Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

I have a quick q. Do you have to meet the 72 hour requirement at connecting airports too or just at the point of departure?
My flight is at 4:50 pm on Monday by Air Canada from SFO(United - I booked the ticket through United - sent me an email saying I must be tested on Friday AFTER 4:50 pm). So I arranged to be tested at 5:30 pm on Friday. But I have a connecting flight at Vancouver at 10 pm. I am wondering if this test will be acceptable by Air Canada too at Vancouver. I found a memo from Air India saying the limit is 96 hours for connecting flights. I do have a back up plan to be tested on Sunday by paying $150.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

If possible get tested on Saturday. In case of a rare false +ve, you can give a second sample and get tested again - assuming labs work 7 days in your corner, might also bring you under the 96h limit.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

For those who want a rapid test (Like Abott's Binax) this may be useful.
-- In addition to get/buy these kits - you can it get it done free in USA.
Amber G. wrote: ..
Please check such places - look on online - it should not be difficult.

Our local library also has free rapid kits available - free to pick up for the whole family - to perform the tests at home. We use it routinely after any air travel when we visit other places.
Thanks to out Governor, who made a good use of public money free home test kits were available to all for last few months.

Now, free home test kits will be coming to *all* American.
(All insured Americans to get tests paid for 100% by insurance companies.
50 million at home tests will be freely available at community sites on top of 20,000 free testing sites)

I have routinely used it , and shared with many of my friends and family - when we travel.

(The tests are valid for Airlines etc .. With app and a computer, you, if you are registered and property authorized (registration is easy takes a few minutes) you can do the test at home, in front of iPhone/camera computer (iD / QR code of the test kit etc is checked by app) you can perform the test and certificate- valid for travel - is emailed to you. (This saves money). (Of course, if you don't need a official certificate, you can perform the test for your benefit any time too).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

These are antigen tests which provide false positives. A PCR test that has CT count in the teens is what is needed.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

saip wrote:I have a quick q. Do you have to meet the 72 hour requirement at connecting airports too or just at the point of departure?
My flight is at 4:50 pm on Monday by Air Canada from SFO(United - I booked the ticket through United - sent me an email saying I must be tested on Friday AFTER 4:50 pm). So I arranged to be tested at 5:30 pm on Friday. But I have a connecting flight at Vancouver at 10 pm. I am wondering if this test will be acceptable by Air Canada too at Vancouver. I found a memo from Air India saying the limit is 96 hours for connecting flights. I do have a back up plan to be tested on Sunday by paying $150.
Things are moving pretty fast and policies may change so it goes without saying that you would have to check with the airlines etc. My personal advice, I will give to my relatives, is to cancel the trip. Traveling, even if you are fully vaccinated / boosted, in a airplane (and spending time inside airport) even with good masks etc - is just too dangerous. If you decide to travel - make sure you have *very* good quality N95 masks.
I don't know what testing policy are currently in place but before the omicron scare, what we did was to have the rapid-test kits with us, perform the test ourself, get the online certificate - valid for travel - in about an hour as long as internet is available. (Saves money - the kits can be gotten free from various places (or about $20 per kit from Amazon).
(These are antigen tests - not PCR - airline policies may change so check it, if it is still valid).

FWIW: We have done a lot of airline travel in last few months (in US, Hawaii - family members to India) but my advice to *all* family members *now* - in view of omicron - is wait till we know if it is safe to travel).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

nits wrote:Just a curious Q - only fully vaccinated people can fly - so it means carrier of virus from one country to another are vaccinated people only ?
FYI: The data is, obviously being studied ..First two cases from Honk Kong for example, were twice vaccinated (with Pfizer) but not boosted. (Prior to them going to SA and coming back). The US case (from SF) had two Moderna (but not boosted) before his trip to SA. (The emphasis on booster shot is quite high in USA). The second case in US, reportedly (per preliminary official data) was in Minnesota who flew to NYC (not directly to SA from what I understand) for a gathering. The third case in US (Colorado) - she did traveling in Africa but she was also fully vaccinated (No booster), wore masks, followed all the precautions etc.

