Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.siasat.com/covid-19-what-is ... e-2249381/
Covid-19: What is the Zydus Cadila’s new DNA nasal vaccine?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday in his address to the nation announced that the world’s first DNA vaccine against COVID-19 will be soon available for inoculation. This three-dose nasal vaccine by Zydus Cadila comes at a crucial time when the world is witnessing a sharp rise of the Omicron variant.

This nasal vaccine, ZyCov-D, will be administered through the nose with the help of a needle-free applicator called “PharmaJet.” It can generate an immune response within respiratory passages starting from nasal airways and blocks both infection and transmission of COVID-19.
I missed this nasal vaccine announcement. I assumed it is Bharat Biotech when I heard it. I did not know Zydus is working on nasal vaccine
saumitra_j
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saumitra_j »

^^ It is not a nasal vaccines; it is an intradermal vaccine, delivered without the need of syringes. You can read more here
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

(Ignoring/not_responding to trolling/not_helpful comments - Hint: the data / scientific_facts can be confirmed and expanded by standard sources)

Meanwhile:
Estimate for U.S, if we counted all the states (half the states not reported yet) would have been at least 646,000 new cases - which is the biggest one-day increase on record.
Some (reported/official data for the last day of 2021):
- New cases: 462,330
- Average: 385,038 (+37,578)
- States reporting: 23/50
- In hospital: 94,081 (+4,230)
- In ICU: 18,426 (+349)
- New deaths: 1,188
(More than 400K for fifth day in a row - and from NY City to LA - highest numbers).

France (232K), UK (190 K), Italy (144K), Greece (40K), Portugal(31K) to Australia(33K) - All numbers are also record-breaking.

Even Hong Kong - which went 3+ months without community cases have Omicron cases breaking out.

And India reports 22.8 K new coronavirus cases, an increase of 216% from last week.
(At present 90% of all adults have at least one shot and 65% of all adults are fully vaccinated. younger adults are becoming eligible and booster shots will also be available - Natural immunity level (~80%) is higher than US/UK)

It was only a two years ago - when the Wuhan Health Commission sends an urgent notice, reporting cases of unidentified pneumonia at a seafood market-- the first official word about COVID-19.

The phase is extremely drifting in USA and India for SUTRA model to predict reliably - The 'projection(s)' based on certain assumptions - was shared here and the current projection of peak about 200K (for India) in middle/late February - which some earlier peaks in cities like Delhi and Mumbai. Hopefully more reliable predictions (especially district-wise) will be useful for planning purposes.

For USA - soft upper limit of about 1.5 Million may reach (this is upper limit of testing capability of USA so confirmed cases may be confided to that limit).

To be clear - data and methods for calculating these predictions are publicly available.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

Jimmy Connors@JimmyConnors · 31 Dec 2021
@CNN @FoxNews @US_FDA You always talk about Pfizer- J&J- Moderna vaccines — maybe a nod to #Covaxin - #ocgn - an opportunity to have an option - a choice- allow COVAXIN to get in the game— I’m no Dr.- but the others have had a chance- why not #COVAXIN !!! #Competition #lookitup
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.republicworld.com/india-new ... -drug.html
New Delhi, Dec 9 (PTI) Biopharmaceutical multinational AstraZeneca on Thursday said it has initiated engagements with Indian health authorities to provide the latest evidence of Evusheld, its COVID-19 prevention drug for people with weakened immune system which has received emergency use authorisation (EUA) in the US.

The long acting antibody combination has been granted the EUA in the US for COVID-19 prevention in adults and adolescents (above 12 years and weighing 40kg or more) with moderate to severely weakened immune system who may not have an adequate immune response to COVID-19 vaccination, as well as those individuals for whom COVID-19 vaccination is not recommended, the company said.
Stating that the Food and Drug Administration's EUA approval for Evusheld is an important milestone globally, he said, "Recent data from the Phase III PROVENT trial showed a robust efficacy profile and AZD7442 (Evusheld) has so far demonstrated protection of up to six months against COVID-19 in this population."

