Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/ramprasad_c/status/ ... 3964857346
Ram @ramprasad_c
The seriousness with which China is going about shutting down the virus is intriguing, especially with Omicron. It being less dangerous and all. Something doesn’t add up.
https://twitter.com/songpinganq/status/ ... 7681995779


Is it just about winter olympics or is another new dangerous version coming?
arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Amber G. wrote:
arshyam wrote:This is perhaps the simplest explanation as to why these charts aren't available like before:

When Is The Peak? When Is The End? What IIT-Kanpur's Manindra Agrawal Says About Third Wave In India by Bhaswati Guha Majumder, Swarajya
The above article by Mr. Majumder is very sloppy - sometimes silly and inaccurate in even elementary points. For example:
The SUTRA model

Agrawal explained that the basic model was developed almost a century ago. It's known as the SUTRA model, and it has been quite successful in forecasting the spread of multiple pandemics. To accommodate for specific local ground realities, the team has made some changes to the model.

“We have allowed the parameters to learn their values from input data itself.

(SUTRA was not developed "a century ago" (it may seem similar to older models but it is quited different from other models developed in last 100 years .) and the sentence like "allowed parameters to learn their values" is quite silly.. (and I can definitely say those can not be direct "quotes" from a mathematician like Prof Agrawal - so why misquote?).

How difficult it is for a magazine/newspaper to find a reporter/editor to do sensible reporting. /sigh/

BTW - SUTRA stands for "Susceptible Undetected Tested_positive Rrecovered Approach... (I like the acronym as it means formula in Sanskrit :) )
Thank you for the detailed clarifications - now even the quote of the Professor is in question. Let's hope we get to see data soon.
Manish_P
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

Perhaps the medication/treatment part is open to updates, based on continual findings... but testing?

Open letter by 35 doctors from across country states ‘India overdoing testing, medication’
The ongoing third Covid wave in India, like the two previous ones, is characterised by unwarranted testing, medication and hospitalisations, said a group of 35 distinguished doctors from across the country and abroad.

In an open letter, they have appealed to the central and state health authorities to stop these “unwarranted” practices and promote evidence-based medicine.

One of the signatories, Dr Sanjay Nagral from Jaslok Hospital, told TOI: “There was a need to say that we are overdoing it—be it with respect to Covid treatment, testing or hospitalisation. This letter is an effort by some doctors to state we don’t agree with some of the practices."

The letter, signed by a few Indian-origin doctors from Harvard and Johns Hopkins universities in the US, said the “mistakes of the 2021 response” were being repeated in 2022.

The group identified three main issues: Unwarranted medication, unwarranted tests and unwarranted hospitalisation. While most Covid-19 cases now have mild symptoms and will require little to no medication, the group said, “Most prescriptions we have reviewed in the past two weeks include several Covid ‘kits’ and cocktails." The prescribing of vitamins and medicines such as azithromycin, doxycycline, hydroxychloroquine, favipiravir and ivermectin is “irrational practice”, said infectious diseases specialist Dr Madhukar Pai from McGill University, Canada. Such “wanton use of drugs” led to the outbreak of mucormycosis during the second Delta wave.

While most Covid-19 patients would only need rapid antigen or PCR test and home monitoring of their oxygen level, many are still being prescribed CT scans and expensive blood tests such as d-dimer and IL6. The letter said such tests, along with unnecessary hospitalisations, put undue financial burden on families.

Another signatory, Dr Satchit Balsari from Harvard Medical School, noted: “Patients have struggled with misinformation around the world. While vaccine hesitancy has been one of the greatest challenges in America where vaccines are so widely available, the wanton use of unwarranted drugs pushed by medical professionals and state representatives in India has been disappointing. One would have hoped that the crushing toll of the Delta wave would have been cause for pause."
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

I think the primary objection wrt testing is rampant ordering of expensive additional tests which may or may not be required. The doctor has to take the ultimate call but doctors have expressed frustration that many patients request/expect these additional tests (in general not specific to Covid) and if doctor does not prescribe, they would not hesitate to give him/her a bad reputation (WoM) and sometimes escalate it to hospital management (which ultimately also wants more expenses done at their premises).
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Somehow Vaccinations went down this week
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

vijayk wrote:Somehow Vaccinations went down this week
Festival season across country.

