Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Apr 2021 06:51

There are two components to the capital costs here - the frontloaded cost into scaling up production facilities, and the cost per dose. They're separate things, and both require involvement of the government. Pfizer got almost $2 billion last year for vaccine development, and then they still charge ~$20 a dose. The Baltimore factory where millions of AZ and J&J vaccines were spoiled, received $630 million as part of a federal contract to expand capacity for vaccine production.

What SII and BB ask for in order to scale up production is incredible value in comparison, something GoI should write an immediate cheque for and encourage them to expand capacity. SII states ~100M vaccines a month from May . Bharat Biotech wants to raise production 7-10x from its current 5-10M a month.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 08 Apr 2021 07:05

Kakkaji wrote:Transcript of wide-ranging interview with Adar Poonawalla. Lot of good information:

Vaccine industry has sacrificed billions of dollars to support the nation: Adar Poonawalla

we have to cover the vulnerable first whilst also trying to find ways of cutting transmission etc. etc. Now, do we have enough vaccines to cover everybody ---absolutely not, nobody in the world has it, no country has it, we do not have it because you are talking about 1.3 billion people multiplied by two.

We have a capacity of 60 to 70 million doses which we hope to ramp up in the next 2-3 months partly with the government proposal and through borrowing money from banks to build an additional plant and facility that will take at least three months to churn out product. In the interim we are relying on our existing capacity and other vaccine manufacturers in India who will also supply some doses so this is where we are at the moment. Opening up more than this age group of 45 is a very tough decision to make-- there is no right or wrong answer. Right now, we have to go with what we have in hand which is the vaccine supply and vulnerable people that you have to protect before the younger population.

Tamanna Inamdar: In previous interviews - you talked about 60 mn capacities that you were hoping to increase to 100 mn by February. What are the causes of delays that we are seeing and do you have a timeline in mind for when these new capacities can be added?

Adar Poonawalla: At that time when we had the fire incident, we said the existing vaccine capacities would not be affected. In March, we wanted this extra capacity to come about for India and you know global capacity has been pushed back because of the fire by two- two and a half months which is why in June --you will get that additional 40 to 50 million doses per month coming up.

Now, we are trying to claw that time back as much as possible but it is the 85 days cycle from the time to start manufacturing. If we start today, it will take us three months from today to deliver those doses in a filled, packed, tested form which can actually go out to different states. We never imagined that we will need so many doses in India because we did not imagine this kind of surge happening from where new challenge is coming. We hope to launch our Novavax product -which is called Covovax by September so this is where we are at the moment.

Tamanna Inamdar: You have said this before that you are not looking at as manufacturer of this vaccine, you are doing this to save lives but the fact is that this is a business that requires investments. Is there enough incentive right now for you to ramp up capacity with the vaccine prices being capped at Rs 150?

Adar Poonawalla: So initially, when this was agreed between vaccine manufacturers and the Government of India --we have done it with the view that we need to support India during this crisis and profits can be made after few months when it opens up to the private market. Right now, we need to support the Modi government in this Herculean task of vaccinating everybody and protecting the poor, the vulnerable and everyone else. So the vaccine industry has sacrificed billions of dollars of profits because we want to support the Modi government in this endeavour in providing this vaccine at this price.

This is a temporary measure for a few months, this is not sustainable for the long term. We have done this in the interest of the nation to be short and precise. You know the average price for this commodity is $20-$30 but we do not care about that, we are doing this to support our nation in a time of crisis and then we will see after two or three months when we can review all of this to a more sustainable level where the industry can innovate, can use its profits to build more factories in the future, to employ more people all that we are hoping to do after few months. This is just a temporary phase where we need to do what the nation needs us to do.
IMHO if the GoI keeps insisting on a price of Rs 150/ dose, there will not be enough new capacity coming up on line to cover the population of India. Not just SII, but other private players will also find it tough to supply at Rs 150 per dose.

The purse strings will have to be loosened a bit. The cost of not having enough vaccine in time is a lot more.

