Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Cyrano
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

As per my basic understanding, mutations that occur during viral replication are accidental and therefore random. Therefore there is a 50% chance that any given mutation is favourable for the survival of the virus, and 50% chance that its not.

Since unfavourable mutations will lead to the viruses dying too soon, not replicating as efficiently or not getting transmitted as efficiently as before, the end result in all cases is that those strains will die out over time.

Conversely, favourable mutations increase the virus' ability to survive and get transmitted. Which means as time goes by these strains of the virus will be invariably more and more potent in terms of survival, replication and/or transmission. ie natural selection.

Questions to learned gurus:
1. Is the above understanding correct? (which implies we may never be able to get rid of Covid, like we cant get rid of influenza)
2. If yes, how do we explain the natural dying out of viruses like Ebola? Is there any merit in hoping that Covid will naturally die out as well?

Thank you.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Amber G. wrote: A new variant (Lamda) from Peru is of concern - Data from Peru is being studied but this variant may turn out to be more infectious that Delta. Let us hope it does not spread too fast globally (So far affected more than 30 countries).
Analyzing data from Peru with SUTRA model, early indications are that lamda is about the same infectious as delta. (Delta variant in India resulted in roughly doubling of contact rate-- similar to graphs in Peru - and when various factors are taken into account the statistical analysis the have indicated this)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Questions to learned gurus:
1. Is the above understanding correct? (which implies we may never be able to get rid of Covid, like we cant get rid of influenza)
2. If yes, how do we explain the natural dying out of viruses like Ebola? Is there any merit in hoping that Covid will naturally die out as well?

Thank you.
FWIW to add:
Most mutations (virtually all) are "dumb" (A word used by Prof Agrawal) and soon become extinct or do not spread - the "smart ones" (those seem to invade body's immune system more effectively) become variants of interest/concern and start to become predominant if their transmissivity is high. Because mutation is random, it is almost impossible to practically predict the future variants other than in some statistical ways. Time will tell but with effective vaccines, and other measures I think we will be able to end this - but for that we have to vaccinate the whole world in a faster pace.

This is good background - HTH:
About Variants of the Virus
Najunamar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Najunamar »

Thanks Amber Gji. Similar to the previous question is it also another end point for this mutation cycle where the virus becomes so deadly it's Rho drops as a result if the available infected hosts dying out? Is this a possible explanation for Ebola variants dying out?
Raja
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

Cyrano wrote:As per my basic understanding, mutations that occur during viral replication are accidental and therefore random. Therefore there is a 50% chance that any given mutation is favourable for the survival of the virus, and 50% chance that its not.
Mutation is largely random. But, that does not mean that it is a coin toss. Most sites will lead to a silent mutation which will not have any affect. Many more will be worse for the organism and some will be beneficial for it to adjust to its environment.
ajay_hk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ajay_hk »

Suraj wrote:
Kakkaji wrote:Day 169: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1732551 = 35.05 crores

on the morning of Monday 5 July at 7am https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1732724 = 35.28 crores

Therefore doses on Sunday 4 July = 35.28cr - 35.05cr = 23 lakhs

Day 171: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1732933 = 35.71 cr

Therefore Monday July 5 = 35.71cr - 35.28cr = 43 lakh doses
Thanks for doing this. You have the procedure down perfectly now :)

Monday Day 171: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1732724
Tuesday Day 172: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1733195

36,09,56,621 - 35,71,05,461 = 38,51,160

So far this month is doing a few percent better than start of week data from weeks 1-3 of June.
Till 7PM
Tuesday Day 172: 36,09,56,621: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1733195
Wednesday Day 173: 36,45,69,414: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1733469

36,45,69,414 - 36,09,56,621 = 36,12,793
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Wednesday Day 173: 36,45,69,414: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1733469
Thursday Day 174: 36,85,76,352: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1733862

36,85,76,352 - 36,45,69,414 = 40,06,938

July has settled into a strong rhythm, with almost every day well north of 3.5m . The week so far since Monday is 4.2m, 3.8m, 3.6m, 4.0m . Trailing 7DMA is at 4.15m right now.

