Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 07 Apr 2021 15:54

We don't have any control over oxford vaccine

Bharat biotech must allow other indian pharmas to license produce its vaccine. The pharmas have their own last mile distribution network and they have leverage over family doctors in the country.

The current stalemate is probably because centre is funding the program. Cap the unit cost to 99rs and privatise the program.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 07 Apr 2021 16:22

The number of people in my immediate acquaintances who have tested +ve with various degrees of severity is atleast 10x in last 2 weeks than we had in the entire year 2020. Yesterday the significant other spent a large amount of time working the phones to get a ventilator bed for an ex-colleague's father, and after almost a full day after the need was felt, a bed was finally arranged in a satellite town/suburb late at night.
Family of another 30 something acquaintance had an extremely harrowing time locating an oxygen supported ICU because of rapidly dropping O2 levels and absolutely none being available. Thus, drawing upon the experiences of, and through my simple middle-class folk-lens we have the following hit us :
- Acute Shortage of ventilator beds (Close to 0 availability)
- Acute shortage of ICU/O2 supported beds (Close to 0 availability)
- Almost on the brink of running out of normal observation beds needed for those with declining health.
- Acute shortage of well equipped ambulances/transport (Mega-fleece , something like 20k for a couple of KMs).
- Extremely pitiful state of jumbo care centers with underpaid and understaffed workers, filthy washrooms and terrible meals.
- Shortage of vaccines continues
- Remdesivir being blackmarketed with 5-10k being charged for a dose.

All this is being observed here in Pune, and is actually turning out to be worse than the peak shortages we had in 2020. Unless you are rich and have a tremendous amount of clout, you are in for a terrible ride in Pune, and I suspect most of Maharashtra barring Mumbai. We had a full year to prepare but we are back to square one. I shudder to think of what would have happened if Modiji hadnt taken the decision to lock down the country at great cost last year.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 07 Apr 2021 17:12

Does anyone know why the cases are surging despite the most vulnerable sections already vaccinated(1 dose atleast).Is the 2nd wave exponentially more infectious than the first one or is it now infecting sections considered less vulnerable(and hence still not vaccinated)? Any stats on how many of those vaccinated have tested positive?

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 07 Apr 2021 17:23

SandeepA wrote:Does anyone know why the cases are surging despite the most vulnerable sections already vaccinated(1 dose atleast).Is the 2nd wave exponentially more infectious than the first one or is it now infecting sections considered less vulnerable(and hence still not vaccinated)? Any stats on how many of those vaccinated have tested positive?

I am not a doctor, but in my apartment complex, out of ~20 odd cases, roughly 8 people have taken 1 dose. 5 Hospitalizations out of those 8, out of which 1 has resulted in a death. Not sure how many days after the vaccination they have caught an infection, but the general consensus amongst 90% seniors who have had one dose with whom I have interacted with are extremely dismissive of the vaccine, especially COVISHIELD as the word is going around amongst themselves that it is neither dramatically cushioning the impact nor preventing hospitalization and death.
I suspect GOI has the data or atleast a very fair idea, but they are not going to release this information at all to add to vaccine hesitancy.
I am personally encouraging one and all to take the vaccine and have taken a few seniors for their jabs as well, so that they can avoid risking a cab, and my experience is through their interaction.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 07 Apr 2021 17:31

I wonder how much of the cold chain is maintained for the vaccination? I have seen reports where the vaccination starts off with the cooler full of ice but in direct sun. As the day goes on, the ice melts and is never replenished. I suppose in the better private hospitals this should not be an issue as they would be using refrigerators.

Sajoji,
Your observations arey similar to what I have seen in Mumbai. Cases are more prevalent in high rise buildings than last year with at least 3-4 at a time. It could be that we are testing more this time as compared to last year or it could be a massive increase. Your comments about people getting infected after vaccination are correct as well, this is leading to loss of faith in the vaccine to some extent. I am aware it takes 3 weeks to a month after the first dose to get some level of resistance, but it would seem this virus is especially virulent....