We'll probably still top 50 million doses this week, which would easily be among the 10 best ever weeks. 109 million doses for the month of Jan up to 14th.
Manish_P
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

Zynda wrote:I think the primary objection wrt testing is rampant ordering of expensive additional tests which may or may not be required.....
Is there data on how much was the percentage of total cases or the percentage increase in the D Dimer and CT scan tests?

Anecdotal observation of self, relatives, friends, colleagues indicates that in the first wave almost all of us were asked by the doctors for additional tests (CT scan and D Dimer)... however lesser number of those who got it in the second wave were asked for these additional tests.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Sharing some items (of my interest) from various sources - I will be posting in separate messages:

Hospital and healthcare situation in India looks much more encouraging than previous wave - both from data and perspective from experts in few cities.
For example Chennai crossed 2nd wave peak & recorded 8218 yesterday, while hospitals beds/ ICU etc are not that overwhelmed.
12 May 21:
O2 Bed - 6873 (98%), ICU - 1935 (99%) (New Cases - 7564, Active - 40613)

13-Jan 22:
O2 Bed - 1328 (16%), ICU - 256 (13%) (New Case - 8218, Active - 46515)
Image
(Source: Vijayanand - Covid Data Analytics)
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Amber G. wrote:Sharing some items (of my interest) from various sources - I will be posting in separate messages:

Hospital and healthcare situation in India looks much more encouraging than previous wave - both from data and perspective from experts in few cities.
For example Chennai crossed 2nd wave peak & recorded 8218 yesterday, while hospitals beds/ ICU etc are not that overwhelmed.
12 May 21:
O2 Bed - 6873 (98%), ICU - 1935 (99%) (New Cases - 7564, Active - 40613)

13-Jan 22:
O2 Bed - 1328 (16%), ICU - 256 (13%) (New Case - 8218, Active - 46515)
Image
(Source: Vijayanand - Covid Data Analytics)
Great news ... Hope we reach the peak soon and cases start going down
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Some excellent analysis has come from SA data from Mathematician Dr. Ridhwaan Suliman (have used those learnings to project situation in India as in some ways the situation in India and SA are similar - (also differs in many ways).

Seems like Omicron just does not descend to zero ..length of the is likely to vary between places and populations.. something which we should be ready for. While COVID19 case numbers, test positivity rates, and hospitalizations continue their decline across South Africa during this wave driven by Omicron, reported deaths still ticking upwards. A longer lag and/or slower reporting. Deaths currently at 30% of Delta)

Image
(For India - we have to monitor/watch our own data trajectory is likely to be different than UK/USA or even different parts of India
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile: This might be very useful in terms of what symptoms to be noticed - Symptom data from ~175,000 Omicron and ~88,000 Delta cases. (From UK HSA: Link: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... y-2022.pdf

(Less loss of smell and taste with Omicron, but more sore throat than with Delta -- Heard more preserved senses from a few doctors saying this about Omicron infections -They seem to be correct)
Image
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

The wastewater data (In USA) ---Continues on the way down..
Image
Nationwide similar trend ..
Image

(Eg Florida)
Image
(Boston data - optimistic -- While we're not there yet .. looks like these are consistent with SUTRA model driven conclusions..
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

USA and India - we are still peaking but it is nice to see more countries making U-turns ..
(Data per million - in some of the worst hit countries)..
(Hopefully around now many places in US will be peaking -- India - another week or two depending on location)

.Image

(Not to undermine situation here - U.S. coronavirus death toll hits 850,000, and 155,000 Americans hospitalized --highest since pandemic began)

PLEASE STAY SAFE!
< USA and India stats >
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

My family and many people I know (including many here in BRF) live in the Bay Area - Let me share some recent graphs which I have shared with people in SF Area. Looks like SUTRA model with SF data got a very good prediction - This is also being confirmed by waste-water data.

This slide below (Credit : UCSF's Rutherford and Stanford's Maldonado - using their tools and data) shows SARS-coV2 levels from sites around Bay Area. (Line 'Del 143-145" represents Omicron).