Basically the GoI has cocked up the vaccination and indians will suffer through a terrible covid summer, if it is sitting on a proposal from SII to expand vaccine manufacturing for a paltry sum of $500 million. This should have been approved way back in mid 2020. For the first time since 2014, I am deeply disappointed. Half of the cabinet needs to be fired for this blunder which we shall pay for dearly. Only 70-100mill vaccines a month! The health minister, that blithering moron harshvardhan, has to go.

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 08 Apr 2021 07:54

sudeepj: Basically the GoI has cocked up the vaccination and indians will suffer through a terrible covid summer, if it is sitting on a proposal from SII to expand vaccine manufacturing for a paltry sum of $500 million.

What exactly is this cockup here? The article indicates that the fire in SII set them back more than any funding.

Agreed that SII margins are not so great, and it is a thing to be appreciated that SII willing to forgo higher margins to supply it to India at cost.

However, SII is going to have more than enough opportunities from now on to make up for it, given that the demand from now on is going to be steady and for a long time, since these vaccines are going to be a regular annual thing than a one-time vaccine.

The article suggests that the fire that set them back by a few months is responsible for the reduction in output now, hoping to recover by June.

Adar Poonawalla: At that time when we had the fire incident, we said the existing vaccine capacities would not be affected. In March, we wanted this extra capacity to come about for India and you know global capacity has been pushed back because of the fire by two- two and a half months which is why in June --you will get that additional 40 to 50 million doses per month coming up.

Some states have screwed up execution and are now pointing fingers. Other than the vaccines, the other main resource needed is health care specialists (HCS) to dispense vaccines and having more vaccines than HCS results in vaccine wastage. Just producing lots of vaccines does not equate to dispensing them before they get wasted.

HCS were responsible for non-COVID vaccinations earlier, and GoI had already laid out the priority for vaccinations, which placed HCS above others, so they could be safe while doing their job. It is nonsensical to claim that everyone could be vaccinated if only there were more vaccines available, without taking into account other resources that need to be in place to achieve that.

The graph from Suraj-ji's twitter timeline suggests India's is doing extremely well, and certainly not so shabby as to require a change of guard.
No country other than China even comes close to the rate of vaccinations and the ramp up/rate of increase day over day.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyWZqhtUUAE ... name=large

I guess it is just the fashion to blame the government without recognizing that the public has to cooperate with the government for things to go well. What we have is fools in the Indian public going without masks and pretending that vaccinations should not be prioritized by age/vulnerability factors. The cretins in the Aam Aadmi Party are actually protesting in a crowd that GoI should vaccinate everyone without taking basic precautions like wearing a mask -- how is the govt. responsible for such irresponsible behavior by the public at large?

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 08 Apr 2021 08:51

Yesterday Apr 7th, 29,79,292 were vaccinated as per MoHFW website report at 8:00am today Apr 8th.

Total number of tests done during the previous day 12,08,329

Figures in bracket below is change from previous day (Apr 6th to 7th)

Total Vaccination : 9,01,98,673 (29,79,292 )
Active (6.59%) 843473 (55250)
Discharged (92.11%) 11792135 (59856)
Deaths (1.30%) 166177 (630)

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 08 Apr 2021 08:54

Indians are not known for exponential curve in such things. we will progress linearly

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 08 Apr 2021 09:14

Deleted

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 08 Apr 2021 09:15

Mort Walker wrote:g.sarkar,
My wife got Moderna and she too have flu like symptoms for 3 days after her 2nd dose. You will get better. No worries, you're safe.

Thanks Mortji, it was as you said, I was better after 3 days. Stay safe,
Gautam

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Apr 2021 09:27

Quoting what Uttam posted earlier:

The Indian population pyramid shows that the over 60 population is under 10%. The 45-60 population is 15% .

