Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Mar 2020 06:36

GhantaaBaba @GhantaaBaba · 9h

This PoV is being made popular in China that the virus originated in the US and It was spread by US athletes who participated in 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan..See this

https://www.economist.com/china/2020/02 ... their-grip

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 06 Mar 2020 07:14

Amber G. wrote:
ramana wrote:AmberG, Doctors here or on your SM feed?

Hi Ramana,
I am/was not talking about doctors here (in brf) but people and scientists in general. We have Mamata didi (in a leadership position, no less) talking about "how the whole thing is NaMo's effort to divert attention from riots". Here in US , Trump/Pence are doing the same. Meanwhile the situation here in US is really a scandal. And I am not even counting fake cures etc..

Just to give an example: A doctor - who is working on the front-line was having trouble even getting people tested. According to him the total number of people tested in the whole NY state was (then) 33!

Contrast this to Korea - where they are routinely testing 10,000+ cases every day! (probably the same size at NY state)

In other countries the "average" time (this is calculated by # of cases done / day - including all the red tape etc) for CT scan diag/ machine is about 10 minutes.

In US at present it is more than an hour.

Doctors are calling it a scandal. Hope things change.
(Fortunately things are much better in India - It is nice to see real scientists who has NaMo's ear).
***
Brf and posters here, in the grand scheme of things, ought to be taken in perspective - and not too seriously. Brf has a large audience so I try to post things which are helpful. If a few people find it helpful, and I can find time I will keep posting here.

If Brf has a place where one can host pdf and/or jpg /LaTex we could put some graphs / documents etc I have some useful stuff to share.
***
About the Washington case - IIRC I posted a few days ago and may be some time ago too. Others might have posted about that too.

That was the first US case so it stood out in my mind. It seemed strange that all the details did not come out. (Except the name of the hospital where he was admitted)

I once had son working for Microsoft, and a nephew/niece (both doctors) working in the area so I have spent quite some time there and am familiar with the area..
When the news about 18 year old came out (who was in the same area as the hospital) and then the Nursing Home cases - many feared that there are many more cases..

I really hope that we in US do all we can do to manage this. Please call your senators/congressmen - the testing procedure and other essential items must be taken care as soon as possible.

Host on your google drive and add the link here.. you can do spreadsheets and PDF etc (make it open to public)

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 06 Mar 2020 07:20

Only the best!

Tito's tells customers to not use their vodka for hand sanitizer By Leah Asmelash, CNN Updated 5:31 PM ET, Thu March 5, 2020

"Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol," Tito's Handmade Vodka tweeted on Thursday. "Tito's Handmade Vodka is 40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC."

It's the water that kills

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 06 Mar 2020 08:56

tandav wrote: Host on your google drive and add the link here.. you can do spreadsheets and PDF etc (make it open to public)

Thanks. That's obviously a nice way to do it and I know folks do it here.
(I have been doing that for years -- But having it managed by brf, makes logistics a little easier - when you deleted/rearranged your cloud files (I have generally used dropbox and googledrive or link to my other SM posts) and pictures gets bad links).
No biggie..May be some day brf can have it's own native support.
Thanks again.
(What I would really like to get LaTex support in Math/Physics dhaga

)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 06 Mar 2020 08:58

Resource: EPA has just come out with it's list of " Registered Antimicrobial Products for Use Against COVID 19.

Here is the link:
EPA’s Registered Antimicrobial Products for Use Against
Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the Cause of COVID-19

(If you can find it in Costco

... I went there the other day and they were out of hand sanitizers, soaps, thermometers (!), surgical gloves... even Basmati Rice, and Toor/Massor dal

)

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 06 Mar 2020 10:54

UlanBatori wrote:Only the best!
Tito's tells customers to not use their vodka for hand sanitizer By Leah Asmelash, CNN Updated 5:31 PM ET, Thu March 5, 2020

"Per the CDC, hand sanitizer needs to contain at least 60% alcohol," Tito's Handmade Vodka tweeted on Thursday. "Tito's Handmade Vodka is 40% alcohol, and therefore does not meet the current recommendation of the CDC."
It's the water that kills

Mean-e-while you will be happy to know that stock markets are crashing like proverbial dominos. Sensex and Nifty these days falls in 3 digit score. If scare of Covid stays alive for one more quarter, many economies will be devasted especially those who have large trading relationship with China.

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 Mar 2020 15:31

^^^ China/Japan/Korea will go negative this year. So will Germany who trades like an Asian nation with Cheen. Italy will go negative obviously with the mass infection but also chini trade connections. Already two of the four largest economies in the EU are in the sh1tter. And the EU had already been slowing down since the PIIGS crisis.

That leaves only the US as a global driver -- if they can control Covid.

Even if the US can control things, big economic players are blocking travel and communications with one another. No connectivity equals drop in trade and tourism.

Chances are 60-40 we tip into a global recession with odds climbing or dropping with the spread or containment of the virus.

Truth is Europe and the US had two months to prepare for this when Wuhan was put into lockdown and flights cancelled across the board to Cheen. Japan and Korea were going to get hit no matter what because of the trade and cultural links. So maybe the flight bans should have expanded to them earlier.

chola · Post by **chola** » 06 Mar 2020 16:29

A 4K drive through Beijing a few weeks ago. Hauntingly beautiful when empty.

When your capitol looks like a post-apocalypse hollywood movie then your economy is pretty much in the toilet.

Vadivel · Post by **Vadivel** » 06 Mar 2020 17:51

The “Gift” of Coronavirus
by Peter Zeihan on March 6, 2020

In the past couple of weeks coronavirus cases outside of China surged. Particularly worrisome clusters emerged in South Korea and Iran, countries which serve as transport hubs for their respective worlds. US President Donald Trump is doing his normal rambling press conference thing, contradicting most of what little information that is out there. Data coming out of China is more positive, but the idea that China and only China has cracked the code on how to stop a highly virulent virus from spreading in dense population centers is, in a word, dubious. Is anyone not feeling at least a bit…twitchy?

