Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
MoHFW data indicates 294.6 million doses done. A performance equal to Tuesday on Wednesday will result in the 300m mark being breached. Past 1.6 million on CoWin as of 1245pm.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
COWIN dashboard Today: 59,72,971
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
All that vaccine "hoarded" for a year is now coming out (pun intended)vijayk wrote:COWIN dashboard Today: 59,72,971
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
BTW, MP is again on top today with more than 10.5 lakh doses.
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MP crossed a million today again. Need more million states!
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UP needs to get its act together. Anything less than 15 lakhs is insufficient for a population of 22 crores. It has one of the lowest vaccination rates so far.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
YesUttam wrote:UP needs to get its act together. Anything less than 15 lakhs is insufficient for a population of 22 crores. It has one of the lowest vaccination rates so far.
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Does anybody know why Kerala is not able to reduce its test positivity rate (TPR) when every other state has been able to increase testing to reduce TPR? This is probably the main reason why Kerala's number of infections is plateauing. They need to increase their testing capacity immediately.
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The spread of delta plus should be controlled otherwise a second wave repeat or worse than that may take place again.. already 40 cases of delta plus cases in 4 states have been reported .
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Here I was preparing feast to celebrate 300m during weekend and when the rice and dal are yet to be washed much less cooked, the moment has already arrived why can’t they hoard vaccines like Chidambaram said ?Uttam wrote:All that vaccine "hoarded" for a year is now coming out (pun intended)vijayk wrote:COWIN dashboard Today: 59,72,971
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
I think another 300 million doses can be administered by Independence Day on 15 August 2021.
There will be much celebrate this festival season when India hits the 500 million fully vaccinated.
There will be much celebrate this festival season when India hits the 500 million fully vaccinated.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Wonder why mask compliance is slipping. If the single layer cloth mask is unable to stop the transmission of the Delta variant, guidance needs to be updated to start using two masks.
Mask compliance still remains low in India
Mask compliance still remains low in India
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
What are helmet and seat belt compliance numbers in India?vera_k wrote:Wonder why mask compliance is slipping. If the single layer cloth mask is unable to stop the transmission of the Delta variant, guidance needs to be updated to start using two masks.
Mask compliance still remains low in India
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
PIB 7pm report confirms 300m being reached: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1729861
Day 159: 30,09,69,538
Day 158: 29,40,42,822
Day on day: 69,26,716
Pretty astonishing sequence: 3.5M Sunday, 9M Monday, 5.4m Tuesday, 6.9m Wednesday. Each of those days is an all time best performing day of week, as reported on this thread:
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1407573826951520260
Day 159: 30,09,69,538
Day 158: 29,40,42,822
Day on day: 69,26,716
Pretty astonishing sequence: 3.5M Sunday, 9M Monday, 5.4m Tuesday, 6.9m Wednesday. Each of those days is an all time best performing day of week, as reported on this thread:
https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1407573826951520260
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
I previously posted, Prof VermA & Ranjan of IITK's prediction and graphs a few days ago.. Just wanted to mention that these are *NOT* the one produced by SUTRA model. Many newspapers and SM outlets are distributing these graphs as from "IITK" and confusing it with what we called here "super model".
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SUTRA model, graphs (https://sutra-india.in/) goes up to end of August where one can be reasonably sure (within 10% or so). This shows the infection rate of about 1000/day by the end of August.
Since India may start to "open up"..more people coming out, more weddings etc..and it seems from data that in India that immunity is lasting less than we initially estimated ( Data suggests about 10-15% people's lost of immunity after 3-4 months) the "reach" (parameter rho) is at present perhaps slightly increasing ... but OTOH.. speeded up vaccinations is going to lower it..data will show how much - let us hope the vaccination drive is really speeds up and carelessness among aam janta does not get too bad.
One important aspect is for common public, the importance of "third wave" is overblown. Sure for administration it is important and helps in planning for resources etc, but general public and *really* ignorant politicians and silly people give it unnecessary importance. From scientific point of view - at personal level - what matters is how *you* wear mask, get fully vaccinated etc..This is MUCH MORE important than looking at the graphs of the wave. (probability of you getting sick depends more on factors like your behaviour rather than which point of "peak" the country is - Bottom line: Until you are fully vaccinated you have to avoid crowds etc..
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SUTRA model, graphs (https://sutra-india.in/) goes up to end of August where one can be reasonably sure (within 10% or so). This shows the infection rate of about 1000/day by the end of August.
