Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[RajaRudra]

No one know how they got infected after remaining so much alert. Is it what the community spread means? can the virus survive many minutes in the air and infect others (though with masks), such as at a place where people has to come one by one for paying money in shop, wind coming from next house etc.?

At present - especially with highly transmissive variants - *all* experts are emphasizing the danger of transmission..

Few practical aspects (My recommendations but consistent with experts) -

Hope this helps.

Thanks for the effort and time. This post by you is going to help many here in reinforcing the focus again on important things to follow. N95 is the shield here until the vaccination.

[RajaRudra]

No one know how they got infected after remaining so much alert. Is it what the community spread means? can the virus survive many minutes in the air and infect others (though with masks), such as at a place where people has to come one by one for paying money in shop, wind coming from next house etc.?

You didn't say their living situation and closeness to neighbors.

Own 3bhk apartment in Jay Nagar. Couple doing WFH all the while. Sure, its not a crowded place. Both lazy enough not to go for walking also(our family inheritance, including me)

Eyes are often ignored parts. Many such cases and various scenarios possible. Lot of this kind of cases have many people that I know in GJ have started wearing masks within house when living in close proximity to neighbors or in multi story buildings.

These strains are much more virulent than previous ones. Few people that I know got infected that went outside only for vaccination and got infected. They live outside cities and in open area. And followed various disinfection protocols for bringing things into home.

Eyes? that's a news to me. if true, it really needs to be made aware off. Any way, now the resolution in the family whatsapp group is to use Milk powder and avoid going out even to get the milk pocket. Curd can survive for 4 days in the fridge(so once in 4 days visit to the shop).

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Who ever can live and survive WFH should do it 100 percentage. That will make at least a small percentage load is reduced in a way, and some unfortunate person who has to go out daily and got infected will get the bed.

[SandeepA]

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Some of us did some mathematical modeling (results have been shared with others) about this aspect and the results we got surprised even some of us - the new variants are *that* worry-some in that aspect. There is a tool ( available at MIT site and few other places) which can "calculate" this aspect (for various type of variants) in case one is thinking of having or attending a gathering or travel via plane etc. Point is social distancing and ordinary masks are good for germs spread through water-droplets -- coughs/sneezes/talking do not project these droplets too far and are stopped by masks -- 100 nm corona viruses in the air will hang in there for a much longer time and ordinary masks (with holes 100 to 1000 times their size) are not sufficient).

Hope this helps.

Thank you! As a thumbrule if i walk into an indoor setting like a store and can smell the products despite the mask then its not safe enough.

[sajo]

@DrRatnadip : Is the lockdown really helping Pune? I think we just completed 1 month of strict controls/pseudo lockdown, and dont see the doom and gloom dying off around here.

[darshan]

Who ever can live and survive WFH should do it 100 percentage. That will make at least a small percentage load is reduced in a way, and some unfortunate person who has to go out daily and got infected will get the bed.

One other thing missed for well to do people is helpers. Many just assume that if their helpers washed hands and wore masks then it's fine. Not really if they are coming for outside. Showers and new change of clothes or certain time of arrival to reduce exposure or utilize sun to disinfect as much as possible.

Going out to pickup essentials is okay. Just have to follow good protocol. I would do it before taking shower, in sun, and when the crowd is low. Take shower upon the return. Obviously other things unsaid applies like wearing mask, eye protection, etc. Do remember to throw eye protection into soapy water upon return.

If I were well to do person then I would also get all my potential contacts vaccinated too.

[Primus]

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Some of us did some mathematical modeling (results have been shared with others) about this aspect and the results we got surprised even some of us - the new variants are *that* worry-some in that aspect. There is a tool ( available at MIT site and few other places) which can "calculate" this aspect (for various type of variants) in case one is thinking of having or attending a gathering or travel via plane etc. Point is social distancing and ordinary masks are good for germs spread through water-droplets -- coughs/sneezes/talking do not project these droplets too far and are stopped by masks -- 100 nm corona viruses in the air will hang in there for a much longer time and ordinary masks (with holes 100 to 1000 times their size) are not sufficient).

Hope this helps.

Thank you! As a thumbrule if i walk into an indoor setting like a store and can smell the products despite the mask then its not safe enough.

