Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Bart S
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 06 Feb 2021 04:41

Isn't it the same story at The Lancet as well, with them going as far as publishing political editorials etc? IIRC they even published fake data on HCQ (before withdrawing it) coloured by their left-wing bias and hatred for Trump.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Tanaji » 06 Feb 2021 05:01

How is such a journal considered to be a premier medical journal? While IEEE sometimes pulls crap like this (remember the H1b thing) it is nowhere at this level...

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby mappunni » 06 Feb 2021 13:02

saip wrote:^^Where did you get that?
Doses administered:
CA 9424/100k
NY 10,591/100k
TX 9675/100K
Very few state have exceeded 10k per 100 K
OR (11190), OK (12241), WV (15443).
Sure these numbers can and should be improved. But you can not look everything through political lenses.

CDC


Saar just wait for a few more weeks and you will see Texas moving to the top. The drive thru center I went is designed to scale 3x which means just this one center can vaccinate 30k people a day. Considering Texas had much bigger population to inoculate.

g.sarkar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 06 Feb 2021 14:46

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5 ... d-in-india
Pfizer withdraws COVID-19 vaccine emergency use bid in India
By Celine Castronuovo - 02/05/21

Pfizer has removed its bid for emergency approval of its coronavirus vaccine in India, citing additional information needed by the country’s drug regulator, the pharmaceutical company confirmed to The Hill.
The decision, first reported by Reuters on Friday, came after a Wednesday meeting with India’s Central Drugs Standard Control Organization.
“Based on the deliberations at the meeting and our understanding of additional information that the regulator may need, the company has decided to withdraw its application at this time,” Pfizer said in a statement shared with The Hill.
The company added that it “will continue to engage with the authority and resubmit its approval request with additional information as it becomes available in the near future.”
The statement went on to say, “Pfizer remains committed to making its vaccine available for use by the Government in India and to pursuing the requisite pathway for emergency use authorization that enables the availability of this vaccine for any future deployment.”
.....
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/5 ... e-in-india
Pfizer withdraws emergency use bid of its COVID vaccine in India
India’s Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation has declined to accept Pfizer’s request for approval without a small local trial.
5 Feb 2021

Pfizer Inc has withdrawn an application for emergency-use authorisation of its COVID-19 vaccine in India that it has developed with Germany’s BioNTech, the company told the Reuters news agency on Friday.
The United States company, which was the first drugmaker to apply for emergency use authorisation of its COVID-19 vaccine in India, had a meeting with the country’s drugs regulator on Wednesday and the decision was made after that, the company said.
“Based on the deliberations at the meeting and our understanding of additional information that the regulator may need, the company has decided to withdraw its application at this time,” it said in a statement to Reuters.
“Pfizer will continue to engage with the authority and re-submit its approval request with additional information as it becomes available in the near future.”
Pfizer had sought authorisation for its vaccine in India late last year, but the government in January approved two much cheaper shots – one from Oxford University-AstraZeneca and another developed at home by Bharat Biotech with the Indian Council of Medical Research.
Both companies had applied for approval of their vaccines after Pfizer.
......
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby dhyana » 06 Feb 2021 14:57

India’s mRNA-based Covid vaccine won’t need ultra cold conditions for storage

CSIR in talks to bring Moderna’s Covid vaccine to India

Hyderabad’s CCMB to set up exclusive lab to develop RNA tech for use in Covid vaccines

Informative series of articles in ThePrint, re: mRNA vaccine technology development in India.

Current options available to India in managing the pandemic are rooted in biotech foundations laid previously, utilizing classic vaccine techniques. As illustrated by the numerous countries who have yet to get an invite to a seat at the vaccine table. Important to get a foothold in this emerging field. Be it licensed mass-production, co-development, collaborative and de-novo research, whatever.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 06 Feb 2021 16:26

Casual discussion by medical professionals on social media saying that covid19 vaccination may become a mandatory yearly thing like seasonal flu shots. Covid19 is mutating and it may just be a matter of months before current vaccines efficacy falls bellow 50%.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 06 Feb 2021 20:23

So it seems like many people in Ph-1 at least are hesitant to receive vaccine yet their names are enrolled and a slot allotted to them. Read on NDTV article that currently in India, there is more than enough vaccine to go around (so much that SII is considering reducing production temporarily on one of its line) but not enough takers. So far, India has vaccinated only 50% of its target in Ph-1.

