Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Manas
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manas »

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile "Our efforts to understand the origins of this pandemic will not rest," says
US President Biden in a statement after receiving classified intelligence review of COVID19 origins.
Statement by President Joe Biden on the Investigation into the Origins of COVID-⁠19

Here is - unclassified version from ODNI
*** UNCLASSIFIED ***
Key Takeaways:

 One IC element assesses with moderate confidence that the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 most likely was the result of a laboratory-associated incident, probably involving experimentation, animal handling, or sampling by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. These analysts give weight to the inherently risky nature of work on coronaviruses.
 Analysts at three IC elements remain unable to coalesce around either explanation without additional information, with some analysts favoring natural origin, others a laboratory origin, and some seeing the hypotheses as equally likely.
Any time you have these types of "assessments" (like we had with the Trump "russia collusion" narrative i.e. "all 17 intelligence agencies have a consensus on XYZ") then it is fair, easy to conclude that this is a whitewash, narrative setting exercise to meet political objectives of the regime in D.C. For one, other than the CIA, NSA and NRO/GIA very few of the other "17 agencies" of the IC have any business collecting foreign intelligence related to either "Russia collusion of a POTUS candidate" or "origins of a virus". Among the IC - we have agencies like the U.S. Coast Guard, DEA etc who have no business, charter, mandate meddling in such collection and running sources or leveraging methods.

The only one I would trust (in fact its assessment should be declassified so the entire world can come to their own conclusion) is the the one IC element that has "moderate confidence" that it came from a lab leak. I guess it is either the CIA or the NSA the only two agencies that probably have the sources and methods & might have meaningful intelligence in this case to make a determination. Most of the other "IC element" reference is just flatulent noise.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Hari Seldon wrote:Naive pooch: Are he above figs counting doses or people (latter need 2 doses per person). Since it is shipments data, I'd say the former.

Still far away from 3/4th of popn (excluding <18 y.o) if people are the metric though substantial protection is recorded even for partially vaxed folks.

Only.
Total number of vaccine doses `621 Million
Total number of people with at least 1 dose: 479 Million (About 50% of adults > 18)
Total number of people with 2 doses: 142 Million (About 15% of adults)
We are striving for 75% for both shots about 800 million more shots (80 days ? :) ) more to go -- 1200 Millions more to go for higher numbers etc... (BTW in few states and for health-care workers etc full vaccinated people are in high percentage..For example for HCW and FLW about 80+% are fully vaccinated).

Adding 12 Years + (or children etc) will add more to the total numbers... but if we can get to 75% or the adults we could be fairly safe..
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Day 225 - 63,00,67,629. https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1749990 Posted On: 28 AUG 2021 7:59PM

Day 224 - 62,09,43,580 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1749678 Posted On: 27 AUG 2021 7:50PM

Total. - 91,24,049
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

I posted this On July 15 - with the caption "save this post" (see below):

One of the assumption was vaccination 6M/day in August - The current value is about 6.03 Million /Day (for 27 days)!
Not bad. (Hope 9M/day for September comes out correct - but even if falls below target the probability of the third wave as a ripple still holds - provided, of course, no new variant and no crazy behaviour on peoples part)

The values of infections given by the model (Green curve) are *very* close to the actual values..
(The values for individual states (including Kerala and Maharashtra) also fits nicely if one looks at the graphs for those individual states)


Amber G. wrote:Okay - Here is "Third wave scenario"
(Let us see how good this prediction is :) )
(Save this post)
(All credit to SUTRA Team - many/most graphs are from their published sites and if you share - please acknowledge it)
(Historic - check out my posts in brf - last year's prediction (done pre-sutra era) were quite accurate - in fact in graphs I posted last year in fall the prediction went up to end of February and were quite in agreement with actual data.

All parameters had a change in March/April - especially beta... delta variant and the wave which we never thought will come to India was extremely devastating.

But here we are again - see how accurate we are!

Hopefully a small ripple in October - which may become smaller if people only act sensibly.

Image

We assume:

Vaccine rates: 5M/day Ave in July (We need another in 80M by the end of this month)
6M/day average in August.
9M/day in September, October and November.

