Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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vera_k
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Correct. And the government is allowing those to be exported since they cannot be used in India. I am extending that logic to say that what other vaccines are exported will depend on what vaccines are required in India. The vaccines preferred for immunizations locally can change depending on the requirements for booster shots or performance of the vaccines against new variants.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by krisna »

Ivermectin black out in uttar pradesh by media scums
The WHO noted, "Government teams are moving across 97,941 villages in 75 districts over five days in this activity which began May 5 in India's most populous state with a population of 230 million."

The activity involved an aggressive house-to-house test and treat program with medicine kits.

The WHO explained, "Each monitoring team has two members who visit homes in villages and remote hamlets to test everyone with symptoms of COVID-19 using Rapid Antigen Test kits. Those who test positive are quickly isolated and given a medicine kit with advice on disease management."

The medicines comprising the kit were not identified as part of the Western media blackout at the time
. As a result, the contents were as secret as the sauce at McDonald's.

The WHO continued, "On the inaugural day, WHO field officers monitored over 2,000 government teams and visited at least 10,000 households."
Just five short weeks later, on June 14, 2021, new cases had dropped a staggering 97.1 percent, and the Uttar Pradesh program was hailed as a resounding success.
On August 6, 2021, India’s Ivermectin media blackout ended with MSN reporting. Western media, including MSN, finally acknowledged what was contained in those Uttar Pradesh medicine kits. Among the medicines were Doxycycline and Ivermectin.
On August 25, 2021, the Indian media noticed the discrepancy between Uttar Pradesh's massive success and other states, like Kerala's, comparative failure. Although Uttar Pradesh was only 5% vaccinated to Kerala's 20%, Uttar Pradesh had (only) 22 new COVID cases, while Kerala was overwhelmed with 31,445 in one day. So it became apparent that whatever was contained in those treatment kits must have been pretty effective.

News18 reported, "Let’s look at the contrasting picture. Kerala, with its 3.5 crore population - or 35 million, on August 25 reported 31,445 new cases, a bulk of the total cases reported in the country. Uttar Pradesh, the biggest state with a population of nearly 24 crore - or 240 million - meanwhile reported just 22 cases in the same period.




Long article but please read and spread it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by krisna »

Pratyush
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

WRT, the use of ivermectin, the DGHS had withdrawn approval for its usage in July. Whereas, ICMR, guidelines remained in place regarding both ivermectin and remdisiver.

This I think has generated a great deal of confusion.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

The likely full month of September performance is 240 million doses done.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Suraj wrote:The likely full month of September performance is 240 million doses done.
Unbelievable.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

India will have 27-28 cr vaccine doses in October
As the government aiming to vaccinate the majority of the adult population amid the third wave fears, the country will have 27-28 crore doses of Serum Institute of India's Covishield and Bharat Biotech's Covaxin against in the month of October, the sources said on Thursday.

However, this does not include vaccines of Biological E and Zydus Cadila, they added.
We should see many more days with over a crore vaccination days in October. In fact, we will need almost every weekday to be above 1 crore in order to consume the entire supply.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

We're also carrying 50 million doses into October today, so that's about 320-330m baseline supply which should yield a 275M+ figure in October.

What will we accomplish in October ?
A Laxman (281) ?
A Sehwag-lite (293) ?
A Sehwah-first (309) ?

Could even be a Sehwag-max (319) if Bio-E shows up in the middle order.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Hope to see Shewag-max
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

Again correlation does not mean causality. They should run a control with medical kits with placebo ivermectin. Perhaps it’s the outreach itself.

Why has Kerala not adopted ivermectin? Does it have a similar outreach program
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Ashokk »

WHO to decide on Bharat Biotech's emergency approval for Covaxin in October
United Nations/Geneva: A decision on Bharat Biotech's submission seeking emergency use listing (EUL) for its Covaxin COVID-19 vaccine will be made in October, the World Health Organisation has said. The status of the assessment for Covaxin is ongoing. Bharat Biotech had submitted EOI (Expression of Interest) on 19 April for its COVID-19 vaccine. The latest Status of COVID-19 vaccines within the WHO EUL/PQ evaluation process' guidance document dated 29 September on the WHO website said that the decision date for Bharat Biotech's Covaxin is October 2021.
WHO's review seems to be taking inordinately long, wonder how long the review of other vaccines took?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Next few days should be good days for vaccinations . The supply with states was siting below 50M for a few days and the number of centers open correspondingly was in the low 60Ks . Today these are up to over 50M and 73k respectively .
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by uddu »

The Growth rate must have peaked. Could see the start of a mild slowdown in 10 days.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 026_1.html


India does a tit for tat for UK citizens, travelers must isolate even if vaccinated.

