Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Mort Walker
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

The ICMR will determine when to administer covid vaccines to under 18. The ICMR sees no rush as new cases across all of India are now around 2,100 cases and total active cases are 111,481. Diwali rush did not create a 3rd wave and active cases were contained. The US is different issue altogether where a public health disaster is unfolding. The US active case load is increasing to 9.4 million and new infections are near 94,000/day.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

entire europe is struggling with covid. Austria is leading with total lockdown, germany, france next followed by netherlands and other countries.
Most of them eligible population vaccinated X2 still covid is spreading like jungle fire. Which means booster is needed and previous gyan of T cell and long lasting immunity is bogus or europe has given normal saline in place of vaccine.
Only country doing relatively better is UK which has given booster to many people by now .
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^I am following the data/modeling (using SUTRA) of various countries and advantage/need for booster is quite apparent. Israel for example started the policy of booster and results are quite dramatic...(that’s the clear conclusion from Israel.. surviving Delta Variant wave without a lockdown by quickly giving 3rd shot for entire population—everyone age 12 ..Europe hasn’t done that and some nations are now suffering .. countries like Belgium are also widely distributing Boosters)...
Eg for Israel ..
Image

Here promoting the booster is most important. (I will post about this later)..
(Then there's Lancet the study of >728,000 people with 3 shots matched with 720,000 with 2 shots, across all ages, showing significant reduction of deaths, hospitalizations, and severe disease...
Image

Folks .. If you are eligible for booster and confused about to get or not to get a booster - here is my advice (which I have shared will who respects my advice :)... If you are eligible then go get one ASAP.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Sharing this from Lancet about Covaxin.
Effectiveness of an inactivated virus-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, BBV152, in India: a test-negative, case-control study
Background
BBV152 is a whole-virion inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine that has been deployed in India. The results of the phase 3 trial have shown clinical efficacy of BBV152. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of BBV152 against symptomatic RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Methods
We conducted a test-negative, case-control study among employees of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (a tertiary care hospital in New Delhi, India), who had symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 and had an RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 during the peak of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India between April 15 and May 15, 2021. Cases (test-positives) and controls (test-negatives) were matched (1:1) on the basis of age and gender. The odds of vaccination with BBV152 were compared between cases and controls and adjusted for level of occupational exposure (to COVID-19), previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, and calendar time, using conditional logistic regression. The primary outcome was effectiveness of two doses of BBV152 (with the second dose received at least 14 days before testing) in reducing the odds of symptomatic RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, expressed as (1 – odds ratio) × 100%.
Findings
Between April 15 and May 15, 2021, 3732 individuals had an RT-PCR test. Of these, 2714 symptomatic employees had data on vaccination status, and 1068 matched case-control pairs were available for analysis. The adjusted effectiveness of BBV152 against symptomatic COVID-19 after two doses administered at least 14 days before testing was 50% (95% CI 33–62; p<0·0001). The adjusted effectiveness of two doses administered at least 28 days before testing was 46% (95% CI 22–62) and administered at least 42 days before testing was 57% (21–76). After excluding participants with previous SARS-CoV-2 infections, the adjusted effectiveness of two doses administered at least 14 days before testing was 47% (95% CI 29–61).
Interpretation
This study shows the effectiveness of two doses of BBV152 against symptomatic COVID-19 in the context of a huge surge in cases, presumably dominated by the potentially immune-evasive delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings support the ongoing roll-out of this vaccine to help control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, while continuing the emphasis on adherence to non-pharmacological measures.
Whole report: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPd ... %2900674-5
To add to something already commented -
Vaccine effectiveness of Covaxin estimated in the study is lower than the efficacy reported by the recently published phase 3 trial (77.8%) -- As they say this may be
- This study population only included hospital employees who may have a higher risk of exposure than the general population.
- The study was during peak Delta wave.
- The study does not estimate the vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation, severe disease, and death (This is done in the trial)
Another important factor: Vaccine effectiveness changes over time (Takes some time to, becomes more effective and much later may loose the effectiveness / needs booster) and for further study is needed according to these authors.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

Thanks IndraD. The article is interesting. I find it quite astonishing that the CEO of a very large MNC is formally accusing the European politicians of playing politics over a matter of grave public health emergency such as Covid.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

This is the breakthrough in cases in the US. People who have been fully vaccinated and not with the booster. As can be seen, the booster will be mostly effective for those above 18 years of age. What the Sutra model doesn't take into account are long term autoimmune and heart disorders of the under 18 population.There is reason to be cautious of the booster for under 18. Please take the advice of a real scientist that you may personally know.

Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

News today that the government is monitoring a new variant that was detected in visitors to India.

New Covid-19 variant
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^^
vera_k wrote:News today that the government is monitoring a new variant that was detected in visitors to India.

New Covid-19 variant
The 1st variant since Delta that looks quite concerning (IMO) . Awaiting functional assessment data for the impact of extensive spike (and other) mutations. Does not follow the theorized “Delta plus” expected path of a new VoC/variant of interest..Obviously there is lot which we do not know but what *is* known is extremely worrying (even according to people who are normally do not get worried).

The South African Ministry of Health had a live streamed briefing today on the new variant detected there:
<You Tube link for the briefing -- It's about an hour long video >

Few points: - In South Africa it has been detected in Guateng province - positivity rates in Tshwane (part of Guateng) have increased massively in the last 3 weeks from less than 1% to over 30%.
- The variant was identified this week and has been found in three countries so far: Botswana, South Africa and Hong Kong (returning traveller).
-Because of this increase, COVID sequencing has been concentrated on samples from Guateng.
(Almost all recent samples from there (77) have been this new variant taking over from a background of Delta and C.1.2 (also a concerning variant)
-SA had a big Delta surge over June and July but recent rates were very very low. Most recent days have seen early surge, mainly driven by Guateng. -- SA has high levels of prev infection from 3 very large waves but relatively low levels of vaccination (~24% fully vaxxed).
-The sheer increase on these charts is very worrying and suggests that B.1.1.529 might have significant advantages over Delta and C.1.2. What exactly this advantage is and how it breaks down between immune escape and transmissibility is not yet known...

There are some good twitter posts from reputable scientists - for further information...(I saw one good thread by Prof. Christina Pagel)

(It is good that India and other nations started to watch this development).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Given the likely emergence of variants, does the evidence show it more desirable to mix and match vaccines going forward?

My current working assumption is that similar to how the yearly flu vaccine over many years seems to better protect against severe symptoms (even if the current vaccine is not a match for the prevailing strain), using a different vaccine every time for Covid will work better to avoid severe symptoms.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

anishns wrote: AFAIK that was the only batch of Covishields received from India
After that although the US did not approve the Astra-Zeneca vaccine for internal use, they still manufactured the doses and shipped to Canada & Mexico. I myself got one of the US manufactured AZ shots back in April.
Yes, US started sending vaccines to Canada but before that, when Canada PM asked, India rushed shipment of covidshield. (While most/many (those who wanted) of senior citizens in US got their dose in February - even *many* 70+ citizen in Canada were not able to get any vaccines till March/April -- even pfizer second dose interval they increased to 3 months, even then there was much shortage. -- Eg *all* adults in USA in my family now has boosters, while many/most of my family in Canada are still not 6 months out from their last shot. OTOH fully vaccinated rate in Canada is better than US and they are doing relatively better than US).

India stopped exporting vaccines to others after Delta surge in India. Every one understood that obviously need at home takes priority. But by then they have sent some 70 million shots to 95 countries
This produced lot of good will - Remember countries like Brazil, its PM tweeting/thanking India and comparing this gift as "Hanuman's Sanjivani" Image

IIRC Canada's that "minister" (who did not 'phone India') shown in that video was sent by Canada's PM to officially receive the supply for phot-op -- along with nice tweet by the PM.

Countries like US (which did not get vaccines from India) *did* get many other things generously from India at the time of its need.

(This goodwill did not go in vain - I remember at the time of O2 shortage in India - US (government and people-- many people) tried to do whatever we can do to help).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

It is nonsense for anyone to state the US displayed good will toward India and in fact slowed down India's vaccine production in April by denying raw materials. Mathematical modeling is needed to demonstrate how many excess deaths in India were caused by the US actions in April-May 2021 by slowing down India's vaccine production.

U.S. defends restrictions on export of COVID-19 vaccine raw materials amid India's request to lift ban
When asked when the Biden administration would decide on India’s request to lift a ban on the export of vaccine raw materials, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said: “...the United States first and foremost is engaged in an ambitious and effective and, so far, successful effort to vaccinate the American people.”

“That campaign is well underway, and we’re doing that for a couple of reasons. Number one, we have a special responsibility to the American people. Number two, the American people, this country has been hit harder than any other country around the world – more than 550,000 deaths, tens of millions of infections in this country alone,” he said on Thursday.

