Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Atmavik
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

UK hospitalization rate looks ok but us is bad. Uk data is good news for vaccines and boosters
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Good news

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BAD NEWS. US hospitals are full ... ERs are full ... situation is bad. they are suppressing deaths/counts

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May be Astrazeneca is better than mRNA
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Yayavar »

Karan M wrote:
Yayavar wrote:On a side note - I had read Kulli Bhaat of Nirala many many moons back. In that he describes the 1920 epidemic and how in no time he lost most of his family including his wife. He described the dead bodies in the river. And now I see desi english reporters have discovered it and referencing it. They probably discovered it during the 2nd wave in India. But their research is only so much - they claim it is a story of a dalit. When the very first thing Nirlan says - Pandit Patwaridin Bhatt (kulli) was his friend.

Whether Dalit or Pandit the story would not have changed much. I am continuously disappointed by the journalists. One doesn't know what to believe if they can't even get this right.
What is there to be disappointed about sir, after so many years on BRF or even on SM. Most of these worthies sold their soul to the other side for promises of lucre a long time back, whereas others are deracinated self-loathing types. They care nothing for the truth. The aim is to play ok with gora propaganda that preserves the self-image of the west as being the exemplars of human civilization whereas everyone else is either too dictatorial or incompetent or both.
True, yet one hopes that there is more competence. In this case I just think they or their editor just assumed. The core was the flu epidemic but they could not let go of the urge to introduce their inner Darka-ness.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Last two days have been extremely strong on the vaccination front. Looking at the 7PM PIB data, Monday was 9.25 million and Tuesday was 10.12 million . Good to see teenagers driving up the numbers so strongly. Just four days into the year and two days of 15+ vaccination has seen over 25 million doses done. At this pace we're easily on track to blow past 1.5 billion doses by end of this week - a couple more 10 million days and it'll be reached by Friday itself.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Yayavar »

Amber G. wrote:
On a side note - I had read Kulli Bhaat of Nirala many many moons back. In that he describes the 1920 epidemic..
Interestingly my father who was a teenager in 1918 epidemic - kept journals and describes this in quite details. I read those last year - quite interesting - lot of things changed in last 100 years but lot of things - especially people's way of thinking is still the same. (Our family have those documents saved and lot of it has been digitized so others can read it)
Amber ji, I would like to read.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Noticed this from Kanchan Gupta (Senior Advisor at the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting GoI)
Image
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Amber G. wrote: It remains to be seen in which category this new variant will fall.
Scientists (including India Scientists) are keeping a close watch.

https://twitter.com/vinodscaria/status/ ... 89568?s=20
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile the "mild" variant is in the news --
- India reporting 37,379 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 488% from last week - and many places (eg Delhi) announces weekend lockdown ...
- US with more than 1 million new cases (including back log counting)- average 7day count is 500,000+ historic high. Peak is still to come (according to Sutra). Many states are recording highest numbers. Hospital admission > 100 K (Mostly due to unvaccinated - including anti-vaxers like DA Kelly Ernby, who died at young age of 46 needlessly)
- Australia (~48K) .. by far the biggest one-day increase on record and many other countries are in the same position - eg France (~270K) etc...
- Another Chinese city is on total lock down.

****
ay be Astrazeneca is better than mRNA
Not at all from the data - In Europe, Canada, even in US (J&J which is similar in some-respect to AZ)..mRNA vaccines are clearly showing their advantages ..(Most/many countries are clearly preferring mRNA for boosters - with *solid* data.

Not to discourage people from getting Covidshield / Covaxin - all vaccines are *much* better than no vaccine. The type of vaccine you get is *much* less important than delaying or waiting for better one. Also *very* clear from SA and UK data - natural immunity (from getting delta or other variant) also does wanes and is *not* a strong protecter (less than vaccine/booster induced immunity). So get a vaccine. (Have heard *many* stories where these people who 'cheated' or lied that they are vaccinated/tested -ive in Christmas/New_Year family gathering ended up spreading this among family and ruining family relations).

