Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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dipak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by dipak »

Complete India-wide lockdown for 21 days.
I think much needed ...right and bold move.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

Image
madhu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by madhu »

Guys, i was wondering how did they cone to conclusion of 21 days? Is it 14 days and 7 days as a factor of safety? Or was there any tradeoff or other logic.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Targeted travel restrictions - enabled by greater testing - are starting to pop up.

Florida governor orders all incoming New Yorkers to self-quarantine
New Yorkers who flee to Florida during the coronavirus outbreak will have to self quarantine for two weeks when they arrive — or risk facing criminal charges, the Sunshine State’s governor said Monday.
vishvak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vishvak »

The lockdown will helpful in overt flouting of rules like it's Sunday or any other day like mentality atleast to begin with. Better for long term surely.

I was traveling to Bangalore City from Mumbai, and taxiwalah was talking about some festival tomorrow, though he knew that lockdown will start in Karnataka. Hopefully people who are affected by day to day basis can be compensated later when things aren't muddled.

I think lockdown duration is an approximation for cutting off spread but it will also reduce affects due to late detection etc which is also important however it is better not to overtly criticize to put it mildly the people who get detected. Best to tide over the problems and complain later, after fully preventing adverse fallouts as well.. like not let exploit temporary setbacks.
Last edited by vishvak on 24 Mar 2020 21:33, edited 3 times in total.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

madhu wrote:Guys, i was wondering how did they cone to conclusion of 21 days? Is it 14 days and 7 days as a factor of safety? Or was there any tradeoff or other logic.
Estimated transmission dispersal so far. Those sick today were infected two weeks ago, by people who were themselves infected N days before that (I don't recall what is the earliest time from infection to contagiousness). With a small localized pool of potential transmissions whose time infection day is known, one can more accurately specify a shorter and more focused quarantine period. When there are multiple sets of transmissions by different parties over the course of the past 3 weeks, EACH one of them has put multiple groups of people at risk, and it's not clear who they came in touch with. Therefore a wide and long lockdown was imposed.

Costly for sure, unless treatment regimens show very good efficacy and both the drug and PPE deployment is conducted at a war footing. We have the production capacity and the national will, combined with leadership whom people listen to. Communication with the wider world needs to focus on enhancing the positive message.

This is also why I deleted a bunch of negative posts here of the "these measures won't work. Indians are too stupid / thoughtless / will flout all rules etc etc". Such armchair experts are advised to please keep quiet for now.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

Zynda wrote:Starting midnight, India is going in to a complete & total lockdown for 21 days...
This is good as it will give security forces a chance to flush out criminals/terrorists through out India.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Our rate of infections is still in manageable stage. 21 days also allows us to block out international flights coming in.

It is our chance to go for region specific testing and weeding out the infected from the society.

In terms of economic cost. The rest of the world is anyway locked down. Whom will you trade with by staying open?

Also, you either be open & pay for looking after millions of sicks, infected & dying patients or loose money by staying home and helping the medical services cope.

It is a choice one has to make.
Last edited by nam on 24 Mar 2020 22:01, edited 1 time in total.
Karan M
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

Would we prefer 21 days of increasing panic as infection counts head upwards and our cities become pandemic areas, or 21 days wherein GOI finally has breathing space (no pun intended) to put measures in place? This is all due to those a-holes who went around breaking quarantine and those jerks who thought their qudrati biryani was enough to sit and engage in bigoted displays of street power. Both groups have now forced the GOI's hand. Congratulations. You put the whole country into a lockdown. There was no other option.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

Well, the Sham Bagh drama is over and everyone was sent home - though some still protested and a crowd of stone pelters did collect for possible confrontation briefly. This time the police were in no mood for niceties and everyone just decided to let it go.

This might be one opportunity to 'clean house' in other ways. Difficult times for everyone, that much is certain. Only Modi could pull it off, I am confident he will. May the Gods protect him.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Aditya_V »

My only grouse is keeping the stock market open as an " Essential Service" allowing FII"s and Rich to short the market while the Retail Investor is scared as he does not have access to business collections, the small business has to still pay his salaries. Small businessmen are getting shafted every way. is getting shafted every way, at least 10% od TDS deposited on small business behalf and refund of 10% GST paid in cash in FY 19-20 should be considered.
Karan M
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

If you close the stock market you spook the FII so that they won't return for a while, and further roil the markets.
Just ignore the market for a while. I am 38% down on my stock market investments and prepping myself for it to go down by a further 20-30% till things stabilize.