Latest vaccination data shows almost 36 million of the over 60 pop and almost 23 million of the 45-60 group have gotten at least one vaccination. By end of month, without increasing the current 3m/day rate, about 40-45% of this group will have been vaccinated at least once. Given than inter vaccination interval is 7-8 weeks it means over April-May, a substantial majority of the group most at risk of death will have been vaccinated at least once.

Vaccine production is about 80 million per month at most. But it will improve in about 2 months. During that same timeframe, at 3m/day we can cover nearly the whole at risk group

Given the situation, it makes sense to continue restrictions to get the most coverage of the at risk group in the shortest time possible. Yes there will be exceptions like the under 45 with conorbidities and I think those should also be added.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 08 Apr 2021 09:36

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/me ... r-BB1fpR66
Mexico, Brazil won't limit AstraZeneca vaccine after UK warning
Jordan Williams, April 7, 2021.
Mexico and Brazil do not plan on limiting access to AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine after the United Kingdom's drug regulator recommended doing so amid a potential risk of blood clots.
The statements come after the U.K's Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) recommended that the vaccine only be used in people over the age of 30 due to the potential link to rare blood clots.The agency said it reviewed 79 reports of rare blood clots after the vaccine was administered, with 19 deaths. Eleven out of the 19 who died were under the age of 50, while three were under the age of 30.
Cofepris, Mexico's drug regulator, said that it is still reviewing the recommendations. However, it does "not plan to limit the use of AstraZeneca vaccines to any age or group," Reuters reported. Mexico has acquired 3.5 million doses of the vaccine so far.
Meanwhile, Brazil's health regulator Anvisa said the benefits of the vaccine outweighed its risk, and recommended its continued use. The news outlet noted that Brazil has administered over 4 million shots of the vaccine, and has only registered 47 clotting events.
......
Gautam

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 08 Apr 2021 10:04

for those who have got 2 jabs.. how long does the immunity last?? i mean will these vax drives be now a permanent /recurring feature?

Manas · Post by **Manas** » 08 Apr 2021 10:36

manjgu wrote:for those who have got 2 jabs.. how long does the immunity last?? i mean will these vax drives be now a permanent /recurring feature?

According to press reports - the post 6 month data for Pfizer seems to suggest that the immunity, antibody levels are quite high & protective 6 months after 2 jabs. While scientists have theories I have not heard any scientist definitively assert that immunity will last for years.

However, there is a whole discussion on "T cell" immunity which from what I understand is the body having "memory" of the virus so even though there may not be active anti bodies a year/two years after vaccinations the body will be able to fight off a new infection.

Knowing what we know about the flu viruses and its variants and many of us that religiously get a flu jab early in the flu season - we may well end up getting a yearly booster jab for COVID. As with Flu only about 40% of the U.S. population takes flu vaccines. Most young people cough/sneeze/rest a couple days out of it. However around 50K people in the U.S. die of flu in bad flu years, 10's of thousands more around the world. But countries around the world dont lock down their economies during the flu season.

In essence, once most countries around the world achieve herd immunity (bound happen sooner in U.S., other developed countries with smaller populations vs developing countries) COVID will/should become endemic and would induce no more fear than a regular flu. This will be more so as the vulnerable get vaccinated and are more prone to take booster shots.

Also with all the focus on vaccines - people arent talking much about therapeutics any more. There are several anti virals (beyond the monoclonal antibodies and remdesivir) in active clinical trials. I have read that a Merck anti viral is highly effective and promising enough to be considered a potential "cure". Getting such therapeutics and hopefully licensing it to other pharma companies (like the Indian generic majors) will make it widely available around the world hence will reduce the fear of COVID in 4-5 months.

The only way to get back to normal is herd immunity - either through vaccines or through people getting infected and developing resistance. Lockdowns are a temporary measure to slow the spread and nothing more. As we have seen in 10's of countries the virus comes roaring back as soon as the lockdown ease as long as it has a target base to infect that does not yet have resistance/immunity.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 08 Apr 2021 11:49

So is there or is there not a vaccine scarcity? There seems to be a lack of transparency about available capacity and stocks. It's hard to separate politics from the reality.

