Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Tanaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

I think the author does not realise the nuances in India. GoI does not have the latitude that PoTUS does in making funds available. Secondly apart from CAG breathing down the neck, the opposition is going to make something out of nothing. Two examples are of the coffin affair with George Fernandes where emergency purchases were done and many cases were floated for political purposes. Second one is more recent where GoI expedited Phase 3 trials of BB vaccine by giving emergency dispensation only to be criticised by the usual toadies.

I suspect GoI has supported everyone indirectly by making sure permits, raw materials and logistics get done. Should it have opened the financial tap? I think it has but it followed another approach. It has concentrated on vaccine distribution and making it available for all. The feat it has done is no small one and we have a relatively hassle free and centrally tracked method of vaccination. Very few have done it similar to us and none at this scale.
Thakur_B
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Thakur_B »

Office had a 4th massive outbreak of Covid. I managed to escape unscathed from the previous three but looks like this one has got me and everyone. In a matter of a few hours I have developed fever exceeding 102F. Went out to buy medicines and give test samples. Looks like even zinc supplements are in short supply.
chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

manjgu wrote:
vera_k wrote:
Cannot be known without more specifics on how they operate. A lot of manufacturing tends to involve waiting for something or the other, so doesn't surprise me if the output is lower.

What we know is that Parliament was told that SII can make 70-100 million doses/month.

Manufacturing capacity of Covishield 70-100 MM doses per month, Covaxin 150MM doses per year: DBT
5000 pm was said by poonawalla himself.. then some time back there was a news report that SII reducing production ( not related to fire) ..dont know whats going on really.


the amerikis have reportedly throttled the export of some critical APIs required for vaccine production due to their own domestic considerations and this has significantly affected production here in India.

pfizer is also playing dirty as usual. In this crisis, they are trying to blackmail countries to allow Pfizer vaccines unimpeded market access to vaccinate locals and are seeking legal immunity against all legal claims and are demanding sovereign guarantees from governments to protect their company from any and all claims of malpractice. They are demanding for assets like army bases, ports and other infrastructure to be pledged to international financial agencies so that that money can be used to indemnify pfizer against all claims that may arise even in the future.

the amerikis seem to be very cut up with the vaccine diplomacy as done by Modi and their big pharma has lost a large portion of the market.

The initial production surge in India and the stockpiles that India had accumulated had to be exported because of their limited shelf lives.

This is what led to Modi giving away so much of the vaccines because India could not use them up to vaccinate her own people in the remaining storage time, due to infrastructure issues and our own roll out plans.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by manjgu »

Tanaji wrote:I think the author does not realise the nuances in India. GoI does not have the latitude that PoTUS does in making funds available. Secondly apart from CAG breathing down the neck, the opposition is going to make something out of nothing. Two examples are of the coffin affair with George Fernandes where emergency purchases were done and many cases were floated for political purposes. Second one is more recent where GoI expedited Phase 3 trials of BB vaccine by giving emergency dispensation only to be criticised by the usual toadies.

I suspect GoI has supported everyone indirectly by making sure permits, raw materials and logistics get done. Should it have opened the financial tap? I think it has but it followed another approach. It has concentrated on vaccine distribution and making it available for all. The feat it has done is no small one and we have a relatively hassle free and centrally tracked method of vaccination. Very few have done it similar to us and none at this scale.
this was a ideal case of PPP ... GOI could also have made a substantial return on its investments?? 400 -500 M USD is chicken feed for GOI.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

The covid situation seems set to take a turn for the worse before it will get better. It's going to be a tense few months. I hope I am wrong.
chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

Too many patients of age group 17-35 years are coming with severe COVID, 70-80% lung involvement. No comorbidities. It’s quite scary. We need to vaccinate EVERYONE to avert a situation like Brazil. For those who don’t know what’s happening there, see this.
via@amitsurg
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Indian panel gives emergency approval for Russia's Sputnik V vaccine - sources

Dr. Reddy's were the first ones to bet on Sputnik V. I hope like SII, they also started manufacturing the vaccine without waiting for approval. I couldn't find any details on DRL's production of the vaccine in the public domain.

Another news about Covaxin:

Bharat Biotech Likely to Increase Covaxin Production to 12 Million Doses Per Month by July: Report
Bharat Biotech is likely to increase the production of its Covid-19 vaccine, Covaxin, to 12 million doses from the current 5 million per month, it was reported on Monday.

