Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Zynda wrote:I had posted an article of an interview with one of the major Indian Pharma CEO who had said that they were in talks with Pfizer to manf. Paxlovid in India but it may take another 5-6 months before it comes to market. I hope things are moving much faster behind the scenes. Perhaps Amber G can throw more light...on the same subject, Amber G, are there any data/reports of effectiveness of Paxlovid treatment among patients during the current wave in US/EU?
I have also read/followed such articles. From what I know and heard Paxlovid has been *very* successful (against Omicron variant also - "effective-ness" close to 80-90% ) but there is a great shortage (it is still very expensive) and very hard to find in our local hospitals in USA. Indian Manufactures can help a lot to speed up production..(I think per reports patent issues with Pfizer have been solved (Thanks to Biden/Modi's admin/push) - for a few years Indian Phramas can produce it to help India and others. Speeding up process has some technical difficulties/challenges too -- it does take a long to produce with current methods/capacity and innovations are needed to speed up the process. I do hope that things will move faster as Indian Pharma companies have shown that they are very good.
Added later: (I posted it some time ago - I has some good background about Pfizer's Paxolovid:
>>> Old message:
-- At present it has approval in USA and Doctors in India are quite excited - Hopefully get it approved and have India manufacture it on fast track. (Pfizer, if everything works will license it to be manufactured )

A article by Dr. Topal : Why Paxlovid is a Just-in-Time Breakthrough
The first potent anti-Covid pill will be a big help

We’re desperately in need of some good news—this is it. This week the results from 2 clinical trials of Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir) became available, coinciding with the continued (second) surge of Delta in the United States and the rapid emergence of the Omicron strain. The timing for validation of the potency and safety of a whole new approach to tackling the virus couldn’t be better.

Another is a Nice Video by Dr Seheult who explains this Pfizer COVID pill, how it works, who it's for
and what is the evidence
[youtube >>> GMMTw0MAT-8 <<< youtube]
Last edited by Amber G. on 10 Jan 2022 21:49, edited 1 time in total.
A Sharma
BRFite
Posts: 1206
Joined: 20 May 2003 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by A Sharma »

Any recommendation on what booster to get in India if the first 2 doses were Pfizer?
TIA
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^
A Sharma wrote:Any recommendation on what booster to get in India if the first 2 doses were Pfizer?
TIA
FWIW CDC recommendation for Booster Shots:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/booster-shot.html
Which booster can you get ((If your first two shots were Pfizer):
Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna (mRNA COVID-19 vaccines) are preferred in most* situations
Teens 12–17 years old may only get a Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine booster
(In India Moderna is approved - don't know how available it is.
Also at present - India, if you are eligible, you get the *same* vaccine as your first two - per their recommendation)
Aldonkar
BRFite
Posts: 202
Joined: 27 Feb 2020 18:46

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Aldonkar »

Amber G. wrote:
Zynda wrote:I had posted an article of an interview with one of the major Indian Pharma CEO who had said that they were in talks with Pfizer to manf. Paxlovid in India but it may take another 5-6 months before it comes to market. I hope things are moving much faster behind the scenes. Perhaps Amber G can throw more light...on the same subject, Amber G, are there any data/reports of effectiveness of Paxlovid treatment among patients during the current wave in US/EU?
I have also read/followed such articles. From what I know and heard Paxlovid has been *very* successful (against Omicron variant also - "effective-ness" close to 80-90% ) but there is a great shortage (it is still very expensive) and very hard to find in our local hospitals in USA. Indian Manufactures can help a lot to speed up production..(I think per reports patent issues with Pfizer have been solved (Thanks to Biden/Modi's admin/push) - for a few years Indian Phramas can produce it to help India and others. Speeding up process has some technical difficulties/challenges too -- it does take a long to produce with current methods/capacity and innovations are needed to speed up the process. I do hope that things will move faster as Indian Pharma companies have shown that they are very good.
Added later: (I posted it some time ago - I has some good background about Pfizer's Paxolovid:
>>> Old message:
-- At present it has approval in USA and Doctors in India are quite excited - Hopefully get it approved and have India manufacture it on fast track. (Pfizer, if everything works will license it to be manufactured )

A article by Dr. Topal : Why Paxlovid is a Just-in-Time Breakthrough
The first potent anti-Covid pill will be a big help

We’re desperately in need of some good news—this is it. This week the results from 2 clinical trials of Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir) became available, coinciding with the continued (second) surge of Delta in the United States and the rapid emergence of the Omicron strain. The timing for validation of the potency and safety of a whole new approach to tackling the virus couldn’t be better.