Everyday life is > stock market IMHO, and this is where my greatest worries are. Getting supplies, fresh groceries, etc.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Rahul M »

guys, please do everything in your power to convey to GOI that a minimum DBT must be announced for daily wage earners at least for a month else we will have riot situations.
use social media, contacts, everything.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Just on the topic of testing or rather complains about "not enough testing". UK stopped mass testing a week back. It's overall infection rate is 8% and yesterday's infection rate versus testing was 21%.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

Karan M wrote:If you close the stock market you spook the FII so that they won't return for a while, and further roil the markets.
Just ignore the market for a while. I am 38% down on my stock market investments and prepping myself for it to go down by a further 20-30% till things stabilize.

Everyday life is > stock market IMHO, and this is where my greatest worries are. Getting supplies, fresh groceries, etc.
I am bullish on India and remaining invested. The current fall was a good opportunity for me to sell and repurchase the same mutual funds
- giving me a notional short term capital loss, which I can (over the next 8 years if required) set off against real capital gains tax.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by greatde »

21 day lockdown is tough, but can bring some new opportunities? It's once in a lifetime and there can be many simulations, military, environment works which can be optimized. Hope the government think-tanks work and use such opportunity well....
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Shivaji »

nam wrote:

In terms of economic cost. The rest of the world is anyway locked down. Whom will you trade with by staying open?

Also, you either be open & pay for looking after millions of sicks, infected & dying patients or loose money by staying home and helping the medical services cope.

It is a choice one has to make.
This is what I was telling my wifey just now.

Can long pending infrastructure work be carried out in this period?

Many a times bridge needs to be built on tracks but Railways does not give time slot for construction work or time slot given is too small.

I know one bridge that connects Thane with Mumbai was long pending due to permission issues from Railways. This and many such critical works can be completed in this period.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by kvraghav »

There is hope for the economy. The UK and USA are planning to introduce antibody test to see if people have corona antibody. Looks like these are 6 to 10 pound cost per test and may start in next two weeks. Once you are antibody positive but corona negative, you can go out and help the economy by working.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vishvak »

..and many such critical works can be completed in this period.
Not sure about this at all. The affects will be severe at minimum if essential and critical working population takes chances.
if people have corona antibody
Hope this isn't going OffTrack but corona antibody could just be a myth that nobody ever made otherwise they would make medicine out of blood plasma or something. But then who knows maybe they can start with people who are cured.
Last edited by vishvak on 24 Mar 2020 23:08, edited 1 time in total.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Karan M wrote:Would we prefer 21 days of increasing panic as infection counts head upwards and our cities become pandemic areas, or 21 days wherein GOI finally has breathing space (no pun intended) to put measures in place? This is all due to those a-holes who went around breaking quarantine and those jerks who thought their qudrati biryani was enough to sit and engage in bigoted displays of street power. Both groups have now forced the GOI's hand. Congratulations. You put the whole country into a lockdown. There was no other option.
Yes, a more protracted period of community transmission by people either unaware of their own contact with others, or those willfully negligent (these are often the first order transmitters) have made it worse and resulted in a longer lockdown period needed than would otherwise be the case.

The Japanese managed better because they were draconian in their measures at the outset. They were mocked then but not anymore. This lockdown helps curtail our major cities from having multiplying case counts like NYC has right now - time will tell if we acted swiftly enough.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by madhu »

Intresting graph. We need to superimpose china data and india to see the trajectory.
Image
nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

People who are concerned about hit to the economy, can volunteer to give up some of the holidays on Saturday/Sunday and Religious days, later in the year. Let's see how many volunteer.

In fact, GoI should announce that some of the holidays later in the year will be cancelled.
madhu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by madhu »

Is there any paper or simulation what happens to economy in such world wide lockdown?
nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

Karan M wrote:Would we prefer 21 days of increasing panic as infection counts head upwards and our cities become pandemic areas, or 21 days wherein GOI finally has breathing space (no pun intended) to put measures in place? This is all due to those a-holes who went around breaking quarantine and those jerks who thought their qudrati biryani was enough to sit and engage in bigoted displays of street power. Both groups have now forced the GOI's hand. Congratulations. You put the whole country into a lockdown. There was no other option.
This is exactly what is happening in UK. Boris Johnson did not want to lockdown anything, even kept the school open. But slowly the daily death and infection rate is forcing his hand. One by one everything is getting closed.