"In India, the company intends to submit its application after emergency use authorisation by USFDA with a hope that addition of this monoclonal antibody cocktail will provide adequate ammunition in fight against COVID-19 disease especially for high risk vulnerable and immunocompromised patients," AstraZeneca said.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Recently there was an absolute trash -- devoid of any logic/facts and clearly and shamelessly written/edited by bigots -- was published in Bloomberg.

Allow me to share this in the response by Kanchan Gupta (Senior Advisor in the Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, Government of India)

Bloomberg’s Racist Fusillade Against India
Kanchan Gupta

The Western media’s anti-India bias that borders on racism, and its brazenly hostile agenda against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Government he heads is well-known.

The relentless, targeted attacks on India and its government by way of perverse reportage on the Covid-19 pandemic reflect this bias and agenda. This was most evident during the second wave when ‘news stories’ in the Western media became a grotesque caricature of human tragedy as the pandemic, which originated in China, savaged India.

It was a nonstop, morbid display of callous insensitivity, including towards Hindu funeral rites. By now, there is a certain familiarity to this racially repugnant coverage of, and commentary on, India by the Western media.

Bloomberg’s recent screed (“How errors and inaction sent a deadly Covid variant around the world”), which blames India for the devastation wrought by the Delta variant globally, validates how the Western media is increasingly perceived in India.

The sum total of the fact-redundant article, duly embellished with mendacious allegations and malicious opinion, is that India not only incubated the Delta variant, but also 'exported' it to unsuspecting countries, including China, causing loss of lives and crippling economies.

This would have been laughable, had there been no sinister purpose behind Bloomberg’s appalling attempt to tar and feather India. With the Omicron variant on the rampage and the US witnessing an all-time global record number of Covid-19 cases, while Europe struggles to cope with a massive surge of the mutated virus, the Western media should have been focusing its attention on how the pandemic is playing out in the West.

Instead, Bloomberg has chosen to focus attention on India’s second wave of early 2021, and, in an inquisitorial manner, accused the government of not preventing the spread of the Delta variant beyond Indian shores.

The timing is not coincidental: it’s timed to smear India and distract attention from the West’s woes. It is a dogwhistle for others in the Western media to respond in a Pavlovian manner.

Worse, Bloomberg’s abhorrent attempt to pin the origin of the Delta variant on India harks back to the racist description of the mutant as the ‘Indian variant’, a term which was discarded, even if reluctantly, after WHO castigated such labelling.

Bloomberg is either blissfully ignorant or willfully deviant. Just because a mutated variant of a virulent virus is identified in a country does not necessarily make that country the originating point of the mutant.

Before the Delta variant was identified, it was clubbed with the ‘double mutant’ variant found in Britain — or, as a scientist says, the variant identified in India is a progeny of what was then called the ‘UK variant’.

The Omicron variant was identified in Botswana, but just for that reason, that country cannot be labelled as the Petri dish in which the latest mutant of the virus took form and shape.

It is common knowledge, clearly alien to Bloomberg, that viruses mutate constantly; that mutations happen across geographies; that a mutant virus, identified in a particular country, spreads through countries and populations despite best efforts to contain it.

That’s how pandemics happen. It is absurd to assert, as Bloomberg does, that the Delta variant identified in India could have been detected earlier, contained and prevented from spreading around the world.

That is not how viruses work. Was the Government of India slow to report and respond, as alleged by Bloomberg, to the Delta variant detected in October 2020?

Did the Government of India hide information, as accused by Bloomberg, about the detection and epidemiological impact of the mutant virus? Both these questions are easily answered as the relevant facts, unknown to Bloomberg, have been in the public domain for long.

The rising trend of Covid-19 cases in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra in early-February 2021 prompted the Government of India to immediately deploy multiple Central teams of experts to propose ways and means of containing the spread of infection.

Based on their recommendations, samples from Mumbai and Nagpur were sent for Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) at the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) in the second week of February.

These samples were sequenced and the results presented before the Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) of the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) on 10 March 2021.