Absolutely. N95 masks have to be 'fit-tested' here in the US before you are allowed to use them, if you have a beard, you just cannot wear these as an air-tight seal cannot be produced. In that case, you actually may harm yourself by creating a suction of air into your nose/mouth through the sides of the ill-fitting mask instead of through the fabric in front. The way fit-testing is done is by spraying a scented aerosol around your face and checking if you can smell it. If you can, the mask is not fitting and you need a different size or you adjust it by pinching the top etc.

For most people, a double mask of the regular type is far better than a poorly-fitting N95, since that allows better filtering of the virus particles through the (now) six-ply layers of the two masks.

Remember, the idea of the mask is to get the air you breathe to flow THROUGH the filtration system the fabric of the mask creates rather than through the sides, under the mask, which is what happens with poorly fitting N95, as that channel is the path of least resistance.

In the case of the non-N95 masks you may still smell things through them, but they are quite capable of filtering out virus particles to a large extent.

[darshan]

What Primusji said is something that people miss all the time. Especially well to do people who can get N95 masks for daily use.

It's very easy to misuse and it's better to have double masks if not versed on the usage of N95 mask for medical use.

I personally like two surgical masks with nano fiber material in the middle. The breathing is sustained pretty well through the front. I have to work in the closed areas with many mask pretenders. So far have survived well by keeping few things in mind: shower as soon as coming home, don't take off masks while driving back home, don't touch anything on face while not at home, do the laundry with mask on after leaving clothes out in garage for days, wash anything that comes into the house, etc. My actual sanitizer usage is very low compared to usage of soap.

[Amber G.]

Allow me to post something I shared with my contacts and in social media - some time ago. I used "cut-and-paste" the Hindi language as it is convenient while copying my original message, but the link (and app) which is shared is in many languages - including English . So one can read all in the link I shared.
.

Source is an excellent resource: (an online course from MIT) - quite understandable and free links given here.
The Physics of Covid 19 Transmission

The link for the app to use is in the message - One can set the type of room /airplane/ etc , amount of crowd, type of variants, time you spend, social distancing etc to get idea about the risk.

