Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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vera_k
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Parsing developing news about the B1.617.2 strain found in India. Carriers being able to transmit the disease while having some immunity to the virus explains why this new variant was able to spread in places that seemed to have reached herd immunity during the first wave.

Vaccines 'almost certainly less effective' against B1.617.2 transmission
The government's Scientific Group for Emergencies (SAGE) believes B.1.617.2 VOC could be up to 50 per cent more transmissible than one first recorded in the southeast England region of Kent last year, which is the UK's dominant strain.
“The vaccines may be less effective against mild disease but we don't think they're less effective against severe disease. But in combination with being less effective against mild disease, they're almost certainly less effective against transmission,” Prof. Harnden told the BBC.
sanjayc
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjayc »

Suraj wrote:
nandakumar wrote: I feel it would not be fair to Swarajya. Its credentials are more in tune with BRF objectives. Print clearly draws financial support from entities that have an agenda of their own. Of course ultimately it is for Suraj to decide!
I doubt SG likes me after this:
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/137 ... 93605?s=21

chetak: JEM thinks I’m too boring for Opindia . You are probably a better choice :rotfl:
Suraj, I am into communications industry. You can message me and I will give some suggestions.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/139 ... 44/photo/1

@suraj this graph should be tweeted by Modi ji. we need to hunker down for the next three months. i think we will be fighting vaccine hesitency again in Sept.

Image
suryag
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by suryag »

Suraj garu - can you please put lakhs/crores units on the Yaxis, it will help dense people like me(although i understand the units you used)
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

suryag wrote:Suraj garu - can you please put lakhs/crores units on the Yaxis, it will help dense people like me(although i understand the units you used)
How did we make you mod without passing Shekhar Gupta level math standard, hain jee ? :((

Just kidding, I'll do that next time.
Tanaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

Anecdotal experience from Latur, Maharashtra: people are queuing from 5 am in the morning for 45+ vaccine. My acquaintances were in queue since 5, were 36th in queue, but did manage to get it.

On an unrelated note people are angry and upset. The middle class never cared for govt health services as they are upset. Now they are being affected and blame the government. The states are simply washing their hands off and blaming the centre.

It will be really tough in 2024.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Atmavik wrote:https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/139 ... 44/photo/1

@suraj this graph should be tweeted by Modi ji. we need to hunker down for the next three months. i think we will be fighting vaccine hesitency again in Sept.

Image
I don't expect all of that to pan out. The current Govt Aug-Dec estimate is in this PIB image:
Image

* Covishield 75cr doses = 15cr/month
I think they won't hit 150m/month until sometime in the middle of H2. Not really failure - it's hard to scale up processes to such a large volume in a single plant. It is easier to make volume out of multiple places. That's why...
* Covaxin: 55cr doses = 11cr/month
I think they will exceed this. Currently they are augmenting a second line in Hyderabad, which has increased their capacity from 0.5cr doses per month in Jan/Feb, to 3cr this month. They opened their Bluru facility this month, and they expect all three together to reach 7cr in July/August. The same month, IIL and BIBCOL (both of whom got 70cr last Nov to expand BSL-3 facilities) come online, and that's how they reach 100m+ which they can increase to 120m without a lot of incremental effort. If the new Pune facility comes online, Covaxin can scale up to 15cr/month instead of 11cr. Then Haffkine comes online sometime between 4Q2021 and 1Q2022. That will send total higher than 150m, i.e. exceeding Covishield single line output.

Among the rest, Sputnik is the most credible figure since it is already approved and being made elsewhere. Zycov-D and Biological-E may clear Ph3 in May/June, but the latter has greater stated production ability. The rest depends on things coming together on time. Gennova is working hard but their Ph2 trials are taking longer than hoped. BB Nasal vaccine is a whole new mechanism. Novavax remains vaporware right now, to quote an IT-vity term.

I expect we'll sustain 250-300m doses/month in H2, which means 8-10m doses a day.

Some people have argued why the scaling up is not linear. Well it is not linear anywhere. If anything Indian output has been remarkably consistent in maintaining stability and not regressing. Pfizer and Moderna had multiple days/weeks long shutdowns that caused raging political disputes:
EU states express 'severe concern' as Pfizer temporarily reduces Covid-19 vaccine deliveries
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Today's official vaccination numbers:

COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 120
More than 18.21 Cr Cumulative Vaccine Doses administered so far

Over 5.58 lakh beneficiaries of age group 18-44 Vaccinated today till 8 pm

More than 17.14 lakh vaccine doses administered today


The cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered in the country stands at 18,21,99,668 as per the 8 pm provisional report today.

