Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 02:05

CDC: The coronavirus is likely to spread in the U.S.

The CDC is warning businesses and schools in the US to start preparing for spreading coronavirus.

CDC warns Americans to prepare for 'significant disruption'

The CDC said Tuesday that it appears inevitable that COVID-19 will spread in U.S. communities. Officials say it’s no longer a matter of if, but when.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 02:20

Canadians being told to prepare for a possible novel coronavirus pandemic

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 02:40

ramana wrote:AmberG commend you for your diligence. If you need help please holler.

So far all cases have Wuhan connection? If you upload te excel file can have folks help you.

The excel sheet is quite large, am sharing with a few scientists. There are two files in for China (quite large) and one for others (now also large

).. columns have sex/age/place/country/if_they_or family from Wuhan/ date of first symptom/ hospitalization etc..etc. uploaded from central repository about once a day. Obviously lot of fuzzy/incomplete data of initial (and in China) stages.. but some quite good data from later time and outside China.
(As a physicist I am trained for seeing patterns in fuzzy data so am helping .. interesting that tools of mathematical modeling are similar here too

(Once I can figure out how to setup a shareable googledoc/sheet I will put a link here)

Lancent's (well known, reputable site for medical paper/preprint etc) resource port is quite good.. One place for all the current papers/data etc. (CDC, WHO and China's sources etc).

****

As posted here a few times, John Hopkin's dash board and worldometer site is quite good for statistics. I like, worldoeter's "new/latest developments" (near the end of all the stat) a nice day by day summary.

****
My medical friends tell me that more/detailed serological data (antibodies and antigens in patients sample) - now being collected - will be of great help in analysts.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 02:42

Mitt Romney weighs in...: Trump administration unprepared for coronavirus outbreak -

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 02:44

Iran's government spokesman Ali Rabiei has been tested for #coronavirus; Rabiei had yesterday a joint presser with deputy health minister who has been infected with the virus

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2020 02:47

AmberG, OK.

in that fuzzy or rather sparse set, is Wuhan the epicenter only?

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 03:00

Some interesting graphs/analysis I have not seen till recently ..

.. Calculating CFR against time lag. (That is finding the death rate after 4 days, 8 days, 15 days after first symptoms and seeing the pattern and estimate limiting value). .. The values (from preliminary look) are quite different for the one inside China (where data is fuzzy) and outside China...Outside China, CFR estimated (guesstimated by looking at the graphs) may be close to 1% while inside China it looks quite worse..(more than current quoted value of about 2%)

--- Temperature (location weather) effect on R0.. graphs are interesting.. don't know what they mean (statistically) to draw any conclusion.. (will onset of summer slow it down ?)).. May be we will know in a week or two with more data.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 03:02

ramana wrote:AmberG, OK.

in that fuzzy or rather sparse set, is Wuhan the epicenter only?

Definitely. (But that is no surprise) . For USA, for example, everyone had a connection (either the traveller of the family member came from Wuhan)
Data - with South Korea and Italy is growing pretty fast so the answer may change in coming weeks..

(Edited later: Typo removed. Thx Ramana)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 03:08

From worldometer:

Coronavirus Cases: 80,423
Deaths: 2,712
Recovered: 27,936

For country/time specific statistics - see the site
Todays Updates:
- We're in a phase of preparedness for a potential pandemic (WHO)
February 25 (GMT):
(The news feed below will resume later today. Updates can be monitored on the main table)
1 new death in South Korea: a female patient who died of acute respiratory failure after being admitted to the hospital for pneumonia only two days earlier, on Feb. 23. [source]
1 new death on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan: a person in their 80s. [source]
2 new cases in Italy: 1 in Alto Adige and 1 in Lombardy. [source]
60 new cases in South Korea (including 49 in Daegu, 5 in Gyeonggi Province, 3 in Busan, and 2 in Seoul).
- Sharp decline in new cases compared to previous morning's report (of 161 new cases)
- The two clusters at the Sincheon Daegu Church (in Daegu) and at the Cheongdo Daenam Hospital (in Daegu's neighboring county of Cheongdo), account for over 50% of total cases within South Korea. [source] [source]

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2020 03:31

I suppose SC is a typo for SK.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 26 Feb 2020 03:47

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
4m
San Francisco declares state of emergency to help prepare for an outbreak of coronavirus; there are currently no confirmed cases in the city - SF Chronicle

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 26 Feb 2020 03:58

Amber G. wrote:Some interesting graphs/analysis I have not seen till recently ..