Let’s shift the conversation: Coronavirus may be the most positive thing that’s happened to the global economy in recent years.

China is the world’s workshop. There are precious few complex manufacturing supply chains that don’t link to the mainland in at least some way, with computing, electronics and automotive by far the most exposed. China represents a bit more than a fourth of global manufacturing output all on its own and sports seven of the ten busiest container ports in the world.

The two zones in China most impacted by coronavirus are the Pearl Delta and Yangtze Valley. Most of the 150 million people in China under some degree of involuntary quarantine reside in these zones. The Pearl and the Yangtze are the two most technologically advanced portions of the country, sporting the most sophisticated industrial bases. These regions are by far the most internationally connected of China’s population zones.

The viral epicenter city of Wuhan is one of the largest automotive manufacturing centers in China. Nissan and Honda alone manufacture nearly 2.25 million automobiles there annually. Dongguan, a city in the Pearl River Delta, is known as “the world’s factory” and on its own produces an estimated one-fifth of the world’s smartphones and one-tenth of its shoes.

We’ve all read about how this or that product or company or industry faces pressure from the Chinese shut-ins. So far, shipping companies have cancelled over 80 sailings of container ships, meaning that tens of billions of dollars of goods, many of them inputs into other goods, either weren’t produced or couldn’t get where they needed to go. The sudden lurch in China’s $70 billion annual auto-parts exports industry is already stalling automobile manufacturing in South Korea and Eastern Europe.

But here’s the thing: China’s position in the global system is artificial, and it was going to end anyway.

A look back:

To distill America’s entire Cold War strategy: the Americans created a global Order to provide an economic incentive for membership in their military alliance network. The Americans broke the empires and paid everyone to be on their side against the Soviets. Of the many unintentional side effects was the fostering of an environment where no one shot at anyone else’s shipping, no matter how valuable that shipping might be.

In absolute terms, China is by far the biggest beneficiary of this American-led Order. Japan and the Europeans had carved Chinese territory into imperial spheres of influence. The Americans ended that. China’s manufacturing prowess required the economies of scale of all China being under a single government system. The Americans enabled that. China’s import-export model requires freedom of the seas for commercial shipping to sale the ocean blue without military escort. The American Navy guaranteed that. Without the American-led Order, the Chinese would have never been able to unify or industrialize or modernize or urbanize.

Today, as the Americans step back, there is less than zero hope for the Chinese to step forward. China’s navy is short-range, designed to recapture Taiwan. Convoying clusters of slow-moving supertankers to and from the Persian Gulf is simply beyond China’s capability, much less enforcing the sort of all-ocean maritime safety that the Americans have done as a matter of course these past seven decades.

If anything, it is worse than it sounds.

Energy: China has had no equivalent of the American shale revolution. As the Americans have achieved net energy independence, the Chinese have quadrupled down on becoming the world’s largest oil importer, with the bulk of their oil needs sourced from none other than the Middle East. China lacks the ability to convoy tankers to and from the region (past oil-importing regional rivals Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and India no less), much less intervene in a way that might preserve oil flows in the way the United States has done almost pathologically these past seven decades.

Agriculture: Some 80% of global foodstuffs can only be produced with imported inputs, whether that input be fuel or fertilizer or fungicide. China has plowed under its best farmland to build all those factories, making the country more input-dependent than most: China today uses some five times the inputs per unit of food of American farmers and still hasn’t achieved food self-sufficiency. In a world without trade China can neither import sufficient foodstuffs from a continent away nor grow its own. Failures in food distribution have crashed far more governments than war or disease. Just ask Mao how he rose to power.

Manufacturing: Modern manufacturing is a logistical marvel that taps hundreds of facilities in dozens of countries, but that system is based on frictionless international trade. Break just a few links and the entire network collapses. A modern car has about 2000 parts. If you are missing ten, you’ve got a large paperweight. Even if the Chinese could somehow magically maintain their globe-spanning supply chains without a globe-spanning navy, there remains the question of who would buy everything?

Demographics: The One Child Policy has gutted the country’s next generation of consumers far more effectively than anything the Cultural Revolution or Great Leap Forward ever did. The mean Chinese aged past the mean American about two years ago, so a consumption-led system at home is simply off the table. Slow-moving aging throughout the bulk of the world is doing something similar in Europe and Canada and Brazil and the former Soviet Union and Japan and Korea. Even if somehow the Chinese could make their manufacturing system work without the American security blanket, the export-based model upon which contemporary China is based would have ended this decade anyway for want of consumers.

In a world where the Americans do the security heavy lifting and guarantee the world access to their consumer market – one of only a few that will not contract in the 2020s and 2030s – China’s global integration efforts aren’t simply smart, they are doomed to succeed. In a world in which the Americans’ step back and the rules by which the world works change, China is doomed to do the other thing.

Which means coronavirus is giving us a rare gift. A glimpse into a future without globalized manufacturing in general, but in specific a glimpse into a world without China.

Any company or industry that can weather the suspension of industrial activity in the Pearl and Yangtze should be able to manage the coming global collapse with relative ease. Any that can’t, well, they now know precisely where their exposures are. The question now is whether impacted firms treat this as a one-off or the serendipitous peek that it is.

https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de ... 001b62f4db

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 06 Mar 2020 19:49

'Fake, Fake': senior Chinese leader heckled by residents on visit to Wuhan

A top Chinese official visiting Wuhan has been heckled by residents who yelled “fake, fake, everything is fake” as she inspected the work of a neighbourhood committee charged with taking care of quarantined residents.

Vice-premier Sun Chunlan, one of the most senior government officials to visit the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, toured a residential community in Wuhan’s Qingshan district on Thursday. According to state media, Sun was inspecting the operations of the neighbourhood committee, meant to make checks on residents each day and distribute necessities like medicine, food and fresh vegetables.

