Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[Kakkaji]

India to receive Sputnik V vaccine doses this month: TASS cites Indian Ambassador

India's ambassador to Moscow said deliveries of Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine to India were expected to begin before the end of April, the TASS news agency reported, after Indian regulators approved the shot for use on Monday.

Russia has signed several major vaccine production deals with Indian manufacturers, and India is expected to become a hub for production of the shot. This is expected to begin in May, Ambassador Bala Venkatesh Varma was cited by TASS as saying.

[ManSingh]

Anecdotal evidence that vaccinations are helping. Several age 60+ friends & family are discharged from hospital and back home this week. All had received 1 dose last month.

You are right.. Vaccines definitly help in preventing severe disease..

Yes they do. My parents received covaxin first dose on March 15. My mother tested positive on April 2nd. Several risk factors, age and heart trouble ( beta blocker ). Was uncomfortable for a few days but seems to be on path to recovery from the past 3 days. Oxygen levels were always good.
Dad tested negative initially. But has been showing mild symptoms for the past 3 days. Hopefully it will stay mild and pass too.
I would root cause the ( thank fully) medium impact to vaccination.

[IndraD]

we hardly saved any patient who got intubated ventilated from severe covid last year, but recently 2 patients came with severe covid but one dose vaccinated (Oxford). Both got extubated in 3-4 days and discharged to ward . vaccines work.

[Sumeet]

I am hearing that Covid tests are coming negative despite people actually being positive. Has the rate of false negatives gone up ? Is this because of new variants ?

[Primus]

Anybody has information on the current situation in different states? Getting a lot of WA forwards with doom and gloom stories about people dying and gross under reporting esp by BJP states?

The MOHFW site is claimed to have incorrect data due to the above and the public site covid19.org info is countered by individuals reporting sensational stuff from Bhopal and other places. There is so much FUD being spread it is unbelievable.

- Situation in MH is very bad in metro cities like Pune, Mumbai, Nagpur.. Availability of beds is close to zero.. Oxygen supply from distributers is unreliable.. We have to contact so many suppliers daily to get few oxygen cylinders.. Number of enquiries I receive daily for Oxygen beds and ventilaters is at least 10 times last wave.. A friend started Covid facility two days back and it was full within six hours..

- Fortunately many of my friends practicing in peripheral districts have noticed steady decline in covid pts since last week..Hope this trend continues..But I personally feel that this wave will last at least three more months..

- I dont think Govt is hiding data of deaths on purpose.. But I know many people living in my paternal village who died of covid like illness.. I enquired about reason of not doing testing or treatment.. They simply said everyone in family gets infected simulteneously and due to severe fatigue, muscle pain associated with this strain ,there is nobody to take them to city for testing and treatment.. Most hospitals in city are already overburdeoned.. This might be one of the reason of under reporting..

- Steroids like MPS and dexa are playing big role in controlling symptoms and overall progression of disease.. Remdesivir is at best supportive and does not appear to improve mortality .. Fabiflu doesnt seem to work more than placebo this time..

- Its my humble advise to everyone going for vaccination that they should take all possible precautions to avoid getting infection at vaccination centers.. I know few people who most likely contracted virus in hospital while getting vaccinated..

Thank you Dr. Ratnadip Ji.

I never believed Remdesivir had any efficacy, yet in India a relative told me they had to buy it in black last week. The tragedy of COVID has been that while it has decimated whole families and groups of people, it has also made a lot of people a lot of money.

At this time the ONLY way we can protect ourselves and our loved ones is with the vaccine, this is what I tell my patients every day, I routinely ask everyone if they have been 'safe' and if they have been vaccinated. Unfortunately many are antivaxers. It is an unbelievable but true fact that more than half of the nurses in our surgery center have not taken the vaccine yet, they come up with various excuses when asked why. In New York you cannot force anyone.

And once you get the vaccine, you STILL continue with all the measures you did before the vaccine. Masks, hand hygiene and social distancing when in public places. Too many people forget this.

[chetak]

we hardly saved any patient who got intubated ventilated from severe covid last year, but recently 2 patients came with severe covid but one dose vaccinated (Oxford). Both got extubated in 3-4 days and discharged to ward . vaccines work.

but both remdesivir and plasma do not seem to be working as well as many had hoped and predicted they would

[Sumeet]

^^ Pfizer vaccine at ₹1500? With all its onerous logistical challenges? Surely you must be joking sir.