कोविड-19 से आतंरिक बचाव हेतु दिशानिर्देश:
(This particular app may be helpful to many:
A method to assess Covid-19 transmission risks in indoor settings-
** The application is both in Hindi and English to be useful )
https://indoor-covid-safety.herokuapp.com/?units=metric...
कोविड -19 के प्रसार को कम करने के लिए, आधिकारिक सार्वजनिक स्वास्थ्य दिशानिर्देशों द्वारा: व्यक्ति-से-व्यक्ति की दूरी (6 फीट / 2 मीटर), ठहराव के समय (15 मिनट), अधिकतम ठहराव (25 लोग), या न्यूनतम वेंटिलेशन ( प्रति घंटे 6 वायु परिवर्तन), की सीमा तय की संस्तुति की गयी है।
कोविड -19 के हवाई प्रसारण के लिए वैज्ञानिक प्रमाण बढ़ रहे हैं । यह हवाई प्रसारण संक्रामक हवा के बंद स्थानों के आदान प्रदान की वजह से होता है। जबकि सार्वजनिक स्वास्थ्य संगठन हवाई प्रसारण को स्वीकार करने लगे हैं, उन्हें अभी भी सभी प्रासंगिक चर को शामिल करते हुए सुरक्षा दिशानिर्देश को प्रदान करना शेष है ।
मार्टिन बजांत और जॉन डब्लू. ऍम. बुश के सहयोग से कासिम खान द्वारा विकसित यह ऐप, आतंरिक स्थानों के लिए सुरक्षित एक्सपोज़र समय और ठहराव स्तर की गणना करने के लिए एक सैद्धांतिक मॉडल का उपयोग करती है। कमरे के विनिर्देशों, वेंटिलेशन और निस्पंदन दरों, चेहरे के मुखोटे का उपयोग, श्वसन गतिविधियों और जोखिम सहिष्णुता (अन्य टैब में) को समायोजित करके, आप देख सकते हैं कि विभिन्न आतंरिक स्थानों में आतंरिक कॉवेड -19 ट्रांसमिशन को कैसे कम किया जाए।
एप्लिकेशन के पीछे के विज्ञान को भी मुफ्त में बड़े पैमाने पर ऑनलाइन पाठ्यक्रम (ऍमओओसी) एडेक्स पर: 10.S95x कोविड -19 के संचरण का विज्ञान' के नाम से पढ़ाया जाता है।
(Link: https://www.edx.org/course/physics-of-c ... ansmission)
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प्रायः पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न:
6 फीट / 2 मीटर की दूरी पर्याप्त क्यों नहीं है?
6 फीट (या 2 मीटर) की दूरी आपको, फेस मास्क (मुखौटे) की तरह ही संक्रमित व्यक्ति द्वारा खांसने वाले बड़े बूंदों से बचाती है; हालाँकि, यह हवा में फैली और पूरे कमरे में मिश्रित संक्रामक हवा के संचरण से रक्षा नहीं करती है। घर के अंदर, लोग 6 फीट की तुलना में 60 फीट की दूरी पर हवाई संचरण द्वारा संक्रमड से ज्यादा सुरक्षित नहीं हैं।
क्या प्रसारण के अन्य तरीके हैं?
हवा द्वारा फैलने को कोविड-19 के फैलने का मुख्य काराण माना जाता है, लेकिन अन्य तरीके भी संभव हैं | जैसे `संक्रमणीय पदार्थ': सतहों पर सीधे संपर्क के माध्यम से, 'बड़ी-बूंदो का ट्रांसमिशन': खाँसी या छींकने के माध्यम से , और `छोटी-दूरी के हवाई संचरण': एक लंबे समय से अधिक संक्रमित व्यक्ति के सांसों के संचरण से। हालाँकि बाद के दो तरीके महत्वपूर्ण हो सकते हैं, वे फेस मास्क पहनने पर काफी हद तक समाप्त हो जाते हैं; फिर भी हवाई प्रसारण का जोखिम बना रहता है।
क्या हम वास्तव में एक अच्छी तरह से मिश्रित कमरा मान सकते हैं?
आतंरिक खली स्थान में हवा को मिश्रित करने के लिए कई योगदानकर्ता हैं, जिसमें उछाल-चालित प्रवाह (हीटर, एयर कंडीशनर या खिड़कियों से), पंखो और छिद्रों से दबाबदार हवाई संवहन, और मानव गतिविधि और श्वसन शामिल हैं। जबकि इसके कुछ अपवाद भी हैं, जैसा कि पेपर में चर्चा की गई है, कमरों के अच्छी तरह से मिश्रित होने की धारणा को व्यापक रूप से हवाई रोग संचरण के सैद्धांतिक मॉडलिंग में उपयोग किया जाता है।
क्या ये दिशानिर्देश बहुत बड़ी जगहों पर लागू होते हैं ?
कॉन्सर्ट हॉल, स्टेडियम या अन्य बड़े हवादार स्थानों में जहाँ कि बड़ी संख्या में लोग होते हैं, हवाई प्रसारण का जोखिम ज्यादा है और इसको दिशानिर्देश उचित रूप से कवर करते हैं। हालांकि, जब मास्क या फेस शील्ड नहीं पहने जाते हैं, तो साँस के माध्यम से छोटी दूरी के प्रसारण का एक अतिरिक्त खतरा होता है, पेपर में इसका अनुमान लगाया गया है।
छत की ऊंचाई क्यों मायने रखती है?
छत की ऊंचाई कमरे की कुल मात्रा को प्रभावित करती है, जो हवाई संक्रमण (# हवाई संक्रमण प्रति यूनिट मात्रा) की एकाग्रता का अनुमान लगाने के लिए आवश्यक है। कमरे की कोविड -19 संचरण जोखिम का अनुमान लगाने के लिए इस एकाग्रता की आवश्यकता होती है।
मुझे अपने ACH / MERV नंबर पता हैं। मैं उन्हें कहां दर्ज कर सकता हूं?
यदि आपको अपने निवेश (इनपुट) पर अधिक नियंत्रण की आवश्यकता है, तो वेबपेज के शीर्ष पर ड्रॉपडाउन का उपयोग करते हुए एडवांस मोड पर स्विच करें।
N95 श्वासयंत्र में 99% दक्षता क्यों है?
N95 श्वासयंत्र 0.3 माइक्रोन के कणों के लिए कम से कम 95% निस्पंदन दक्षता रखते हैं, जोकि कोविड -19 के हवाई संचरण की बूदों आकार से 10 गुना छोटा माप है। अत: बड़ी बूंदों के लिए, N95 श्वासयंत्र और भी अधिक कुशल हैं, लगभग 100% कुशलता स्तर तक पहुंचते हैं।
वास्तव में ऐप की गणना क्या है?
एप्लिकेशन एक आतंरिक स्थान में अधिकतम स्वीकार्य संचयी जोखिम समय, जोकि कमरे के अधिभोग और समय का गुडन है, की गणना करता है। प्रति संक्रमित व्यक्ति संचरण की अपेक्षित संख्या ("इनडोर प्रजनन संख्या") को चुने हुए जोखिम सहिष्णुता से कम करके कोविड -19 के प्रसार को सीमित किया जाता है। ऐप पेपर में लिखित अन्य संबंधित मापदंडों की भी गणना करती है, जोकि कुछ पाठकों के लिए रोचक हो सकते हैं।
सापेक्ष संवेदनशीलता sr: 1.07
बाहरी वायु अंश Zp: 0.67
एरोसोल निस्पंदन दक्षता pf: 0.01
श्वास प्रवाह दर Qb: 0.49 m³/hr
छोड़ी गई हवा Cq की संक्रामकता: 72.00 quanta/m³
मास्क द्वारा पास होने की संभावना pm: 0.145
कमरे का आयतन V: 1,613 m³
वेंटिलेशन (बाह्य) प्रवाह दर Q: 3,227 m³/hr
वापसी (पुनर्संचरण) प्रवाह दर Qf: 1,613 m³/hr
वायु निस्पंदन दर (λf): 0.01 /hr
आर्द्रता-समायोजित एरोसोल त्रिज्या रूफ r̅eff: 2.00 μm
आर्द्रता-समायोजित वायरल निष्क्रियकरण दर λv: 0.36 /hr
प्रभावी एयरोसोल (हवाई संक्रमण) जमाव की गति vₛ(r̅eff): 1.85 m/hr
एकाग्रता छूट दर λc: 2.57 /hr
एयरबोर्न ट्रांसमिशन (हवाई संक्रमण) दर βₐ: 0.94 /hr ÷10,000
ठहराव (अध्यावास) बनाम एक्सपोज़र (उजागर) समय
अधिकतम एक्सपोज़र टाइम τ (घंटे)
अधिकतम ठहराव (अध्यावास) N
क्या यह मॉडल स्थानीय आबादी में संक्रमण की व्यापकता पर विचार करता है?
स्थानीय आबादी में संक्रमण के प्रसार के प्रभाव को उन्नत मोड में देखा जा सकता है। वहां, अन्य पैरामीटर्स टैब में, कोई भी आबादी में प्रतिरक्षा के प्रभाव का भी आकलन कर सकता है, जोकि टीकाकरण या पिछले संक्रमण से उत्पन्न हो सकती है।