Not sure how they will enforce or check the day 8 tests.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chanakyaa »

krisna wrote:Ivermectin black out in uttar pradesh by media scums
...
Now is the right moment to notice the onslaught of United States poison control articles attempting to smear Ivermectin, a drug proven safe and effective in the Uttar Pradesh test-and-treat program administered under the auspices of both the WHO and CDC.

It is appropriate to remind the reader that the WHO and CDC possess direct and recent knowledge of Ivermectin use for COVID-19 in India. Moreover, they know better than anyone the colossal effectiveness and overwhelming safety of Ivermectin used in those millions of Uttar Pradesh test and treat kits
...
Very interesting article. There should be article, books, movies made on how UP tackled it. Today, commercial interests from usual corners are making headlines on 5-day course of Molnupiravir. Don't have medical background, but reading about the basic information suggests that Ivermectin and Molnupiravir do things similarly, but the approach may be different?

Merck says research shows its COVID-19 pill works against variants (Molnupiravir)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Tanaji wrote:https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 026_1.html

India does a tit for tat for UK citizens, travelers must isolate even if vaccinated.

Not sure how they will enforce or check the day 8 tests.
The UK were stupid and they’re just paying for it:
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/144 ... 67459?s=21
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by dsreedhar »

It is good to see India counter UK. But would this not affect mostly Indian origin (descent) travelers?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Perhaps. OT comment in that the demand for this came from the English-speaking constituency in the country, which was refreshing to see for a change.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

dsreedhar wrote:It is good to see India counter UK. But would this not affect mostly Indian origin (descent) travelers?
It's their job to lobby their own government to fix stupid policy on their part. They chose to be subject to the policy structure of another country, they also have a responsibility to ensure they influence positively from within. The Indian government's job is to look after Indian interests.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

I was going to look this post on Oct 1.. so decided to look!

Amber G. wrote:Going to look at this post on Oct 1.. or end of this months to see how well this prediction did. :).
When all is said and done:
India's about
≈ 75% of adult population ~ ≈700 Million with at least one dose.
≈70% (655 Million actual)
≈ 25 % of adult population - ≈ 250 Million fully vaccinated.

≈26% (242 Million actual)
(Total shots delivered will be about 100% of adult population -- about 900 - 950 M )
≈95% (897 Million actual)

Beta (Contact parameter) will remain around 0.5 or become better - (Not too bad CAA type protests, new variant, people acting sensibly)
No new variants which are more transmissive found in September.. Beta is actually much better.
Sutra and other models not talking about the third or fourth wave but talking about Reaching herd immunity level by 15th November etc.
They are doing that - No new third wave except may be a very small local ripple
By Dec 31st - India is ready to ship vaccines to Vietnam and rest of the world.
Happening a little earlier :)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Data presented by Dr. Fauci at today's @WHCOVIDResponse briefing.
Not fully vaccinated are:
* 8X more likely to test positive for COVID19
* 41X more likely to be hospitalized from covid
* 57X more likely to die of covid-related illnesses
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

The US is at or near 720,000 Covid deaths, with some 300,000 dead in the last 8 months of the current administration. The handling of this pandemic by these last two administrations has been abysmal.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vivek K »

With extreme resistance to masks and vaccines it is a miracle that the US has not had 2-3 times more deaths. With salaries of school boards being withheld over masks and such amazing illiterate actions, the US will experience the pandemic far longer.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

Suraj wrote:
dsreedhar wrote:It is good to see India counter UK. But would this not affect mostly Indian origin (descent) travelers?
It's their job to lobby their own government to fix stupid policy on their part. They chose to be subject to the policy structure of another country, they also have a responsibility to ensure they influence positively from within. The Indian government's job is to look after Indian interests.
the Indian origin travellers having a place to stay in India have the facility of home quarantine but the non Indians wind up with a compulsory hotel stay for 10 days

As per the new rules mandated by the government, all UK nationals travelling to India will have to compulsorily need to undertake RT-PCR test 72 hours prior to their departure. Besides, they will also be required to take COVID-19 test on arrival and 8 days after landing.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

I really hope Covaxin approval from WHO comes true because somehow it seems like a WHO approval equates to a massive validation of the vaccine.

This article from Wire (yes, the Wire has its own agenda but at first glance I have to assume that the article was put out in good faith) has gotten me concerned a little bit. Not well informed to either offer a rebuttal...hopefully Suraj, Amber G or others who are in the know can allay concerns.

There is one more article on ToI about Covaxin's failure to deliver. The full article is behind a paywall so can't access it.

Why Covaxin hasn't delivered on its promise

Two negative articles within two days (could be a targeted campaign but again can't help but get concerned)...

BTW, I know of quite a few people including doctors who have not taken Covaxin over not having enough confidence in the vaccine and the data put out by BB (also emergency approval by GoI :) )

'Delay in WHO Nod for Covaxin Suggests Problems Exist; This Is Serious Setback to Indian Science'
The president of the All India People’s Science Network, an organisation representing the Indian scientific community, Dr Sabyasachi Chatterjee, says the World Health Organisation’s continuing delay in granting Emergency Use Authorisation (EUA) to Covaxin is a sign the WHO has problems doing so.