Last week on a bright day, people went out and about. Now there is furious call to lockdown the entire country, as people as not taking the issue seriously.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Rahul M wrote:guys, please do everything in your power to convey to GOI that a minimum DBT must be announced for daily wage earners at least for a month else we will have riot situations.
use social media, contacts, everything.
GoI is handling this well so far. They've done exactly what was predicted here - after the Janata Curfew was a resounding success, immediately announce a lockdown within the next 2-3 days. With JAM, they have the means to transfer a temporary UBI to people as well.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vinod »

The only way anyone can safely restart is by making the testing almost instant and very sensitive ie. as early 1 day of infection, and very cheap, so that it can be done on mass scale at entries of mass transit points.

So, I think govt should be driving towards this and be ready when the shut down is over.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

nam wrote:People who are concerned about hit to the economy, can volunteer to give up some of the holidays on Saturday/Sunday and Religious days, later in the year. Let's see how many volunteer.

In fact, GoI should announce that some of the holidays later in the year will be cancelled.
This is actually an excellent proposal, and should be on SM .
madhu
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by madhu »

An intresting paper.
Reinfection could not occur in SARS-CoV-2 infected rhesus macaques
Abstract
An outbreak of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2), began in Wuhan and spread globally. Recently, it has been reported that discharged patients in China and elsewhere were testing positive after recovering. However, it remains unclear whether the convalescing patients have a risk of “relapse” or “reinfection”. The longitudinal tracking of re-exposure after the disappeared symptoms of the SARS-CoV-2-infected monkeys was performed in this study. We found that weight loss in some monkeys, viral replication mainly in nose, pharynx, lung and gut, as well as moderate interstitial pneumonia at 7 days post-infection (dpi) were clearly observed in rhesus monkeys after the primary infection. After the symptoms were alleviated and the specific antibody tested positively, the half of infected monkeys were rechallenged with the same dose of SARS-CoV-2 strain. Notably, neither viral loads in nasopharyngeal and anal swabs along timeline nor viral replication in all primary tissue compartments at 5 days post-reinfection (dpr) was found in re-exposed monkeys. Combined with the follow-up virologic, radiological and pathological findings, the monkeys with re-exposure showed no recurrence of COVID-19, similarly to the infected monkey without rechallenge. Taken together, our results indicated that the primary SARS-CoV-2 infection could protect from subsequent exposures, which have the reference of prognosis of the disease and vital implications for vaccine design
.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

The 21 day lock-down is the only way to beat Corona and I am cautiously optimistic we will pull this off. If we do, we will be the only major country relatively unaffected by the virus - I'm not sure I posted earlier, but my pessimistic scenario for India is around 700 deaths, which will be way better
than anyone else. We would then be the only democracy to implement a lock-down and the country with the lowest deaths per million.
Some predictions if that happens, as I believe it will:

China's reputation would have taken a beating after this. Its days of being a factory to the world are over. OBOR is either dead, or will be increasingly risky. China's economy will be hit by the double whammy of the virus and falling (and irrecoverable) exports. I see bipartisan consensus in the US on the long term threat posed by China.
Europe and the US will take a long time to recover.
I don't see the Trump presidency surviving his handling of the virus. With a democrat in the white house, the biggest impact I see is a thaw in relations with Iran and Venezuela. It will bring even more oil into the market, in a scenario of depressed demand from the West and China. The US won't mind the fall in prices because the Dems are against fracking for Shale oil and would be happy to live with cheap imported gas. That will positively impact India's foreign exchange reserves and the Rupee. Both Saudi and Iran would be too concerned with surviving in an era of low oil prices, than trying to either export Jihad, or destabilise the Middle East.
Erdogan would be in the same situation (politically and economically weaker) - assuming he is still in power agfter 2022.

The EU experiment would be almost over. I see them struggling to survive another recession rather than ganging up against Russia (the other winner in the virus war). With no becoming less relevant in Europe, the Syrian war almost over and no inclination of NATO to be involved in Afghanistan and the Middle East, there might be a recognition on the part of the US, that China is the principal adversary and I see a new grouping of US+Japan+Taiwan+SoKo+Vietnam+India emerge to take on China. This would be far too powerful for China to take on, so I see China trying to reset its relationship with India, possibly by being less visibly supportive of Pak (which becomes more of a basket case than it currently is).