At this point, I believe there is still a lot of hesitancy among Indians to take the vaccine. Even though the govt. has created a facility to vaccinate more than 5 million a day, we are far below that.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

Image
nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Read some horror stories about victim of this Chinese virus.

A family of husband and wife in mid 30s on ventilor. Their parents in icu. 18 months old child is left with the neighbours. Horrible stuff.

The virus knocked out the entire family.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

The WhatsApp forward is a pile of garbage. That’s to be expected because it’s a WhatsApp forward . No data with reference, nothing. Just a loud conclusion and everything else to support that conclusion. Please don’t post such garbage here.
Uttam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Here are some very interesting details about ramping vaccine production in India:
Even as Covid vaccine demand rises, firms may take some week to up production
Serum Institute, with a monthly capacity to produce 60-70 million doses, will increase production to nearly 100 million next month.
While it (SII) has supplied about 100 million doses so far for domestic use, this could cumulatively rise to about 450 million by August
Bharat Biotech is looking to more than double production – from the current 200,000 doses a day to 500,000 by next month
Bharat Biotech: 150 million doses ready by July-August.

850 million Sputnik V doses to be manufactured in India, of which about half are earmarked for local consumption.
ZyCov-D expected to be rolled out by July
Just between SII and BB, there will be about 600 million doses by August, enough to vaccinate 1/2 the population as well as most adults. Probably, another 50-100 million between Sputnik V, Zycov-D, J&J, etc. we will have plenty of vaccines over the next two months.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Ambar »

What is disappointing are not the vaccination numbers, everyone knows in a country as diverse and populated as India, the sheer scalability will be a challenge and yet we have done a commendable job. What is disappointing however is that it is mid-April and many cities are already reporting shortage of o2,Remdesivir and ventilators. Any general practitioner with experience could have predicted the increase in flu cases from March to Aug and yet the hospitals that charge Rs 1 lakh/day for covid patients now reporting shortage of Remdesivir, o2, ICUs shows pure negligence and callousness nothing else.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

The story about the entire family being the victim is from CEO of Surana hospital in Mumbai, who was arranging medicine for them.

https://mobile.twitter.com/drprincedsur ... 4531677185
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

I see a few despondent posts here about the vaccination campaign in India. Let me state this categorically, India has done a phenomenal job. The private sector was agile to grab the opportunity to manufacture, do research, etc. the vaccine. The Govt. sector has a very systematic plan to address the vaccination needs of the most vulnerable first, and then spread it for the rest.

Before people start complaining about how well it has been going for India, please look where India stands in the world as measured by GDP per capita. We are still in the bottom half (ranked 122 out of 188 by IMF). Yet, we have been able to give our 100 million plus doses of the vaccine. We ranked 72 out of 150 nations as per NYT tracker. If we only look at large nations with populations of more than 100 million, I am sure we will be one of the top performers (again don't forget where we stand in terms of income and wealth: $7333 GDP per capita ppp adjusted.)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

One variable I have not yet been able to clearly establish is the impact of the Jan 21 fire at SII on their production. At first. Adar Poonawalla said it affected only BCG and rotavirus vaccine production.

There was no immediate hit to Covishield production either in their statements or in terms of actual supply so far. However, in at least one interview, Poonawalla mentioned one or more factors that delayed the readiness of 100m/month capacity from April to June, and I think the fire was one of them. The government can give them the money they seek upfront, but there's a limit as to how fast facilities can be built in place of something damaged in this manner.

The positive here is that SII has continuously managed to deliver at 60m/month for a few months now, without Q&A issues that have plagued Emergent Biosolutions in US, which discarded 25m doses and is now evaluating another 62m for contamination.

Data shows that India has stabilized at approximately 3.6 million vaccinations per day. During every phase so far, India shows a ramp up period where the per-day performance rises, then stabilizes. That stabilizing point now is 3.6 million a day. In previous phases it was known that supply exceeded demand and that the stabilizing point was determined by how many people were showing up. Now this 3.5 million point is more interesting because it appears that this point supply and demand are finely balanced.

