Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

srin wrote:SHQ tested positive last weekend. Pretty mild, relatively speaking - 101F fever, and body ache for a couple of days and then recovered. BBMP called 24 hours later and advised Ivermectin and something else, but she was already much better, so we didn't bother with any of that.
Both of us fully vaccinated 6 months ago with Covaxin.
That tallies with what I'm hearing *annecdotally* from friends too - for those who are fully vacc'ed, it is like a flu. And every case I know is a breakthrough case (Covaxin or Covishield doesn't seem to matter).
Glad to hear it is mild. Wishing for quick recovery
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

arshyam wrote:Thanks for these updates... I can see the trend clearly starting to go down in Mumbai and Delhi, and even Chennai seems to have peaked..

A question about the shorter peak - could the delayed second dose in India, especially for those who had taken Covishield and had a long waiting period till the second dose (88 days), and a large part of the population having taken the first dose only a month or two back have influenced this outcome? Unlike the mRNA ('Pfizer')....
Few comments: (Ignoring tremendous amount of noise in this thread - just using actual data and math).

As said before, multiple times - the timing of peak could be fore casted with much more confidence and accuracy - the height of the peak is obviously much more difficult - depends on so many out side factors and habits of people, action taken by local authorities and even how one 'counts' the numbers.

The counting strategy - due to new guidelines from ICMR about testing etc - has changed and it may be one factor about the lower numbers - but I am not sure this is the only reason (lower numbers than predicted by model are being seen in states/districts where new testing strategy is not implemented).. more data we can analyze how much this has impact on real numbers but here is summary:
- Mumbai - Reached the peak - around predicted time (~Jan 13) - Peak value = 75% of model prediction (posted in BRF). Numbers are decreasing rapidly now, as expected.
- Delhi - Peaked ~ Jan 15 as predicted - Peak value is ~ 50% of model prediction.
- Kolkatta - Similar story - Same story about timing (Reached now) Peak value around 70% of model prediction.
-Bengaluru: Predicted to peak around Jan 22. (Actual value may also be smaller the current model computation of 30K)
Different states still peaking (fairly sure about the timing at different time). NE are later in the month etc.
Bihar, UP are peaking now (numbers - fortunately low - not surprising though - number of undetected cases in these states are high - but Hospital resources etc - doing much better than expected)
Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan etc around Jan 20.. Andhra, TN etc a little later (~ Jan 25-30)
India as a whole - as posted in a post above - Jan 23.
One can easily make these prediction wrong (the height of the peak) - simply using masks more often.
---
Predictions which I shared with people I know here in US - came out to be quite accurate in terms of timing
Primus
BRFite
Posts: 1259
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: Ground Zero

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

Mean-e-while, the usual suspects are at it again.

Science, in its latest issue publishes another rubbish article as the leading page, stating India's death toll is 4-5 times higher than reported, at over 3 million. Quotes Prabhat Jha of Toronto, the same Ramanan Laxminarayanan of 'epidemiologist' fame and a Shahid Jameel from Ashoka University who are all 'in agreement' that India's Modi government deliberately lied about the numbers to cover up their incompetence. Samira Asma of WHO, an anal-ist, says this triangulates nicely with data as she is a 'data expert'.

Also goes on to pontificate that India should not rely on its vaccine strategy and claim immunity due to high levels of previous exposure and vaccination numbers.

Shows how much hold the BIF have over mainstream science these days if these jokers can publish such rubbish in a previously reputed journal. That similar farticles are also being published in the Lancet indicates the level of influence China has on that Brishit rag.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

I have posted many graphs about covid trajectory using SUTRA model - for more than 15 months -- to see how good theory and modeling is. Here is "prediction" (from some-what stable phase) - of USA. - from weeks ago and actual data from Ourworldindata. I note that the timing of the peak (as mentioned then) turns out to be quite accurate. The height of the peak is also quite good.

