Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

** Deleting my frustration post **

Getting frustrated at the situation in India. Friends/family have been affected too.

Can't even visit family ...

Hoping for things to improve in India
Last edited by vijayk on 20 Apr 2021 18:44, edited 2 times in total.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

RajaRudra wrote:Vaccine shortage is real, Tried on friday, saturday and today for my dad(second dose).
Online registration with location is done and appointment given on Friday, But no one even to tell the news that vaccines are not yet arrived to administer. After waiting for 1 hour, father dared to enter the GH and ask the nurse, only to get the answer from the nurse that vaccination not possible today as there is no supply. Some people waited from morning 8 in the hope of finishing fast and go.

This happened on a District Government Hospital-


Issue 1) - Which ever place vaccine not available, registration can be pushed to a later date.
Issue 2) - There is no one in charge to let the waiting public know that there is no use waiting.

No one should be surprised at vaccine non availability, we are such a huge population. Kodi kodi namaskarams to the medical staffs including doctors, nurses and the cleaners. They are doing the impossible thing of servicing this big population.

But communication is missing from top minister level to last mile nurse level.
Which one ? Covaxin or Covishield ?

Covisheild patients are not yet eligible. The guideline is ~8 weeks from first shot. The earliest first shots for anyone other than HCW/FLWs were start of March. Don't push the system for your second Covishield dose now.

Covaxin second dose is 26-30 days. So far this month almost 5 million doses have been used. The monthly Covaxin production is 5 million doses. So that is probably fully used up now.

This 'shortage' in Covaxin is an artificial result of month 2 needing new first dose PLUS second dose quantities. It could have been avoided with strict instructions to only use Covaxin for 2nd dose patients in April, or at least to prioritize them. However part of the problem is that Covaxin production is being ramped up but the exact timeline is a little uncertain.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nachiket »

Suraj wrote: Which one ? Covaxin or Covishield ?

Covisheild patients are not yet eligible. The guideline is ~8 weeks from first shot. The earliest first shots for anyone other than HCW/FLWs were start of March. Don't push the system for your second Covishield dose now.
My parents were told it is 6-8 weeks for Covishield (after first setting it to 4 weeks, it was increased later).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Cautiously relieved by this announcement, though there continue to be challenges. It's still better than before, though.
Suraj wrote:Suggestion: think less of what’s required and more about how it could be misused and ways to mitigate that risk. Govt is swamped by demands of all kinds, and such thinking let’s it stand out .
Though this exercise may be moot now*, let me share some points I was thinking of. Maybe others with better knowledge can help refine the ideas.

To identify people of a specific age-group and medical conditions, why not turn to medical insurance? Insurance companies do the due diligence all the time and their data would be quite reliable given that it's their money on the line. Sure, there can be some fraud by submitting fake claims, but on the whole, the data should be good enough to use. So what could we do:

For those having medical insurance:
1. Submit a recent (within the past 3 months) medical bill paid by the insurance company. It should mention the type of treatment, like chemotherapy or dialysis, or a surgical procedure. Or if there is a mechanism to get a statement from the insurance company, that's also fine.
2. Submit a signed statement from a doctor on an official letterhead with their medical registration number attesting to the co-morbid conditions for the patient. Ideally, this should be the doctor treating the condition, but any doctor with the relevant specialization should be fine.

For those not having medical insurance (perhaps the larger bucket):
1. Submit signed statements on official letterheads with the medical registration number from two doctors. The doctors should be specialists in that field and should be independent of each other, i.e. from different clinics/hospitals.

Drawbacks:
1. This still requires some manual verification, which is difficult and time consuming. But most people may not go to the trouble of taking multiple statements, so risk of misuse should be low. To ensure deterrence, some rules and punishments for fraud could be notified, along with auditing random applications to keep the effort manageable.
2. There is no online method of verification with either the insurance companies, or that of doctor verification numbers.
3. Getting two doctors' opinions would be cumbersome, and many people may just not do it.
4. The onus to prove falls on the patient, who may not be in a position to do this extra effort. But with the paid channel opening up, at least there is an alternative for those who can afford it.