Meanwhile, GoI has banned all 7 Indian entities who have licensing agreements with Gilead from exporting either APIs or production Remdesivir until further notice.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Near 30 Lakh doses given on Day 1 of TIKA UTSAV pushes Cumulative Coverage to 10.45 crore
Today marks Day-2 of the countrywide Tika Utsav. The cumulative number of COVID19 vaccine doses administered in the country has crossed 10.45 Cr today.

Cumulatively, 10,45,28,565 vaccine doses have been administered through 15,56,361 sessions, as per the provisional report till 7 am today. These include 90,13,289 HCWs who have taken the 1st dose and 55,24,344 HCWs who have taken the 2nd dose, 99,96,879 FLWs (1stdose), 47,95,756 FLWs (2nddose), 4,05,30,321 1st dose beneficiaries and 19,42,705 2nd dose beneficiaries more than 60 years old and 3,20,46,911 (1st dose) and 6,78,360 (2nd dose) beneficiaries aged 45 to 60.

Nearly 30 lakh vaccination doses were administered yesterday, on Day 1 of Tika Utsav.

Day 1 of the countrywide Tika Utsav saw 63,800 Covid Vaccination Centres (CVCs) operational, which is a rise of an average of 18,800 operational CVCs. Most CVCs were operational in the private work places. Additionally, despite being a Sunday, which generally witnesses lower vaccination numbers, the first day of Tika Utsav clocked nearly 30 lakh vaccination doses.

As on Day-86 of the vaccination drive (11th April, 2021), 29,33,418 vaccine doses were given. Out of which, 27,01,439 beneficiaries were vaccinated across 38,398 sessions for 1st dose and 2,31,979 beneficiaries received 2nd dose of vaccine.

In terms of the number of daily doses administered globally, India continues to remain at the top with an average of 40,55,055 doses administered per day. The corresponding figure yesterday was 38,34,574.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

First day of Tika Utsav was Sunday, when 2.9 million vaccinations were done.

Day 2 8pm information is available now:
3.76 million vaccinations up to 8pm Monday, cumulative total 108.2 million

* A total 95 million have gotten first dose now. 13 million have gotten 2 doses.
* 42 million >60 people have gotten at least one dose now
* 34 million 45-60 year old people have gotten at least one dose now
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

I am hoping they cross the 5m a day mark by tomorrow morning.
chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

adar poonawalla wants the govt to give him a grant of 3000 crores to ramp up production of vaccines


Image
chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

SII CEO #AdarPoonawalla said that SII requires around Rs 3,000 crore to ramp up #COVID vaccine production in #India as vaccines were being given at highly subsidised rates at the request of the Modi govt.
via@TheQuint

I think that it should be given to SII and later subject to a CAG audit to verify proper utilization.
chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

IndiaToday@IndiaToday·Apr 8

US, Europe holding back critical raw material needed for Covid vaccine production: SII CEO Adar Poonawalla.



US, Europe holding back critical raw material needed for Covid vaccine production: SII CEO Adar Poonawalla
Last edited by chetak on 12 Apr 2021 23:06, edited 1 time in total.
Zynda
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Image
Sample size is very small but I do believe the observation is not far off...
Atmavik
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

Thakur_B wrote:Office had a 4th massive outbreak of Covid. I managed to escape unscathed from the previous three but looks like this one has got me and everyone. In a matter of a few hours I have developed fever exceeding 102F. Went out to buy medicines and give test samples. Looks like even zinc supplements are in short supply.
Thakur saab,


you will get better. keep drinking fluids and check O2 levels. day 5- 8 are cruicial. i got it a few months ago and recovered in 10 days. wishing u all the best.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

chetak wrote:adar poonawalla wants the govt to give him a grant of 3000 crores to ramp up production of vaccines


Image
That is $40 mil ... Come on! Give him what he wants ... Why are we even thinking?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

^^^ GoI needs to call one of the PSU banks and ask them to give SII a loan. when we can give loans to crooks surely this effort needs a loan
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Rs.3000 cr is $400 million, not 40. But yes GOI should invest upfront since these costs are immediate. Higher per dose costs will not make up for incremental rapid capacity expansion costs.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Suraj wrote:Rs.3000 cr is $400 million, not 40. But yes GOI should invest upfront since these costs are immediate. Higher per dose costs will not make up for incremental rapid capacity expansion costs.
yep ... sorry ... even 400 mil is peanuts. Lets build that capacity
arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

chetak wrote:Image
So much for random blogs shared on whatsapp complaining that GoI didn't fund anything.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