5,58,477 beneficiaries of the age group 18-44 years received their first dose of COVID vaccine today and cumulatively 48,21,550 across 32 States/UTs since the start of Phase-3 of the vaccination drive.

As on Day-120 of the vaccination drive (15th May, 2021), total 17,14,247 vaccine doses were given. 11,19,365 beneficiaries were vaccinated for 1st dose and 5,94,882 beneficiaries received 2nd dose of vaccine as per the provisional report till 8 P.M.
Relatively good numbers for a Saturday.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Kakkaji, thanks for keeping up reporting daily data.
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Suraj wrote:Kakkaji, thanks for keeping up reporting daily data.
Thank you for bringing clarity to a confused situation.
Atmavik
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 90781.html

Johnson & Johnson to conduct bridging trails in India, awaiting DGCI nod: Report

I thought bridging trials are not needed anymore? i had hoped we got J&J as its a single shot and storage requirements are simpler but this dosent seem to be on the road map at all
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Please read the quoted PIB documents in detail to understand how the accelerated policy works:
Links to PIB data on accelerated vaccine approval
chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

The lockdowns in Delhi, MH and the other frontline states have had a pretty immediate impact. Delhi drove down its positivity rate to a third of what it was just two weeks ago. Cases dropped from 28K to 8K.

Cases overall are still over 3 lakhs daily though definitely on a downward trend. Would it not be better if the center orders a lockdown nationally for two weeks and drive the daily infections down sharply and quickly?

These piecemeal lockdowns by states definitely work but the virus diverts itself to other states where it can infect faster. The economy is already being hurt by the local lockdowns anyways. The economy cannot fully rebound even if we are getting 3, 2 or even 1 lakh a day. I most worry about a plateau that is down greatly from the peak but still in the lakhs.

Why not bite the bullet and drive down infections decisively across the country?
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

How is the situation in UP?

A friend is saying they are under reporting massively in UP, MP, Bihar and many people are dying. Don't know if it is true or false
vera_k
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Issue with a simultaneous national lockdown is that not all locations are at the same stage of virus transmission. So the lockdown will be early in some parts, and too late in others. The best model perhaps is for district level lockdowns with the central government advising which districts to lock down, but states in control of the lockdown. The central government has to lead in this because of cases like Delhi where multiple states are involved in what to outsiders is one metro area.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

vijayk wrote:How is the situation in UP?

A friend is saying they are under reporting massively in UP, MP, Bihar and many people are dying. Don't know if it is true or false
i have many relatives in Lucknow and all of them tested -ve in Mid April but showed symptoms later. seeing this some others did not even go for testing as the centers were over crowded. I did speak to a doctor on the ground who says numbers are coming down.

another thing i noticed was only one member of the family was taking the vaccine and the other spouse waited for results. when the wave hit the whole family got it but the vaccinated person showed mild symptoms.

Prof shamika ravi points to this.

https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/ ... 2547743745
Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Update: 5/15 India Covid data:
Another day of substantial drop (by 11,000+) for new infections. (8th May as peak of 7-day average of daily new infections at 390,000)

Image

Also: More significantly: 7-day average of active infections came down for the first time since March! An important milestone -- as active infections determine load on health infrastructure.
Image

Some less painful days are ahead now. Situation for O2 and beds in hospitals etc has improved and seem to be, in relative terms, in control. Good thing is hospitalization/morbidity among those who were fully vaccinated is *extremely* low - fortunate as most of the doctors and nurses were in that group.
Painful aspect is too many people who believed in reprehensible anti-vaccine propaganda made the situation worse. (By some reliable data - 90% of hospitalization was due to the fact that people did not get a vaccine while they were eligible and lines were small).

PLEASE STAY SAFE, WEAR MASKS (N95 if possible) and AVOID CROWDS. GET A VACCINE as soon as possible.