We need to do more genome sequencing of the virus to track all known mutations...

nam · Post by **nam** » 07 Apr 2021 17:39

How is that the people who have taken vaccination seem to have got infected now? within 2-3 weeks? and not before?

I will hazard a guess that these people threw all the caution in to winds, once they got the vacation. I am fairly certain, they went out for weddings and assumed life is back to normal.

My parents have got the vaccine. I have told them to stay put and no drama like attending weddings. Not until you get the second dose.

For older people with health issues, the vaccine does not guarantee immunity. Older people cannot generate the required immunity level for any vaccine, not just chinese virus. That's why they need to take precautions.

Being irresponsible and then blaming the vaccine, is the typical behavior of our people.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 07 Apr 2021 17:59

something in a lighter vein

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 07 Apr 2021 18:05

Namji,

I can only speak from experience and anecdotal data. The cases are higher this time around. It may be a combination of various factors... not all old people were attending weddings or over confident. But the rising case load is worrying.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 07 Apr 2021 18:06

Tanaji wrote:I wonder how much of the cold chain is maintained for the vaccination? I have seen reports where the vaccination starts off with the cooler full of ice but in direct sun. As the day goes on, the ice melts and is never replenished. I suppose in the better private hospitals this should not be an issue as they would be using refrigerators.

Tanaji Saheb, that is a very real possibility. I wonder why the manufacturers are simply not including a thermochromic sticker on the vial to indicate whether the liquid is still at its desired temperature or not? If the sticker has changed color based on the heat simply discard that vial and get a new one.

Tanaji wrote: Sajoji,
Your observations arey similar to what I have seen in Mumbai. Cases are more prevalent in high rise buildings than last year with at least 3-4 at a time. It could be that we are testing more this time as compared to last year or it could be a massive increase. Your comments about people getting infected after vaccination are correct as well, this is leading to loss of faith in the vaccine to some extent. I am aware it takes 3 weeks to a month after the first dose to get some level of resistance, but it would seem this virus is especially virulent....

We need to do more genome sequencing of the virus to track all known mutations...

Also,do you believe the intermingling of seniors at vaccine sites with large amount of asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic people like nurses, support staff, people accompanying seniors, auto and cab drivers etc could be a contributor? The timing coincides! I dont know about Mumbai but around here, all 4-5 sites that I had visited barring one, were uniformly crowded. Enough for Arogya Setu to capture 80-90 contacts in each visit. Most of those whom I know who are infected despite a dose were sensible, careful citizens who stayed safe during all of 2020.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 07 Apr 2021 18:22

06 Apr

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 07 Apr 2021 18:50

It seems MH is in corruption scandals, PJ is caught up in farmer protests, and CH in law and order criminal naxalite issues. High Covid infection rate and death rate points to state mismanagement. Maybe time to warn these states that if they don’t improve numbers within a fortnight, they’re looking at being dismissed and under president rule.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Apr 2021 20:23

Presser on Oxford vaccine concluded just now by EMA & UK regulatory authority

Summary of EMA presser on Oxford
- unusual blood clots with low blood platelets should be listed as very rare side effects of the vaccine
- overall benefits of the vaccine in preventing COVID-19 outweigh the risks of side effects
- HIT-like mechanism is plausible

UK
Under 30 yrs of age to be offered alternative to Oxford due to rare blood clot risks

