Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
srin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2509
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:13

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by srin »

Amber G. wrote:M
ay be Astrazeneca is better than mRNA
Not at all from the data - In Europe, Canada, even in US (J&J which is similar in some-respect to AZ)..mRNA vaccines are clearly showing their advantages ..(Most/many countries are clearly preferring mRNA for boosters - with *solid* data.

Not to discourage people from getting Covidshield / Covaxin - all vaccines are *much* better than no vaccine. The type of vaccine you get is *much* less important than delaying or waiting for better one. Also *very* clear from SA and UK data - natural immunity (from getting delta or other variant) also does wanes and is *not* a strong protecter (less than vaccine/booster induced immunity). So get a vaccine. (Have heard *many* stories where these people who 'cheated' or lied that they are vaccinated/tested -ive in Christmas/New_Year family gathering ended up spreading this among family and ruining family relations).
Sorry for late reply. But why is mRNA vaccine better than a traditional vaccine ? I'd expect Covaxin to be much more effective, because it doesn't rely purely on spike protein.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Suraj wrote:It’s actually 9.9 million vaccinations on Thursday looking at 7pm to 7pm PIB data. Week total is 42 million and month is 45 million, just six days in. 16.5 million teenagers vaccinated since Monday.
This week is on track to be the second best week since inception of vaccination. Monday-Friday daily figures:
9,247,316
10,116,832
9,566,037
9,881,992
9,519,831

That's right - average 9.5 million every day. I start count from Sunday (statistical convenience for data collection), and the week so far is 51.2 million, month to date is 54.3 million. Another day to go.

The best ever week was 67 million during week ended Sept 18 due to the 25m day then. As far as 'normal' weeks go, this is by far the strongest. Never been a stretch of 5 days with 9m+ doses.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12062
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Vayutuvan »

one quick question. are we not vaccinating on Satyrdays and Sundays? In India, several private clinics are there within close vicinity, especially in the cities. Afaik, they operate on Saturdays for sure. Sunday's are iffy. They actually do house visit's as well. we used to get a nurse to come to my mom's apartment and install saline equipment and keep coming back to change the saline bottles etc.
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Sure we do. Saturday is typically like any other weekday, and Sundays's are anywhere from 1.5-4 million doses.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Manindra Agrawal @agrawalmanindra
As expected, Mumbai peak has changed with additional data. But the timing of peak remains the same: around 15th Jan. The phase is stabilizing -- hopefully will by the weekend.
Manindra Agrawal
@agrawalmanindra
Jan 6
Overall, this wave appears manageable due to low hospitalization rates. Of course, things could change in next couple of weeks. Also, there may be localized shortages of beds. So proper care and planning is warranted.
Praying for this to become true. Will be a lot of disappointment in racist/nazi/jihadi media
Tanaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4521
Joined: 21 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

Would like some advice due to a situation I will be facing soon:

My elderly parents are covid positive, with father being detected on the 1st Jan and mother one day before. Father is recovering at home, mother was in hospital (for another terminal condition) and will be discharged on 10th. We will be having attendants to care for her who will be regularly breaking the “bubble” for want of a better word. This is in Mumbai.

I will be living with them for a while starting in a few days. I have had 2 vaccines and a booster 2 weeks ago. What reasonable precautions should I take on a daily basis in such a complicated situation?
Primus
BRFite
Posts: 1259
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: Ground Zero

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

Tanaji wrote:Would like some advice due to a situation I will be facing soon:

My elderly parents are covid positive, with father being detected on the 1st Jan and mother one day before. Father is recovering at home, mother was in hospital (for another terminal condition) and will be discharged on 10th. We will be having attendants to care for her who will be regularly breaking the “bubble” for want of a better word. This is in Mumbai.

I will be living with them for a while starting in a few days. I have had 2 vaccines and a booster 2 weeks ago. What reasonable precautions should I take on a daily basis in such a complicated situation?
Tanaji, the risk in living with elderly parents is more to them from you than the other way around. I too, in my family bubble have four elders, aged 82-92. Thankfully they are all triple-vaccinated and have been 'safe' so far.

Since both your parents have just had COVID - presumably Omicron, they are very unlikely to catch it again for at least 3 months or so, it is rare even after that. The risk therefore is mainly of your catching it from them. The current guidelines suggest that they are completely safe to go about society without a mask around 10 days after first symptoms (or positive test). Thus, by the time your mother comes home she is very likely to be fully recovered and will not be infectious. In any case, If you are fully vaccinated, your risk of getting it from them is also low and even if you do get it, it will be a very mild illness. If you want to be extra cautious, you can wear a mask around them for 3-4 days longer.