***
Sutra graphs for India -- data being shared with admin etc - and may be in a day or two - likely to be out for key districts. To be clear the data used here is in public domain and so are the methods - so anyone interested can use it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) has approved India's first Covid test kit to detect Omicron variant infections.
OmiSure is manufactured by Tata Medical and Diagnostics.
Currently India uses a US developed Kit which is more expensive and time consuming.
Link: https://zeenews.india.com/india/icmr-ap ... 25346.html
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/humans ... ished=true
Humans 2, Omicron 1
Our smart immune system with multiple layers of defense and a virus with less intrinsic pathogenicity will help us win the latest variant battle
Eric Topol
It's pretty impressive that vaccines directed to the ancestral strain spike from 2 years ago, with the virus that's evolved through nearly 300 million confirmed cases, and now to the hyper-mutated Omicron, have preserved efficacy of near 90% vs severe disease with a 3rd shot.
But there’s more than that. Our memory B cells, after a 3rd shot, adapt with a subset that has high Omicron reactivity. This adds another line of defense to our immunity wall, as nicely depicted in this recent review of memory B cells.
The first line of defense induced by vaccination, neutralizing antibodies to Omicron, increase by 20-40 fold after the 3rd (booster) dose, which aligns with ~70% effectiveness vs symptomatic infection in 2 reports (South Africa and UK). Without the 3rd shot, there is minimal protection (<30% vaccine effectiveness point estimate).

Back to the initial sentence of this post, the latest UK report has shown us the vaccine effectiveness versus Omicron severe disease. i.e. hospitalizations with a 3rd shot (all brands vaccine) is 88%, which represents a marked increase from the waned 52% vaccine effectiveness vs hospitalization.
3rd shot needs to be there according to this

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Okay - It turns out that assumption(s) that Omicron's parameters behave in India more like SA (large native immunity etc) was not that correct - looking at the data..

The lock-downs or people behaving better may change this further, but at present, it looks like Mumbai peak is reaching around Jan 15th rather than a month later... (Lockdowns or people using more masks etc can flatten and delay the peak by one or two weeks -- but if the things remain the way they are - the graph looks like below).

Please stay safe:
Image

(Credit for above graph : Sutra team - graph drawn by using public data with publicly available methods of this mathematical model)

(India as a whole - and hot spots - parameters are drifting -- we may see higher and earlier peak - but if simple act of Masks and avoiding crowd is followed widely - can *really* help).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

^^Could you please post the graph for Bengaluru if the parameters are stabilized enough for SUTRA folks to churn out numbers?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Will do --(some data/graphs are being shared with Indian administration and newspapers before distributing widely but mainly the situation is drifting quite rapidly - so more time is needed == small error in reporting of actual data can cause huge difference so one has to look at the data and see how reliable/stable it is before any meaningful prediction can be made)...Hopefully IIT/H (or some such site) becomes live/current and these graphs are easily available for each district.

Meanwhile have seen some various other "projections" .. NOT all such projections are valid IMHO - especially some projected by "nothing more than expert knowledge from some reporters or their experts".

Here is the site where you can get latest info : https://sutra-consortium.in/
Last edited by Amber G. on 05 Jan 2022 22:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ritesh »

Amber G. wrote:Noticed this from Kanchan Gupta (Senior Advisor at the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting GoI)
Image
Yes... Realised this only recently. He is doing a good job of slaying the fake news peddlers and prestittudes left right centre.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

We probably need to give booster shots quickly to all who had taken 6 months ago. It is giving 80% protection
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

For US it seems a peak between 15-20 Jan with ~ 800K cases/day. small uncertainty in height of peak - the timing of peak is IMHO is reasonably well.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Another strong day of vaccinations. So far this week:
Sun 2,837,478
Mon 9,247,316
Tue 10,116,832
Wed 9,566,037

Week to date is already 32 million. Should finish with around 55-60 million by Saturday.

12.5 million kids in the 15-17 age group have so far received their Covaxin doses.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Speaking of vaccinations - It might be interesting to see this - using their own data (provided by countries) and goals how close the world is in its goals.
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(global COVID vaccination goals to monitor the next WHO target: for every country to have fully vaccinated 70% of its population by mid-2022. Interestingly (but not surprising) India is on track, US is not - along with 100+ other countries.
(The data is provided by it's own government - so how much one believes (or not believes) in this graph can be debated but it still is interesting).
(Unless the whole world gets vaccinated - new variants etc will keep emerging - Hence it is important to vaccinate as many people as one can).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

Amber G. wrote:(India as a whole - and hot spots - parameters are drifting -- we may see higher and earlier peak - but if simple act of Masks and avoiding crowd is followed widely - can *really* help).
Is the drift related to some non-linearities that are not modeled or presumed second-order effects?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

U.S. reports more than more than 700,000 new coronavirus cases - I think the biggest one-day increase (without back-log) on record and one state is still to report.