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 07 Apr 2021 21:20

Serum Institute asks government for $403 million to boost output

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 07 Apr 2021 22:02

sajo wrote:
SandeepA wrote:Does anyone know why the cases are surging despite the most vulnerable sections already vaccinated(1 dose atleast).Is the 2nd wave exponentially more infectious than the first one or is it now infecting sections considered less vulnerable(and hence still not vaccinated)? Any stats on how many of those vaccinated have tested positive?
I am not a doctor, but in my apartment complex, out of ~20 odd cases, roughly 8 people have taken 1 dose. 5 Hospitalizations out of those 8, out of which 1 has resulted in a death. Not sure how many days after the vaccination they have caught an infection, but the general consensus amongst 90% seniors who have had one dose with whom I have interacted with are extremely dismissive of the vaccine, especially COVISHIELD as the word is going around amongst themselves that it is neither dramatically cushioning the impact nor preventing hospitalization and death.
I suspect GOI has the data or atleast a very fair idea, but they are not going to release this information at all to add to vaccine hesitancy.
I am personally encouraging one and all to take the vaccine and have taken a few seniors for their jabs as well, so that they can avoid risking a cab, and my experience is through their interaction.

When did these people get the vaccine? It takes about three weeks for the antibodies to be generated, and focus itself incubates on average for 5-7 days. If they get infected one or two weeks after the first dose, it's not going to be any help.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 07 Apr 2021 22:16

Deleted. Please don't use this thread for conspiracy theory discussion. We are in the midst of a pandemic. Clear and sensible information dissemination is of the essence here.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 07 Apr 2021 22:19

the problem is people are mis informed... tika le liya ab darne ki koi baat nahi hai... need to take all precautions, SD etc. i believe the govt strategy to do age wise vax was wrong.. families should have been allowed/encouraged to take vax together.

milindc · Post by **milindc** » 07 Apr 2021 23:05

I have some old data from 2018, and based on that estimation is that we have around 33.6 cr population who are aged 45+. Our vaccine manufacturing capacity is currently around 7cr per month. Unless we increase our capacity, we will be looking at Oct/Nov before other age groups are vaccinated. Maybe they should just give one dose based on scientific validation. We might be in a situation where a good percentage of this number will not be taking the vaccine.

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 07 Apr 2021 23:15

I request members and lurkers to read these articles carefully before picking up any conspiracy theory.
Here is an article in "Nature" with a lot of details:

What scientists do and don’t know about the Oxford–AstraZeneca COVID vaccine

Unlike many of the vaccines, which are expensive and must be stored at very low temperatures, the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine can be kept in an ordinary fridge and costs a few dollars per dose. And, because it is expected to be produced on a huge scale, it could play a vital part in quelling the pandemic.

That is why we do not have Pfizer and Moderna in India.

The vaccine has received regulatory approval in more than 100 countries and should be used with confidence, Kristine Macartney, director of Australia’s National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance in Sydney

India is one of those more than 100 countries that are using this vaccine, at least 90% of Indians are getting this vaccine and 10% are getting Covaxin. Why? Because of the manufacturing capacities.

More than 20 million doses have been administered in EU countries and the United Kingdom, as have a further 27 million in India of a version of the vaccine known as Covishield.

two doses to be 79% effective at preventing COVID-19

No participants who received the vaccine were hospitalized or died, even though 60% had pre-existing conditions associated with increased risk of severe disease, such as diabetes or obesity.

Now the big question about one-dose efficacy. Given that most people in India are getting only one dose as of right now, what do we know about its efficacy? Here is an article (Source: BusinessInsider

A single AstraZeneca shot is probably at least 70% effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19.

A single dose of AstraZeneca's shot was 76% effective at protecting against COVID-19 with symptoms for at least 90 days, according to late-stage-trial data published in The Lancet on February 19. The study authors also reported that one dose provided 100% protection against hospitalization, but the numbers were small.

Meaning there is a 30% chance of getting Covid after one dose of Covidshield.

Next question, how soon does one get significant immunity after one dose?

Here is another article (Source: BBC) to answer that question:

By comparing those with the number of cases before vaccination, the researchers estimated both jabs (meaning Pfizer and AstraZeneca) were effective at preventing 56% of infections after four weeks, rising to 62% after five weeks.