There is otherwise no specific precautions to be taken. However, do remember that there are other viruses and pathogens apart from COVID. We tend to be careful with our elders in this regard, avoiding unnecessary exposure in the winter months. At 92, even the common cold or flu can be dangerous.
VinodTK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2982
Joined: 18 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by VinodTK »

williams
BRFite
Posts: 875
Joined: 21 Jun 2006 20:55

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by williams »

Tanaji wrote:Would like some advice due to a situation I will be facing soon:

My elderly parents are covid positive, with father being detected on the 1st Jan and mother one day before. Father is recovering at home, mother was in hospital (for another terminal condition) and will be discharged on 10th. We will be having attendants to care for her who will be regularly breaking the “bubble” for want of a better word. This is in Mumbai.

I will be living with them for a while starting in a few days. I have had 2 vaccines and a booster 2 weeks ago. What reasonable precautions should I take on a daily basis in such a complicated situation?
If you had a booster Omicron is very mild even if it comes. Do the same thing that a health care professional will do. Masking, Social distancing, and washing hands where possible.
ManSingh
BRFite
Posts: 312
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 17:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ManSingh »

I have had covid-19 since Dec 28, possibly omicron. Triple vaxxed but I got the virus one day after the third dose. Precautions that worked for two years, seem to have failed me with this variant. No ongoing health issues and reasonably healthy.

It is mild to moderate. On the peak day ( 6th or 7th ), I ended up very tired. Other symptoms are of a regular flu, just stronger.
Nothing debilitating but tiredness was a factor for me.

I would suggest an N95 mask. Also it would help if you have sick leaves. No one whom I know recoveres in 5 days.
Primus
BRFite
Posts: 1259
Joined: 06 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: Ground Zero

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

I know of three people in my own close circle who got COVID, all confirmed with PCR. Two were young, immune compromised boys in their early 20s, they had fever for 24 hrs nothing more. Third, woman in her early 60s, only sx was cough for several days, no fever.

Another woman in late 50s, no sx at all, but tested positive by PCR as she had been exposed to somebody at work. BTW, all these people were fully vaccinated, the two women also boostered.

The symptoms are highly variable, from none to mild-moderate flu. This is for most people. Of course anybody can have a different course. However, this variant overall does not seem to cause that much hospitalization, esp in vaccinated people.

In the end, if you are living with elderly people, they are at much greater risk than you, this is true for every infection, not just COVID.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Tanaji wrote:Would like some advice due to a situation I will be facing soon:

My elderly parents are covid positive, with father being detected on the 1st Jan and mother one day before. Father is recovering at home, mother was in hospital (for another terminal condition) and will be discharged on 10th. We will be having attendants to care for her who will be regularly breaking the “bubble” for want of a better word. This is in Mumbai.

I will be living with them for a while starting in a few days. I have had 2 vaccines and a booster 2 weeks ago. What reasonable precautions should I take on a daily basis in such a complicated situation?
Wish you and your family the best.
This is not a medical advice - (For that, obviously, BRF may not the best resource - consult someone you trust).

Masks (very good quality (reliable manufacturers) - N95 -) Ventilation and other appropriate behavior is a must.

Let me share data for Mumbai - from SUTRA - and the current parameters - which may be helpful
(I had a long talk with some people/doctors in Mumbai recently - and this is what I shared with them over the long conference ) - Take it FWIW -

(Math is my strength - the calculations etc are also verified by other scientists I respect -- no one can be 100% sure but hope the following is of help)

Note that this data is for Mumbai

1 . Peak in Mumbai is going to reach around 15-20 January. The height may vary but it may be as much as 60,000/day (Peak value -7 day average 40,000-60,000)
(This value gives some idea how many people are carrying/shedding viruses around you)

2 - With Omicron - the loss of immunity (with Covidshield 2 shots) is ~85% on average (the value could even be higher). This means your two shots are only (sort of) protection about 15% from catching the viruses if you go maskless etc. The booster helps but unlike mRNA (in USA) we do not have much data for this in India/Covidshield or Covaxin (IOW - unlike delta - vaccine may not prevent that much from getting an infection - it still prevents from serious illness).
(Anecdotally I know *several* people who got the Omicron while fully vaccinated in India - The data here is not pretty clear too).