We also assume: (Conservatively)

30% people gets immunity after one month after the first dose.
60% people gets immunity after one month after the second dose.
40% of the people who got covid before the second wave lose their immunity after 3 months - rest are immune.
20% of the people who got covid after the second wave (delta) lose their immunity after 3 months
beta (which is around .25 now but was worse about 0.4 in beginning of the second wave) becomes 0.4 around the August end but does NOT go higher. (NO NEW Variant)


Then we have "optimistic" - green curve - A ripple.

If vaccine rates are not that high or say effectiveness falls to 25% (one shot) and 50% (two shots) from 30/60.
We have "Intermediate scenario - still virtually same as optimistic one.

BUT if we get a 25% more transmissive variant then Delta - we get the pessimistic purple curve- The peak is about as high as the second wave. ( Delta+ and Lamda - from the data may be more dangerous but they are similar to Delta in term of transitiveness).

---
The BIGGEST Impact, IMO one can make is use of *masks* -- it can *really* bring down the peak.
Vaccinations, while extremely important - need to be kept above 5-6 M/day in next month or two and then go up to 9-10 M/day but higher vaccine rates alone, if crowds etc are not managed may not be the answer. (Many reasons - it takes a few months for vaccine to take effect and we have to stop the spread via more effective way).

If you want to do your own calculations - here are the (current) parameters for India..:)..
beta = 0.25 , eta=.0014, epsilon = .033, gamma = .1, rho = 90%,
For comparison: The current Model prediction calculated from current parameter values:
Image
jamwal
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by jamwal »

I got my 2nd dose in a govt run center. First one was in expensive private hospital where I had to wait in line at two counters, fill up long paper forms and no one caring about maintaining distance. Then the medical workers provided no information about anything. Just, "sit here, show your arm and wait for 30 minutes in a crowded lobby."

The govt one had 2 counters too, run by Civil Defence workers. The nurses explained the details and precautions and whole process took no more than 20 minutes and no paper work compared to 90+ in private hospital. Admittedly, there was a bit of rush at the hospital, but seems like govt can do a few jobs well. Wouldn't have expected it earlier.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Okay - Here is the latest from SUTRA Team. (Hopefully main-stream media will cover this).

Update: First, No new variant has arrived till now. (The earlier graph posted in brf - in July - one scenario assumed the arrival by now). So the graph is calibrated so that in the 'variant' scenario the 50% move variant arrives in September)
Second: Beta - assumption was it will be around 0.4 but at present it is higher (0.5) - People are not masking as much as we thought. (Kerala numbers are high). So in status quo portion we are assuming beta = 0.5 and in new bad variant it goes to .75 (roughly speaking R0 becomes 7.5).

Assumptions: Vaccinations: We had 160+ Million in August and will have 200 Million in September, October etc.

The graphs are drawn with two values of epsilon (1/33 and 1/37 - we do know the value is something in the middle).
(these values implies ~6% monthly and ~10% loss of antibodies respectively per month.
Updated with *latest* research about the loss of immunity after natural or vaccines and conservative values for vaccine effectiveness. We do assume (as data strongly indicates) that viral load shading is about 50% for vaccinated people.

Here is the graph:
Image

It is a ripple unless the epsilon is 1/33 *and* the bad variant with R0 = 7.5 appears - then we may get 100K per day.
(credit: SUTRA team)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

jamwal wrote:I got my 2nd dose in a govt run center. First one was in expensive private hospital where I had to wait in line at two counters, fill up long paper forms and no one caring about maintaining distance. Then the medical workers provided no information about anything. Just, "sit here, show your arm and wait for 30 minutes in a crowded lobby."