Both May and June saw a similar trend - smooth performance in weeks 1-3 with a stronger week 4.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Suraj wrote:Wednesday Day 173: 36,45,69,414: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1733469
Thursday Day 174: 36,85,76,352: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1733862

36,85,76,352 - 36,45,69,414 = 40,06,938

July has settled into a strong rhythm, with almost every day well north of 3.5m . The week so far since Monday is 4.2m, 3.8m, 3.6m, 4.0m . Trailing 7DMA is at 4.15m right now.

Both May and June saw a similar trend - smooth performance in weeks 1-3 with a stronger week 4.
great news.

So every 2.5 days, we are covering one crore.

If we can get it to 2 days in another couple of weeks, we will be doing good.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Some additional numbers:
July 1-8: 36 million doses (~Canada population)
Weekly performance: ~26-29 million (>Australia population)
Daily performance: ~4.2 million average (~Singapore adult population - and Singapore won't get done until August. 2 days of Indian supply can cover them entirely)

Maintaining the current rate will result in 140 million doses for the month. It requires a production level for the month of >160m, to account for wastage and supply pipeline. This is one reason why I think the official estimate of 12 cr (120m) is a baseline - that's what they're confident enough to put a number on, with extra being likely but not something to immediately assert.

By end of this week, India will hit 300 million people with at least one dose - currently at 296 million as of end of Wednesday. Currently we have the following regions by people with at least 1 dose:
Europe: 323 million
India: 296 million
North America: 258 million
EU: 235 million
United States: 182 million

We may manage to overtake Europe by month end too.
saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Pfizer is asking for an emergency authorization for THIRD booster dose for its vaccine as it believes its vaccine efficacy is waning.
Deans
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

saip wrote:Pfizer is asking for an emergency authorization for THIRD booster dose for its vaccine as it believes its vaccine efficacy is waning.
Trying to get business in India, before the majority of our citizens get vaccinated. Expect paid journos /IMA etc pushing for Pfizer.
vera_k
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

An experiment to keep an eye on.

England's Covid-19 gamble as society reopens despite skyrocketing cases
Sajid Javid, the new lockdown-skeptic health secretary, said he is prepared to let cases hit 100,000 a day because the U.K.'s vaccination rollout has weakened the link between cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by rsingh »

:(( Bismilah here I thought I am very chalak Got back to starting point. Neve Pfizer. I demand GOI send indian vaccine for diaspora.
Tanaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

vera_k wrote:An experiment to keep an eye on.

England's Covid-19 gamble as society reopens despite skyrocketing cases
Sajid Javid, the new lockdown-skeptic health secretary, said he is prepared to let cases hit 100,000 a day because the U.K.'s vaccination rollout has weakened the link between cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
This is not a gamble and the basis is the whole foundation of getting vaccinated. If vaccines do not prevent serious hospitalisation then there is no point in vaccination.

I hope it works for them.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

The article links to a letter laying out why its a gamble. The two main reasons are -

a. Low vaccination coverage among the young. This might be due to a local policy to hold back vaccinations from young people &
b. Possibility of more variants emerging as the virus circulates though the population.

Mass infection is not an option
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Deans wrote:
saip wrote:Pfizer is asking for an emergency authorization for THIRD booster dose for its vaccine as it believes its vaccine efficacy is waning.
Trying to get business in India, before the majority of our citizens get vaccinated. Expect paid journos /IMA etc pushing for Pfizer.
Deans Sahib:

I don't think this Pfizer move for the third dose is India-related at all. If anything, the third dose will make the already expensive Pfizer vaccine to be 50% more expensive for India. GOI has already said it cannot afford to import high-priced foreign vaccines for its mass vaccination program. The third dose will make it even more unaffordable for private purchase also. IMHO, not even 1% of India's population will be able/ willing to pay Pfizer's prices. Its storage requirements at -70 degrees will also keep it out of India's mass market.

