Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Tanaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... t-7356235/

There are advantages and disadvantages to putting out an official statement refuting such trash reports. On one hand it clears the air but on the other hand it gives a modicum of respect to the publication. I suspect it’s the NYT article that is being talked about.
shaun
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by shaun »

Exclusive: How Amateur Sleuths Broke the Wuhan Lab Story and Embarrassed the Media
BY ROWAN JACOBSEN ON 6/2/21 AT 2:23 PM EDT

For most of last year, the idea that the coronavirus pandemic could have been triggered by a laboratory accident in Wuhan, China, was largely dismissed as a racist conspiracy theory of the alt-right. The Washington Post in early 2020 accused Senator Tom Cotton of "fanning the embers of a conspiracy theory that has been repeatedly debunked by experts." CNN jumped in with "How to debunk coronavirus conspiracy theories and misinformation from friends and family." Most other mainstream outlets, from The New York Times ("fringe theory") to NPR ("Scientists debunk lab accident theory"), were equally dismissive. (Newsweek was an exception, reporting in April 2020 that the WIV was involved in gain-of-function research and might have been the site of a lab leak; Mother Jones, Business Insider, the NY Post and FOX News were also exceptions.) But in the last week or so, the story has burst into the public discourse. President Joe Biden has demanded an investigation by U.S. intelligence. And the mainstream media, in an astonishing about-face, is treating the possibility with deadly seriousness.

The reason for the sudden shift in attitudes is clear: over the weeks and months of the pandemic, the pileup of circumstantial evidence pointing to the Wuhan lab kept growing—until it became too substantial to ignore.



Wuhan lab theory gains traction
Workers are seen inside the P4 laboratory in Wuhan, capital of China's Hubei province, on February 23, 2017. Amateur sleuths pulled together the evidence of a lab leak as the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic.
JOHANNES EISELE/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
The people responsible for uncovering this evidence are not journalists or spies or scientists. They are a group of amateur sleuths, with few resources except curiosity and a willingness to spend days combing the internet for clues. Throughout the pandemic, about two dozen or so correspondents, many anonymous, working independently from many different countries, have uncovered obscure documents, pieced together the information, and explained it all in long threads on Twitter—in a kind of open-source, collective brainstorming session that was part forensic science, part citizen journalism, and entirely new. They call themselves DRASTIC, for Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating COVID-19

For a long time, DRASTIC's discoveries stayed confined to the strange world of Twitter, known only to a few nerdy followers. The sleuths ran into a fair number of dead ends, got into the occasional spat with scientists who disagreed with their interpretations, and produced a firehose of reporting. Gradually, the quality of their research and the rigor of their thinking drew a larger following, including many professional scientists and journalists.
Thanks to DRASTIC, we now know that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had an extensive collection of coronaviruses gathered over many years of foraging in the bat caves, and that many of them—including the closest known relative to the pandemic virus, SARS-CoV-2—came from a mineshaft where three men died from a suspected SARS-like disease in 2012. We know that the WIV was actively working with these viruses, using inadequate safety protocols, in ways that could have triggered the pandemic, and that the lab and Chinese authorities have gone to great lengths to conceal these activities. We know that the first cases appeared weeks before the outbreak at the Huanan wet market that was once thought to be ground zero.

None of this proves that the pandemic started in the Wuhan lab, of course: it's entirely possible that it did not. But the evidence assembled by DRASTIC amounts to what prosecutors call probable cause—a strong, evidence-based case for a full investigation. It's not clear that the best efforts of the U.S. and other nations to investigate the lab-leak hypothesis will ever turn up unequivocal evidence one way or another, at least without the full cooperation of China, which is unlikely.

NEWSWEEK SUBSCRIPTION OFFERS >
But if they do, this small, motley group of amateur sleuths will have broken what may be the biggest story of the 21st century.

This is how they did it.

Strange coincidences

The young Indian man who calls himself The Seeker is in his late-20s, lives somewhere in eastern India, and uses a piece of tribal art from his home region of West Bengal for his Twitter logo, he said via email. His career has been a melange of architecture, painting, and filmmaking—a khichdi, his mother and sister call it, meaning a stew of disparate ingredients that adds up to something surprising and delightful. A voracious autodidact, he'd become an expert at searching the back alleys of the web, far beyond the well-lit places patrolled by Google, for information on whatever topic interested him. He often posted on Reddit, where he had accumulated a massive 750,000 karma points. That's all The Seeker revealed to Newsweek through email and messaging; he maintains his anonymity.
Like most people following the news back when the pandemic started, The Seeker initially believed that the virus had jumped from wild animals to humans at a Wuhan wet market. (On March 27 he tweeted, "Nobody wants to see their parents or grandma and grandpa die over a stupid virus from an exotic animal market.") He believed this because that's what the mainstream press told him, and the mainstream press believed it because that is what a handful of scientists had said.

Chief among these scientists was a biologist named Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a non-profit research group that ran a large international program to survey natural pathogens with the potential to cause a pandemic. Daszak had been collaborating for years with Shi Zhengli, the director of the Wuhan Institute of Virology and a renowned bat virologist. Daszak co-authored nearly a dozen papers with Shi and funneled at least $600,000 of U.S. government grants her way.