3 - Estimate is *not precise* due to error in estimating immunity loss - But this means your behavior in wearing mask should be similar to what you would do if you are not vaccinated).

4 - They are assuming/estimating about ~3.5% of the reported cases needing hospitalization. (about 10,000 at its peak for about 5-7 days on average). This may effect hospital admission or other care for your parents if there is need - the hospitals might be extra busy.

5 - The duration / severity for fully vaccinated people is *very* reduced - one may get the virus but apart from bad cold type symptoms for short time - no need to hospitalization. (IOW one recovers faster 5 days (vs say 10 days) on average).

6 - Children (and those who are not fully vaccinated) should be kept safe. (So if there are any children present in the house hold BE EXTRA CAREFUL)

7 - If symptoms are mild (*no breathing difficulties*) and access (telephonic) to good doctors - avoid going to hospital. (Check O2 level and testing regularly - but resting, taking medicine can be done from home - especially if you have access to good medical advice)

Check out regular update from reliable sources - The IITH sutra site is not updated regularly at present but hopefully it be up soon and will have current data - look for your locality (Mumbai).
(There are also many local resources run by institutes like IIT-M which may have video/telephonic visit/advice).

The url for sutra-consortium and raw data which I use is https://covid19tracker.in/ This is replacement for the old covid19 dot org data.

Added later: To add to Primus's excellent points - IMHO - Excellent ventilation coupled with Masking - as much as possible when you are with your parents (even indoors) - coupled with washing hands etc is *very* important...
Last edited by Amber G. on 08 Jan 2022 09:37, edited 2 times in total.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

There have been many studies published for antibody neutralizing data (vs Omicron) for most mRNA and coividshiled. I have posted some posts about them.

For Covaxin, - study of Omicron Live virus neutralization has been done and AFAIK published for the first time in India.
The study shows substantially reduced activity of vaccinated and convalescent plasma against Omicron. The preprint is here:
Here is preprint:
Sub-optimal Neutralisation of Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant by Antibodies induced by Vaccine alone or SARS-CoV-2 Infection plus Vaccine (Hybrid Immunity) post 6-months
Image
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

srin wrote:
Amber G. wrote:M

Not at all from the data - In Europe, Canada, even in US (J&J which is similar in some-respect to AZ)..mRNA vaccines are clearly showing their advantages ..(Most/many countries are clearly preferring mRNA for boosters - with *solid* data.

Not to discourage people from getting Covidshield / Covaxin - all vaccines are *much* better than no vaccine. The type of vaccine you get is *much* less important than delaying or waiting for better one. Also *very* clear from SA and UK data - natural immunity (from getting delta or other variant) also does wanes and is *not* a strong protecter (less than vaccine/booster induced immunity). So get a vaccine. (Have heard *many* stories where these people who 'cheated' or lied that they are vaccinated/tested -ive in Christmas/New_Year family gathering ended up spreading this among family and ruining family relations).
Sorry for late reply. But why is mRNA vaccine better than a traditional vaccine ? I'd expect Covaxin to be much more effective, because it doesn't rely purely on spike protein.
First I think we all agree - For practical purpose - getting a shot/booster is *much* more important than deciding which one should work better.
"Why" of mRNA is better (or not) than "traditional" will probably take years of study to get definite answer. What we do know is that some part - eg neutralization of antibodies can be tested rather fast (with in weeks) of emergence of new variant.
In my post I think I mentioned one study (but there are various other studies) which have confirmed that Moderna and Pfizer (Moderna measurably better than Pfizer but both around the same range) were significantly better (in *these studies*) than Adenovirus Vaccine (J&J doing worse than Covidshiled but both behind mRNA). In USA/Canada *most* boosters are now mRNA. (There are many factors involved - I am commenting here some summary - for details please see the original papers).

The Covaxin data - Just came out - see my post above - Data is data...)
-- As said before, apart from antibodies - Memory/T-Cells/NK cells provide protection - but it takes much longer to study how effective the effects are..
Hope this helps.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^It goes without saying that the above post is *not* definite data upon all aspects of Coviaxin.
Covaxin, without doubt, is extremely successful vaccine according to *massive* data from actual world data.
Some recent supporting data submitted to USA (in support for Covaxin to be approved in USA) is quite good. Some very thorough studies - data from India - The BBV152 (Covaxin) 2-dose effectiveness against reinfection was 86%. Findings suggest infected HCWs should receive complete vaccine doses to prevent future infections. (These studies are before Omicron but are recently published)..
Again for details please look up the actual studies and papers.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramana »

AmberG In India the two vaccines are Covishield and Covaxin.
So comparing mRNA to them is moot and cause hesitancy.
So what your point of view?