* I hope they still announce a special exemption for such people in the govt channel, for the following reasons:
1. Supplies may continue to be limited as the centre has devolved responsibility to states/individual hospitals. This puts the onus on arranging a shot on the patients themselves, and their condition would make it hard to search around. I think @Bart S made the same point above.
2. These people are still are at risk, and not having a special channel increases their risk of getting infected at the vaccination centers.
3. There would be a lot of poorer people in this bucket depending on govt hospitals for treatment, and would not have insurance. While a few might be able to afford a paid private facility, with the risk factors in #1 and #2, the bulk wouldn't. Getting two doctors' statements would be even more difficult in such cases. Maybe use the govt provided insurance data for them? Not sure about its coverage though.

The above are what I could come up with my limited abilities and understanding. If there's anyone with better knowledge/ideas, kindly suggest. While yesterday's announcement made this somewhat moot, a good policy would be useful if we are going with multiple rounds of vaccinations as some reports suggest, and also be relevant for the poorer section of the population.

--------------

Sponsor a vaccine program: (domestic maitri):

Given the announcement yesterday, maybe the Finance ministry can announce a tax exemption for sponsoring paid vaccination for others - maids, drivers, security staff, etc. For example, assuming it costs ₹1000 for vaccinating an individual (both shots), a sum of up to ₹10000 could be claimed for tax exemption. In effect, 1:10. The tax-payer only needs to declare the vaccination certificate number, or aadhaar number of the beneficiary (privacy implications?) when claiming the benefit. Better yet, just give a one-time standard deduction for an even better response. This can address the problem of poorer people with co-morbidities having trouble proving their eligibility and can counter vaccine hesitancy to some extent among the general population.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

nachiket wrote:
Suraj wrote: Which one ? Covaxin or Covishield ?

Covisheild patients are not yet eligible. The guideline is ~8 weeks from first shot. The earliest first shots for anyone other than HCW/FLWs were start of March. Don't push the system for your second Covishield dose now.
My parents were told it is 6-8 weeks for Covishield (after first setting it to 4 weeks, it was increased later).
Covishield 7-8 week (I assume they'll push everyone as far back as possible - UK has extended their as much as 12 weeks in some cases) interval was announced on Mar 21 . My parents got first dose around then and were told come back in 2 months.

3.3 million on Monday for a total 127.1 million.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

It's not a perfect science. The first of the 60+ cohort started on the 2nd dose last week. There is some flexibility on when the 2nd dose can be scheduled. That is good because lockdowns are complicating transportation.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

nachiket wrote:
Suraj wrote: Which one ? Covaxin or Covishield ?

Covisheild patients are not yet eligible. The guideline is ~8 weeks from first shot. The earliest first shots for anyone other than HCW/FLWs were start of March. Don't push the system for your second Covishield dose now.
My parents were told it is 6-8 weeks for Covishield (after first setting it to 4 weeks, it was increased later).
same with my parents. the got their first shot on 3rd day of eligibility and are waiting for 2nd. have been calling the hospital last two days and hopefully supplies are coming in soon for covisheild. the hospital got covaxin yesterday.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

vera_k wrote:It's not a perfect science. The first of the 60+ cohort started on the 2nd dose last week. There is some flexibility on when the 2nd dose can be scheduled. That is good because lockdowns are complicating transportation.
I know people who were tested positive after getting first dose of Covishield a few weeks earlier, but haven't got their 2nd dose. Some mild like flu symptoms, but not very sick and have to still self-isolate and miss work.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sumeet »

@Suraj and others who are tracking informative articles to collect all data points for their well informed articles:

Covid-19: White House refuses to comment on lifting ban on vaccine raw materials export to India
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Sumeet wrote:@Suraj and others who are tracking informative articles to collect all data points for their well informed articles:

Covid-19: White House refuses to comment on lifting ban on vaccine raw materials export to India
Funny. "We've been the leader in funding COVAX". The Novavax production from SII that is held up by US raw material is destined for COVAX. That was the whole reason the Gates Foundation brokered the production agreement with SII. Same for Covishield - SII has another ~70m Covishield doses it is obligated to offer COVAX. They have so far withheld it and passed it to India.