The results showed the presence of previously uncatalogued ‘E 484 Q’ and ‘L 452 R’ — two key mutations seen in the receptorbinding domain of the virus, in 15 to 20 per cent of samples.

The SAG came to the conclusion that such mutations could confer immune escape and increase the infectivity of the virus. This was conveyed to the government.

The INSACOG labs regularly submit bioinformatics data to the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). The first sequences of ‘B.1.617’ (Delta variant) was submitted to GISAID on 23 February 2021 and ‘B.1.617.1’ (Delta+ variant) on 3 March 2021 for review by international scientists and epidemiologists.

The results, showing the presence of the double mutant in samples that had been genome sequenced, were also shared with Maharashtra on 12 March 2021.

Subsequently, based on the recommendations of SAG, the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare issued a statement to the media on 24 March 2021, providing details of the genome sequencing by INSACOG and the mutation that was detected.

This mutation was designated as ‘B.1.617’ and a ‘Variant of Interest’ by WHO on 4 April, 2021. Yet, Bloomberg maliciously and malevolently alleges that the Government of India was slow and ineffective; that genome sequencing was delayed; that scientists were ignored; and, that India allowed the Delta variant to spread.

Bloomberg has not allowed facts to stand in the way of its agenda-driven smear campaign disguised as ‘journalism’. So, India took between February and March 2021 to figure out the mutation that had begun to spread in the country and share the data with international scientists.

How long did it take countries to report other variants and share relevant associated data?

As WION has pointed out, the Alpha variant emerged in September 2020; it was reported in December. The Beta variant emerged in May 2020; it was reported in December.

The Gama variant emerged in Brazil in November 2020; it was reported by Japan’s National Institute of Infectious Diseases in January 2021.

But Bloomberg stunningly says, “The actions India did — and did not take — as Delta emerged, ultimately saddled its people and the world with a ruthlessly virulent incarnation of the coronavirus... Delta upended even the most successful pandemic strategies, snaking into countries like Australia and China with stringent ‘covid zero’ curbs in place and effectively closed borders.”

If there’s something to be gleaned from Bloomberg’s screed, it is that the Covid-19 virus’ country of origin is free of all blemish.

Meanwhile, India, with its billion-plus population, is pushing ahead with the world’s biggest vaccination programme. Till 30 December 2021, India’s Covid-19 vaccination coverage had exceeded 144.54 crore dose.

From January 2022, the 15-18 age group will receive vaccine doses, along with frontline workers and 60+, who will get a ‘preventive’ third dose.

Bloomberg should try and compare these numbers with those in the West and figure out why are Delta and Omicron variants wreaking havoc over there.
Again FYI - there is a deluge of absolute trash in some other newspapers by usual sources - including Washington Post, NYT WSJ and some newspapers in India which are quoting each other.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/one- ... -heres-why
One Month After Reporting First Omicron Case, South Africa Lifts Night Curfew; Drops To Lowest Alert Level: Here's Why

According to the South African authorities, all evidence suggests the country may have passed the height of the fourth wave on a national level, with instances declining in all but two of the country's nine provinces during the previous week.

"While the Omicron variant is highly transmissible, there has been lower rates of hospitalization than in previous waves," the statement said, adding that the wave caused by the new variant has resulted in a "marginal increase" in deaths.

Other factors included the levels of vaccination in the country — according to the Reuters vaccine tracker database, South Africa has administered at least 27,903,338 doses of Covid-19 vaccines.

The database highlighted that: “It is going at a rate of about 35,124 doses per day during the last week, which is about 84 per cent slower than its fastest 7-day pace.”

However, so far, 32 per cent of the population has received at least one dose of vaccines (Johnson & Johnson or Pfizer-BioNTech).

Given the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant, the government acknowledged that the danger of a spike in infections remains significant. It urged all event organisers to ensure that all health standards are followed at all times and that all guests are encouraged to get vaccinated.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Image

Denmark situation does not look good in graph but they are saying different

https://nworeport.me/2021/12/30/omicron ... e-avoided/
The early signals from Denmark, along with other emerging data and studies from the UK and South Africa, suggest Omicron is less likely to cause patients to be hospitalized than the Delta variant.

