 19. i searched around the net but don't get any clear answers.

Thanks

[TKiran]

Statement: The dead body can still be dangerous/infectious till there's ATP (Adenosine Tri Phosphate) (I studied in telugu medium, we used to call it కణ శక్తి భాండాగారం) which could be for more than 2-3 days.

Question: is the above statement TRUE?

Allow me to answer it in simple /math terms.. Though *actual* values may differ (if one wants to be extremely accurate).. depending on the body/virus/which part of the body the virus is in etc... but for Corona virus and human body figures are approx:

To get rid of 90% of viruses (of CV type) at typical body at room temperature is about 15 days.
To get rid of 90% of viruses at low temperature (2C) is about 70 days.

(BTW if you start with 1,000,000,000 viruses and get rid of 90% of them, you will still have 100,000,000 viruses)
(These numbers can vary but you get the idea)
(Increase these times - simple e^(-xt) to estimate if you want to get 99% of the viruses)

Respected Amber G ma'am,

Are you saying that when the Host (mostly lungs, and some other kapha type of organs of a human body) which is dead, meaning no more Prana {yoga terminology}, or Apana or vyana or Samana or Udaana, can still keep a virus intact for 70 days? its unbelievable, if true. But I believe you, as all I know is that the Virus can't get replicated, but the existing full fledged virus is in tact.

The next question is, "is the dead body infectious?" For the virus to be infectious, the virus should be able to move to atleast the skin of the dead body. How can it move?

This is my last question, I will not ask any more questions.

Regards

[Tanaji]

TKiran,

If the virus can stay on inert surfaces such as plastics for up to 72 hours depending upon ambient temperature, a human body is a far more receptive environment for it

[sanjaykumar]

Always question the data and assumptions. The figures provided are very unlikely to be legitimate.

Have human bodies been sampled after 90 days of room temperature storage versus low temperature?

These numbers read suspiciously like temperature inactivation curves for viruses in perhaps aqueous solution.

Autolytic enzymes released from cell organelles do not seem to have been factored. Again that is elementary biology.


At any rate, I am glad the information on viral survival and cultural taboos gave you some perspective on the actions of those to whom you refer.

[saip]

The study was done for bird flu virus in chicken carcasses.

[TKiran]

TKiran,

If the virus can stay on inert surfaces such as plastics for up to 72 hours depending upon ambient temperature, a human body is a far more receptive environment for it

Tanaji sir, receptive environment is OK as long as the host is surviving and sneezing and oozing out bodily fluids. When all that seizes when the Host is dead, is that "dead body" still infectious/receptive? (Barring a few replicating till there's energy stored in the cells exhast)

[nam]

Just found out that the official death toll in BD due to the Chinese virus is around 9K! Even if the numbers are understated, for a dense country like BD, hospitals should be overflowing.

Now I am starting to believe that the tropical temperature helps. Not in killing in the virus, but preventing people from staying together in closed space. The fact that people in India/BD are forced to keep their windows open and use fan due to warm temperature, means the virus is not easily transmitted. It is only during monsoon, when people are inside, which had the most effect. As we have seen in India.

In europe, due to closed space, heating during cold etc has caused the maximum transmission. Looks like the transmission behavior is exactly like a regular flu, but with dangerous consequences.

People don't end up in hospital for a regular flu, while this one does.

A reason, why Pak escaped major damages.

[sanjaykumar]

That is what I thought they may done, only survival times seem quite long.

[sanjaykumar]

^BD has some abysmal hygiene parameters- see cholera rates, water inundation, open defecation etc

The hygiene hypothesis postulates that exposure to varied antigens may confer resistance to autoimmune disease and also infections.Also the Wuhan virus infections in Kerala are much higher than in Bihar, possibly due to similar considerations.