Although on September 30 Balram Bhargava, the head of the ICMR, said at a press conference that all Covaxin data has been given to the WHO, on that same day Karan Thapar received the following text message from a senior official of the WHO explaining the delay in granting Covaxin EUA: “There are many queries and a bit more back and forth than was expected.” So if the WHO still has “many queries” and things are going back and forth, it clearly suggests the WHO needs further clarification and details and that could also suggest the WHO has concerns, and even problems, with Covaxin’s data.

Chatterjee agreed that another indication the WHO has concerns about Covaxin’s Phase 3 data and is thus delaying granting EUA emerges when you compare how Covaxin has been treated with Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca. Six weeks after Pfizer published its Phase 3 results the WHO granted EUA. In the case of Moderna and AstraZeneca that happened roughly nine weeks after they published their Phase 3 results. In the case of Covaxin, 12 weeks have lapsed since its Phase 3 results were published on July 3 and not only has EUA not been granted, but there’s no sense of when it will be granted. Chatterjee says: “Yes, this suggests that this delay is because of something inadequate.” He said if clearance is taking much longer than it took for other vaccines that is a sign there are concerns and problems.

Going into the details and specifics of his concerns with Covaxin’s Phase 3 trial results, Chatterjee made a point of emphasising that he was relying entirely on what Bharat Biotech has published in a preprint on July 3. It’s possible – though rather unlikely – that Bharat Biotech has made more and better data available to the WHO which has so far not been released to the public through a preprint. However, Chatterjee added, given “the scientific community finds (the data) extremely inadequate” he finds it hard to believe the company has more or better details which have not been released to the public.

Chatterjee first expressed concern about how the preprint handles deaths and adverse effects during the Phase 3 trials. He said 15 deaths have been acknowledged but no explanation is given of what caused them beyond a general statement that they are not a result of vaccination. He says further details are necessary and required.

Speaking about adverse effects, he says the preprint accepts there were 39 in the vaccinated category and 60 in the unvaccinated but does not break up and differentiate between minor, semi-serious and serious adverse effects. Again, this is necessary.

However, Chatterjee’s greatest concern is that the efficacy figure given for the above 60 age group, which is the most vulnerable section of the population, is said to be 67.8% but the confidence interval bands within which it’s located stretch from 8% to 90%. He believes that’s an incredibly wide range which makes the 67.8% figure almost meaningless.

Chatterjee also agreed that there are two further Covaxin Phase 3 efficacy results where the confidence intervals are worryingly wide. The 65.2% efficacy against the Delta variant has a confidence interval stretching from 33.1% to 83%. The confidence interval for 93.4% efficacy against severe COVID-19 stretches from 57.1% to 99.8%.

“Efficacy is very important,” Chatterjee said. “If it stretches between 8 and 90% then that clearly means the 67.8 figure is not reliable.”

Asked whether these are merely technical concerns or serious concerns, Chatterjee said “they are serious concerns”. He said the scientific community finds (this data) “extremely inadequate”.

Chatterjee told The Wire that he was surprised that even three months after Covaxin’s Phase 3 trial results were announced in a preprint they have not been published in a peer-reviewed journal. He said this is a clear sign that peer-reviewed journals have questions and concerns about the preprint data. Chatterjee said this point is further underlined by the fact that six months ago, on March 8, Lancet published Covaxin’s Phase 2 interim results. Therefore, one would have expected Lancet to publish the Phase 3 results as well. So far that has not happened.

Finally, Chatterjee told The Wire that the prolonged process of Covaxin seeking EUA from the WHO but, so far, failing to get it, and the concerns about its data, are “a serious setback to Indian science”. He said developing an indigenous vaccine is important and in this instance 18 Indian entities collaborated, including the Indian Council of Medical Research. “The very fact their results (published in the preprint) have not been peer-reviewed is a setback”.

However, Chatterjee said India’s newest vaccine, Zydus Cadila, a three-dose vaccine, should not be judged “by the precedence of Covaxin”. But, he added “the background of Covaxin will always be there”.

Chatterjee also said the WHO’s delay in granting clearance to Covaxin has revived and renewed earlier questions about India’s Drugs Controller General’s EUA for Covaxin well before its third phase results were available.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr Covaxin to get WHO approval in October
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

DGCI did not give EUA to Covaxin without phase III. They gave a conditional approval, called clinical trial mode, so there can be a backup vaccine in the country. The Liar article conveniently skips mentioning that little factoid in hot pursuit of its agenda.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

The Liar also hides more facts - the early trials of the AZ vaccine (Covishield) were administered along with paracetamol. Was that the right thing to do? In wider use when given to the general population, perhaps, but not during a clinical trial, where adverse effects should be noted. But no one, definitely not The Liar, questioned that.