However, Grove Krause stressed that concerns remain about the national health system, because Omicron infections are still disproportionately concentrated among the young.
Denmark has also carefully monitored hospitalization rates for both Delta and Omicron. Between 22nd November and 17th December, the hospitalization rate was higher for Delta cases, at 1 percent, compared with 0.6 percent for those who had contracted the Omicron variant.
Last edited by vijayk on 02 Jan 2022 04:58, edited 1 time in total.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Image
UK seems to be OK for now
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

vijayk wrote:https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/one- ... -heres-why
One Month After Reporting First Omicron Case, South Africa Lifts Night Curfew; Drops To Lowest Alert Level: Here's Why
FWIW - Some comments - (For those who are interested in scientific thinking and methods)
With respect to the fast peaking and now decaying wave in SA - which was achieved without lock-down etc.
- This peak was not extra-ordinary high compared to other peaks - (compared with other countries, say UK) (see below). SA the latest peak is just a little higher than previous 3 while UK's latest peak is much higher than it's previous peak(s).
Image
In fact the phase there has been quite stable (for SUTRA to use and draw graph).. and the graph has followed the predicted path.
Image

(The big difference between UK and SA case, a) SA had higher natural immunity (~80% in SA) but low vaccinations).

One learning about studying this is that this graph can be explained by taking loosing immunity into account. The fast spread of Omicron could be explained not so much by increased beta but rather than increased S pool.

This is further supported when we look the data in Europe. Denmark's data where phase is stable now (unlike UK and USA). Here parameter values for beta comes out actually less than for last month/previous phase. (Again this discussion is little technical but basically it means, a larger factor for the wave is people loosing immunity (basically vaccine induced immunity) rather than contagiousness of Omicron alone. (Yes, it is fun to look to see how different countries data fit in a mathematical model)

----
Few more days data and hopefully our phase becomes stable enough to make more reliable prediction for India - (This depending on more robust mathematical tools and current data rather than some guesses based on theoretical values and data from other nations alone).

Meanwhile - Use of Masks and covid appropriate behavior will help. Large-scale lockdowns may not help much but it will depend on admin -- what they decide. (Many countries and provinces in a few countries are having curfew/ lockdowns as a little panic sets in).

The phase in US is wild..Here is India and USA..
Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

This graph explains why Bloomberg is trying to focus attention on us, however dubious their methods may be. Except that there is one minor niggle for the Bloomberg and other assorted types - their house is on a rapidly spreading fire.

Another (rhetorical) question that comes up: why has the US been so incompetent when it comes to handling this pandemic? The US's plot line shows the troughs never really went down, unlike India's between the waves. So can I use Bloomberg's argument in the other direction and state the US has been incubating various variants through 2021 so as to spread them around the world? Stretching that argument a bit further, maybe the feedstock for Omicron came from the US too, and poor Botswana and South Africa were left holding the stick?

It's funny that these Bloomberg types grow a pair of b**** the size of tennis balls when they want to point fingers at India (or Africa for that matter), but they get completely shrunk to the point of invisibility when calling out China for starting this in the first place. Contrast this with the likes of Wion, who call accurately Covid-19 as the Wuhan virus to this day.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

A good article about Corbevax: "With proved technology and no-frills tech transfer, CORBEVAX is poised to reach hundreds of millions in the coming weeks"
A COVID Vaccine for All
The central government of India has already ordered 300 million doses. And BioE, the company manufacturing the vaccine, plans to produce 100 million or more doses per month starting in February. Approximately 150 million doses have already been produced and are ready to roll out. In addition to what the company is supplying to India, BioE plans to deliver more than one billion additional doses to other countries.