San Fransisco is stable, everybody else has peaked and is trending trending downwards (consistent with graphs with SUTRA) ... Clinical cases are still going up but this is encouraging.
Image

-- For the record here is Official US Data:
New cases at record-high (but peak is near - next few days per SUTRA - For Bay Area - Peak has been reached)

- New cases: 926,693
- Average: 815,826 (+3,618)
- States reporting: 48/50
- In hospital: 155,527 (+1,396)
- In ICU: 25,878 (+257)
- New deaths: 2,786
ramana
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramana »

Manish_P wrote:Perhaps the medication/treatment part is open to updates, based on continual findings... but testing?

Open letter by 35 doctors from across country states ‘India overdoing testing, medication’
The ongoing third Covid wave in India, like the two previous ones, is characterised by unwarranted testing, medication and hospitalisations, said a group of 35 distinguished doctors from across the country and abroad.

In an open letter, they have appealed to the central and state health authorities to stop these “unwarranted” practices and promote evidence-based medicine.

One of the signatories, Dr Sanjay Nagral from Jaslok Hospital, told TOI: “There was a need to say that we are overdoing it—be it with respect to Covid treatment, testing or hospitalisation. This letter is an effort by some doctors to state we don’t agree with some of the practices."

The letter, signed by a few Indian-origin doctors from Harvard and Johns Hopkins universities in the US, said the “mistakes of the 2021 response” were being repeated in 2022.

The group identified three main issues: Unwarranted medication, unwarranted tests and unwarranted hospitalisation. While most Covid-19 cases now have mild symptoms and will require little to no medication, the group said, “Most prescriptions we have reviewed in the past two weeks include several Covid ‘kits’ and cocktails." The prescribing of vitamins and medicines such as azithromycin, doxycycline, hydroxychloroquine, favipiravir and ivermectin is “irrational practice”, said infectious diseases specialist Dr Madhukar Pai from McGill University, Canada. Such “wanton use of drugs” led to the outbreak of mucormycosis during the second Delta wave.

While most Covid-19 patients would only need rapid antigen or PCR test and home monitoring of their oxygen level, many are still being prescribed CT scans and expensive blood tests such as d-dimer and IL6. The letter said such tests, along with unnecessary hospitalisations, put undue financial burden on families.

Another signatory, Dr Satchit Balsari from Harvard Medical School, noted: “Patients have struggled with misinformation around the world. While vaccine hesitancy has been one of the greatest challenges in America where vaccines are so widely available, the wanton use of unwarranted drugs pushed by medical professionals and state representatives in India has been disappointing. One would have hoped that the crushing toll of the Delta wave would have been cause for pause."
The US based doctors can introspect on their own practice in US before giving advice to India:

US cases:
- New cases: 926,693
- Average: 815,826 (+3,618)
- States reporting: 48/50
- In hospital: 155,527 (+1,396)
- In ICU: 25,878 (+257)
- New deaths: 2,786
sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjaykumar »

Do not dismiss their studied recommendations.

Medical practice in India and the US is of a certain “ user pay “ model. It is not neccesarily in the patients’ interest to have CT scans in the vast majority of cases. Or antibiotica.

However the US numbers are disturbing. India does seem to be doing better although it is still early in the Omicron wave. That does not necessarily validate the Indian management model.

I understand the “look at yourself” comments. But now is not the time to get down to the level of the person who essentially stated that Indians should be gratefull if Americans get vaccinated first and survive instead of Indians. I know there are some in many countries who believe the pandemic in the US is a good thing- for consumption and global warming, to help develop a new perspective, one that is more empathetic etc. Let’s get through this global catastrophe first. I believe there will come a day reckoning. China needs to worry.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

We hit the 365 day mark on vaccinations yesterday. To commemorate:
One Year Of Covid-19 Vaccinations In India: 156 Crore Reasons For Satisfaction
sanjayc
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjayc »

sanjaykumar wrote:Do not dismiss their studied recommendations.
Indians who migrate to US -- doctors, university professors, economists -- suddenly become experts on how Indian Govt. should run India. They also make sure that their advice is released to the media too. Where does so much wisdom come from? Is it in the water of US -- the moment they start drinking it, they become wiser than Modi?
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Image

Mumbai numbers falling fast
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Sharing one of the best and clearest short article I have seen about airborne transmission of covid ... why history led to it's denial, and what to do about it - Hope those who have genuine interest (with technical background) will find is very useful.