SOOOO, we need to be patient. One dose of vaccine is not enough to protect us for at least 3-6 weeks after the vaccination. We need to take precautions as if no vaccination has happened. Social distancing and wearing masks are the keys to safety. Public transportation is dangerous when it comes to Covid. One should absolutely wear masks in local trains, maybe they should wear two of them. (There is some evidence that two masks are better than one.)

What about expanding the age eligibility for vaccination?
ABSOLUTELY not. The monthly supply of both vaccines is below 80 million. We are vaccinating about 150 - 200 million per week when the eligibility is >= 45. This is the most vulnerable group for severe disease and death. Look at the mortality rates (Source: Lancet):

As you can see the mortality rate jumps from 1% for age group (35-44) to 10% for age group 45-54 and 54% for age group > 84. In an ideal world, we should have an unlimited supply of the vaccine and we should vaccinate everybody who is vulnerable to disease as well as those who can act as carriers. BUT we are not in that world. So what is the best option, let's vaccinate those who are more vulnerable to death from COVID first to reduce the mortality rate.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Apr 2021 23:19

Shekhar Gupta was propagating senseless talk about opening up vaccinations to enable people who can afford it to pay for it. I responded:
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1379677203600793605

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 07 Apr 2021 23:26

Suraj wrote:Shekhar Gupta was propagating senseless talk about opening up vaccinations to enable people who can afford it to pay for it. I responded:
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1379677203600793605

Great job, Suraj. Thank you for countering misinformation and vested interests.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 07 Apr 2021 23:28

My take is that GoI might expand age limit to 35 starting from May 1st or might as well wait it out till May 2nd-3rd week so that many over 60 can finish their 2nd dosage. I do think there are some supply constraints when it comes to vaccines.

GoI finally has allowed employers to vaccinate on-site but still capping the age limit to 45

SII is probably under lot of pressure to honor its export commitments. GoI is putting pressure on SII as well to increase supply share to India...so SII probably said "we will open another line for India" and is asking 3000 Cr for the same. I think GoI has already roped in other indigenous vaccine manufacturers to help in ramping up Covaxin numbers.

Hopefully, Sputnik will be authorized soon as well although I think Reddy labs said they can supply up to 100 million doses per year.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Apr 2021 23:30

Uttam wrote:
Suraj wrote:Shekhar Gupta was propagating senseless talk about opening up vaccinations to enable people who can afford it to pay for it. I responded:
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1379677203600793605
Great job, Suraj. Thank you for countering misinformation and vested interests.

Thanks! Please post that demographic group-wise mortality rate data and figure there too if you'd like - I think it's very helpful data.

LonelyTraveler · Post by **LonelyTraveler** » 07 Apr 2021 23:44

If I understand correctly - both Covishield and Covaxin are based on inactive/dead coronavirus . Which makes me wonder- if people who have been vaccinated get tested, would the tests show them infected, because they have been injected with the virus cells?

In other words, I wonder if the cases of vaccinated people testing positive, can be possible False positives?

Anyone here know if this is a possiblilty?

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 08 Apr 2021 00:15

Something needs to be done for this mid-week drop in vaccination rate. Today (Wednesday) again only 13 lakhs till 8 pm. Maybe the medical staff can be requisitioned to vaccinate at employer locations during the mid-week lull!

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Apr 2021 00:20

The inactivated or dead virus is absorbed by the body and virus does not show up in any test. So they do not show up as positive.

After vaccination and once your body develops full immunity, even if you are infected with virus and go for a test. You may not show it positive. Since your body is fighting and killing off the virus and digesting them.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 08 Apr 2021 00:29

Uttam wrote:Something needs to be done for this mid-week drop in vaccination rate. Today (Wednesday) again only 13 lakhs till 8 pm. Maybe the medical staff can be requisitioned to vaccinate at employer locations during the mid-week lull!

I've stopped posting the 8pm data since I'm not sure when their cutoff actually is, and the data seems not very useful, as compared to full day figure. Some days, the 7-8pm data shows ~2 million. The other day it was just 500K people, and yet in both cases the full day number was over 3 million.

