ramdas wrote:Some states (Kerala, Manipur come to mind) still have a very high testing positivity rate (Kerala's TPR appears to be increasing in the last few days). Should'nt GoI impose stringent restrictions on interstate travel to and from these states ? For instance, such travel should be allowed only for the fully vaccinated who have a negative RT-PCR test within 48/72 hours of travel. In the absence of such steps, it appears that the inability of some state governments to control the spread of covid may set of a third wave sooner than later.
Per SUTRA Model and latest data about Kerala (Check the website for details etc)-
- Phase shift (parameters are still drifting so the prediction has more uncertainty compared to other states.
But rise in Kerala is/was being fueled by expansion of reach (rho parameter). In beginning of April it was about 26% (much lower about half as much as other states like UP). In Mid June it was about 65% (that is 35% of population was un-touched by the pandemic)..
current value is around 90% or more
- ICMR serosurvey showing ~48% seropositivity for Kerala in June - May be around 51 % have immunity -- but there is plenty of places where virus can spread.
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Kerala is testing well the main cause of TPR (and higher reported numbers) -- Data suggest that it is missing only 4.5 cases for every detected case. (Average for India for 1/epsilon is about 33 that is on average for India, about 32 cases are undetected for every detected one - per SUTRA model's current estimation).
- Control on contact rate (beta parameter in the formula) will determine how fast the pandemic spreads. At present, contact rate is controlled due to lockdown --. The moment lockdown is lifted, cases will rise sharply.
Don't know what strategy they will adapt .. extended lockdown leading to economic misery or sharp rise leading to stress in health infra for a short period.
(My view is that Kerala health infra is decent so it should go for a sharper rise leading to quicker end -- hoping people are still disciplined enough to carry out masking and avoiding crowds etc and extend strict measures for a little while till they can do mass vaccinations --- not an easy answer as there are many factors involved)
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This kind of choices are present and are being debated at many other places like Singapore and UK..
The situation is USA (where I live) I am really concerned.. models I am looking at or computing with latest data - virtually all data confirms -, it looks like unless population does BOTH masking and speed-up vaccination AND delta variant does not become more transmissive we are in trouble. The various numbers for R0 floated around for Delta - here goes from 6 and up.. and many states are already (NO surprise to scientists) showing expected exponential rise.