PS: Source: SUTRA and other reliable data.

https://sutra-india.in/ has state, district and some times city level data (and projection). The projections, I believe will be reliable within 10%)

(Active infections lag a few days from 'new infections' and death data lags about 10 days form new infections.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

vijayk wrote:How is the situation in UP?
The "model computed" data/projection here, IMO, is quite reliable.. (they have good statistical methods to estimate - under count/ not reporting etc)
Image
Last edited by Amber G. on 16 May 2021 00:28, edited 1 time in total.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

chetak wrote:BB is going to open another plant at Malur in Kolar district of KAR

looks like BB has hit a massive expansion jackpot being in the right country at the right time

states are falling over to offer land to these companies, including in bengal by mumtaz bano, though one doubts very much if anyone in their right minds would want to set up shop there

"Covaxin vaccine-manufacturing plant of Bharat Biotech will be established at the earliest in Malur Industrial Area of neighbouring Kolar district," Narayan, who is the IT-BT Minister and heads the State Covid task force, said in a statement

Bharat Biotech setting up vaccine unit in Karnataka: Deputy CM
will it take 6 months?
Hope we are planning for nasal vaccine. Just spend the money.

Give pfizer approval so that they manufacture in India?
chola
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chola »

vera_k wrote:Issue with a simultaneous national lockdown is that not all locations are at the same stage of virus transmission. So the lockdown will be early in some parts, and too late in others. The best model perhaps is for district level lockdowns with the central government advising which districts to lock down, but states in control of the lockdown. The central government has to lead in this because of cases like Delhi where multiple states are involved in what to outsiders is one metro area.

Vera, if the virus were mostly contained in a few districts or even a few cities then maybe local lockdowns can work, especially we are using containment of those places. But we are rather pass that point with the virus in varying degrees everywhere.

If we need to have every region in the same state before we locked down nationally then it would mean waiting for the virus to spread. Wouldn't it be better to break the chains of transmission everywhere at once?

In business, we model foot traffic almost as a form of fluid dynamics. People (and economic activity) will flow to places that have less resistance. If you do not lockdown across the board the virus would simply flow, along with people, from a place that is locked down to a place that isn't. You cannot dam a river by creating a barrier across just half of it. It needs to be across the entire breadth.

I think the fall in cases would be dramatic in a nationwide lockdown. Without it, I fear a plateau that still leaves daily cases in the lakhs as one city in lockdown has cases go down while another without lockdown has cases go up.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Tanaji wrote: On an unrelated note people are angry and upset. The middle class never cared for govt health services as they are upset. Now they are being affected and blame the government. The states are simply washing their hands off and blaming the centre.
Upset on what? For getting vaccines or for not getting vaccines? For getting covid and recovering at home or for getting covid, ending up in hospital and recovering?

Or for the spread of wuhan virus? Why do not they blame the Chinese for spreading the wuhan virus first? :-?

Tanaji' I understand people are angry. But what exactly they are angry about?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »


Some fully vaccinated individuals have died of covid much after their vaccinations.
many others have become infected with covid even after two doses.
From the data we have: typical reliable sources (eg Cleveland Clinic):
From January first to around mid-April among hospital admissions for Covid -- , 99+% were not fully vaccinated..
Other data (eg from health care workers - 4 months after vaccines were offered ) .. 99.7% of the cases were from unvaccinated group.

From this group MRNA vaccines to be more than 97% effective in protecting against COVID-19..
(The morbidity rate is extremely small of the order of .02% or so)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

New "mask off" guidance is one of CDC’s most unforced stupidity in my opinion -- Yes, vaccinated individuals may be safer but CDC is a public health agency. It should have foreseen the impact on public behavior. It will put 60% of the population at risk. And how will any one tell that person without mask is really vaccinated.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Covid-19: Karnataka sees 7 deadliest days of the pandemic
Karnataka reported 3,500 Covid-related deaths in the week between May 7 and 13 — higher than the toll reported in any month since the outbreak of the pandemic — reflecting the crushing effect of the massive second wave on the health infrastructure since mid-April.

The death toll in the second week of May was more than double that of the first week: in all, more than 5,000 deaths have been reported in this month, 2,700 of these in Bengaluru alone.

In comparison, during the peak of the first wave in terms of casualties, seen in August 2020, the state had recorded 3,388 deaths.

The daily death average for the state so far in May has been around 400; the number is 211 for Bengaluru. Never in the past 14 months has the daily average been so high for deaths. Between May 7 and 13, the state reported 3,500 deaths, a 107% increase from the 1,689 deaths between May 1 and 6. The toll was 1,448 between April 24 and 30.
Tanaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

disha wrote:
Upset on what? For getting vaccines or for not getting vaccines? For getting covid and recovering at home or for getting covid, ending up in hospital and recovering?

Or for the spread of wuhan virus? Why do not they blame the Chinese for spreading the wuhan virus first? :-?

Tanaji' I understand people are angry. But what exactly they are angry about?