Norway case contact tracing discovered some 40 possible cases of Omicron (from a party of 120 attended by a few SA returns). This is why my advice, till we know more, is to avoid international travel, crowded situations etc in addition to get boosted.

(I will post more here later but the preliminary data and modeling - from many different experts - looks very concerning - even for India where we probably have about 80% immunity against current variants in population)
Last edited by Amber G. on 03 Dec 2021 04:50, edited 1 time in total.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

These are antigen tests which provide false positives
The sensitivity of a good AG test is about 90% while specificity is > 99%.

(Very few false positives - but a negative test may be false - that's why we generally take it multiple times (even if tested negative) after a few days after travel to make sure).

(The second case in Honk Kong was caught after 4 days (after testing negative for first few tests) - HK insists on quarantine and multiple tests for all travelers)

These tests are rapid (results around 15 minutes to 30 minutes) compared to PCR tests which are more accurate but also take time (few hours for actual test - and normally, in home tests you have to mail the sample to lab). There are a few faster PCR tests but most of them take a few hours of lab time.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile - more and more cases are popping up - as scientists suspected that it is spreading - lockdowns can delay it a lower but it is already in.. This case (these cases) in India have no travel history to SA:
Omicron detected by sheer chance in Bengaluru doctor with no travel history
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

I know of 3 people close to me who got antigen tests in different US states who got false positives. One was at Walgreens and two of them at CVS. They both waited the next day and got a PCR test with a high CT count and were found negative. A fourth case, my nephew was tested positive at Walgreens 2 weeks back, and he also got a PCR test which confirmed positive. He's recovered now.

The caveat was that all 4 cases involved people were fully vaccinated with two doses of Pfizer or Moderna.
Last edited by Mort Walker on 03 Dec 2021 07:32, edited 1 time in total.
sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

I am not sure why the references to Ct in the above posts.

The Ct value is not a validation of the test per se but more a reflection of the sample. Different PCR tests may not be compared based merely on the Ct values.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

A high CT (cycle threshold) value should catch instances where a person is asymptomatic and has a low viral load. Antigen tests are inaccurate at least 1 out of 3 times.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

Ct is one function of a particular PCR. Thus Ct values may only be comparable for similar source specimens and using the same PCR test. I am not sure if the PCR tests me the US report the number of cycles. Perhaps they do.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

I'm not a biochemist or a microbiologist, but the protocol for PCR and Nucleic Acid Amplification Testing (NAAT) is defined for SARS-CoV-2 which includes a minimum CT value by the US FDA, WHO and other entities. Some PCR tests in the US do list the CT count. Most labs do not report, but it is somewhere in the record and can be obtained.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Amber G. wrote:FYI: Six leading experts from US and India - including Prof Manindra Agrawal will be talking about Predictive Modelling & Pathogen Surveillance on Dec 2, 2021. Prof. Agrawal will talk about machine learning techniques married with epidemiological ones for predictive modeling. If there is interest I will share a link but details many perhaps can also be gotten from usiai website.
It was an extremely good panel discussion - Rarely you see top experts in math, data science, public health and policy experts and doctors having good communications and sharing lot of wisdom/learning. December 7th is the second round it will include Dr. Randeep Guleria as one of the experts in panel.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Not surprising more and more such events are popping up - the contagiousness of the virus seem to be quite serious and so is rate of breakout cases pointing to immune escape.. I will post some of the analysis of recent data and some of my thoughts later if I get time..