I hope for Ph-2, instead of just enrolling all employees of eligible Government entities, GoI should ask each department to conduct an internal assessment of how many people who are willing to get vaccine currently and sent in their names onlee.

Like Raja was mentioning, there are many people who are willing to get vaccinated but may have to wait months while many people who are currently eligible are rejecting. I do hope that at least by April, GoI will allow common folks to receive vaccine at private centres even if they have to pay.

I do hope we don't see any further waves but keeping majority of the population waiting for vaccine is not a good idea IMHO.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aldonkar » 06 Feb 2021 20:44

Tanaji wrote:Why do medical journals such as Lancet and BMJ write political articles? More to the point, why do the medical professionals in UK dont call them out on this? Isn’t the head of some medical association of doctors in UK a guy of Indian origin?


The head of the BMA is an Indian origin medical doctor, Dr. Chand Nagpaul. He is actually my mother's GP, she is aged 97.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vijayk » 06 Feb 2021 23:18

Image

220K prelim

saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 06 Feb 2021 23:59

mappunni wrote:
saip wrote:^^Where did you get that?
Doses administered:
CA 9424/100k
NY 10,591/100k
TX 9675/100K
Very few state have exceeded 10k per 100 K
OR (11190), OK (12241), WV (15443).
Sure these numbers can and should be improved. But you can not look everything through political lenses.

CDC


Saar just wait for a few more weeks and you will see Texas moving to the top. The drive thru center I went is designed to scale 3x which means just this one center can vaccinate 30k people a day. Considering Texas had much bigger population to inoculate.

Then why not post it when it happens? I signed up for 5-5:30 pm slot in my county. I was out at 5:25 pm including the wait time of 15 minutes. No wait time at all to get in. Could happen, might happen does not mean WILL HAPPEN. If you look at the map NY is ahead of TX in doses per 100k. And many states are much ahead of both the sates(the darker ones) with W Virginia leading the race. So much so Biden admin called them to find out how their success can be transferred to other states.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 07 Feb 2021 00:05

Should not this US vaccine distribution be discussed in US related threads? Supply going to each depot should be discussed before distribution.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Primus » 07 Feb 2021 00:44

Bart S wrote:Isn't it the same story at The Lancet as well, with them going as far as publishing political editorials etc? IIRC they even published fake data on HCQ (before withdrawing it) coloured by their left-wing bias and hatred for Trump.


It was the Lancet that was responsible for the anti-vaxer movement since it published that idiot Wakefield's paper in 1998. Later retracted but the damage was already done by then.

Having worked in the NHS for several years, I know they treat their journals as the Holy Bible and are very proud of their legacy - sadly all gone downhill over the past several decades.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 08 Feb 2021 07:10

https://twitter.com/tahirqadiry/status/ ... 2115658753

500k vaccines delivered to Kabul by Air India

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 08 Feb 2021 12:42

South Africa has halted its mass vaccination plans after Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine tests on the south african variant gave dissatisfying results. They are looking for another vaccine that works on that variant.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Raja » 08 Feb 2021 12:52

I really hope we can get to atleast 35% vaccination rate and production of 3 proven vaccinations before the next wave.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 08 Feb 2021 15:25

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... aul-kagame
Until Africans get the Covid vaccinations they need, the whole world will suffer
Paul Kagame, Sun 7 Feb 2021
We’re not asking for charity, but fairness – instead of the hoarding and protectionism currently in play
Paul Kagame is the president of Rwanda