Videos posted online showed Sun and a delegation walking along the grounds while residents appeared to shout from their apartment windows, “fake, fake,” “it’s all fake,” as well as “we protest”. Some could be heard yelling, “formalism,” a term that has employed frequently recently to criticise ineffective measures taken by government representatives for the sake of appearances.

In an unusual turn of events, on Friday various Chinese state media outlets reported the videos showing public discontent. Such videos are frequently censored from Chinese social media and government-run outlets have been focused on stories of “positive energy” to boost morale in the fight against the coronavirus.

Yet, the People’s Daily posted a video subtitled in English showing one person shouting “fake, fake,” which has since been removed. Other outlets like Beijing Youth Daily reported on the incident. A government-affiliated account on WeChat, Taoran Notes, said in an essay posted on Thursday that all the facts of the incident were “basically true”......

Observers say state media may be trying to co-opt discussion of the videos ,which circulated widely online, and provide their own narrative of events. The incident also provides the central government an opportunity to show it responding to public sentiment, after a wave of public anger over the suppression of early warnings of the virus.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 06 Mar 2020 21:49

Situation in the US and Italy is indeed alarming. The US has been consistently a few weeks behind the curve. A patient who tested COVID+ was quarantined, but his wife was not and she visited all over town, till her public minded nephew ratted on her on SM. In either Kind or Snohomish county, a third of the entire county fire department had to be quarantined because they were exposed to a patient. In Santa Clara, seven firemen/paramedics did CPR on a patient dying from COVID.

This thing is exposing a chain of incompetence at every level - city, county, state and federal govt. And if the US response is found wanting compared to Chinese, we will be in for interesting times indeed.

As for India.. I am hopeful that the hot weather and lack of air conditioning saves us.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 06 Mar 2020 22:38

Lack of air conditioning is definitely a plus. Places with centralized a/c will be problematic.
Metro trains too have ducted air handling.

Single units attached to a room may be ok.

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 06 Mar 2020 23:27

Update on numbers:

Number of global cases (known) - 100,300+
Number of global deaths (known) - 3,400+
Mortality Rate (known cases) - 3.4%

Given that many mild Coronavirus cases may go unreported, the actual mortality rate may be lesser than 3.5%, perhaps in 1% range. - Experts.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronaviru ... _lead_pos2

"On Friday, a top Hong Kong university released research that surmised the “fatality risk” for symptomatic Covid-19 patients was 1.4%, based on data its researchers analyzed from the city of Wuhan.

That is lower than the 3.4% mortality rate cited earlier this week by the World Health Organization, which was calculated from the number of deaths relative to the total number of confirmed infections.

U.S. health officials, in contrast, have said they think the mortality rate for the novel coronavirus is likely between 0.1% and 1%, in part because there could be many unreported cases or asymptomatic carriers of the virus." - WSJ

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Mar 2020 00:58

Again for scientists/molecular biologists / nerds and those who are not allergic to math and interested in technical details ...

About comprehensive study of combine genomic data .. there is is very nice paper from China .. and like the US molecular biologists is quite interesting and a lot of people are finding it very helpful. (I posted the paper and a few news stories about US paper)

Here is the link from National Science Review site : (Now it is Open access):
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-ar ... 36/5775463

On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2

I will quote the abstract of the article below but here are a few interesting items (My take - read the whole article if something is not clear) :

- There is quite a bit of data and data analysis about the mutations and generations of the virus .
- Basically, based on RNA sequencing - two main version of SARS-CoV-2 Viruses (along with many sub divisions):
"S" is the original (First iteration from Wuhan) - Now less deadly - now accounting for roughly 30% of the cases..
"L" is evolved - about 70% (more deadly/serious type too)

There are finer subdivision ... In few cases, same patient had both L and S (quite strange - infected twice ?)..

ABSTRACT
The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic started in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since impacted a large portion of China and raised major global concern. Herein, we investigated the extent of molecular divergence between SARS-CoV-2 and other related coronaviruses. Although we found only 4% variability in genomic nucleotides between SARS-CoV-2 and a bat SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV; RaTG13), the difference at neutral sites was 17%, suggesting the divergence between the two viruses is much larger than previously estimated. Our results suggest that the development of new variations in functional sites in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike seen in SARS-CoV-2 and viruses from pangolin SARSr-CoVs are likely caused by mutations and natural selection besides recombination. Population genetic analyses of 103 SARS-CoV-2 genomes indicated that these viruses evolved into two major types (designated L and S), that are well defined by two different SNPs that show nearly complete linkage across the viral strains sequenced to date. Although the L type (∼70%) is more prevalent than the S type (∼30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure. These findings strongly support an urgent need for further immediate, comprehensive studies that combine genomic data, epidemiological data, and chart records of the clinical symptoms of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Mar 2020 01:22

sudeepj wrote:

As for India.. I am hopeful that the hot weather and lack of air conditioning saves us.

Here is my take on "hot weather" ... (Based on current data and traditional thinking).

There has been quite a bit of data/study about spread of "corona viruses" and humidity and temperature .. There is some understanding (and mathematical models) on how water droplets (with viruses) behave etc..Of course this is a new f virus and more data will always be more helpful.

I have posted some graph(s) before here.and there is additional data. Things to me look quite optimistic. The data is quite stark. Rate of spread in southern hemisphere (where it is summer) and equatorial region is *much* less. Now it is quite probable that cases in tropical countries yet have not been reported (or are not in our database) so confidence level is still modest.

But another week or so if it goes without *domestic* outbreaks in tropical countries, the more confidence level!

(I am also looking at "doubling" time .. some of the graphs which have not been that popular among those published - More familiar tools - used in studying radioactive decay / nuclear fission rates.. can be helpful here).

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Mar 2020 01:32

Some comments on death rate: Posting some thing I saw which I think is quite correct.