Here is the story from Banglaru - about 60 participated in a conference - Masks but taken off while eating in Dining Hall - still multiple +ive results (including some confirmed as Omicron).
Omicron: Doctors' meet in Bengaluru super-spreader event?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Amber G. wrote:

Norway case contact tracing discovered some 40 possible cases of Omicron (from a party of 120 attended by a few SA returns). This is why my advice, till we know more, is to avoid international travel, crowded situations etc in addition to get boosted.
Latest count for cases (after contact tracing) in Norway is now 80-90.. (Norway is about 70% fully vaccinated)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manas »

Amber G. wrote:Not surprising more and more such events are popping up - the contagiousness of the virus seem to be quite serious and so is rate of breakout cases pointing to immune escape.. I will post some of the analysis of recent data and some of my thoughts later if I get time..

Here is the story from Banglaru - about 60 participated in a conference - Masks but taken off while eating in Dining Hall - still multiple +ive results (including some confirmed as Omicron).
Omicron: Doctors' meet in Bengaluru super-spreader event?
It would be good if esteemed forum members dont spread undue fear and panic. Very little is confirmed conclusively about this virus regarding its transmissibility and ability to cause severe disease, vaccine immunity evasion potential, sensitivity to anti-virals such as remdesivir and monclonal anti-body treatment. Whatever we have heard from scientists so far is informed hypothesis that may or may not pan out in the real world as the virus spreads around the world.

The linked article for example says this about the Doctor infected with the Omicron variant
“The Omicron-infected doctor attended it just for a couple of hours on November 20. He started showing symptoms the very next day. As we have seen so far, the virus shows symptoms after at least 5-10 days of the incubation period. Maybe he was infected with the virus even before he attended the conference,”
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

The information (about Norway) is *confirmed* - I posted it *after* the news story was confirmed with other sources including boots_on_the ground - This was *after* this report has been shared (and confirmed) with other scientists (whose day job is to collect data - and try to filter out reliable information). The news-paper story was the first source *BUT* not the only source /sigh/. Besides, the point of the story was not 'every detail to be correct' - it is just that there is another data point to estimate transmissibility of the virus.

Similarly for other news stories - if there is interest, one can read the story, do one's own research, share if there is some learning. IMO it is more beneficial than nit-picking unimportant details.

In any case, since in this forum, there is no easy way to know about the audience - their understanding, their interest , technical background, or their ability to check other sources, all I can say is: that if one 'panics' -- I can't do much about it. May be read the links given, do your own research. That may be helpful.

I have always tried to post information, which I do have expertise in, and I strongly believe is helpful - SUTRA graphs and analysis is just one example - other article are some times difficult to get elsewhere or not in public domain. (I often cross post some of my SM items still in BRF) To be clear the aim of those type of graphs is NOT to spread panic.

Also there is no easy way to gauge the audience interest (may be if there was a "like" button it may be helpful - to know if people are benefitting from my post or I am simply wasting my time on a thankless task )

But you may have a point, if there is little interest and only negative feed back, BRF may not be an ideal place for such posts.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

I was going to x-post from my SM - some recent data analysis we (and data-scientists all over the world) did. Of course, no one knows about future, but some conclusion(s) are fairly consistent - SA has fairly good data collection so confidence level is better.

But first let me post the recent SUTRA graph for scenerios for India -- already shared for wider audience.


(I will keep this post to see how accurate/inaccurate this graph was)

Image
(Graph: Credit: Dr. Manindra Agrawal)
(Note: Added later: The above has been endorsed by SUTRA team)

Peak about 150 K - around February.
But some estimates (using the same model but using parameters which I think may be most reasonable) may much higher peek (2-3 X).

Lot is unknown, but depends on human behaviour ..How fast vaccines (for remaining people, young adults, children etc) can be rolled out.. how effective we can enforce mask mandate etc).

No reason to panic but be ready - stay safe --Get fully vaccinated ASAP and follow mask mandates.