Among the American vaccines, I think only J&J and Novavax make sense for India.

I think Pfizer's move for third dose is aimed more at getting the GOTUS and American Health Insurance Companies to buy one more dose of its vaccine for the tens of millions of US population that has had 2 doses of Pfizer vaccine. BTW, I am one of them and, because I am immune-compromised, I wouldn't mind getting the third dose (even if I have to pay for it out of my own pocket) if Pfizer can prove to the FDA that the third dose will boost my immunity to Covid significantly.

JMHO
SRajesh
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SRajesh »

Just heard on WION
Lead scientist of SINOVAC vaccine dies of COVID :eek: :eek:
Speaking of Karma!!! :rotfl:
saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

For once, FDA and CDC has pushed back regarding Pfizer's third dose. The company should be asked to provide the third dose FREE.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

For members from TN:

Sputnik V vaccination drive from July 12 in Tamil Nadu
The city-based AGs Health Care, an outpatient centre to be approved by the Tamil Nadu government as a COVID-19 vaccination centre, is launching a Sputnik V vaccination drive from July 12.

The centre would vaccinate frontline workers (doctors, health care workers, mediapersons and police personnel), senior citizens, transgenders, specially challenged individuals, and people with co-morbidities, said director of AGs Health Care Dr Adityan Guhan said in a release on Friday.

The slot for the vaccination needs to be booked through the CO-Win portal, he said.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Headline is misleading. Most of this story is about Zydus Cadilla:

Working actively with Moderna to see how its Covid vaccine can be made available in India: Govt
Responding to a question at a press briefing, NITI Aayog member (Health) Dr V K Paul said, "Moderna vaccine is under emergency use authorisation. The government is working actively with the manufacturers to see how to make this vaccine available in the country, importing it into the country, those efforts are on the process that has to be gone through is being actively pursued."

In response to another question on the vaccine of drug firm Zydus Cadila, Paul said the company had submitted its third phase trial results to the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) last week.

"Zydus Cadila has submitted its phase-3 trial results to the DCGI last week and scientific evidence is being probed and the process of exchange of information is actively going on," he said.

In this trial, Paul said children were also included and "we are hoping that after all this data gets evaluated through scientific process then recommendations will be followed, and if there is enough evidence to support vaccination by this vaccine for children between 12-18 years then that will also be provided at that time depending upon the robustness of the data and scientific evidence".


"We should wait for that process to be over and for a decision to be made by the scientific system in the DCGI," he said.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

saip wrote:For once, FDA and CDC has pushed back regarding Pfizer's third dose. The company should be asked to provide the third dose FREE.
As I said earlier, I am willing to pay for the third dose out of my own pocket, if Pfizer can prove to the FDA and CDC that my antibodies will be boosted 5-6 times by the third dose.

Pfizer is also claiming that the immunity from its earlier two doses wanes significantly after 6 months. That is scary.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Gap between Sputnik V COVID-19 shots can be up to 180 days - Russia's RDIF
The gap between the two shots of the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine can be extended up to 180 days and it will remain effective, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) said on Friday.

The RDIF official quoted Gamaleya trials as showing longer gaps had secured a better immune response, but provided no further details of the trials. The official issued the statement after a Reuters request for comment, and denied it was related in any way to Russian deliveries of Sputnik V.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Two cases of Kappa variant of COVID-19 detected in Uttar Pradesh
Two cases of Kappa variant of COVID-19 have been detected in Uttar Pradesh, according to an official statement issued on Friday.

Genome sequencing of 109 samples was done at King George's medical college in Lucknow in the past few days.

The Delta Plus variant of COVID-19 was found in 107 samples, while the Kappa variant was found in two samples, the statement issued after Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's routine review meeting said.