Since India may start to "open up"..more people coming out, more weddings etc..and it seems from data that in India that immunity is lasting less than we initially estimated ( Data suggests about 10-15% people's lost of immunity after 3-4 months) the "reach" (parameter rho) is at present perhaps slightly increasing ... but OTOH.. speeded up vaccinations is going to lower it..data will show how much - let us hope the vaccination drive is really speeds up and carelessness among aam janta does not get too bad.
One important aspect is for common public, the importance of "third wave" is overblown. Sure for administration it is important and helps in planning for resources etc, but general public and *really* ignorant politicians and silly people give it unnecessary importance. From scientific point of view - at personal level - what matters is how *you* wear mask, get fully vaccinated etc..This is MUCH MORE important than looking at the graphs of the wave. (probability of you getting sick depends more on factors like your behaviour rather than which point of "peak" the country is - Bottom line: Until you are fully vaccinated you have to avoid crowds etc..
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
From Nature:
World braces for impact of Delta variant
Data from the rapid rise of the Delta coronavirus variant in the United Kingdom have revealed the impact of the highly transmissible strain. Delta, also known as B.1.617.2, belongs to a viral lineage first identified in India.
Delta seems to be around 60% more transmissible than the already highly infectious Alpha variant (also called B.1.1.7), identified in the United Kingdom in late 2020.
Preliminary evidence suggests that people infected with Delta are about twice as likely as those infected with Alpha to end up in hospital.
Delta is moderately resistant to vaccines, particularly in people who have received just a single dose.
At greatest risk are people who have no access to COVID-19 vaccines at all — particularly those in Africa, where most nations have vaccinated less than 5% of their populations.
Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01696-3
World braces for impact of Delta variant
Data from the rapid rise of the Delta coronavirus variant in the United Kingdom have revealed the impact of the highly transmissible strain. Delta, also known as B.1.617.2, belongs to a viral lineage first identified in India.
Delta seems to be around 60% more transmissible than the already highly infectious Alpha variant (also called B.1.1.7), identified in the United Kingdom in late 2020.
Preliminary evidence suggests that people infected with Delta are about twice as likely as those infected with Alpha to end up in hospital.
Delta is moderately resistant to vaccines, particularly in people who have received just a single dose.
At greatest risk are people who have no access to COVID-19 vaccines at all — particularly those in Africa, where most nations have vaccinated less than 5% of their populations.
Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01696-3
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^^ Good point there related to the Third Wave hype. Speaking to friends and family, the general attitude seems to be lets enjoy 'normal' life before the third wave hits. The possibility that it is this 'normal' life that may cause the third wave seems to be lost on most people.
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Talk to any woke/dumb/progressive/commie idiot from India in US ... He will be calling every one Fascist/Nationalist but questioning why we exported vaccine.Amber G. wrote:From Nature:
World braces for impact of Delta variant
Data from the rapid rise of the Delta coronavirus variant in the United Kingdom have revealed the impact of the highly transmissible strain. Delta, also known as B.1.617.2, belongs to a viral lineage first identified in India.
Delta seems to be around 60% more transmissible than the already highly infectious Alpha variant (also called B.1.1.7), identified in the United Kingdom in late 2020.
Preliminary evidence suggests that people infected with Delta are about twice as likely as those infected with Alpha to end up in hospital.
Delta is moderately resistant to vaccines, particularly in people who have received just a single dose.
At greatest risk are people who have no access to COVID-19 vaccines at all — particularly those in Africa, where most nations have vaccinated less than 5% of their populations.
Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01696-3
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Initial report of excess Covid deaths in some states.
Excess deaths challenge India's official Covid toll
Excess deaths challenge India's official Covid toll
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Vera_k'ji, what is "excess death"?vera_k wrote:Initial report of excess Covid deaths in some states.
Excess deaths challenge India's official Covid toll
What is death due to covid or death due to post covid complications particularly in ppl with comorbidities?
Is the issue over categorization of death (covid vs. non-covid) or on the numbers itself?
Which numbers are claimed to cause "excess death"? Crematorium death number vs. hospital death record? What about neighbouring district issue? Migration vs. non-migration?