Ramana
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^For India - As I said *many times* critical thing is to get vaccination rate as fast as possible.
There ought to be NO hesitancy.

(India has quite a few vaccines approved for EUA - including one mRNA (Moderna), DNA , Protein-subunit like Covovax and Corbevax - but practically right now we have, Covidshield and Covaxin and a few more may enter fairly soon. Recommendation form everyone is NOT to wait for "better" vaccine but get a vaccine as soon as possible / as you are eligible -- ALL Vaccines are highly effective)
.
For scientists, it is very important to get data for *all* vaccines.

Some data (like neutralizing antibodies) could be obtained fast (within weeks) whenever a new variant appears - this is the data I was referring to from the world (mRNA, J&J. AZ etc including Covaxin) - this helps for government to decide the vaccine strategy (especially about boosters)

Somewhat bad news with Omicron is that it *seems* (from Mumbai data) to be escaping both vaccines.. so numbers are rising fast. But vaccines are still very effective for serious illness. In Mumbai - per data - about 96% of those who are needing O2 are unvaccinated.

The raw number of cases in India, it now seems (Per Prof Manindra Agrawal) are likely to go higher than the previous wave - Hopefully O2 and hospital requirements would be much less.
putnanja
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4665
Joined: 26 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: searching for the next al-qaida #3

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by putnanja »

Mumbai: 96% of patients on oxygen beds haven’t taken even 1 jab, says BMC commissioner
BMC commissioner Iqbal Chahal on Friday said that vaccination works and civic data shows that 96% of the1,900-odd patients currently on oxygen beds in Mumbai have not taken even a single dose of the vaccine.
...
“Even though Mumbai has one lakh active cases as on date, only 10 tonne of oxygen is being used. During the second wave, oxygen manufacturing by the BMC was zero but this time we have 400 tonne of oxygen storage and 200 tonne of our own manufacturing, of which only 10 tonne is being used. Only if there is pressure (on healthcare), restrictions will be considered. But today 84% of hospital beds are vacant and of the 20,000 cases reported in Mumbai yesterday (January 6), only 102 persons were put on oxygen beds as a matter of precaution.”
sanjayc
BRFite
Posts: 1091
Joined: 22 Aug 2016 21:40

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sanjayc »

COVAXIN® (BBV152) booster dose study shows Promising Results

The phase 2, double-blind, randomised controlled COVAXIN® trial demonstrated long-term safety with no serious adverse events.

6 months after receipt of the second COVAXIN® dose:
Durable neutralising, T and B cell responses detected, which suggests good immune memory responses and long-term protection from severe disease.
90% of recipients had a detectable neutralising antibody response against the wild - type strain (6 months after the second dose).


6 months after receipt of the second COVAXIN® dose, participants received a third booster dose of COVAXIN®:
Neutralisation titers against wild - type and Delta variants were 5 times higher than after a two-dose schedule.
Similar increases in neutralising antibodies against Alpha, Beta, Delta plus were observed.
The booster dose led to a pronounced increase in CD4+ T- and CD8+ Tcell response. This may allow COVAXIN® to confer long term protective efficacy against severe SARS-CoV-2.
The frequency of adverse events was lower than vaccines from other manufacturing platforms.


HYDERABAD / 08 January 2022: Bharat Biotech, a global leader in vaccine innovation and developer of vaccines for infectious diseases, today announced the results from the highly anticipated trial studying the immunogenicity and safety of the COVAXIN® (BBV152) a whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 vaccine as a booster dose.

This analysis re-emphasises Bharat Biotech’s continued efforts to stay ahead of COVID-19, and this update provides a comprehensive vaccine booster strategy. COVAXIN® is the first vaccine (in India) to report safety and immunogenicity results from a booster clinical trial. The analysis showed, six months after a two-dose BBV152 vaccination series cell-mediated immunity and neutralising antibodies to both homologous (D614G) and heterologous strains (Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Delta plus) persisted above baseline, although the magnitude of the responses had declined.

