Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Cyrano wrote:
Are there any studies being done on such long term effects of Covid? If any knowledgeable member can post a link or two of such studies, it will help.

Thank you.
One of the most well written article about Long Covid and its effect up to date is this science dot org article..
COVID-19 takes serious toll on heart health—a full year after recovery

More technical - just published this Nature article:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01689-3
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Cyrano
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

Thank you Amber G ji !
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

For the record:
Here is another negative Ivermectin randomized trial of 500 high-risk patients... (From JAMA)
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamain ... le/2789362
Key Points:
Question : Does adding ivermectin, an inexpensive and widely available antiparasitic drug, to the standard of care reduce the risk of severe disease in patients with COVID-19 and comorbidities?

Findings In this open-label randomized clinical trial of high-risk patients with COVID-19 ... course of oral ivermectin administered during the first week of illness did not reduce the risk of developing severe disease compared with standard of care alone.

Meaning The study findings do not support the use of ivermectin for patients with COVID-19
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Also for record: Recent data/study - proof of benefit of vaccine booster for protection from Covid hospitalization in young, age 18-49, as previously documented in other countries.
(Link: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... accination

77% reduction with 2-shots
94% reduction with booster
-Consistency across age groups for reduction of hospitalization for 2-shot and booster vaccination vs unvaccinated..
2-shot 3-shot
Age 18-49 77% 94%
Age 50-64 79% 92%
Age 65+ 74% 94%
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*** Vaccine works ***
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile:
South Korea reports 110 K new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record
Hong Kong reports 6,116 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 24 new deaths
Indonesia reports 57,049 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record

...Similar stories from New Zealand, Denmark, Singapore ...
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****
Watching these (analyzing with SUTRA model to see more) ..Obviously worrisome -- combined with new lab results that BA2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants–like Delta and yet as evasive as old Omicron BA1. BA2 is surging—Perhaps WHO will upgrade it to new VOC. (They tell me, that genetically VA2 has quite a bit differences than BA1)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile: A case of polio was found in Africa - (which was polio free since 2020)..Laboratory analysis shows that the strain detected in Malawi is linked to the one that has been circulating in Sindh Province in Pakistan. Polio remains endemic in Pakistan.

https://www.afro.who.int/news/malawi-de ... o-outbreak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile: A case of polio was found in Africa - (which was polio free since 2020)..Laboratory analysis shows that the strain detected in Malawi is linked to the one that has been circulating in Sindh Province in Pakistan. Polio remains endemic in Pakistan.

https://www.afro.who.int/news/malawi-de ... o-outbreak
Maybe something to do with Bill Gates' visit to TSP. He must be worried that these guys will undo all his work in Africa :shock:
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

When does India plan to open 3rd booster shot for adults over 18? I know many many people caught Omicron this past wave and thus them folks are ineligible for another shot for next 90 days but I hope GoI is planning on opening up eventually. Further, whatever happened to the trails being conducted about mixing up vaccines i.e. using one of the recently released vaccines as a booster shot?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile:
India - Milestone: 80% of adults are fully vaccinated. (It is on track to have 70+% of the population fully vaccinated before middle of this year.).
About 96.5 % per cent of the country's adult population has been administered the first dose of COVID-19 vaccine.

Over 20 Million in the 15-18 age group have received both doses of COVID-19 vaccine, the data stated.
<link>

- US FDA lifts clinical hold on Bharat Biotech's Covid vaccine Covaxin.
( COVAXINⓇ will be evaluated as a COVID-19 vaccine candidate in the United States.)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Amber G, the recent surge in cases in many countries, is it due to Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 variants?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sai_prasad »

Zynda wrote:When does India plan to open 3rd booster shot for adults over 18? I know many many people caught Omicron this past wave and thus them folks are ineligible for another shot for next 90 days but I hope GoI is planning on opening up eventually. Further, whatever happened to the trails being conducted about mixing up vaccines i.e. using one of the recently released vaccines as a booster shot?
I am unable to locate the article I read on mint y'day so I am paraphrasing here (I will post the article if I can find it):

An official is quoted as saying they are still unsure of opening up 3rd doses to all adults as omicron is subsiding and the booster may not help if a new variant comes 8-9 months down the line.