A Deshmukh · Post by **A Deshmukh** » 08 Apr 2021 11:55

what about other companies?
if there is spare capacity, BB/SII vaccine can be manufactured by other companies.
why should everything be dependent on SII?

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 08 Apr 2021 12:42

The die appears to be cast. Probably need to ship equipment and personnel from other parts of India that have spare capacity. A lockdown was necessary here 2 weeks ago.

Heavy Covid load sees all 97 private Nagpur hospitals run out of ventilators

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 08 Apr 2021 13:31

sajo wrote:Yesterday the significant other spent a large amount of time working the phones to get a ventilator bed for an ex-colleague's father, and after almost a full day after the need was felt, a bed was finally arranged in a satellite town/suburb late at night.

The said person passed away yesterday night. Yet another case of a person who was vaccinated in the first week of March yet, succumbed to COVID a month after the shot and about a week after he started out with symptoms that I personally got to know of.
I am not at all blaming the senior citizens for assuming that the vaccine amounts to diddly squat given how their peers are falling prey in good numbers. Trying my best to counter the whatsapp based FUD whenever encountered.
I am seriously suspecting the vaccination points to be superspreader sites, with seniors and vulnerable people stepping out and into decent amount of crowds for the first time and crowds acting as source multipliers for an infection. That, and vaccine potency being compromised in many cases as member Tanaji suspects due to improper handling.
Which is why even in places where a good portion of citizens are supposed to be immunized, even after a month and some, the numbers do not seem be abating at all.
Over 11.5 Lakh citizens have been immunized in Pune, and about 1 lakh have received both doses. With a population of ~68 lakhs, we should have had a decent portion of seniors citizens with atleast 1 shot. Hoping and fervently praying that numbers start to taper off atleast the number of fatalities. As per daily stats published by the mayor, deaths are already at the peak 2020 levels and increasing everyday, with 0 ventilators and 0 ICU beds available anywhere in the city.

sudeepj wrote: When did these people get the vaccine? It takes about three weeks for the antibodies to be generated, and focus itself incubates on average for 5-7 days. If they get infected one or two weeks after the first dose, it's not going to be any help.

The said people started showing symptoms from a week to upto a month after the first jab.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 08 Apr 2021 14:54

sajo wrote: I am seriously suspecting the vaccination points to be superspreader sites, with seniors and vulnerable people stepping out and into decent amount of crowds for the first time and crowds acting as source multipliers for an infection.
...
The said people started showing symptoms from a week to upto a month after the first jab.

I am afraid of this, knowing the vaccination process followed at 3 hospitals (all large, private ones). There is a strong correlation with surge in covid cases and the vaccination drive. This hypothesis can be easily proved or disproved using the data. Govt should look at the data and streamline the vaccination process and minimize the time spent at the vaccination centres.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 08 Apr 2021 16:04

These anecdotal examples are meaningless. Without population level survey, it meaningless (or worse) to make such speculations.

dbhavik · Post by **dbhavik** » 08 Apr 2021 16:16

a_bharat wrote:
sajo wrote: I am seriously suspecting the vaccination points to be superspreader sites, with seniors and vulnerable people stepping out and into decent amount of crowds for the first time and crowds acting as source multipliers for an infection.
...
The said people started showing symptoms from a week to upto a month after the first jab.
I am afraid of this, knowing the vaccination process followed at 3 hospitals (all large, private ones). There is a strong correlation with surge in covid cases and the vaccination drive. This hypothesis can be easily proved or disproved using the data. Govt should look at the data and streamline the vaccination process and minimize the time spent at the vaccination centres.

I cannot agree more. Someone needs to look into the possibility that vaccination centers might be responsible for Covid transmissions. I tested Covid Positive today and the way the events unfolded, I have little doubt that I caught it at the hospital where I got the first jab.