When the pandemic happened to break out on the doorstep of the lab with the largest collection of coronaviruses in the world, fueling speculation that the WIV might be involved, Daszak and 26 other scientists signed a letter that appeared in The Lancet on February 19, 2020. "We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin," it stated.

We now know, thanks to a Freedom of Information Act request, that Daszak orchestrated the letter to squelch talk of a lab leak. He drafted it, reached out to fellow scientists to sign it, and worked behind the scenes to make it seem that the letter represented the views of a broad range of scientists. "This statement will not have the EcoHealth Alliance logo on it and will not be identifiable as coming from any one organization or person," he wrote in his pitch to the co-signatories. Scientists whose work had overlapped with the WIV agreed not to sign it so they could "put it out in a way that doesn't link it back to our collaboration."

At the time, however, there was no hint of Daszak's organizing role. The letter helped make Daszak a ubiquitous presence in the media, where he called a lab-leak "preposterous," "baseless," and "pure baloney." He also attacked scientists who published evidence pointing to the lab. Part of the reason the lab theory made no sense, he argued, was because the Wuhan lab wasn't culturing any viruses remotely similar to SARS-CoV-2. (Daszak has not responded to Newsweek's request for comment.)

For a long time, Daszak was astonishingly influential. Few in the media questioned him or pointed out that his career and organization would be deeply damaged if it turned out his work had indirectly played a role in the pandemic. His unwitting accomplice was Donald Trump, who embraced the theory, turning what should have been a scientific question into a political one

When the Trump administration canceled EcoHealth Alliance contracts that would have spent millions on new virus research, 60 Minutes ran a segment that painted Daszak as a martyr to the right-wing conspiracy machine. For right-thinking people everywhere, it seemed like an easy call: The enemy of my enemy is my friend: thus, the lab-leak theory is bunk.

A Whiff of Censorship

By early 2020, The Seeker was beginning to question that viewpoint. He had begun to interact with people who were poking holes in the conventional wisdom.

One important piece was an extensive Medium post by the Canadian longevity entrepreneur Yuri Deigin that discussed RaTG13, a virus Shi Zhengli had revealed to the world in a February 3 paper in the journal Nature. In that paper, Shi presented the first extensive analysis of SARS-CoV-2, which had seemed to come from nowhere—the virus was unlike any that had been seen before, including the first SARS, which had killed 774 people from 2002 to 2004. In her paper, however, Shi also introduced RaTG13, a virus that is similar in genetic makeup to SARS-CoV-2, making it the only known close relative at the time.

The paper was vague about where RaTG13 had come from. It didn't say exactly where or when RaTG13 had been found, just that it had previously been detected in a bat in Yunnan Province, in southern China.

The paper aroused Deigin's suspicions. He wondered if SARS-CoV-2 might have emerged through some genetic mixing and matching from a lab working with RaTG13 or related viruses. His post was cogent and comprehensive. The Seeker posted Deigin's theory on Reddit, which promptly suspended his account permanently.

That early whiff of censorship piqued Seeker's curiosity, so he read more of the Twitter group's ideas. "I found a lively group of people eager to debate and explore the topic," he told Newsweek by email.

It was an eclectic group. There were entrepreneurs, engineers, and a microbiologist from the University of Innsbruck named Rossana Segreto. None of them had known each other in advance; they gravitated to the forum after independently concluding that the conventional wisdom of the origins of COVID-19 didn't make sense. Conversations were kept on track by a wisecracking coordinator living somewhere in Asia who went by the pseudonym Billy Bostickson, and whose Twitter icon was a cartoon of a beat-up lab monkey.

The Seeker fit right in. "They helped me catch up on the debate, and I started to educate myself," he says. "Before I knew it, I got hooked into the mystery." He was driven in part by curiosity, but also by a growing sense of civic duty. "COVID has taken the lives of countless people and devastated so many others. But it has also left so many clues that haven't been followed up. Humanity deserves answers."

The Seeker and the rest of the group became increasingly convinced that RaTG13 might hold the key to some of those answers. In a crackling thread, half a dozen participants hashed out its mysteries, combing the internet and the WIV's previous papers for clues.

If there is a moment when the DRASTIC team coalesced into something more than its disparate parts, it would be this thread. In real time, for all the world to see, they worked through the data, tested various hypotheses, corrected each other, and scored some direct hits.

The key facts quickly came together. The genetic sequence for RaTG13 perfectly matched a small piece of genetic code posted as part of a paper written by Shi Zhengli years earlier, but never mentioned again. The code came from a virus the WIV had found in a Yunnan bat. Connecting key details in the two papers with old news stories, the DRASTIC team determined that RaTG13 had come from a mineshaft in Mojiang County, in Yunnan Province, where six men shoveling bat guano in 2012 had developed pneumonia. Three of them died. DRASTIC wondered if that event marked the first cases of human beings being infected with a precursor of SARS-CoV-2—perhaps RaTG13 or something like it.

In a profile in Scientific American, Shi Zhengli acknowledged working in a mineshaft in Mojiang County where miners had died. But she avoided connecting it to RaTG13 (an omission she had made in her scientific papers as well), claiming that a fungus in the cave had killed the miners.

That explanation didn't sit well with the DRASTIC group. They suspected a SARS-like virus, not a fungus, had killed the miners and that, for whatever reason, the WIV was trying to hide that fact. It was a hunch, and they had no way of proving it.