Also it was mentioned that covaxin production is still at 55 - 60 million doses a month... this is creating issues for opening up vaccination for children (below 15 yrs and beyond)... exacerbated by the fact that they have to keep covaxin as 3rd dose for people who have taken it before and people who are still coming for their first dose seem to prefer covaxin. The newer vaccines (approved for children) are yet to come online.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sai_prasad »

It's an article in the print, not mint as I had thought.
Meanwhile, the question of whether or not precaution doses should be administered to all Indians regardless of their vulnerability is still being debated. A section of experts in the government feel that giving the third dose now — when the third wave is on the wane in most parts of the country — may limit India’s options for the future, especially if a newer variant arrives.

“One needs to understand how immunity works. For the vaccines we are using, the seroconversion is higher than say mRNA vaccines and the vaccine remains effective for longer. If we give a third dose now and pump up the immune system, we may not get the desired effect if another variant arrives eight-nine months from now. That is one side of the argument. We are still weighing all options and will go by the final decision,” said a senior government official.

Limiting third dose administration now may also make more Covaxin doses available for children who are yet to receive even the first two doses.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Zynda wrote:Amber G, the recent surge in cases in many countries, is it due to Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 variants?
BA2. (It may get it's own VOC name like Pi). Many countries, it has overtaken old variant and accounts for 90+% of all cases.

(It is worrisome as lab experiments from Japan show that BA2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as Delta and is as evasive as old Omicron cousin BA1 <link>)

It is also surging in USA (and fast), but CDC has not updated its data for almost 2 weeks..(It *tripled* in one week before .. was 3.6% but climbing fast. Expect it will be dominant by March. Omicron reinfections are possible too. So it is obviously worrying.

(Monitoring India's data too .. genetic sequencing is not as good as in some other countries and data update lags a few weeks behind)..
(Added later: Per GISAID . BA.1 accounts for the majority of the world’s Omicron cases but prevalence of BA.2 appears (IMO) to be increasing fast even in countries experiencing a decline in Omicron cases like India.

Per the latest reports, India (along with China, Pakistan, Bangladesh,Nepal, Philippines) have reported a possible predominance of BA.2 (South Africa,UK, Denmark USA etc too have seen an increase in the prevalence of BA.2)
Some East Asian region have reported higher prevalence of BA.2 but things may become clearer in coming weeks.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

sai_prasad - Welcome to brf. Thanks for informative post.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.wionews.com/india-news/biol ... oup-455092
Biological E's Corbevax gets emergency approval for 12-18 age group
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

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Tanaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

Where did 2.8B figure come from? It says people not doses
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile:
WHO statement on BA2 variant:
"BA.2 should be considered a variant of concern and it should remain classified as #Omicron. The group emphasized that BA.2 should continue to be monitored as a distinct sublineage of Omicron by public health authorities."
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

India - Vaccinations do make a difference:

India has average of about 4.4 million doses per day for last 400 days... It is going to make a jump in next few months .. as we start vaccinating 12+ in coming weeks.

Number of deaths and cases during Delta and Omicron waves.
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(Meanwhile - the actual cases are are quite consistent with the mathematical model.. Recent lab data are also somewhat re-assuring with respect to BA.2 variant -- reinfections after BA.1 - it can occur, but some what less in vaccinated and more in (as mostly) in unvaccinated so vaccination as many people as possible (especially opening up to children) in coming months should be a high priority)... More details in link : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 22271112v1

(One takeaway is per guidelines - even if you have gotten virus - still get vaccination (and/or recommended booster shot) ASAP (normally just after symptoms go away but ** verify this with your doctor ** )
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Covaxin production likely exceeds 60 million a month now - its consumption data on a trailing one month basis exceeds that figure with no significant drop in total supply.

It is however true that demographic groups sizes prevent them from opening up 12-14 right now. The 15-17 group is 75 million . The 12-14 group according to my calculation is 80 million. Covaxin production is roughly sufficient to cover one month of either group, but not both of them. As of last weekend, almost 75% of the 15-17 group has at least one dose, and 30% has two doses.

Therefore it makes sense to defer the 12-14 group until the 15-17 group is substantially done, or Corbevax is available. From my weekly thread:
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1495080325390630912
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile:

-Omicron BA.2 becomes India's dominant Covid-19 variant
(About 80% sequenced are of this variant).
South Korea (86% fully vaccinated with 60+% boosted) reports South Korea reports 171+K new by far the biggest one-day increase on record.