****
Let me also post (Credit Dr. Sulliman) a remarkable graph - just to see the exponential growth in Gauteng province - for the last wave . Note "summer" in SA is "winter" in India).
Image
Last edited by Amber G. on 04 Dec 2021 22:40, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

I hope India rolls out booster shot policy out (at least for older folks & HCWs) ASAP...not sure why we are sitting on this. I think the expert committee recently recommended booster shots for adults over 40 years...so far from initial data, the symptoms from Omicron seem to be mild (added: for vaccinated folks)...hopefully it will stay that way. I am not so confident about enforcement of Covid norms...more fatigue has set in and at least in my office, folks are like "Covid is now like ordinary fever" and many are wearing surgical masks (below the chin) or just a cotton mask with a huge gap near nose. Governments are in no mood to move schools & colleges to online and ask employers to do WFH if possible...seems like even Government is saying tacitly that normal life has to resume with Covid and get used to it.

Any idea if Pfizer's new Covid pill will receive EUA in US (or India)? Also is GoI recommending BB's nasal vaccine for Ph-3 trials?

Thanks Amber G for pointing it out that so far symptoms are mild mainly for vaccinated people
Last edited by Zynda on 04 Dec 2021 14:06, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

..so far from initial data, the symptoms from Omicron seem to be mild...hopefully it will stay that way.

Everyone wishes it to be true, but "mild" symptoms is based more anecdotal (and initial and mostly vaccinated people) data. This seems to be true about "unusual/different" symptoms..looking at actual hospitalization records in SA things look different and IMO unlikely. (South Africa has good source of population-level data - and their cases *and* hospitalizations (especially among unvaccinated) are rising alarmingly) - Some of the best/reputable scientists' views are similar. Hope is okay but let's prepare for other scenerios.

For Government and scientists - life may change pretty fast and they have to be busy .. many important decisions about policies/vaccines need to be taken. ( USA - which is generally quite sluggish and has lot of anti-vaxxers - has re-started/accelerated vaccine drive).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ir-stories
SA experience with Omicron
vaccine still effective preventing severe illness
mild to moderate illness
high infection/reinfection prevalence
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

USA - which is generally quite sluggish and has lot of anti-vaxxers - has re-started/accelerated vaccine drive
Image
Yet the US still has active cases of 9.6M which is 45% of the world's total. The risk of a virulent variant out of the US seems quite high.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Atmavik
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

vijayk wrote:
Awesome ... back with a bang

Awesome. Got word from parents that police has started fining people for not wearing masks in hyd.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

Atmavik wrote:
vijayk wrote:
Awesome ... back with a bang

Awesome. Got word from parents that police has started fining people for not wearing masks in hyd.
Love to see this happen at the airports. Approximately, 10% of the people were wearing their masks only around the neck based on my experience over the last week at 3 diff airports in central India in the past week. Also, observed some bad apples who refused to keep it on in the domestic flights. I felt bad for the staff having to deal with men acting like overgrown children.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/01/how-hiv ... cines.html How HIV research paved the way for the Covid mRNA vaccines
why are HIV & Cheeni virus so intricately related? Can someone explain pls!
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

Mort Walker wrote:
USA - which is generally quite sluggish and has lot of anti-vaxxers - has re-started/accelerated vaccine drive
Yet the US still has active cases of 9.6M which is 45% of the world's total. The risk of a virulent variant out of the US seems quite high.
It should be % of adult population fully vaccinated. 35% of our population is under 18 and not yet eligible.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SriKumar »

With the Omicron variant detected about 2 weeks ago and several cases now in several cities & towns in many different countries (India, USA, South Africa, and am pretty sure there are many cases in Europe as well), it is probably safe to say that the actual infection numbers, as yet undetected, are probably in the hundreds in any given region, given the very high R value (=2) which is estalished. Yet we dont hear of large # of hospitalizations/deaths due to this variant. Does this suggest that the effects are mild, atleast among those who are vaccinated.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

SriKumar wrote:With the Omicron variant detected about 2 weeks ago and several cases now in several cities & towns in many different countries (India, USA, South Africa, and am pretty sure there are many cases in Europe as well), it is probably safe to say that the actual infection numbers, as yet undetected, are probably in the hundreds in any given region, given the very high R value (=2) which is estalished. Yet we dont hear of large # of hospitalizations/deaths due to this variant. Does this suggest that the effects are mild, atleast among those who are vaccinated.
well that is the hope so far!
this guy seems to be keeping eye on omicron in MH
Out of the 6 infections in PCMC (1 woman who traveled from Nigeria has mild symptoms while 5 others have no symptoms)
1 patient in Pune City who traveled from Finland is completely stable and has no symptoms.