At this point, The Seeker revealed his research powers to the group. In his online explorations, he'd recently discovered a massive Chinese database of academic journals and theses called CNKI. Now he wondered if somewhere in its vast circuitry might be information on the sickened miners.

Working through the night at his bedside table on phone and laptop, fueled by chai and using Chinese characters with the help of Google Translate, he plugged in "Mojiang"—the county where the mine was located—in combination with every other word he could think of that might be relevant, instantly translating each new flush of results back to English. "Mojiang + pneumonia"; "Mojiang + WIV"; "Mojiang + bats"; "Mojiang + SARS." Each search brought back thousands of results and half a dozen different databases for journals, books, newspapers, master's theses, doctoral dissertations. He combed through these results, night after night, but never found anything useful. When he ran out of energy, he broke for arcade games and more chai.

He was on the verge of calling it quits, he says, when he struck gold: a 60-page master's thesis written by a student at Kunming Medical University in 2013 titled "The Analysis of 6 Patients with Severe Pneumonia Caused by Unknown Viruses." In exhaustive detail, it described the conditions and step-by-step treatment of the miners. It named the suspected culprit: "Caused by SARS-like [coronavirus] from the Chinese horseshoe bat or other bats."

The Seeker dropped the link, without fanfare, on May 18, 2020, then followed up with a second thesis from a PhD student at the Chinese CDC confirming much of the information in the first. Four of the miners had tested positive for antibodies from a SARS-like infection. And the WIV had been looped in to test samples from them all. (Shortly after The Seeker posted the theses, China changed the access controls on CNKI so no one could do such a search again.)

If a SARS-like virus had emerged in 2012, had been covered up, and the WIV had been sending people back to the mine to forage for more samples and bringing them back to Wuhan, that should have been front-page news the next day. Instead, not a single story appeared for weeks. A few stories appeared in the UK, including a feature in the Sunday Times. The U.S. media took a pass.

"I was definitely expecting it to blow up all over the news," The Seeker admits. "The general lack of interest in facts or reason surprised me. And it still perplexes me that even with all their resources, the corporate investigative media is lagging terribly."

Within days, DRASTIC managed to locate the coordinates of the mysterious Mojiang mine, but it would not catch the attention of the media until late 2020, when a race to get there began. The first attempt was by the BBC's John Sudworth, who found his path blocked by trucks and guards. (Sudworth would soon be forced to leave China because of his reporting.) The AP tried around the same time, with no better luck. Later, teams from NBC, CBS, Today, and other outlets also found their way blocked by trucks, trees, and angry men. Some were told that it was dangerous to proceed because of wild elephants. Eventually, a Wall Street Journal reporter reached the entrance to the mine by mountain bike—only to be detained for five hours of questioning. The mine's secrets remain.

A Huge Sudoku Puzzle

Although the Moijang mine revelation in May 2020 got nowhere in the media, it attracted new members to DRASTIC, which was able to expand its intelligence gathering to cover everything from viral genetics to biolab safety protocols. On May 21, 2020, Billy Bostickson dubbed the group "DRASTIC Research." He also began organizing the team into subgroups to focus on different aspects of the case. Soon, they were regularly posting discoveries that made lab involvement seem more likely.

A key team member was Francisco de Asis de Ribera, a Madrid data scientist who excels at mining big data sets. Over the years, the WIV had published a huge amount of information about its virus-hunting projects in different outlets and formats. Ribera began assembling it all into "a huge Sudoku puzzle," searching for places where he could fill in some of the blanks, slowly assembling a comprehensive map of the WIV's entire virus program. He and The Seeker made a formidable team, The Seeker unearthing new pieces of the puzzle and Ribera fitting them into place. ("I have always seen myself and Francisco as playing Detective McNulty and Detective Freamon from The Wire," The Seeker joked to Newsweek in one message.)

Ribera was responsible for solving another piece of the RaTG13 puzzle. Had the WIV been actively working on RaTG13 during the seven years since they discovered it? Peter Daszak said no: they had never used the virus because it wasn't similar enough to the original SARS. "We thought it's interesting, but not high-risk," he told Wired. "So we didn't do anything about it and put it in the freezer."

Ribera disproved that account. When a new science paper on genetics is published, the authors must upload the accompanying genetic sequences to an international database. By examining some metadata tags that had been accidentally uploaded by the WIV along with its genetic sequences for RaTG13, Ribera discovered that scientists at the lab had indeed been actively studying the virus in 2017 and 2018—they hadn't stuck it in a freezer and forgotten about it, after all.

In fact, the WIV had been intensely interested in RaTG13 and everything else that had come from the Mojiang mineshaft. From his giant Sudoku puzzle, Ribera determined that they made at least seven different trips to the mine, over many years, collecting thousands of samples. Ribera's guess is that their technology had not been good enough in 2012 and 2013 to find the virus that had killed the miners, so they kept going back as the techniques improved.

He also made a bold prediction. Cross-referencing snippets of information from multiple sources, Ribera guessed, in a Twitter thread dated August 1, 2020, that a cluster of eight SARS-related viruses mentioned briefly in an obscure section of one WIV paper had actually also come from the Mojiang mine. In other words, they hadn't found one relative of SARS-CoV-2 in that mineshaft; they'd found nine. In November 2020, Shi Zhengli confirmed many of DRASTIC's suspicions about the Mojiang cave in an addendum to her original paper on RaTG13 and in a talk in February 2021.