Image
(The peak - for USA in average was estimated to be around Jan 15 and Height about 700-880K
US is quite big - so different states may peak at slightly different time - latest one till end of January - descend from peak is therefore not very fast - )

The actual graph of reported data - shows peak reaching around the same height..
Image

(The date presented in OWI data uses mm-dd-yy format while the first graph uses dd-mm-yy format)..
(Remains to be seen - how good the downward trend will be over the next month or so).
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Above (Model predicted data and actual (reported) data) also consistent with:

U.S. COVID update: First week-on-week drop in cases since December 15

- New cases: 430,791
- Average: 812,124 (-3,702)
- States reporting: 22/50
- In hospital: 156,682 (+1,155)
- In ICU: 26,033 (+155)
- New deaths: 992
- Average: 1,931 (+55)
U.S. COVID update: Number in hospital drops for the 1st time since Dec., cases down about 9%
sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6094
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

Last I heard of Prabhat Jha, he was distributing condoms in mumbai’s Slums for research purposes.

However please critique the study. Everyone has opinions.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Looks like USA's actual numbers too like to follow more and more SUTRA's prediction/graphs posted here..
(Peak's timing has been on the dot -- the height (which I would have been impressed if came within 30-40%) is also fairly close to actual value.

Actual:
Image
Vs graph:
Image
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9319
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

Very poor demand for boosters’ — why 3rd shot numbers have dipped sharply in 1st week
Vaccine hesitancy and surging infections among healthcare workers believed to be likely reasons for fall in booster demand. Numbers fluctuating for frontline workers & senior citizens. https://theprint.in/health/sharp-dip-in ... kh/805640/

coming from the Print , it should be taken with pinch of salt
AkshaySG
BRFite
Posts: 412
Joined: 30 Jul 2020 08:51

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by AkshaySG »

IndraD wrote:Very poor demand for boosters’ — why 3rd shot numbers have dipped sharply in 1st week
Vaccine hesitancy and surging infections among healthcare workers believed to be likely reasons for fall in booster demand. Numbers fluctuating for frontline workers & senior citizens. https://theprint.in/health/sharp-dip-in ... kh/805640/

coming from the Print , it should be taken with pinch of salt
Don't really believe the "Vaccine Hesitancy " bit considering we've administered 1.5 Billion+ doses ... If anything its a Booster hesitancy with people still debating if a "precaution" dose if needed at all , Plus unlike the crazy scenes of Delta that propelled the initial clamor for vaccines things have settled down now .
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

AkshaySG wrote:
IndraD wrote:Very poor demand for boosters’ — why 3rd shot numbers have dipped sharply in 1st week
Vaccine hesitancy and surging infections among healthcare workers believed to be likely reasons for fall in booster demand. Numbers fluctuating for frontline workers & senior citizens. https://theprint.in/health/sharp-dip-in ... kh/805640/

coming from the Print , it should be taken with pinch of salt
Don't really believe the "Vaccine Hesitancy " bit considering we've administered 1.5 Billion+ doses ... If anything its a Booster hesitancy with people still debating if a "precaution" dose if needed at all , Plus unlike the crazy scenes of Delta that propelled the initial clamor for vaccines things have settled down now .
The article is nonsense. This is just a matter of simple numbers and rules. Here are the parameters:
* Only HCWs, FLWs and 60+ with comorbidities are eligible.
* The second dose must have been 9 months ago, i.e. 2nd dose on or before April 17 2021
* Precaution doses began on Jan 10

As of April 16 (17 was a Sunday) the second dose totals are:
HCW: 5.7 million second doses
FLW: 5.3 million second doses
60+: 3.5 million second doses

As of today, the following number of precaution doses are done:
HCWs: 2.2 million (39%)
FLWs: 1.9 million (36%)
60+: 1.6 million (46%)

That's in ONE week.

Please don't quote sensationalist nonsense. Anywhere in the world, cohorts eligible for boosters take multiple weeks to be done. Journos posting claims one week afterwards when aggregate coverage is already touching 40% of cohort, are not to be given any patronage.

The time to peddle 'vaccine hesitancy' is over. Probably by the end of week, India will match or exceed Europe (continent + UK) in fraction of total population with at least one dose, and soon after that will exceed combined North America (US+Canada+Mexico), and we have a population of those two entities combined.
disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 8242
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

There is no point in discussing nonsense that comes out from rags like liar wire, Coupta's print, rNDTV. They are just shills of western media which is again shills for western political clients in India (think CONgoons and assorted 'opposition')

The concept of vaccine hesitation as applicable from the western concept and western lenses does *not* apply in India.