Another is a Nice Video by Dr Seheult who explains this Pfizer COVID pill, how it works, who it's for
and what is the evidence
[youtube >>> GMMTw0MAT-8 <<< youtube]
Just before Christmas GSK, the UK pharmaceutical company, announced that it had gained EU approval for sotrovimab, which it had developed together with Vir Inc (a US company). The drug is a monoclonal antibody (hence the name ending --mab. They also claim approval in the US and provisional approval in the UK.

Today I saw an announcement that Novartis (a Swiss pharma) have a similar drug called Ensovibep, which is a multi-specific DARPin (Designed Ankyrin Repeat Protein). They claim that it has been 78% effective in treatment of Covid patients. Sorry for the long link.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... KuvWnaIl4u
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

A Sharma wrote:Any recommendation on what booster to get in India if the first 2 doses were Pfizer?
TIA
The official MoHFW guidelines are here and are your only authoritative source.
Guidelines for COVID-19 vaccination of children between 15-18 years and precaution dose to HCWs, FLWs & 60+ population with comorbidities
3. All persons aged 60 years and above with comorbidities who have received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine, will on Doctor’s advice be provided with a precaution dose from 10th January 2022. The prioritization and sequencing of this precaution dose would be based on the completion of 9 months i.e. 39 weeks from the date of administration of second dose.
In short: there's no defined policy here for visitors from abroad. Further, the Indian policy is 39 weeks (9 months) after second dose, so far only for a small group of eligible people. Depending on your current place of residence your booster interval may be shorter, and thus you could do it sooner than you'd be eligible in India.

To all: Please avoid offering advice in the Indian context without a reference to official guidelines off MoHFW or ICMR.

Nearly 1 million precautionary doses were done today (Jan 10), out of 9.6 million total. Every day barring Sunday since Jan 3 has been over 9 million doses, so far.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Suraj wrote:
A Sharma wrote:Any recommendation on what booster to get in India if the first 2 doses were Pfizer?
TIA
The official MoHFW guidelines are here and are your only authoritative source.
Guidelines for COVID-19 vaccination of children between 15-18 years and precaution dose to HCWs, FLWs & 60+ population with comorbidities
3. All persons aged 60 years and above with comorbidities who have received two doses of COVID-19 vaccine, will on Doctor’s advice be provided with a precaution dose from 10th January 2022. The prioritization and sequencing of this precaution dose would be based on the completion of 9 months i.e. 39 weeks from the date of administration of second dose.
In short: there's no defined policy here for visitors from abroad. Further, the Indian policy is 39 weeks (9 months) after second dose, so far only for a small group of eligible people. Depending on your current place of residence your booster interval may be shorter, and thus you could do it sooner than you'd be eligible in India.

To all: Please avoid offering advice in the Indian context without a reference to official guidelines off MoHFW or ICMR.

Nearly 1 million precautionary doses were done today (Jan 10), out of 9.6 million total. Every day barring Sunday since Jan 3 has been over 9 million doses, so far.
Do we have enough stock to recommend booster dose for all above 50?
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

vijayk wrote:Do we have enough stock to recommend booster dose for all above 50?
At what interval from second dose ? 9 months means the number of people involved is far too small to have any impact on supply. Even if the interval is reduced to 6 months it won't be much of a problem - especially not if the ongoing trials for the use of Corbevax as the booster are done in time.

I think the main imperative of the government is logistics. There's more than just doses involved. There's the entire logistical chain to think of - the workload of the HCWs/FLWs, the supply of consumables (syringes, wipes etc), the availability of seating to accommodate the number of people showing up.

Lets look at the numbers here - we were' averaging 6-8 million per day for months on end. This is manageable. Now we're up to 9.5-10 million a day because of 15+ group and booster group. The only days of January that have <9m are Sundays. In 2021 the most number of consecutive days ever seen with >9m doses/day was three days. Last week, every day from Mon-Sat was >9m. In fact all but one was >9.5m. Here's what my data shows for 10 days of Jan:
Jan 01 Sat 3,127,559
Jan 02 Sun 2,837,478
Jan 03 Mon 9,247,316
Jan 04 Tue 10,116,832
Jan 05 Wed 9,566,037
Jan 06 Thu 9,881,992
Jan 07 Fri 9,519,831
Jan 08 Sat 9,519,776
Jan 09 Sun 3,464,861
Jan 10 Mon 9,630,000

These are incredibly high daily vaccination numbers - India alone accounts for 29% of global vaccinations in January to date. The dose availability continues to be stable, but doses are not the only thing involved here. There's also the 25-30% greater impact on the workforce who are also impacted by Omicron, in addition to everything else. E.g. locally at Stanford hospital, ~10% of the staff are out sick. This is why the HCWs/FLWs are highest priority for boosters.