Of course, the only reason Ribera has had to perform such Sherlockian feats is because the WIV has not shared the data investigators have asked for. The WIV maintained a database on its website with all the data on the viruses in its collection, including the many unpublished ones, but that page on its website has been empty for some time. When asked about the missing database in January 2021, Shi Zhengli explained that it had been taken offline during the pandemic because the WIV web server had become the focus of online attacks. But once again, DRASTIC poked holes in this explanation: the database was taken down on September 12, 2019, shortly before the start of the pandemic, and well before the WIV would have become a target.

Other databases yielded other clues. In the WIV's grant applications and awards, The Seeker found detailed descriptions of the Institute's research plans, and they were damning: Projects were underway to test the infectivity of novel SARS-like viruses they'd discovered in human cells and in lab animals, to see how they might mutate as they crossed species, and to genetically recombine pieces of different viruses—all being done at woefully inadequate biosecurity levels. All the elements for a disaster were on hand.

Of course, that is not proof that a disaster took place. Barring unlikely eyewitness testimony, we may never have that. But all the evidence DRASTIC has produced points in the same direction: The Wuhan Institute of Virology had spent years collecting dangerous coronaviruses, some of which it has never revealed to the world. It was actively testing these viruses to determine their ability to infect people, as well as what mutations might be necessary to enhance that ability—likely with the ultimate goal of producing a vaccine that would protect against all of them. And the ongoing effort to cover this up implies that something may have gone wrong.

Going Mainstream

By early 2021, DRASTIC had produced so much information that no one could keep up, not even its own researchers, so they launched their own website as a repository. The site contains enough science papers, Twitter threads, translations of Chinese documents and links to articles to keep a curious gumshoe busy for months.

Increasingly, those gumshoes are professional journalists and scientists. "Rossana Segreto and Yuri Deigin are my heroes," says the writer Nicholson Baker, who published an influential feature on the lab-leak theory in New York magazine. "They combed through the research and made inspired connections and uncovered crucial pieces of the story that needed to be told. Same goes for Mona Rahalkar and Billy Bostickson. Crowd-sourced scientific muckraking."

The UK journalist Ian Birrell concurs. "There is no doubt their collective efforts...have been crucial in challenging both China and the scientific establishment to ensure the lab leak theory is properly investigated," he wrote in Unherd. "It has been fascinating to see, in the course of my investigations over the past year, how this group of activists—in tandem with a few brave scientists—has forced the lab leak hypothesis from the shadows."

One of those scientists was Alina Chan, a molecular biologist at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard who recognized the value of the information DRASTIC was producing and began to interpret it for scientists and nonscientists alike in crisp explainers on Twitter that made her a star science communicator. Chan acknowledged the group's accomplishments in a long thread on Twitter. "Without the work done by the DRASTIC team, I don't really know where we would be today with the origins of covid-19," she wrote, adding, "The work of these outsiders...has had a measurable impact on the scientific discourse."

That scientific discourse jumped tracks on January 6, 2021, when the University of Washington virologist Jesse Bloom, one of the country's most respected COVID-19 researchers, became the first major scientific figure to publicly legitimize DRASTIC's contributions. "Yes, I follow the work," he tweeted, sending tremors through the scientific establishment. "I don't agree [with] all of it, but some parts seem important & correct." Bloom singled out Mona Rahalkar's paper on the Mojiang mine, then added that in the early days of the pandemic, "I thought lab escape very unlikely. Based on subsequent work, I now say quite plausible."

Other scientists pressured Bloom to reconsider, but he held his ground, and the wall of silence began to crumble. In May, 17 scientists from Harvard, Yale, MIT, Stanford, and other leading institutions, including Chan, joined Bloom in a letter in Science calling for a thorough investigation of the Wuhan lab.

On nearly the same day, The Seeker struck again. Visiting a database hosted by China's Ministry of Science and Technology, he searched for all theses supervised by Shi Zhengli. Boom. Three hits. "I got it on my first try," he says. "Not sure why no one else thought of this before, but I guess no one was looking."

If there had been any remaining doubt about the WIV's pattern of deception, these new theses put it to rest. They indicated that the WIV researchers had never believed a fungus had killed the Mojiang miners, contradicting Shi's remarks in Scientific American and elsewhere. In fact, WIV researchers had been so concerned about a new SARS-like outbreak that they'd tested the blood of neighboring villagers for other cases. And they had known the genetic sequences for the eight other SARS-like viruses from the mine—which could have helped researchers to understand more about SARS-CoV-2 in the early days —long before the pandemic started, and had kept the information to themselves, until DRASTIC called them out.

Within days of the new revelations and the Science letter, more academics, politicians and even the mainstream media began to take the lab-leak seriously, culminating on May 26 when President Biden ordered U.S. intelligence agencies "to redouble their efforts to collect and analyze information that could bring us closer to a definitive conclusion." Biden promised that "the United States will also keep working with like-minded partners around the world to press China to participate in a full, transparent, evidence-based international investigation and to provide access to all relevant data and evidence."

So far China has been ice-cool to the suggestion. It may never cooperate with an investigation. But it's now clear that the question of whether a biolab could have caused this pandemic—and could cause the next—is going to be explored in a way that might never have happened if a radical and decentralized group of outsiders hadn't challenged the status quo.