I would much prefer that they post the full day count along with breakdown by priority group and dose number. I posted asking MoHFW to do so. However that message didn't find much takers.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 08 Apr 2021 00:38

nam wrote:How is that the people who have taken vaccination seem to have got infected now? within 2-3 weeks? and not before?

I will hazard a guess that these people threw all the caution in to winds, once they got the vacation. I am fairly certain, they went out for weddings and assumed life is back to normal.

It is worse than that in some cases. People stop wearing masks after getting the vaccine in the stupid belief that they don't need to anymore. This is doubly worse because the mask primarily protect other people from getting infected if the wearer contracts covid. And you can definitely contract the disease even after vaccination. Especially if you have gotten only one dose and it has not been 4 weeks or more for the immune response to fully kick in. I saw one instance of a lady volunteering to go to a crowded place to buy something because she had been vaccinated and "her body was now full of antibodies" a couple of weeks after her first dose. Even if you try educating such people they may not believe you. I have been trying my best to point out the flaws in this line of thinking and the danger in giving up precautions within my extended family for a long time now. It gets very frustrating when you see otherwise educated people acting like dunderheads and putting themselves and others in danger.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 08 Apr 2021 00:40

If we are constrained by vaccine supply, there is no justification to open up the process for those under 45. If the production of vaccines is more than the people seeking vaccination for a few weeks, then it can be opened up for other age groups.

Shekhar Coupta is a naxalite in intelligentsia camouflage and his aim is to spread disaffection among younger Indians, thereby making him relevant again.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 08 Apr 2021 01:07

Zucker Doctor
@DoctorLFC
·
20h
Hearing few encouraging stories about senior citizens who got their first dose early on and got COVID19 3-4 weeks thereafter, experiencing only mild symptoms and recovering. Ideally we should have more authentic and official data on this. Will help reduce vaccine hesitancy.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Apr 2021 01:50

LonelyTraveler wrote:If I understand correctly - both Covishield and Covaxin are based on inactive/dead coronavirus . Which makes me wonder- if people who have been vaccinated get tested, would the tests show them infected, because they have been injected with the virus cells?

In other words, I wonder if the cases of vaccinated people testing positive, can be possible False positives?

Anyone here know if this is a possiblilty?

No, only Covaxin is based on an inactive CV strain which trains the immune system against it. Covishield adds the Spike protein common to CV to an adenovirus which cant replicate in humans, but can replicate the spike proteins and which can be used to train the immune system against them.

No, they can't cause you to test positive for CV - a positive test means one got infected.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/coronaviru ... fcd77d38b3

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 08 Apr 2021 01:51

Suraj wrote:
Karan M wrote:
Incorrect decision, I agree.
There is a lot of misinformation here. People, please go to PIB India for any major ‘center says’ news. If it’s not an official PR, be careful about posting stuff .

Here is the PIB site: PIB All Press Releases

Use the drop down menus to find Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and find the and quote the exact PR where needed.

Good point. I can't find any such report. Bar one castigating only two hospitals for doing fraud.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 08 Apr 2021 01:54

Not enough Covid vaccines, Maharashtra urges Centre for 40 lakh more doses per week

Many inoculation centres in Maharashtra are being shut due to the shortage of coronavirus vaccine, Health Minister Rajesh Tope said on Wednesday, adding the state now has 14 lakh doses which would last just three days.

A senior health official said Maharashtra will run out of the vaccine stock "today or tomorrow".

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 08 Apr 2021 01:58

European Medicines Agency confirms clots as 'very rare' AstraZeneca side effect

The EU's drug regulator said Wednesday that blood clots should be listed as a "very rare" side effect of the AstraZeneca NSE 1.40 % coronavirus vaccine but that the jab's benefits continue to outweigh the risks.

No specific risk factors, including age, have been identified for thrombosis with the AstraZeneca shot, which could stem from an immune response, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) said.