Furthermore, Neutralising antibodies against homologous and heterologous SARS-CoV-2 variants increased 19 to 265 fold after a third vaccination. Booster BBV152 vaccination is safe and may be necessary to ensure persistent immunity to prevent breakthrough infections.

Dr. Krishna Ella, Chairman and Managing Director of Bharat Biotech, said, “These trial results provide a strong foundation towards our goal to provide COVAXIN® as a booster dose. Our goals of developing a global vaccine against COVID-19 have been achieved. COVAXIN® is now indicated for adults, children, 2 dose primary and booster doses. This enables the use of COVAXIN® as an universal vaccine. We found the vaccine induces both memory B and T cells with a distinct CD4 and CD8 phenotype. Further, reactogenicity after vaccine and placebo was minimal and comparable, and no serious adverse events were reported.”

While protection against the severe disease remains high across the full 6 months, a decline in efficacy against symptomatic disease over time and the continued emergence of variants are expected. Based on emerging data, Bharat Biotech believes that a third dose may be beneficial to maintain the highest levels of protection.

COVAXIN® is formulated uniquely such that the same dosage can be administered to adults and children alike. COVAXIN® is ready-to-use a liquid vaccine, stored at 2- 8C, with 12 months shelf life and multi-dose vial policy. The same vaccine can also be used for 2 dose primary immunization and for booster dose vaccinations, making it truly an universal vaccine.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »



Amberji - Please watch this and give your comments
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Thanks. I gave this "96%" figure - (base on publicly available data) in a post just above ..Nice to see it being mentioned/confirmed in ToI.

One thing we are trying to tell admin (or anybody who may listen) is:
1 - Vaccines are good and very effective - even though one may get re-infected.
2 - *BUT* a huge population (all children etc) is still un vaccinated. We do not know how this variant is for children (The preliminary data is of concern - and we just can't assume it will be 'mild'). We still have to be vary careful in wearing masks - to protect this population.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile:
Was listening to oral argument in US Supreme court about vaccine mandates case, yesterday and - saw this news today.

BREAKING: Two of the lawyers presenting arguments to the Supreme Court to block vaccine mandate have tested positive for COVID.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramana »

Amber G. wrote:
Thanks. I gave this "96%" figure - (base on publicly available data) in a post just above ..Nice to see it being mentioned/confirmed in ToI.

One thing we are trying to tell admin (or anybody who may listen) is:
1 - Vaccines are good and very effective - even though one may get re-infected.
2 - *BUT* a huge population (all children etc) is still un vaccinated. We do not know how this variant is for children (The preliminary data is of concern - and we just can't assume it will be 'mild'). We still have to be vary careful in wearing masks - to protect this population.
If you were avidly following the news India is pushing for vaccination for everybody.
They achieved 150 crores first dose. Also, their vaccination numbers as a percentage are higher than in the US.
And vaccine for children over 12 thru 18 has been approved and is being administered.
And from 10 Jan those with the second dose can register for precautionary third dose.
There is no mild version of COVID if you are not vaccinated.
The Indian studies show the third wave will peak at end of January-early February.
The peak will be between 4 lakhs to 8 lakhs.
So all rea prepared for this event.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ India's vaccination drive is by all accounts impressive. 1.52 Billon total Jabs.
About 886 Million (~94% eligible adults) have at least one shot.
About 631 Million (About 67% of eligible adults) have two shots.


What is important (and impressive) is percentage of HCW or those about 60, or urban population the percentage is extremely good reaching near 100% in key demographics. (and certainly envy of the world).

We still have a lot of work to do, Fully vaccinated population is still about ~45% of total population. The drive to start vaccinating below 18 population has started *very* strong and soon younger children will be available for vaccination. India is on track to achieve what many consider a good herd immunity figure by middle of 2022. (More than 20 Million vaccines have been given to people under 18 within such a short time)

Till then, it is still extremely important to follow all covid appropriate behavior - especially use of good masks, even if you are fully vaccinated to protect others.

Let me just post some figures - for perspective and record. We need not panic but we can not afford not to take this pandemic seriously. (or consider it is just 'mild').