Got idea from here: (On reading again I think I got subsidy mixed with actual price which will be paid for Pfizer drug)

https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/indias-co ... rong-again

The subsidies involved ($20 for Pfizer versus $2-3 for Covishield and Covaxin) would simply not have flown past an opposition ever keen to allege that the private sector made money at the country’s cost. The same issue also makes it difficult for the government to quickly and fully fund the expansion plans of the Serum Institute of India (SII) and Bharat Biotech.

On second thought if $20 is from Govt and we have to pay $20-$30 additionally many people in Tier 1 & 2 cities of India can afford.Perhaps Suraj can specify what will be ball park cost of Pfizer vaccine. If you see Covid cases are highest in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities of India. If we can vaccinate maximum number of people there that will be great asset in fight against Covid.

[vijayk]

[Suraj]

There's nothing special about Pfizer in India's context. In the case of EU, it is one of the two vaccines they actually have access to, thanks to their own shenanigans with AZ (Covishield). So access to Pfizer is a life and death matter there, but not in India - we have multiple alternatives that are or will be available soon enough to matter . Pfizer will not .

Pfizer or Moderna will at best be available in late summer or autumn. Why ? Because that's how long it takes. US gets a minimum 300 million doses by July. EU signed 2 deals with Pfizer for 300 million vaccines each, and they're very badly delayed on getting just the first batch. They are due to get only 40% of their original Q1 deliveries. Pfizer is prioritizing US deliveries, then EU, then elsewhere.

Whatever it's going to cost is not an important question right now since it's a long way away from being available and will have absolutely nothing to do with the current wave. GoI will not subsidize it when it has access to much cheaper locally produced alternatives. It might be a full priced alternative available as a choice months from now when cumulatively monthly production is over 200m doses, which will translate to well over 5m/day capability to perform vaccination on the general population.

[Thakur_B]

I am hearing that Covid tests are coming negative despite people actually being positive. Has the rate of false negatives gone up ? Is this because of new variants ?

Yes, this is true. Friend's father reported negative 3 times with RT PCR, finally confirmed with CT Scan. Later on friend would also show symptoms but negative RT PCR test. There was a newspaper clipping which stated that up to a quarter of cases are now false negative.

[Manas]

Pfizer or Moderna will at best be available in late summer or autumn. Why ? Because that's how long it takes. US gets a minimum 300 million doses by July. EU signed 2 deals with Pfizer for 300 million vaccines each, and they're very badly delayed on getting just the first batch. They are due to get only 40% of their original Q1 deliveries. Pfizer is prioritizing US deliveries, then EU, then elsewhere.

One potential option that GOI could explore (even though it may prove a little controversial in the current circumstances that J & J finds itself in with the FDA/CDC "pause" in the U.S.) is to see if J & J can supply 10M+ doses within the next 3-4 weeks. While they have had significant production problems the fact that they are paused, IMO will crater demand for their product (both in U.S. and EU) even/when the "pause" is lifted. Plus the U.S. is nearing the point of vaccine oversupply within the next 3-4 weeks (approx 260M people >16 years with 600M doses of mRNA vaccines contracted and a % of the 260M will NOT take vaccines). So J & J vaccines will most probably be donated by the U.S. to other countries if the FDA/CDC pause is lifted. Perhaps J & J now would be more willing to strike a deal with GOI to ship some of their supplies that will continue to build up over the next 2-3 weeks. Despite the problems/issues at the Baltimore plant J & J as of last week was insisting they can/will still finish their 100M dose commitment to the U.S. by end of June.

While the clot issues need to be taken seriously - statistically speaking it seems to be within the norm for what we are seeing with all other vaccines. Earlier today, I saw an article attributed to the Oxford study that suggested that Pfizer/Moderna recipients have reported blood clots (unclear if they are directly linked to the vaccine of if it is just the normal statistical happening within a particular population %). For some reason there doesnt seem to be much media follow up or sensationalism around adverse effects from those two vaccines.

While I am not one that gives in easily to conspiracy theories - based on some of the Pfizer press releases and behavior for ex.