I am very glad that GoI and its administration has advocated importance of good Masks and ventilations etc. I am rather disappointed with CDC - there mixed messages (they are still not clearly advocating N95 type masks - which almost all other advance countries are advocating)

With COVID-19, Air Is Both the Problem and the Solution
SARS-CoV-2 can linger in the air. Dealing with it can be relatively easy, but first, we have to admit we have a problem:
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Again confirming a good vaccine strategy is more helpful than anti-vaxers ..
Japan: Where nearly 80% people are vaccinated and they have a good boosters policy..
Holding pretty well.. with Omicron ..

Japan:
Image
IndraD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamane ... le/2787712 study published in JAMA suggests 2 doses of COVAXIN prevented reinfection in HCW in India even against high viral load
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Some more comments -
Amber G. wrote:For India - Drifting is still there in the data - (Not unexpected - there is a lot of amount of testing and reporting of the cases uncertainty - to get smooth data) but the timing of the peak (End of January ) is still valid. The height of the peak may be little uncertain.
(Hopefully when the phase stabilizes they will post it on IIT/H site I can share some more detail with more confidence)..

(The graph is below - a few more days later may be more reliable graph))

Image
Latest SUTRA graph: (Model Computed from parameters just a few days ago)

Image

(Trajectory indicating peak around 23th Jan with nearly 720 K cases per day. Actual trajectory is deviating significantly in a good way , and actual peak is going to be around 4.1 K) ..(True we have changed the testing strategy a little - SUTRA reports the 'detected' cases - In few more days phase will be stabilized and the forecast for individual districts will be much more reliable -- but I don't think the peak is going to going that high - it will be around 4.1K (We will see how accurate this prediction turns out to be in a few weeks).

Hospitalization data continue to be fairly good and encouraging..Mumbai (and Delhi) the down ward journey is consistent with data -- expectation for hospitalization for other places like UP etc are quite encouraging)

PLEASE CONTINUE TO WEAR MASKS , stay safe.

(I am also quite busy with US state wise data - especially places of my interest and places which may listen to me. Many states already reached peak and cases are going down past - as expected - some states are still 2-4 weeks away - kind of really sad as the anti-vax forces are still much more here in USA - especially in some states).
arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Thanks for these updates, Amber G. ma'am. I can see the trend clearly starting to go down in Mumbai and Delhi, and even Chennai seems to have peaked. Bangalore is still in the growth phase, but going by these other examples, hopefully it starts to trend down soon. I am using https://covid19tracker.in/ for these updates.

A question about the shorter peak - could the delayed second dose in India, especially for those who had taken Covishield and had a long waiting period till the second dose (88 days), and a large part of the population having taken the first dose only a month or two back have influenced this outcome? Unlike the mRNA ('Pfizer') markets of the west where the second dose also was done a long ago and the booster-related marketing took centrestage, could our slower pace of vaccination (longer interval + sheer volume) actually have turned out to be a blessing in disguise? Did the model factor this in? In your earlier posts, you had mentioned an assumed loss of immunity that was on the higher side, but perhaps the actual loss was at a much lower level?

Anecdotally, most of the positive cases I've heard about had taken their two shots early on - as soon as the general vaccinations opened up. Of course, this is anecdotal data, so I am not concluding anything.
arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

One thing I am happy about is that GoI/ICMR did not stupidly relax the masking requirement - at least in the big cities, mask compliance has been decent, and would have been very poor had GoI taken a cue from the US' CDC and relaxed the criteria last year.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

Manish_P wrote:Perhaps the medication/treatment part is open to updates, based on continual findings... but testing?

Open letter by 35 doctors from across country states ‘India overdoing testing, medication’
The ongoing third Covid wave in India, like the two previous ones, is characterised by unwarranted testing, medication and hospitalisations, said a group of 35 distinguished doctors from across the country and abroad.

In an open letter, they have appealed to the central and state health authorities to stop these “unwarranted” practices and promote evidence-based medicine.

One of the signatories, Dr Sanjay Nagral from Jaslok Hospital, told TOI: “There was a need to say that we are overdoing it—be it with respect to Covid treatment, testing or hospitalisation. This letter is an effort by some doctors to state we don’t agree with some of the practices."