The current situation with regard to the access and distribution of Covid-19 vaccines vividly illustrates the decades-old contradictions of the world order.
Rich and powerful nations have rushed to lock up supply of multiple vaccine candidates. Worse, some are hoarding vaccines – purchasing many times more doses than they need. This leaves African and other developing countries either far behind in the vaccine queue, or not in it at all.
There are worrying signs of vaccine nationalism in Europe and North America. The pressures on political leaders to vaccinate all their citizens before sharing supplies with others is understandable. But forcing smaller or poorer countries to wait until everyone in the north has been catered for is shortsighted.
Delaying access to vaccines for citizens of developing countries is ultimately many times more costly. The pandemic will rage on, crippling the global economy. New mutations may continue to emerge at a more rapid pace. The world risks reversing decades of human development gains and eclipsing the 2030 sustainable development goals.
In this context, the billions of dollars it would cost to distribute vaccines across the developing world is not particularly high, given the return on the investment. Doing so would unlock global commerce, which would benefit all trading nations during the long road to economic recovery that lies ahead of us. We need global value chains to be fully operational again and to include everyone.
Last year, the world came together to provide additional fiscal space for developing countries through the debt service suspension initiative at the G20. This helped governments in Africa pay for their Covid responses and provide additional social protection, thereby preventing the worst outcomes. We shouldn’t lose that spirit now and give in to an unfortunate erosion of global solidarity.
The Covax facility, led by the World Health Organization, was supposed to ensure doses for 20% of Africa’s people – right from the start and at the same time as richer countries. However, nearly two months after the first vaccines have been administered, it is still not clear when African nations will be able to start immunising people, though the first doses may begin reaching the continent later this month.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cyrano » 08 Feb 2021 17:14

US and UK's attitude to corner and hoard vaccines has been of exemplary greed. US not using doses efficiently (heck they cant even track where they are) and wasting doses, UK acting like a black-marketeer. China - snake oil peddler whom no one trusts now. Europe - incoherent and powerless, like the rest of G20.

Opportunity for India to step in and build lasting good will. We are witnessing a change of world order unfold.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 08 Feb 2021 17:47

Zynda wrote:So it seems like many people in Ph-1 at least are hesitant to receive vaccine yet their names are enrolled and a slot allotted to them. Read on NDTV article that currently in India, there is more than enough vaccine to go around (so much that SII is considering reducing production temporarily on one of its line) but not enough takers. So far, India has vaccinated only 50% of its target in Ph-1.



One of the prime reason is that most of these medical professionals would have already been infected and cured. GoI should now go all out. No point wasting time doing 300K average per day.

Rollout 6AM to 10PM vaccination time and speccify the criteria. Essential workers, old age etc.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 08 Feb 2021 18:37

As India donates free vaccines, Canadian govt snatches vaccines from international fund for poor countries
https://www.opindia.com/2021/02/canada- ... shameless/
....
Now, if you ask the Canadian government, they did nothing wrong. They say they contributed $440 million to the fund in September last year. Now they are withdrawing half of that money to buy vaccines for themselves (for now).
....

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 09 Feb 2021 02:23

Tanaji wrote:How is such a journal considered to be a premier medical journal? While IEEE sometimes pulls crap like this (remember the H1b thing) it is nowhere at this level...


Yeah, I think these journals. Should refrain from such overtly political articles. These editors can publish these views in newspapers, but IMO not scientific journals.

I was just talking with a colleague about how amazingly well India has handled COVID, and wondered if we're doing a lot of bad by our patients by not using HCQ early on in the disease or Ivermectin in any patient. The culture here in the states really frown upon using these meds due to the lack of high quality Western studies, but I do struggle with the idea that I may be missing a lot of opportunities to save or improve lives for fear of being a pariah in my medical community.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 09 Feb 2021 02:31

but I do struggle with the idea that I may be missing a lot of opportunities to save or improve lives for fear of being a pariah in my medical community.

Pariah is a strong word. What problems does a doctor in the US face that prevents them from prescribing these to patients ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 09 Feb 2021 02:37

Lawsuits for any and all real or perceived side effects from being given medications off label.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby dhyana » 09 Feb 2021 02:52

As DavidD mentions, there is a politicization even in medicine, unfortunately, in the states. And the concerted coordination can be very telling. For instance, even though HCQ is relatively cheap here (but still quite $ compared to India, or most any other country), there were significant restrictions placed by insurance companies on covering this medicine. Had to go through many hoops to get a 'prior authorization', etc.

And, if there is some sort of side effect- get ready for a possible medico-legal backlash; no one would have your back (sanjaykumar nailed it). I say this from only second-hand information- not being in a specialty that directly prescribes it, but listening to colleagues who would.