What this means is that CORBEVAX will soon vaccinate more people than vaccine doses donated so far by the U.S. government or any other G7 country.
<snip>
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

Image

Fauci was asked by scientists why r people not being given information & choice which vaccine to have .. he became angry expectedly
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vimal »

I can bet that FDA will never approve non-US vaccine because then the scale of public graft will be evident and put Moderna and Pfizer in a spotlight.
Fauci is in the pockets of Chins and pharma cos.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile:
in India
Confirmed 34,917,590 (↑27,740) - almost 300% up from last week.
Active 143,331
Recovered 34,279,503 (↑7,622)
Died 481,559 (↑36)

Image
These states are top on the list:
Image

(Will try to update prediction next week after one more week's data)

US: (CDC is taking a break/slow in reporting data for last few days/holidays) Partial data (from 14 out of 50 states reporting);
- New cases: 248,308 (Not all the states reporting - 7 day average remains > 400,000 - Highest )
- Average: 404,263 (+19,225)
- In hospital: 96,348 (+2,267)
- In ICU: 18,542 (+116)
- New deaths: 203

Tidbits: Israel okaying 4th shot for 60+ and above.

And even the most remote areas are reporting outbreak !

There was an outbreak in Antartica outpost (in spite of strict vaccination/tests/quarantine protocols) - no one imagined that the outbreak will take place in such a remote place.

And according to tweet from his verified account - CEO MyGov (IAS/Admin in GoI) and his whole family while on a vacation on this new year eve in remote Swaraj Island - Andaman Nicobar (Old name - Havelock which Modi changed to Swaraj ) caught the virus - all eligible fully vaccinated and were taking all the precautions like masks etc - and are now self isolating.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suresh S »

Those statistics tell a story. uttar pradesh with a population twice that of maharashtra has 1/4 the number of total covid cases . For one death in uttar pradesh there are almost 14 deaths in maharashtra from covid. With a population 2/3 rd of that of united states uttar pradesh has about 23000 thousand deaths and great USA closing in on one million. So much for this fake first world and second world and third world bs. When I saw their response to super storm sandy which was pathetic I knew if in the future usa faces a calamity of any kind their response will be pathetic. This is what happens when you are full of yourself, arrogant and ignorant. This is what happens when you are ruled by a real Hindu monk. Uttar pradesh is the best ruled large state in the world and I dare say will be the fastest growing place in the world for the next 10 years.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

Suresh S wrote:Those statistics tell a story. uttar pradesh with a population twice that of maharashtra has 1/4 the number of total covid cases . For one death in uttar pradesh there are almost 14 deaths in maharashtra from covid. With a population 2/3 rd of that of united states uttar pradesh has about 23000 thousand deaths and great USA closing in on one million. So much for this fake first world and second world and third world bs. When I saw their response to super storm sandy which was pathetic I knew if in the future usa faces a calamity of any kind their response will be pathetic. This is what happens when you are full of yourself, arrogant and ignorant. This is what happens when you are ruled by a real Hindu monk. Uttar pradesh is the best ruled large state in the world and I dare say will be the fastest growing place in the world for the next 10 years.
You cannot compare absolute numbers between countries and probably even Indian states. Definitely not without normalizing for several different factors.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

Looks like a good start to 15 to 18 vaccination drive
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suresh S »

The genetic make up and living circumstances of people in maharashtra is similar to the people in uttar pradesh and not USA but their mortality is closer to the USA. What the statistics is telling you is the difference in governence meaning effectiveness of lockdowns, speed of vaccination and population following (in UP) and not following (mp) covid protocols boss all other major factors being equal.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Primus »

Leadership, governance and execution of protocols matters too. I don't know about MH, but in UP at least they seemed to be doing a better job than Delhi. At Lucknow airport as we exited the airport there was a police inspector (not a constable), checking to make sure each arriving passenger had either a negative PCR or evidence of being fully vaccinated. Outside, as we waited almost 30 mts for our taxi to arrive, there were announcements being made every minute to keep your distance and to wear a mask.

This was in early December when there was no hint of Omicron in India. Sadly, the aam junta in UP did not seem to be observing the masking protocol as much, but that was the case in Delhi too. All the airport and hotel staff, shopkeepers were masked but the aam junta in both places had the usual mask hanging below the chin or no mask at all.