In nutshell, the india today article is pure trash. The #mediapimps are plumbing new heights pimping their secularitis infected anti-indian stance.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Assam directs departmental heads to check the vaccination status of frontline govt servants
Assam government directed all departmental heads to ascertain the vaccination status of such frontline government servants before releasing the monthly salary/remuneration from current month on wards.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Excess deaths are calculated simply by comparing amount of deaths in the same period last year versus this year. So deaths caused as a side effect of Covid, say starvation due to loss of income would also be included. It's possible now of course that fake deaths are being registered to claim benefits because only some states show this discrepancy.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Amber G, thanks for your post earlier on data points the transmissibility of Delta variant.From Nature:
World braces for impact of Delta variant
Data from the rapid rise of the Delta coronavirus variant in the United Kingdom have revealed the impact of the highly transmissible strain. Delta, also known as B.1.617.2, belongs to a viral lineage first identified in India.
Delta seems to be around 60% more transmissible than the already highly infectious Alpha variant (also called B.1.1.7), identified in the United Kingdom in late 2020.
Preliminary evidence suggests that people infected with Delta are about twice as likely as those infected with Alpha to end up in hospital.
...
Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01696-3
I don't know. Delta story does not add up...
- Identification of "B.1.617" has not been proven to have ONLY mutated in India (presence in one place does not mean absence in other places)
- Yes, viruses mutate, but the research papers addressing why this strain is highly transmissible keep referring to community clusters and hiding behind some fancy "mathematics model" or "equation", which causes confusion to readers or completely fail to explain, all else equal why one strain is more transmissible than others. What makes B.1.466 or B.1.600 less transmissible than B.1.617 or 615 or 618? Just because Indian population is more and higher density, more cases does not necessarily mean high transmissibility. No one provides any details on transmissibility taking out pop density, relaxation of lockdown etc.
- Why is it that once B.1.617 reaches outside of India, it somehow stops mutating into a more or less deadly variant? magical, no?
- So called experts fail to explain why a virus can only mutate in one country but not neighboring countries
- UK nicely started owning mutation story by volunteering to own B.1.1.7 strain (Alpha), and then they started peddling further mutations in India with B.1.617 and nicely pulled their UK strain (B.1.1.7) out of conversation, by throwing India under the bus. All this going on while completely controlling the narrative in the english media.
- For some reason, all the news, research about Indian strain ONLY comes out of the UK including Lancet which was started in the UK (when will this country stop interfering in India??)
- "viral lineage first identified in India", or similar line particularly repeats in each and every english media post again and again (usual suspects BBC, NYT, Guardian, WaPo, Reuters, SeeNN, Al Jaljeera etc.) without fail.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
There are plausible explanations for the so called excess deaths. Incidentally, reports of excess deaths have been reported in all countriesdisha wrote: Vera_k'ji, what is "excess death"?
What is death due to covid or death due to post covid complications particularly in ppl with comorbidities?
Is the issue over categorization of death (covid vs. non-covid) or on the numbers itself?
Which numbers are claimed to cause "excess death"? Crematorium death number vs. hospital death record? What about neighbouring district issue? Migration vs. non-migration?
In nutshell, the india today article is pure trash. The #mediapimps are plumbing new heights pimping their secularitis infected anti-indian stance.
though the Western press highlights India and our sepoys faithfully report it.
CDC in the US has a paper on their unreported deaths (actual deaths - ((expected + covid) - pre covid).
The Crude Death Rate in India is 7.3 per 1000. If that figure has jumped this year, a part of the increase is due to Covid. This is more accurate than comparing death certificates issued pre-covid and now. In several states there is an expectation of ex gratia payments for Covid, which is why people want death certificates issued.
There is also a difference between dying from Covid and dying with Covid. Many countries do not record the latter (e.g. Germany which was praised for its low death rate in wave 1). My understanding is that we record both.
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I was speaking to a retired member of the Indian statistical service late last year when we were both in our village. According to him the actual death toll will not be known until 2022 at the very least. Because the deaths are never attributed only to the Covid, the ICD 10 system is used. Second, the CDR is calculated on a year on year basis. So you can never calculate it during the on going pandemic. The CDR of India for the year 2021 has not been calculated till now.vera_k wrote:Excess deaths are calculated simply by comparing amount of deaths in the same period last year versus this year. So deaths caused as a side effect of Covid, say starvation due to loss of income would also be included. It's possible now of course that fake deaths are being registered to claim benefits because only some states show this discrepancy.
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
That's correct. The CDR for 2020 actually increased marginally over 2019 ( 7.309 vs 7.273) which may be the Covid effect.Pratyush wrote: I was speaking to a retired member of the Indian statistical service late last year when we were both in our village. According to him the actual death toll will not be known until 2022 at the very least. Because the deaths are never attributed only to the Covid, the ICD 10 system is used. Second, the CDR is calculated on a year on year basis. So you can never calculate it during the on going pandemic. The CDR of India for the year 2021 has not been calculated till now.