.. Calculating CFR against time lag. (That is finding the death rate after 4 days, 8 days, 15 days after first symptoms and seeing the pattern and estimate limiting value). .. The values (from preliminary look) are quite different for the one inside China (where data is fuzzy) and outside China...Outside China, CFR estimated (guesstimated by looking at the graphs) may be close to 1% while inside China it looks quite worse..(more than current quoted value of about 2%)

...

I think, it may be that patients in China cant access good healthcare because of the epidemic, while outside China, patients still have good ICU care.. Mechanical ventilators, Oxygen, even trans-corporeal oxygenation! (Heart lung machine). There are some reports of using plasma transfusions from patients who have recovered. The hope is that their plasma has antibodies to deactivate the virus.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 26 Feb 2020 04:10

Amber G. wrote:Some interesting graphs/analysis I have not seen till recently ..

.. Calculating CFR against time lag. (That is finding the death rate after 4 days, 8 days, 15 days after first symptoms and seeing the pattern and estimate limiting value). .. The values (from preliminary look) are quite different for the one inside China (where data is fuzzy) and outside China...Outside China, CFR estimated (guesstimated by looking at the graphs) may be close to 1% while inside China it looks quite worse..(more than current quoted value of about 2%)

--- Temperature (location weather) effect on R0.. graphs are interesting.. don't know what they mean (statistically) to draw any conclusion.. (will onset of summer slow it down ?)).. May be we will know in a week or two with more data.

Amber Saar,
a simple suggestion.
Since (I'm assuming) you have a sufficiently large dataset of infected people of China, see if the age distribution against the gender
of the patients is same or not.
The same can be done for those recovered. A simple Statistical Contingency Table analysis (with Chi-square test) can be applied.
Next, for those who perished, if we have the age and other ailment information to see if there is any dependency or not.
Thanks.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 26 Feb 2020 04:28

BSR Murthy wrote:
durairaaj wrote:I don't know why Indians are still resistant to spread and tragic effect of this virus. Despite first foreigner to be infected was an Indian origin school teacher inChina.
It has even killed italian origin people and Iranian people. Other than that most of the dead are asian origin people.
Leaving aside the bio-terror angle and designer viruses targeting specific population groups, etc., a case can be made for Indians being relatively immune to Corona viruses. During the previous serious outbreaks of the other Corona virus infections in India's immediate neighborhood - SARS in the circa 2003 and MERS (2012-2017) - had minimal affect on Indians. Although COVID-19 is more contagious or infectious, its mortality is about 2.3% compared to fatality rates of 9.56% for SARS and an astounding 34.5% for MERS. Very few Indians were infected and the mortality was near zero. Prior exposure to Corona viruses or herd immunity was thought to explain the low infection and death rates.
...
And lastly:
Are Indians immune to SARS virus?
Hopefully, COVID-19 plays out similarly.
BSR

MERS spreads only from infected camels to humans. Human-human infection is not possible or is highly unlikely. SARS 1.0 was a much more severe disease and also not as transmissable as SARS 2.0. SARS 2.0 appears to be as transmissable as, say influenza. India is probably aided by lesser air conditioning and more Sun/warmth.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 26 Feb 2020 04:57

Solar radiation in the UV spectrum might have nucleic acid damaging effects. Virus might have a shorter half life on objects or in droplets. The ambient heat might be a factor. Wuhan temp 12 to 16. Chennai temp 26 to... no upper limit.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 05:07

Vamsee wrote:BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
4m
San Francisco declares state of emergency to help prepare for an outbreak of coronavirus; there are currently no confirmed cases in the city - SF Chronicle

SF Mayor just concluded a press conference. She did mentioned that there are currently no confirmed cases in the city (near by counties have them.. also they have treated 3 cases in SF hospitals etc..).. Interesting part was the mayor recommended - washing hands and getting flu vaccines..

right at the top. (Reading brf ?

).

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 26 Feb 2020 05:20

sanjaykumar wrote:Solar radiation in the UV spectrum might have nucleic acid damaging effects. Virus might have a shorter half life on objects or in droplets. The ambient heat might be a factor. Wuhan temp 12 to 16. Chennai temp 26 to... no upper limit.

Thanks for the laugh! I needed it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Feb 2020 06:14

Just today morning NPR was reporting how Nancy Pelosi was visiting Chinatown and saying how safe she felt to walk around China town!

And by afternoon, SFO mayor declares emergency in SFO without any cases being discovered.

No wonder the stock market tanked.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 06:44

Amber G. wrote:Meanwhile: Some encouraging news: Moderna (A Cambridge, Mass, company) Ships mRNA Vaccine Against Novel Coronavirus (mRNA-1273) for Phase 1 Study..https://investors.modernatx.com/news-re ... _ptBCOZtrk

I got this from someone who worked for Moderna . But now it is a BIG news...There is a WSJ article about this.. (also CNN and others).. and Moderna's stock jumped.
Per WSJ article it may be ready for patient trial by April.