UK is offering 4th shot for 75+.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Nature magazine's latest issue, this week published less than 3 months after Omicron first reported has about 6 very interesting papers on immune response and results of *strong* protection provided by booster shot vaccines vs severe disease.
Link: https://www.nature.com/nature/volumes/602/issues/7898
Few takeaways -
Very good: 99.2% 3-shot vaccine effectiveness vs Omicron hospitalization in this new
2-shot 84.5% (95% CI 23,97)
3-shot 99.2% (95% CI 76,100)

- The mixed findings as to whether the Sotrovimab monoclonal antibody works against the BA.2 variant but it appears that Bebtelovimab does.

-Some reassuring data about - BA.2 variant: reinfections after BA.1 while it can occur, they are rare, mostly in unvaccinated, and are mild.
(For India - Staying on course - continue strong vaccination program is very important)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

The Indian Embassy in the US organised a roundtable on "Vaccine for All" as part of the India-US Health Partnership.

India-US partnership critical to vaccinating world against Covid:
Bill Gates Lauds India For Supplying 'affordable' Vaccines To Children Across World!

Referring to PM Modi's goals to deepen the country's ties with the US in a bid to advance scientific discovery and innovations
"This is a shared ambition and partnerships are central to making it a reality."
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

^ Re. Bill Gates, he is changing his stance on TRIPS waivers then?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waiver_fr ... f_COVID-19
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), supported the waiver.[8][19] A significant non-state opponent is Bill Gates, who is heavily involved in vaccine activism.[20][10][21][22] His views on legal monopolies in medicine have been linked to his views on legal monopolies in software.[10][21]
(OT: I am sure a lot of people remember Wintel monopoly and how it damaged FLOSS cause).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Amber G. wrote:^^^ Per the model ( chart posted above), By the end of this month, the new cases will be below 20,000 (By March 7th, it is likely to be about 10K)... Active cases is likely to be quite below 200K.

(The confidence in the model is quite high - for next 5-6 weeks..
Coronavirus Omicron variant India live updates: 14,148 new Covid cases India's active caseload declines to 1.48 lakh

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Post by Tanaji »

I seem to recall a lot of sanctimonious articles in BBC about how India had expired vaccines and was wasting them. However when it comes to their own BBC isnt quite so critical

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-60506579
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

IIT Bombay is pleased to announce Institute Talk & interaction with Dr. Krishna M. Ella, Chairman & Managing Director of Bharat Biotech International Limited on February 26, 2022 at 12 noon at the Prof. B. Nag Auditorium, VMCC. All faculty, students & staff are invited to attend.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

IIT-K predicting 4th wave in India around June 2022
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

India's active case count per million at 80 is way lower than any country in S Asia.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Manish_P wrote:IIT-K predicting 4th wave in India around June 2022
This is NOT a prediction by SUTRA's consortium by *any* shape or form. SUTRA model does not do such prediction. I have seen the headlines and stories, after seeing this above post, too and want to make sure the audience here does not get confused. so called "IITK team" - or some people are from IITK" is *not* endorsed/reported by IIT Kanpur officially from what I can see. They certainly are different than people involved in SUTRA (I have confirmed that *no one* from sutra team is suggesting such peak .)


Both data used, and math behind SUTRA model is in public domain. Do your own calculation (or ask someone you can trust) . To be clear this model does not (indeed cannot) predict when (or if) the next wave will come with scientific confidence with the data and knowledge we have.

I can say any major fourth wave appears very unlikely in India's case. UNLESS there is a new variant which bypasses the natural (and vaccine induced) immunity is a *very* significant way. Omicron bypassed the vaccine induced immunity in a very major way but this (including BA2 version) is *not* so for natural immunity. In India 90+% population has natural immunity at present.

(It is quite reassuring to see lab and research data and collection of last few months of actual data from many countries are basically confirming the validness of this model)

****
(Obviously watching situation is Singapore, South Korea and rising numbers - they do fit the SUTRA model quite nicely more of this in a later post).
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Manish_P
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Post by Manish_P »

Amber G. wrote:
Manish_P wrote:IIT-K predicting 4th wave in India around June 2022
This is NOT a prediction by SUTRA's consortium by *any* shape or form. SUTRA model does not do such prediction. I have seen the headlines and stories, after seeing this above post, too and want to make sure the audience here does not get confused. so called "IITK team" - or some people are from IITK" is *not* endorsed/reported by IIT Kanpur officially from what I can see. They certainly are different than people involved in SUTRA (I have confirmed that *no one* from sutra team is suggesting such peak .)
Yes, it seemed an attention grabbing headline and article, hence didnt post it... but in my hurry missed saying that out
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

There are many stories coming today about vaccine not working well for ages 5-11.
Many are based on this paper : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 22271454v1

Note that this is vs Omicron infections, which is not at all surprising. We still don't know vs severe disease, hospitalizations (events were so few and 95% CI are all over the place).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Amber G. wrote:^^^ Per the model ( chart posted above), By the end of this month [February], the new cases will be below 20,000 (By March 7th, it is likely to be about 10K)... Active cases is likely to be quite below 200K.