"Both the variants are not new for the state. The facility of genome sequencing is being increased in the state," it added.

At present, the daily positivity rate in the state is 0.04 per cent.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pgbhat »

https://twitter.com/NEJM/status/1412882866971635713
In a study involving 10.2 million participants in Chile, the effectiveness of an inactivated, China-developed #SARSCoV2 vaccine was estimated. Effectiveness was 65.9% for infection, 87.5% for hospitalization, 90.3% for ICU admission, and 86.3% for death.
The graph is Shanghai Statistics.
srin
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by srin »

vera_k wrote:An experiment to keep an eye on.

England's Covid-19 gamble as society reopens despite skyrocketing cases
Sajid Javid, the new lockdown-skeptic health secretary, said he is prepared to let cases hit 100,000 a day because the U.K.'s vaccination rollout has weakened the link between cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

I was watching Wimbledon on TV and nobody is wearing masks. Feels insane ...
vimal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vimal »

COVID infections imperil Indonesia’s vaccinated health workers, and hospitals
About 95% health workers have been fully vaccinated, overwhelmingly with China’s Sinovac, said the Indonesian Hospitals Association (IHA).

But, according to independent data group Lapor COVID-19, 131 healthcare workers, mostly vaccinated with the Sinovac shot, have died since June, including 50 in July.

An Indonesian health ministry spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Covid-19: In Mumbai, no vaccination on Saturday too due to dose shortage
The COVID-19 vaccination drive will remain suspended at civic and government-run centres in Mumbai on Saturday due to a shortage of doses and no inoculation will take place on Sunday on account of weekly off of staffers, the BMC said on Friday.

On Friday, too, the drive remained suspended in BMC and Maharashtra government-run centres in the metropolis due paucity of doses.

In the statement, the civic body said the vaccination drive will resume once it receives a fresh stock of vaccines.

According to the BMC, a total of 59,29,190 citizens have been inoculated against coronavirus in the metropolis till Wednesday (July 7). Of these, 12,47,410 beneficiaries have received their second dose as well.

Presently, Mumbai has 401 active COVID-19 vaccination centres – 283 of the BMC, 20 of the state government and 98 private facilities.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

The current vaccination availability is n ot good.

Covid resurgence worry rising, with cases up, vaccination down
Kerala, Maharashtra cause for concern; States report shortage of jabs even as more variants surface

Smoke signals of trouble are visible from different parts of the country, in the increasing Covid-19 cases, reduced pace of vaccination and the shortfall in vaccine supplies. This, even as cases of the Zika virus gets reported from Kerala, and the SARS-CoV-2 Kappa variant is reported in Uttar Pradesh.

Expressing concern that more than half the country’s daily Covid cases were from Kerala and Maharashtra, Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary with the Health Ministry, said, “Of the total daily Covid cases, 21 per cent are from Maharashtra and 32 per cent from Kerala. This is a cause of concern that in the last three days cases have increased in Maharashtra. Similarly, in Kerala the cases had plunged to 8,000 on July 3 but post that there is an increase to 14,000-15,000 on a daily basis.” The Centre, he said, was coordinating with the two States on implementing containment measures.

Vaccination slows
India reported 43,393 Covid cases in the 24 hours ended Friday morning with 911 deaths. The concerns over rising cases, including an impending third wave, rise even as the country’s pace of vaccination hovers at a low 29.07 lakh jabs a day, just a third of the. of one crore shots daily. “Out-of-stock” Mumbai halted vaccination as did Gujarat on Friday, with zero doses administered in three days.

Private hospital representatives pointed out that the Centre’s new procurement formula for them was also causing the squeeze in supplies. There is a cap on how much they can source from the State. Serum Institute was on track with supplies, producing over 90 million doses a month, a source said, adding that Bharat Biotech was reportedly behind schedule.