India is reporting
35,516,186 (+144,475) (Highest since June - almost 600% Increase from last week)
Deceased 483,281 (+86)

Mumbai, Delhi and some other metropolitan areas are showing large increase in cases - rest of India is, perhaps a week or so behind. It may take, may be one more week of data, to reasonably predict the trajectory but at present figures of400,000 to 800,00 are being projected by SUTRA team. (When we run figures based on Sutra -we can reasonably predict the timing of the peak but even a very small difference in estimating parameters gives a very huge uncertainty)

In USA:
-Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 hits 133,000, highest since pandemic began
-Number of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. rises to >901K with late-night report from D.C.
(Records "broken" few days in a row - Also *many states* eg California reporting highest no of cases)
- Average: 676 K (+62,444)
- In hospital: 133K (+4,880)
- In ICU: 22,116 (+409)
- New deaths: 2,708 ( Highest since September)

(In world >2.7 Million new cases/day ).
Last edited by Amber G. on 09 Jan 2022 06:10, edited 3 times in total.
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9319
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

same theme all over world? in UK most of the hospitalised patients unvaxed
Yes, UK data (where vaccination rate / Omicron spread both are high) is very telling . Equally remarkable is Israel data (and every data we have looked at). Here is one graph to illustrate this:

Evolution of these metrics in Israel compared to pre-vaccination.
(Israel is one of the country which has been very aggressive in vaccination programs - including boosters for all)

(3 waves shown with 3 very different situations:
- Late 2020: before vaccination
- July 2021: 55% fully vaccinated
- Now: 63% fully vaccinated + 45% boosted + omicron.)
Image

(Notice: Remarkably Low hospitalization, ICU, and death in spite of the largest number of cases)
(The graph looks very similar for UK too)
Raja
BRFite
Posts: 342
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

Is there a reason why India has gone for a 9 month gap to be eligible for a booster? Most other countries seem to require 6 months. I guess it is in sync with the wider gap between the first two doses.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 59773
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramana »

Raja wrote:Is there a reason why India has gone for a 9 month gap to be eligible for a booster? Most other countries seem to require 6 months. I guess it is in sync with the wider gap between the first two doses.
First of all it's a precautionary booster not a necessary booster for both Indian vaccines.
Second, the gap is to ensure all those who need it will get the booster.
Thirdly most mRNA vaccines that are used elsewhere are requiring regular boosters.
The fourth booster is being talked about.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Raja wrote:Is there a reason why India has gone for a 9 month gap to be eligible for a booster? Most other countries seem to require 6 months. I guess it is in sync with the wider gap between the first two doses.
The decision regarding "gap" between boosters, like most other policies, obviously involve *many* factors and every country makes its own policy.

The practice in other countries varies: In US it is 2 Months for J&J, (Adenovirus Vaccine in some way similar to India's Covidshield which is based on similar principals) and 5 Months for other mRNA vaccines. Many other countries it is 3 - 4 Months to 6months or longer - Including for AZ (which is same as Covidshield) (The clinical data and recommendation(s) to CDC from a few experts wants similar gap in USA).

So obviously there is no simple answer, more research and more we know may change the answer - Let us have faith in our scientists/ government to do what is best. Key point is get the booster as soon you are eligible. The boosters *really* help (overwhelming data) - especially for Omicron. (All in my family who are eligible have boosters or will be getting it soon (it starts in India on Jan 10th for many).
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile - The Omicron is making News even in China - and there is community spread!
China saw its first omicron cases in the community, igniting a mass testing blitz in the northern city of Tianjin as the country strives to maintain its zero-tolerance approach to Covid in the face of more transmissible variants.

The two cases in the port city were confirmed as being omicron by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention...
:eek:
(Link to rag where this story is being published is deliberately not given)
tenaliram
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 7
Joined: 29 Jun 2018 02:23

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by tenaliram »

During the second wave, if a person was covid positive, then they had to wait for some time after recovery to get their first/second vaccine doses. Is the same going to be the case now for booster too and people will have to wait for some time if they were infected with covid? So far have not seen any reports about this from the government.
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

tenaliram wrote:During the second wave, if a person was covid positive, then they had to wait for some time after recovery to get their first/second vaccine doses. Is the same going to be the case now for booster too and people will have to wait for some time if they were infected with covid? So far have not seen any reports about this from the government.
The guidelines say:
People who were treated for COVID-19 with monoclonal antibodies or convalescent plasma or people who have a history of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in adults or children (MIS-A or MIS-C) may need to wait a while after recovering before they can get vaccinated. Talk to your doctor if you are unsure what treatments you received or if you have more questions about getting a COVID-19 vaccine.
( Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHWF) in India, IIRC has some guide-lines where it says it *can* be deferred up to 3 months after recovery but as said before *ASK* your doctor )

(Talking to a doctor is *always* a good idea (vs depending on any advice you may receive here)
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Some of what I have been posting here is also now being carried in mainstream news media in India.