Scenarios:
- If contained about 0.5% (0.4 to 0.8 range).
- If not contained ( like Wuhan/Iran) 5%
- Significantly more deadly for older people.

By "not contained", I mean hospitals / health services overrun ityadi. ..

(Of course, Our POTUS' "hunch" 3-4% is false number it is less than 1%.. way less than 1%

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Mar 2020 01:43

sudeepj wrote:Situation in the US and Italy is indeed alarming. The US has been consistently a few weeks behind the curve. A patient who tested COVID+ was quarantined, but his wife was not and she visited all over town, till her public minded nephew ratted on her on SM. In either Kind or Snohomish county, a third of the entire county fire department had to be quarantined because they were exposed to a patient. In Santa Clara, seven firemen/paramedics did CPR on a patient dying from COVID.

This thing is exposing a chain of incompetence at every level - city, county, state and federal govt. And if the US response is found wanting compared to Chinese, we will be in for interesting times indeed.

.

This is serious .. and happening too often..hope things improve and improve fast.
(BTW - The thread of the situation described above may be worth reading: https://twitter.com/iheartWallSt/status ... 56770?s=20

Or see this:
https://twitter.com/Iam_BrookeSmith/sta ... 63392?s=20

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Mar 2020 03:21

kit · Post by **kit** » 07 Mar 2020 03:52

Amber G. wrote:
sudeepj wrote:

As for India.. I am hopeful that the hot weather and lack of air conditioning saves us.
Here is my take on "hot weather" ... (Based on current data and traditional thinking).

There has been quite a bit of data/study about spread of "corona viruses" and humidity and temperature .. There is some understanding (and mathematical models) on how water droplets (with viruses) behave etc..Of course this is a new f virus and more data will always be more helpful.

I have posted some graph(s) before here.and there is additional data. Things to me look quite optimistic. The data is quite stark. Rate of spread in southern hemisphere (where it is summer) and equatorial region is *much* less. Now it is quite probable that cases in tropical countries yet have not been reported (or are not in our database) so confidence level is still modest.

But another week or so if it goes without *domestic* outbreaks in tropical countries, the more confidence level!

(I am also looking at "doubling" time .. some of the graphs which have not been that popular among those published - More familiar tools - used in studying radioactive decay / nuclear fission rates.. can be helpful here).

looks like even grandma's rasam has a found a place as a 'remedy " for corona virus

kit · Post by **kit** » 07 Mar 2020 03:55

Vadivel wrote:The “Gift” of Coronavirus
by Peter Zeihan on March 6, 2020

In the past couple of weeks coronavirus cases outside of China surged. Particularly worrisome clusters emerged in South Korea and Iran, countries which serve as transport hubs for their respective worlds. US President Donald Trump is doing his normal rambling press conference thing, contradicting most of what little information that is out there. Data coming out of China is more positive, but the idea that China and only China has cracked the code on how to stop a highly virulent virus from spreading in dense population centers is, in a word, dubious. Is anyone not feeling at least a bit…twitchy?

Let’s shift the conversation: Coronavirus may be the most positive thing that’s happened to the global economy in recent years.

China is the world’s workshop. There are precious few complex manufacturing supply chains that don’t link to the mainland in at least some way, with computing, electronics and automotive by far the most exposed. China represents a bit more than a fourth of global manufacturing output all on its own and sports seven of the ten busiest container ports in the world.

The two zones in China most impacted by coronavirus are the Pearl Delta and Yangtze Valley. Most of the 150 million people in China under some degree of involuntary quarantine reside in these zones. The Pearl and the Yangtze are the two most technologically advanced portions of the country, sporting the most sophisticated industrial bases. These regions are by far the most internationally connected of China’s population zones.

The viral epicenter city of Wuhan is one of the largest automotive manufacturing centers in China. Nissan and Honda alone manufacture nearly 2.25 million automobiles there annually. Dongguan, a city in the Pearl River Delta, is known as “the world’s factory” and on its own produces an estimated one-fifth of the world’s smartphones and one-tenth of its shoes.

We’ve all read about how this or that product or company or industry faces pressure from the Chinese shut-ins. So far, shipping companies have cancelled over 80 sailings of container ships, meaning that tens of billions of dollars of goods, many of them inputs into other goods, either weren’t produced or couldn’t get where they needed to go. The sudden lurch in China’s $70 billion annual auto-parts exports industry is already stalling automobile manufacturing in South Korea and Eastern Europe.

But here’s the thing: China’s position in the global system is artificial, and it was going to end anyway.

A look back:

To distill America’s entire Cold War strategy: the Americans created a global Order to provide an economic incentive for membership in their military alliance network. The Americans broke the empires and paid everyone to be on their side against the Soviets. Of the many unintentional side effects was the fostering of an environment where no one shot at anyone else’s shipping, no matter how valuable that shipping might be.

In absolute terms, China is by far the biggest beneficiary of this American-led Order. Japan and the Europeans had carved Chinese territory into imperial spheres of influence. The Americans ended that. China’s manufacturing prowess required the economies of scale of all China being under a single government system. The Americans enabled that. China’s import-export model requires freedom of the seas for commercial shipping to sale the ocean blue without military escort. The American Navy guaranteed that. Without the American-led Order, the Chinese would have never been able to unify or industrialize or modernize or urbanize.

Today, as the Americans step back, there is less than zero hope for the Chinese to step forward. China’s navy is short-range, designed to recapture Taiwan. Convoying clusters of slow-moving supertankers to and from the Persian Gulf is simply beyond China’s capability, much less enforcing the sort of all-ocean maritime safety that the Americans have done as a matter of course these past seven decades.

If anything, it is worse than it sounds.

Energy: China has had no equivalent of the American shale revolution. As the Americans have achieved net energy independence, the Chinese have quadrupled down on becoming the world’s largest oil importer, with the bulk of their oil needs sourced from none other than the Middle East. China lacks the ability to convoy tankers to and from the region (past oil-importing regional rivals Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and India no less), much less intervene in a way that might preserve oil flows in the way the United States has done almost pathologically these past seven decades.