Poonawalla is doing a good job by publicly putting the US in a spot. However, I would urge posters here to have more perspective. SII can replace most or all of what It needs at least for Covishield with locally made inputs. Novavax, the situation is less clear, but India doesn't lack the industrial might here.

Most people know of Indian presence in generic drugs. What is less known is the extent to which SII is responsible for a lions share of lives and costs saved in the developing world through its vaccines.
NIH study from 2019
See Table 4: between 2001-2020, $155 BILLION in medical costs were averted through widespread vaccination . SII alone is responsible for $140 billion of that. In other words they saturated not just India but the developing world with so much vaccines that they saved costs equal to multiple carriers, all the Rafales IAF wants, and more.

This is where India stands as a global vaccine maker - we dominate the business. Gavi/COVAX run on SII's output. Covid itself will become a chronic condition . $20/dose gold plated vaccines won't help the world. Indian made cheap high volume output will do that... again. So while the US can apply DPA now, at some point in the next few months, the whole exercise will just turn out to be an embarrassment. Right now, the new admin is covered in teflon. It has a pliant press that wanted his opponent gone. There will be no objectivity.

But India is not a weaker aggrieved party here. This is how things are played at the big power stage.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

What are the specific raw materials that are being embargoed, and how much is needed for production?
Karan M
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

Suraj wrote:SII is constrained by US-sourced raw material for Novavax production according to Poonawalla. Novavax is a US company trying to produce in India, and it's a case of US shooting itself in the foot by licensing SII to make something and then denying them the associated inputs.

Covishield is not tied directly to anything US; SII are constrained by capital needs to scale beyond 100m doses/month, a level they will reach in May/June. they've already sunk in the costs of expansion from 60m/month to 100m/month and it's a matter of time before it comes on stream.

Covaxin is tied to US sourced adjuvant and they're actively collaborating with CSIR to devise and locally mass manufacture a domestic alternative. It seems that is going ok, because they're estimating increasing from current 5m/month to 12m/month and then to as much as 60m/month by end of summer.
https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... e-7280711/

Novoxax misspelled as Covovax, but note both Covishield and Novovax referred to.
The US restrictions are expected to hit the output of major suppliers for the world. The continued restrictions may not only cause a fight for limited resources, but also delay regulatory clearances of some products, according to experts. Plastic bags, filters and cell culture media, especially, are relevant to most vaccines being made to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic. This includes vaccines like Covishield and Covovax, of which SII was expected to supply over a billion doses each this year.

Poonawalla has reportedly said the restrictions have halved the number of doses of Covovax that SII can stockpile. SII had earlier said the restrictions would not affect its current production of Covishield, but “may” impact “the scaling up of Covishield’s future capacity”.
Also, not a big fan of the scroll, but they are referencing the Economist, which is subscription only.

https://scroll.in/latest/992648/indias- ... nts-report
India’s coronavirus vaccine production lines, which manufacture at least 16 crore doses a month, will halt within weeks if the United States does not provide 37 crucial items, according to The Economist.

The US had in February invoked the Defence Production Act, which helped American pharmaceutical firms procure the material they needed to augment vaccine production. But under the act, the firms need permission to export raw materials. The US government can stop the companies from exporting them.

The export restrictions threaten to hinder vaccine production across the world at a time when coronavirus cases are surging. India is battling a severe second wave of the virus and struggling with shortages of vaccine and other critical equipment.
The company produces 1 crore doses of the Covishield vaccine per month. It also plans to start manufacturing 60 to 70 million doses of the Novavax vaccine.

Serum Institute’s Executive Director Suresh Jadhav said the production of the two vaccines will be affected in the next few weeks, according to The Economist.
The Economist article in question.

https://www.economist.com/science-and-t ... production
Yet this ambition is at risk from American export controls on raw materials and equipment. Production lines in India, making at least 160m doses of covid vaccine a month, will come to a halt in the coming weeks unless America supplies 37 critical items.