The govt one had 2 counters too, run by Civil Defence workers. The nurses explained the details and precautions and whole process took no more than 20 minutes and no paper work compared to 90+ in private hospital. Admittedly, there was a bit of rush at the hospital, but seems like govt can do a few jobs well. Wouldn't have expected it earlier.
Based on my own experience where I had one jab at a public health centre and another at a private hospital. Both were quite good. My guess is that it could vary from one hospital to the other.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by a_bharat »

Looks like vaccination count today will be in 11-12M range.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Cowin Dashboard is showing:
12.87 Million Jabs until now.
About 186 Millions in August (Ave 6M/day)
More than 652 Million Jabs.
More than 503Million with at least one shot.
More than 150 Million with both shots!
Last edited by Amber G. on 31 Aug 2021 23:43, edited 1 time in total.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

It's been a pretty incredible month vaccinationwise, indeed.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1750863 65,12,14,767 31 AUG 2021 8:13PM
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1750544 63,99,01,822 30 AUG 2021 7:57PM

11,31,2945
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by hnair »

Suraj, do you have a post or tweet about breakup of vaccine manufacturing numbers by manufacturer? Only clear number available in articles is the 150 mill per month of SII.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

after getting raped by the taliban, the acrid smell of burning pubicum capillum now begins to rise in certain woke amriki and Indian circles

and an overwhelming percentage of the VAXs used are Serum Institute's Covishield and Bharat Biotech's Covaxin, both produced in India, which is causing even more of that acrid smell because of more burning of pubicum capillum


Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

Image
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

hnair wrote:Suraj, do you have a post or tweet about breakup of vaccine manufacturing numbers by manufacturer? Only clear number available in articles is the 150 mill per month of SII.
Not really. Now that supply is so good, there's less pressure on the mfgers to report these, but anecdotally, current production capability is at least 200m/month . This is because we just did 184 million (probably 185m by end of day) and on top of that the remaining pipeline is 54 million. At the end of the prior month it was ~24 million, so that's around 220 million across consumption and addition to pipeline.

SII produced over 150 million in August and Covaxin the rest. SII has estimated 200m for September. Covaxin around 70m, plus the carryover from August, which leads to potentially 250-275 million vaccinations in September. If Corbevax (Biological-E) at risk production is cleared once their Phase 3 completes and they get EUA, then who knows, we could see somewhere near 300 million in Sept.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

Bharat Biotech estimates 3 Crore doses to be supplied in September.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbctv ... 71.htm/amp
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

PIB numbers are beginning to look mind-numbingly large now.

Aug 31 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1750863 65,12,14,767
Sep 01 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1751205 66,17,38,647

Day on day: 1,05,23,880

Another boring 10 million day folks, nothing to see here. It's only been THREE 10M days in the past 7 now - Aug 27, Aug 31 and now Sep 1.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

Suraj wrote:PIB numbers are beginning to look mind-numbingly large now.

Aug 31 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1750863 65,12,14,767
Sep 01 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1751205 66,17,38,647

Day on day: 1,05,23,880

Another boring 10 million day folks, nothing to see here. It's only been THREE 10M days in the past 7 now - Aug 27, Aug 31 and now Sep 1.
It's hardly boring and really an accomplishment that benefits the whole of humanity by preventing further variants from occurring. By the end of November, more than likely, India will vaccinate over 1 billion people. I predict next year that Indian pharma companies will vaccinate billions across the globe.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ashishvikas »

BharatBiotech aims to deliver 3.5 crore #Covaxin doses in September. @TimsyJaipuria speaks with Krishna Ella, Founder & Chairman, @BharatBiotech on covaxin production plans.


https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status ... 40481?s=19
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

Suraj wrote:

Snip....


Another boring 10 million day folks, nothing to see here. It's only been THREE 10M days in the past 7 now - Aug 27, Aug 31 and now Sep 1.
Many many more to come.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

Suraj, well done for another excellent article.

https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/how-augus ... ion-effort
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

Mort Walker wrote:... I predict next year that Indian pharma companies will vaccinate billions across the globe.
Hear, hear!

May your prediction come true early on (March 2022) itself in the coming year.

And may our pharma industry buoyed by this confidence, and the monies earned, put more budget into R&D to also help the world combat other diseases and infections.

I pray that our current GoI increases and structures it's support to the private pharma sector so that we can see a sort of start-up boom both in medicine manufacturing as well as medical tourism sector. There is great potential not just to earn very valuable foreign exchange but also to rise again and re-claim our ancient legacy as the Global 'Healer' Power.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Pratyush wrote:Suraj, well done for another excellent article.

https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/how-augus ... ion-effort
Thanks :) I thought I’d posted it here but I forgot.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Another good day on Thursday.