It is not only in the U.S. interest to see Americans vaccinated; but it is in the interests of the rest of the world to see Americans vaccinated, he said.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03552-w
Botswana variant of Chinese virus new headache!
It has far more mutations for spike proteins on surface.
We are given vaccine which works by triggering immunity response. These would be B & T cell immunity response. B cells make antibodies and release in blood. Antibodies mop up virus as they enter blood stream by recognising particular spike proteins. When mutations changes sequence/nature of these spike proteins, antibodies are not as effective as we want them to be.
Secondly new variant of concern seems to be more infectious. More information will be available in next few months. For now it is sweeping parts of SA.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Only thing which is not the worst kind is that Nu (ν) will be the WHO's name/Greek letter for the new variant. (Easier than B.1.1.529)..nothing else is coming out as any good news..
Guess Nu is better than B.1.1.529 but thats about it .. there is an emergency WHO meeting .. things looks scary even for non-experts..
Image

Sharing a link story from FT. https://www.ft.com/content/57ccc91c-98d ... 010729f715

Data here is *very* preliminary, so everything could change. Nonetheless few quick points from above: (Some comments in "()" are mine - from math perspective)
- This variant is out-competing others *far* faster than Beta and even Delta did.
- This is coinciding with a wider rise in cases in South Africa.
(This is still a small number (and cases in SA overall) but there’s a clear upward trend. This may be a blip, but this is how waves start).
- They say "the other key reason for concern here is that the specific mutations that B.1.1.529 has are — based on what we’ve seen with other variants — known to be associated with greater transmissibility & immune evasion"

( This variant wasn’t known about *last week* and more data is needed in terms of growth rate targeted testing/sequencing )
***
Also sharing the twitter link of Prof Peacock who first raised the alarm.
https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1 ... 74535?s=20
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

There is an alert now for anyone who flew through Qatar Doha International Airport on or near November 11th (or flew from South Africa-DOH or DOH-HKG on qatarairways Flight 818 during that time—"quarantine yourself immediately & get PCR tested! " B11529 traced to those two flights (Doha airport connection)..

****
Just got curious, so looked at the data - Both passengers (HK -SouthAfrica flight) were vaxxed (Pfizer 2 doses in May/June - not boosted - almost 6 months passed) .. One wasn’t discovered until 4th day of quarantine on 2nd PCR. Another guest across hallway cross-infected—only positive on 8th day on 4th PCR test - .. he viral load of these two were VERY high. PCR Ct values of 18 and 19!!! (That’s insanely high considering they were negative on recent PCR tests -- First time it looks like vaccine evasion could be real with this variant.. hope this is not the case..)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

>>>In a communication to all states and Union Territories, Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said India’s National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has informed the government that “multiple cases of a Covid-19 variant B.1.1529 have been reported in Botswana (3 cases), South Africa (6 cases) and Hong Kong (1 case)”
https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... a-7641761/
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

Oh man, this is getting scary again. GoI and few other govts seem to be taking it very seriously.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

Amber G. wrote:>>>In a communication to all states and Union Territories, Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said India’s National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has informed the government that “multiple cases of a Covid-19 variant B.1.1529 have been reported in Botswana (3 cases), South Africa (6 cases) and Hong Kong (1 case)”
https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... a-7641761/
Why is India not banning travel from any country where this is found? If this is as dangerous as it seems, we need to slow its spread in India before a new vaccine is found.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

In the end it is about personal risk appetite. I am not sure if the tradeoff between heart complications of Pfizer and benefits of a booster are worth it. I am not doubting the usefulness of a booster dose or its benefit, just the risk associated with Pfizer. Perhaps go for another vaccine?

What do other more knowledgable members think?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chanakyaa »

News today that the government is monitoring a new variant that was detected in visitors to India.

New Covid-19 variant
Here we go again, new variant, renewed scare....Whats up with these “alleged” deadly variants only popping up in the former British!t colonized countries (SA, HK, Boswana ityadi)? Especially, South Africa seems to have turned into mutation laboratory. Not that these countries are necessarily proven to be the origins, but why not Nicaragua, Paraguay, Uzbekistan, former Italian or French colonies (no new inventions since Ebola)? Don’t people in these countries breathe? Anyway, someone has figured out that such news on variants can be massively peddled in the mainstream media, forcing governments to buy new round of billions in vaccines, stock market is sold at top and bought back 10%-20% off. More than the variant itself (may be), this soon-to-perfected cycle is likely to be more deadly for world and commerce. Sadly, given the wrath in few waves the governments can’t turn a blind eye. So much of energy, resources, manpower need to be suddenly deployed to ensure safety. One wrong or late move, can bring down elected governments (UP22, GE24)
Last edited by chanakyaa on 26 Nov 2021 16:44, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by a_bharat »

Study shows the possibility of coronary diseases increase significantly after receiving mRNA Covid-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna

Increase of PULS score from 11% to 25% (whatever it means)

Studies with adverse results not being sent for publication for fear of losing research money.