Got the Jab last Friday and as expected, experienced mild fever and bodyache on Saturday and Sunday and was absolutely well on Monday. However, high fever, malaise, bodyaches and sore throat returned with a vengence on Tuesday and persisted all day long. Went for RTPCR on Wednesday and tested positive. Before the Vaccine, didn't have the slightest hint of symptoms. I also found that 3 of my friends and distant relatives tested positive within the first week of getting the vaccine. Coincidence? May be, but it's worth investigating.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 08 Apr 2021 17:41

Raja wrote:These anecdotal examples are meaningless. Without population level survey, it meaningless (or worse) to make such speculations.

Yep. Could be. More analysis and determination from the date of the first jab till the appearance of symptoms needs to be done. Should be easy enough as Arogya Setu captures both the jab date as well as the date one tests +ve.

Here is a screengrab from my own Arogya Setu, supposedly used for contact tracing. I have not been ANYWHERE before or after my last hospital visit for vaccination of my mother, so I know 90% of these numbers are from the hospital visit itself. It captured around 91 contacts (seems to be showing a reduced number today), out of which atleast 4 were determined to be high risk as they may have come across a COVID +ve case long enough for their phones to pair. And I was trying to keep my distance, wearing a mask and in general waiting in the relatively less crowded waiting area as compared to the crowds and queues inside. There would be many more people who were not using the app, or not giving it correct permissions, which are not showing up in my contacts but were there nonetheless.

I am sorry if my post comes across as another he-said she-said types trying to spread FUD, but that is the last thing on my mind.

@dbhavik ji , please take care. Hope you make a very very speedy recovery.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 08 Apr 2021 17:56

That is quite interesting. It seems quite concerning especially from your POV as you have been socially isolating yourself. However, I wonder how does it compare to an average person's daily exposure.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 08 Apr 2021 18:27

Actor Paresh Rawal and yesteryears actress Nagma are covid positive, both are reported to be doing well and are self-isolating. Add Sachin Tendulkar, Akshay Kumar, Sanjay Dutt, Ananya Pandey and many other celebrities who are now covid positive, if so many of the well-heeled celebrities who have the luxury of isolating and not working are contracting the virus, it makes me wonder about regular people who have to work for a living. At what point do we hit herd immunity ? The night curfews and weekend lockdowns being imposed by states will not help. The destruction of our economy is doing a far greater and more long lasting damage than the pandemic. The good news is CFR even in MH is 1/3rd of what it was last year, the bad news is despite repeated warnings that Mar-Jul will bring flu none of the states look prepared for O2 demand, ICUs with ventilators, ambulances and staffing, so we are losing a lot of patients who could otherwise be saved.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 08 Apr 2021 20:35

Ambar wrote:Actor Paresh Rawal and yesteryears actress Nagma are covid positive, both are reported to be doing well and are self-isolating. Add Sachin Tendulkar, Akshay Kumar, Sanjay Dutt, Ananya Pandey and many other celebrities who are now covid positive, if so many of the well-heeled celebrities who have the luxury of isolating and not working are contracting the virus,..

Ambar ji, part of the reason is they have lot of staff (servants, maids, assistants, secretaries, managers etc) and also have been stepping out for work.. most of them have undertaken inter-city travel as well.

But yes, your concerns are very valid. This wave is spreading much faster and the situation is grim. I reside in suburban Mumbai. The past entire year (march 2020 to feb 2021) my apartment complex had a grand total of 4 COVID patients (1 death - an old lady). These past 3 weeks alone we have had 6 cases. All are recovering well, so that is the heartening part.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 Apr 2021 20:59

Arvind Gupta
@buzzindelhi
For the mathematically oriented ::
0. Population above 45 ~ 330m
1. India started with a stockpile of around 100m doses in Jan2021.
2. Production capacity till End of June 2021 is 66m * 6 = 396m doses
3. Exported under grants and IP obligations - 80m doses 1/2