India does not have vaccine hesitation in general. In contrast to western nations, India has vaccine eagerness in general*. Indians at a general level seem to be more tech-savvy and more logical than their western counterparts**.

It also needs to be acknowledged that there are pockets of special communities that go by the book and are anti-vaxxers. In a mega-size democracy like India, there are always going to be vicissitudes of narratives.

And that gives mediapimps a chance to become Katherine Mayos of the world. A century later, the Indian Mayos are not even able to find the drains to look into. Indeed it is a sad state of affairs. For them.

* Vaccination eagerness as a sentiment shows up as "wasted vaccines" in the statistics. That is when ppl jump the line by paying under the table to get a jab. Given the massive vaccine availability, even that is not a concern by itself.
**India is the largest democracy in the world for a good reason.
disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 8242
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

The story of Pedro.

Pedro was a famous resident of the famous town of Frias, Spain. Pedro was the smartest resident of the town. Pedro was accomplished in all fields of sciences, technology, art. He was so famous and smart in the town that he never had to step out of the town.

As the hoi-polloi of the town go around to other towns for trade, they bring back pictures of archers and archery. Pedro decides to take up archery and soon masters it.

It so happens that some other townspeople come to the town and see the arrows with a perfect bull's eye on the trees around Frias. They enquire and find out about Pedro. And asks Pedro to show the remarkable technique for the perfect bull's eye. Pedro says it is very simple. Shoot the arrow first. Once it pierces the tree and stays there, all one has to do is draw perfect circles around it.

images of Sutra model output in omicron is like Pedro's arrows.
Last edited by disha on 19 Jan 2022 12:33, edited 1 time in total.
disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 8242
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Amber G. wrote:I have posted many graphs about covid trajectory using SUTRA model - for more than 15 months -- to see how good theory and modeling is.
Instead of posting the images, can you post the url where one can plug in the numbers and see the graph behave in real-time? And technically only one number has to be plugged in. The transmissivity. Since some of us, hoi-polloi-who-never-went-to-iit cannot handle more than a data point. Also, once the R0 is determined (remember, the height of peak is immaterial, only the timing of peak), it can be measured against the real deal, validating both the number and the model.

It will be easy given your contacts. The software tools to put it on the cloud are easily available and just a couple of weeks project for an iit-ian.
SinghS
BRFite
Posts: 162
Joined: 11 Jul 2021 20:24

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SinghS »

disha wrote:Sutra in omicron is like Pedro's arrows.
What if Pedro aims seriously for the target and measures the error each time the arrow has hit the tree, comparing the vector of the arrow(input) and the point it has hit the tree (desired outcome). If all the parameters remain same, like wind velocity, the vector of the arrow mounted in the bow, the elasticity of the bow string, he can actually use the error to modify the vector for a better outcome with next shot. This is real.

The devil lies in the details of implementation and the quality of the data.

Disha, maybe you are right, maybe you are wrong. Its good to question the validity of science, because it helps and guides others.

I am going through SUTRA algorithm and also deep diving into Control theory behind it. The idea is to have enough material for an algorithm about infection prediction and possibly a paper. Hopefully, I shall have enough material in 2 weeks to profess my 2 cents on it.

What I have learnt till date is that, SUTRA makes sense and it is not like Pedro's arrow.
Zynda
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2309
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Amber G, have the parameters stabilised enough for SUTRA folks to start displaying graphs on their websites? How does the scenario look for Bangalore? News are reporting that peak for BLR should be sometime this weekend or early next week. Does this concur with Sutra predictions?

Also any further news on outcome of the vaccine mixing for booster shot studies?
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Zynda wrote:Amber G, have the parameters stabilised enough for SUTRA folks to start displaying graphs on their websites? How does the scenario look for Bangalore? News are reporting that peak for BLR should be sometime this weekend or early next week. Does this concur with Sutra predictions?

Also any further news on outcome of the vaccine mixing for booster shot studies?
For Bangalore:
Per model (old parameters) the peak is at 22nd Jan - Some drifting of parameters if you calibrate - not surprising as condition on the ground is changing in substantial way) .., which ought to make actual peak much smaller than shown below.