That the studies were inexplicably done with acute/high-dose HCQ, and not low-dose prophylaxis, is another thing altogether. Another example: even now, people are debating double-masking, triple-masking, etc., vs. doubling down on the indoors social gatherings that are the real spreaders of the illness. But the former is politically easy to say (and near-worthless in the bigger context), the latter is politically much less palatable to enforce (but would be far more effective).

I've not seen so much nonsense ever in my career.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Uttam » 09 Feb 2021 02:59

Suraj wrote:
but I do struggle with the idea that I may be missing a lot of opportunities to save or improve lives for fear of being a pariah in my medical community.

Pariah is a strong word. What problems does a doctor in the US face that prevents them from prescribing these to patients ?


Malpractice Lawsuit is definitely a possibility. It is not banned but certainly discouraged. Here is what FDA says about off-label prescriptions:

Unapproved use of an approved drug is often called “off-label” use. This term can mean that the drug is:

*Used for a disease or medical condition that it is not approved to treat, such as when a chemotherapy is approved to treat one type of cancer, but healthcare providers use it to treat a different type of cancer.

*Given in a different way, such as when a drug is approved as a capsule, but it is given instead in an oral solution.

*Given in a different dose, such as when a drug is approved at a dose of one tablet every day, but a patient is told by their healthcare provider to take two tablets every day.

If you and your healthcare provider decide to use an approved drug for an unapproved use to treat your disease or medical condition, remember that FDA has not determined that the drug is safe and effective for the unapproved use.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 09 Feb 2021 03:13

Lawsuits are certainly a concern, my wife's been involved in a couple lawsuits already in just a few years of practice, but she's an OBGYN so a lot higher risk there. I wouldn't underestimate the amount of pressure from colleagues as well. I work as a hospitalist in a group, we all take care each other's patients, and there's plenty of pressure both from higher ups and peers not to use these medications, particularly after HCQ is proven not to be useful later on in the disease course.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 09 Feb 2021 06:26

nvishal wrote:Casual discussion by medical professionals on social media saying that covid19 vaccination may become a mandatory yearly thing like seasonal flu shots. Covid19 is mutating and it may just be a matter of months before current vaccines efficacy falls bellow 50%.


The upside is that new mutations will be less deadly. Survival of the fittest. Those mutations which kill the host fast are not fit to survive, i.e. they can't replicate their own strain.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 09 Feb 2021 07:07

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00277-8?s=03

EDITORIAL 02 FEBRUARY 2021
Coronavirus is in the air — there’s too much focus on surfaces

Catching the coronavirus from surfaces is rare. The World Health Organization and national public-health agencies need to clarify their advice.


I apologize if it is a repost.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby darshan » 09 Feb 2021 19:56

chinese and credibility never go together.
China claims it has nothing to hide on coronavirus but made two crucial virus databases inaccessible in Sept 2019. Here is what we know
https://www.opindia.com/2021/02/china-w ... n-coverup/
Where did Chinese coronavirus come from? It is a million-dollar question that is making every government, virologist, and other experts scratch their heads. The reason? China, from where the deadly virus was first reported, is sitting on the answers yet claim it has nothing to hide. China has not really been too helpful and forthcoming in helping the world know about the origins of the pandemic, and one can only speculate what went wrong as the dragon is keeping mum.
.....

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 10 Feb 2021 04:22

Thanks for all the feedback regarding US doctors and HCQ!

6.26 million vaccinated so far, 440K yesterday. The vaccination rate is stubbornly stuck between 400-550k a day. Does anyone have insight or information on what's preventing them from ramping this up to a few million doses administered per day ? Where are they bottlenecked here ?

Parsing the language of the PIB press release, they're vaccinating only healthcare and frontline workers right now, it appears. It looks like the high risk general population will only be vaccinated once the frontline workers have had ~2 weeks to build immunity from the vaccinations themselves. This means at some point in near future the vaccination rate will increase significantly as the general population start getting inoculated in phases.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vayutuvan » 10 Feb 2021 06:47

I am still confused re. HCQ. Is the combo HCQ+Ivermectin+Zinc useful as a prophylactic or not? Has it been resolved yet?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Atmavik » 10 Feb 2021 07:13

South Africa suspends rollout of Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine | DW News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIkwaoCkWks

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Ashokk » 10 Feb 2021 19:11

Coronavirus treatment: Israeli scientists claim to develop 96% effective COVID cure drug, hailed as a medical breakthrough
While vaccination drives pick up pace, newer hope for fighting COVID and fastening recovery timelines has emerged in the form of a new COVID drug, which claims to be super effective in rooting away the contagious SARS- COV-2 virus.
Developed by Israeli medical scientists, preliminary results from one of the trials conducted in Tel Aviv hospitals have pointed out to startling evidence suggesting that the drug, originally made to treat cancer was able to help 29 out of 30 COVID+ patients recover a lot faster.
According to scientists, while average COVID-19 patients make a recovery in three-four weeks, the repurposed cancer drug helped patients in the sample group make a full recovery from the virus in just 4 days time. Only one of the patients took a longer while to recover.
The experimental drug was hatched less than a year ago, post which it was pushed into research and testing.
One of the lead scientists involved in the research, Professor Arber also said that the discovery of such a novel drug could lower the burden on the medical community, with or without the pandemic going away:
"Even if the vaccines do their job, and even if there aren't any new mutations, one way or another, the coronavirus will be staying with us. That's why we developed this special medication: EXO-CD24. This is unprecedented."

How does the drug work against COVID-19?
The drug, called EXO-CD24, researchers claim carries a whopping 96% efficacy, as proven by the initial studies.
The novel medicine, studied by the doctors at Ichilov Hospital in Tel Aviv was initially developed as a treatment strategy for cancer but experimentally tested on COVID patients who had been hospitalized with moderate or serious coronavirus complications.
Till now, no such coronavirus cure has been established globally. While most COVID-19 vaccines are experimentally made, the treatment drugs being used right now, such as Tocilizab, Favipiravir, Remdesivir have all been repurposed for use- and have a risk of side-effects.
The experimental drug, which has been repurposed for treatment has given fresh hope to the medical community worldwide.
What also makes the drug rather interesting is its economical cost and easy usage. According to Israeli scientists currently involved in the study of the medicine, the drug EXO-CD24 has to be administered 5 days in a row.
Scientists have also said that the novel coronavirus cure may be potentially helpful in rooting out cytokine storm, which is one of the commonly associated complications for COVID severity and in many cases, mortality as well.
According to studies, the drug makes use of 'exosomes', which works as a carrier to transport a crucial protein, CD24, which helps regulate immune functioning to the lungs.
Higher immune response and vital functioning would help evade the virus and fasten recovery timelines.
The groundbreaking results proven in clinical studies have not just been hailed as a big medical breakthrough, but scientists have also applied for grants to expand the trials.
Israeli scientists are now counting on further human trials and extensive research to study how well the drug, originally developed to fight ovarian cancer could work on hospitalized COVID patients. Trials have been planned on hundreds of patients now, with results which will be compared to placebo and other currently used COVID-19 drugs.
It's not the first time that such groundbreaking research has been done in Israel. Israeli scientists were earlier credited to have developed a unique cancer cure, first of its kind as well.
A number of breakthroughs, in regards to the pandemic, have also been made in Israel, including an easy to use rapid COVID-19 test developed in collaboration with Indian scientists.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Zynda » 10 Feb 2021 19:16

I think GoI has slotted for around 10L per day...read on NDTV last week that around 50% of HCWs don't want to take vaccine. Assuming it is correct, then the daily rate fo around 45-60% of 10L makes sense...but I was hoping that we would start Ph-2 of vaccination by now. It seems like that has not happened yet...the pace of vaccination is not fast enough!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Uttam » 11 Feb 2021 00:06

A study from Isreal

Vaccine reduces spread risk even before 2nd shot, Israeli study indicates
When people test COVID positive, viral loads are 4 times lower if they’re vaccinated, finds first-of-its-kind research; expert calls it ‘game-changer’ in pursuit of herd immunity


“Our results show that infections occurring 12 days or longer following vaccination have significantly reduced viral loads,” wrote a multi-institution research team that crunched data from the Maccabi healthcare provider, stating they believe that could be important in “potentially affecting viral shedding and contagiousness as well as severity of the disease.”


The viral load was shown to be reduced fourfold on average for infections occurring 12 to 28 days after the first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.