On April 16th, Adar Poonawalla, the chief executive of the Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s biggest vaccine-maker, put out a tweet begging President Joe Biden to “lift the embargo of raw material exports out of the US...Your administration has the details”. Suresh Jadhav, SII’s executive director, says “we are absolutely concerned,” and that in the next four to six weeks the production of two vaccines will be affected: AstraZeneca’s, of which SII makes 100m doses a month, and Novavax’s, of which it expects to make 60m-70m doses a month. SII says it first alerted the American government to the impending problem two months ago.
Vaccine production requires an array of special materials, including plastic tubing, raw goods, filters and even paper. Because all these items have to be specially approved by regulators to be used in medicine production, finding substitutes quickly can be impossible.
If all goes swimmingly, the world could produce as many as 14bn doses of vaccine this year. But if vaccines and raw materials do not arrive where and when needed, production will fall grievously short of that estimate. Shortfalls in India will hinder its own vaccination programme, which is ramping up amidst an alarming second wave of infections—the country is recording more than 1,000 deaths per day from covid-19. And since India has banned the export of finished vaccines while it serves domestic needs, Mr Jadhav says that SII cannot fulfill its commitments to Covax, a global vaccine-sharing programme, and cannot deliver supplies to Europe and Britain.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Karan M wrote:
Suraj wrote:SII is constrained by US-sourced raw material for Novavax production according to Poonawalla. Novavax is a US company trying to produce in India, and it's a case of US shooting itself in the foot by licensing SII to make something and then denying them the associated inputs.
And since India has banned the export of finished vaccines while it serves domestic needs, Mr Jadhav says that SII cannot fulfill its commitments to Covax, a global vaccine-sharing programme, and cannot deliver supplies to Europe and Britain.
This is the best way to put pressure on the US. Let some gora countries squeal and it becomes "global" issue. Otherwise no western media would be bothered by surging cases in India or the rest of the "third" world.

But we should (and I expect this govt to) be looking to indigenize most of the imports, and then offer to supply the poor and homeless in the US. A tweet from Poonawalla should do it. Knowing what I know of that country, these people are probably going to be left out in significant numbers.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Karan M wrote:Novoxax misspelled as Covovax
Not a spelling mistake. The latter is SII's brandname for Novavax. Same way they call AZD1222 as 'Covishield' . it's their thing. Pfizer is just making one vaccine. SII had signed deals for minimum two (AZ and Novavax). Similarly BB has multiple vaccines - Covaxin, a nasal spray option in P1/2 trials now...
Dekho no money or vaccines wrote:Let this ambition is at risk from American export controls on raw materials and equipment. Production lines in India, making at least 160m doses of covid vaccine a month, will come to a halt in the coming weeks unless America supplies 37 critical items.
Personally I think this is simply a big power negotiation. AZ is not a US company unlike Novavax. It is the cumulatively most high volume Covid vaccine in the world today. At one point in late March, SII cumulative Covishield volume exceeded combined US volume (Pfizer + JJ + Moderna). AZ is also made in several other places, e.g. among others Daiichi Sankyo mades it in Japan (but Japan itself has not approved it, so it's sitting there unused).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

Indian Express is reporting quoting Rahul Gandhi's Twitter account as saying that he has tested 'positive ' for Covid 19.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Bharat Biotech scales up Covaxin production to 700 Mn doses annually
Bharat Biotech on Tuesday said it has scaled up its COVID-19 vaccine Covaxin manufacturing capacity to 700 million doses per annum.
According to a press release issued by the city-based vaccine maker, manufacturing scale up has been carried out in a stepwise manner across multiple facilities at Hyderabad and Bangalore.

Sources said the company had 200 million doses capacity when it started producing Covaxin in the beginning.
I thought BB was producing about 5 million a month or 60 million a year. First time I am hearing about 200 million capacity. Still great news.
Capacity expansion in vaccines manufacturing is a long and tedious process, requiring investments and several years, the release said.