Image

From what I know (read etc), as you said, there are trials going on in India with Corbevax boosters - among many other choices --recently listened in in USA/INDIA scientists meeting - things look very good as newspapers are reporting. As most know here, vaxing 12 and up is going to start fairly soon.
saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4231
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Any one have experience with Poona's MYLAB's Coviself Rapid Antigen Test? I was staying with my nephew at Hyd for the past few days. Two days back his daughter (5yrs) and his wife developed cough and runny nose. The child also had fever. So we used these kits Coviself and they came out positive. (According to instructions positive results are RELIABLE but not so the negative results.) We got panicky and checked into a Hotel that night. But yday they had themselves got tested with the local lab for RT PCR tests. They both came out negative. So I am confused. What test is reliable?
I noticed the techs who come home to take swabs are not very particular or accurate about noting down personal particulars. When I took my test last month he noted down both gender and age incorrectly. At HYD both certs had incorrect age.
I have to catch a flight back to the USA on 31st. I must get myself tested on 30th.
shaun
BRFite
Posts: 1385
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by shaun »

saip wrote:Any one have experience with Poona's MYLAB's Coviself Rapid Antigen Test? I was staying with my nephew at Hyd for the past few days. Two days back his daughter (5yrs) and his wife developed cough and runny nose. The child also had fever. So we used these kits Coviself and they came out positive. (According to instructions positive results are RELIABLE but not so the negative results.) We got panicky and checked into a Hotel that night. But yday they had themselves got tested with the local lab for RT PCR tests. They both came out negative. So I am confused. What test is reliable?
I noticed the techs who come home to take swabs are not very particular or accurate about noting down personal particulars. When I took my test last month he noted down both gender and age incorrectly. At HYD both certs had incorrect age.
I have to catch a flight back to the USA on 31st. I must get myself tested on 30th.
There must be QC issue with the particular batch , used or the kit itself is unreliable .
nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1638
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

In my case, the self test kit turned in a 'negative ' result one night. But the next day morning nose and throat swabs were taken. The following day RT PCR test showed positive.
vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3986
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Think viral load might be playing tricks with the tests. A colleague reported that the test he took on day 1 barely turned positive almost near the end of the 15 minute reporting period. But the next day when his symptoms were more acute, the test reported positive right away.
nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1638
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

vera_k wrote:Think viral load might be playing tricks with the tests. A colleague reported that the test he took on day 1 barely turned positive almost near the end of the 15 minute reporting period. But the next day when his symptoms were more acute, the test reported positive right away.
Yes, that's probably what it was. What I noticed was on the morning when the sample was taken the temperature was 100.2. It stayed around that level for 3 days. I was prescribed a cocktail of medicines whose clinical efficacy I had no clue. But then that is what doctors are there for. I noticed that Ivermectin was one of the medicines. The temperature subsided after 3 days. After that it was actually below normal. Doctor assured me that too was par for course in viral infections. Since another covid symptom was acute hyperacidity the doctor also prescribed medicine to control acid secretion besides antacid. By 7th day I was clinically normal and RTPCR test returned a negative verdict. Was in complete isolation for 7 days and another 3 days as a matter of abundant caution. All in all I was out of it in 10 days. I guess I was lucky although the two vaccine doses wouldn't have hurt either. I got calls from Corporation health officer and an administration staff wanting to know if I was quarantining myself and also if I needed any assistance. I assured them that I was just fine. But they ended the call by saying that if I needed anything I was free to call their mobile number. The sense I got was that the public infrastructure in Tamilnadu for health is working at least during emergencies.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

nandakumar wrote:
vera_k wrote:Think viral load might be playing tricks with the tests. A colleague reported that the test he took on day 1 barely turned positive almost near the end of the 15 minute reporting period. But the next day when his symptoms were more acute, the test reported positive right away.
Yes, that's probably what it was. What I noticed was on the morning when the sample was taken the temperature was 100.2. It stayed around that level for 3 days. I was prescribed a cocktail of medicines whose clinical efficacy I had no clue. But then that is what doctors are there for. I noticed that Ivermectin was one of the medicines. The temperature subsided after 3 days. After that it was actually below normal. Doctor assured me that too was par for course in viral infections. Since another covid symptom was acute hyperacidity the doctor also prescribed medicine to control acid secretion besides antacid. By 7th day I was clinically normal and RTPCR test returned a negative verdict. Was in complete isolation for 7 days and another 3 days as a matter of abundant caution. All in all I was out of it in 10 days. I guess I was lucky although the two vaccine doses wouldn't have hurt either. I got calls from Corporation health officer and an administration staff wanting to know if I was quarantining myself and also if I needed any assistance. I assured them that I was just fine. But they ended the call by saying that if I needed anything I was free to call their mobile number. The sense I got was that the public infrastructure in Tamilnadu for health is working at least during emergencies.
Is it first time that you got this? Were you exposed to it in the last wave?
nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1638
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