That's a lesson The Seeker won't soon forget. "I no longer see science as an exclusive domain," he wrote to Newsweek. "Everyone can make a difference."

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-how- ... ia-1596958
VinodTK
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by VinodTK »

In China's Latest Outbreak, Doctors Say the Infected Get Sicker, Faster
As the delta variant of the coronavirus spreads in southeastern China, doctors say they are finding that the symptoms are different and more dangerous than those they saw when the initial version of the virus started spreading in late 2019 in the central city of Wuhan.

Patients are becoming sicker, and their conditions are worsening much more quickly, doctors told state-run television Thursday and Friday. Four-fifths of symptomatic cases developed fevers, they said, although it was not clear how that compared with earlier cases. The virus concentrations that are detected in their bodies climb to levels higher than previously seen and then decline only slowly, the doctors said.

Up to 12% of patients become severely or critically ill within three to four days of the onset of symptoms, said Guan Xiangdong, director of critical care medicine at Sun Yat-sen University in the city of Guangzhou, where the outbreak has been centered. In the past, the proportion had been 2% or 3%, although occasionally up to 10%, he said.
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Zynda
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

Per BBMP, as of yesterday, 30% of BLR over 18 have received 1st done of vaccination. BBMP hopes to expand the coverage to 50% by end of June. So hopefully, by July end if we can cross 70%+, we will see effectiveness of vaccine in controlling the number of cases provided there are no further disruptive mutations...I think BBMP may ask GoI to reduce the gap between 2nd dose for Covishield to 2 months if they are able to meet the above targets...So far BLR has been administering around 90,000 shots per day...with improvement in vaccine availability, that number can go up as required along with improvement in vaccination slots for 2nd dose as well.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

The delta variant is spreading quite fast in UK, Canada, USA etc..There have been cases even in Ohio.. :(

The data in US.. (There's early confirmation of that trend in the US data from May 15 onwards. Alpha in blue, Delta in red)
Image

Here is Sutra Model for UK - there may be lockdown in UK .. but the next peek in mid-July looks quite serious..
Image
Tanaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

AmberG, the UK has a high proportion of people with at least one dose. While I am aware that getting a vaccine does not mean you can’t get the virus, why does the model show a high level of infections?
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

I hear Mumbai cases are going up. Can anyone comment?
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... ar-AAL1JoI
A COVID-19 outbreak at a major Chinese port is worsening the global shipping crisis, which could disrupt orders for the holiday season, experts warn
Global shipping disruptions could trigger delays in goods in this year's holiday season, industry experts say.
A COVID-19 outbreak at a major Chinese port has led to a backlog of shipments, worsening an existing shipping crisis.
"Heaven knows what's going to happen come August or September," one expert told the BBC. "It could get crazy."
See more stories on Insider's business page.
Shipping disruptions around the world could lead to a shortage of goods for the holiday season, according to industry experts.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

vijayk wrote:I hear Mumbai cases are going up. Can anyone comment?
You can check stats by Districts here. I am not seeing any meaningful increase in cases in Mumbai.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Day 150 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1727049
Day 148 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1726653

35.96 lakh Vaccine Doses administered today till 7 pm

Day 150 - day 148 = 25.87 cr - 25.29 Cr = 58 lacs over Sunday and Monday.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

The previous Sunday + Monday (on June 7th) was = 23.59 cr - 23.1 cr = 40 lacs. This has risen to 58 lacs, a 45% increase. The week has started on a very high note. Hope this momentum continues.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Tanaji wrote:AmberG, the UK has a high proportion of people with at least one dose. While I am aware that getting a vaccine does not mean you can’t get the virus, why does the model show a high level of infections?
Yes, that is true..Since the vaccination level is high, it is not going to shoot up to really scary height -- the prediction seems to be quite correct *unless* UK takes strong steps (which they are likely to do as their PM is getting aware of this). The value/height of peak may vary (it may be even more if they don't take is seriously) they cases are going to start increasing and in mid-July they will see quite a bit of increase. I am putting this analysis but it is consistent with other scientists.... parameter beta has gone up to 0.65.. (even higher than some parts of India).. The transmissivity of the delta variation is *very* high.

(The trouble is in initial phases the cases shoots up exponentially and many do not have much understanding of these early warnings)

Even in US the transmissivity of Delta is quite high - but "S" part (susceptible) remains low. Due to many people vaccines it is going to remain under control (Pfizer/Moderna are much more effective - ).. I don't see any peaking..

For USA;
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Last edited by Amber G. on 14 Jun 2021 21:53, edited 1 time in total.
vera_k
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

I went looking for data on hospitalizations, and sure enough they are reported to be ticking up. Hopefully this is just caused by lower vaccination rates in the UK due to the extended interval between the first and second dose.