The letter, signed by a few Indian-origin doctors from Harvard and Johns Hopkins universities in the US, said the “mistakes of the 2021 response” were being repeated in 2022.

The group identified three main issues: Unwarranted medication, unwarranted tests and unwarranted hospitalisation. While most Covid-19 cases now have mild symptoms and will require little to no medication, the group said, “Most prescriptions we have reviewed in the past two weeks include several Covid ‘kits’ and cocktails." The prescribing of vitamins and medicines such as azithromycin, doxycycline, hydroxychloroquine, favipiravir and ivermectin is “irrational practice”, said infectious diseases specialist Dr Madhukar Pai from McGill University, Canada. Such “wanton use of drugs” led to the outbreak of mucormycosis during the second Delta wave.

While most Covid-19 patients would only need rapid antigen or PCR test and home monitoring of their oxygen level, many are still being prescribed CT scans and expensive blood tests such as d-dimer and IL6. The letter said such tests, along with unnecessary hospitalisations, put undue financial burden on families.

Another signatory, Dr Satchit Balsari from Harvard Medical School, noted: “Patients have struggled with misinformation around the world. While vaccine hesitancy has been one of the greatest challenges in America where vaccines are so widely available, the wanton use of unwarranted drugs pushed by medical professionals and state representatives in India has been disappointing. One would have hoped that the crushing toll of the Delta wave would have been cause for pause."

These chaps can't control Covid in their own countries. Want to limit the Indian Dr's approach to use widely available OTS drugs to prevent hospitalisation for the frail, elderly and immune compromised.

Irrational practice, sure. First dont let a majority of the drugs like Ivm be explored fully for political reasons, by associating with domestic politics. Then attempt to shut down other countries which are willing to use them. Just check out the number of attacks, often politically led, being conducted on the Dr's willing to prescribe these drugs in the US.

https://covid19criticalcare.com/

There are multiple Dr's in India who've used these combinations and seen benefit. But of course, its all anecdotal not RCT etc and all that needs to be done while our medical infra gets overwhelmed. The Indian Dr's shouldn't have agency. Their clinical experience, abity to interpret medical literature counts for nought. They need these saviors to tell them what is what.

And they want us to stop blood tests also. Because of course Indian Dr's in India know nothing and haven't seen any value of these tests in their own clinical practice.

These Dr's in the US likely see as many patients in a year as much as the average Dr in India sees in a month.

These Indian origin Dr's need to take a chill pill and try to manage their own nations problems.

If they truly care so much let them first write a letter to the USG asking for true independent, transparent audit of the CDC and Faucis involvement in gain of function research along with that Brit origin dude. Don't count on it happening.
arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Suraj wrote:We hit the 365 day mark on vaccinations yesterday. To commemorate:
One Year Of Covid-19 Vaccinations In India: 156 Crore Reasons For Satisfaction
As someone commented in Swarajya, superlative stuff, Suraj-san. A very thorough data-backed retrospective. Even on BRF we may not have appreciated the sheer scale of the challenge that GoI took on and solved. No way regular MSM will publish anything on these lines. I am sharing this within my network.
Karan M
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

arshyam wrote:One thing I am happy about is that GoI/ICMR did not stupidly relax the masking requirement - at least in the big cities, mask compliance has been decent, and would have been very poor had GoI taken a cue from the US' CDC and relaxed the criteria last year.
Bingo. Social media was full of how Americans have stopped masking, why can't India follow the science blah blah. Now its Indians are over prescribing medicines, why can't India follow the science. Most Covid is mild blah blah. Meanwhile Maha data shows 40% of monthly infections is still Delta variant based. Even with vaccination, you want every bit of help. Long Covid isn't a joke.
Manish_P
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

Karan M wrote:....Meanwhile Maha data shows 40% of monthly infections is still Delta variant based. ...
Absolutely spot on... such factual data doesn't come in MSM articles, forget about whatsapp/Social media. This is why despite Omicron supposedly being less damaging as compared to the earlier variants, India still has a fight on it's hand.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Thakur_B »

A noob question. Is there a temporary fall in immunity right after vaccination shot? I have heard this anecdote several times from many people. Is there any truth to it?
disha
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

There is a lot of nonsense going on in West which translates to looking down and telling the Indians about how bad that they are and how bad things are going to get for them and how Indians will drop like flies and since those things do not come true there is more frustration that shows up as how bad things are in India in media outlets like WaPo or other racist rags. And the cycle repeats.