Yes first time. I escaped the last time though I travelled in late June 2021 by air and again in July 21. Both time it was unavoidable.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Good support for COVAXIN in US
Carolyn Barber, MD
@cbarbermd
Why isn’t anyone talking about this? Covaxin submitted an EUA to FDA 11/21 for its vaccine for KIDS 2 YEARS AND UP w/ no myocarditis.

AND it could be a great booster generating broad immunity against whole virus versus just spike.
@EricTopol

@PeterHotez

@DrLeanaWen

@ASlavitt
Quote Tweet
Monica Gandhi MD, MPH
@MonicaGandhi9
· Jan 16
This report clarifies that Covaxin EUA submitted to FDA and would give us vaccine option down to age of two years old
https://wavy.com/news/health/coronaviru ... in-the-us/
https://twitter.com/MonicaGandhi9/statu ... 9393191937

https://twitter.com/mikalche/status/1483441651028836352
arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4570
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Last I knew, the US FDA had closed the door on further EUAs and asked BBIL to apply for a regular approval for Covaxin. As to why they shut the EUA door at that point, one gets a distinct whiff of NPT and CTBT shenanigans.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

arshyam wrote:Last I knew, the US FDA had closed the door on further EUAs and asked BBIL to apply for a regular approval for Covaxin. As to why they shut the EUA door at that point, one gets a distinct whiff of NPT and CTBT shenanigans.
That's right. With Pfizer's no-doubt-benevolent support they ended the process of giving EUAs and required all further applicants to submit a full biological license application instead. That was in May 2021.
Ocugen to pursue a BLA path in the US for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate
Ocugen is Bharat Biotech'a US distribution partner.

Meanwhile:
* Total vaccinations crossed 1.6 billion.
* India caught up with combined Europe in percent of population vaccinated once. Both are now 66%, with North America just ahead at 69%.
* Total vaccinations for the month of January crossed 150 million as of Jan 20. Should cross December's 211 million, but may find it hard to reach September's 239 million.
nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1638
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

Wonder if India will have vaccine Tourism! Americans who have the means can fly down take a shot and throw in Taj Mahal, Kashi as bonus.
srin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2509
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:13

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by srin »

srin wrote:SHQ tested positive last weekend. Pretty mild, relatively speaking - 101F fever, and body ache for a couple of days and then recovered. BBMP called 24 hours later and advised Ivermectin and something else, but she was already much better, so we didn't bother with any of that.
Both of us fully vaccinated 6 months ago with Covaxin.
That tallies with what I'm hearing *annecdotally* from friends too - for those who are fully vacc'ed, it is like a flu. And every case I know is a breakthrough case (Covaxin or Covishield doesn't seem to matter).
An update: Me and my kids also covid positive now :(( Unbelievable body ache. Developed bad throat ache and cough since today morning. Intermittent fever. Daughter has conjunctivitis. So, it is not just the covid, there seems to be secondary infections also accompanying.
Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5352
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

Amber G. wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:
Any idea how Nirmatrelvir compares with Merck's Molnupiravir?
First thing is Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir / ritonavir) is yet not approved in India and even in USA it is very hard to get. Molnupiravir is approved in India - so it is very important what is available.

There are various comparison see for example: https://www.idstewardship.com/compariso ... vid-pills/ to get good basic info -- there are many other such standard texts.