'Levels Of Hospitalisation Going Up,' UK PM Expresses Concern Over Delta Variant, Hints At Extension Of Covid Curbs
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Huge bump in Monday vaccination numbers:
Day 148 (Sat): https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1727049
Day 150 (Mon): https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1727049

Difference = 25,87,13,321 - 25,28,78,702 = 58,34,619

5.8 million doses on Sun+Mon! That's a huge increase over last week and assuming Sunday was around 1.5m doses as in the last 2 weekends, this means Monday was 4.3 million doses.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

vijayk wrote:I hear Mumbai cases are going up. Can anyone comment?
Mumbai case numbers are now very small. At small numbers, errors get magnified making estimation poorer... but the parameters are quite stable..the significant change can occur if habits of people change.
(If we had a good servo survey, prediction can be much better).
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FWIW: The blue curve is still quite within the best case/worse case type of plot drawn about 2 months ago.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Suraj wrote:Huge bump in Monday vaccination numbers:
Day 148 (Sat): https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1727049
Day 150 (Mon): https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1727049

Difference = 25,87,13,321 - 25,28,78,702 = 58,34,619

5.8 million doses on Sun+Mon! That's a huge increase over last week and assuming Sunday was around 1.5m doses as in the last 2 weekends, this means Monday was 4.3 million doses.
Great. May be we can see 50+ lakhs on Wed/Thu if we keep this up
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by rsingh »

I wonder what Greeks have to say about Alpha, Beta, Gamma, delta variants of Covid 19.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

rsingh wrote:I wonder what Greeks have to say about Alpha, Beta, Gamma, delta variants of Covid 19.
If they object to that then they would have an objection to all science and mathematics.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Y I Patel »

Novavax published phase 3 trial results for USA. Excellent efficacy. Wonderful news for India since SII is to manufacture these vaccines.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Novavax haven't published anything. They simply announced preliminary results from a US/Mexico trial, which reported similar data to a prior UK trial. They are yet to complete their trial, finish analysis or submit anything to a peer-reviewed journal.

Compared to Covaxin, they have been slower, reporting initial results 6 months later - the US/Mex trial began in December.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Recruitment for clinical trial of Covaxin in 6-12 age group to start at AIIMS from Tuesday
The recruitment for the clinical trial of the country’s first indigenously-developed COVID-19 vaccine, Covaxin, among children in the age group of 6-12 years will begin at the AIIMS here from Tuesday.

This will be followed by the clinical trial of children in the age-group of 2-6 years.

The enrolment of children volunteers aged 12-18 years at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) has been completed and they have been given the first dose of Covaxin.

“The recruitment process for the clinical trial of Covaxin among children in the age group of 6-12 years will begin from Tuesday,” Dr Sanjay Rai, Professor at the Centre for Community Medicine at the AIIMS, told PTI.

The Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) had granted permission for conducting the phase 2/3 clinical trial of Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin among children aged two to 18 years on May 12.

The trial is to be conducted in three parts — 175 volunteers each in the groups aged 12-18, 6-12 and 2-6 years

A national expert group has been formed to review COVID-19 cases in children and approach the pandemic in a renewed way to strengthen the country's preparedness, NITI Aayog Member (Health) V K Paul had told a press conference.

The clinical trials will evaluate the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of the vaccine in children.

The enrolment of children volunteers aged 12-18 years at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) has been completed and they have been given the first dose of Covaxin.

In the trial, the vaccine will be given by the intramuscular route in two doses on day 0 and day 28.

The government recently cautioned that even though COVID-19 has not taken a serious shape among children till now, its impact can increase among them if there is a change in the virus behaviour or epidemiology dynamics and said preparations are being strengthened to deal with any such situation.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Paul »

https://www.deccanherald.com/city/top-b ... 97588.html
Losing five loved ones to Covid, woman left to raise orphaned granddaughter aloneThe family had borrowed from several relatives for hospital expenses, but now Rashmi has no one but her aging grandmother to depend on
srai
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by srai »

^^^
Sadly, these are not rare stories. Long-term funds and support will be required from government, not just charities.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sachin »

srai wrote:Sadly, these are not rare stories. Long-term funds and support will be required from government, not just charities.
Would be contributing with what ever I can. But all said and done there has to be a mechanism to safe guard the money so that it is not mis-used or used up without planning. In many cases this too happen. Once money starts flowing in; 'relatives' also start coming in for 'support' which often leads to money being siphoned off. Many a times the victims are not experts in handling large sums of money and often gets misguided (back to poverty).
srai
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by srai »

^^^
Good on you for your support! Would recommend that you pay directly to their school for their fees rather than donating money to a discretionary fund.
srai
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by srai »

^^^
Or donate to trust-worthy small charities doing work in the area of your support interest and geographic location.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjayc »

Bharat Biotech Announcement on COVAXIN® Pricing, Procurement

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Bharat Biotech hereby communicates the following message regarding pricing of COVAXIN® for Central Government, State Governments, and Private Hospitals, we believe it is pertinent to place facts on record for the Media and the public at large, so that they can understand and appreciate our efforts.

Vaccine pricing depends on numerous factors: At the outset, one must remember that the pricing of vaccines and other pharmaceutical products heavily relies on a series of factors; the cost of goods & raw materials, product failures, at risk product development outlays, product overages, the entire capital expenditure for setting up sufficient manufacturing facilities, sales and distribution expenses, procurement volumes and commitments besides other regular business expenditures.

In this context, let us look at the specifics. The whole-virion Inactivated Vero Cell vaccines (COVAXIN® derives from this technology platform) are highly complex to manufacture since the critical ingredient is based on live viruses which require highly sophisticated, multiple level containment and purification methods. Such high standards of purification automatically lead to significant process losses and low yields save the outcome of a highly purified and safe vaccine. This is evident from the excellent safety contours of COVAXIN® with an impressive supply of more than 40 million doses to date. It is emblematic that Bharat Biotech has not sought Indemnity from the Govt of India for any adverse events from COVAXIN®.