Returning to Delhi, nobody checked our papers or anything at the airport.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

Was in Varanasi late December, no one checked anything, travellers, staff and locals wore masks in the airport, but in the city, on the ghats, and in temples mask wearing wearers were a minority. No SD really speaking. Our cab driver claimed there can't be Corona in this holy city, but we gave him a mask and insisted he wear it, thankfully he did.

Hyd has overall better mask compliance than Varanasi despite the high floating population of the latter and therefore risk.

I came to the conclusion that masking and SD compliance really depends on how diligently local authorities down to establishment level enforce it DAILY - any slack and compliance falls quickly. Anywhere in India.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

I find the notion that there is a significant difference in the behavior of the general population between the different states at a given specific time to be highly suspect. I did not observe that at all when travelling to GJ, MH, MP, Delhi, and UP last month. Actually, MH was the most strict in terms of rules when flying in or out of MH. I did not go to Mumbai though. Also, sadly we were offered fake covid test certificates by one of our neighbors in case we need one for domestic flights. We did not need them and even if we did, we would have not accepted them.

What I found especially disturbing is the number of people subscribing to the belief that you should not get tested (even with symptoms) because the test companies are giving fake positive results as they are working with the hospitals to make you spend more money. Everyone seemed to have read about this on whatsapp. I tried to logically convince them otherwise but mostly failed, including with my parents.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by shaun »

Raja wrote:I find the notion that there is a significant difference in the behavior of the general population between the different states at a given specific time to be highly suspect. I did not observe that at all when travelling to GJ, MH, MP, Delhi, and UP last month. Actually, MH was the most strict in terms of rules when flying in or out of MH. I did not go to Mumbai though. Also, sadly we were offered fake covid test certificates by one of our neighbors in case we need one for domestic flights. We did not need them and even if we did, we would have not accepted them.

What I found especially disturbing is the number of people subscribing to the belief that you should not get tested (even with symptoms) because the test companies are giving fake positive results as they are working with the hospitals to make you spend more money. Everyone seemed to have read about this on whatsapp. I tried to logically convince them otherwise but mostly failed, including with my parents.
I boarded with -ve reports. scant sanity with complete absence of even basic common sense . Woke generation is reality .
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

Why did Israel continue to have so many cases, inspite of such massive vaccination numbers? Vaccine escape is a reality, at least you are spared death and hospitalisation I guess.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Over 4 MILLIONS between 15-18 age group received their first dose of vaccine on the 1st day of vaccination drive for children, till 8 PM.

Simply Amazing India’s vaccination drive.

India reports 33,750 new coronavirus cases, an increase of of about 416% from last week.

Here is USA, Now 12 years and up are eligible for boosters and the timing has been reduced to 5 months. (I was hoping/lobbying for 4 months - clear data supporting this . UK or Canada have this at 3 months - let us see if it gets lowered in USA.)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Tanaji wrote:Why did Israel continue to have so many cases, inspite of such massive vaccination numbers? Vaccine escape is a reality, at least you are spared death and hospitalisation I guess.
To me and most scientists - what is very impressive is that vaccines directed to the ancestral strain spike from 2 years ago, with the virus that's evolved over 290 million confirmed cases, (and now to the hyper-mutated Omicron) still has efficacy of near 90% vs severe disease with a 3rd shot

True, estimated by amount of mutation in Omicron - and now confirmed by data/SUTRA modeling - the immune escape is a reality - (my personal view, looking at the data, this is the primary cause for Omicron's spread - rather than intrinsic R0 - more of this later) .. this is why the booster shots are now recommended very heavily.

Scientific community is recommending booster shots - as seen in my previous post, USA/FDA has today shortened the time-gap to 5 months (2 months for J&J) and is recommending it to all 12 years old and above. There was a recent article in Nature which nicely summarized the data -

(I have not seen the data (and modeling) for Covaxin, but Covidshield (AZ) is included in the graph below - Such data would be basis (among other factors) for determining the policies of boosters in India.)