In short - Paxlovid is much more effective (practical sense 'effective-ness" about 90% for reducing hospital stay and extremely effective in preventing death (almost 0 deaths) and in a class by itself - It also works much better for Omicron - (of for any other variant - because of the nature how it works). This compares favorably to about 30% for Molnupiravir (for reducing relative risk for hospitalization) - Like all statistics - doctors should read all the fine-points but yes, there is understandably quite a bit of excitement for Plaxovid type medicine (as it is different than other such medicines).
Basically:

From above the Key takeaways: (See above for reference link for details)

Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir and ritonavir) and molnupiravir are two oral antiviral treatments that are authorized to treat mild to moderate COVID-19.(In USA - In India Paxlovid is not yet approved). These COVID-19 pills are only recommended for people with a high risk of developing severe illness.

Both Paxlovid and molnupiravir are taken by mouth twice daily for 5 days. They should both be started within 5 days of first feeling symptoms.

Studies suggest that Paxlovid can lower the risk of severe COVID-19 for high-risk people by almost 90%.
Studies suggest molnupiravir can lower this risk by about 30%.
Many thanks Amber G for taking the time to do this...much appreciated
Raja
BRFite
Posts: 342
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

Read a hit job from WaPo which credits the past infection for a milder Omicron wave in India "despite having a low vaccination rate." To support their hypothesis they cite an article from October about the vaccination coverage. Forget about normalizing for the fact that India has a much larger population of children than a typical Western country, this idiot could not even be bothered to quickly google present day vaccination coverage of overall population. But I guess this is the current playbook.
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9319
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abi6110

Bhaang/(CBD) to the rescue of mankind?!
CBD is a potent blocker of SARS-CoV-2 replication in human cells, new research shows.
patients taking prescribed CBD found a “significant” negative relationship between CBD consumption and COVID-19 infection.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Good afternoon. A few comments and responses:
srin wrote: ...SHQ tested positive last weekend. Pretty mild, relatively speaking - 101F fever, and body ache for a couple of days and then recovered.
An update: Me and my kids also covid positive now ,,,.
Wishing you and and your family speedy recovery.
Cain Marko wrote:
Amber G. wrote: .. [<snipped comments about Paxlovid ] ...

Studies suggest that Paxlovid can lower the risk of severe COVID-19 for high-risk people by almost 90%.
Studies suggest molnupiravir can lower this risk by about 30%.
Many thanks Amber G for taking the time to do this...much appreciated
You are welcome. I am glad that the information is helpful.
Anujan wrote: ...
That is just another fear-mongering fable... I have two theories that would have led to such fable...
s (

There is a third theory: If my family and friends are anything to go by, the realization that they need vaccines dawns upon them only when there is a severe wave raging, even though they were eligible beforehand. Which means that a few of them get covid during the wave. ..
<snip>
yy
This theory is supported by data .. thanks for presenting a sane theory.
SinghS wrote:

The devil lies in the details of implementation and the quality of the data.
<snip>
What I have learnt till date is that, SUTRA makes sense and it is not like Pedro's arrow.
No it is not. It is not like Jihnn thermodynamics either, so requires math.

Good luck in your in all your efforts with this fairly successful model..

There are enough data points now (for India and USA and Europe) for this phase to become 'stable' -- to understand and evaluate the parameters and make more specific and reliable predictions - interestingly using these powerful mathematical tools, we now have much more understanding of omicron's contagiousness, loss of immunity in general public, effect of vaccinations etc. Lot of this now getting(or will be) published.
saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4231
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

No updates from 22nd? Have we peaked? From 20th to 24th 347,337,333,306,256 (in thousands from Worldometer which sources from MoHFW.in).

I am counting my days from infection and hoping I have dodged the bullet. I stayed with my Sister in Law and her husband from 15th to 18th, On 20th her husband tested positive and on 22nd she too tested positive (both took RT-PCR tests as they developed symptoms). They think they got it from their maid who came to their house last on 14th. On 19th she called and said she, her husband and her child all tested positive. Some guy came to their house and administered tests using home kits which cost around Rs 200/- but charged them each 1000/- (his side business I guess).

So it looks like xi/om has an incubation period of 5 days or more. So far it is six days and counting after contact with my SiL and her husband. So far me and my wife have no symptoms. Hope it will stay that way as I have to catch the crazy AA flight from DEL to JFK on 31st (why crazy? It keeps getting diverted to Bangor, ME every other day). We are flying to DEL on 30th and will take the RT-PCR test there and hope it will be -ve. I learnt you have to take the test one calendar day (not 24 hours) before your flight. That means if your flight is on a Friday, it is OK if you take the test any time on Thursday. So guys, wish me luck.
milindc
BRFite
Posts: 740
Joined: 11 Feb 2006 00:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by milindc »

saip wrote:No updates from 22nd? Have we peaked? From 20th to 24th 347,337,333,306,256 (in thousands from Worldometer which sources from MoHFW.in).