1. Timing of their phase 3 results (just after the Nov 3rd elections even though they seem to have had the data 2 weeks before the elections).

2. Back in December when they were directly contradicting the Trump admin and Gen. Perna/Operation warp speed (implying that they have "plenty" of supplies lying around and the Trump admin was incompetent with distribution) I tend to believe Mr. Albert Bourla is firmly in bed with the Dem Deep state players. Contrast his behavior after Mr. Biden took over where he was giving "glowing" accounts of how great the Biden admin is to partner with. In reality pretty much all the supply surge we are seeing in the U.S. was pretty much in the plan going back to late last year and Mr. Biden's admin exercised the "options" on the additional 200M doses that warp speed had "reserved" the rights for (while confirming 400M doses of assured, contracted supply).

So in essence my theory is that Pfizer is probably feeding the media narrative casting aspersions on the safety aspects of all competitive "cheaper" western developed vaccine alternatives including AZ and J & J. May be J & J will become desperate enough to salvage their vaccine with mass supplies to Lower/Middle income countries in Asia and Africa.

On a side note - Dr. Fauci called the "remdesivir" phase 3 results as "game changing" literally at the oval office as he was getting ready to meet the then president Mr. Trump (while he and the FDA were dissing HCQ from day 1. Since then the WHO and data from many other countries/anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that Remdesivir is perhaps barely better than a Placebo.

The 2 therapeutics that seem to be helping save lives by managing both viral load reduction and cytokine storms are the Eli Lilly and Regeneron monoclonal antibodies (given early enough in the disease cycle) and old world anti-inflammatory drugs used for arthritis & sterioids such as dexamethasone. The FDA and Dr. Fauci have never ever countered the ton of real world data that seems to suggest that Remdesivir has made very little impact on saving lives. The U.S. alone has probably lost 400K+ people since Remdisivir was signed off by the FDA and Dr. Fauci called it a "game changer". Dr. Fauci has survived in the D.C swamp in his current role for 40+ years and is apparently the highest paid Federal govt employee ! Takes some degree of political skill to survive that long in D.C. beyond just being a good Doctor or a Scientist ! No wonder he seems to be talking, subtly tilting the scales for the Gilead's and Pfizer's of the world.

[Suraj]

J&J is welcome to submit their US EUA data and conduct bridging trials and anything else required of them according to the latest DCGI process guidelines. There's no point in offering special shortcuts to anyone. The barriers towards any vaccine supplier are not set by India here. It's their own personal actions that dictate that.

The rules have been clear for everyone. Early on when none of the vaccines had been tested widely, India insisted on full trials. Those who cleared them - Covishield, Covaxin and now Sputnik - all are able to supply in India. Now with 4-5 months of usage history and updated EUAs, there is greater regulatory clarity on how to accelerate vaccine clearances reasonably.

Pfizer tried to throw its weight around last year. They could have followed the rules like AZ, Sputnik and Covaxin all did, but no they overplayed their hand. Their own fault.

If J&J clear trials and offer their vaccine at or below the Sputnik cost they're likely to be competitive as a single dose alternative. If they start tomorrow, they're still about 1-1.5 months out at the earliest from supplying anything. By then India will have an additional 50-75m doses/month supply .

[RajD]

I am hearing that Covid tests are coming negative despite people actually being positive. Has the rate of false negatives gone up ? Is this because of new variants ?

Yes, this is true. Friend's father reported negative 3 times with RT PCR, finally confirmed with CT Scan. Later on friend would also show symptoms but negative RT PCR test. There was a newspaper clipping which stated that up to a quarter of cases are now false negative.

Quite contrary to this, I've a first hand report from an assistant of my close and influential acquaintance who along with his wife got admitted after testing positive for covid and undergoing CT scan procedure yesterday at Nanavati Hospital, Mumbai. According to that assistant who was at the hospital the entire day yesterday the situation there was the worst. Almost everyone, whether asymptomatic or not was getting positive report. The rumor mills were in full swing, the theme being the conspiracy that everyone was given positive report on purpose by the vested interests in order to push them into abyss of costly treatment.
I'm not at all refuting the claims of people getting false negative test repetitively, though.