Sep 01 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1751205 66,17,38,647
Sep 02 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1751535 66,98,35,708

Day on day: 80,97,061

Under normal circumstance, an over 8 million day would be amazing, but we have been spoiled recently.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

Second dose demand should be picking up from this month we may have to re-visit the gap if supplies are scaling up at such a rapid pace.

Great going, btw rNdtv and other great sikular media are boycotting the news
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

This is a positive review of the ZyCoV-D vaccine from Nature.

India’s DNA COVID vaccine is a world first – more are coming
Although ZyCoV-D’s efficacy seems to be lower than the 90% or higher achieved by some mRNA vaccines, the figures are not comparable, says Jameel. The ZyCoV-D trials in India earlier this year were conducted while the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was the dominant variant in circulation, whereas earlier mRNA vaccine trials were conducted when less transmissible variants were circulating. “The efficacy is essentially against the Delta variant, so that is pretty good,” he says.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/long-r ... ar-pradesh
Long Read: The Stories Behind Covid-19 Vaccination Success In Rural Uttar Pradesh
A population larger than almost all the countries of the world and a healthcare infrastructure that is barely adequate for it — these were two of the biggest challenges Uttar Pradesh had to face in its vaccination drive.

Contrary to what many would have hoped for or wished for, India’s vaccination drive has been an unprecedented success with more than 60 crore doses administered until the second day of September.

The magnificence of the success lies in the magnitude of the scale, given the geographical challenges, the socio-economic realities on the ground, and more importantly, the unexplainable hesitancy amongst the citizens the government, both at the Centre and states, were required to address during the drive.
Shivesh Pandey, another resident of Uttar Pradesh, elaborated on the rampant vaccine fear in his conversation with Swarajya. In some places, people were refusing to come out of their homes, and there were also rumours of people running from the villages to escape the vaccine in the earlier weeks. However, all that changed as primary teachers and anganwadi workers were engaged to spread awareness across the villages, more than 90,000 of them.

Narrating his experience from the ground, Pandey elaborated on the importance of the Prime Minister and Chief Minister leading from the front. "When people, who do not understand the disease, its origins or consequences, witness the PM or the CM taking the jab, it instills some confidence in them."
Thus, setting up a vaccination site, one for every 20 villages, on an average, the state government overcame a number of challenges in one go. Further, the Aadhaar-based documentation process carried out by the primary teachers and other anganwadi workers aided the follow-up process for registration, and will also be helpful in the future for the administration of the second dose, and if needed, a booster dose.

The success of the Yogi Adityanath government can be imagined as an equivalent to vaccinating the entire country of Thailand or the United Kingdom or Italy or Spain 1.5 times or Canada twice or Australia thrice. Thus, it turns out, the monk in the saffron suit has attained success many in the Western world can only dream of replicating.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vivek K »

Great post - just as much as the News media called out the administration during the worst period, they must congratulate them for sticking to the job and leading from the front. If you leave China's fake news (they let this weapon loose after vaccinating their populace), India is Numero Uno in vaccinations! We need to get used to being #1 and give up that shitty piece about "entering an elite club of six nations..."!

Congratulations to the administration - but keep doing what you're doing.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

** Sep 00 =Aug 31 **
Sep 00 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1750863 651,214,767
Sep 01 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1751205 661,738,647 (Delta = 10.5M)
Sep 02 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1751535 669,835,708 (Delta = 8.1 M)
Sep 03 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1751821 676,500,301 (Delta = 6.7 M)
Last edited by Amber G. on 03 Sep 2021 22:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Sep 02 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1751535 66,98,35,708
Sep 03 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1751821 67,65,00,301

Day on day: 66,64,593

Solid numbers. Cumulative total over first six days of week is 46.5 million. Almost certain to beat the 49.2 million in the prior week (the all time best to date) and become the first ever week with >50 million. Needs just 4.5 million on Sat to get there.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

^^^Don’t you mean >3.5 million to exceed 50 million for the week? I think that will easily happen as supply is there and infrastructure.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Going to look at this post on Oct 1.. or end of this months to see how well this prediction did. :).
When all is said and done:
India's about
≈ 75% of adult population ~ ≈700 Million with at least one dose.
≈ 25 % of adult population - ≈ 250 Million fully vaccinated.