Politically a lot of pluses for India, Economically, India would strengthen domestic manufacturing (reducing Chinese imports) in areas like drug APIs and electronics. A consequence would be emerging as an alternative to China for low cost manufacturing, which is where the low tax regime for new manufacturing companies will, IMO, have a big impact.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by schinnas »

Fully agree, Deans.

This also would change the notion of free trade all over the world. In critical areas, there would be a tarif regimen to enforce local manufacturing and self reliance on all major countries.

Of the small countries, Singapore will emerge stronger without any major damage to the economy. Turkey, Malaysia and Pakistan will be further weakened after this. Tourism driven Turkish economy will nosedive.

Modi would use this opportunity to substantially improve health care and emergency response infrastructure in India.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

This is also a great opportunity to physically clean up the country and particularly the urban areas.

Build modern and clean city public spaces - as people saw in astonishment just how physically modern a city like Wuhan is. It's not hard to do - it's literally just bread and butter street infrastructure, nothing like laying high speed rail tracks or building skyscrapers.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nam »

In terms of economic impact, the fundamental impact is government deficit.

GoI can transfer some money for people to pay for essentials for coming 1- 2 months, depending on the lockdown period. It is not as if, everyone lives from day to day. Most of us would have some savings for such emergencies. Poorer people will have it less, so GoI can transfer money to their jan dan account.

I am sure most of the workplace owners can pay their staff for 1 month or adjust it accordingly over the entire year. If you are earning say 50K a month and expense of 30K, i am sure there is not harm in receiving 30K for 1 month to cover the expenses.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/worl ... -maps.html
Coronavirus Live Updates: Trump Wants U.S. Open ‘by Easter.’ India Imposes a 21-Day Lockdown
The Tokyo Olympics have been postponed. India announced a countrywide lockdown. New York, now the center of the outbreak in America, braces for a flood of patients.
RIGHT NOW President Trump said he wants the United States “raring to go” by Easter. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced “a total ban of coming out of your homes” for India.
The Trump administration never considered a nationwide lockdown, Pence and Trump say.
Even as nations from Britain to India declare nationwide economic lockdowns, President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence said on Tuesday that such a step has never been under consideration for the United States.
Participating in a town hall hosted by Fox News, Mr. Trump said he wanted to have the country “raring to go by Easter,” less than three weeks away. “I think it’s possible, why not?” he said with a shrug. He expressed outrage about having to “close the country” to curb the spread of the coronavirus and indicated his guidelines on business shutdowns and social distancing would soon be lifted. “I gave it two weeks,” he said, adding, “We can socially distance ourselves and go to work.” Mr. Pence told viewers that talk of such a lockdown was misinformation that has circulated online.
“I can tell you that at no point has the White House Coronavirus Task Force discussed a nationwide lockdown,” he said, answering a question from a viewer on the phone. Mr. Trump fell back on his comparison of the coronavirus to the flu, saying that despite losing thousands of people to the flu, “we don’t turn the country off.” He also said that more people die of automobile accidents, but nobody forces car companies to stop manufacturing vehicles.
States including California, Maryland, Illinois and Washington have declared stay-at-home or shutdown orders, but other states have been looking for directives from the Trump administration. Mr. Pence said the administration’s timeline for trying to get businesses reopened and workers out of their homes was shorter than the period that health experts have said would be necessary to flatten the curve.
“We’ll focus on our most vulnerable, but putting America back to work will also be a priority, in weeks not months,” Mr. Pence said.
He also said two malaria drugs, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for off-label use treating patients with Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. The F.D.A. did not immediately confirm that assertion, but two administration health officials said it was not true.
.....
Gautam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf


I am a little puzzled as to this Indian sttrain. There must be several strains circulating in India-from various incoming travellers and also from the lack of proof-reading function intrinsic to RNA dependent RNA polymerase.

Anyway, interesting if true. Good use of banks of sequence data.