Arvind Gupta
@buzzindelhi

Replying to
@buzzindelhi
4. Consumed till now ~ 90m doses
5. Availability till June ~ 326m doses
6. India can vaccinate 4m/day without any additional capacity or new approvals.
7. Double vaccinated target till June ~ 205m population/410m doses
8. CFR >45yrs is 2.86%, <45 is .29%
Prioritisation is key!!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 Apr 2021 21:02

R Jagannathan @TheJaggi

This is the quality of comments we saw when vaccinations just began. Now of course as supplies go tight he will demand that everyone be vaccinated while ensuring that vaccine producers are penalized because they are in private sector.
Prashant Bhushan @pbhushan1
· Feb 1

FM announces 35,000 Cr of our money to be spent on Pvt Vaccine Companies for untested Vaccines at a time when Covid is naturally dying down in India! But this money cannot be given to poor migrant labour who lost their jobs or to Farmers for MSP on their crops. Wah FM sahiba!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Apr 2021 21:23

Posted on SwarajyaMag:
Vaccine Rollout In A Pandemic: Why Prioritised Access Drives Public Policy

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 08 Apr 2021 21:31

my nephew who is a doctor at Lady hardinge medical college has contracted covid after 2 jabs of vax... this is going to be a uphill battle.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Apr 2021 21:48

manjgu wrote:my nephew who is a doctor at Lady hardinge medical college has contracted covid after 2 jabs of vax... this is going to be a uphill battle.

The vaccine doesn't prevent you from getting the illness even if its been long enough to become effective. What is does it dramatically lower negative outcomes - especially for those in the high risk group . At some point, getting Covid will become like getting the flu - some bed time and back .

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 08 Apr 2021 22:04

Devendra Fadnavis busts the artificial vaccine shortage bluster by Maha govt

https://twitter.com/Dev_Fadnavis/status ... 9840579590

Only 3 states have received more than 1 crore vaccine supply : Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan.
Gujarat & Rajasthan has equal population. Rajasthan has Congress Govt in power.

Maharashtra received 1.06crore vaccines as mentioned in official StateGovt tweet from DGIPR on 6thApril.
91 lakh vaccines got used;means 15lakh still left with GoM.
So why are vaccination centres deliberately shut down today & why peltering of false news?
#MaharashtraHasVaccines

Whichever states have requested for more vaccine supplies or has pendency from alloted quota, such supply is in pipleline and Maharashtra to receive another 19 lakh vaccines between 9th to 12th April.
(4/n)

Uttar Pradesh is the largest State & received 92 lakh vaccines. They have used 83 lakh doses and 9 lakh are remaining with them.
Even Haryana has not received much vaccine in the first round, but getting it now.
(5/n)

Shri Sharad Pawar ji spoke to Union Minister
@drharshvardhan
ji who assured him of all the assistance to GoM.
I also discussed with Union Health Minister.
He assured that there was never ever any biased approach towards Maharashtra & supplies are smooth.
#MaharashtraHasVaccines

Since day 1 of #Covid19Pandemic, the Government of India, taking all states on board, has taken measures unitedly and in that too Maharashtra has been given maximum assistance.

Replying to
@Dev_Fadnavis
Even today, GoI under the leadership of Hon PM
@narendramodi
ji, is providing all support to GoM to serve better, the people of Maharashtra.
(8/n)

Ventilators - Cross markNOT available!
Remdesivir - Cross markNOT available!
Oxygenated beds -Cross mark NOT available!
Simple bed occupancy -Cross mark NOT available!
BUT…
Vaccines are available & more will come tooWhite heavy check mark
(9/n)
#MaharashtraHasVaccines

Undoubtedly, #COVID19 & vaccination are important issues for our State.
But since there is constant criticism on mis-governance of MVA & various exposes in courts lately, its an Absolute Shame that vaccination politics is being played to divert people’s attention!
(11/n)

It is my earnest request to MVA to STOP such dirty politics and focus on improving the health of our Maharashtra !
(12/12)
#MaharashtraHasVaccines

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Apr 2021 23:14

3.5 million doses until 8pm on Thursday, 94 million total . Well on track to hit 100 million by end of week as projected earlier - 3 million each on Friday and Saturday will do it.