The new study, which has been posted online but not yet peer reviewed, is a collaboration of Maccabi and academics from Tel Aviv University and the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, supported by the Israel Science Foundation.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 11 Feb 2021 00:48

5Forty3 Published a long retrospective on 2020. Here is the URL 2020 Explained

Using a swab, a lab technician collects RNA from an individual’s nasal cavity. This RNA is then Reverse Transcribed into DNA. Then, through Polymerase Chain Reaction, specific sequences of genetic codes that are characteristically present in COVID virus are first identified and then amplified because invariably the viral genetic code in any sample would be very tiny. PCR essentially amplifies that tiny bit of genetic code in a series of cycles over and over again, until there is enough code that can be detected in a laboratory – this is a standard procedure for PCR tests across a wide spectrum of diagnostic measures. Simple logic then follows that higher the traces of virus in a sample, lesser are the number of cycles of amplification that are needed to detect a virus. The number of “Cycles” (of amplification) needed to detect a viral genetic code is known as “Cycle Threshold” or CT. A CT of 17 – which is 17 cycles of amplification of a viral genetic code – is generally considered as a gold standard in the PCR testing universe. The higher the CT, the greater the risk that insignificant sequences of viral DNA end up being magnified to the point that the test reads positive even if your viral load is extremely low or the virus is inactive and poses no threat to you or anyone else. It was universally accepted that any PCR test with more than 35 cycles is scientifically indefensible. Indeed, as recently as September of 2020, a study in Clinical Infectious Diseases done by eight Oxford scientists showed with utmost clarity that when you run a PCR test at a CT of 35 or more, the accuracy levels drop to 3%, resulting in a mindboggling 97% false positive rate!

Yet, WHO in its infinite wisdom, recommended RT-PCR tests for COVID-19 detection with a CT set at 45. In the US, the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) and the CDC (Centres for Disease Control & Prevention) recommended running PCR tests at a CT of 40. The world over, including here in India, the RT-PCR test regime for COVID-19 has been set at an average of 35 or more. If the CT were to be set at say 17 (or even maybe under 25), then detecting real COVID cases would have been like looking for a needle in a haystack, only the haystack would be the size of a planet. The logic behind this usage of high “Cycle Thresholds” as a way to detect as many cases as possible was apparently aimed at fighting a pandemic by detecting as many vulnerable people as possible, even if an overwhelming number of those positive individuals were “false positives” in medical terms.



The question does come, are the coronavirus cases overblown? The headline number indicates millions of cases.

And the data from NY clearly shows that 95% of CFR is in persons >50 years. https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus-ny/

sampat
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sampat » 11 Feb 2021 03:13

is there any data on safety of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. My father have epilepsy, high bp, COPD bcos of smoking, diabetes and headaches quite often. Most probably he will be given Pfizer shot(we live in EU).

can any learned member tell if is it safe for him to get vaccinated? he has been staying at home since last year.
Two years back he also had a severe headache after taking seasonal flu vaccine.

Is there any pretest that can determine if person could get severe side effects? We are worried after hearing stories about vaccine causing severe side effects and death in some cases.

DavidD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 11 Feb 2021 03:20

disha wrote:5Forty3 Published a long retrospective on 2020. Here is the URL 2020 Explained

Using a swab, a lab technician collects RNA from an individual’s nasal cavity. This RNA is then Reverse Transcribed into DNA. Then, through Polymerase Chain Reaction, specific sequences of genetic codes that are characteristically present in COVID virus are first identified and then amplified because invariably the viral genetic code in any sample would be very tiny. PCR essentially amplifies that tiny bit of genetic code in a series of cycles over and over again, until there is enough code that can be detected in a laboratory – this is a standard procedure for PCR tests across a wide spectrum of diagnostic measures. Simple logic then follows that higher the traces of virus in a sample, lesser are the number of cycles of amplification that are needed to detect a virus. The number of “Cycles” (of amplification) needed to detect a viral genetic code is known as “Cycle Threshold” or CT. A CT of 17 – which is 17 cycles of amplification of a viral genetic code – is generally considered as a gold standard in the PCR testing universe. The higher the CT, the greater the risk that insignificant sequences of viral DNA end up being magnified to the point that the test reads positive even if your viral load is extremely low or the virus is inactive and poses no threat to you or anyone else. It was universally accepted that any PCR test with more than 35 cycles is scientifically indefensible. Indeed, as recently as September of 2020, a study in Clinical Infectious Diseases done by eight Oxford scientists showed with utmost clarity that when you run a PCR test at a CT of 35 or more, the accuracy levels drop to 3%, resulting in a mindboggling 97% false positive rate!