'Bharat Biotech is able to expandCovaxin manufacturing capacity in a short timeline, mainly due to the availability of new specially designed BSL-3 facilities, first of its kind for manufacturing in India that have been repurposed and preexisting expertise and know how to manufacture, test and release highly purified inactivated viral vaccines,' the firm said.

Manufacturing partnerships are being explored with our partners in other countries, who have prior expertise with commercial scale manufacture of inactivated viral vaccines under biosafety containment, Bharat Biotech said.

To further increase capacities, Bharat Biotech has partnered with Indian Immunologicals (IIL) to manufacture the drug substance for Covaxin.

The technology transfer process is well underway and IIL has the capabilities and expertise to manufacture inactivated viral vaccines at commercial scale and under biosafety containment.

Bharat Biotech uses a proprietary adjuvant Algel- IMDG, which has now proven to be a safe and effective adjuvant, especially to stimulate memory T cell responses.

The synthesis and manufacture of the IMDG component has been successfully indigenized and will be manufactured at commercial scale within the country.

This is the first instance where a novel adjuvant has been commercialised in India.

Covaxin has received Emergency Use Authorisations in several countries across the globe with another 60 in process.

EUAs have now been obtained from Mexico, the Philippines, Iran, Paraguay, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Guyana, Venezuela, Botswana, Zimbabwe, among several other countries.

EUAs are in process in the USA and several European countries.

Pricing for international markets and supplies to governments under EUAs have been established between USD15 - 20/ dose, the vaccine maker said.PTI GDKSS PTI PTI
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Uttamji ... first hopeful news after several days of bad news. Thank you ...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Another huge nugget in this article:
Bharat Biotech uses a proprietary adjuvant Algel- IMDG, which has now proven to be a safe and effective adjuvant, especially to stimulate memory T cell responses.

The synthesis and manufacture of the IMDG component has been successfully indigenized and will be manufactured at commercial scale within the country.

This is the first instance where a novel adjuvant has been commercialised in India.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

The amount of people in the regular media and social media that are actually happy and exulting that we are struggling with the second wave is sad and disgusting at the same time.

In the end we are Indians but I guess T the Mudi rejine is more important
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

India
Manindra Agrawal @agrawalmanindra

<Update on 20/4> @stellensatz
India curves remain in sync. Peak value has gone up a bit to ~35 lakhs active infections. Peak location remains the same. New infections slated to peak during May 1-5 as before at ~3.3 lakh infections/day.
Image
Last edited by vijayk on 20 Apr 2021 20:21, edited 1 time in total.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Delhi
Manindra Agrawal
@agrawalmanindra

Delhi also tracking well. Peak during 25-30 April.
Image


MH
Manindra Agrawal
@agrawalmanindra

<Update on 20/4> @stellensatz
Maharashtra is now at the peak. Expect it to start coming down soon.
Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjayc »

Press release from Bharat Biotech
Bharat Biotech Announces COVAXIN® Capacity Expansion to Support vaccination campaigns in India and Worldwide

• Capacity expansion has been implemented across multiple facilities in Hyderabad and Bangalore, to reach ~ 700 million doses / year, one of the largest production capacities for Inactivated viral vaccines worldwide,
• IMDG agonist molecule synthesis and manufacturing has been successfully implemented in India eliminating dependency on imports,
• Raw materials, packing materials and single use consumables for manufacturing have been secured to meet our capacity requirements


Hyderabad, India, April 20th, 2021: Bharat Biotech announces scale up of manufacturing capacity to produce ~ 700 million doses of COVAXIN® annually.

Manufacturing scale up has been carried out in a stepwise manner across multiple facilities at Hyderabad, and Bangalore. Inactivated vaccines, while highly safe, are extremely complex and expensive to manufacture, resulting in lower yields when compared to live virus vaccines.