On concerns whether adequate supplies of both doses (involving different components) of Russia’s SuptniK V vaccine were available in India, Dr Reddy's Laboratories (the brand custodian of Sputnik V in India) said: ``Our commitment is to ensure supplies of Component 2 to all hospitals to which we have supplied Component 1 in equal quantity and on time.''

Hari Prasad, President, Apollo Hospital Group, said they were not administering the first dose unless the second was assured. On the availability of the other vaccines, he said, ``Covishield and Covaxin supplies are better as both are manufactured in India and have been available for a longer time than Sputnik.''


Variant worries
The Lambda variant, first detected in Peru, has not been reported in India, said VK Paul, Member-Health, NITI Aayog. On the Kappa variant, Paul said that it was similar to the Delta and of less intensity. “While the Kappa variant is B 1.167.1, the Delta variant is B 1.167.2. So, the Delta variant is similar to the Kappa variant. This variant has been overwhelmed by the Delta variant. But we are watchful,” Paul added.
The article discusses vaccine shortages in different states.
Last edited by Kakkaji on 10 Jul 2021 03:29, edited 1 time in total.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Friday Day 175: 37,19,25,602: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1734323
Thursday Day 174: 36,85,76,352: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1733862

37,19,25,602 - 36,85,76,352 = 34,49,250

The numbers are low so far this week. :(
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

With Covishield 'running out' and Covaxin left for a day, Punjab wants enhanced supplies
CHANDIGARH: With Punjab running out of coronavirus vaccine Covishield and left with only one day's stock of Covaxin, Chief Minister Amarinder Singh Friday reiterated the need for enhanced supplies from the Centre, his office said Friday.

The increase in supplies was critical also because the state on Friday lifted weekend and night curfews and allowed reopening of colleges, cinema halls, malls, restaurants, bars and gyms to those who have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine.

"With the state running out of Covishield & left with only one day's stock of Covaxin, CM @Capt_Amarinder Singh again stressed the need for increase in vaccine supplies from Centre," the Chief Minister's Office tweeted.

Pointing out that Punjab has already vaccinated nearly 83 lakh eligible people (approximately 27 per cent of population) -- 70 lakh first doses, 13 lakh second -- the Chief Minister said the stock was being utilised in the state without any wastage.

Punjab was able to utilise more than six lakh doses in a single day when adequate supply was received, he noted at the Covid review meeting.

Chief Secretary Vini Mahajan told the meeting that the administration was following up with the Centre for more doses.
Something seems to have gone wrong with the earlier projected production schedule of vaccines in India. Things are not looking good right now. The momentum gained in the first week of the current phase after June 21 has been lost.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Not really, with 21.4m between Sunday and Friday, this week (July Wk 2) still on track to be one of the top 3 or top 4 weeks to date. If May and June are a trend, weeks 3 and 4 are likely to be better performers. Month of July to date is 40 million doses.

June 4th week was trending at a rate of 225 million doses/month. That's way higher than actual supply. Current rate in the first 2 weeks of July are well aligned to the known production likelihood for July.

Quoting previous public availability data for July:
Image
Punjab for e.g should get 2.8M doses.

Let's look at two recent summary figures:
July 9th morning report
June 30th morning report
From this, Punjab has done over 1m already this month, having received and done 36% of its total dose availability this month. They should expect a deceleration. Other states have received proportionately less than their July quota to date, e.g. 25% of quota received by UP.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

There will be a lecture on Sutra by Prof. Manindra Agrawal along with many other interesting lectures by world renowned mathematicians. The event is running for this coming week -- a symposium on Number Theory in honor of Prof. M. V. Subbarao, in his centenary year. For details please see my post in Math dhaga:
viewtopic.php?p=2505720#p2505720
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Saturday Day 176: 37,57,10,173: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1734470
Friday Day 175: 37,19,25,602: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1734323

37,57,10,173 - 37,19,25,602 = 37,84,571
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