This is from opindia, so, take it with a grain of salt.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sonugn »

a_bharat wrote:Study shows the possibility of coronary diseases increase significantly after receiving mRNA Covid-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna

Increase of PULS score from 11% to 25% (whatever it means)

Studies with adverse results not being sent for publication for fear of losing research money.

This is from opindia, so, take it with a grain of salt.
Article quotes a GBNews interview with Dr Aseem Malhotra:-

https://twitter.com/i/status/1463926037889396736
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

South African Rand is under pressure and is devaluating. Several EU countries have banned travel to and from SA. The US is still open. India needs to ban SA travel immediately. Stock and oil futures have dropped today as markets are spooked by this variant.

UK scientists have said R value of this strain is 2. Very alarming.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

PULS measure some bio markers associated with high risk atherosclerotic vascular lesions.


The problem with the reported study is really one of epistemology.


The test was developed under a defined set of conditions yet this team has chosen to apply it to a much different population. Hence there is a question of validity. A much better endpoint would be actual myocardial infarcts. But there also is a major problem of confounding.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

sanjaykumar wrote:PULS measure some bio markers associated with high risk atherosclerotic vascular lesions.


The problem with the reported study is really one of epistemology.


The test was developed under a defined set of conditions yet this team has chosen to apply it to a much different population. Hence there is a question of validity. A much better endpoint would be actual myocardial infarcts. But there also is a major problem of confounding.
Sanjaykumarji,

Could you please clarify in simpler language? All I understood is

Epistemology - study of knowledge from a philosophical perspective

Then the heart study is being applied to a population in such a manner that underlying assumptions of original study make that application invalid.

But not much more than that…
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Vaccination has picked up pace this week, on track to end the week with over 50 million doses. Both first and second doses have picked up. Approx 2.5m first doses and 5m second doses each day this week, with Wednesday seeing an all time high of 6.6 million second doses done, and 9.2 million total.

It looks like govt has found more first dose candidates now, and aggressive efforts must be undertaken to completely cover first dose adult candidates by year-end.

There's also an ongoing debate on opening up vaccinations to children. Both Covaxin and Corbevax are at the closing stages of approval. I hope this is done as soon as the Bio-E Corbevax is approved - the combination of Covaxin and Corbevax will offer at least 100m doses a month to target vaccination of children.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SriKumar »

The new variant cannot be stopped, only its entry can be delayed. Even with restrictions on, the Delta variant came to all countries. Good to see alteast some people taking it seriously (if the Delta variant and hte oxygen shortage had not happened. it would have been a different story).

So the new vairant is highly contagious. Any word on how bad it is, i.e. outcomes resulting in death; or permanent injury after recovery.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

Manindra Agrawal
@agrawalmanindra
The reason numbers did not rise much despite such high beta is that ~80% population was already immune by mid-September (not counting vaccination induced immunity). Numbers have risen over past week or so, likely due to further increase in reach.
Manindra Agrawal
@agrawalmanindra
Will there be a sharp rise in SA? If simulation numbers are correct, nu variant has been around for more than a month but has not breached natural immunity so far. If this continues, one should not expect significant rise in SA. Next few weeks would tell and are crucial.
hanumadu
@hanumadu
Replying to
@agrawalmanindra
What percentage of India has natural immunity?
Manindra Agrawal
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Replying to
@hanumadu
Around 80% as per our estimate.
Keeping fingers crossed.