From what I understand the concept of making vaccine is completely new.

Instead of using weak/dead/similar virus so that your cell learns how to produce antibodies and is ready if/when the real virus is introduced. This method is using messenger RNA to "teach" the human cell how to produce antigen.

(I learned quite a lot of new things about Vaccines and Molecular Biology but not an expert in the field so - for details please see WSJ article or standard molecular biology reference. I am a little concerned though as we do not know much about the side-effects of gene editing etc.)

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 26 Feb 2020 07:30

Am I cynical? I remember seeing something during my online searches a few days ago (in fact, I came upon it a couple of times, but didn't think much of it then), saying, as soon as a vaccine is ready for the coronavirus, the CDC will issue predictions of an imminent outbreak and that everybody needs to get the vaccine NOW.

BSR Murthy · Post by **BSR Murthy** » 26 Feb 2020 08:07

sudeepj wrote:
BSR Murthy wrote:
Leaving aside the bio-terror angle and designer viruses targeting specific population groups, etc., a case can be made for Indians being relatively immune to Corona viruses. During the previous serious outbreaks of the other Corona virus infections in India's immediate neighborhood - SARS in the circa 2003 and MERS (2012-2017) - had minimal affect on Indians. Although COVID-19 is more contagious or infectious, its mortality is about 2.3% compared to fatality rates of 9.56% for SARS and an astounding 34.5% for MERS. Very few Indians were infected and the mortality was near zero. Prior exposure to Corona viruses or herd immunity was thought to explain the low infection and death rates.
...

MERS spreads only from infected camels to humans. Human-human infection is not possible or is highly unlikely. SARS 1.0 was a much more severe disease and also not as transmissable as SARS 2.0. SARS 2.0 appears to be as transmissable as, say influenza. India is probably aided by lesser air conditioning and more Sun/warmth.

Not really. There was person to person transmission in MERS.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/ab ... ssion.html

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 26 Feb 2020 08:07

Italy has confirmed 54 new cases of #coronavirus today bringing the total 283.

Seasonal Flu Damage in Italy (pre-CV)

...
In the winter seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17, an estimated average of 5,290,000 ILI (influenza-like-illness) cases occurred in Italy, corresponding to an incidence of 9%.
...
More than 68,000 deaths attributable to flu epidemics were estimated in the study period.
...

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 26 Feb 2020 08:50

It's odd that there is NO recommended treatment protocols from WHO or China being publically released. With so many patients, they would tried all types of Anti virals & symptomatic medicines, by now.

Let's Hope hot weather will kill off the virus. In India, except North & North East, weather has already turned to hot summers. Unlike Wuhan which has 1-2 months of more mild weather.

In India, another 2 weeks & weather will be hot even in North & NE. By end of March, it will be scorching hot in most of India.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 08:53

Algeria records first coronavirus case from an Italian tourist. This marks a second #coronavirus case in Africa after Egypt
@WHOAFRO

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 08:54

The #Covid2019 virus has officially reached #Brazil.

This is the first country in South America to report the #coronavirus.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 26 Feb 2020 08:55

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... av0aO.html

An old article but it states that almost 650,000 people die every year due to FLU

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Feb 2020 09:02

Each year 0.075E9 ppl die. When the next virus makes ppl sterile that will end hyoomanity inside 80 years. Robots Uber Alles!

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 26 Feb 2020 09:04

Osaltamivir is of marginal utility in treatment of influenza but more efficacious as a prophylactic agent. I hope the CDC or China are using the various nucleotide analogues, singly or in combination, in studies of contacts at high risk.

This would be urgent.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 26 Feb 2020 09:06

Looking at the dashboard its almost miraculous how low India's numbers are compared to almost every country in the region and worldwide. Kudos to our healthcare and screening despite all our drawbacks.

People talk about gloom and doom if things go out of hand in India but we have done great so far and its reason enough to celebrate.
North Korea and Napaks are a different breed altogether.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 09:09

South Korea reports 169 additional coronavirus cases, bringing total to 1,146

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 09:09

Bahrain closes all kindergartens, schools, universities, and training centers in the country for at least 2 weeks to prevent the spread of coronavirus

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 09:10

sudeepj wrote:.... Wuhan temp 12 to 16. Chennai temp 26 to... no upper limit.....
Thanks for the laugh! I needed it.

FWIW: This is a graph of temperature.. (Not exactly 12 to 16 vs 26 and above, but what is "winter" vs "not-winter" "season"
This data is excluding China cases. Number of new cases (5 day average) between warmer/colder places. Blue is colder places .. yellow is "warmer" (southern hemisphere and places near equator).