Manas · Post by **Manas** » 08 Apr 2021 23:49

Suraj wrote:
manjgu wrote:my nephew who is a doctor at Lady hardinge medical college has contracted covid after 2 jabs of vax... this is going to be a uphill battle.
The vaccine doesn't prevent you from getting the illness even if its been long enough to become effective. What is does it dramatically lower negative outcomes - especially for those in the high risk group . At some point, getting Covid will become like getting the flu - some bed time and back .

Suraj,

Thanks as always for being a strong voice of reason and common sense on all topics (and not just economics which seems to be your expertize). Even the much vaunted Pfizer/Moderna have claimed efficacy rates of 90% after 2 jabs. A few extra people being infected/not infected during clinical trials can skew the efficacy % by 10-20% on either side. I think there is large scale confusion and ignorance on the part of the general population on what vaccine efficacy means.

Pretty much all vaccines (havent seen data on Chinese so cant comment on them) based on data so far are near 100% effective in preventing severe disease and death. Even in the U.S. there have been a few cases of elderly vaccine recipients having been hospitalized despite 2 jabs but they recovered. Vaccines dont guarantee immunity from infection, they in 95%+ of cases will save lives. With that said if an elderly person has severe/multiple co-morbidities (Diabetes, Heart Disease, some forms of cancer) they could still catch the infection resulting in death. 30K - 50K people (mostly elderly) die of flu related complications every year in the U.S. despite widely available vaccines and the general population having herd immunity (as the flu variants change every year).

The goal with COVID and herd immunity and getting to a state where it is endemic - is about making sure that the health care system is NOT overwhelmed with a lot of highly vulnerable people ending up in hospitals and ICUs.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Apr 2021 01:19

Manas wrote:Pretty much all vaccines (havent seen data on Chinese so cant comment on them) based on data so far are near 100% effective in preventing severe disease and death. Even in the U.S. there have been a few cases of elderly vaccine recipients having been hospitalized despite 2 jabs but they recovered. Vaccines dont guarantee immunity from infection, they in 95%+ of cases will save lives.

Exactly.

ManSingh · Post by **ManSingh** » 09 Apr 2021 06:48

Another personal experience with covid-19.

My mother received her first dose of Covaxin on 15th March. No side effects. She tested positive today and has had symptoms for around 2 days. Unable to contact trace and can not find the source of infection. Oxygen levels were 97 yesterday and 99 today.

Dad also got the vaccination on 15th March and had side effects of a mild fever for about 4 days after vaccination. He is not showing any symtoms at all. Still awaiting test results.

Both aged 65.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 09 Apr 2021 07:12

ManSingh wrote:Another personal experience with covid-19.

My mother received her first dose of Covaxin on 15th March. No side effects. She tested positive today and has had symptoms for around 2 days. Unable to contact trace and can not find the source of infection. Oxygen levels were 97 yesterday and 99 today.

Dad also got the vaccination on 15th March and had side effects of a mild fever for about 4 days after vaccination. He is not showing any symtoms at all. Still awaiting test results.

Both aged 65.

Pray for your parent ManSinghji. Hope both recover soon enough

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 09 Apr 2021 07:13

Suraj wrote:
manjgu wrote:my nephew who is a doctor at Lady hardinge medical college has contracted covid after 2 jabs of vax... this is going to be a uphill battle.
The vaccine doesn't prevent you from getting the illness even if its been long enough to become effective. What is does it dramatically lower negative outcomes - especially for those in the high risk group . At some point, getting Covid will become like getting the flu - some bed time and back .

correct Suraj, the point i was trying to make is that a) people will fall sick after vax albeit with mild symptoms b) immunity to covid may peter away in 1 or 2 years ( still to be confirmed) requiring further vax? will ensure that covid remains a major public health issue for times to come. c) will the immunity arising out of 'herd immunity' be of a more permanent nature?? i am confused abt herd immunity..is it arising out of fact that everybody has been infected or everybody is vaccinated.?? how does it work.