Yet, WHO in its infinite wisdom, recommended RT-PCR tests for COVID-19 detection with a CT set at 45. In the US, the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) and the CDC (Centres for Disease Control & Prevention) recommended running PCR tests at a CT of 40. The world over, including here in India, the RT-PCR test regime for COVID-19 has been set at an average of 35 or more. If the CT were to be set at say 17 (or even maybe under 25), then detecting real COVID cases would have been like looking for a needle in a haystack, only the haystack would be the size of a planet. The logic behind this usage of high “Cycle Thresholds” as a way to detect as many cases as possible was apparently aimed at fighting a pandemic by detecting as many vulnerable people as possible, even if an overwhelming number of those positive individuals were “false positives” in medical terms.



The question does come, are the coronavirus cases overblown? The headline number indicates millions of cases.

And the data from NY clearly shows that 95% of CFR is in persons >50 years. https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus-ny/


The issue with using a lower CT is that while we can more accurately tell which patient is infectious, we have no way of knowing if the patient is at the beginning of the disease and is on his way to becoming infectious, or if he's on the mends. Suppose you're contact tracing or simply screening (many hospitals in the states are testing all admitted patients), getting a negative with a lower CT in someone who's early in the disease and is on his way to becoming infectious could potentially expose a lot of people later on. With that said, I think based on current evidence, using a lower CT to accurately tell if someone is still infectious after recovering from COVID seems like a reasonable thing to do.

IndraD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 11 Feb 2021 03:23

sampat wrote:is there any data on safety of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. My father have epilepsy, high bp, COPD bcos of smoking, diabetes and headaches quite often. Most probably he will be given Pfizer shot(we live in EU).

can any learned member tell if is it safe for him to get vaccinated? he has been staying at home since last year.
Two years back he also had a severe headache after taking seasonal flu vaccine.

Is there any pretest that can determine if person could get severe side effects? We are worried after hearing stories about vaccine causing severe side effects and death in some cases.

so far Pfizer has been denied only to those who carry adrenaline injections for allergy or have suffered severe allergy in the past to antibiotics/nuts etc. Several people who had hay fever (severe category) also have recd Pfizer vaccine without complications.
Your father has COPD and other comorbidities, it makes him vulnerable to severity of covid & he should be given a vaccine against it, which ever is available in your area.
At end of day, any treatment in medicine is given on basis of risk vs benefit and in this case benefit outweighs risks.
Besides someone with h/o headaches is likely to get them even without vaccine, it is difficult to differentiate the causative agent.
Is there any assurance headache will not happen with Oxford or Moderna? So please go ahead for the vaccine and best wishes for your father.
Last edited by IndraD on 11 Feb 2021 03:26, edited 1 time in total.

IndraD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby IndraD » 11 Feb 2021 03:25


however same Israel published editorial that one dose of Pfizer unable to prevent covid infection, after which UK govt has preponed 3 months interval to asap, now.

DavidD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DavidD » 11 Feb 2021 03:29

sampat wrote:is there any data on safety of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. My father have epilepsy, high bp, COPD bcos of smoking, diabetes and headaches quite often. Most probably he will be given Pfizer shot(we live in EU).

can any learned member tell if is it safe for him to get vaccinated? he has been staying at home since last year.
Two years back he also had a severe headache after taking seasonal flu vaccine.

Is there any pretest that can determine if person could get severe side effects? We are worried after hearing stories about vaccine causing severe side effects and death in some cases.


How old is your father? Here's a link to the data Pfizer presented to the US FDA. Page 33 onward has the safety data. Note that the cutoff age for the phase 1 (purely safety analysis) is 85 and only 4.3% of the patients in phase 2/3 are above 75 years old.

https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download

Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee December 10, 2020 Meeting Briefing Document- FDA (the 1.13mb file)


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