Agriculture: Some 80% of global foodstuffs can only be produced with imported inputs, whether that input be fuel or fertilizer or fungicide. China has plowed under its best farmland to build all those factories, making the country more input-dependent than most: China today uses some five times the inputs per unit of food of American farmers and still hasn’t achieved food self-sufficiency. In a world without trade China can neither import sufficient foodstuffs from a continent away nor grow its own. Failures in food distribution have crashed far more governments than war or disease. Just ask Mao how he rose to power.

Manufacturing: Modern manufacturing is a logistical marvel that taps hundreds of facilities in dozens of countries, but that system is based on frictionless international trade. Break just a few links and the entire network collapses. A modern car has about 2000 parts. If you are missing ten, you’ve got a large paperweight. Even if the Chinese could somehow magically maintain their globe-spanning supply chains without a globe-spanning navy, there remains the question of who would buy everything?

Demographics: The One Child Policy has gutted the country’s next generation of consumers far more effectively than anything the Cultural Revolution or Great Leap Forward ever did. The mean Chinese aged past the mean American about two years ago, so a consumption-led system at home is simply off the table. Slow-moving aging throughout the bulk of the world is doing something similar in Europe and Canada and Brazil and the former Soviet Union and Japan and Korea. Even if somehow the Chinese could make their manufacturing system work without the American security blanket, the export-based model upon which contemporary China is based would have ended this decade anyway for want of consumers.

In a world where the Americans do the security heavy lifting and guarantee the world access to their consumer market – one of only a few that will not contract in the 2020s and 2030s – China’s global integration efforts aren’t simply smart, they are doomed to succeed. In a world in which the Americans’ step back and the rules by which the world works change, China is doomed to do the other thing.

Which means coronavirus is giving us a rare gift. A glimpse into a future without globalized manufacturing in general, but in specific a glimpse into a world without China.

Any company or industry that can weather the suspension of industrial activity in the Pearl and Yangtze should be able to manage the coming global collapse with relative ease. Any that can’t, well, they now know precisely where their exposures are. The question now is whether impacted firms treat this as a one-off or the serendipitous peek that it is.

https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de ... 001b62f4db

Frankly that article is written a little too soon, watch and see how the virus rips through US of A !!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Mar 2020 04:04

Update from UlanBator:

Notice at testing lab:

Go get Doctor's orders to test, don't come here

Notice at Doctors' Office:

Don't come inside if you have even any concern about CoVi. Go to "County Health"

I asked where is County Health. They said:

Contact Health Department.

I decided not to ask WTH is a Health Dept and how to contact that.
So I predict that there will be a lot of traffic of ppl driving around figuring out where to surrender to Quarantine and die in an approved manner.

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Mar 2020 04:09

kit wrote: Frankly that article is written a little too soon, watch and see how the virus rips through US of A !!

Today, I saw a 25 year old man in the morning washing his car with gloves, face mask, rubber boots and disposable plastic rain jacket. It was a fine morning and in this parts, finding another soul within 500 mtrs radius is as good as snow leopard sighting.

I think that Koranovirus is more dangerous than Corona Virus.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Mar 2020 04:14

disha wrote: Koranovirus is more dangerous than Corona Virus.

Put that up in the Lex-e-Con ul PeeAref bliss!

But I must admit: the sweater I wore to the daphtar-e-doc for chai-biscoot, was put in the Washer immediately upon return.
IMO this is the roadmap:
1. Panic induced by the whole Poultry-Little tribes and Experts
2. Dhoti-Shivering
3. Gradual realization that one feels much more silly than sick.
4. Sun comes out next week as US Springs Forward.
5. Something more interesting comes on TV.
Otherwise we would still be wearing the masks from SARS and H1N1.

All said and done, this CV Scare is a Rich People's Luxury Scare. Fear of Catching Cold and Cough. Sure it is serious for anyone who catches it - just like catching pneumonia, TB, or any one of hajaar maladies, or crossing the street while wearing a Level 5 Mask and getting runover by a driver wearing a Level 6. I bet in the depths of Africa or Australia they have not even heard of this, the former are still dying of Ebola or West Nile Virus.

But a lot of ppl are getting rich even as honest businessppl go broke and people get laid off. One British Airline (FlyBe) is already shaheed.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Mar 2020 04:31

Poem in Honor of CV

Prof. Balram Singh who actually knows these things pretty well. He is the one who pointed out that the Earth actually belongs to virii since they will win any democratic election with over 99.999999999999% majority.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 07 Mar 2020 05:06

China's coronavirus recovery is 'all fake,' whistleblowers and residents claim

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinas-coron ... 00391.html

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 07 Mar 2020 05:07

Also, from now on, Covid-19 is called "Wuhan Virus' (by the Uncle's S of State).
And it is giving Red Panda very 'takleef'.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Mar 2020 06:00

kit wrote:
Amber G. wrote:
Here is my take on "hot weather" ... (Based on current data and traditional thinking).
<snip>
.
looks like even grandma's rasam has a found a place as a 'remedy " for corona virus

Can you expand on what do you mean? (I am missing something when you talk about "gandma's rasam').
Anyway assuming your post was not an attempt of humor onlee..

- Hot weather (or grandma's rasmam) does not kill SAR - CoV virus. It does NOT cure COVID-19.

But hot-weather (and humidity etc) does affect virus transmission. This is the one of the main reason that Flu cases are more in the winter.
The droplets (say after a cough) do not stay longer in the atmosphere and cause less transmission. How long virus survives on a surface, may also depend on such factors.

Similarly grandma's rasam (or good sleep, or chicken soup or Vitamin D) do not kill the virus or is a 'cure". But it may help the person to feel good, can improve person's immune system and thus can indirectly of help.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 07 Mar 2020 06:42

UlanBatori wrote:...
IMO this is the roadmap:
1. Panic induced by the whole Poultry-Little tribes and Experts
2. Dhoti-Shivering
3. Gradual realization that one feels much more silly than sick.
4. Sun comes out next week as US Springs Forward.
5. Something more interesting comes on TV.
...