[Primus]

While the clot issues need to be taken seriously - statistically speaking it seems to be within the norm for what we are seeing with all other vaccines. Earlier today, I saw an article attributed to the Oxford study that suggested that Pfizer/Moderna recipients have reported blood clots (unclear if they are directly linked to the vaccine of if it is just the normal statistical happening within a particular population %). For some reason there doesnt seem to be much media follow up or sensationalism around adverse effects from those two vaccines.

While I am not one that gives in easily to conspiracy theories - based on some of the Pfizer press releases and behavior for ex.

1. Timing of their phase 3 results (just after the Nov 3rd elections even though they seem to have had the data 2 weeks before the elections).

2. Back in December when they were directly contradicting the Trump admin and Gen. Perna/Operation warp speed (implying that they have "plenty" of supplies lying around and the Trump admin was incompetent with distribution) I tend to believe Mr. Albert Bourla is firmly in bed with the Dem Deep state players. Contrast his behavior after Mr. Biden took over where he was giving "glowing" accounts of how great the Biden admin is to partner with. In reality pretty much all the supply surge we are seeing in the U.S. was pretty much in the plan going back to late last year and Mr. Biden's admin exercised the "options" on the additional 200M doses that warp speed had "reserved" the rights for (while confirming 400M doses of assured, contracted supply).

So in essence my theory is that Pfizer is probably feeding the media narrative casting aspersions on the safety aspects of all competitive "cheaper" western developed vaccine alternatives including AZ and J & J. May be J & J will become desperate enough to salvage their vaccine with mass supplies to Lower/Middle income countries in Asia and Africa.

On a side note - Dr. Fauci called the "remdesivir" phase 3 results as "game changing" literally at the oval office as he was getting ready to meet the then president Mr. Trump (while he and the FDA were dissing HCQ from day 1. Since then the WHO and data from many other countries/anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that Remdesivir is perhaps barely better than a Placebo.

The FDA and Dr. Fauci have never ever countered the ton of real world data that seems to suggest that Remdesivir has made very little impact on saving lives. The U.S. alone has probably lost 400K+ people since Remdisivir was signed off by the FDA and Dr. Fauci called it a "game changer". Dr. Fauci has survived in the D.C swamp in his current role for 40+ years and is apparently the highest paid Federal govt employee ! Takes some degree of political skill to survive that long in D.C. beyond just being a good Doctor or a Scientist ! No wonder he seems to be talking, subtly tilting the scales for the Gilead's and Pfizer's of the world.

Here is the study on clots from COVID itself and from the other vaccines - specifically cerebral vein thrombosis. Summarized on another portal, basically this states:

The risk of developing cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) from COVID-19 was "many-fold" higher than from receiving the AstraZeneca/Oxford or the mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, researchers have concluded.

A preprint study by the University of Oxford found that from a dataset of over 500,000 COVID patients, CVT would have occurred in 39 per million people.

CVT has been reported to occur in about 5 per million people after a first dose of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine. In over 480,000 people receiving either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna mRNA vaccines, CVT occurred in 4 per million.

There is so much money involved in this game that it surprises nobody that Pfizer is playing the field to its advantage.

Fauci is a fraud, IMHO, he has flip-flopped so much that he is looking like the potato man. However, he is the darling of the morning TV news programs here and lay people tend to swear by him (instead of at him). I have not seen any evidence of Remdesivir doing any good, yet it is being promoted everywhere. The drug reps must be doing a fantastic job. Last year when the fear factor was so high, anything and everything was being thrown at the virus, so far I am not aware of ANY anti-viral that has proven itself although claims of Remdesivir of 'reducing' recovery time by 5 days on average are being promoted heavily by the drug maker.

[Primus]

Yes, this is true. Friend's father reported negative 3 times with RT PCR, finally confirmed with CT Scan. Later on friend would also show symptoms but negative RT PCR test. There was a newspaper clipping which stated that up to a quarter of cases are now false negative.

Quite contrary to this, I've a first hand report from an assistant of my close and influential acquaintance who along with his wife got admitted after testing positive for covid and undergoing CT scan procedure yesterday at Nanavati Hospital, Mumbai. According to that assistant who was at the hospital the entire day yesterday the situation there was the worst. Almost everyone, whether asymptomatic or not was getting positive report. The rumor mills were in full swing, the theme being the conspiracy that everyone was given positive report on purpose by the vested interests in order to push them into abyss of costly treatment.
I'm not at all refuting the claims of people getting false negative test repetitively, though.