The government is doing the smart thing by opening up only to the extent the full logistical chain will support. Remember, effective execution matters above all here. They throw open the gates and cause another stampede for doses, it will be a negative thing for everyone. What they're doing now is an organized, smooth process that's still performing daily vaccinations at the combined rate of Europe + all of the Americas + Africa.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Mumbai cases dropped for 3rd day in a row. If this continues, amazing SUTRA model is working

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-m ... 23-2927814
Mumbai reports 13,648 new COVID-19 cases and 5 deaths, positivity rate down to 23%
Mumbai’s Covid-19 cases dipped for third day in a row as the state reported 13, 648 new COVID-19 cases on Monday.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Image
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Image

not pretty ... scary ... omricon is not mild
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Image
Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5352
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cain Marko »

Amber G. wrote:
Zynda wrote:I had posted an article of an interview with one of the major Indian Pharma CEO who had said that they were in talks with Pfizer to manf. Paxlovid in India but it may take another 5-6 months before it comes to market. I hope things are moving much faster behind the scenes. Perhaps Amber G can throw more light...on the same subject, Amber G, are there any data/reports of effectiveness of Paxlovid treatment among patients during the current wave in US/EU?
I have also read/followed such articles. From what I know and heard Paxlovid has been *very* successful (against Omicron variant also - "effective-ness" close to 80-90% ) but there is a great shortage (it is still very expensive) and very hard to find in our local hospitals in USA. Indian Manufactures can help a lot to speed up production..(I think per reports patent issues with Pfizer have been solved (Thanks to Biden/Modi's admin/push) - for a few years Indian Phramas can produce it to help India and others. Speeding up process has some technical difficulties/challenges too -- it does take a long to produce with current methods/capacity and innovations are needed to speed up the process. I do hope that things will move faster as Indian Pharma companies have shown that they are very good.
Added later: (I posted it some time ago - I has some good background about Pfizer's Paxolovid:
>>> Old message:
-- At present it has approval in USA and Doctors in India are quite excited - Hopefully get it approved and have India manufacture it on fast track. (Pfizer, if everything works will license it to be manufactured )

A article by Dr. Topal : Why Paxlovid is a Just-in-Time Breakthrough
The first potent anti-Covid pill will be a big help

We’re desperately in need of some good news—this is it. This week the results from 2 clinical trials of Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir) became available, coinciding with the continued (second) surge of Delta in the United States and the rapid emergence of the Omicron strain. The timing for validation of the potency and safety of a whole new approach to tackling the virus couldn’t be better.
Any idea how Nirmatrelvir compares with Merck's Molnupiravir?
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Cain Marko wrote:
Any idea how Nirmatrelvir compares with Merck's Molnupiravir?
First thing is Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir / ritonavir) is yet not approved in India and even in USA it is very hard to get. Molnupiravir is approved in India - so it is very important what is available.

There are various comparison see for example: https://www.idstewardship.com/compariso ... vid-pills/ to get good basic info -- there are many other such standard texts.

In short - Paxlovid is much more effective (practical sense 'effective-ness" about 90% for reducing hospital stay and extremely effective in preventing death (almost 0 deaths) and in a class by itself - It also works much better for Omicron - (of for any other variant - because of the nature how it works). This compares favorably to about 30% for Molnupiravir (for reducing relative risk for hospitalization) - Like all statistics - doctors should read all the fine-points but yes, there is understandably quite a bit of excitement for Plaxovid type medicine (as it is different than other such medicines).
Basically:

From above the Key takeaways: (See above for reference link for details)

Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir and ritonavir) and molnupiravir are two oral antiviral treatments that are authorized to treat mild to moderate COVID-19.(In USA - In India Paxlovid is not yet approved). These COVID-19 pills are only recommended for people with a high risk of developing severe illness.

Both Paxlovid and molnupiravir are taken by mouth twice daily for 5 days. They should both be started within 5 days of first feeling symptoms.