Complex manufacturing process: In fact, the sheer complexity of the COVAXIN® manufacturing process is manifested by the fact that it requires about 10,000 sq meters of area to manufacture around 200 million doses of the vaccine annually. In comparison, the same quantity of live virus vaccines can be manufactured from mere 1,500 sq meters. Due to the highly contagious nature of the live SARS-CoV-2 virus, more stringent Biosafety Level-3 (BSL-3) containment facilities are required for the manufacturing of COVAXIN®.

Every batch of manufactured product is subjected to more than 200 quality control tests, prior to its release. It is exactly this complexity that has kept away other companies from developing vaccines, especially whole virion inactivated vaccines. The SARS CoV2 virus provided by ICMR-NIV is also equally available to other manufacturers who wish to develop and manufacture such a vaccine. Companies would need access to cell lines, BSL3 manufacturing & quality control facilities, and several well trained technical teams, to manufacture COVAXIN®.

Why is COVAXIN® more expensive for the private sector: Another key point of discussion has been about pricing our vaccines for private sector players which is significantly higher than that given to governments and large procurement agencies. This is purely due to fundamental business reasons, ranging from low procurement volumes, high distribution costs and retail margins among few others as explained above.

As directed by the Govt of India, less than 10% of our total production of COVAXIN® to date has been supplied to private hospitals, while most of the remaining quantity was supplied to State and Central Governments. In such a scenario the weighted average price of COVAXIN® for all supplies realized by Bharat Biotech is less than ₹ 250 / dose. Going forward, ~75% of the capacity will be supplied to State and Central Governments with only 25% going to private hospitals.

The supply price of COVAXIN® to the government of India at ₹ 150 / dose, is a non-competitive price and clearly not sustainable in the long run. Hence a higher price in private markets is required to offset part of the costs. There are live examples of such pricing policies where Human Papilloma virus vaccine is priced for GAVI supplies at ~ $ 4.5 / dose (~ ₹ 320), but is also available in the private market at ~ ₹ 3500 / dose. Rotavirus vaccines are supplied to the Govt of India at ~₹ 60/ dose, but is also available in the private market at ~ ₹ 1700 / dose. The prices for COVID-19 vaccines internationally have varied between ~ $10 to ~ $37 / dose, (~ ₹ 730 - ~ ₹ 2700/ dose).

Private procurement is only discretionary: Unlike most medicines and therapeutics, vaccines are provided free of cost by the Govt of India to all eligible Indian citizens. Thus, the procurement of vaccines by private hospitals is optional and not mandatory, albeit it gives a choice to citizens who are willing to pay for better convenience. In our view, the question of product pricing is only of extraneous interest to all concerned, especially when the same vaccine is made available free of cost.

Bharat Biotech has so far invested over ₹ 500 crores at risk from its own resources for product development, clinical trials and setting up of manufacturing facilities for COVAXIN®. The support from The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) was with respect to provision of the SARS CoV2 virus, animal studies, virus characterization, test kits and partial funding for clinical trial sites. In return for this valuable support, Bharat Biotech will pay royalties to ICMR and the National Institute of Virology (NIV), based on product sales. Royalties are also payable to Virovax towards the licensure of IMDG agonist molecules.

Bharat Biotech is investing in new facilities and repurposing existing ones across several states in India for enhancing the production of COVAXIN®. It is pertinent to mention here that the urgent need to set up a significant number of manufacturing facilities and to divert existing ones for COVAXIN®, has resulted in reduced production of other vaccines at our facilities, leading to loss in revenues. We have been extremely diligent in selecting manufacturing facilities and partners, with the required levels of containment, capabilities and expertise. Product development activities towards the development of vaccines against newer variants is also underway at our facilities.

Low product price realization dispirits domestic R&D: Lastly, it should be noted that companies such as Bharat Biotech, which are innovators with specialized expertise in product development, and large scale manufacturing, should be allowed to maintain a differential pricing strategy for Governments and private hospitals. It is distressing to see that a large country like India has a very basic level of innovation in vaccines and pharmaceutical products.

It may well be argued that the low-price realization for home-grown innovators constraints innovation and product development in India. In the absence of a dual pricing system, Indian vaccine and pharmaceutical companies risk being reduced to mere contract manufacturers with intellectual property licensed from other nations.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Weekly average vaccination rate over last 5 weeks.


date. >>> Weekly Average doses
May 17. >>> 16.75 lacs
May 24. >>> 20.12 lacs
May 31. >>> 25.01 lacs
June 7. >>> 28.80 lacs
June 14. >>> 32.63 lacs


Seems like linear growth. Let's see if we end with > 36 lacs average this week.
Uttam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/daily-cov ... r-s-sharma
In a positive development, the chairman of the government's empowered group on vaccine administration (EGVAC), RS Sharma has exuded confidence that the daily vaccinations will go up to five million doses within the next ten days, reports Economic Times.

"We are already vaccinating 3.5 million people every day. I am very sure we will reach five million in a matter of 10 days." Sharma was quoted as saying
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Recent data published in Lancet:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... ltext#sec1

2 doses of vaccine needed to prevent symptomatic COVID.