It does seem that letting the initial milder versions go through the population might have some advantages in the long term.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hanumadu »

Letting the Delta wave run through India seems to be a well considered and deliberate decision.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Suraj wrote:There's also an ongoing debate on opening up vaccinations to children. Both Covaxin and Corbevax are at the closing stages of approval. I hope this is done as soon as the Bio-E Corbevax is approved - the combination of Covaxin and Corbevax will offer at least 100m doses a month to target vaccination of children.
I am puzzled at what the hold-up is. IIRC, the legal age for employment is 14, and 17 year old children can be in college. Vaccinations for either of these ages should start soon as this age group is likely to be in contact with more people compared to younger children.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

SriKumar wrote: So the new vairant is highly contagious. Any word on how bad it is, i.e. outcomes resulting in death; or permanent injury after recovery.
Let me summarize what we know. This is based on thoughts/discussion/write_ups of scientists I respect and trust. It is very good that SA has been extremely transparent, sharing all the data. Also it was *very* good that Honk Kong still has extremely good quarantine and PCR testing of *all* travelers. (The data about vaccine status of those two people, environment study of the hotel and where those people stayed etc..and good data about the region in Africa).

Anyway, here are some key points: (Please save this post).

Every few months there are stories about a new variant .. (ironically this variant is called 'Nu').
Most turn out to not be much but this new variant Nu is is concerning.

What do we know so far? Not much but we do know a few things.

(When it comes to variants, we ought to focus on three things)

1. Is it more transmissible than current strain (Delta)? (Sutra Model's beta will increase).
2 Does it cause more severe disease? (Hospital stay/deaths etc) (Sutra Model's eta variable)
3 Does have it more immune escape (will it render prior infections or vaccines less effective)? (Sutra Model's beta and rho)


1 - On transmissibility - I am worried - data look worrisome.
- It has taken off quickly in South Africa.
Image

This and other graphs look concerning.

But with case numbers in SA low right now and this rapid takeover could be driven by other factors.
(In short am worried BUT NOT SURE .. we need to further data (week or so)

(I have seen some very alarming figures from reputable virologists - some estimating (theoretically) it as a factor of 4 or more than Delta - as bad as measles but actual data is very sparse IMO).

2 - Is this causes more severe disease.
We (current scientist's thinking) have no idea. It is too early to tell but obviously we have to track and watch.

3 - About immune escape:

(Do antibodies generated have a harder time to neutralizing it? What about T-cells and their ability to manage infections? etc. Should we be worried about Covaxin/Covidshield/natural_immunigy not working etc..)

Short answer? We don't know but there is at least some reason for concern. It is *very* unlikely that it will render vaccines useless, but some are concerned that there are a series of mutations in key regions that may impact effectiveness of our vaccines.

(Obviously more data is needed but the 2 individual - both had 2 shots of pfizer but no booster. They did not have any symptoms - mandatory test caught this - viral load after 3-4 days was extremely high - Hotel rooms had lot of virus still in air samples and surfaces).

****
Advice: Track this closely. We will know more in coming days/weeks.
Please ignore both the groups - those who will spread fear and those who downplay.

This variant is concerning. We should ramp up testing ( PCR tests will still work) especially at airports etc..

And yes, It *will* arrive in India (and USA). PCR test should help us track when it arrives and we must stay vigilant.

Meanwhile:
- Get vaccinated, boosted as soon as you are eligible.
- Get the world vaccinated as fast as possible.

I am looking to get more data to better understand what (if anything) we need to do differently..I also feel very optimistic that both India and USA are doing most things correctly.
Last edited by Amber G. on 27 Nov 2021 01:40, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

^ The variant is now named Omicron. Governments are acting swiftly, which should slow the spread. World might need to replicate tactic used in India to get everyone at least one dose of a vaccine at the earliest.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Yes. Also WHO has classified at as VoC. (Variant of Concern)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

There has been sufficient time and also SA resources seem to be adequate to provide preliminary data on virulence of omicron.

Perhaps it’s not that alarming.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile another disappointing news from Merck.. Updated data for efficacy of their Molnupiravir pill in full trial drops down to 30% from 50% (absolute reduction to 3 from 7 per 100)

Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics Provide Update on Results from MOVe-OUT Study of Molnupiravir, an Investigational Oral Antiviral Medicine, in At Risk Adults With Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19
parshuram
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by parshuram »

As of now very less data is available on Variant . Although all the prelim studies theoretically suggest it is VOC and more transmissible . Good Thread from SA https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1463 ... 09444.html