Capacity expansion in vaccines manufacturing is a long and tedious process, requiring investments of several millions of rupees and several years. Bharat Biotech is able to expand COVAXIN® manufacturing capacity in a short timeline, mainly due to the availability of new specially designed BSL- 3 facilities, first of its kind for manufacturing in India that have been repurposed and preexisting expertise and know how to manufacture, test and release highly purified inactivated viral vaccines.

Manufacturing partnerships are being explored with our partners in other countries, who have prior expertise with commercial scale manufacture of inactivated viral vaccines under biosafety containment.

To further increase capacities, Bharat Biotech has partnered with Indian Immunologicals (IIL) to manufacture the drug substance for COVAXIN®. The technology transfer process is well underway and IIL has the capabilities and expertise to manufacture inactivated viral vaccines at commercial scale and under biosafety containment.

Bharat Biotech uses a proprietary adjuvant Algel-IMDG, that has now proven to be a safe and effective adjuvant, especially to stimulate memory T cell responses. The synthesis and manufacture of the IMDG component has been successfully indigenized and will be manufactured at commercial scale within the country. This is the first instance where a novel adjuvant has been commercialized in India.

The protocols for manufacturing, testing and release of inactivated vaccines have been tried, tested and validated across several of our vaccines, these also meet the requirements of WHO, Indian and other regulatory authorities. These protocols have delivered consistent results over a 15-year period with more than 300 million doses supplied globally, with excellent safety and performance record.

COVAXIN® has received Emergency Use Authorizations in several countries across the globe with another 60 in process. EUA’s have now been obtained from Mexico, Philippines, Iran, Paraguay, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Guyana, Venezuela, Botswana, Zimbabwe, among several other countries. EUA’s are in process in the USA and several European countries. Pricing for international markets and supplies to govt’s under EUA’s have been established between $15 - 20 / dose.
________________________________________

About Bharat Biotech

Bharat Biotech has established an excellent track record of innovation with more than 145 global patents, a wide product portfolio of more than 16 vaccines, 4 bio-therapeutics, registrations in more than 123 countries, and the World Health Organization (WHO) Pre-qualifications. Located in Genome Valley in Hyderabad, India, a hub for the global biotech industry, Bharat Biotech has built a world-class vaccine & bio-therapeutics, research & product development, Bio-Safety Level 3 manufacturing, and vaccine supply and distribution.

Having delivered more than 4 billion doses of vaccines worldwide, Bharat Biotech continues to lead innovation and has developed vaccines for influenza H1N1, Rotavirus, Japanese Encephalitis (JENVAC®), Rabies, Chikungunya, Zika, Cholera, and the world’s first tetanus-toxoid conjugated vaccine for Typhoid. Bharat’s commitment to global social innovation programs and public-private partnerships resulted in introducing path-breaking WHO pre-qualified vaccines BIOPOLIO®, ROTAVAC®, and Typbar TCV® combatting polio, rotavirus, typhoid infections, respectively. The acquisition of Chiron Behring Vaccines, has positioned Bharat Biotech as the world's largest rabies vaccine manufacturer with Chirorab® and Indirab®. To learn more about Bharat Biotech, visit http://www.bharatbiotech.com.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Just heard on the radio that, as per the CDC, post-vaccine (single or double dose) infection rate in the US has been found to be around .007%.

This is good news. Even if you conservatively add 50% for lack of full data/ time etc, the vaccines are 99%+ effective in preventing symptomatic infections. This is better than previously reported lab results.

Countries like Israel and the UK, that have so far vaccinated a higher (over 60%) percentage of population than the US, are reporting a steep drop in new infections about 2-3 weeks after 50% vaccination was achieved.

India is at 10% vaccination right now. Need to get to at least 50% in the next 3 months, by hook or by crook.

I am hoping the private sector will quickly scale up and vaccinate quickly all those who can afford to pay. The GoI can then pick up the BPL folks, after they are finished vaccinating 60-70% of the 45+ folks.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

if you lie down with dogs, you will get up with fleas, no


Rahul Gandhi tested positive for Covid-19, wishing speedy recovery for him.