Many countries in Europe (France, Italy) also reporting - by far the largest increase ..
India ~86 K new cases and rising/spreading fast.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Atmavik wrote:UK hospitalization rate looks ok but us is bad. Uk data is good news for vaccines and boosters
FWIW - UK seem to be reaching it's peak within a week or so (per SUTRA model)..(Near 200K).
Watching US data closely (especially fine-grain data in the areas where our family member lives)
US may see its peak in around two weeks (Jan 15-2) with around 800K .. though infection data looks similar in many states, *clear* difference between different states and localities -- Vaccines (especially not counting boosters) makes less difference in infection rate but big difference in serious illness/deaths.
US has now approved boosters for 12 years and up (and lowered the waiting time)..
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

^^^ the key is to avoid hospitalization. If vaccinated people are recovering in a week with mild symptoms then we will be ok.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Goodnight!
(Update before going to sleep)

U.S. reports 716,714 new coronavirus cases, setting world record for cases in one day!
(New cases set world record, number in hospital continues to rise)
(Tennessee says it's no longer providing daily COVID-19 updates, despite a surge in cases and hospitalizations. It will issue weekly reports instead, with the first full update on January 19)


- New cases: 716,714
- Average: 588,652 (+33,191)
- States reporting: 49/50
- In hospital: 119,548 (+6,124)
- In ICU: 21,210 (+593)
- New deaths: 2,001

(Hospital U.S. hospitals update:
- Capacity in use: 77.9% (+2 )
- With COVID: 17.0% (+0.8 )
- With flu: 0.34% (-0.03)
- With flu and COVID: 0.04% (-)

- ICU capacity in use: 80.3% (+1.8 )
- With COVID: 26.6% (+0.5)
- With flu: 0.31% (-0.01)
==> Getty Center has detected LA's first case of flurona, (a combination of influenza and coronavirus)
==>Xi'an Xianyang (One of China's busiest airports) cancels all remaining flights amid COVID outbreak
===> Israel (one of the most vaccinated country) : New cases at record-high, up 400% from last week

India reports 90,928 new coronavirus cases, up 600 % from last week.

Stay Safe.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Today another strong Vaccination day 9.2 million (6 M first dose and 3 M second dose)
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

It’s actually 9.9 million vaccinations on Thursday looking at 7pm to 7pm PIB data. Week total is 42 million and month is 45 million, just six days in. 16.5 million teenagers vaccinated since Monday.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Suraj wrote:It’s actually 9.9 million vaccinations on Thursday looking at 7pm to 7pm PIB data. Week total is 42 million and month is 45 million, just six days in. 16.5 million teenagers vaccinated since Monday.
excellent ... unbelievably strong

Hope we have enough doses for booster shot. May be we can go to 15-20 M from Jan 10.

on top of it, we are exporting too
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 057944.ece

After DCGI nod, Biological E to scale up Corbevax production


Eyeing 100 million doses a month from February
Close on the heels of getting emergency use authorisation for its COVID-19 vaccine Corbevax, from the Drugs Controller General of India, Biological E has announced plans to ramp up production.

The vaccine maker said it plans to complete production of the vaccine at a rate of 75 million doses per month and anticipates to touch more than 100 million doses per month from February.

https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/healt ... 131875.ece
Traditional vaccines just as effective, says U.S. scientist
mRNA jabs shiny new toys, says Dr. Peter Hotez, Dean of Baylor College of Medicine’s Tropical Medicines School and Chair at Texas Children’s Hospital.
Vaccines like Biological-E’s Corbevax and Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin that are made by traditional methods are “just as effective” as the latest mRNA technology based vaccines, says U.S. scientist and vaccine developer Dr. Peter Hotez. He announced last week that his research teams would transfer production technology to companies in India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Botswana free of patents.

According to Dr. Hotez, who is the Dean of Houston-based Baylor College of Medicine’s Tropical Medicines School and Chair at Texas Children’s Hospital, the traditional method “protein subunit vaccines” and “live inactivated vaccines” are cheaper and simpler to produce at the scale required for low and middle income countries.