some additional questions a) is india looking to manufacture J&J vax ? what are storage temp requirements for J&J vax?

saip · Post by **saip** » 09 Apr 2021 07:22

I took Uber today which is almost the first time. My car was in Service 60 miles away. I started chatting with the driver who is from Cambodia. He is in fifties. He said he did not take vaccine yet. Then he said something about his parents taking them out to keep them fit etc. Then he said he is not considering getting them vaccinated as he heard that some 1000 died. Next five minutes it was me talking about why he should get them vaccinated quoting all kinds of numbers. I do no think he got convinced as he became less chatty. Anyway, I felt that I did my duty.
I do not know what the Uber's policy is except requiring masks for both driver and the passenger. I am hoping that they make it mandatory for their drivers to get vaccinated.

saip · Post by **saip** » 09 Apr 2021 07:28

J & J vaccine storage:
CDC recommends storing vaccine between 2°C and 8°C
(36°F and 46°F):
• Unpunctured vials until the expiration date*
• Punctured vials for up to 6 hours.† Note the date and
time the vial was first punctured. Discard vaccine not
used within this time.
Link

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 09 Apr 2021 09:17

3,691,511 vaccinations on Thursday 08 April 2021. If this continues, then over 100 million vaccinations crossed by Saturday night.
https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

For those who have been complaining about the GoI, they've been vaccinating at rates faster than entire continents with the exception of China, and in all likelihood exceed them by June.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Apr 2021 09:35

manjgu wrote: correct Suraj, the point i was trying to make is that a) people will fall sick after vax albeit with mild symptoms b) immunity to covid may peter away in 1 or 2 years ( still to be confirmed) requiring further vax? will ensure that covid remains a major public health issue for times to come. c) will the immunity arising out of 'herd immunity' be of a more permanent nature?? i am confused abt herd immunity..is it arising out of fact that everybody has been infected or everybody is vaccinated.?? how does it work.

some additional questions a) is india looking to manufacture J&J vax ? what are storage temp requirements for J&J vax?

There have been questions about how long the efficacy of these vaccines would be. Normal vaccine development takes several years and can answer that. None of the Covid vaccines are more than 4-5 months old, at the most. Pfizer was the first to clear Phase 3 and that was end November 2020. Moderna followed weeks later, AZ sometime in December, Covaxin in early March.

Everyone currently being vaccinated is effectively the Phase 4 trial group. There will be studies conducted to validate the duration of efficacy of various vaccines, and given the nature of flu vaccines, it may become an annual booster dose thing.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 09 Apr 2021 09:39

Suraj wrote: Everyone currently being vaccinated is effectively the Phase 4 trial group. There will be studies conducted to validate the duration of efficacy of various vaccines, and given the nature of flu vaccines, it may become an annual booster dose thing.

The duration of efficacy will be proportional to the profits made by big pharma. It's pretty simple, just get a random sample of people vaccinated after 6-9 months and check for antibodies.

srai · Post by **srai** » 09 Apr 2021 16:01

saip wrote:I took Uber today which is almost the first time. My car was in Service 60 miles away. I started chatting with the driver who is from Cambodia. He is in fifties. He said he did not take vaccine yet. Then he said something about his parents taking them out to keep them fit etc. Then he said he is not considering getting them vaccinated as he heard that some 1000 died. Next five minutes it was me talking about why he should get them vaccinated quoting all kinds of numbers. I do no think he got convinced as he became less chatty. Anyway, I felt that I did my duty.
I do not know what the Uber's policy is except requiring masks for both driver and the passenger. I am hoping that they make it mandatory for their drivers to get vaccinated.

It’s common for minority groups to have different concepts/concerns/understanding of ground realities because they require a different outreach program to that of the mainstream. Tailored community outreach for different groups of people are often not thought out properly.