Covid-19 third wave: IIT-Kanpur professor says 8 lakh cases in a day expected; Delhi-Mumbai to witness peak by this date — check details
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9319
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/0 ... d-variant/

Delmicron unlikely ever to happen , false alarm was due to lab contamination
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Blast from the past! A year ago - Before the Delta wave ended up hitting India -

I shared this on January 8th of 2021 on SM .. and with everyone who will listen to us.
>>> Original Message on Jan 8, 2021
This is MUCH worse than many of us imagined. VERY SERIOUS!
Unless this virus is crushed NOW, we are in extreme danger. *Every* data suggests that the new B117 SARSCoV2 variant is so much more contagious ( Increases effect R by +0.4 to +0.7) & inevitable that **if we (or any country where it spread) does not crush the R<0.7 now**, really dark days ahead .. by Feb/March this may be very hard to control.
Please stay safe! Get vaccination if you can.
Buy some N95 Masks and use them if you are outside your home in a closed area.
If you have any influence with people in leadership - ask them to trust our scientists and do everything possible, including a lockdown, if they suggest so.
Image

This was just around the time UK Variant Alpha (along with Gamma) was beginning to spread in Mumbai - and Delta was already being identified and was of concern that it may spread..

I posted a similar message a few months later (actually many messages) :.. about the spreading power of Delta --(I called all my relatives in India - and talked to everyone who would listen, including to admin in India...)
.
<< This was on May 8th 2021>> something obvious to scientists ..But the prediction, as one can see, were *very* accurate. (It shows how the spread will go with typical R values achieved)

To be fair, some/many in central government in India took it seriously but I sure wish that those in Delhi and Mumbai administration listen to us more than playing petty political games -- Crowds, supporting Protests, spreading horrendous lies against our vaccines and what not.
R value for these places was about 1.08 on March 5.
It became even worse, right now it is back to 1.08.
PLEASE STAY SAFE. WEAR MASK (preferably N95), AVOID CROWDS and get Vaccinated as soon possible
The Message " WEAR MASK (preferably N95), Avoid Crowds and get vaccinated as soon as possible is
still as valid as it was a year ago.


No Need to panic but please stay safe! Use all your influence to talk to your friends. We can hope it will be "mild" but it will not be wise to rely on this being "mild" as mathematician say even "milder" 2 and 2 will add up to 4. Better be safe than sorry - Wear Masks and avoid crowds .
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9319
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-59925428 UK to give up on muft LFT for everyone, people will be asked to live with covid like flu. Finally govt seeing the light!
mappunni
BRFite
Posts: 364
Joined: 14 Jul 2017 19:07

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by mappunni »

More BS from another Woke at Dartmouth!!

COVID mortality in India: National survey data and health facility deaths

A Survey of 55k households and says the actual Covid related death in India is in the order of > 2 million !!

https://twitter.com/paulnovosad/status/ ... 68194?s=20

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm5154
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Vayutuvan wrote:
Amber G. wrote: Sorry but could not make any sense out of the question -- reference to "non-linearities" and "presumed second-order effects" makes no sense in this kind of modeling. ( In any case The model is pretty well descibed (eg ,
<here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.09158>... "Drifting" just means parameters are rapidly changing - perhaps due to a new variant)... Hope this helps.
I am talking about the stochastic nature of the parameters, i,e, there is a drift as in a stochastic process. Anyway, I better spend more time reading than spouting off on things I have no knowledge of.
Short answer - No "Stochastic Process" the model uses, what I'll call diffusion equations...Yes reading the whole paper would be very helpful in understanding.. There is no easy way for me to share some of my power-points slides to explain the main points but look thru IIT sites for lectures by some of the IIT professors who have talked about this model. (Basically parameters are not derived from "guesses" of theoretically aspects of viruses but from actual measurable data).
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Any news on emergency use of Paxlovid in India?
Zynda
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2309
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

I had posted an article of an interview with one of the major Indian Pharma CEO who had said that they were in talks with Pfizer to manf. Paxlovid in India but it may take another 5-6 months before it comes to market. I hope things are moving much faster behind the scenes. Perhaps Amber G can throw more light...on the same subject, Amber G, are there any data/reports of effectiveness of Paxlovid treatment among patients during the current wave in US/EU?
Post Reply