[g.sarkar]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article ... d-u-k.html
New COVID Strain Spreading Across U.S.: What We Know
By Matt Stieb, Jan. 22, 2021
A new variant of the coronavirus believed to spread more easily has forced the United Kingdom into another lockdown and been detected in at least 33 countries, including the United States. Many of the U.S. cases have no known travel history — meaning the strain is spreading throughout communities. The variant, known as B.1.1.7, is not expected to be resistant to the vaccines rolled out in December, though scientists are racing to learn more about the mutation — and where it has already spread. Below is a primer for the public-health and political ramifications of the concerning development.
The B.1.1.7 (U.K.) strain has been found in at least 21 U.S. states
The first U.S. cases of B.1.1.7. were identified in Colorado on December 29. On December 31, Florida health officials confirmed that a man in his 20s with no history of traveling had tested positive for the new COVID strain. These infections were shortly followed by California officials reporting six cases within the state: two in the same household in the Big Bear area east of Los Angeles and four in San Diego County. (One of the two Big Bear patients had contact with a person who returned from the U.K.) On January 4 and 5, New York and Georgia reported B.1.1.7. cases in patients with no travel history.
As of January 21, multiple cases of the strain have been detected in 14 states, including Florida, California, New York, Colorado, Minnesota, Georgia, Indiana, Texas, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Tennessee. Single cases have been detected in seven other states.
Previously, the Centers for Disease Control has warned that the U.K. variant may already be spreading within the United States, because there is still ongoing travel between the nations and because scientists have not sequenced the genetic coding of the vast majority of cases. And on January 3, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned that the new strain could account for the majority of new cases in the U.S. by March.
How is this COVID strain different?
The variation found in the U.K., also known as “VUI – 202012/01” was first identified there in mid-September, according to the World Health Organization. Its mutations have occurred on the genetic material that controls the spike protein, which allows COVID and other similar viruses to penetrate host cells, causing infection.
According to the U.K.’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, there are 23 changes in the virus’s genetic material, an unusually large number that appears to be helping it spread more quickly. British officials have now estimated that the strain is as much as 70 percent more transmissible — a number that is based on modeling, but not yet confirmed in lab experiments. A later study, published on December 23, suggested a smaller, but still dangerous number: that the British mutation is 56 percent more contagious. Still, other scientists have expressed skepticism that the mutation necessarily means it is more transmissible, pointing to other potential explanations such as mask-wearing and social distancing.
.....
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... -homegrown
Could a homegrown coronavirus strain be partly to blame for California’s surge?
By Melissa Healy, Rong-Gong Lin II, Jan. 23, 2021
California scientists have discovered a homegrown coronavirus strain that appears to be propagating faster than any other variant on the loose in the Golden State.
Two independent research groups said they stumbled upon the new strain while looking for signs that a highly transmissible variant from the United Kingdom had established itself here. Instead, they found a new branch of the virus’ family tree — one whose sudden rise and distinctive mutations have made it a prime suspect in California’s vicious holiday surge.
As they pored over genetic sequencing data in late December and early January, the two teams saw evidence of the new strain’s prolific spread leap off their spreadsheets. Though focused on different regions of the state, they uncovered trends that were both remarkably similar and deeply worrying.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles found that although the strain had been barely detectable in early October, it accounted for 24% of roughly 4,500 viral samples gathered throughout California in the last weeks of 2020.
In a separate analysis of 332 virus samples culled mostly from Northern California during late November and December, 25% were of the same type.
“There was a homegrown variant under our noses,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, a laboratory medicine specialist at UC San Francisco who examined the samples from the northern part of the state with collaborators from the California Department of Public Health. Were they not on the hunt for the U.K. strain and other viral variants, he said, “we could have missed this at every level.”
The new strain, which scientists have dubbed B.1.426, bears five mutations in its genetic code. One of them, known as L452R, alters the virus’ spike protein, the tool it uses to infiltrate human cells and turn them into virus-making factories.
Over multiple generations, even a small improvement in this ability will help a virus propagate more easily through a population, driving up infections, hospitalizations and deaths.
......
Gautam

[Bart S]

^BD has some abysmal hygiene parameters- see cholera rates, water inundation, open defecation etc

The hygiene hypothesis postulates that exposure to varied antigens may confer resistance to autoimmune disease and also infections.Also the Wuhan virus infections in Kerala are much higher than in Bihar, possibly due to similar considerations.

A few reputed Indian scientists about a month ago published their theory based on data that they have collected, that the sterile environment (for e.g of Western countries) contributed to the severity of the disease. Their conclusion was that COVID, unlike some other viruses, kills not so much by the action of the virus, but by the autoimmune reaction that it triggers. In tropical and less developed countries, the autoimmune system is already tested and tuned by various pathogens, which might not be the case in more developed countries. It's like somebody who lives in a dangerous neighborhood full time, vs somebody who lives in a posh area and suddenly finds themselves in a dangerous neighborhood in which they are not prepared to protect themselves.

[Yayavar]

^BD has some abysmal hygiene parameters- see cholera rates, water inundation, open defecation etc

The hygiene hypothesis postulates that exposure to varied antigens may confer resistance to autoimmune disease and also infections.Also the Wuhan virus infections in Kerala are much higher than in Bihar, possibly due to similar considerations.

A few reputed Indian scientists about a month ago published their theory based on data that they have collected, that the sterile environment (for e.g of Western countries) contributed to the severity of the disease. Their conclusion was that COVID, unlike some other viruses, kills not so much by the action of the virus, but by the autoimmune reaction that it triggers. In tropical and less developed countries, the autoimmune system is already tested and tuned by various pathogens, which might not be the case in more developed countries. It's like somebody who lives in a dangerous neighborhood full time, vs somebody who lives in a posh area and suddenly finds themselves in a dangerous neighborhood in which they are not prepared to protect themselves.

Bart - do you have a link to the paper?

[Bart S]

Bart - do you have a link to the paper?

I don't have it but you can find details in Shekhar Gupta's video here and can probably locate the original research based on the names and details shared.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z16KmsfI3hE

[Amber G.]

Reports of Moderna/Tata possible team up to produce this mRNA vaccine in India.

[nvishal]

The b117 strain is predicted to become dominant by march. Another source predicts it will be dominated by mid-feb itself.

None of the current vaccines have been satisfactorily effective against b117. Even if Oxford jab is 20% effective against the new strain, it is better than nothing.