Little detour in the CT land...looking at the widespread sky-ij-falling choreographed mood (thanks to MSM) in the bahadur land including airlines flying empty, cancelled corporate conferences, large gathering being avoided, skyward sales of hand sanitizer/wipes, cruise lines going around $h!t scared; Q1 GDP and Q2 GDP (likely) will be negative. This, by definition, calls for ~~man-made~~ recession (by the end of June 2020). One finally after 11 years. Government will start throwing helicopter money in Q2 and Q3; followed by elections in Q4 (Nov'20). Bingo!! Not sure if it helps DT or hurts DT.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 07 Mar 2020 07:11

Grandma's rasam or not, most desi preparations, including rasam, use turmeric which has known anti-viral properties. One home remedy for cough and cold in the south is to drink hot milk with a dash of turmeric and black pepper. Works.

Does this mean we can use turmeric to fight Covid? No - we don't know. But it surely can't hurt.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Mar 2020 07:32

Rasam with garlic and pepper is esp good for colds. The pepper burns right through the Ground Glass Opacity and the garlic sure keeps everyone else.

away...

On eKhanoComics, of course I don't know, but about 1 month from now Cheen stuff will hit the West Coast again, big time, and cheen enterprise will be cranking money in and out. So I would say that this is an entirely (wo)man-made recession. Nevertheless, Darwinian basics may hit home and knock several companies out.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 07 Mar 2020 07:56

Meanwhile, news from desh:

HYD:
Coronavirus scare: 45 of the 47 samples test negative in Hyderabad

Two suspected COVID-19 cases in Hyderabad test negative

Relief in Hyderabad as two suspected Corona samples test negative

Family to be tested again Family members of COVID positive techie to be tested once more to rule out any chance of the infection as the incubation period of the virus is 14 days. All 88 first contact people are under home isolation.

MAA/TN:
No coronavirus case in Tamil Nadu, 54 have tested negative, says state Health Minister

CHENNAI: There are no positive cases of coronavirus in Tamil Nadu where 54 samples have tested negative and 1,243 people were being monitored, state Health Minister C Vijayabaskar said here on Friday.

Over 8,000 passengers arrive from 50 plus flights everyday here and all of them were being examined for symptoms of the pathogen, he said.

BOM:
66,977 travellers screened at Mumbai airport till March; 4,161 suspected COVID-19 patients test negative

DEL:
Coronavirus: Five people who came in contact with Paytm employee quarantined in Delhi

Coronavirus outbreak: Delhi government orders closure of all primary schools till March 31

Relief as Noida students, kin test negative for coronavirus

Coronavirus outbreak: DMRC issues advisory, to step up cleaning on metro premises

BLR:
Bengaluru can breathe easy as 5 test negative for COVID-19

One of them is an Iranian national, the second, from Telangana, is the coworker of an affected techie, the third is the techie’s roommate, and the fourth and fifth are Indian nationals.

Coronavirus: Test results of three people awaited

So far 717 persons have been identified for observation. As many as 469 people are still under home quarantine, including people who have travelled to COVID-19-affected countries and people who were in contact with people who tested positive for COVID-19.

So far 343 samples of symptomatic persons are sent for testing and 296 samples came back negative.

KL:
Coronavirus: Health dept chalks out new action plan

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The state Health department has chalked out an action plan for implementing the recommendations of the National Training of Trainers on COVID-19 in the state. The national-level workshop organised by the Union Health Ministry and WHO India office at New Delhi on Friday focused on hospital preparedness, infection prevention and control, risk communications and community engagement. The department had deputed three officers to attend the programme.

Scenario-based approach
The Containment Plan prepared by the Centre has been provided to the state. The plan mentions a scenario-based approach, and lists four possible scenarios — travel-related cases reported in India, local transmission of COVID-19, community transmission of COVID-19 and India becoming endemic to COVID-19. The plan that stresses on cluster containment strategy to contain the disease within a defined geographic area by early detection, breaking the chain of transmission and thus preventing its spread to new areas, also gives priority to surveillance, contact tracing and others.

Kerala switches to 24-hr universal screening for all passengers

Speaking to TNIE, Dr Amar Fettle, state Nodal Officer for Public Health Emergencies, said, “We have increased the number of medical teams and thermal image scanners at Trivandrum Airport from two to four. In the case of Cochin International Airport, as many as 12 thermal image scanners are available in place of the initial five. Similarly, the number of medical teams and thermal image scanners would be enhanced in Calicut and Kannur international airports,” he said.

Other states/national:
Coronavirus: Indian Army to expand quarantine facilities at multiple locations

With the number of coronavirus cases swelling in the country, the Indian Army on Friday decided to expand quarantine facilities at multiple locations with an additional capacity to cater to 1,500 people.

The Army has also issued an advisory to military stations, army formations and service hospitals on ways to fight the coronavirus, including asking its personnel to avoid all non-essential foreign travels.

Army sources said the possible locations to set up quarantine facilities included Jaisalmer, Suratgarh, Secundrabad, Chennai and Kolkata.

So far, India has 31 confirmed cases of the infection while nearly 29,000 people have been put under surveillance.

Coronavirus treatment for each patient to cost government Rs 3,000

Speaking to Express, a well-placed official said, “Each COVID testing kit (RNA testing kit) is close to `2,000. However, these test kits have been procured from the Central government for free

Coronavirus in India: Indian Railways all divisional, sub-divisional railway hospitals to have isolation wards - FE

COVID-19: 9 more airports to have thermal screening, total 30

As per the latest advisory, all international passengers irrespective of nationality are mandated to undergo universal medical screening.

NEW DELHI: In the backdrop of coronavirus spreading in India, thermal screening has been expanded to nine more airports in India besides the existing 21, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare said on Friday.