Rahul Gandhi tests positive for COVID-19
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Interesting. I'm not in this for the politics, but didn't he supposedly get vaccinated with Pfizer abroad ? If so, he constitutes a breakthrough case for a Pfizer vaccinated patient. Serological studies would be needed to ascertain which variant he has.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manas »

Kakkaji wrote:Just heard on the radio that, as per the CDC, post-vaccine (single or double dose) infection rate in the US has been found to be around .007%.
Here is a link to news report that outlines CDC observations about "break through" cases in the U.S. for fully vaccinated people. When the sample set was taken they had 84M people fully vaccinated. So I believe all of this is based on Pfizer and Moderna. It is interesting to note that they have seen a small number of deaths in the fully vaccinated population - but do not know age/comorbidities of the people that unfortunately died due to COVID despite vaccination.

It is very clear that vaccines reduce the risk of infection dramatically and even if one is infected the chances that one will experience only mild symptoms and avoid hospitalization are very good. So very important for people to take vaccines. in 99.999%+ of the cases vaccines will not have any adverse effects.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/cdc-say ... icans.html
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by VickyAvinash »

My parents got first shot on March 20 in Amritsar. Father did not experience anything but mother immediately went thru very high fever (102-103) for 3 days. Today they got second shot in Gurgaon at a private hospital (Max Hospital) at 250 rupees per head. It was a smooth process. First they registered on Covin website at 2:30 PM, followed by a call to hospital to setup an appointment for 05:00 PM. They were in and out of hospital in 20 mins flat including 10 mins wait time(did not spend 30 mins as it was second shot). There seems not to be any shortage at least in Metro cities and private hospitals.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

Deleted.

Come on, I literally kept the discussion to topic and explicitly stated I'm not going into politics, and that's you went off in that direction. Please, read the air properly. It's not like there's no other thread to talk about such things.
Last edited by Suraj on 20 Apr 2021 23:20, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Poster wanders off into politics
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Uttar Pradesh announces free COVID-19 vaccine for all above 18 years of age from May 1
"The PM's decision will help in better management of COVID and massive vaccination will help in defeating coronavirus. We have decided to vaccinate all above 18 years free of cost. The state government will take forward the vaccination programme with its own resources," the CM said, according to a statement issued here.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Some more detail from Covaxin's increased production:
https://www.theweek.in/news/biz-tech/20 ... annum.html
Last month we produced 15 million doses, this month we are reaching 20 million doses, next month we will be making around 30 million doses followed by 70 to 75 million doses," Ella said
"We are ramping up the production and by July-August we will be able to reach 700 to 800 million doses production capacity per annum," Ella said.


@Suraj: Would you please update your forecast of vaccine availability using these numbers?
Last edited by Uttam on 20 Apr 2021 23:27, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

In addition to BB's production:

IIL confident of Covaxin rollout by August
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Lockdown should be the last resort; state governments should allay fears: Narendra Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the nation, reiterated that imposing a lockdown should be the last option and state governments need to do everything in order to allay people's fears. His address comes hours after he interacted with leading vaccine makers and urged them to scale up vaccine production.

Key highlights of PM's address
- The second wave has returned in far more severe form, but we need to act collectively and overcome this situation.
- "I want to thank all health workers and caregivers for their unending service to the nation," said Modi.
- Governments at all levels are working to oversee the problem of oxygen shortage.
- Pharma companies are working tirelessly to expand the vaccine production.
- Special Covid facilities are being prepared at states to deal with new cases.
- India has demonstrated great potential for vaccine storage (cold storage) infrastructure.
- "Decisions taken in the past few days will help the nation to fight the pandemic," said the Prime Minister.
- India has fought the Covid menace with discipline and patience.
- "Urge state govts to ensure the well-being of migrants," said Modi.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

2.9 million vaccinations to 8pm Tuesday. Overall crosses 130 million.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Uttam wrote:@Suraj: Would you please update your forecast of vaccine availability using these numbers?
I have been considering a forward forecast, but it's a little tricky because I want to give at least a bit of time for better clarity rather than make potentially optimistic forecasts out of first utterances.