[vimal]

The b117 strain is predicted to become dominant by march. Another source predicts it will be dominated by mid-feb itself.

None of the current vaccines have been satisfactorily effective against b117. Even if Oxford jab is 20% effective against the new strain, it is better than nothing.

So does it mean that there will never be a Covid free world ever and we will have to now wear mask and use sanitizer till the end of time. It'll become like flu (but much more deadlier) with a new vaccine every season. WTF Xitler release on this world.

[Cyrano]

There could be simple factors such as air conditioning of houses, closed spaces and public places, plus insulation for winter times which prevents free air circulation that enables easy virus transmission IMHO. Conditions largely absent in Indian sub continent & SE Asia, along with greater sunlight hours, higher winter temperatures and higher humidity.

The cumulative effect of the factors above + lower hygiene standards leading to higher base immunity levels, prior vaccinations like BCG, Polio etc. might explain these enormous discrepancies in infection rates between Europe, North America and Indian SC and South Asia me thinks a bit speculatively.

The good news so far is that the new strains are not expected to be more vaccine resistant.

[Zynda]

I think the current pace of vaccination is not fast enough...we have massive population along with possibility of newer strains which may reign further economic & personal havoc...

Covid-19: At current rate, India may take 3 years to vaccinate 30 crore people

Even though India inoculated its first one million individuals faster than the US and UK, the country may take up to three years to vaccinate the prioritised 300 million population going by the current rate, experts have estimated.

India’s current capacity is about vaccinating 300,000 people per day. Going by the first week’s number, the current rate of vaccination is about 58% of capacity, which would improve in the coming days.

If the vaccination rate improves to an average of 200,000 per day, i.e., 67% or 2/3rd of capacity over the next couple of months, covering 30 million healthcare and frontline workers would take 5 months or till mid-June, said virologist Shahid Jameel, director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University.

Vaccination for the 270 million higher age group would likely start while the second phase of 20 million frontline workers is still being vaccinated. This may happen by late April or early May. At the current capacity of 3 lakhs per day or 90 lakhs (9 million) per month, it would still take at least 27 months. Since everyone needs two doses 4 weeks apart, it would possibly take 36 months (or 3 years).

“The bottleneck is not vaccine availability, but our ability to get it into people. We will require much more capacity to get this done faster,” Jameel told DH.

The gap was there on each of the seven days between January 17 and January 23, ranging from 30-47%. India, however, took only 6 days to roll out 1 million vaccine doses. This count is higher for countries like the US and the UK. The UK took 18 days whereas the US took 10 days to reach the 1 million mark.

Sources said that some of the states like West Bengal asked the Centre to clarify if a person refused to take Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin – a vaccine that lacks efficacy data at the moment could he or she be given Serum Institute’s Covishield. At the moment, there is no clarity in the central government’s instructions submitted to the states.

Public health experts are of the opinion that India needs to accelerate the vaccination exercise to inoculate 3-4 million people daily if it has to inoculate 300 million by August. This seems to be an impossible task going by the current rates.

Asked whether 300 million can be vaccinated by October, senior scientist Satyajit Rath, formerly associated with the National Institute of Immunology, Delhi said, "By current speed, the obvious arithmetic is that it will take years to vaccinate the country.”

“However, I expect that the vaccination process will expand further and will become smoother and somewhat faster. Just how much faster is anybody's guess. I still doubt that an October deadline can be met, but I will be glad to be wrong."

I understand the vaccination procedures are being refined but I do hope we get it sorted in the next 2-3 weeks and from there on, carry out max vaccination drives. The current plan of covering just 30 Million (10 Mil HCWs + 20 Mil front line workers) till end of April is quite slow. My colleagues are telling me that some of their parents who are residing in Saudi, UAE etc., are being vaccinated right in malls and/or drive in centers.

Perhaps resident docs can shed light on what can be done to improve pace of vaccination.

[Shaktimaan]

Saars, the farmers have been squatting in dense colonies around Delhi for weeks now. Do we have an explanation for why the virus is not raging through them? Are most of them immune already?

[ArjunPandit]

Do we have any tracker for CoVID 19 vaccination ?

[nvishal]

Search for @Covid19_indiaupdates
On telegram

[sudarshan]

Saars, the farmers have been squatting in dense colonies around Delhi for weeks now. Do we have an explanation for why the virus is not raging through them? Are most of them immune already?

The vaccine is probably unnecessary in India now. Of course, no govt. and nobody in general wants to play with that chance. This new B117 variant, the one that is deemed more contagious - there is very little likelihood that it is NOT already prevalent among the "farmers," let alone the general population.

There are countries where a very good case may be made, that the vaccine is necessary. Going by the data so far, India does not seem to be one of them. However, the chance to take over a significant part of the global pharma market must not be missed, so long as the vaccine is effective and otherwise harmless (which seems to be the case).

[vijayk]

Do we have any tracker for CoVID 19 vaccination ?

official
https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

twitter account - unofficial
https://twitter.com/outbreak_india

Latest tweet
https://twitter.com/outbreak_india/stat ... 2195066881

Update at 8 am today 25-Jan

Total Vaccinated: 16,15,504Up-pointing red triangle33,303