“We never really saw the advantage of mRNA, at least for a global health vaccine… because it’s a brand new technology and it’s going to take years to figure out how you scale it up to make 9 billion doses for Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America,” Dr. Hotez told The Hindu in an interview, where he called the new vaccines “shiny new toys”.

Science policy makers, particularly in the U.S., were “too focused” on speed and innovation and not on ensuring universal vaccination, he noted. In particular he said the method developed by him and Dr. Maria Elena Bottazzi through the same “yeast fermentation expression technology” used to make the Recombinant Hepatitis-B vaccine first approved in the 1980s, was also safe for children, and less likely to cause vaccine hesitancy amongst parents, as it has been used for decades.
India had a major disruption in its vaccine exports, due to the Delta variant in 2021. And at that time, you had said that the world should not just depend on India for its vaccines. Do you think India can reclaim its position as a global vaccine supplier?
I think it will. And I would even argue maybe it already is taking big steps that way, because it has lifted a lot of those export bans and Bio-E has a commitment to providing vaccine to the COVAX sharing facility for the world. I think if you actually talk to the individual vaccine producers, that commitment in supplying vaccines for the world has never, never wavered.

In that sense, has global Pharma and many countries failed, by delaying the WTO proposal to waive patents, as proposed by India and South Africa?
Well, that's why we bucked the trend and said, we're going to make our vaccine, and give it to the world. And while the rest of them want to bicker about patents, we're not going to go down and that direction. But I do feel that even if we were to liberalise all the patent laws, which I think we should, it still wont be enough, unless we try to build more capacity. Because right now, vaccines for all practical purposes are not made on the African continent.

Another legal question is that of indemnity waiver, which US companies want and India has refused…
All I can say is I got my MD and PhD in order to make life saving interventions and the idea that millions of people are dying all over the world from COVID, while we're bickering about indemnity waivers and legalities is unacceptable. When your house is on fire, you don't start looking at looking at what what the insurance is going to do and who's indemnified- the house is on fire and we have to save lives.

Would you say traditional vaccines like Corbevax and the Indian Covaxin are as effective as other vaccines?
Well, in some ways, perhaps better. I mean, we're already starting to see their performance while some of the mRNA vaccines may be starting to falter.
For example, once individuals get the third dose of the mRNA vaccines, that should provide long lasting, durable protection based on what we know for other vaccines, but it's not holding up very well against Omicron, and after a few months they say the mRNA vaccines may drop effectiveness by half. When you go with a brand new technology, there's a learning curve. You have to really balance the portfolio with the old school of vaccines, which may be just as good or better because at least we know their performance features and know something about their durability. So I would suggest balancing what will ensure that everybody gets vaccinated than by going exclusively with what I sometimes call the shiny new toys.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

vijayk wrote:
Suraj wrote:It’s actually 9.9 million vaccinations on Thursday looking at 7pm to 7pm PIB data. Week total is 42 million and month is 45 million, just six days in. 16.5 million teenagers vaccinated since Monday.
excellent ... unbelievably strong

Hope we have enough doses for booster shot. May be we can go to 15-20 M from Jan 10.

on top of it, we are exporting too
All the kids are getting Covaxin. Boosters are almost all Covishield; those who received Covaxin 6 months ago are far fewer in number because back then Covaxin output was small.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Suraj wrote:It’s actually 9.9 million vaccinations on Thursday looking at 7pm to 7pm PIB data. Week total is 42 million and month is 45 million, just six days in. 16.5 million teenagers vaccinated since Monday.
And here we do not bat even an eyelid. Even though the numbers are eye-popping.

What has happened to us? India conducts the largest vaccination drive in human history successfully and we shiver in our dhotis!

Congratulations must be sent out to ICMR, the executive (yes the PMO, his cabinet etc etc) for supply and distribution of vaccines, five (5) (or more?) approved vaccines, rollout of vaccines, timing of vaccines, since as the acquired immunity wanes, the juveniles and the first batch of vaccinated can get their shots.

Again India has done amazing. Really really amazing. If we do not take a step back and appreciate this without doing any rona-dhona, then pox on us.

The obsession with case numbers must be junked. It is creating unnecessary panic and a total irrational behavior. Do ask Cue Bono? with lockdowns and other unnecessary curbs.