[Tanaji]

This ward by ward method is not practical currently given the shortage of vaccines.

My close relatives finally got their second shot in Mumbai today. They queued at 0730 and finally were out by 1230 pm. All are 65+. Apparently the centre got only 100-150 shots. And people were queuing since 6 am. The centre actually opened at 11am. There were 80 people ahead of them.

At least they offered them biscuits and water….

I fear the vaccination sites are massive super spreader events in itself.

Cowin site shows zero availability so no chance of taking an appointment for 45+.

[DrRatnadip]

@DrRatnadip : Is the lockdown really helping Pune? I think we just completed 1 month of strict controls/pseudo lockdown, and dont see the doom and gloom dying off around here.

It certainly helped in controlling daily cases.. System was on verge of collapse , now its very much managable..

[vera_k]

Insulating material in ceiling, ducts led to Serum building blaze spread

Till now, we have not found anything that points to sabotage or a deliberate act to be behind the fire.

[darshan]

GTU develops a method to identify real and fake Remdesivir
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/05/05/ ... emdesivir/
Gandhinagar: Gujarat Technological University (GTU)’s Graduate School of Pharmacy (GSP) has developed a method to check Remdesivir drug through High Pressure Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) as per the guideline of International Conference on Harmonization. GTU will offer this service to various hospitals and organizations for free of cost. According to Vice Chancellor Dr. Navin Sheth, the technic developed by students Malay Pandya and Nisarg Patel under the guidance of Dr. Kashyap Thumar, will help in identify real and fake Remdesivir drug.

[Amber G.]

@DrRatnadip : Is the lockdown really helping Pune? I think we just completed 1 month of strict controls/pseudo lockdown, and dont see the doom and gloom dying off around here.

It certainly helped in controlling daily cases.. System was on verge of collapse , now its very much managable..