Studies suggest that Paxlovid can lower the risk of severe COVID-19 for high-risk people by almost 90%.
Studies suggest molnupiravir can lower this risk by about 30%.
Last edited by Amber G. on 11 Jan 2022 12:12, edited 1 time in total.
Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1596
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Gyan »

Molnupiravir is easily available in India but no demand. Pax Is awaited
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 822236.cms
The current "super exponential growth phase" of Covid-19 has started to wane in a number of states and union territories in India, according to the latest tracker published by the University of Cambridge's Judge Business School.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Gyan wrote:Molnupiravir is easily available in India but no demand. Pax Is awaited
https://www.news9live.com/health/covid- ... col-146227

New Delhi: The ICMR's National Task Force for COVID-19 has decided against including antiviral drug Molnupiravir in the Clinical Management Protocol for COVID-19 as of now, official sources said on Tuesday. The experts of the task force cited safety concerns and argued that Molnupiravir was not of many benefits in COVID treatment to arrive at the decision in a meeting held on Monday. According to the Health Ministry, Molnupiravir is an antiviral drug that inhibits SARS-CoV-2 replication by viral mutagenesis. This anti-COVID pill got the Drug Regulator General of India's approval on December 28 for restricted use in emergencies.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile News and tidbits around the world.
in US: basic stats:
145,000 Americans hospitalized with COVID-19, highest since pandemic began.
Nearly 1.5 million new cases, (includes . weekend backlogs)

(- New cases: 1,459,005 - Average: 771,516 (+59,005) (- States reporting: 45/50)
- In hospital: 140,268 (+4,158) - In ICU: 23,884 (+845) - New deaths: 2,235
- Average: 1,704 (+47) ).
(Some trends I have tried using SUTRA's model - gives peak around late January/Early February - trajectory quite different in different states).

UK ==> COVID update: Omicron wave appears to have peaked.
(- New cases: 120,821 - Average: 157,666 (-13,986))

In China - you get a reward of 10,000 yuan if you reporting someone who later tests positive.
There is a travel warning - going to Canada (from US) - due to rapid rise there.

In India: Trend nearly ~10 million doses per day (50% first dose, 40% second dose 10% boosters)
(25% 15-17yrs, 50% 18-44yrs rest older people)
arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4570
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Amber G. wrote:(Some trends I have tried using SUTRA's model - gives peak around late January/Early February - trajectory quite different in different states).
Are these trends published somewhere? https://www.sutra-india.in/ is hopelessly out of date (was very useful in the past), and https://sutra-consortium.in/ has a static update (links to a PDF file) that is not useful for most states except MH and DL.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

arshyam wrote:
Amber G. wrote:(Some trends I have tried using SUTRA's model - gives peak around late January/Early February - trajectory quite different in different states).
Are these trends published somewhere? https://www.sutra-india.in/ is hopelessly out of date (was very useful in the past), and https://sutra-consortium.in/ has a static update (links to a PDF file) that is not useful for most states except MH and DL.
The math (methods) and data SUTRA uses is easily available to public so if you have resources you can draw your own graphs (using your estimates for parameters to project).
(Nice place to get data, IMHO is (https://covid19tracker.in/).
I think they (IITH Group) are still trying to consolidate all these resource to one site ..Hopefully when the phase becomes stable ( may be one more week of data --) they may update those sites (Probably quite a few people may be interested in seeing those graphs).
(Whenever some drastic change happens - like introduction to new variant - which this model (or any other model except wild guess) can not predict - the model has consistency/phase-point check - to see how reliable the data are (In the change there is lot of error/delay etc in reporting numbers) before accurate predictions can be made).

Meanwhile India reports 194,720 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since May 2021..

The peak timing is much more certain but the height of the peak can change drastically...
arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4570
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Amber G. wrote:The math (methods) and data SUTRA uses is easily available to public so if you have resources you can draw your own graphs (using your estimates for parameters to project).
(Nice place to get data, IMHO is (https://covid19tracker.in/).
If one were to use one's own method to derive one's own projections, why tom-tom the Sutra model? Genuine Q, not trolling, since I used to follow this regularly during the previous and felt the projections were fairly accurate. I thought SUTRA, by relying on some of the best minds in field was making projections to enable the govt to take decisions, and the lack of such (publicly available) projections this time around implies less confidence in their own predictions? I am no scientist, just an aam aadmi hoping to get a sense of when will this damn thing get over, while govts in India are taking their usual ham-fisted approach through lockdowns (euphemistically called curfews now) that cause more economic harm that any good.
I think they (IITH Group) are still trying to consolidate all these resource to one site ..Hopefully when the phase becomes stable ( may be one more week of data --) they may update those sites (Probably quite a few people may be interested in seeing those graphs).
(Whenever some drastic change happens - like introduction to new variant - which this model (or any other model except wild guess) can not predict - the model has consistency/phase-point check - to see how reliable the data are (In the change there is lot of error/delay etc in reporting numbers) before accurate predictions can be made).
Fair enough. But my questions arise simply because the data seemed more readily available in the previous wave(s) and that has regressed this time around. All these "conditions apply" clauses notwithstanding.
arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4570
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