Definitely, push for vaccines to the unvaccinated but not for vaccine mandates, masks, and social distancing. But do not panic. Since what matters is hospitalization, ICUs, and mortality. We have all survived two (2) years of pandemic and this I think is the end-stage.

https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/omicron-i ... he-problem
We need to pull back from the madness involved in calling for endless vaccinations, endless movement and supply chain curbs, and endless use of public money to serve dubious ends and interests.
And here is what is on my mind and echoed well in above article.
First, no healthcare system can be economically bankrolled if policies are being driven by fear of death and disease. The economic costs are already beginning to outweigh the costs of allowing human immune systems to cope with this new threat by trial and error. Just as viruses can mutate, human immune systems can also learn to fight back and become tougher. This cannot be said openly by politicians, for they are scared of being blamed for every unfortunate death, and prefer to do the wrong things, as long as they are seen to be doing something.

Two, vaccines developed in a hurry and with inadequate testing for safety may seem to be helpful and part of the solution, but the reality is we cannot know whether the new-fangled mRNA vaccines (and many others now in the works) are doing more damage than good to human immune systems. We don’t know the long-term side-effects of asking entire populations to subject themselves to these interventions for years on end. Normal vaccine development cycles and oversight have been sacrificed this time, and the fact that there are huge pharmaceutical interests that would like the pandemic to continue does not help.

The relentless media coverage and scare-mongering panders to these pharma interests indirectly, for this pushes politicians to take risks with vaccines and lockdowns that normally would not have been approved or which cause widespread economic carnage. It is interesting that one of the safest vaccines, Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin, which is a traditional and time-tested approach to vaccines, has faced endless negative propaganda from people who should know better.
Here is my proposal:

For every positive case number reported, ask how many are asymptotic and further ask how many are in hospitals and how many are in ICUs. Yes, there is a lag in number. But ask for the data.

Till then someone screaming "1M cases over weekend in US" is just useless rhetoric. Does not contribute to rational and objective evaluation.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Manindra Agrawal
@agrawalmanindra

Our guess for peak value of Mumbai is between 30-60K cases/day (7-day average). This appears large, but hospitalizations are happening for only ~3.5% reported cases and so bed requirement will peak at ~10K, which should be manageable.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

vijayk wrote:Manindra Agrawal
@agrawalmanindra

Our guess for peak value of Mumbai is between 30-60K cases/day (7-day average). This appears large, but hospitalizations are happening for only ~3.5% reported cases and so bed requirement will peak at ~10K, which should be manageable.
Thanks for posting this.

As said before phase in India is rapidly changing - The guess that the spread will follow SA's pattern was not (not surprisingly) correct. Very small change on ground conditions can make a big difference in actual numbers.

The timing of the peak - is pretty reliable. 15 Jan for Mumbai. Same data for Delhi. Other parts of India -- End of January- Middle of February. Range Mumbai (30-60K), Delhi (35-70K), For whole India - could go as high as 800K. (The total bed requirements etc is still similar to the graph I posted here some time ago).

Key is to give local admin as much notice as possible for Hospital resources etc and logistics of distribution etc ..It is still manageable -- thanks to high vaccination rates and natural immunity -- there may be some local difficulties.

The data and methods which are used are publicly available and data is being shared at all levels - the IITH site may be a good place to get latest data/graphs.
Last edited by Amber G. on 07 Jan 2022 03:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Two graphs I think illustrate the situation in India (and how the prediction is very hard)..

Image

Number of cases still are not scary (looking at people/million) .. much below the last delta wave.

But look at the delta (growth rate)-- (using the same data)
Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile - for that "mild" case -- ("all is a hoax") ostriches -
My daughter-in-law and her staff spent entire morning calling places as far as in Oregon & Nevada hospitals to transfer/admit patients -- Her hospital in Northern California is on diversion --they have run out of beds in their hospital as well as in local hospitals..
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

whatsapp gyan, quite innovative



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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Here is an example of twisting statements for self-serving interest and then making snide personal remarks
Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile - for that "mild" case -- ("all is a hoax") ostriches -
You ask for objective, fact-based discussion, and you yourself go around with twisting statements and making snide personal remarks.

AmberG, you bring lot to the table. You have ability to understand physics and math very well. This is something you are very good at.

---

1. O-Xi-Moron virus is "mild" in terms of virulence. That does not mean all afflicted by it will have "mild" cases. Twisting the virulence factor to a local personal factor on "mild" to drive one own's goal is wrong.