I am counting my days from infection and hoping I have dodged the bullet. I stayed with my Sister in Law and her husband from 15th to 18th, On 20th her husband tested positive and on 22nd she too tested positive (both took RT-PCR tests as they developed symptoms). They think they got it from their maid who came to their house last on 14th. On 19th she called and said she, her husband and her child all tested positive. Some guy came to their house and administered tests using home kits which cost around Rs 200/- but charged them each 1000/- (his side business I guess).

So it looks like xi/om has an incubation period of 5 days or more. So far it is six days and counting after contact with my SiL and her husband. So far me and my wife have no symptoms. Hope it will stay that way as I have to catch the crazy AA flight from DEL to JFK on 31st (why crazy? It keeps getting diverted to Bangor, ME every other day). We are flying to DEL on 30th and will take the RT-PCR test there and hope it will be -ve. I learnt you have to take the test one calendar day (not 24 hours) before your flight. That means if your flight is on a Friday, it is OK if you take the test any time on Thursday. So guys, wish me luck.
The AA flight is at 1 am in morning. The airline staff want to take the test day before so in this case my son was supposed to take it on Friday since his flight was on Saturday 1am. He had taken RT/PCR on Thursday but the airline refused to accept it. Luckily they administer RAT at Delhi airport and give results in 15 minutes. He had to take it before boarding the flight. Just FYI.
saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4231
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Thanks. I do understand that. What the calendar day means is any time previous day. Your son took it TWO calendar days prior. Because the flight is at 1 am it is not much of a help whether it is calendar day or 24 hours. I am taking the test on 30th between 9 & 10 am and the flight is on 31st,
BTW did your son's flight land at JFK OK? Or did it get diverted? I heard that AA forgot to apply for permit to overfly Russia and so it follows a longer route. If it exceeds 16 hours it has to be diverted (Union and FAA rules)
Last edited by saip on 25 Jan 2022 15:59, edited 1 time in total.
saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4231
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Looks like the RAT test center at DEL airport is closed now. Their website says it will open sometime in the future. Your son is lucky.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status ... 1981768705
Vinay Prasad, MD MPH Studio microphoneCamera
@VPrasadMDMPH
NYTimes pandemic coverage is so off the mark, it does not even get the errors correct.

Allow me to detail what the administration REALLY got wrong in 2021
Please read the thread
prasannasimha
Forum Moderator
Posts: 1214
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:22

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by prasannasimha »

Incidentally rapid antigen tests(Lateral Flow tests0 may be negative but RTPCR can be positive. It depends on viral load and test sensitivity. So one need not be surprised that RAT was negative one day and next day it was positive or RAT Negative RTPCR positive9I was RAT negative but RTPCR positive)
milindc
BRFite
Posts: 740
Joined: 11 Feb 2006 00:03

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by milindc »

saip wrote:Thanks. I do understand that. What the calendar day means is any time previous day. Your son took it TWO calendar days prior. Because the flight is at 1 am it is not much of a help whether it is calendar day or 24 hours. I am taking the test on 30th between 9 & 10 am and the flight is on 31st,
BTW did your son's flight land at JFK OK? Or did it get diverted? I heard that AA forgot to apply for permit to overfly Russia and so it follows a longer route. If it exceeds 16 hours it has to be diverted (Union and FAA rules)
He did land at JFK. I didn't even know about the 16 hour FAA rules.
vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3986
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

vijayk wrote:https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status ... 1981768705
Vinay Prasad, MD MPH Studio microphoneCamera
@VPrasadMDMPH
NYTimes pandemic coverage is so off the mark, it does not even get the errors correct.

Allow me to detail what the administration REALLY got wrong in 2021
Please read the thread
This guy lost me when he went off on a tangent about cloth masks. I mean, people used cloth masks in 2021 because N95 mask production was constrained. And it's not as if vaccines were available aplenty in spring 2021 either.
Post Reply