Raja wrote:Next 4-5 months are going to be tense. I hope that we can avoid the 4th wave. It's not clear yet, if we will be able to. Most likely we need to quickly cover the 50+ population with a booster shot.
Predictions are hard, as Neils Bohr said, especially about future but a few points:
- IIT Hyderabad supported new website (re-incarnation of covid19india dot org ) has the data in very user-friendly form along with projections, etc. May be in a one or two weeks (when all the hype about the 'third wave' dies down) the graphs etc will be more conveniently available to general public. (They are working on it for quite some time).
We have not gotten any new significantly worse variant in August, September, October and till now November. The projection then (see my earlier posts) under 'optimistic scenario' turned out to be quite accurate.
- It is quite reasonable to think that by the end of this year we will have near 100% (90%+) adults who would have at least one vaccine. The value is now around 82%. The fully vaccinated value, let us assume will be around 65% (of all adults). It terms of total population (including children) these values are about, say conservatively 60% (at least 1) and 45% (fully vaccinated). Combining this with serosurvey data (natural immunity in population yet to be vaccinated), this is herd immunity
- Keeping this in mind, different scenarios - I am fairly optimistic - No new wave. *Worse* case scenerios - the wave (peaking around Jan/Feb 22) will still be quite small (smaller than first wave) - most likely just a ripple.
- What is most important, India has learned a lot from the second wave - our medical system is much more ready. - The vaccines works - especially for prevention of deaths and serious complications and hospitalization. (For example There will be no shortage of Oxygen - logistics for medicine distribution is *much* more robust etc).
- Meanwhile - Masks, ventilation, avoiding crowd will help tremendously - keeping beta low to keep those who are still not eligible for vaccines. Lockdowns and other extreme measures are not necessary (and will not be too beneficial)
- Single most useful and practical is *use of masks* (N95 if possible) especially if you are in a crowded indoor area.
We should rethink and keep following science as we get more data, but for next 6 weeks let the vaccines delivery go as fast it can.. new candidates (like children, booster shots) can be added but it should not disturb the speed of current operation. IMO Starting with next year (6 weeks from now) roll out the vaccinations for children as fast as possible.
(It is also good to hear that vaccine exports are starting again - Modi has said 5 Billion vaccines in his G20 Conference - Other countries are also promising more, needs a global solution otherwise new mutants will keep us busy).