It's so easy to get vaccinated. Viruses don't mutate if they can't replicate, and you can prevent them from replicating by vaccinating enough people so that the virus has nowhere to go,
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

srin wrote:

I was watching Wimbledon on TV and nobody is wearing masks. Feels insane ...
Forget Wimbledon, the Terroristanis played UQ at Lords at a capacity crowd and no one was wearing masks either. Lords capacity is much more than Wimbledon…
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

vimal wrote:COVID infections imperil Indonesia’s vaccinated health workers, and hospitals
About 95% health workers have been fully vaccinated, overwhelmingly with China’s Sinovac, said the Indonesian Hospitals Association (IHA).

But, according to independent data group Lapor COVID-19, 131 healthcare workers, mostly vaccinated with the Sinovac shot, have died since June, including 50 in July.

An Indonesian health ministry spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-ne ... 57340.html
Indonesia pleads world for O2
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

https://www.indiaspend.com/covid-19/dea ... oll-760219

Worrying data on excess deaths in India. I have so far not given credence to such reports, as the sample size is either too small, or there are
reasons (e.g ex gratia payment if there is a death certificate saying died of covid), or the usual suspects in the Media have hysterical stories.
However, the HMIS covers 200,000 locations and records about a third of deaths, in a fairly timely way.
HMIS data (the only accurate indicator in rural areas) can be used in conjunction with the Civil registration system (more reliable in the south) which has a time lag, but seems to reinforce HMIS data.
https://www.indiaspend.com/covid-19/dea ... mic-757701
Last edited by Deans on 11 Jul 2021 16:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sankum »

Take extra deaths over a period of say 4 years 2020 to 2024 till situation normalises. Such small period selective will be skewed for people who were dying in next few months/years suddenly died probably of covid.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

The excess deaths are not directly related to covid, but indirectly related. Many people, including family I have, did not get timely medical care in hospital or treatments due to fear of covid or hospitals being full. Another factor which should reduce excess deaths are that during lockdown periods, accidental deaths from road accidents should have decreased. India has over 100,000 road accident deaths/year. We will have a better idea about a year from now from the same National Health Mission portal.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Average daily vaccinations drop on supply, hesitancy issues
NEW DELHI: There is a dip in average daily vaccination against Covid-19 which fell to 37.2 lakh doses in the week starting June 21 and nearly 42 lakh doses in the following week (June 28-July 04), CoWin data shows.

While the decline in vaccination has raised concerns, the government is expecting to maintain a daily average of 40-45 lakh doses in July with an estimated supply of at least 12 crore doses this month, an official source said. According to the source, the slowdown in vaccination is primarily because of some disruptions at Bharat Biotech’s Bengaluru plant which resulted in delay in supply of some batches of Covaxin that were expected in the beginning of this month.

“It is a new facility with large scale fermentation plant. The trial batches were disrupted during standardisation process and therefore, the supply of Covaxin was less than expected. That has been sorted out now,”
the official said. CoWin data shows the decline is mainly driven by less number of people initiating first dose and a lower uptake in rural areas.

In urban areas, the daily doses varied from 8.2 lakh-31.8 lakh doses during June 25-30, whereas during July 1-9, around 7.6 lakh -27.8 lakh doses were given.

“The combination of progressive reopening and declining vaccination numbers is dangerous. We are not really protected against the current delta variant until we fully vaccinate 60-70% of the population by December. For that we need to administer 90 lakh to 1 crore doses per day. And that needs vaccine stocks which we seem to be running short on. If we can’t vaccinate enough, I’m afraid we need to be obsessed about Covid-appropriate behavior and re-think relaxing restrictions,” says Dr Arvinder Soin, chairman, Medanta Liver Transplant Institute.

However, the average daily vaccination still remained above the pre-June 21 level and officials said pace of vaccination is likely to pick up again in the following weeks.
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