(The confidence in the model is quite high - for next 5-6 weeks..
From: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1802809
6,396 new cases recorded in the last 24 hours

India's Active caseload currently stands at 69,897
Virtually all states - there were no surprises. (Except for Maharashtra - numbers were smaller - perhaps testing strategy or better management (people's hobbits etc) contributed to make the numbers smaller.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

I was looking at South Korea, Singapore, Honk Kong data - In some of these countries the vaccination rates are very high (85% fully vaccinated with 60+% boosters in one case) yet the number of cases are exploding - near vertical rise -- sort of dreadful.

Image

Analyzing with SUTRA model gives some learnings - particularly - Kerala type "Zero Covid strategy" (vs UP Model) to tackle has it's own pitfalls. South Korea managed to keep the lid on the pandemic by aggressively isolating infections. Since January however, the numbers have blown up due to Omicron - in spited of very high vaccinations/boosters etc). Until beginning January this year, reach of the pandemic was ~10% only (they had managed to contain the pandemic to within 10% of population), ..It exploded to about 75% within few weeks.

As said before, for India things still look quite optimistic --( unless there is a very different variant emerges -- then all bets are off) we do not see any wave in near future. The natural immunity (In India it is about 90% of the population) is beneficial to us - even if we have low rate of boosters and children are still not eligible for vaccines at present our vaccination program, of course is excellent.
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Post by Pratyush »

Could you please share your opinion regarding the increase in case totals in South Korea and Singapore. Inspite of high vaccination rates.

Is it due to environmental factors. Or is it due to very high population density.
Or the vaccine formulation did not provide as much protection as other formulations did.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Pratyush wrote:Could you please share your opinion regarding the increase in case totals in South Korea and Singapore. Inspite of high vaccination rates.

Is it due to environmental factors. Or is it due to very high population density.
Or the vaccine formulation did not provide as much protection as other formulations did.
I will share data, analysis and some of my thoughts (and opinions) regarding this in some what detail in next two or more posts. This has been written about/shared with others - how good, some of these conclusions/hypothesis are will perhaps be verified in time.

One good source for background for those who want to dig deeper is IIT Kanpur's analysis published a few months ago. I have posted about this - reference can easily be obtained there or with google. It is 100+ pages analysis about "UP Model" (See note #1) and "Kerala Model" (See note #2).

Basically - "Kerala Model" was adopted by South Korea, (and Singapore, Hong Kong, NZ etc). It was quite successful till Omicron. Emphasis was to control (via testing/isolation etc) the spread above all.
"UP Model" - Not that aggressive in implanting lockdowns etc..

But please read the next posts to get details and understanding the fine points -- as it needs detail explanation and analysis.
.. Cont..
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Amber G., based on your interactions with folks in India who are in contact with higher echelons of GoI/Health Ministry etc., any estimates when GoI might start relaxing on certain Covid restrictions like mask mandates?

Anyways, appreciate you keeping us informed on latest developments in this thread.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

First - Here is some data and analysis for South Korea, Singapore, HK etc, This what all agree.

1 - Four Asian-Pacific countries have experienced severe Omicron waves, but only 1 has an extremely high death toll. Note that before this January all these countries did reasonably well.

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2. There's a marked difference in vaccination and boosters.

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3. Vaccination rates for elderly are dangerously low in HK. (I looked at graphs for different ages and it is quite remarkable - elderly are most vulnerable. Unlike India where fully vaxed are about 90% in the age group in HK this ratio is about 60-75%)

4. HK also used high percentage of Sinovac, (which has been shown to be almost useless for Omicron)
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5. Articles (study published in HK) show the reduced neutralization and marked waning of CoronaVac.

For learnings for India (and US) - 65+ or such groups should be vaccinated *as much* as possible.
Many European countries have reached 90% booster rates for this age group. US is quite below that. India should increase the booster rates for this age group (my opinion).


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... Cont..
(Will be posting about learnings of South Korea for India, (and USA)...some more data and my thoughts)..
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Posted a long post - seems to have hit bit bucket -- will post again :( .
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