Graph below is self explanatory .. (The modeling is against Delta variant but is similar results are expected for other variants too).
Image
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

ambar ji i will ask the same question which everyone is asking. Will monthly booster become a reality, in UK/Europe hesitancy and lack of trust is creeping in for vaccine with 2+1 and now many countries scrmabling for 3 booster in next year (Netherlands)
https://twitter.com/NHSuk/status/147398 ... 34628?s=20
look at replies :shock:
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

There are lot of reasons why ppl will not believe in vaccine mandates and testing etc.

I recently went south of the border for a week. A major tourist destination and they did not have any vaccine mandate. The population there did follow the mask mandates and had thermometers and hand sanitizers everywhere.

Coming back we needed only a negative virus test report. Note that myself and my family are fully vaccinated+ (2+1 vaccines).

1. Mask mandate:

In an outdoor setting, it did not make sense to have masks. The temperature was very hot and having a mask was actually an hindrance. For me, it created breathing difficulties and I would imagine that the same will be the case for people in hot and humid conditions.

In completely indoor settings I would agree with mask mandates.

As a net result, I have developed a red followed by a dark shadow on specific areas of cheeks that look like a pale shadow of Abhinandan's mustache. Minus the gravitas. I hate it.

2. Vaccine mandate:

Noone paid attention to the Oximoron variant at that tourist place. Everyone were enjoying. Yes, coming back into states, entry with vaccine cards made it easy.

Following questions do arise:

a. If you had a coronavirus infection in 2020/2021 (either the first one or the delta variant), does it make sense to have a vaccine? Particularly the vaccine is not going to stop the new variants?

b. What is the point in going for a fourth vaccine? Will it not be better to actually get the O-Xi-Moron virus?

3. Testing

Testing was available for $35 per person with results in 20 mins. I do believe it as a scam. Since a negative testing is required for coming back into US. Why would a tourist place want you to be hanging around with a positive test result? They want more tourists in and not news of "positive" cases. Anyway, we did not have any symptoms to speak of.

So if ppl think that positive test result will require a person to visit a health care even if asymptomatic, I do understand that skepticism. Heck I have been fleeced of lakhs of rupees and thousands of dollars by the medical fraternity on unnecessary procedures, medications and misleading diagnosis. So the skepticism of a common person is very very very very valid.

4. Case numbers

What is the obsession with the case numbers? The first thing I hear is how dire situation is. Flighs had to be totally masked and the moment I landed, the air crew members were talking about the rise of Oximoron cases.

I stepped out of the aircraft with severe trepidation. Since I expected that half of the ppl in the airport to be dropping like mosquites who inhaled the insect killer. Something right out of a movie scene.

Thankfully, my trepidations were belied. Teslas were selling more than the case numbers. And the alcohol consumed measured in gallons was definitely more than the case numbers.

Of course, Dec 31 parties were cancelled. And everyone were watching this or that movie shivering in blankets (the gas prices are very high here).

The above are my personal experiences.

So get vaccinated and if you can mask up, do mask up. Leave the rest to nature. Maybe O-xi-moron is indeed a gift of nature to the humankind. Not sure if humankind deserves it or not.
disha
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

AIIMS chief statment:

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/aiim ... than-delta
India reported 33,750 new coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours—up from 27,553 on 2 January.

AIIMS chief Randeep Guleria has urged Covid-19 patients to isolate at home due to the Omicron's short recovery time.


According to AIIMS chief Randeep Guleria, the extremely contagious Omicron variant primarily affects the upper respiratory tract and airways, rather than the lungs—which is the reason why “we see very fewer patients with a drop in oxygen saturation or the other severe symptoms we saw in Delta”.

He said that individuals without comorbidities should not panic and asked them not to block hospital beds. Guleria urged Covid-19 patients to isolate at home due to the new variant's short recovery time.