Y axis: (horizontal rows represents 50 people)
X Axis: Date (starting with Feb 2 to Feb 23 , each tick 1 week.

No it does not mean you are safe in Chennai .. but still it is fun to look at graphs..

)

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 09:11

Romania reported its first #COVID19 case. The patient returned from Italy three weeks ago, which means #coronavirus was already spreading in Italy way before the current outbreak.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Feb 2020 09:13

The Optimist fell ten storeys
At each window bar
He called out to his friends:
ALL RIGHT SO FAAAR!!!

True that the swift action to screen at airports - and insist on hospital checkups - has been very effective. Yes, a victory of an open, free system indeed: even people in remote villages had heard about it and good or bad, they knew it was serious.

But it may be a matter of time before there is an outbreak inside a crowded city, and then come the tough decisions: close down mass transport? Markets? schools? factories?
I think the URGENT priority is to get tele-medicine capabilities installed at most basic level (screen, mike & speaher connected to WhatsApp and Internet is fine) as well as diagnostic kits and treatment down into the localities rather than bring people to central hospitals, infecting everything and everyone along the way.

Also, ensure that food is sanitized from the start.
And sewage zapped with radiation or whatever.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 11:22

The secretary of the deputy mayor of Daegu, South Korea, was diagnosed with #coronavirus on Tuesday, the day South Korean President Moon Jae-in attended a meeting with the deputy mayor.

The Blue House has advised meeting attendees and reporters to undergo quarantine at home.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 11:31

sudeepj wrote:
Amber G. wrote:Some interesting graphs/analysis I have not seen till recently ..

.. Calculating CFR against time lag. (That is finding the death rate after 4 days, 8 days, 15 days after first symptoms and seeing the pattern and estimate limiting value). .. The values (from preliminary look) are quite different for the one inside China (where data is fuzzy) and outside China...Outside China, CFR estimated (guesstimated by looking at the graphs) may be close to 1% while inside China it looks quite worse..(more than current quoted value of about 2%)

...

I think, it may be that patients in China cant access good healthcare because of the epidemic, while outside China, patients still have good ICU care.. Mechanical ventilators, Oxygen, even trans-corporeal oxygenation! (Heart lung machine). There are some reports of using plasma transfusions from patients who have recovered. The hope is that their plasma has antibodies to deactivate the virus.

Seems logical and that's what most think too.

Another point some Chinese authors are saying that one of the BIG factor, specially for health workers cases were they lacked sleep, over worked and fatigue played a very large part. (Cases of doctors collapsing from overwork).

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 11:41

Kati wrote:
Amber G. wrote:Some interesting graphs/analysis I have not seen till recently ..

.. Calculating CFR against time lag. (That is finding the death rate after 4 days, 8 days, 15 days after first symptoms and seeing the pattern and estimate limiting value). .. The values (from preliminary look) are quite different for the one inside China (where data is fuzzy) and outside China...Outside China, CFR estimated (guesstimated by looking at the graphs) may be close to 1% while inside China it looks quite worse..(more than current quoted value of about 2%)

--- Temperature (location weather) effect on R0.. graphs are interesting.. don't know what they mean (statistically) to draw any conclusion.. (will onset of summer slow it down ?)).. May be we will know in a week or two with more data.
Amber Saar,
a simple suggestion.
Since (I'm assuming) you have a sufficiently large dataset of infected people of China, see if the age distribution against the gender
of the patients is same or not.
The same can be done for those recovered. A simple Statistical Contingency Table analysis (with Chi-square test) can be applied.
Next, for those who perished, if we have the age and other ailment information to see if there is any dependency or not.
Thanks.

There was an earlier post by me linking a paper which has detailed study of hospital patients in China.

I am posting this link which has done exactly what you are asking. Hope this helps. http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id ... a8db1a8f51

It has many charts like below (see the article above)

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 26 Feb 2020 11:55

Next, for those who perished, if we have the age and other ailment information to see if there is any dependency or not.

..
Yes, Obviously this analysis has been done in detail and is there on CDC/WHO site too.... for Mortality rate, for example -- 0.9 % for people without any ailment/pre-existing condition with one with Cardiovascular disease, it is much higher (10+%), Others conditions were Diabetes, Hypertension, Cancer and respiratory disease where this was higher..

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 12:35

Korean Air attendant diagnosed with #coronavirus after working on Los Angeles flight, South Korean media reports

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 26 Feb 2020 12:37

The Korean Air cabin crew member who has #coronavirus was working on the plane which brought back a South Korean Church group from their pilgrimage to Israel. 30 out of 77 in that group have the virus. Health officials now tracing everyone on that flight.