This is perhaps the simplest explanation as to why these charts aren't available like before:

When Is The Peak? When Is The End? What IIT-Kanpur's Manindra Agrawal Says About Third Wave In India by Bhaswati Guha Majumder, Swarajya
The IIT-Kanpur explained that “having learned our lesson from the second wave, when our predictions went wrong, this time, we are a little more cautious”, and now they are predicting a complete loss of immunity, which is the worst case.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

If one were to use one's own method to derive one's own projections, why tom-tom the Sutra model? Genuine Q, not trolling, since I used to follow this regularly during the previous and felt the projections were fairly accurate.
Trying to answer (I am assuming it is a genuine Q - Take it FWIW)
(Long post - please ignore if not interested)

1 - The big strength of SUTRA model is that it *does not* depend on "guesses " (or your own 'estimation') or "expert's" secret knowledge. It is less like astrology (where 'experts' interpret the planetary positions etc) and more like Newton's laws to calculate orbits (based on data/parameters)
In other words *any one* can use the model and will get the same graphs using the same data (publicly available data) - there are no secrets. (This have been tested on various countries data and graph derived by model comes out pretty close to a real graph except when situation changes drastically)

2 - Sure there might be some guesswork when we need or have to make future 'projections' but NO GUESSWORK is needed with the current trajectory. *Projections* here depend on some assumptions which may go wrong. *Predictions* are generally fairly accurate because it is based on data only. But *predictions* assume no drastic change in conditions. (For example graphs posted in BRF and widely published in August/September 2020 were fairly accurate till February 2021 - but then there was a clear shift in phase - mainly due to introduction of Delta --- The phase started changing and projections were started differing with actual values. Again after May 2021 - the graphs were very accurate till the introduction of Omicron.

-3- There are obviously many 'models' used by various scientists but what sets this SUTRA apart from all other models (which I know) is it treats epidemic like Covid where most of the 'infected' people are *undetected* (which do spread the virus). In this way Covid is different than other epidemics (where we have very good idea about the people who are infected).

4 - Most models use parameter values based on theoretical (or expert medical knowledge) values about, say xyz variant's contact parameter is estimated as such.. Or let us take Omicron's R factor 2 times delta etc..*ALL* parameter values of SUTRA are derived from data produced by pandemic. So it may take some time to get/collect data but once things stabilizes the graphs are quite reliable - till the next phase change. (In practice - looking at India and US historic data I would say about 60-70% of the time trajectory is stable - error in predicting next 6 weeks is about 10% - but about 30% or the time prediction is quite difficult. (It is like calculating satellite's orbit - stable phase we can calculate but when things are changing fast - it is very difficult).


5 - The strength of SUTRA is (no other model to my knowledge has this) that there are very accurate mathematical way to estimate/calculate 'undetected' cases - even if we don't have good testing strategy. And powerful mathematical tools to see how reliable our predictions are (how stable the 'phase' is).. Drifting phase may be of different duration but within a few weeks it generally become stable.

6 - At present phase is not stable - Mumbai (and perhaps Delhi) prediction (especially timing of the peak) is more reliable but height is not -- Again it is not a question of Prof Agrawal being or was "wrong" . Data is data.

7. Some of the assumptions Prof Agrawal (and his team) made, as he was quite clear in stating - about Indian trajectory being similar to SA - did not pan out to be correct -- The contact parameter depends not only on Omicron but also how the local population behave (and lockdowns etc) so being not entirely accurate is not surprising.
8. It is also possible (and likely) that SUTRA team is letting GoI know a little ahead than the general public, and think about how they like to deal with newspaper reporters.

Sorry for the long post -- Hope it is helpful to some people here. Hope brfadmin don't delete this post.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Image
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

arshyam wrote:This is perhaps the simplest explanation as to why these charts aren't available like before:

When Is The Peak? When Is The End? What IIT-Kanpur's Manindra Agrawal Says About Third Wave In India by Bhaswati Guha Majumder, Swarajya
The above article by Mr. Majumder is very sloppy - sometimes silly and inaccurate in even elementary points. For example:
The SUTRA model

Agrawal explained that the basic model was developed almost a century ago. It's known as the SUTRA model, and it has been quite successful in forecasting the spread of multiple pandemics. To accommodate for specific local ground realities, the team has made some changes to the model.

“We have allowed the parameters to learn their values from input data itself.