There is a lot of variation in the way the nasal swab is being collected. For best results, you really need to sample both nostrils and go deep until the pharynx is touched, then twirl the swab several times. It is not that easy for people to tolerate and almost always brings tears to the eyes. Many nurses (typically these are the ones who take the samples) simply put the swab in the front part of the nose and call it a day. Some shove it up the nose in an upward direction whereas it should be placed directly perpendicular to the facial plane, aimed at the back of the skull, the shaft of the swab should be parallel to the floor. It is a common mistake among people to assume that any nasal tube (typically the naso-gastric tube used for feeding) should be pushed upwards. I have seen it inserted into the brain!

Even then, it is entirely possible that the patient has a very low volume or absent carriage of the virus in the posterior nasopharynx. Thus truly false negatives are definitely possible but I would not say that 25% are false negatives. That it just too high. False positives are also possible but more likely the result of contamination or wrongful labeling of samples.

[vijayk]

Adar Poonawalla
@adarpoonawalla
·
2h
Respected
@POTUS
, if we are to truly unite in beating this virus, on behalf of the vaccine industry outside the U.S., I humbly request you to lift the embargo of raw material exports out of the U.S. so that vaccine production can ramp up. Your administration has the details.

[vijayk]

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1712271

Ministry of Science & Technology
Augmentation of Manufacturing Capacity for COVAXIN production under Mission COVID Suraksha
Posted On: 16 APR 2021 5:01PM by PIB Delhi
Under Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0 Mission COVID Suraksha was announced by the Government of India, to accelerate the development and production of Indigenous COVID Vaccines. This is being implemented by Department of Biotechnology Govt of India.

Under the Mission the Department of Biotechnology Govt of India is providing financial support as Grant to vaccine manufacturing facilities for enhanced production capacities. The current production capacity of indigenously developed Covaxin vaccine will be doubled by May-June 2021 and then increased nearly 6-7 fold by July - August 2021 i.e increasing the production from 1 crore vaccine doses in April, 2021 to 6-7 crore vaccine dose/month in July – August. It is expected to reach nearly 10 crore doses per month by Sep 2021.

Few weeks back, Inter-ministerial teams had visited the sites of 2 main vaccine manufacturers in India to get their inputs on how production can be ramped up. In this period, there have been extensive reviews and feasibility studies on the plans being discussed with vaccine manufacturers.

As a part this augmentation plan, capacities of Bharat Biotech Limited, Hyderabad as well as other public sector manufactures are being upgraded with required infrastructure and technology. Financial support is being provided as grant from GoI to the tune of appx Rs 65 Cr to Bharat Biotech’s new Bangalore facility which is being repurposed to increase the capacity of vaccine production.

3 public sectors companies are also being supported to increase the capacity of vaccine production.

Haffkine Biopharmaceutical Corporation Ltd , Mumbai –a State PSE under State Govt of Maharashtra. Financial support as grant from GoI to the tune of appx Rs 65 Cr will be provided for this facility to be made ready for manufacturing.The Haffkine Biopharmaceuticals Ltd had asked for around 12 months to complete this task.However, the Central government has asked them to expedite and complete the task urgently within 6 months. The facility will have a capacity of 20 million dozes per month, once functional.


Indian Immunologicals Limited (IIL), Hyderabad –A facility under National Dairy Development Board and Bharat Immunologicals and Biologicals Limited (BIBCOL) , Bulandshahr a CPSE under Department of Biotechnology ,Govt of India will also be supported to prepare there facility to provide 10-15 million dozes per month by Aug - Sep 2021.
****

DS/AK



(Release ID: 1712271) Visitor Counter : 26

[Uttam]

The current production capacity of indigenously developed Covaxin vaccine will be doubled by May-June 2021 and then increased nearly 6-7 fold by July - August 2021 i.e increasing the production from 1 crore vaccine doses in April, 2021 to 6-7 crore vaccine dose/month in July – August. It is expected to reach nearly 10 crore doses per month by Sep 2021.