On the other hand my trailing analysis has been pretty robust so far - our cumulative consumption (vaccinations plus exports plus reported in pipeline stock) exceeds max nominal production rate since Jan, so it's clear there was a prior stockpile. My article estimated it best as I could from the dozens of news reports I went through to distill that down.

Similarly, I want to wait until the adjuvant story from BB has a little more clarity as to supply and ramp up. It's good news that they worked out the issue locally.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sohamn »

Uttam wrote:Some more detail from Covaxin's increased production:
https://www.theweek.in/news/biz-tech/20 ... annum.html
Last month we produced 15 million doses, this month we are reaching 20 million doses, next month we will be making around 30 million doses followed by 70 to 75 million doses," Ella said
"We are ramping up the production and by July-August we will be able to reach 700 to 800 million doses production capacity per annum," Ella said.


@Suraj: Would you please update your forecast of vaccine availability using these numbers?

I don't think they have ramped up yet, this looks like a propaganda PR message by Bharat-biotech. I suspect, they can fully ramp up to this number by September, they need their Bangalore facility, bharat biological, Indian immunological and haffkin to assist them in production augumentation. Unlike mRNA vaccines or live virus vaccines, inactivated vaccines have a long lead time.

Also, I read that neither Sputnik or Johnson (Bio-e) has started manufacturing yet - and intends to start by June / July timeframe.

Right now, for the next 2 months the only hope is Serum - and I think by May they can augment Covishield volumes to 100 million+. Of this I suspect they would honor some of the COVAX requirements which may be 20-30 million a month. So possibly, India would have access to 80 million of Covishield a month from the beginning of May.

So my estimates are
May = 80 million Covishield + Between 5 and 10 million Covaxin + 1 million imported Sputnik = Approx. 91 million Vaccines
June = 80 million Covishield + 20 million Covaxin + 0 milion Sputnik(no production yet) = 100 million vaccines
July = 80 million Covishield + 30 million Covaxin + 5 milion Sputnik(beginning of local production) = 115 million vaccines
August = 80 million Covishield + 40 million Covaxin + 10 milion Sputnik(just one local companie i.e. Hetero stabilizes production) = 130 million
September = 80 million Covishield + 50 million Covaxin + 20 milion Sputnik + 10 million Covovax + 5 milllion ZyCov-D + 5 million Janssen = 170 million
October = 80 million Covishield + 50 million Covaxin + 30 milion Sputnik + 20 million Covovax + 10 milllion ZyCov-D + 10 million Janssen + 5 million Pfzier = 205 million

October / November would be the peak of both vaccine production for local consumption and Indian supply chain which can handle upto 7 million a day. Other vaccines would also be added to the kitty in December including Gennova's mRNA, Bharat Bio's nasal vaccine, Serum's Codagenix but they would be too late in the game to make any difference.

India would produce a lot more of Covishield (Astra), Covovax(Novavax), Sputnik and Janssen but they would be exported for COVAX or given grant to other countries - so wouldn't be worth counting them.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

SII's dependency on US raw materials must be due to contractual obligation with AZ and Novavax. Otherwise I don't see why a low cost company like SII would be dependent on US raw materials.

BB seems better as it is it's own vaccine. SII is also working on it's own vaccine.I can totally see SII dumping AZ, once it's own vaccine is available. GoI should ask SII to start producing Covaxin. We cannot be depend on US and block vaccine to our population. SII can say, ask US, if anybody asks for vaccine.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjayc »

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/n ... is-0-00008

In the first four months that COVID-19 vaccines have been available — between Dec. 14 and April 13 — more than 75 million people in the U.S. were fully vaccinated against the virus. Of those who were fully vaccinated, just under 6,000 later became infected with COVID-19. Those statistics mean that the “breakthrough rate” of COVID-19 infections in fully vaccinated people in the U.S. is a measly 0.008%.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Lot of Indian doctors on twitter have been mentioning how vaccinated older people have had mild symptoms on getting infected. Most of the causalities have been the ones, who refused to take the vaccine!
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