7 people have tested positive for the #Omicron COVID19 in #Pune ( 6 in PCMC + 1 in PMC).
While the severity of the variant is still being evaluated, its infection rate is evidently very high.
It is imperative that we strictly adhere (restart) to #CAB & ensure vaccination of all
https://twitter.com/SidShirole/status/1 ... 41922?s=20

so far anecdotal reports mostly! However increased hospitalisation in SA dictates otherwise, or it could be they are not vaccinated enough. However those in hospitals in SA also have mild symptoms only (then why are they admitted!)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://www.financialexpress.com/lifest ... d/2381179/ covishield safe as booster, increases antibody level many fold. UK study in Lancet suggests.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Deans wrote: It should be % of adult population fully vaccinated. 35% of our population is under 18 and not yet eligible.
To add - The % of eligible (adult) population (which is about 2/3 as you point out of total population) who have at least one shot in India is about 85% and about 51 % of adults are "fully" vaccinated. This is similar to US statistics (That is about 80% of eligible US population has at least 1 shot etc fully vaccinated % may be similar to US in a few weeks). % of people boosted is nearly zero, at this time.

The % of natural immunity (both vaccine induced and naturally acquired) - best estimation - confirmed by several sero surveys, is about 80%.

But considering the emergence of Omicron, this is not enough to prevent the third wave coming in February.

Also, children are no longer in safe (or low risk) category as Omicron's data clearly suggests. Vaccine acquired immunity is also waning (wrt to Omicron).. a *large* % of those discovered (travelers) all are/were fully vaccinated. How much previously naturally acquired immunity is waning is hotly studied subject right now - looking at data and running though models - but my guess at present is it is not significantly decreasing to be worried about .. we will see in few days/weeks.

This is why there is lot of emphasis on boosters, vaccinating the young etc.. USA (Canada to follow) is in very high gear to distribute boosters and getting 5+ years and up vaccinated. India, of course, is also looking at this. (all my extended family - in US, Canada has boosted / all children are (or are going to be soon) vaccinated).

It will be good if vaccination pace is further accelerated - Wearing masks in public places can blunt the beta and reduce the peak in India in a *very* significant way.
Last edited by Amber G. on 05 Dec 2021 23:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

SriKumar wrote:With the Omicron variant detected about 2 weeks ago and several cases now in several cities & towns in many different countries (India, USA, South Africa, and am pretty sure there are many cases in Europe as well), it is probably safe to say that the actual infection numbers, as yet undetected, are probably in the hundreds in any given region, given the very high R value (=2) which is estalished. Yet we dont hear of large # of hospitalizations/deaths due to this variant. Does this suggest that the effects are mild, atleast among those who are vaccinated.
Looking at data in SA, it is clear that the Omicron made it's appearance known in around August - (see β - contact rate jumped in August end )
Image

It is very contagious - Norway incident mentioned in my post before, followed by contact tracing etc.. now has about 100 cases - (suspected started by a party of about 120 people - 2 who returned from SA) -- dozens among these cases are now confirmed to be Omicron.