Dishaji,

You and I know that it is misplaced and unreasonable. But when you see your near ones or acquaintances dying, reason goes out of the window. When you can’t get a hospital bed for someone gasping for breath it becomes even more. And if you lose a loved one, you want revenge. All this is not helped by a government that is hopeless at PR and explaining and has left the entire media space to the Opposition. People think Sonu Sood is doing more than Modiji. Are people idiots for believing so? Yes. But it is what it is and it is what BJP has to counter which they are failing at spectacularly.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Tanaji wrote:
disha wrote:
Upset on what? For getting vaccines or for not getting vaccines? For getting covid and recovering at home or for getting covid, ending up in hospital and recovering?

Or for the spread of wuhan virus? Why do not they blame the Chinese for spreading the wuhan virus first? :-?

Tanaji' I understand people are angry. But what exactly they are angry about?

Dishaji,

You and I know that it is misplaced and unreasonable. But when you see your near ones or acquaintances dying, reason goes out of the window. When you can’t get a hospital bed for someone gasping for breath it becomes even more. And if you lose a loved one, you want revenge. All this is not helped by a government that is hopeless at PR and explaining and has left the entire media space to the Opposition. People think Sonu Sood is doing more than Modiji. Are people idiots for believing so? Yes. But it is what it is and it is what BJP has to counter which they are failing at spectacularly.
Everyone should realize this is not criticism. This is the feedback.

People are worried, scared and petrified. Lot of families are seeing unexpected deaths. There is no vaccine available in large amounts.

They want someone to take control. But it looks as if no one wants to take control,.

Even if the Govt. comes out and says, people will calm down.

1. These 20 or 30 districts are problem.
2. We are recommending lockdowns here and we are sending special help
3. This much vaccine will come in June to Dec by month the way Surj has put in.
4. This is how we are going to deliver. We plan to do 2 m per day this month, 3 m next month and 4 mil in july and 10 m per day in Aug - Dec, whatever is the plan
5. Till then, stay indoors. We addressed oxygen and remsidvir issues. If you have difficulty, please call this number for each state.
6.we are going to monitor and lock down every district that is problem going forward.
disha
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Tanaji & VijayKji, thanks.

Personally, I do not hold any candle for any political party or person. I just see that Modi & team overall is working hard & working right.

Ppl are fickle. And media will twist. 2024 is too far ahead.

India has the best PM at the worst possible time. That's all.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

disha wrote:Tanaji & VijayKji, thanks.

Personally, I do not hold any candle for any political party or person. I just see that Modi & team overall is working hard & working right.

Ppl are fickle. And media will twist. 2024 is too far ahead.

India has the best PM at the worst possible time. That's all.
I don't disagree but the common man on the road needs to understand what is going on and looking for communication
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Cipla says supply of Covid-19 drug Remdesivir catching up with demand
India's Cipla said on Saturday that its manufacturing of the COVID-19 Remdesivir drug was beginning to catch up with demand after the company sought to boost production amid a massive second wave of coronavirus infections in the country.

Backorders and complaints over low supply started moderating in the second week of May, the drugmaker said, after it began ramping up production of the antiviral drug last month.

Hospitals have faced shortages of the drug, which is being widely used and was sold in April for over 10 times its listed price in the black market.

Cipla's production of remdesivir is currently 5 times higher than the monthly output of 200,000 to 300,000 vials seen in the last wave of the pandemic last year, the company's Chief Financial Officer Kedar Upadhye told Reuters. Remdesivir was originally developed by U.S.-based Gilead Sciences Inc.

Future supply of the drug will also depend on the course of the pandemic in India but "manufacturing is no longer the bottleneck," Upadhye said.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sankum »

Amber G. wrote:New "mask off" guidance is one of CDC’s most unforced stupidity in my opinion -- Yes, vaccinated individuals may be safer but CDC is a public health agency. It should have foreseen the impact on public behavior. It will put 60% of the population at risk. And how will any one tell that person without mask is really vaccinated.
Incentivising people to get vaccinated. Here in Delhi people going for rations are being told they will get it only if they show vaccination proof.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Can anyone comment on this 2DG especially Dr. RatnaDip?

If it works, can we treat serious and moderate infections with it?
Last edited by vijayk on 17 May 2021 03:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

2-Deoxy-D-glucose has been studied at least since the 1950s. Previously tried as an antineoplastic agent because it was thought much of a cancer cell's ATP (energy source) came from 'partial digestion' of glucose. The Krebs cycle was thought to be less effective (it generates most of the ATPs). 2DG was used to partially starve cancer cells, their glucose uptake was greater than normal cells (related to low yield of ATP from Embden Meyerhoff Parnas pathway, if you must know).The 2DG was not 'digested'.