And some members here do extend that nonsense, advertently or inadvertently spreading unnecessary fear (classic FUD) and becoming shills of the west.

Here are their cases in point (and answers to them) :

1. India does not have 70% coverage of vaccination required for herd immunity.

Ans: Is India a homogenized equidistant equal distribution of population that the number 70% is tossed out? When people toss out that one generic number as gospel truth, they are not using their brains. No country (real country, not city-states) has equal population distribution. As long as dense population clusters get the required percentage (note the required percentage) of vaccinations, then it is okay.

2. Indian vaccines are not effective for Omicron.
For Covaxin, - study of Omicron Live virus neutralization has been done, and AFAIK published for the first time in India.
The study shows substantially reduced activity of vaccinated and convalescent plasma against Omicron. The preprint is here:

Here is preprint:
Sub-optimal Neutralisation of Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant by Antibodies induced by Vaccine alone or SARS-CoV-2 Infection plus Vaccine (Hybrid Immunity) post 6-months [
Ans: Please take some time to discern the above points:

a. Covaxin was studied as a vaccine and *after* six months its efficacy against omicron. What does this mean? It means in reality, only population in the June, July 2021 Cohort will need a booster now in Jan/Feb. And within that, only populations with co-morbidity have to worry. However, if you had a Covaxin in say June/July PLUS you had coronavirus before/after, then your virus-fighting capacity is not significantly impacted (per study parameters) (n=20, 18 out of 20 or say 90% had anti-nucleocapsid antibodies)

2a.i. Just to note:
Antibodies against the spike protein of SARS-CoV-1, the target of neutralizing antibody and vaccine development, emerge at a later time than those against the nucleocapsid protein.
. That is the study was targeting the titer of first-line antibodies that help detect wuhan virus. But does not take into account that the immune system might have developed B-cell/T-cell-mediated immunity before grandly declaring "loss of immunity"

b. Check the funding sources. Funding is from BMGF (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). Just click on the link and check out the funding.

And of course such a lose statement was thrown in between the graphs here:
"Why" of mRNA is better (or not) than "traditional" will probably take years of study to get definite answer. What we do know is that some part - eg neutralization of antibodies can be tested rather fast (with in weeks) of emergence of new variant.
In my post I think I mentioned one study (but there are various other studies) which have confirmed that Moderna and Pfizer (Moderna measurably better than Pfizer but both around the same range) were significantly better (in *these studies*) than Adenovirus Vaccine (J&J doing worse than Covidshiled but both behind mRNA). In USA/Canada *most* boosters are now mRNA. (There are many factors involved - I am commenting here some summary - for details please see the original papers).
Pfizer CEO himself admitted that the pfizer vaccines are pretty much useless against Omicron. Including the boosters. They need a new vaccine that encodes a different set of spike proteins. Same will be the case with moderna. And here couple of days back, we had blatant FUD on Covaxin. Just see the quote above.

Links:

For 2a.i Not my daughter-in-law's son-in-law's 3rd cousin from Timbuktu working at a top post under Fauci

3. Indians are not masking up enough.

Here are the links from the racist nytimes and their Indian gadflys https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/worl ... 2021-06-24

And in shrill alarming tones:
as much as possible when you are with your parents (even indoors) - coupled with washing hands etc is *very* important..
.

Ans: I need to tell my story. Visited south of border with family. Including 75 year old grandmother. Last possible trip for her outside of country. Interacted with lot of people. Sometimes with mask, sometimes without masks. All times with cloth masks. Outdoors, no need for masks. Anyway, it was sparsely populated areas.

Zero covid infection. Traveled via two flights. Lay over in one of US southern state. Flights were packed. Multiple covid tests. All negative.

Point is, live your life with appropriate precautions without going crazy. Do you require N95 masks all the time and even indoors? No. They are costly & pollute. At the same time if you can use N95 in a densely packed train/bus, please do so! So use your judgment, the more human density, the more filtration your mask requires. The guidelines of GOI is what the world should follow. Not some shrill nonsense from western racist propagandus.