This is not to cast aspersions on Covishield, it clearly is effective going by the disappearance of the dreaded third wave in India. Most Indians, including half my family is vaccinated with Covishield without adverse effects. So I have nothing against it. My point is, in this unprecedented situation, all countries gave greater leeway to vaccine candidates as it was a race against time. This is true for all candidates. So why single out BBIL? Is it just the timing - India opening up vaccine exports, and BB not getting WHO approval even months later? What more data do they need - given the extensive progress of vaccination across India, where BBIL has played a small, yet significant role beyond trial numbers?

This WHO approval is another saga, given the expedited approval they gave to the Chinese glucose formulae, err vaccines, that have performed so poorly in the real world. I don't give any credibility to WHO or its processes. Not after Wuhan.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

In other news, Suraj-san's latest is up at Swarajya: September 2021: When India Moved Its Vaccination Rate To A Different League
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

arshyam wrote:In other news, Suraj-san's latest is up at Swarajya: September 2021: When India Moved Its Vaccination Rate To A Different League
Great article by Suraj! Well done as all the facts are presented in a concise manner.

Today is turning out to be a slow day with less than 3 million total vaccinations.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

arshyam wrote:In other news, Suraj-san's latest is up at Swarajya: September 2021: When India Moved Its Vaccination Rate To A Different League
Thanks! There's another article coming soon :)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Here are my thoughts on the WHO EUL and Covaxin:
* It is true major vaccines mostly had their Phase 3 before they applied for and got EUA
* Pfizer was being used in a restricted trial mode before EUA however, just like Covaxin.
* Most major vaccines have multiple Phase 3 trials. Bharat Biotech does not have such resources. See Approved vaccine summary data list

But all of this is moot now. The article fails to address the fundamental situation at present - TIMELINE. It is in widespread use. The trial was 8 months ago.

Pfizer etc got EUL way back in late 2020/early 2021 when no one knew anything, and trials really were trials. If this Covaxin controversy was in March 2021, then this makes sense. It's October now.

Covaxin has been used ~120 million times now. It's total use exceeds the use of Janssen, Sputnik and Moderna-Takeda combined. In September, it was produced more than worldwide combined Moderna output.

And these people are sitting around staring at their toes saying 'Hmm yes that trial long back, vely vely bad. Need more data'.

The PM and half the cabinet received Covaxin, along with 110 million Indians according to CoWin (plus more exported). None of them had any problem. Maybe that's the problem with Wire...
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Suraj wrote:The PM and half the cabinet received Covaxin, along with 110 million Indians according to CoWin (plus more exported). None of them had any problem. Maybe that's the problem with Wire...
Moi included... proud member of this group.

And this is what I was referring to above - a trial has what, a few tens of thousands of people? What is that against 110 million people (thanks for digging up that number) having taken it in the wild?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Not an expert in clinical trials, but the article caused me to review Pfizer data published in this article here: NEJM link

a. Effectiveness against asymptomatic infection was not measured (unlike Covaxin)
b. Confidence interval for 75+ cohort is 13.1%-100% (Vaccine was regardless approved for this cohort)
c. And CIs for any ethnicity other than White, Hispanic, Black are 22.6%-99.8%
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

Meanwhile, the numbers of first and second doses being administrated is now almost equal on a daily basis.

Again, I think that the government of India plan to administer 216 crores doses by end of December might not accomplished. But based on the trends, I think that nearly 100% of the target population would have atleast one dose administrated by then.

It would be a great change from the dark days of the second wave.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Mathematically, they cannot fully vaccinate by end of December. The eligible population is 930 million. 2x is 1860M . Sure maybe 12-17 year olds soon now that Zycov-D is available, but the main point is mathematical - 85% are getting Covishield. To complete second doses by December, the first dose needs to have been by end September.

They may have the doses necessary , they just can't administer them by year end. It's simply a matter of dose interval. Given rate of production, India will have the doses it needs before the interval mandates their use.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by a_bharat »

^^
The interval between doses won't be an issue if there is enough production. The interval can be reduced just as it was increased. If the govt keeps paying attention to the numbers, that's what they would do if the daily vaccination numbers start to drop despite availability.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

Change in vaccine interval should not be done. Let the process play itself out. If it takes by the month of March 2022 so be it.

I think that we would have covered all of eligible population with the first dose by that time.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by a_bharat »

The original interval for covishield was 6 weeks, I assume you know. No valid reason to not revert to the original duration if supply is higher than demand with increased interval.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

I remember the original interval for covidshied. However, there has to be a valid medical reason why the interval was increased to 84 days. I assume that this medical reasons still holds true. Which is why I feel that it should not be reduced.
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