Covaxin production also depends on an adjuvant that comes from the US. How is the supply of that raw material being addressed? This article from Swarajyamag has the following details:

“The vaccine, which is tested on volunteers and gets approved, is made with this adjuvant. Therefore, any change to this would lead to fresh clinical trials and fresh approvals,” the source further added.

..........

However, in March the Hyderabad firm announced that it will work with the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) to develop technologies and platforms for novel vaccines, drugs and even raw material.

[Uttam]

Zydus’s Covid-19 vaccine to be for children too

Cadila Healthcare (also known as Zydus Cadila), which plans to roll out its much-awaited ZyCoV-D vaccine in second half of May or in June, will also be administered to children if all goes as planned, said two company officials in the know of the matter.

For the third generation DNA-based vaccine against Covid-19, Zydus has set up a production facility with capacity of 120- 150 million doses.

The results of Phase-3 trials are expected sometime in mid-May

[vijayk]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 102517.cms

[Ambar]

The reduction in part is because of covishield shortage. My mother is due for her 2nd dose, she's been to the hospital 2 days in a row now and has come back without getting vaccinated. Yesterday they were closed and today the district hospital said they are out of covishield as they are receiving less than a dozen vials daily, she'll be trying again tomorrow. Covaxin on the other hand seems to have no problems with supply, and it is no surprise that many hospitals have now switched to covaxin from covishield, where as last month it was the other way around.

Ambar ji,

Also try the municipal facilities for covishield. Look at multiple locations in your own locality and maybe, if needed by casting the net just a bit wider than that.

It might work out easier there.

She finally got her 2nd dose this morning on her third try. The district govt hospital only issued 140 tokens today for covishield and covaxin combined, they were done by 9.30 AM.

[Suraj]

Clearly the pipeline strengthens very significantly starting May/June, which is exactly what is needed because we have a 3-4 month buffer before our stockpile is depleted. It is very nice to see that the government has acted with alacrity here to address the matter and ensure that the ongoing rate of vaccinations can continue and even improve. Once supply is up above 150m doses a month, 5 million shots a day is possible.

[Mort Walker]

Suraj,

Looking at the numbers, it seems India is following the UK model of getting high numbers of initial vaccine doses and less on 2nd doses. Or people are unable or unwilling to get a 2nd dose.

102.35 million persons who received at least one dose
14.87 million persons fully vaccinated

I'm trying to understand this.

[Kakkaji]

COVID19 Vaccination-Day 91

More than 26.14 lakh vaccine doses given till 8 pm push Cumulative Vaccine Coverage to nearly 12 Cr doses

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1712356

The total vaccinations across the country have approached nearly 12 crore mark today with more than 26.14 lakh vaccine doses administered till 8 pm. Today, 66,689 COVID Vaccination Centres (CVCs) were operational, marking a rise of an average of 21,689 operational Vaccination Centres (45,000 CVCs on an average are functional on any given day). Workplace vaccinations have also enabled such a high turnout of beneficiaries.

The cumulative number of COVID19 vaccine doses administered in the country stands at 11,97,87,239 as per the 8 pm provisional report today.

These include 91,04,680 Healthcare Workers (HCWs) who have taken the 1st dose and 56,69,734 HCWs who have taken the 2nd dose, 1,06,58,497 Frontline Workers (FLWs) (1st dose), 52,94,889 FLWs (2nd dose), 3,96,39,132 for over 45 years old to 60 years old (1st Dose), 10,44,958 for over 45 years old to 60 years old (2nd dose), 4,48,99,446 for above 60 years (1st Dose) and 34,75,903 for above 60 years (2nd Dose) .

The daily vaccination numbers seem to be tapering off again.

Time, perhaps, to open vaccine eligibility to people 40+.

[Raja]

All this talk about expanding eligibility is premature. You are assuming that the lower numbers are because of people not wanting vaccine. That is a big assumption and there is no evidence for it. There is definitely a supply issue with the vaccines currently and it could very well be the primary reason behind lower numbers.

[Uttam]

Time, perhaps, to open vaccine eligibility to people 40+.

Is the taper because there is a lack of demand or is it because of a reduction in supply?