Pune is in it's way down (finally the blue line decided to follow the orange line .. )...

This is from city level data/prediction from "super-model" on 5/1 for Pune.

So is Mumbai ..

(Note these are seven days averages .. so are different than daily numbers)

(We do have many weeks of hard days ahead so please stay safe..Use mask(s), avoid crowds)

[Suraj]

I dug into the logistics of the Pfizer vaccine and posted about it. It became an article too:
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1389808837486530565
https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/pfizer-va ... t-in-india

[Kakkaji]

COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 110

India’s Cumulative Vaccination Coverage exceeds 16.24 Cr doses

More than 2.30 lakh beneficiaries of age group 18-44 Vaccinated in the last 24 hours

More than 18.9 lakh vaccine doses administered in the last 24 hours

The number of 18-44 group doses is increasing every day. That is a good trend.

[Suraj]

Yes, it indicates that the state driven procurement is ramping up, faster in some states than others, and these are being utilized. Ideally in about a week the vaccination rate will increase to 2.5 million a day once again and then rise further through end May as supplies improve.

As of today 131 million people in India have received at least a single dose. In the US, the number is 148 milion, though the latter started in December while we began in March, up to which point only a limited number of HCWs had been vaccinated.

[chola]

It certainly helped in controlling daily cases.. System was on verge of collapse , now its very much managable..

Pune is in it's way down (finally the blue line decided to follow the orange line .. )...

This is from city level data/prediction from "super-model" on 5/1 for Pune.

So is Mumbai ..

(Note these are seven days averages .. so are different than daily numbers)

(We do have many weeks of hard days ahead so please stay safe..Use mask(s), avoid crowds)

Thanks Amber for the charts.

And we are privileged to read Dr.Ratnadip reports here.

I have come around to accepting that we need a nation-wide lockdown to repair and re-organize our institutions not just our health care system.

There needs to be a concerted effort to break the chain of transmissions as quickly and as broadly as possible. Having lockdown piecemeal is just rerouting the flow of infections from one state to another instead of turning off the tap.

We cannot vaccinate our way out of this second wave (even as MH's cases has gone down Karnataka jumped up to the same level and now Bihar has people dying in hospital from lack of oxygen.) But vaccines can blunt the third wave. Every resource must be thrown into preparing for and even preventing that third wave.

But one needs to give the health care system, the states and the center and all their institutions respite from fighting for their lives every day, every minute, everyvsecond in the current situation. You need break the chain no matter what so that in two weeks we can have space and time to prepare.

[srai]

...

Eyes? that's a news to me. if true, it really needs to be made aware off.

...

[Shameek]

Is there any site/app that consolidates hospital bed availability for each town/city? I am hearing of many people that have gone to 5-6 hospitals to try and find a bed and all that travel is just time lost. If there is a way to know before leaving home that a certain hospital is full or out of oxygen it can save precious time and confusion/panic.

[Kakkaji]

News about one private hospital group offering vaccination nationwide (subject to availability of doses);

News about Apollo Hospitals offering Covid vaccination

Will vaccinate those above 18 yrs from May 1; Covaxin to cost Rs 1200 & Covishield Rs 800 per dose: Shobana Kamineni, Apollo Hospitals Grp

[Kakkaji]

Any word on what happened to the 15 lakh doses of Sputnik V that were shipped from Russia last week?

Even though this vaccine has stricter cold chain requirements (-16 to -18 degrees IIRC), Dr. Reddy's, with their Pharma distribution experience, should be able to supply them quickly to at least the private hospitals in metro cities. 15 lakh doses can be used up in a day in 4 metros + Bengaluru + Hyderabad.

So why are Dr Reddy's not distriburing them yet? Is it the price?

[Kakkaji]

After Air India, IndiGo and Vistara roll out Covid-19 vaccination for staff

Air India announced plans on Tuesday to vaccinate all employees by May-end, IndiGo has commenced vaccination at 39 stations. All its employees in Pune and Chandigarh have received the first jab, IndiGo said. GoAir aims to vaccinate most of its employees by May-end too. AirAsia India said it has carried out drives in Gurugram, Bengaluru and Delhi.

“We are tying up with hospitals and government agencies across our network and our frontline staff is getting vaccinated progressively,” said a Vistara spokesperson.

“Vaccination drives have already commenced aggressively across 39 stations and we are in the process of including more stations. Our staff can access vaccines at government or private hospitals through our corporate tie up programme. We are also providing time off to our crew upon vaccination as per DGCA guidelines,” IndiGo said.