The "R" factor (or β estimation used in Sutra) sort of scary - contagiousness about 2 to 4.5 times delta - estimates vary but not by much somewhere between chicken-pox and measles)

Most of the "reported" (+ anecdotal) cases are "mild" - but this is true for *all* cases in fully vaccinated individuals - break out cases are mild. Reports on the ground (in SA among unvaccinated) does not show that it is more "kind"..hospitalization data lags by many days, but rates are increasing..(Just a graph below - but SA data is being studied in quite details)
(The hospitalization, especially among 0-4 years group is rising much faster than previous peaks - Hence there is a lot of push for vaccinating younger people every where)

We can all hope it is mild, but let us wait for data - No reason to panic but should be ready if we need more hospital resources .. (At present we don't)

Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Sharing latest from SA (About hospitalization):
The university hospital in Pretoria South Africa says, "Tshwane has been the global epicentre of the #Omicron Outbreak:
- exponential growth in cases in 7 days
- 19% are <9 yrs of age
- 28% are 30-39 yrs
- 80% <50 yrs
- no deaths caused by the virus so far-
- few cases require oxygen support or ICU
Link (More details): (https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-di ... y-features

Overall, it seems super-contagious, but milder pathogenic (compared to Delta) Delta (still about 95% of the world cases there is more dangerous -- but to me, for India's context - rise in younger people is a cause for concern).

In any case, let us not assume it will be mild - in fact some of the SA scientists I follow are cautioning - let us wait for more data.

Meanwhile Be safe - wear masks - (this includes young adults/children).

.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SriKumar »

THanks for hte responses. If it started in August, then that is more than enough time for thousands to have been infected in each country (RSA, India, US etc.) by now given the high R value. And if the deaths/hospitalizations are on the lower side, that seems to be a good portend/ trend in the right direction. Perhaps things will become more concrete in the next week or two. BTW, I still wear a mask in public places (even after my booster).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

tanks for the updates amber, sanjaykr & others! We had a mumbai based dr updating regularly, hope he is hale & hearty
IndraD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1 ... 45804?s=20 Israel approves 4th shot for completeness of booster, without which one loses vaccine passport :shock:
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Yes, now there is a direct evidence that Omicron was outside SA earlier (there are reported/confirmed cases in Europe found before the recent travelers were discovered. - Even one case in US has not found any history of travel to SA. But as everyone is saying this is not surprising.

Yes high 'R' value (or its contagiousness - people define R value (R0 vs Rt etc) differently and there is some confusion in understanding it by non-experts) is a concern - remember our last graph here we explicitly did not consider such case as it's prediction is not possible by math. As I said, the assumption held - No new VOC in August/September/October etc..but then this! :(..

The graph below - now endorsed by Sutra team - the assumptions are (for India):

(i) β, (contact parameter) goes up by a factor of two to 1.33 by January 2021 (ii) ρ (reach of pandemic) increases to 100% by February (iii) natural immunity is lost at the rate of 6% per month.
Current rate of vaccinations and people's habit (mask uses etc) continue as it is.

(More data may refine and give better estimate for some assumptions but here is what it is)
(There are a few studies which are little pessimistic especially coming out from a few other modelers -eg with loss of natural immunity / vaccine induced immunity but we are fairly sure that looking at SA data these values are very good -- the same data was looked and analyzed carefully)

Image

The peek is around 100-150 K.

Mask mandate (or may be weekend curfews) will be enough to reduce the value of β significantly and reduce the peek significantly. If *most* people use masks (good ones and properly) all the time in a crowd - the peek will go away - but that's unrealistic to hope for)

(We will not be able to stop the spread - (not successful in Delta wave) - ρ will reach 100% - travel bans may delay it by a week or so but will not make much difference. Masks and Covid appropriate behaviour would make a huge difference.)

So Masks for you and others! Vaccines (if not fully vaccinated) ASAP - to protect you - chances of serious illness/hospitalization will reduce significantly -- even if there are break out cases and vaccine induced immunity is not perfect.
Amber G.
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Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

IndraD wrote:https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1 ... 45804?s=20 Israel approves 4th shot for completeness of booster, without which one loses vaccine passport :shock:
For Immunocompromised, not general population.

But Israel was always very aggressive when it came to vaccinations -- and to be honest their values for hospitalization / deaths etc are *much* better than other similar countries in Europe - which were slower to act. (BTW - I think US has also approved - or may soon approve - the fourth booster for immunocompromised)
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