13 Iranian tourists quarantined in Amritsar

Iranian flight to bring swab samples of Indians stranded in coronavirus-hit Iran

NEW DELHI: Amid the spread of coronavirus, Iranian carrier Mahan Air will bring blood samples of nearly 300 Indians stranded in Iran and while returning, it will fly back Iranian nationals stranded in India.

There are about 2,000 Indians mostly from the Kargil area of Kashmir stranded in Iran. They had gone to visit a religious shrine in Iran but got stuck as regular commercial flights were suspended between the two countries following the spread of the virus.

A team of Indian doctors have already been sent to Iran for ensuring that stranded citizens there are thoroughly examined before boarding the evacuation flight.

Unless otherwise noted, all links from TNIE.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Mar 2020 08:54

^^ I hope a few *** agintz too to check on these.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 07 Mar 2020 09:00

India dismisses Japan’s concerns on visa curbs over coronavirus outbreak as ‘overreaction’ - MSN via HT

Japan has made a diplomatic representation to India expressing concern at visa restrictions imposed on its nationals in connection with the coronavirus outbreak, prompting people familiar with developments in New Delhi to say that there is no "political reason" behind the move.

The Japanese side, in a formal diplomatic representation submitted in New Delhi on Wednesday, is understood to have informed the external affairs ministry the visa restrictions would hamper the operations of Japanese firms in India.

The Japanese side contended that India's decision to lump it with other countries subject to visa restrictions - China, South Korea, Iran and Italy - was not balanced as these nations have recorded far more cases of infections and deaths.

It is also understood to have argued the restrictions would affect the work of Japanese managers in decision-making role and experts and engineers working on Ahmedabad-Mumbai bullet train project.

The people familiar with developments in New Delhi, who spoke on condition of anonymity, described Tokyo's response as an over-reaction and said there were no political reasons behind India's visa restrictions.

"The decision was made purely on health grounds so that infections don't spread over a larger area in the country...," said a person. "Others can complain but we are dealing with an epidemic. Japan too has taken steps to protect its citizens and didn't allow those on board the cruise ship Diamond Princess to disembark and be treated in hospitals on the shore," he added.

The people noted there was no visa ban on nationals of other countries, while procedures had been put in place to ensure proper screening of all visa applicants.

The Indian embassy in Tokyo also tweeted on Friday: "Please rest assured that essential travels...are being facilitated by @IndianEmbTokyo and @IndianConsOsaka..."

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 07 Mar 2020 09:04

Speaking of Poultry Little:

New CDC guidance says older adults should 'stay at home as much as possible' due to coronavirus
By Elizabeth Cohen, Senior Medical Correspondent and Chicken Little
Updated 7:17 PM ET, Fri March 6, 2020

This advice is on a CDC website that was posted Thursday, according to a CDC spokeswoman.
Early data suggests older people are twice as likely to have serious illness from the novel coronavirus, according to the CDC.
A Trump administration official tells CNN that the US Department of Health and Human Services "is in the process of doing targeted outreach to the elderly community and those that have serious underlying health conditions...The CDC guidance comes as two top infectious disease experts with ties to the federal government have advised people over 60 and those with underlying health problems to strongly consider avoiding activities that involve large crowds, such as traveling by airplane, going to movie theaters or concerts, attending family events, shopping at crowded malls, and going to religious services..."This ought to be top of mind for people over 60, and those with underlying health problems, such as heart or lung disease, diabetes, or compromised immune systems," Schaffner added. "The single most important thing you can do to avoid the virus is reduce your face to face contact with people.""

"When my wife and I need to go shopping, we're going late at night when there are no crowds, and we get in and out efficiently," Schaffner said.

{:rotfl: So he gets her out in the -20C windchill instead of getting a good night's sleep. And the checkout counter person who has had 500 ppl go past her, is not infected, of course, so he is safe. }
He added that his wife goes to a bridge club with dozens of other people -- but not anymore.
"She enjoys bridge and it's an important part of her life and it keeps her mentally active, but she's going to give it up for a while," he said..But someone might want to avoid, for example, a regular weekend religious service.
"Don't go. Be reverent at home," Schaffner said.

.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 07 Mar 2020 09:19

Kati wrote:Also, from now on, Covid-19 is called "Wuhan Virus' (by the Uncle's S of State).
And it is giving Red Panda very 'takleef'.

Syphilis was called the 'French disease', except in France it was called the Spanish disease. I am sure the sugar people will come up with something similar.
Gautam

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 07 Mar 2020 09:24

So the initial reassuring "facts" which were being posted to scare people don't seem to be true anymore.

1. This virus spreads through the air

No, right now, it seems there is no evidence of this mode of spread:

https://www.livescience.com/how-coronav ... reads.html

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/02/41667 ... -be-enough

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... your-cheek

The primary mode of transmission seems to be when somebody coughs on you (not sneezes - since this does not seem to be an upper respiratory tract thingy), and the secondary mode seems to be through pawing infected surfaces and then rubbing your face. Avoid those, and transmission should drop drastically.

2. The incubation period could be as long as 28 days:

No, now it seems the average incubation period is 5 days, but could be as much as 11 days in some cases. The 21 day instance seemed to be due to double exposure.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as- ... 0022719004

3. Mortality rate - among those infected who actually show symptoms, the mortality rate could be up to 1.4%. There are many who get infected, who never show symptoms (their immune system deals with it the natural way). So the actual mortality rate could be like 4 to 10 times worse than the flu, maybe even less. If untreated, the symptomatic cases could of course have a much higher mortality rate. But this is (probably) true of the flu as well.