Airports Authority of India is also organising vaccination camps at airports. Over 2,000 employees and their family members received doses at a camp in Guwahati airport on Monday.

Among international carriers Etihad and Singapore Airlines vaccinated all their pilots and cabin crew in February.

Last month Qatar Airways operated world's first fully vaccinated flight with all 188 passengers, two pilots and eighteen cabin crew having received the vaccine.

[Suraj]

Any word on what happened to the 15 lakh doses of Sputnik V that were shipped from Russia last week?

Even though this vaccine has stricter cold chain requirements (-16 to -18 degrees IIRC), Dr. Reddy's, with their Pharma distribution experience, should be able to supply them quickly to at least the private hospitals in metro cities. 15 lakh doses can be used up in a day in 4 metros + Bengaluru + Hyderabad.

So why are Dr Reddy's not distriburing them yet? Is it the price?

1.5 lakh doses, not 15 lakh (1.5 million). It's a pretty small number and they probably want to have the readiness of 2nd dose from Dr Reddy's production confirmed before utilizing first doses. The Sputnik 3nd dose interval is 21 days so they need to know local supply is available by then.

[Manas]

1.5 lakh doses, not 15 lakh (1.5 million). It's a pretty small number and they probably want to have the readiness of 2nd dose from Dr Reddy's production confirmed before utilizing first doses. The Sputnik 3nd dose interval is 21 days so they need to know local supply is available by then.

The press release from Reddy's indicated that they will use these doses to test out their supply chain/cold chain mechanisms kind of "prime the pump". I guess these will eventually be administered to people in the next week to 10 days. Not sure when the locally manufactured doses will hit the supply chain. I think 4-5 companies in India will manufacture Sputnik. If that can contribute 1M doses per day then the daily vaccine supply will be close to 5M across Covishield, Covaxin and Sputnik.

[sanjayc]

Is there any site/app that consolidates hospital bed availability for each town/city? I am hearing of many people that have gone to 5-6 hospitals to try and find a bed and all that travel is just time lost. If there is a way to know before leaving home that a certain hospital is full or out of oxygen it can save precious time and confusion/panic.

app called verifiedcovidleads.com for Delhi NCR Covid resources such as oxygen, medicines, plasma, hospital beds, food services, ambulances etc. A team of 15 volunteers is verifying the leads every 3 hours.

[IndraD]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/us-back ... dwide.html
U.S. backs waiving patent protections for Covid vaccines, citing global health crisis

The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it supports waiving intellectual property protections for Covid-19 vaccines, as countries struggle to manufacture the life-saving doses.

“This is a global health crisis, and the extraordinary circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic call for extraordinary measures. The Administration believes strongly in intellectual property protections, but in service of ending this pandemic, supports the waiver of those protections for COVID-19 vaccines,” United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai wrote in a statement.

“As our vaccine supply for the American people is secured, the Administration will continue to ramp up its efforts — working with the private sector and all possible partners — to expand vaccine manufacturing and distribution. It will also work to increase the raw materials needed to produce those vaccines,” the statement added.

Stocks of major pharmaceutical companies that have produced vaccines, including Moderna, BioNTech and Pfizer, dropped sharply after news of the potential waivers first broke. Pfizer ended its trading day flat, while Moderna lost 6.1%; Johnson & Johnson shed a modest 0.4%.

[IndraD]

“This is a huge misstep by the Biden Administration that will do nothing to increase vaccine distribution and will endorse China’s ability to piggyback on U.S. innovation to further its vaccine diplomacy aims,” Clete Willems, a former attorney at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, said of the decision.

“A solution more in line with the Administration’s stated objectives of improving U.S. competitiveness and keeping jobs in America would be to produce and export vaccines from the United States,” said Willems, who worked under both the Obama and Trump administrations.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/us-back ... dwide.html

[Tanaji]

Are patents really what is holding up vaccines being available in plenty? I don’t think so, it’s a massive shortage of production capacity. The likes of AZ are already at cost until the pandemic rages through Gavi.

Even if the Mylapore Mami suspends patents, it will be only for duration of the pandemic similar to the Gavi thing.

@Amberji, good to have you back and missed your posts

[Amber G.]

