Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 25 Jun 2021 10:22

Just as some suspected -- Delhi govt led by Kejriwal was artificially hiking up oxygen demand in peak Covid time to put pressure on Modi govt and pretend that Delhi people were dying because Modi was denying them oxygen. This led SC to intervene and order Central Govt. to supply more oxygen to Delhi. This led to diversion of oxygen from high caseload states to satisfy the artificial demands of Delhi Govt.

Covid-19: Delhi inflated oxygen need by 4 times during peak, says SC panel
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 826948.cms

stephen · Post by **stephen** » 25 Jun 2021 13:17

Has there been any studies done on when we might hit the vaccine hesitancy wall? As the supply of vaccines improves and everyone who wants to get vaccinated has their shots taken, there will be a point where we will have a supply and demand mismatch. Based on the few stories coming out in the media about people running away on seeing the vaccination teams or even mistaking a camera crew for a vaccination team, it seems vaccine hesitancy will hit our drive very hard at one point in the very near future.

Maria · Post by **Maria** » 25 Jun 2021 14:05

stephen wrote:Has there been any studies done on when we might hit the vaccine hesitancy wall? As the supply of vaccines improves and everyone who wants to get vaccinated has their shots taken, there will be a point where we will have a supply and demand mismatch. Based on the few stories coming out in the media about people running away on seeing the vaccination teams or even mistaking a camera crew for a vaccination team, it seems vaccine hesitancy will hit our drive very hard at one point in the very near future.

There are many who are extremely gullible among the educated, upper/middle-class as well who are falling victim to anti-vaccine movements that are running unopposed on platforms such as Telegram. These motley groups are being headed by quacks from the UK and the USA and I have seen evangelists, jehadis, communists, socialists and general anarchists peddling quarter truths about the vaccinations there. Below is a sample of what I have seen:

'The vaccines along with 5g will help track individuals physically'

When eminent personalities such as Juhi Chawla scream hoarse about 5G and with a view on the kind of people peddling anti-vax CTs, I think the GoI needs to come down hard on these groups.

I have personally reported some groups here: https://cybervolunteer.mha.gov.in/webfo ... Login.aspx

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 25 Jun 2021 14:52

Eventually you are also going to run into an appeasement wall where certain minorities would extract as much as possible before getting vaccinated.

stephen · Post by **stephen** » 25 Jun 2021 15:25

here are many who are extremely gullible among the educated, upper/middle-class as well who are falling victim to anti-vaccine movements that are running unopposed on platforms such as Telegram.
'The vaccines along with 5g will help track individuals physically'

When eminent personalities such as Juhi Chawla scream hoarse about 5G and with a view on the kind of people peddling anti-vax CTs, I think the GoI needs to come down hard on these groups.

I have personally reported some groups here: https://cybervolunteer.mha.gov.in/webfo ... Login.aspx[/quote]

These platforms for reporting such falsehood needs to increased and the Central and state govts. should run an awareness campaign about these platform. We really need to put a lid on it before it negates all the hard work of our vaccination effort.
I know of two family members, both nurses, now living in the Northeast, who have refused to take the shots due to a video circulating on Whatsapp, where there is a Nobel prize winner warning that people taking the vaccine will die within 2 years. There are messages on Whatsapp groups which have conspiracy theories that can easily rival Hollywood, and all translated into the local dilect, of how the vaccination is a plot to reduce our population to reduce global warming.
My factory workers in Delhi, mostly muslims definitely do not want to take the shots as they think its a global and BJP conspiracy.
All my cajoling and threats do not seem to work much when the fear of such falsehood is deeply entrenched in their minds.
What Himanta Biswas is doing in Assam, with regards to withholding the salary of govt. staff who have not been vaccinated is one way to go. Once we have enough vaccine, people who have not been vaccinated should be stopped from going to work, using public transport, taking trains or flying or even going out to restaurants or to the movies. Just anything to make sure that they do not come out of the house and spread the virus around till they are fully vaccinated. Or else we just let the virus take away the non vaccinated people and a few of our vaccinated ones

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 25 Jun 2021 16:51

What was muslim death percentage out of total corona deaths in India. It is not difficult to check this out (from death list). I suspect it will be higher than normal population proportion.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 25 Jun 2021 17:57

My factory workers in Delhi, mostly muslims definitely do not want to take the shots as they think its a global and BJP conspiracy.
All my cajoling and threats do not seem to work much when the fear of such falsehood is deeply entrenched in their minds.