---

Data after data is telling that Omicron is *not* virulent. It is highly transmissible. People who get it does not mean it is mild for them. That is, its symptoms are severe but epidemiologically it is mild.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/d ... 10514.html
Hospitalisation has remained relatively low in Delhi, and Health Minister Satyendar Jain said Wednesday that the plateauing of hospital admissions indicates that the ongoing wave has peaked and cases may go down soon.
Note: Try to go past the headline and into the article.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronav ... s/3496015/
People hospitalized with the omicron variant of COVID-19 spend three days less in the hospital than the average delta variant patient, with lower rates of mechanical ventilation and death, a new study has found.

..

The study comprised nearly 70,000 patients in the Kaiser Permanente healthcare system in southern California from Nov. 30 to Jan. 1. Omicron cases outnumbered delta cases more than 3-1, but total omicron hospitalizations were only about a dozen higher.

Among those hospitalized with omicron, the median stay was 3.4 days shorter than for delta patients, reflecting about a 70% reduction in overall hospitalized time.

The authors found much lower rates of ICU admission and death for those who started with an outpatient positive test for omicron, as opposed to delta. They also noted that none of the omicron patients in the study period needed a ventilator, but 11 of the delta patients did.
All baboocrazy mandates like lockdowns/partial lockdowns/school closures etc needs to be thrown out of the door. Lockdown impacts the poor the most and their livelihoods. At this point, livelihoods matter.

To start with, one has to accept that this virus is going to stay, is endemic and will produce mutants, and no need to watch just the daily case numbers and only the daily case numbers & run to the exits as if the sky is falling.

What needs to be watched from the data is the hospitalization rate. The ICU rate. The mortality rate.

PS: Will tell the story of Pedro in next post.
Last edited by disha on 17 Jan 2022 13:01, edited 3 times in total.
disha
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Thakur_B wrote:A noob question. Is there a temporary fall in immunity right after vaccination shot? I have heard this anecdote several times from many people. Is there any truth to it?
That is just another fear-mongering fable. I have two theories that would have led to such fables (based on what I always hear):

1. After vaccination, the immunity to that vaccine specific RNA viruses decreases (depends on what is taken into account and type of vaccine). Which then with appropriate mirch-masala transmogrifies into a "temporary fall in immunity right after vaccination". I have not found such studies so far.

2. After vaccination, people do feel tired and sick and the fear-mongering state that in such a "weakened" state other vectors may come in.

Added later: https://www.health.ny.gov/prevention/im ... ptions.htm
IndraD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

UK to become first country to repeal any isolation after covid , carry on if you are covid + but feeling fine https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/0 ... -learning/
Deans
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

[/quote]

These chaps can't control Covid in their own countries. Want to limit the Indian Dr's approach to use widely available OTS drugs to prevent hospitalisation for the frail, elderly and immune compromised.

And they want us to stop blood tests also. Because of course Indian Dr's in India know nothing and haven't seen any value of these tests in their own clinical practice.

These Dr's in the US likely see as many patients in a year as much as the average Dr in India sees in a month.

These Indian origin Dr's need to take a chill pill and try to manage their own nations problems.
If they truly care so much let them first write a letter to the USG asking for true independent, transparent audit of the CDC and Faucis involvement in gain of function research along with that Brit origin dude. Don't count on it happening.[/quote]


To counter the specific allegations I would add:
1. We had fewer people in hospital (as a % of those infected) than the US in wave 2. Currently both India and US are reporting 3-4% hospital case,s so we are not over hospitalising.
2. Most treatment (in govt hospitals) is free, or at discounted rates. These cases are not covered by insurance. So there is no incentive (in the majority of cases, for doctors to over medicate, or over test. In many cases, the hospital may not have the means to conduct the tests and patients may not have the means to access costly medicine. It would be interesting to compare average treatment costs in the India vs. India before people pass judgement.
3. Both India and US have the same fatality rate of 1.3% So our medical system can't be all that bad.
Primus
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

sanjayc wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:Do not dismiss their studied recommendations.
Indians who migrate to US -- doctors, university professors, economists -- suddenly become experts on how Indian Govt. should run India. They also make sure that their advice is released to the media too. Where does so much wisdom come from? Is it in the water of US -- the moment they start drinking it, they become wiser than Modi?
Sadly this is very true. I confess I too was one of these, within a few weeks of going to UK in 1985 thought I was the master of all knowledge having 'learned from the Masters'. Took me quite a while to realize there were so many people like me in India who were just as good if not better, all they needed was better resources. Now India has these in abundance and even in a small town like Ayodhya, they have state-of-the-art endoscopy and EUS available (personal knowledge). Bigger towns like Nagpur have treatment options in my field that we do not in New York, at least not outside of research protocols.