Is there any site/app that consolidates hospital bed availability for each town/city? I am hearing of many people that have gone to 5-6 hospitals to try and find a bed and all that travel is just time lost. If there is a way to know before leaving home that a certain hospital is full or out of oxygen it can save precious time and confusion/panic.

app called verifiedcovidleads.com for Delhi NCR Covid resources such as oxygen, medicines, plasma, hospital beds, food services, ambulances etc. A team of 15 volunteers is verifying the leads every 3 hours.

To add:
posted link(s) from DST (GoI sponsored) last year (a year ago) which consolidated data about beds/ventilators/doctors/ at hospital/city/state level (with projections) - check out my old posts but if I find the link (or the latest official site, I will post it again - it was something like https://covid19medinventory.in/) (Will verify it to see if it still works or if there is a current site)

Meanwhile things are a little hectic - but I am finding these sites are extremely useful (I am in US but do get phone calls from people in India):
- Excellent site - run by a group of volunteers and financed by IIT alums, and UP Government, primarily for UP and Delhi area (but other places are being added it)
https://indiacovidsupport.com/

Or Tweet to PM/CM, or Harshvardhan or DST
Other sites I will place them here

[Amber G.]

Update (5/5) on the previous graph with latest (today's data).
Previous graph (see my post a few pages back)


Zoomed-in version with updated with latest data:



Are we reaching a peak?

(We will know for sure, if this is really a peak in a few days when we add more data)
Note: We are using 7 day moving average - (Too much variation for day to day data)
(I see some-place .. 391,184 cases (but few states are not included in this count). Perhaps 410,000-420,000 today)
(The peak projected last month was May 5-11 which looks consistent with the data, the height of the peak - we were not sure and the actual value is about twice if one looks at the graph of last month - but there were lot of uncertainties. Model IMO is quite good. This model was used for US and a few other countries and the fit is quite remarkable).

(Credit for graph : Our 'super-modeling team' )

[srai]

Pfizer Reaps Hundreds of Millions in Profits From Covid Vaccine

The company said its vaccine generated $3.5 billion in revenue in the first three months of this year.
...

As of mid-April, wealthy countries had secured more than 87 percent of the more than 700 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines dispensed worldwide, while poor countries had received only 0.2 percent, according to the World Health Organization. In wealthy countries, roughly one in four people has received a vaccine. In poor countries, the figure is one in 500.
...

The World Health Organization figures make clear that Pfizer has provided minimal help to the world’s poorest countries.
...

Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca both vowed to sell their vaccines on a nonprofit basis during the pandemic. Moderna, which has never made a profit and has no other products on the market, decided to sell its vaccine at a profit.

...

But BioNTech received substantial support from the German government in developing their joint vaccine. And taxpayer-funded research aided both companies: The National Institutes of Health patented technology that helped make Pfizer’s and Moderna’s so-called messenger RNA vaccines possible. BioNTech has a licensing agreement with the N.I.H., and Pfizer is piggybacking on that license.
...

The vaccine is expected to keep generating significant revenue for Pfizer and BioNTech, especially because people are likely to need regular booster shots. Pfizer said on Tuesday that it expects its vaccine to generate $26 billion in revenue this year, up from its previous estimate of $15 billion. The company has been signing supply deals with governments for more shots to be delivered in the next few years, including options for Canada as far out as 2024.

...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/us-back ... dwide.html
U.S. backs waiving patent protections for Covid vaccines, citing global health crisis

The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it supports waiving intellectual property protections for Covid-19 vaccines, as countries struggle to manufacture the life-saving doses.

“This is a global health crisis, and the extraordinary circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic call for extraordinary measures. The Administration believes strongly in intellectual property protections, but in service of ending this pandemic, supports the waiver of those protections for COVID-19 vaccines,” United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai wrote in a statement.

“As our vaccine supply for the American people is secured, the Administration will continue to ramp up its efforts — working with the private sector and all possible partners — to expand vaccine manufacturing and distribution. It will also work to increase the raw materials needed to produce those vaccines,” the statement added.

Stocks of major pharmaceutical companies that have produced vaccines, including Moderna, BioNTech and Pfizer, dropped sharply after news of the potential waivers first broke. Pfizer ended its trading day flat, while Moderna lost 6.1%; Johnson & Johnson shed a modest 0.4%.

How much more profits from pandemic?