If in minority, they won't take it till they get green signal from their controllers. Irrespective of who made it. That signal won't come till the govt starts the appeasement. Standard template across the world.

These campaigns don't run for free or out of zakat foundation funds. Every penny diverted from majority is zazija in their minds and permission from them for non believers to exist in their presence.

Minority Affairs Ministry to launch "Jaan Hai To Jahan Hai" COVID-19 vaccine awareness campaign on June 21
Read more At:
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 619153824/
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 619153824/

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 25 Jun 2021 20:42

You mean one has to appease someone to stay alive!!
That’s a new one. There are other consideration, the unvaccinated people will become spreader. But if the other 80% is vaccinated, the death dance will be more on the 20% side (unfortunately; and sorry for being so matter of fact). Where is the need to appease? People will take vaccine for their own survival irrespective of the fatwA. Most ME nations are vaccinating. No need for any appeasement

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 25 Jun 2021 20:59

Do they behave the same as ME where they are majority? Not sure where this ME comparison is coming from.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 25 Jun 2021 21:59

At 7 pm
Day 161: 31,43,72,466. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1730395
Day 160: 30,72,46,600. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1730395

Difference = 31.43 - 30.72 = 71 lakhs.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 25 Jun 2021 22:32

Meanwhile closer to home (Ohio, USA) starting today, there is big drive to get as many people vaccinated before July 4th. Many/most pharmacies are keeping longer hours and free, no hassle (doesn't matter if you have insurance or not, or resident of Ohio or just a visitor) vaccines for everyone. This is good.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Jun 2021 23:24

Uttam wrote:At 7 pm
Day 161: 31,43,72,466. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1730395
Day 160: 30,72,46,600. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1730395

Difference = 31.43 - 30.72 = 71 lakhs.

I just updated my own spreadsheet and noticed that. Astonishing. Every day between last Sat and this Fri is the best ever day of the week for vaccinations. Now the only thing left to see is whether tomorrow can outdo last Saturday's 4.18 million.

Past 7 days reads:
Sat June 19 4.18m
Sun June 20 3.5m
Mon June 21 9.02m
Tue June 22 5.28m
Wed June 23 6.93m
Thu June 24 6.28m
Fri June 25 7.13m

The trailing 7DMA has now breached 6.0 million per day. After last Friday it was 3.25m .

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 25 Jun 2021 23:46

Suraj, I had just posted a message for you on this - if you have a spreadsheet with data handy, can you publish a chart which plots the week-by-week trend of each day of the week? Basically 7 plots for each day. Wanted to explain the 9 million on Mon to folks who are claiming it was a setup

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 25 Jun 2021 23:56

Looking at the current momentum and statements from MoHFW, it seems 6 million is a sustainable number until mid-July. After mid-July, we should see close to 8-10 mill and then by mid-August greater than 10 million.

I have been keeping an eye on UP (population 22 crores). I was earlier a bit disappointed at its performance but now it seems to be picking up. UP seems to have a well-defined strategy of gradually ramping up. Started out with a goal of 0.6 million a day and is comfortably exceeding it. Its next target is 1-1.2 million a day by the first week of July.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 25 Jun 2021 23:58

hnair wrote:Suraj, I had just posted a message for you on this - if you have a spreadsheet with data handy, can you publish a chart which plots the week-by-week trend of each day of the week? Basically 7 plots for each day. Wanted to explain the 9 million on Mon to folks who are claiming it was a setup

Is this what you are looking for https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1407573826951520260

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 26 Jun 2021 00:06

Boss, I already responded to P Chidu on that. It was quite popular on Teetar: https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1407573826951520260 . Got acknowledgement from many folks - R Jaggi, Prasanna Vishy, Kanchan Gupta, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, and more.

Yes I've seen the posts about 'BeeJayPee hoarded and did special Monday'. Data shows that's basically nandi droppings. It's really easy to use the following facts:
* Every one of the past 7 days was the best ever day of week
* Every week so far in June ranks among the top 5-6 weeks for vaccination.
* This week is already the all time best week (Sun-Sat) ever, with daylight between this and the next best with one more day left.

So after posting those graphs I asked 'when exactly did someone hoard ?' Some joker posted a fancy graph of how some state (MP ?) had low vaccinations Sunday and Tuesday as 'proof', but I wish people would simply calmly deconstruct arguments without just waving hands and saying 'narratives'.
1. "BJP states hoarded vaccines and did one great day"
Answer: The days of hoarding were also the all time best performing days meaning other states did their all time best. This means on those days BJP graciously let other states look good even though they could look better, and this is somehow the BJP's fault... what ??
2. "BJP states are keeping other states from looking good by keeping vaccines from them"
Answer: Contradicts 1 - how did they do an all time best then ?