#COVID19 - Outbreak In India
@outbreak_india
·
Apr 12
#LargestVaccineDrive

Day 87: India #vaccination update on 12-Apr till 8 PM

Day2 of #TikaUtsav Thumbs up

SyringeTotal Doses: 10,82,92,423 Up-pointing triangle 37,63,858

SyringeDose1: 9,48,48,113 Up-pointing triangle 32,60,713
SyringeDose2: 1,34,44,310 Up-pointing triangle 5,03,145

Explore more at https://outbreakindia.com/vaccination
Hope it crosses 5 mil tomorrow morning
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 040136.cms

Both Covishield (Oxford) & COVAXIN effective against UK & SA variant of Chinese virus. Luckily Brazil variant rare in India.
disha
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

I do want to point out couple of articles that have appeared and needs to be read in full.

First one, https://www.opindia.com/2021/04/why-ind ... na-trials/

In nutshell, Pfizer asked for military bases and federal reserves from Argentina and Brazil as collateral. That is, Pfizer wants to become the new British East India Company. A company with its own army.

And the rabid anti-Indian mediapimps want GOI to give all waivers to Pfizer. This is big money at play and for few 1000s of dollars (salt on the peanuts for Pfizer and other western pharma companies) several of mediapimps and their assorted left-liberandus will be happy to be hamaam mein nange (strip naked in bathroom).

Second one, is even more telling https://newrepublic.com/article/162000/ ... d-vaccines

In nutshell it shows how the global pharma aided by Bill Gates is playing footsie with world's health by withholding intellectual property on vaccines and germ lines.

I do have to point out, from my perspective GOI not providing a blank check to SII or BB is good. The money, even $4 million or $400 million or $40 million is public money. As a representative of public (constitutionally elected for example), it is very much within the right of that representative to ensure that money is well spent. For example, for the duration of the pandemic, GOI may ask that all IPR related to coronavirus vaccine be placed in a public trust.

An example within the above would be a germ line. A germ line can be put in public trust. If you have ability to make vaccine using that germ line, you can approach the GOI, give a nominal fee and start manufacturing. Once the pandemic is over, you can start giving royalty.

Above are just some examples. Point is, GOI cannot create a monopoly which will later crowed out genuine competitors without appropriate checks and balances.

That is, if there is a blank check from GOI, it better come with a strong string attached.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

IMO it is a valid observation that GoI placed orders later than other governments, and therefore some funding that could be used by the private companies was not available. Something similar is often seen for defense orders in the military thread.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by a_bharat »

I wish GoI comes out with tele-medicine protocols and mandates the hospitals to provide tele-medicine support to almost all the patients and admit only severely ill patients (ones requiring ventillator support) to the hospitals. In most other cases, they can prescribe medicines (the list has become more or less standard by now). Oxygen support can also be provided at home (with some guidance from hospital, remotely). There are Oxygen concentrators available starting from Rs. 40,000, providing a flow rate of upto 5L/m. If we are going to face an acute shortage of beds for Covid patients, Governments have to improvise.

Also, an average middle class family will easily get bankrupted if a family member is to be get admitted to hospital for Covid treatment.
Last edited by a_bharat on 13 Apr 2021 10:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

Is SII asking for a grant or a loan or a combination of both?
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

vera_k wrote:IMO it is a valid observation that GoI placed orders later than other governments, and therefore some funding that could be used by the private companies was not available. Something similar is often seen for defense orders in the military thread.
This 'ordering' thing is misunderstood. The dynamics of commercial orders involving Pfizer etc and US/EU governments, vs SII in India is very different. Pfizer needed upfront orders and payments to commence. In comparison SII had 40 million doses of Covishield produced by mid/late November before ANYONE had approved any vaccine. The AZ vaccine was approved only late December and by then they added another 50 million production. By end of March they had produced 270 million doses. They literally bet their house on this - and the gamble worked. There's no way Pfizer etc would ever do that - with them it's cash upfront. They have a stock price and executive bonuses to worry about first.

In the US, all vaccine producers together pledged 240 million doses by end March, but failed due to production issues.

That is the reality. SII in a single site outproduced the entire US to end March. They gambled heavily to help build an early stockpile, enabling orders to be made when the government felt it right to do so, and yet supplies could be made immediately available without a large lead time. SII overleveraged themselves in a gamble for which the government owes them a favor to help them by giving them what they need to scale up further.