Vaccine Efficacy (from UK data)
Pfizer 1 dose: 33% 2 doses: 83%
Astra Zeneca 1 dose: 33% 2 doses: 61%
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Data from India leave no doubt that vaccines work - In fully vaccinated people, extremely few cases of deaths or ICU admission. Data from many large hospitals (and other places) clearly indicate that among fully vaccinated health care workers virtually close to zero percentage of ICU admission/hospitalization of these workers.

UK Hospital data also shows majority of admissions are from unvaccinated younger people than fully vaccinated old people.

The delta variant - published data is showing 2x probability ( compared even with alpha variants) of hospitalization..
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Uttam wrote:Weekly average vaccination rate over last 5 weeks.


date. >>> Weekly Average doses
May 17. >>> 16.75 lacs
May 24. >>> 20.12 lacs
May 31. >>> 25.01 lacs
June 7. >>> 28.80 lacs
June 14. >>> 32.63 lacs


Seems like linear growth. Let's see if we end with > 36 lacs average this week.
fell down to 27 lakhs today
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

vijayk wrote:
Uttam wrote:Weekly average vaccination rate over last 5 weeks.


date. >>> Weekly Average doses
May 17. >>> 16.75 lacs
May 24. >>> 20.12 lacs
May 31. >>> 25.01 lacs
June 7. >>> 28.80 lacs
June 14. >>> 32.63 lacs


Seems like linear growth. Let's see if we end with > 36 lacs average this week.
fell down to 27 lakhs today
Numbers fall slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday. I think 7 day avg will still go up.

As predicted here supply situation has improved and also the relaxing of quota for 18-44 has also helped. This group has the least amount of vaccine hesitancy. Hope fully urban center vaccination Crosses 50 % in a few months
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Didn't really think of this weak link. Explains how lockdowns work just by being easy to enforce and verify.

Kumbh Mela: Probe flags around 1 lakh 'fake' COVID-19 test results
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

vera_k
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Think this group needs to start publishing the minutes of every meeting within a week or two.

We didn't back doubling of vaccine dosing gap: Scientists
"Eight to 12 weeks is something we all accepted, 12 to 16 weeks is something the government has come out with"
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

ZyCov-D seems very close to getting done with Phase.3 and seeing EUA:
Zydus Cadila may soon seek emergency use authorisation for Covid-19 vaccine
Zydus Cadila may soon seek emergency use authorization (EUA) for its DNA-plasmid technology-based Covid-19 vaccine from India’s drug regulator. If approved, this would be the first DNA-plasmid vaccine in the world.

This could also be India’s first vaccine for children aged 12 years and above as the company has conducted trials on the age group. The decision, however, lies with the regulator.

“The data analysis from the phase 3 trials is almost ready. The company may soon seek EUA for its vaccine,” a government official said.

ZyCoV-D, the second indigenous vaccine after Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin, is a three-dose vaccine — to be administered at day 0, day 28, and day 56. The firm has said it is also working on a two-dose regimen of this vaccine.

Sharvil Patel, managing director of Cadila Healthcare, had said in April that the firm was working on trials to check if a two-dose regimen also worked. The clinical trials are being conducted on children — 12 years and above.

Cadila Healthcare’s ZyCoV-D would be administered through a needle-free injection system (NFIS). Typically, in an NFIS, a jet of fluid is accelerated to high speed, providing it significant penetrating power through a fine-diameter nozzle when placed against the skin. Patel felt the vaccine might have higher acceptance among children scared of needles. ZyCoV-D is stable at room temperatures, making the logistics of the vaccine easier.

The stability data of the vaccine candidate showed that ZyCoV-D can be stored at 2 to 8 degrees Celsius for the long term and 25 degrees Celsius for the short term (a few months).

The company is setting up a 120 million dose per year manufacturing plant for this vaccine, which requires a Biosafety level-1 (BSL-1) facility. It is also tying up with partners to have a total production capacity of 200 million doses.

The technology is scalable, the company has said. And since the vaccine does not deal with a live virus, a BSL-1 plant is sufficient for manufacturing. This would open up possibilities for manufacturing tie-ups to scale up production for Zydus Cadila, a challenge its peer vaccine maker Bharat Biotech has faced. Covaxin, an inactivated virus vaccine, requires a BSL-3 lab.

The government has estimated that there would be an availability of 50 million doses of ZyCoV-D between August and December.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Has Biological E started their Phase 3 trials yet?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

vera_k wrote:Think this group needs to start publishing the minutes of every meeting within a week or two.

We didn't back doubling of vaccine dosing gap: Scientists
"Eight to 12 weeks is something we all accepted, 12 to 16 weeks is something the government has come out with"
The headline is misleading. The panel had endorsed (based on then available UK data) a gap of between 8-12 weeks.
There was no data at the time, for actual patient reaction beyond 12 weeks. AZ and WHO are fine with a 12-16 week gap. There may not have been anything wrong if data had been extrapolated beyond 12 weeks, based on lab research. That said, GOI needs to be more proactive with its communication. In the absence of info, the Media will talk to all kinds of `experts' who want their 2 mins of fame.
Pratyush
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

Kakkaji wrote:Has Biological E started their Phase 3 trials yet?
They had received the clearance for phase 3 on 24th April. But no updates on the actual tests since then on the website of the company.

Biological News
chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

This guy is still peddling his woke tripe, while vaccine hesitancy is endangering one and all.


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