Just think through this a little more please - if someone says on an all time best performance day BJP was 'hoarding', it means it was making all other states look good, so why is the opposition complaining about looking good ?

At 6m/day we're doing way more than combined Americas, and quite a bit more than the most Europe (all of it - UK, EU and non-EU) has ever done per day. In fact we've overtaken North America in vaccines/100 people (and may overtake Europe by Aug/Sep) which contradicts the "but India has 1000 trillion people, we need to do more than them".

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 26 Jun 2021 00:13

In addition to excellent analysis by Suraj, here is one by Hindu Business Line.

As one case see, the increase was not just in the BJP-ruled states but also in the other states with a large population.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 26 Jun 2021 02:04

Andhra Pradesh bucking the trend and earning dubious distinctions I see...

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 26 Jun 2021 02:37

Suraj (and Uttam), thank you for the detailed explanation. I have indeed gone over the tweet before and have reforwarded the same. What I am talking about is a single frame line graph, with 7 plots, each showing a day of the week over say, two months. eg: like the one showing multiple countries' vaccination score over time.

Reason: a single Whatsapp-able graph showing all 7 days and how it progressed, along with a Chidu's pic at the corner with a dunce hat and a clown nose is what I had in mind.

(Btw, if it is too much of a hassle, forget it - not a big deal)

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 26 Jun 2021 07:08

Serum Institute begins production of Covovax Covid-19 vaccine at Pune plant

Serum Institute of India (SII) has started manufacturing the first batch of the Covovax Covid-19 vaccine from Friday at its Manjari facility in Pune. Covovax has been developed by US biotech company Novavax. SII has a collaboration with Novavax for manufacturing the vaccine for India and other low income countries. This is the second vaccine to be manufactured by SII after the Oxford AztraZeneca Covishield vaccine.

Adar Poonawalla, CEO, SII, who has returned to India from the UK and witnessed the first batch being manufactured, said a new milestone had been reached with the manufacturing of Covovax.

Covovax is expected to be launched in the country in September 2021. SII has committed to supply 20 crore Novavax vaccines between September and December 2021. Trials are going on in the country and have reached an advance stage. SII will also be starting Covovax trials on children from July 2021. The company will start stockpiling the Covovax vaccine in anticipation of regulatory clearance soon.

The vaccine has demonstrated 90% overall efficacy and 100% protection against moderate and severe disease Covid cases. It also has 93% efficacy against predominantly circulating variants of concern and variants of interest.

SII’s tie-up with Novavax is to manufacture one billion doses of the vaccine in 2021. Serum has got exclusive rights for the vaccine in India and non-exclusive rights during the pandemic period in all countries excluding upper-middle/high-income countries. Both partners will be having a revenue sharing arrangement. With the SII agreement, Novavax had planned to have a global production capacity of two billion doses annually. The Gates Foundation has also provided $150 million to SII for manufacturing both the Oxford-AstraZeneca and Novavax vaccine in India.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 26 Jun 2021 07:11

Is that dose of distilled water? Mumbai, Kolkata hit by fake Covid vaccine rackets; several arrested

Even as the vaccination drive in the country is picking up brisk pace, the spectre of fake vaccination camps is also rearing its head with two major cities-Mumbai and Kolkata- reporting more than 2000 victims of fake vaccination camps. While the investigating agencies have arrested a number of fraudsters involved with the fake vaccination racket, the total extent of the damage as well as the constituent of the fake vaccine vial remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, under fire over photographs of fake vaccination racket lynchpin Debanjan Deb with several TMC leaders, Rajya Sabha MP Dr Santanu Sen today said that he has filed an FIR against the fraudster.

Debanjan Deb is alleged to have played the key role behind organising three fake vaccination centres in the state capital where about 2000 people were jabbed with fake vaccines. Kolkata police has also recovered the fake vaccines and vials from the residence of Deb. A similar fake vaccination racket has come to light in Mumbai where about 2000 people were vaccinated with fake vaccines at several private vaccination camps organised around the city. Taking cognisance of the fake vaccination racket, the Bombay High Court had on Tuesday asked the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation and Mumbai Police to formulate a policy to tackle the fake vaccine racket menace. Both Mumbai as well as Kolkata police have made a number of arrests apart from collecting statements from victims of the racket.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 26 Jun 2021 07:51

Hospitals body on verge of deal with J&J for one-dose vaccine supply from July

The Association of Healthcare Providers (India), a body that represents small and medium hospitals, is close to striking a deal for procuring vaccines from Johnson & Johnson (J&J). AHPI expects the jabs to be delivered early next month and this could be the first vaccine developed by a US company that will be available in India.