How about that R0 number of 2 to 3, which is much higher than the "regular" flu? Well, I'd like to submit that the R0 number is highly dependent on the behavior of the population itself. If the population is into hand-shaking (followed by finger-licking), hugging, kissing on greeting, all that kind of thing, then the R0 is definitely going to be high, it is not a characteristic of the disease alone. Maybe these kinds of behaviors accentuate this disease more than the flu. Rather than freaking about the high(er) R0, it would be advisable to modify our behavior patterns themselves.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 07 Mar 2020 09:31

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/worl ... -news.html
Coronavirus Live Updates: Cases in the U.S. Break 300
Stocks fall as Europe and the U.S. struggle to contain the virus, while the Chinese province at the center of the outbreak reported no new infections outside its capital, Wuhan.
RIGHT NOW Hawaii reported its first coronavirus case, a person who had been on the Grand Princess cruise ship.
The U.S. caseload rises past 300, most in Washington State and California.
Authorities across the United States reported 303 cases of coronavirus and 15 deaths as of Friday, with the West Coast bearing the brunt of the toll. The number of infections does not count the 21 people who have tested positive aboard a cruise ship off California.
Hawaii reported its first case, a person who had been on the cruise ship, the Grand Princess. Washington State has recorded the most cases, more than 80, and the highest number of deaths, 14. Most of the fatal cases emerged from a Seattle-area nursing home. Officials in King County, Wash., said 15 residents of the facility, Life Care Center, had been taken to hospitals over the past 24 hours.
Two residents of other Seattle-area complexes that largely serve elderly people have now also been hospitalized and tested positive, officials said, identifying them as Issaquah Nursing & Rehabilitation Center and Ida Culver House Ravenna.
Starbucks reported Friday night that one of its employees in downtown Seattle had tested positive. The company said the store has been closed for cleaning. Also in the Seattle area, two Microsoft employees were being treated for the coronavirus, a company spokesman said. Microsoft did not close its campus, but it had already advised employees to work from home if possible.
The University of Washington, with 50,000 students, said that it would cancel in-person classes from Monday through at least March 20, and have students take classes and final exams remotely. Seattle University, with about 7,300 students, also said it would move to online classes for the rest of the winter quarter, and Northeastern University in Boston will do the same for students on its Seattle campus.
The chief federal judge in Seattle ordered the cancellation of all in-person federal court hearings in western Washington State.
California has treated 70 people for the virus, one of whom has died, and new cases continue to emerge at a worrying rate. An employee of the F.B.I.’s San Francisco division tested positive, the first confirmed case at the bureau.
.....
Gautam

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Mar 2020 09:41

For perspective:
South Korea performed 140,000 + tests up till now - (Sensitivity about 95%)
While US about 1,500 (up from about 500 in a day or so) (Lot of problems and difficulties in initial stages - Sensitivity estimated *much* lower)

Good News that there are indications that some states are getting better (eg NY can conduct 500 tests a day) .

BTW Death rate computed from ROK data is about 0.6%

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 07 Mar 2020 10:22

Amber G. wrote:
tandav wrote: Host on your google drive and add the link here.. you can do spreadsheets and PDF etc (make it open to public)
Thanks. That's obviously a nice way to do it and I know folks do it here.
(I have been doing that for years -- But having it managed by brf, makes logistics a little easier - when you deleted/rearranged your cloud files (I have generally used dropbox and googledrive or link to my other SM posts) and pictures gets bad links).
No biggie..May be some day brf can have it's own native support.
Thanks again.
(What I would really like to get LaTex support in Math/Physics dhaga )

Perhaps BRF can give access to members to BRF shared folder google/dropbox etc(owned by BRF) where member can upload files. The only issue is privacy. I think when you upload the file then other viewers can know the email address of the uploader

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 07 Mar 2020 10:32

sudarshan wrote:So the initial reassuring "facts" which were being posted to scare people don't seem to be true anymore.

Sudarshan ji - Few comments:
No reputable scientist will claim to know exact numbers of "facts",, And it is not scientific to claim to know these numbers just because one has a good hunch. IMO, at least for me, It is NOT a contest of whose guess was correct and "I told you so type statement" - unless based on scientific reasoning are not that helpful.

Most of these numbers we don't know, as we get more data we will be surer..

But let me comment on your post.

1. This virus spreads through the air

No, right now, it seems there is no evidence of this mode of spread:

Technically most say that it is NOT (at least not the primary or significant) mode. But CDC/WHO also recommend 6+ feet distance. Scientifically all one can talk about is probability .. yes you are correct this is sharing air is *not* as dangerous as some other dreaded diseases, definitely no evidence that it is anywhere close to that but it is *not* zero. How small, jury is still out.

2. The incubation period could be as long as 28 days:
No, now it seems the average incubation period is 5 days, but could be as much as 11 days in some cases.

Let me just put the worldometer data - of course these are just numbers based on what data they are using -- This gives better understanding.

>>> Coronavirus Incubation Period:
Last updated: February 23, 2:00 GMT:
2 - 14 days with Possible outliers: 0 - 27 days
(2-14 days represents the current official estimated range for the novel coronavirus COVID-19.

However, a case with an incubation period of 27 days has been reported by Hubei Province local government on Feb. 22,
a case with an incubation period of 19 days was observed in a JAMA study of 5 cases published on Feb. 21
An outlier of a 24 days incubation period had been for the first time observed in a Feb. 9 study.[(WHO said at the time that this could actually reflect a second exposure rather than a long incubation period, and that it wasn't going to change its recommendations)

Mean incubation period observed:
3.0 days (0 - 24 days range, study based on 1,324 cases)
5.2 days (4.1 - 7.0 days range, based on 425 cases).
Mean incubation period observed in travelers from Wuhan:
6.4 days (range from 2.1 to 11.1 days).

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported an incubation period for 2019-nCoV between 2 and 10 days.
China’s National Health Commission (NHC) had initially estimated an incubation period from 10 to 14 days
The United States' CDC estimates the incubation period for 2019-nCoV to be between 2 and 14 days

A statistician will say:
The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [(4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days.
****
You make some good points about mortality rate and R0 .. I may comment on those issue in other posts..