The concept is not new, but as always need clinical studies for China virus. Also would suggest 3-O-methyl-D-glucose, Fluoro glucose derivatives etc.
Last edited by sanjaykumar on 16 May 2021 08:49, edited 1 time in total.
arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

vijayk wrote:Give pfizer approval so that they manufacture in India?
Are they asking for this? Afaik, they have no plans to manufacture this vaccine in India, which means, per Suraj's twitter thread about Pfizer logistics, we'll have to import this from Belgium by air freight only, that too in limited quantities due to dry ice storage requirements. So this vaccine is, effectively, a non-starter the way things are right now.

I don't understand this constant hankering after Pfizer (not necessarily you, vijayk saar, but seeing this in SM as well) - we have two very good vaccine candidates that are already being produced at scale and have a smooth and reliable logistics tail. Not to mention a few more are coming that would fit into our logistics capabilities smoothly. So what would Pfizer do here that SII or BB aren't doing or can't do? Lastly, has Pfizer's effectiveness been tested against the dominant B.1.617 variant yet?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

vijayk wrote:Everyone should realize this is not criticism. This is the feedback.

People are worried, scared and petrified. Lot of families are seeing unexpected deaths. There is no vaccine available in large amounts.

They want someone to take control. But it looks as if no one wants to take control,.

Even if the Govt. comes out and says, people will calm down.

1. These 20 or 30 districts are problem.
2. We are recommending lockdowns here and we are sending special help
3. This much vaccine will come in June to Dec by month the way Surj has put in.
4. This is how we are going to deliver. We plan to do 2 m per day this month, 3 m next month and 4 mil in july and 10 m per day in Aug - Dec, whatever is the plan
5. Till then, stay indoors. We addressed oxygen and remsidvir issues. If you have difficulty, please call this number for each state.
6.we are going to monitor and lock down every district that is problem going forward.
Yes, something like this is needed, and was needed over the past month. Just be visible, that itself would melt many people's anger as they'll see a hardworking person trying to do his best against a once-in-a-century pandemic. At the end of the day, many people do believe Modi-ji has worked hard, but not seeing that can cast some doubts, especially in the current situation. Hence a more visible role would definitely help calm people down.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Moved to the politics thread per mod request below.
Last edited by arshyam on 16 May 2021 10:49, edited 1 time in total.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Mod Note

This is a resource thread, not a place to navel gaze about politics and the future. Please maintain focus.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sankum »

I live in a gated colony in Delhi with about 90 families and 300 + population of which 75 are above 60 i.e 25% of population.
Over last one year 14 families had atleast one member corona positive but nobody became hospitalized or died of corona.
But in this second wave more than 15 families had atleast one member corona positive in just one month and 4 people died in the span of one week from 67 to 93 age of which only one had corona positive report and rest three were treated as non covid deaths but two expired men families turned corona positive.
Four people were hospitalized on oxygen support from 39 to 65 age.
None of the first wave corona positive families were in the families who turned crona positive in second wave.
A nearby colony also of same size suffered 5 dead in second wave.
A nearby slum cluster of 2000 population which in first wave had few sick in first wave but no deaths sufferred no cases or deaths in second wave
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kati »

Sankum-ji,
similar patterns are being observed in Kolkata as well. Lower income group people are getting affected in a good number, but almost all of them are recovering too. Most of the casualties are being observed in upper/upper-middle class families.It is this upper/upper-middle class families who were hardest hit in the first wave also, but this time it is the casualty figure that is depressing. As a result this group is setting the tone of criticism against the center too.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Jarita »

Kati wrote:Sankum-ji,
similar patterns are being observed in Kolkata as well. Lower income group people are getting affected in a good number, but almost all of them are recovering too. Most of the casualties are being observed in upper/upper-middle class families.It is this upper/upper-middle class families who were hardest hit in the first wave also, but this time it is the casualty figure that is depressing. As a result this group is setting the tone of criticism against the center too.

Weight and metabolic or lifestyle disorders are established drivers.
DrRatnadip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by DrRatnadip »

Our ventilaters are finaly able to take rest after almost 2 months.. New admissions have drasticaly came down.. Many beds are now vacant in all covid hospitals.. MH is on its way to defeat this second wave..
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