(Total shots delivered will be about 100% of adult population -- about 900 - 950 M )


Beta (Contact parameter) will remain around 0.5 or become better - (Not too bad CAA type protests, new variant, people acting sensibly)
Sutra and other models not talking about the third or fourth wave but talking about Reaching herd immunity level by 15th November etc.
By Dec 31st - India is ready to ship vaccines to Vietnam and rest of the world.

(See:
We're grateful that Indian govt delivered oxygen & oxygen concentrators just in time to save thousands of lives. It was delivered by an Indian Navy ship. We will never forget this. A friend in need is a friend indeed

We're having a discussion on vaccines. We understand India has restrictions on the export of vaccines. We hope when India vaccinates all its population, Vietnam will be one of the countries that will be able to access vaccines produced in India: Ambassador of Vietnam to India
Link:https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1433000 ... 63018?s=20
Last edited by Amber G. on 03 Sep 2021 23:54, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Yeah I misread and did madrassa math.

Supply availability is comfortably north of 40 million still. Three days in, the month of Sept already has 25.3 million doses. Keep up that pace and they'll finish north of quarter of a billion as we'd all love to see.

950M total by month end requires 300M supply. Right now, we have:
52-55M carried over from Sept
SII estimates 200M
BB estimates 35M

300M would be nice of course, but the numbers are not there yet. Early Corbevax EUA and availability of early at-risk production from Biological-E could change numbers.

Of course BB could achieve much higher than 35M if their production issues smoothen out sooner than estimated. SII spent 3 months struggling to get from 60M/mo to 100M/mo, but since have accelerated to 150M within a month of that, and now are aiming at 200M this month. If BB is rewarded for their persistence with substantial yield gains then we could see a potential 50M Covaxin supply that would get us to 300M cumulative supply.

Regardless, any cumulative production volume over 200M this month will get total Indian production volume since inception to over 1 billion - an incredible achievement of a much maligned nation that is now busy making EU/US supplies look small.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

AFAIK, the only holiday this month is on Friday, Sep. 10th for Ganesh Chaturthi. Rains will slow in other parts, so getting 250 million vaccinations in September is very likely. My guess is somewhere around 925 million doses administered by Sep. 30th.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Vaccines per week from dashboard:
53.6 Millions in last week
100.8 Millions in last two weeks.

Image
Last edited by Amber G. on 04 Sep 2021 08:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

In one sense, vaccines numbers even if goes up/down 10%, may not make the difference on the prediction of the wave - we may be heading for herd immunity by the end of this month -- Let us hope no immune escape variant in Sept.
(Vaccines + natural immunity we may be reaching that level)

Here is latest graphs from the Sutra Model - apart from Kerala thing look okay.
For India: Ripple of the third wave:
Image

All states looks very similar to above, except Kerala

Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Amber G. wrote:^^As of 7PM according to PIB the number is about 595 Million ( 594,765,751) (Delta = 6,544,128)
Interesting statistics:
First 100 Million - 85 days
Second 100 Million - 45 days
Third 100 Million - 29 days
Fourth 100 Million - 24 days
Fifth 100 Million - 20 days!
Sixth 100 Million - 19 days.. (Will reach by August 25. 7PM)
(Can we get it to 10 days!)
Seventh 100 Million - 13 days (Sept 7) ??? (or will it be 12 days ) (After 9 day and we have 676M)
Added later: After 10 day: Per PIB &PM values: 683,729,058
160 M Fully Vaccinated, 525 M at least one dose, Total 684M , (16M more needed for 200M).
Last edited by Amber G. on 04 Sep 2021 22:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

Day 232: 68,37,29,058 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1752115

Delta: 72,28,757
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

No surprises there - Weekly total well north of 50m, the first time ever.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

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