"EMA's safety committee has concluded today that unusual blood clots with low blood platelets should be listed as very rare side effects" of the AstraZeneca jab, the Amsterdam-based watchdog said in a statement.

But it stressed that it believed people should continue to take the vaccine as part of the battle against the disease.

"The safety committee has confirmed that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine in preventing Covid-19 overall outweigh the risk of side effects," EMA chief Emer Cooke told a news conference.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 08 Apr 2021 02:01

Kakkaji wrote:Not enough Covid vaccines, Maharashtra urges Centre for 40 lakh more doses per week

And this.

Centre slams Maharashtra, some other states for spreading panic about vaccine availability

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 08 Apr 2021 02:02

UK agency: Under-30s to be offered non-AstraZeneca vaccine

The United Kingdom's drug regulator says the AstraZeneca vaccine has huge benefits but people under 30 will be offered another product due to a rare blood clot risk.

The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency said Wednesday that while it is studying the possible connection between AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine and rare blood clots, the Pfizer NSE 0.47 % and Moderna vaccines should be offered to people in that age group.

Dr. June Raine, the head of he MHRA, says that the benefits ``continue to outweigh the risks for the vast majority of people.''

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 08 Apr 2021 02:07

COVID-19 vaccination at public, private workplaces having 100 eligible beneficiaries from April 11

The government will allow COVID-19 vaccination at public and private workplaces having about 100 eligible beneficiaries from April 11 across states and Union territories. Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan in a letter to the chief secretaries said a substantial proportion of population aged 45 years and above is in the organised sector of the economy and is involved in formal occupation in offices (government and private) or manufacturing and services.

"in order to increase the access of vaccine to these populations, COVID-19 vaccination sessions may be organised at work places (both public & private) which are having about 100 eligible and willing beneficiaries by tagging these work places with an existing COVID vaccination centre," Bhushan said in the letter .

He said the states can initiate due consultations with private/public sector employers and management to prepare for launch of work place vaccination.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 08 Apr 2021 02:10

India becomes fastest Covid vaccinating country, surpasses US

India has become the fastest Covid-19 vaccinating country in the world with a daily average of 30,93,861 vaccine doses, the Union Health Ministry said on Wednesday. With this, India has surpassed the US which is vaccinating 30.93 lakh people per day on an average.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 08 Apr 2021 02:23

No vaccine in Nellore, Andhra Pradesh may run out of jabs by Thursday

On Tuesday, Nellore, Andhra Pradesh became the first district in the country to run out of covid vaccines, and two more districts in the state are likely to run out of vaccines on Wednesday. State authorities told ET there’s a statewide shortage, and that the Centre has said supplies can be sent “only after April 15”.

Union health secretary Rajesh Bhushan and additional secretary Manohar Agnani were not available for comments. A written questionnaire sent to the ministry remained unanswered till press time. The health ministry takes note of states’ vaccine stocks daily at 9 am. In Andhra, according to the state’s commissioner (health and family welfare) Katamneni Bhaskar, stocks will run out by Thursday.

“We are in short supply of covid vaccines. We have requested the government of India for addition al supplies. By day after tomorrow our stocks will be out,”

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 08 Apr 2021 06:02

Kakkaji wrote:India could resume vaccine exports by June: Serum Institute's Adar Poonawalla

The world's largest vaccine maker, based in India, will be able to restart exports of AstraZeneca doses by June if new coronavirus infections subside in the country, its chief executive said Tuesday

But a continued surge could result in more delays because the Serum Institute of India would have to meet domestic needs, Adar Poonawalla warned in an interview with The Associated Press.

Important statement about SII capacity from Poonawalla:

‘Require Rs 3,000 cr to Ramp up Vaccine Production’
Serum Institute would require around Rs 3,000 crore to ramp up production capacity for making Covid-19 vaccines, CEO Adar Poonawalla said on Tuesday.