What is unique about the Indian system is that people are not afraid to try something different when the usual methods are not working. In the US, everything is driven by protocols and if there is no protocol you cannot do anything. Every person admitted for a given symptom has to be worked through the mill even if you know very well there is nothing wrong with the person. A man walked into the ER drunk wanting a bed and food for the night. They told him to get lost, he then said I am having chest pain - lo and behold he got a bed and free food for two days because they could not now turn him away (personal experience) .

These guys only get traction because they are allowed to. Best ignore and carry on.
Manish_P
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Manish_P »

:lol: about the Drunk..

One other reason I shared that post was the astounding irony of those eminent Doctors towards extensive testing.. ask any significant number of patients (or their relatives) admitted in their hospitals and they will tell you about the innumerable tests these very premier hospitals insist on conducting prior or/and immediately on admission... and if the patient has mediclaim then it is Diwali, Christmas and New year combined!
srin
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by srin »

SHQ tested positive last weekend. Pretty mild, relatively speaking - 101F fever, and body ache for a couple of days and then recovered. BBMP called 24 hours later and advised Ivermectin and something else, but she was already much better, so we didn't bother with any of that.
Both of us fully vaccinated 6 months ago with Covaxin.
That tallies with what I'm hearing *annecdotally* from friends too - for those who are fully vacc'ed, it is like a flu. And every case I know is a breakthrough case (Covaxin or Covishield doesn't seem to matter).
Anujan
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Anujan »

disha wrote:
Thakur_B wrote:A noob question. Is there a temporary fall in immunity right after vaccination shot? I have heard this anecdote several times from many people. Is there any truth to it?
That is just another fear-mongering fable. I have two theories that would have led to such fables (based on what I always hear):

1. After vaccination, the immunity to that vaccine specific RNA viruses decreases (depends on what is taken into account and type of vaccine). Which then with appropriate mirch-masala transmogrifies into a "temporary fall in immunity right after vaccination". I have not found such studies so far.

2. After vaccination, people do feel tired and sick and the fear-mongering state that in such a "weakened" state other vectors may come in.

Added later: https://www.health.ny.gov/prevention/im ... ptions.htm
There is a third theory: If my family and friends are anything to go by, the realization that they need vaccines dawns upon them only when there is a severe wave raging, even though they were eligible beforehand. Which means that a few of them get covid during the wave. Then ask "I got vaccinated yesterday, how did I get covid today?" (vaccines take about a week to kick in, they were probably exposed before they took a vaccine, there is a wave going on etc etc).

Think about it for a second, there are a few possibilities

1. People were not vaccinated, they got covid. Ofcouse we expect that, its nothing out of the ordinary.
2. People were not vaccinaed, they did not get covid. Pat yourself in the back for being so diligent about masking.
3. People were vaccinated, they got covid 2 weeks after they were vaccinated. Possibility of this is super low as you know, given the vaccine efficacy we are talking about.
4. People were vaccinated, they did not get covid. Ofcourse. Vaccine + masking + sensible precautions work

If any of these happens, nobody is surprised. (3) is unlikely to happen.

The only other possibility is, someone got exposed 1-2 days before vaccine, then they got the vaccine, and then they got covid and therefore

VACCINATION CAUSES A DIP IN IMMUNITY 1-2 DAYS AFTER YOU GET THE VACCINE!!!!
vera_k
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Anecdotal evidence from my contacts using at-home Covid testing is that this new variant looks to be able to cause breakthrough infections in 2x vaccinated + 1x boosted individuals without too much trouble. Mostly asymptomatic or mild symptoms like an allergic episode result, but still quite concerning, particularly the part where the breakthrough infection can be asymptomatic allowing the person to unknowingly spread it further.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Looks like we crossed. 8M doses today
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