Many studies have reported that miRNAs not only act as the signature of tissue
expression and function but also as potential biomarkers playing important role in
regulating disease pathophysiology(25). In viral infections, host antiviral miRNAs play
a crucial role in the regulation of immune response to virus infection depending upon
the viral agent. Many known human miRNAs appear to be able to target viral genes and
their functions like interfering with replication, translation and expression.
In the present study, we tried to predict the antiviral host- miRNAs specific for
SARS-CoV2.Firstly, we compared SARS-CoV2 and SARS-CoV and identified a list
of 6 miRNAs unique to SARS-CoV2 and previously reported to be associated with
other virus diseases, including HIV (Table. 4).
author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.21.001586. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the
Clinical investigations have suggested that patients with cardiac diseases, hypertension,
or diabetes, who are treated with ACE2- increasing drugs including inhibitors and
blockers show increased expression of ACE2 and thus are at higher risk of getting the
SARS-CoV2 infection (26). Also there are studies on the regulatory role of miRNA
hsa-mir-27b-3p described in ACE2 Signaling (27). The results of the present study
suggest a strong correlation between miRNA hsa-mir-27b-3p and ACE2 which needs
to be confirmed experimentally in SARS-CoV2 cases.
Further, we tried to compare the miRNAs in the genomes and observed some striking
findings. We observed that out of all the miRNAs, hsa-miR-27b is the only unique
miRNA specific to India SARS-CoV2 and showed no significant
complementarity-based nucleotide-binding with the strain of SARS-CoV2 from other
countries. This is surprising and is of utmost importance along with our other novel

finding of a unique mutation identified in the spike surface glycoprotein (A930V
(24351C>T)) in the Indian sequence. The target of the hsa-miR-27b sequence is the
location containing A930V mutation in the spike surface glycoprotein which perhaps,
should be explored further, experimentally
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nachiket »

Suraj wrote:This is also a great opportunity to physically clean up the country and particularly the urban areas.

Build modern and clean city public spaces - as people saw in astonishment just how physically modern a city like Wuhan is. It's not hard to do - it's literally just bread and butter street infrastructure, nothing like laying high speed rail tracks or building skyscrapers.
Eventually, GOI is going to have to carry out massive amounts of deficit funding to provide a stimulus to the economy. They can start with DBT now. But once the lockdown finishes it might be better to spend that money on a new city-infrastructure building and cleanup binge. If you have to borrow and spend huge amounts of money you don't have, in order to get the economy running again, might as well get something tangible out of it. A new JNURM type scheme (but done right this time) can help.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Garooda »

{Deleted} Not sure how much of it is true.

Mod Note: "I'm not sure how much of it is true" is a clue to NOT post such things. Do NOT post rumormongering in the midst of a crisis.
Last edited by Suraj on 25 Mar 2020 00:12, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed useless post contents
sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

So how's the count going in New York with all that testing? The genie is out of the bottle. Stay the phook away is the answer.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

nachiket wrote:
Suraj wrote:This is also a great opportunity to physically clean up the country and particularly the urban areas.

Build modern and clean city public spaces - as people saw in astonishment just how physically modern a city like Wuhan is. It's not hard to do - it's literally just bread and butter street infrastructure, nothing like laying high speed rail tracks or building skyscrapers.
Eventually, GOI is going to have to carry out massive amounts of deficit funding to provide a stimulus to the economy. They can start with DBT now. But once the lockdown finishes it might be better to spend that money on a new city-infrastructure building and cleanup binge. If you have to borrow and spend huge amounts of money you don't have, in order to get the economy running again, might as well get something tangible out of it. A new JNURM type scheme (but done right this time) can help.
Not just GOI but I'm guessing the international financial system will need to agree upon a reset to daily compounding. It's not possible to sustain a debt load with no servicing for 3-6 weeks of cascading voluntary economic shutdowns, while simultaneously letting interest on accumulated debt to continue compounding in that period. Some form of 'pretend no interest accumulated for X weeks' agreement will probably be on the cards, enabling the system to pause and continue without what would be a much worse worldwide financial disruption.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

nam wrote:People who are concerned about hit to the economy, can volunteer to give up some of the holidays on Saturday/Sunday and Religious days, later in the year. Let's see how many volunteer.

In fact, GoI should announce that some of the holidays later in the year will be cancelled.
:rotfl: the choice at this time was stark but the GOI made the right one. With all due respect to herd immunity and Dr. Dawn Michael.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by KLNMurthy »

g.sarkar wrote:
Haresh wrote:Meanwhile in blighty.............
never miss an opportunity to blame India!!!!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... r-comments
If it were 1920, the viceroy, with the stroke of his pen, would have simply banned the use of paracetamol on Indians and earmarked it for 100% export to UK. What a difference time makes.
Gautam
Freedom babu mahashay, not just time.
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