2. Current data from SA, Mumbai (India) and fUK do suggest that the hospitalization factor compared to delta is 1/3rd. ICU/Mortality rate by age also indicates the virulence is mild compared to Delta.

3. The mortality rate seems to be low (we have to wait for more data here).

4. Lockdowns are useless. Vaccination beyond the 3rd vaccine needs to be also called out.

---
My daughter-in-law and her staff spent entire morning calling places as far as in Oregon & Nevada hospitals to transfer/admit patients -- Her hospital in Northern California is on diversion --they have run out of beds in their hospital as well as in local hospitals..
Datapoint of one. I just came from a hospital visit and I have another visit tomorrow. There is no such issue going around in my local hospital.
=== personal attacks deleted ===

And California was supposed to have a plan for surge capacity in all its local hospitals. What happened to that?
=== personal attacks deleted ===

Coming back, what do you propose Amber? More lockdowns? 4th vaccine? Please propose something.
Last edited by suryag on 07 Jan 2022 07:17, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Personal attacks deleted, Disha ji you will get a warning and instant ban next time
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Vayutuvan wrote:
Amber G. wrote:(India as a whole - and hot spots - parameters are drifting -- we may see higher and earlier peak - but if simple act of Masks and avoiding crowd is followed widely - can *really* help).
Is the drift related to some non-linearities that are not modeled or presumed second-order effects?
Sorry but could not make any sense out of the question -- reference to "non-linearities" and "presumed second-order effects" makes no sense in this kind of modeling. ( In any case The model is pretty well descibed (eg ,
<here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158>... "Drifting" just means parameters are rapidly changing - perhaps due to a new variant)... Hope this helps.
Vayutuvan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

Amber G. wrote:
Vayutuvan wrote:
Is the drift related to some non-linearities that are not modeled or presumed second-order effects?
Sorry but could not make any sense out of the question -- reference to "non-linearities" and "presumed second-order effects" makes no sense in this kind of modeling. ( In any case The model is pretty well descibed (eg ,
<here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158>... "Drifting" just means parameters are rapidly changing - perhaps due to a new variant)... Hope this helps.
I am talking about the stochastic nature of the parameters, i,e, there is a drift as in a stochastic process. Anyway, I better spend more time reading than spouting off on things I have no knowledge of.
putnanja
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by putnanja »

In Karnataka, the vaccines are being given in schools to the kids. It ensures good coverage as one doesn't need to depend on the kids signing up and showing up at vaccination centers. I don't see the same in Telangana, and the numbers are small compared to Karnataka.
Vayutuvan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

Amber G. wrote:
Vayutuvan wrote:
Is the drift related to some non-linearities that are not modeled or presumed second-order effects?
Sorry but could not make any sense out of the question -- reference to "non-linearities" and "presumed second-order effects" makes no sense in this kind of modeling. ( In any case The model is pretty well descibed (eg ,
<here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158>... "Drifting" just means parameters are rapidly changing - perhaps due to a new variant)... Hope this helps.
Let me quote from the abstract
This gives the model the ability to predict the future trajectory well, as long as parameters do not change.
Since the model parameters are stochastic in nature, isn't a drift expected? How well the model predicts the actual outcome depends on whether distribution last time around, say delta variant, is not the same as with omicron. My assumption is that Delta was the dominant strain last year and Omicron is the dominant variant this year. They certainly behave differently.

One cannot assume that a model that worked well for Delta will work well for Omicron as well. I hope I am clear. If not, I will go through the paper more carefully and get back.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

As with everything else, there is another side to the debate wrt COVID too. I am by no means an anti-vaxxer but sometimes I think we get carried away and do not slow down or stop to think things over.

The "Great Barrington Declaration" is one such example. A proposal put forward by three top epidemiologists and ID experts and endorsed by over 15,000 physicians and scientists, including a Nobel Laureate (although in Chemistry) from Stanford, it was immediately 'devastatingly taken down' by Fauci and Collins.

Read the declaration, then the FAQ page and then the email chain about it from Fauci and the others.

We have indeed been led down the garden path by the politicians and their cronies, right from the start. The world has suffered in many more ways than simply COVID induced morbidity and mortality. There is hardly any accounting or acknowledgement of that by most governments, esp that of the US.
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