(SUTRA was not developed "a century ago" (it may seem similar to older models but it is quited different from other models developed in last 100 years .) and the sentence like "allowed parameters to learn their values" is quite silly.. (and I can definitely say those can not be direct "quotes" from a mathematician like Prof Agrawal - so why misquote?).

How difficult it is for a magazine/newspaper to find a reporter/editor to do sensible reporting. /sigh/

BTW - SUTRA stands for "Susceptible Undetected Tested_positive Rrecovered Approach... (I like the acronym as it means formula in Sanskrit :) )
Last edited by Amber G. on 13 Jan 2022 03:31, edited 1 time in total.
sanjayc
BRFite
Posts: 1091
Joined: 22 Aug 2016 21:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjayc »

COVAXIN® (BBV152) Booster Shown to Neutralize Both Omicron and Delta Variants of SARS-CoV-2

• Booster dose of vaccine, COVAXIN® (BBV152), generated robust neutralizing antibody responses against both Omicron (B.1.529) and Delta (B.1.617.2) using a live virus neutralization assay
• 100% of test serum samples showed neutralization of the Delta variant and more than 90% of serum samples showed neutralization of the Omicron variant
• These data add to the body of evidence that the broad-spectrum mechanism of action of a whole virus inactivated COVID-19 vaccine, like COVAXIN® (BBV152), is a viable option in this continuously evolving pandemic


Hyderabad, India, January 12, 2022 - Bharat Biotech, a global leader in vaccine innovation and developer of vaccines for infectious diseases, today announced results from a study conducted at Emory University demonstrating that sera from subjects who received a booster dose of COVAXIN® (BBV152) six months after getting a primary two-dose series of COVAXIN® (BBV152), neutralized the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants. Earlier studies demonstrated the neutralizing potential of COVAXIN® (BBV152) against SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern Alpha, Beta, Delta, Zeta and Kappa.

The study will be published on the pre-print server, medRXiv, shortly.

Sera samples from individuals who received a booster of COVAXIN® (BBV152) were observed to be effective in neutralizing Omicron and Delta variants on a live virus neutralization assay. The neutralization activity of COVAXIN®-boosted sera was comparable to what has been observed in mRNA vaccine-boosted sera against the Omicron variant. More than 90% of all individuals boosted with COVAXIN® (BBV152) showed neutralizing antibodies. All participants received an initial two-dose schedule of COVAXIN® (BBV152) at Day 0 and Day 28.

“As the dominant COVID-19 variant throughout the world, Omicron poses a serious public health concern,” said Mehul Suthar, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Emory Vaccine Center and who led the laboratory analysis. “Data from this preliminary analysis show individuals receiving a booster dose of COVAXIN® have a significant immune response to both the Omicron and Delta variants. These findings suggest that a booster dose has the potential to reduce disease severity and hospitalizations.”

Dr. Krishna Ella, Chairman and Managing Director of Bharat Biotech said, “We are in a continuous state of innovation and product development for COVAXIN®. The positive neutralization responses against the Omicron and Delta variants, validates our hypothesis of a multi-epitope vaccine generating both humoral and cell mediated immune responses. Our goals of developing a global vaccine against COVID-19 have been achieved with the use of COVAXIN® as a universal vaccine for adults and children.”

“The global impact of Omicron shows us that the fight against COVID-19 continues, and we’re encouraged that these data demonstrate the value of COVAXIN® as a primary and booster vaccine,” said Dr. Shankar Musunuri, Chairman, CEO and Co-Founder, Ocugen, Inc. “These results show how a broad-spectrum vaccine has the potential ability to address ever-shifting public health challenges such as new variants and mutations.”

COVAXIN® is formulated uniquely such that the same dosage can be administered to adults and children alike. COVAXIN® is a ready-to-use, liquid vaccine, stored at 2 - 8°C, with 12 months shelf life and multi-dose vial policy. The same doses of vaccine can also be used for two-dose primary immunization in adults and children and for booster dose vaccinations, making it truly a universal vaccine.

About the study

In order to evaluate the effectiveness of COVAXIN® (BBV152) against the Omicron variant, Ocugen contracted with the Emory Vaccine Center (Atlanta, GA) to test human immune sera obtained from participants (n=13) in an ongoing Phase 2 clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04471519). Sera was collected 28-days post booster – six months following the primary two-dose series. Each sera was tested in a neutralization assay. Following three doses, the FRNT50 geometric mean titers (GMTs) of neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant measured in the samples was 75, compared to 480 against the Delta variant and 706 against the vaccine strain, D614G.