“We need roughly Rs 3,000 crore, which is not a small figure, considering we have already spent thousands of crores. We have to find other innovative ways to build our capacity so we can support our nation in light of the Covid surge,” Poonawalla said.

The company hopes to increase its capacity of Covishield to 110 million doses per month from June, he added. It is producing 2 million doses per day.

Looks like supplies are going to be tight over April and May.

Bharat Biotect also needs money to ramp up production.

I hope the Sputnik is approved soon. Dr Reddy's has lined up a lot of capacity with sub-suppliers to boost the vaccination program in India once the sputnik is approved.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 08 Apr 2021 06:32

Transcript of wide-ranging interview with Adar Poonawalla. Lot of good information:

Vaccine industry has sacrificed billions of dollars to support the nation: Adar Poonawalla

we have to cover the vulnerable first whilst also trying to find ways of cutting transmission etc. etc. Now, do we have enough vaccines to cover everybody ---absolutely not, nobody in the world has it, no country has it, we do not have it because you are talking about 1.3 billion people multiplied by two.

We have a capacity of 60 to 70 million doses which we hope to ramp up in the next 2-3 months partly with the government proposal and through borrowing money from banks to build an additional plant and facility that will take at least three months to churn out product. In the interim we are relying on our existing capacity and other vaccine manufacturers in India who will also supply some doses so this is where we are at the moment. Opening up more than this age group of 45 is a very tough decision to make-- there is no right or wrong answer. Right now, we have to go with what we have in hand which is the vaccine supply and vulnerable people that you have to protect before the younger population.

Tamanna Inamdar: In previous interviews - you talked about 60 mn capacities that you were hoping to increase to 100 mn by February. What are the causes of delays that we are seeing and do you have a timeline in mind for when these new capacities can be added?

Adar Poonawalla: At that time when we had the fire incident, we said the existing vaccine capacities would not be affected. In March, we wanted this extra capacity to come about for India and you know global capacity has been pushed back because of the fire by two- two and a half months which is why in June --you will get that additional 40 to 50 million doses per month coming up.

Now, we are trying to claw that time back as much as possible but it is the 85 days cycle from the time to start manufacturing. If we start today, it will take us three months from today to deliver those doses in a filled, packed, tested form which can actually go out to different states. We never imagined that we will need so many doses in India because we did not imagine this kind of surge happening from where new challenge is coming. We hope to launch our Novavax product -which is called Covovax by September so this is where we are at the moment.

Tamanna Inamdar: You have said this before that you are not looking at as manufacturer of this vaccine, you are doing this to save lives but the fact is that this is a business that requires investments. Is there enough incentive right now for you to ramp up capacity with the vaccine prices being capped at Rs 150?

Adar Poonawalla: So initially, when this was agreed between vaccine manufacturers and the Government of India --we have done it with the view that we need to support India during this crisis and profits can be made after few months when it opens up to the private market. Right now, we need to support the Modi government in this Herculean task of vaccinating everybody and protecting the poor, the vulnerable and everyone else. So the vaccine industry has sacrificed billions of dollars of profits because we want to support the Modi government in this endeavour in providing this vaccine at this price.

This is a temporary measure for a few months, this is not sustainable for the long term. We have done this in the interest of the nation to be short and precise. You know the average price for this commodity is $20-$30 but we do not care about that, we are doing this to support our nation in a time of crisis and then we will see after two or three months when we can review all of this to a more sustainable level where the industry can innovate, can use its profits to build more factories in the future, to employ more people all that we are hoping to do after few months. This is just a temporary phase where we need to do what the nation needs us to do.

IMHO if the GoI keeps insisting on a price of Rs 150/ dose, there will not be enough new capacity coming up on line to cover the population of India. Not just SII, but other private players will also find it tough to supply at Rs 150 per dose.

The purse strings will have to be loosened a bit. The cost of not having enough vaccine in time is a lot more.