J&J has offered this single-shot vaccine at $25 (approximately ₹1,875) per dose, which AHPI is negotiating.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Jun 2021 08:45

Kakkaji wrote:Serum Institute begins production of Covovax Covid-19 vaccine at Pune plant

FWIW: From several sources I have seen - Covovax data looks quite good - on par with mRNA vaccines in USA and having less side effects and may be safer with younger populations ..quite effective with variants too. All indications are that this is a good news.

Mollick.R · Post by **Mollick.R** » 27 Jun 2021 00:20

26/06/2021 (Update Till 2331 HRS)
INDIA VACCINATION Score for the day
63 Lakh, 84 Thousand

Considering Its Saturday.... the figure is great............

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Jun 2021 00:22

My latest thread on Twitter: https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1408820477376663553

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Jun 2021 01:27

PIB indicates crossing 32 crore total vaccine doses.
It appears India has crossed the US now in total vaccine doses administered.

Day 162:
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1730582

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Jun 2021 02:04

US is at 322m : https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Should overtake US on Sunday.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 27 Jun 2021 02:33

At 7 pm
Day 162: 32,11,43,649. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1730582
Day 161: 31,43,72,466. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1730395

Difference = 32.11 - 31.43 = 68 lakhs for Saturday

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Jun 2021 11:00

At 8:00AM IST on 27 Jun 2021:
32,17,60,077

So, from 7PM on 26 June to 8AM on 27 Jun, some 626,428 vaccinations administered.

sankum · Post by **sankum** » 27 Jun 2021 13:22

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hindus ... 3-amp.html

Projected vaccine availability by centre cut by 81.6 Cr to 135 Cr doses in August-December 2021 timeperiod but deemed sufficient to vaccinate all adult population. In addition 51.6 Cr doses will be available by July end 2021 for total of 186.6 Cr doses.

Projected 135 Cr doses
Covisheild 50 Cr
COVAXIN 40 Cr
Biological E 30 Cr
Sputnik 10 Cr
Zydus 5 Cr

Dropped 3 vaccines
Covovax 20 Cr
Bharat Biotech nasal 10 Cr
Gennova mRna 6 Cr

Reduced requirement of
Covisheild 25 Cr
COVAXIN 15 Cr
Sputnik 5.6 Cr

kit · Post by **kit** » 27 Jun 2021 15:56

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccin ... ry=CHN~IND

vaccinations covered, the big 2

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 27 Jun 2021 21:46

^^^.. To put the things in perspective:
The average daily rate last week in India is more than 8 times that of USA - More than both south *and* north America combined, more than entire Europe, Africa and Australia combined.
And yes, within last week alone it put more shots into arms than the whole population of Canada.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 27 Jun 2021 22:18

Kakkaji wrote:Is that dose of distilled water? Mumbai, Kolkata hit by fake Covid vaccine rackets; several arrested

Even as the vaccination drive in the country is picking up brisk pace, the spectre of fake vaccination camps is also rearing its head with two major cities-Mumbai and Kolkata- reporting more than 2000 victims of fake vaccination camps. While the investigating agencies have arrested a number of fraudsters involved with the fake vaccination racket, the total extent of the damage as well as the constituent of the fake vaccine vial remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, under fire over photographs of fake vaccination racket lynchpin Debanjan Deb with several TMC leaders, Rajya Sabha MP Dr Santanu Sen today said that he has filed an FIR against the fraudster.

Debanjan Deb is alleged to have played the key role behind organising three fake vaccination centres in the state capital where about 2000 people were jabbed with fake vaccines. Kolkata police has also recovered the fake vaccines and vials from the residence of Deb. A similar fake vaccination racket has come to light in Mumbai where about 2000 people were vaccinated with fake vaccines at several private vaccination camps organised around the city. Taking cognisance of the fake vaccination racket, the Bombay High Court had on Tuesday asked the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation and Mumbai Police to formulate a policy to tackle the fake vaccine racket menace. Both Mumbai as well as Kolkata police have made a number of arrests apart from collecting statements from victims of the racket.