That translates to under 50,000 excess deaths in 2020 (the actual Covid death toll was higher)
We can only do realistic calculations for excess deaths at least 6 months later (e.g. if we want to compare deaths in Apr-June 21, vs Apr-June 20, the data will be available only in 2022. In the interim, press takes 1 city (e.g. Delhi) and 1 month of peak deaths (May 21) and compares with May 19, then multiplies by 12 (for the annual excess death figure) and extrapolates that to India.
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An increase in death rate OR decrease in life expectancy has happened everywhere. US suffered one of the worst.
U.S. life expectancy decreased by an 'alarming' amount during pandemic
U.S. life expectancy decreased by an 'alarming' amount during pandemic
Between 2018 and 2020, the decrease in average life expectancy at birth in the U.S. was roughly 1.9 years — 8.5 times the average decrease in 16 comparable countries, which was about 2.5 months. The decrease widened the gap between the U.S. and its peers to nearly 5 years, but the difference is much larger among Black and Hispanic Americans.
Compared with white Americans, whose average life expectancy at birth dropped by about 1.4 years between 2018 and 2020, the average Hispanic American’s decreased by just under 3.9 years. The average lifespan of a Black American decreased by 3.25 years.
“These are numbers we aren’t at all used to seeing in this research; 0.1 years is something that normally gets attention in the field, so 3.9 years and 3.25 years and even 1.4 years is just horrible,” Woolf said. “We haven’t had a decrease of that magnitude since World War II.”
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Looks like 6.3 million new vaccinations today. 24 June 2021.
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Within 3 days, UP will overtake Maharashtra in state vaccination ranking.
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What was the change in vaccination policy that we have such good numbers? vaccination drive is on steroids.
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Cowin shows today's vaccination at 60,36,389
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Supply and setting up distribution network/adding new centersrsingh wrote:What was the change in vaccination policy that we have such good numbers? vaccination drive is on steroids.
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Biggest change is the improvement on the supply of vaccines. Covisheild has ramped up to about 100 million/monthrsingh wrote:What was the change in vaccination policy that we have such good numbers? vaccination drive is on steroids.
In terms of policy couple of things have changed.
1. Center is procuring all vaccines. States are out of procurement.
2. There is no more quota for age group. The young are more enthusiastic about the vaccine and walkins are also allowed for 18-44 group.
The second wave seems to have woken up people and far more people are willing to take vaccines. Center is also putting all effort to vaccinate.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
The difference was due to PIB releases for day 159 and 160. About 6.277M from 7pm to 7pm. With the high rate of vaccinations taking place, daily discrepancies will occur due to timing of releases.Uttam wrote:Cowin shows today's vaccination at 60,36,389
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Why do these idiots continue to use instantaneous vaccination rates to MONTHs and predict full-vaccination dates. Do journalists not use their brains?vijayk wrote:[img]xxxxhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4ns9D_VgA0T7JZ?format=jpg[/img]
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
^^ only if they have any...
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Its one of the few professions that do not require a qualification to enter, only contacts. Software ensures that your grammar is corrected and google provides basic facts required to file a story. I have interacted with leading business journalists. Very few have a MBA or enough subject matter expertise to understand their story.Prasad wrote:Why do these idiots continue to use instantaneous vaccination rates to MONTHs and predict full-vaccination dates. Do journalists not use their brains?vijayk wrote:[img]xxxxhttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4ns9D_VgA0T7JZ?format=jpg[/img]
Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Please avoid turning this into a media bashing thread.
With 307.9 million as of end of Thursday, the vaccination numbers are way ahead of estimate. Originally I hoped we would hit 300m by end of this week and approach the US figure (317m) by end of month . But now we may overtake the US by end of week . Daily vaccination rate is now trending at almost 5.5 million trailing 7DMA. This is 5x US rate, more than entire America’s (North plus South) and more than combined Europe (not just EU).
With 307.9 million as of end of Thursday, the vaccination numbers are way ahead of estimate. Originally I hoped we would hit 300m by end of this week and approach the US figure (317m) by end of month . But now we may overtake the US by end of week . Daily vaccination rate is now trending at almost 5.5 million trailing 7DMA. This is 5x US rate, more than entire America’s (North plus South) and more than combined Europe (not just EU).
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread
Push push push. India needs to abort that third wave.