Monday total 4.01 million, cumulatively 108.5 million.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

nandakumar wrote:Is SII asking for a grant or a loan or a combination of both?
It makes no difference the ultimate analysis.

However, if the funds are short they can issue Debentures, Corporate Bonds, or offer a stock split, as well.

Not sure why they haven't.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

a_bharat wrote:I wish GoI comes out with tele-medicine protocols and mandates the hospitals to provide tele-medicine support to almost all the patients and admit only severely ill patients (ones requiring ventillator support) to the hospitals. In most other cases, they can prescribe medicines (the list has become more or less standard by now). Oxygen support can also be provided at home (with some guidance from hospital, remotely). There are Oxygen concentrators available starting from Rs. 40,000, providing a flow rate of upto 5L/m. If we are going to face an acute shortage of beds for Covid patients, Governments have to improvise.

Also, an average middle class family will easily get bankrupted if a family member is to be get admitted to hospital for Covid treatment.
^ +1. Excellent points Bharat'ji. Given my personal (albiet via my maternal uncle's) experience I realize how important it is now. I totally support the telemedicine protocols. It will help remote corners, dense & poor population centers etc. One just have to take portable x-rays (or CT Scanners as suggested by others) and maybe even a portable mini-diagnostic center. Why bring patient to the bed, instead bring medical aid to the patient.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

Pratyush wrote:
nandakumar wrote:Is SII asking for a grant or a loan or a combination of both?
It makes no difference the ultimate analysis.

However, if the funds are short they can issue Debentures, Corporate Bonds, or offer a stock split, as well.

Not sure why they haven't.
Fair enough. Would like to mention an additional information. Poonawala's investment arm acquired in February, a 60% stake in an NBFC in a deal valued at Rs 3.600 crore. Then in March he acquired a small stake in Policy Bazaar, a financial advisory cum technology platform. The percentage of acquision is not known. But the business itself is worth roughly Rs 20,000 crore.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Pratyush wrote:However, if the funds are short they can issue Debentures, Corporate Bonds, or offer a stock split, as well.
Funds can be raised if orders are expected and with a reasonable rate of return. If orders and price is not known, it is difficult and more expensive to secure funds. Not sure if even a PSU like LIC or UTI would be able to invest without some certainty.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

vera_k wrote:
Pratyush wrote:However, if the funds are short they can issue Debentures, Corporate Bonds, or offer a stock split, as well.
Funds can be raised if orders are expected and with a reasonable rate of return. If orders and price is not known, it is difficult and more expensive to secure funds. Not sure if even a PSU like LIC or UTI would be able to invest without some certainty.
so we seriously expect a completely privately owned company to provide freebies, disregard a global business model typical of their industry, take all the risk, and support the govt and the public just because some joker in the Govt asked nicely.

piss or get off the pot.

support SII or free them of all pricing controls and let them go their way to market and export where they will or

pay them a commercial price or help them set up infrastructure and pre order hundreds of millions of doses as an assured business to mitigate their risk.

If SII is expected to raise funds by itself, then say so and at least provide a sovereign guarantee for the loan.

why is it to be all at their risk, with their money, and for your benefit. Why

If you are serious about the atmanirbhar thing, then help out this totally Indian owned company to help you..

this chit bhi meri, pat bhi meri aur sikka mere baap ka days are long over.

we have just realized that this vaccine manufacturing business is as strategic a vital global business as the manufacturing of micro chips.

this is the ideal time to ramp up and also set up in country manufacturing for all the essential APIs

amerikis, the EU and china, by restricting the exports of covid vaccines and the required APIs have weaponized the entire vaccine industry and the ancilliary supply chains for the APIs.

pfizer, by their blatant blackmail of countries, have shown what can be done in the name of muscular marketing for "assured" market access.

Why don't we see the vaccines for what they really are: Undeniably, they are the new defense against new WMDs.

The chinese, by releasing the wuhan virus have demonstrated what profound devastation can be wrought globally in such a short period of time and the unexpected self spreading nature of the many mutations that are generated that is increasingly becoming harder to control and defend against

So, effectively, they have added another weapon of global reach to their arsenal and it is undeniably a WMD of a better and a more innovative design because it leaves the infrastructure intact and undamaged.
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