Entire WB is now embroiled in this fake vax case.
And it happened with the full blessings of the TMC bigwigs which saw several vax camps in Kolkata and surrounding cases with fake vax. God knows what the recipients got in the name of vax, and in some cases it was Amic acid.
Predictably all the top TMC leaders are trying to distance themselves from this guy (Debanjan Deb), Mumtaaz Banoo is completely quiet, and police is busy destroying the evidence. This has given the state BJP a much needed weapon to corner TMC.
Also, Kolkata municipal corp election is coming.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 28 Jun 2021 00:23

There are quite a few articles about the "third wave" in many Indian news papers -- Many of them, in my opinion at from scientific perspective, quite poorly written and are inaccurate - more driven by writer's prejudices than by scientific basis.

The things are in flux - many things, as they say in physics are in "phase transition" which makes prediction quite challenging:

Considering all this, IMO an excellent analysis of third wave possibilities in Mumbai in the nice paper (link below). Scientifically it makes excellent sense that the third wave depends on the loss of immunity and immunity-escape variants..

Meanwhile Let us *all*, who are eligible to get vaccinated as soon as possible.

Thanks to Sandeep Juneja and Daksh Mittal for sharing this draft)
Link to paper: (It is a draft report but I think it is quite good to share now):
http://www.tcs.tifr.res.in/~sandeepj/av ... e%20SJ.pdf

Mollick.R · Post by **Mollick.R** » 28 Jun 2021 01:13

27/06/2021 (Update Till 2357 HRS)
INDIA VACCINATION Score for the day
17 Lakh, 5 Thousand

Sunday Effect.......would have been happy if the figure was half of the last few day's daily average (i.e was expecting 30-32 lakh on Sunday)

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 28 Jun 2021 20:14

Looks like Covaxin supply is ramping up more slowly than anticipated.

https://www.thequint.com/coronavirus/bh ... xin-report

Bharat Biotech, manufacturer of the indigenous Covaxin, has supplied 28 million doses of the jab to the Center, up till 12 June, against orders of 80 million till May end, reported Economic Times, citing an affidavit filed by the Centre in the Supreme Court.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 28 Jun 2021 20:56

Hindu is also reporting that Bharat Biotech is way behind schedule:

Centre commits to vaccinate all adults by Dec 31

Fails to meet deadline
Bharat Biotech, the maker of Covaxin, has so far failed to keep to the committed deadlines.

As on June 21, the affidavit said Bharat Biotech is yet to supply close to 18.37 lakh committed under a purchase order on March 1.

In addition, Bharat Biotech has not supplied a single dose of 5 crore Covaxin doses it promised between May and July. Stating that the total adult population in the country is approximately 93-94 crore and to vaccinate of them as planned, the affidavit signed by Manohar Agnani, Additional Secretary in the Health Ministry, said the country will require an estimated 186-188 crore vaccine doses till December 31.

Vaccines procured
Of this, the total quantity of vaccines procured till date was 35.6 crore and a delivery of another 16 crore doses – Covishield (11 crore), Covaxin (3 crore) and Sputnik V (2 crore) – is expected by July-end, the Centre said.

The affidavit also said the government has already received 31.5 lakh doses of first component of Sputnik V (meaning first dose) and 60,000 doses of the second component.

As per the government calculation, it is hopeful of getting hold of an additional 135 crore doses of Covid-19 vaccines during five months beginning August 1.

Apart from 50 crore of Covishield and 40 crore of Covaxin, it has counted in 30 crore doses of Biological E subunit vaccine, 10 crore doses of Sputnik V and 5 crore of Zydus Cadila’s DNA vaccine.

The affidavit clarified that the estimate of 186.6 crore doses does not include other vaccines that are at various stages of development as on date within the country.

The Sputnik V is also supposed to have had issues ramping up supplies of the second dose worldwide. So, they should administer only as many first doses as they have the second doses on-hand for IMHO.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 28 Jun 2021 22:02

4.8 million doses administered until 7pm today.
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1730994

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 28 Jun 2021 22:07

Today: 51,63,172

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 28 Jun 2021 22:23

When you compare Saturday and Monday PIB reports, the difference is 74,10,362 . If Sunday was 17 lakh, it follows that Monday was 57 lakh.

Numbers from the past few days suggests the 'new normal' is around 5-7 million a day, up almost 2x from the 3m a day until week 3 of June. It'll probably be a few weeks before it scales up from here, as more supplies become available.

The Covaxin rampup delays are not surprising and is very much on par with any other vaccine. Pfizer scale up took 3 months longer than expected. Even Covishield was supposed to hit 100m/month in March originally but only reached it in June. Scaling up rapidly is not screwdrivergiri.