[Mort Walker]

Look at the slope of this curve. GoI is getting vaccines out faster than other countries. Demand from all CVCs is probably double of what they can offer and GoI will meet that demand in the next six weeks. Until then it will be difficult.

[hnair]

Suraj,

Looking at the numbers, it seems India is following the UK model of getting high numbers of initial vaccine doses and less on 2nd doses. Or people are unable or unwilling to get a 2nd dose.

I heard a bit of disquiet among the IMA folks that the second dose supply is in jeopardy and the public health officials are making a virtue of necessity in extending the timeline for individuals who already got second shot. Not because people are unwilling to take the second jab. My parents' second shot got extended to 55 days (and will probably go up) and that is when I inquired to find out what is going on.

There seemed to be some botch up in social distancing/masks policies and this second rapid spike is off the predicted path of "Corona will die on its own by February, even without vaccines" that I saw in this thread sometime last year. This spike is a data point for those claiming "Science" is infallible with the same reverence of a blind religious fundamentalist. Caution and common sense is paramount in these survival-mode times, when it comes to policy makers asking the opinion of "Big science" peddlers. Like any other field, Big Science too has its seat-warmers, budget-grabbers and political career-climbers. Used to be called sooth-sayers during older days. Of course, some explanations for this botch up will be served up and labeled "more science".

Anyways, I think we are back to the troubled times of lockdowns and resultant social disruptions for the unorganized sectors.

[Mort Walker]

^^^I know a number of people who were vaccinated over three weeks ago and their 2nd dose has been postponed.

[Suraj]

Suraj,

Looking at the numbers, it seems India is following the UK model of getting high numbers of initial vaccine doses and less on 2nd doses. Or people are unable or unwilling to get a 2nd dose.

102.35 million persons who received at least one dose
14.87 million persons fully vaccinated

I'm trying to understand this.

I don't know if that is true. UK is what >90% Pfizer+Moderna where the 2nd dose advisory is 26-30 days. India is >90% AZ, where the second dose advisory is 7-8 weeks out. The data is not comparable. UK may be doing so deliberately, but we are just doing so largely because of the advised delta. Plus, UK has been doing it since mid December.

As of March 1 we had vaccinated 14 million, all of whom were HCW/FLWs. The number today is 118 million, since the high risk group vaccination only started on March 1 (UK started mid Dec). Thus, the vast majority of our vaccinations are since March 1. That means no one since then who took Covishield (>90% by volume) is eligible for dose 2 yet. They will be, only from next week.

I don't know if ICMR has done serological studies to ascertain whether extending the interval between two doses is advisable. It may be as a public policy imperative for the less high risk folks, e.g >45 but no comorbidities.

[Ambar]

Suraj,

Looking at the numbers, it seems India is following the UK model of getting high numbers of initial vaccine doses and less on 2nd doses. Or people are unable or unwilling to get a 2nd dose.

This spike is a data point for those claiming "Science" is infallible with the same reverence of a blind religious fundamentalist. Caution and common sense is paramount in these survival-mode times, when it comes to policy makers asking the opinion of "Big science" peddlers. Like any other field, Big Science too has its seat-warmers, budget-grabbers and political career-climbers. Used to be called sooth-sayers during older days. Of course, some explanations for this botch up will be served up and labeled "more science".

Anyways, I think we are back to the troubled times of lockdowns and resultant social disruptions for the unorganized sectors.

Nair sar, i've been saying this since last year that March will bring flu again, i must have said it atleast a dozen times on this thread alone. It happens every year without fail, March-Jul/Aug India sees a severe spike in flu cases. We saw a huge spike in flu cases in Eur and the US from around Nov when their flu season began and now the cases are tapering as they come out of their peak flu season. Any GP who has has practiced in India will tell you that from summer to mid-monsoon the flu will keep them busy and on their toes. While i blame people for unnecessarily thronging weddings, religious places, restaurants, malls etc. and increasing the risk of contracting the flu, i also blame the negligence of local governments and especially private hospitals for not stockpiling o2, ventilators, anti-viral and anti-inflammation drugs.

I hope both the public and the government uses common sense . Lockdowns are not a solution and will not help. We are in the early months of vaccination and hope the government improves the process in future. The last thing we need at this time are some kneejerk reactions like pulling the plug from the economy which is only now coming out of coma. Migrant workers leaving metros to their villages is already a cause for concern not only from a economic perspective but also from a health perspective as many of these individuals can be carriers of flu to rural India.