This study was sponsored by Ocugen, Inc. and Ocugen’s partner, Bharat Biotech, provided the sera of the subjects from the Phase 2 study.

About COVAXIN® (BBV152)

Covaxin was developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) - National Institute of Virology (NIV). COVAXIN® (BBV152) is a highly purified and inactivated vaccine that is manufactured using a vero cell manufacturing platform.

With more than 200 million doses having been administered to adults and children outside the U.S., COVAXIN® (BBV152) is currently authorized under emergency use in more than 20 countries, and emergency use authorization is in process in more than 60 other countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently added COVAXIN® (BBV152) to its list of vaccines authorized for emergency use. And, as many as 110 countries have agreed to mutual recognition of COVID-19 vaccination certificates with India that includes vaccination using COVAXIN® (BBV152).
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

SUTRA graph:
Phase in US is getting stable - end of drifting so some reliable predictions can be deduced.

Peak for US is predicted to be during January 15-18 (this has not changed) at around 1,000,000 cases/day (this has gone up a bit from last values -- but that was expected)

Image
(Image Credit: SUTRA team)

(There could be significant differences in the trajectory for different parts of USA - some states, the fall would be rapid etc)
(These graphs are quite consistent with other reputable graphs I am seeing for US)
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

For India - Drifting is still there in the data - (Not unexpected - there is a lot of amount of testing and reporting of the cases uncertainty - to get smooth data) but the timing of the peak (End of January ) is still valid. The height of the peak may be little uncertain.
(Hopefully when the phase stabilizes they will post it on IIT/H site I can share some more detail with more confidence)..

(The graph is below - a few more days later may be more reliable graph))

Image
SinghS
BRFite
Posts: 162
Joined: 11 Jul 2021 20:24

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by SinghS »

Thanks a lot Amber G for posting all the data and specially information regarding SUTRA. It is a wonderful 33 pages paper by Manindra Agrawal, Madhuri Kanitkar & Mathukumalli Vidyasagar

You have save a ton of my time by being exact about it. You have been of a great help.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Some more graphs: (These are or shortly will be on Sutra web-site and may be some newspapers):
- Mumbai - Phase is stable - The peak is (projected/posted in brf some time ago of ~24K ) will be smaller. (Around now the blue curve has turned sharply - good news)

Image
- Delhi - Similar story.
Image
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramana »

Thanks, AmberG for explaining the SUTRA model and its basis.
So from the above graph, the all India peak will be 7 lakhs and around 28 Jan or end of Jan.

Good to know.

If folks don't recall M Vidaysagr was the boy genius who went back and started CAIR, Bengaluru.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus ... hp_primary
Experts are seeing hopeful signs in the Boston area’s COVID-19 wastewater data
The wastewater data suggests the region is "over the peak" of omicron infections, though not hospitalizations.



Image
Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH @ashishkjha
With infections spiking, can be hard to see the light
But the peak of this wave is coming into view
Cases now falling in NYC, DC
MA wastewater shows big declines
Yes, parts of US still rising. And hospitals have many tough weeks ahead
But nationally, wave will crest. And soon
Good news in Northeast.

Do we test waste water in India? Good idea to do this to make public policy
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Image


We should consider vaccinating 12+
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

vijayk wrote:https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus ... hp_primary
Experts are seeing hopeful signs in the Boston area’s COVID-19 wastewater data
The wastewater data suggests the region is "over the peak" of omicron infections, though not hospitalizations.
<snip>
Do we test waste water in India? Good idea to do this to make public policy
Yes: It gets an early warning through these viral RNA copies obtained from wastewater.. don't know about how widespread it is and don't know if there is data base but many institutes in India do that and have monitoring data..The Indian sewerage system is fragmented unlike western countries, and testing could be incredibly challenging (with all septic tanks) but some scientists/institutes in India do that ...there is some good data - which has been quite useful - some published and give good information which is even used to validate some of our mathematical models.
(IIRC Seem to recall Prof. Manish Kumar, IIT Gandhinagar leads a team testing wastewater samples in Gujarat)
Last edited by Amber G. on 13 Jan 2022 08:56, edited 1 time in total.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

SinghS wrote:Thanks a lot Amber G for posting all the data and specially information regarding SUTRA. It is a wonderful 33 pages paper by Manindra Agrawal, Madhuri Kanitkar & Mathukumalli Vidyasagar

You have save a ton of my time by being exact about it. You have been of a great help.
ramana wrote:Thanks, AmberG for explaining the SUTRA model and its basis.
So from the above graph, the all India peak will be 7 lakhs and around 28 Jan or end of Jan.

Good to know.