For now all alarms are based on predications and lab models and cases seen in small clusters .(Not undermining the danger though ) . This is how wave starts
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

hanumadu wrote:
Manindra Agrawal
@agrawalmanindra
<snip> If simulation numbers are correct, nu variant has been around for more than a month but has not breached natural immunity so far. If this continues, one should not expect significant rise in SA. Next few weeks would tell and are crucial.
The *key* word from prof Agrawal's post, as I also said in my previous post is "Next few weeks would tell and are crucial..Anyway I hope he posts again shortly and starts posting more on his twitter feed .. as many people will like more updates. (Omicron has been around for some time but the alarm was raised only recently - Thanks to virologists like Peacock etc and SA to make it public.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

hanumadu wrote:Letting the Delta wave run through India seems to be a well considered and deliberate decision.
I don't think anyone did it deliberately..A good understanding is IITK study which discusses/examines "UP Model" (vs say "Kerala Model").
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile The U.S. will impose travel restrictions on eight southern African countries in response to the new Omicron COVID variant, barring most foreign nationals who have been in those countries within the last 14 days..https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-imp ... 021-11-26/

Canada has also imposed travel restrictions on 7 countries.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile: On Vaccine/Omicron front - All are busy to see how effective the vaccine is with this variant.
Covidshield/AstraZeneca examining impact of new COVID variant on vaccine.
Pfizer/BioNTech expect data on shot's protection against new COVID-19 variant soon.
(Similar reports for other vaccines).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

pfizer, moderna, oxford can quickly tweak vaccine to make it effective against new variants , they are already trying to ascertain effectiveness of vaccine against omicron https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... eeded?s=09
BioNTech says it could produce and ship an updated version of its vaccine within 100 days if the new Covid variant detected in southern Africa is found to evade existing immunity.

The biotechnology company is already investigating whether the vaccine it developed with Pfizer works well against the variant, named Omicron, which has caused concern due to its high number of mutations and initial suggestions that it could be transmitting more quickly.

The company says it will know in two weeks whether its current vaccine is likely to be sufficiently effective against the B.1.1.529 variant, now named Omicron by the World Health Organization, based on lab-based experiments.

“Pfizer and BioNTech have taken actions months ago to be able to adapt the mRNA vaccine within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days in the event of an escape variant,” the company said in a statement.

The US company Moderna said it was testing three existing Covid-19 vaccine booster candidates against the Omicron variant, and that it would develop a new variant-specific vaccine against it.

“From the beginning, we have said that as we seek to defeat the pandemic, it is imperative that we are proactive as the virus evolves. The mutations in the Omicron variant are concerning and for several days, we have been moving as fast as possible to execute our strategy to address this variant,” said Stéphane Bancel, Moderna’s chief executive.

Other vaccine teams, including Johnson & Johnson, also confirmed on Friday that they were testing the effectiveness of their vaccines against the new variant to assess whether updates were likely to be required. AstraZeneca said it is already conducting research in Botswana and Eswatini, where the variant has been identified, to collect real-world data on how the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine performs against the new variant.

At the moment, concerns about a decline in protection are theoretical based on the very high number of mutations – double that seen in Delta – on the spike protein that the vaccine targets.

Human immune systems make a variety of antibodies that target several different places on the spike, so even if one bit of the spike changes, a vaccine will still typically work well.

However, in B.1.1.529, nearly all the sites that antibodies target are different, and so scientists are particularly concerned this version could turn out to be an “escape variant”.

Prof Wendy Barclay, a virologist at Imperial College London, said the emergence of the variant made it even more crucial for people to access existing vaccines and have second and third doses. “Sometimes quantity [of antibodies] can compensate for the lack of match,” she said. “That is the only vaccine that’s available to us at the moment. We need to make that work as best as we can.”

Vaccines based on mRNA, such as the BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, are thought to be the easiest to alter. But most companies have been preparing for the eventuality of a so-called escape variant and have ambitious timeframes for distributing an updated vaccine, if deemed medically necessary and commercially feasible.

So far, vaccines have held up well against new variants, such as Beta and Delta, but the emergence of these variants served as practice runs.

BioNTech/Pfizer and AstraZeneca are already running clinical trials on tweaked vaccines and discussing with regulators what new evidence would be needed to support their approval.

“Pfizer and BioNTech … have begun clinical trials with variant-specific vaccines (Alpha and Delta) to collect safety and tolerability data that can be provided to regulators as part of the blueprint studies in the event of an needed variant-specific vaccine,” the companies said in a statement.

Johnson & Johnson, which has developed a single-shot Covid vaccine and is selling it on a not-for-profit basis, like AstraZeneca, said: “We are closely monitoring newly emerging Covid-19 virus strains with variations in the Sars-CoV-2 spike protein and are already testing the effectiveness of our vaccine against the new and rapidly spreading variant first detected in southern Africa.

“We remain steadfast in the benefit the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine will provide to millions around the world.”
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