[Sumeet]

Suraj,

There are random numbers and unknown and known sources being cited in various articles for fall out from Kumbh mela (which in my opinion should have been called off in the first place or at least cancelled mid way). Please collect data to update your article so that any misinformation campaign can be preempted.

Thanks. I am spreading your articles in my circle. Thanks again.

[Sumeet]

Adar Poonawalla
@adarpoonawalla
·
2h
Respected
@POTUS
, if we are to truly unite in beating this virus, on behalf of the vaccine industry outside the U.S., I humbly request you to lift the embargo of raw material exports out of the U.S. so that vaccine production can ramp up. Your administration has the details.

There was a clarification that this is for Novovax vaccine.

[nachiket]

There is a lot of variation in the way the nasal swab is being collected. For best results, you really need to sample both nostrils and go deep until the pharynx is touched, then twirl the swab several times. It is not that easy for people to tolerate and almost always brings tears to the eyes. Many nurses (typically these are the ones who take the samples) simply put the swab in the front part of the nose and call it a day. Some shove it up the nose in an upward direction whereas it should be placed directly perpendicular to the facial plane, aimed at the back of the skull, the shaft of the swab should be parallel to the floor. It is a common mistake among people to assume that any nasal tube (typically the naso-gastric tube used for feeding) should be pushed upwards. I have seen it inserted into the brain!

This may be compounded by the current situation where an explosion in cases and resultant high demand for testing may cause overworked technicians to take shortcuts out of a desperate need to collect more samples in the same amount of time.

I have taken 2 covid tests (both back in Jan-Feb), one in the US and one in India. In the US only the back of my throat got swabbed (nose left alone) while in India both my nostrils got swabbed but the swab was not inserted anywhere near as deep as you have talked about.

[Cyrano]

What do experts here think of this?

Announcing India's first clinically tested medicine for COVID-19 management and treatment AAYUDH Advance

The cited clinical trial paper:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7948525/

[vijayk]

What do experts here think of this?

Announcing India's first clinically tested medicine for COVID-19 management and treatment AAYUDH Advance

The cited clinical trial paper:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7948525/

great news ...

[Cyrano]

France is also delaying second shot so that more can get at least 1 shot. The Fr Govt as usual is playing hide and seek on this matter, disastrous communication.

[Anujan]

From what I have read.

Pfizer 1 shot has a protection of >50% after the first dose. But that includes measuring immediately after the dose was administered. The number is likely to be close to 80% after 14 days after first dose. Same with moderna.

Everyone agrees that 2 shots are needed for long lasting protection, there is no dispute there.

Pfizer and Moderna both produce a modified spike protein. The protein looks like the one on the virus, but is actually a bit different. The difference is to stabilize the spike protein so that it does not collapse.

AstraZeneca uses the same spike protein as the virus. J&J uses the modified spike protein. Not known what Sputnik V uses. This is probably the reason why the efficacy of astrazeneca is likely to be less than J&J, though they use the same technology.

Novavax also uses the modified spike protein.

Irrespective of whether more gap between vaccinations are "better", from a public policy perspective, delaying second dose for six to eight weeks does not seem to have an adverse effect, but from a public health point of view might be beneficial (more people with at least 1 dose).

Very concerned about Covid situation in India. US had peak infection rates of 250K per day. That is in a country which does not have as many dense cities in India, better educated population (forgetting the anti-mask, anti-vaccer idiots), relatively wealthy population who can probably work from home, or work in facilities where social distancing is possible, or who can afford to sit at home, with 4x fewer people.

Hopefully massive vaccination and better precautions can tamp down on infection rates in India.

These are interesting articles on how the vaccines work and the differences between them.

https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/rever ... r-vaccine/
https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/genet ... -vaccines/

[V_Raman]

Why is no one talking about covaxin - the traditonal one - is it not effective or is it being intentionally downplayed?

[vijayk]

Why is no one talking about covaxin - the traditonal one - is it not effective or is it being intentionally downplayed?

They are only producing 5 mil per month at this moment. They are more effective against all variants but unless they supply at least 50 mil a month they are not serious contender