Thanks SinghS and Ramana.
- The " 7 lakhs" number is not precise - as said the phase is not stable and perhaps a few more days collection of data to see if phase has become stable. The timing of peak is more reliable - but obviously it is not the same for the whole India - different parts in India will be peaking at slightly different time - and that is quite helpful for local resources.. Mumbai and Delhi timing is quite reliable.

The 7 lakh number could go higher (or it may be 4 lakh) - hopefully few more days data will give a much better value... (We physicists some time quite happy with order of magnitude calculations).



****
If folks don't recall M Vidaysagr was the boy genius who went back and started CAIR, Bengaluru.
BTW M Vidyasagar is none other than the famous son of even more famous Indian Mathematician M V Subbarao. On his birth century celebration all top number theorists had a week long seminar on his life. (See my math dhaga about those lectures - There was even one lecture on SUTRA given by Prof Agrawal.

M Vidyasagar was a PhD student in UW - around the same time Har Gobind Khorana , The Indian/American - Noble prize winner for cracking genetic code and synthesizing the first artificial gene... He (Prof Khorana) was a professor doing his world-famous research - then. What a small world - We are using Prof Khorana's work on genes and Prof Vidyasagar's mathematical models to fight this pandemic.

Simply wow!

(Also - As many may know here -( or can read my math dhaga's some 10 years old posts :) )- Prof. Agrawal is a world renowned mathematician - have done some great work in Number Theory. I am very impressed with Modi's government to rope in these two reputable scientist to lead the project of Math modeling.)
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramana »

Yes 7 lakhs is order of magnitude for planning purposes.
Dr Agarwal tweeted peak would be late Jan early Feb and about 4 to 6 lakhs.
This was a few days ago.
Good thing timing is narrowed.
nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1638
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

M Vidyasagar is also a member of the Fellow of the Royal Society- one a handful of few Indians to make the list. Incidentally with the exception of the first one (Parsee, I think) all the rest of are South Indians.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

India reports about 250K (247,417) new coronavirus cases -- the biggest one-day increase since May 2021.

(Big Change in ICMR's testing policy - reducing the number of required tests for those who are suspected to be exposed -- IOW if one does not show symptoms, one need not be tested. This may show a slight (trending down) change in *reported* cases in states where there was much more aggressive testing strategy. This may also mean one may also see a 'drift' in SUTRA's calculations - we will know in a few days if this makes any difference in parameters - There is a slight down ward trend in reported values from the model predicted value but does that mean beta/rho are changing or just that we are testing less number of people )

There is lot of discussion in Indian Media and scientific circles about this change in policy - and many reputable scientists have very different views on this policy.
See for example:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 91300.html
or different viewpoint here:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 92082.html
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile: By any measure the US situation is the worst in the world today, and clearly hasn't peaked yet.

Image

Per SUTRA model: we have another week for the rise in detected cases.
(Actual number of people who are shedding virus is about 4.5 times the number shown below)
Image

For US Friends" Please stay safe. Get that booster NOW! Get vaccinated (for 5+years) NOW! Wear a N95 Mask.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Similar some graphs for India: Please stay safe!
Image
(Fully vaccinated in India is about 68% of eligible population but about 45% of total population. The booster dose in India is about 3.3 Millions )

Per SUTRA model: we have another two week for the rise in detected cases.
(Also per SUTRA Model Number of total (including undetected ones) is about 30 times the numbers below)

Image

For Friends in India: Please stay safe. If eligible: Get that booster NOW ! Get vaccinated (15+) NOW! Wear a N95 Mask in indoor setting. Postpone that wedding (or any such function) for 4 weeks - by then the weather will be warm and you can have the whole function outside.

Go out, enjoy outdoor activities in open but avoid unnecessary crowds and traveling in airplanes and public transports
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.financialexpress.com/lifest ... s/2405858/
Booster dose of Covaxin effective against Omicron variant, new study shows
The company on Wednesday said that a study conducted by the Emory University, Atlanta, USA found that a booster dose after six months gap from the second dose is effective in neutralising the both the Delta and Omicron variants of the disease, the Indian Express reported. The study, which has huge ramifications for not only India but many other countries where Covaxin is being administered, will be published on the preprint server medRXiv soon.

The Hyderabad-based pharma giant in a statement said that more than 90 percent of individuals who participated in the clinical trial had shown neutralising antibodies. All the clinical trial participants had previously been vaccinated with two doses of Covaxin with an intervening gap of 28 days. The company said that as Omicron poses serious public health concern across the world, the positive results of a booster dose of Covaxin was significant.
Post Reply