[yensoy]

I say, don't suspend patents. Just tell the big boys, this is what we will pay, take it or leave it. And your future business in the country depends on whether you accept or not. Say it in a nice way. Make it a decent sum, about a dollar or 2 per dose which is well worth it. Minister will need to talk to local CEOs. Nothing written. They will quickly fall in line.

[Amber G.]

For perspective: In Europe's "third wave" of COVID. The dominant strain is B.1.1.7, the so-called UK variant. In many of the countries mentioned, the infection and death rates per million population are 10 or more times higher than in India. Source:

https://worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[KLNMurthy]

He was 83, and only practiced 20 years?

How did you get that? Looks like he is still working at the time of his death.. During Vietnam War he was posted in Okinawa with US Army. That makes it more than 50 years.

I took another look at the linked article. It says

... has been in practice for more than 20 years.

When I first read it, I missed the “more than “ part. So he could have been practicing for over 50 years as you say.

But it’s strange that the article says “more than 20” in such a case.

[Amber G.]

Update (5/5) on the previous graph with latest (today's data).


Zoomed-in version with updated with latest data:


Are we reaching a peak?
(Credit for graph : Our 'super-modeling team' )

I (and few others) have been sharing these graphs for sometime ..I think/hope a good user-friendly link to share this should get in the public domain...
Meanwhile I saw an excellent piece from republic TV - who has Prof - Vidyasagar himself explaining these graphs for some cities etc.. (Worth watching - Some of the graphs from this presentation, I have put in this dhaga but hope someone summarizes his numbers in a separate post for people to see )
https://youtu.be/2CbhOyQOA5Y

[Aditya_V]

How did you get that? Looks like he is still working at the time of his death.. During Vietnam War he was posted in Okinawa with US Army. That makes it more than 50 years.

I took another look at the linked article. It says

... has been in practice for more than 20 years.

When I first read it, I missed the “more than “ part. So he could have been practicing for over 50 years as you say.

But it’s strange that the article says “more than 20” in such a case.

The word "practice " here could refer to him having a small independent clinic after ending his career in big hospitals

[arshyam]

Update (5/5) on the previous graph with latest (today's data).
Previous graph (see my post a few pages back)

I have been tracking Prof Agrawal's tweets (where he shares his graphs) and the fit is indeed remarkable. What gives hope is that multiple cities/states are now trending down, so that should ease some pressure off healthcare infra.

However, I wonder what this graph looked like in the February-early March timeframe? I looked around, but couldn't find any older charts. The reason for my Q is rather obvious, but will state it for clarity: did this model predict this steep spike in April? Last I recall, per this model and your earlier posts, this thing should have died out in February, but it didn't. I, for one, had set a lot in store by this prediction (my pandemic fatigue played a role too), but turned out to be so far off the mark. One wonders if the govt felt the same way too?

[srin]

Please share that link.

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/covid_vaccinat ... /faqs.html

The link above suggests wait of 4-8 weeks.

Is it necessary for a COVID-19 recovered person to take the vaccine? And if I had COVID-19 infection and was treated, why should I receive the vaccine?

Yes, it is advisable to receive complete schedule of COVID-19 vaccine irrespective of past history of infection with COVID-19. This will help in developing a strong immune response against the disease. Development of immunity or duration of protection after COVID-19 exposure is not established therefore it is recommended to receive vaccine even after COVID-19 infection. Wait for 4-8 weeks after recovery from COVID symptoms before getting the vaccine.

[Atmavik]

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-tur ... it/652673/

India turns down US proposal to send Covid ‘Strike Team’, says never asked for it
US plan to send battlefield oxygen generators has also been abandoned over 'compatibility issues' as it would have meant US soldiers operating them.

Meanwhile, Germany has already stationed 12 of its armed forces paramedics in India to help train an Indian team to operate a large system being brought on board two aircraft, capable of generating 4,00,000 litres of oxygen a day.

“There are some other technical teams, which have come in or will come in later. They will train, help set up and leave,” the source quoted above said.

my comments :
the print always has an editorial slant but SNEHESH ALEX PHILIP is usually pretty good. i dont get the logic here (bhai.. treat it as Yudh Abhyas)

[Atmavik]

https://twitter.com/IAF_MCC/status/1389869418721677313

An IAF C-17 is engaged in the airlift of cryogenic oxygen containers from Perth, Australia to Panagarh Airbase, while an IL-76 arrived at Singapore earlier today, for ferry of oxygen cylinders to the country.


how much o2 does this container hold ?