“What we are seeing here is more of fever, running nose, sore throat, and a lot of body ache and headache. If any of these symptoms persist, they should come forward and get themselves tested. Because then they can isolate themselves and prevent the infection from spreading to other people in the community,” he recently told The Indian Express.
I think the #media wants to play up the numbers for political goals. If the healthcare staff is overwhelmed by useless cases and lock out really necessary ones, it is a great story for the grist mill.
IndraD
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by IndraD »

Covid antiviral pill launched at 1,399 for full 5-day course
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 675563.cms
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

NEW VARIANT—French scientists have rung the bell after discovering a cluster 12 cases of a variant of “atypical combination” with **46 mutations & 37 deletions** in southern France after index case returned from Cameroon—dubbed #B16402.
Covid warning as new variant with '46 mutations' infects 12 in southern France
Image

>>The mutations have caused “Fourteen amino acid substitutions, and 9 amino acid deletions—which are located in the spike protein.”
Link (Medrxiv article) : Emergence in Southern France of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of probably Cameroonian origin harbouring both substitutions N501Y and E484K in the spike protein

According to French Scientists:
"these observations show once again the unpredictability of the emergence of new #SARSCoV2 variants and their introduction from abroad, and they exemplify the difficulty to control such introduction and subsequent spread”
It seams the new B16402 variant can be shortcut identified using careful PCR analysis of signals different from Delta and Omicron… that’s good… shortcut tests faster than whole genome sequencing.
** There are scores of new variants discovered all the time, but it does not necessarily mean they will be more dangerous. What makes a variant more well-known and dangerous is its ability to multiply because of the number of mutations it has in relation to the original virus.. when it becomes a "variant of concern"...more contagious and more past immunity evasive.

It remains to be seen in which category this new variant will fall.
(The next greek letter is π (3.14159265... it goes on forever..)
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

IndraD wrote:Covid antiviral pill launched at 1,399 for full 5-day course
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... 675563.cms
This is very good news. Also hoping for Paxlovid (which is even more helpful with Omicron) may come to be available soon.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

It is always a good advice to urge "not to panic" but I don't know how any responsible person can still call this “mild” with a straight face. We are seeing 2x record pediatric hospitalizations. IOW US pediatric COVID19 hospitalizations are nearly 2x last year’s all-time high. Kids shouldn’t be hospitalized—kids should not be getting LongCovid. Kids have their whole lives ahead of them. And this should be of concern..
Image
(Image Credit HT DrWilliamKu ( http://HealthData.gov))

(Note: It is not just US .. for example in France it isis even more 2.3x

Please please please don't buy the “mild” propaganda hype. It doesn’t help anyone— it in fact endangers more people. And it’s not really that much intrinsically milder once adjusted for risk factors. PLEASE stay safe, protect you and others.. Wearing Mask is not a conspiracy. Protecting yourself with vaccine is not that complicated.

“Mild” but hospitals overloaded... (My locality it is already a crisis)
“Mild” but healthcare workers burnt out... (I have family members who are doctors and are exhausted)..
“Mild” but thousands of flights cancelled...
It is not a hoax.
disha
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Amber G. wrote: It remains to be seen in which category this new variant will fall.
(The next greek letter is π (3.14159265... it goes on forever..)
Cui bono?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Yayavar »

disha wrote:
As a net result, I have developed a red followed by a dark shadow on specific areas of cheeks that look like a pale shadow of Abhinandan's mustache. Minus the gravitas. I hate it.
:D This is funny.

***************
Adding my experience in recent India visit. Limited experience as did not venture out too into public areas.

I was in Dilli and Bengaluru recently. Dilli on international arrival had a check of air suvidha (cursory), then to a desk where they stamped the boarding pass before immigration. Some people complained that that they did not check the details. My view is that the real check is when you upload the vaccination record and covid results. That is what the green or red on your report indicates.

In malls and in metro there was good mask adherence - both Dilli and Bengaluru. In B'luru they checked vaccination status before mall entry - possibly due to omicron. At the same time B'luru is 95% vaccinated. In Dilli parks - people had masks at all positions from nose covered to down the chin. Some were wary and gave the other walkers wide distance, others didn't care. Not too diff than umreeka. I don't think the small shopkeepers were wearing masks.

The state in Karol Bagh, Chandini chowk or KR Market is out of syllabus.

In apartment complexes there is requirement of vaccination for all workers - maids, trash picker, security etc. I assume residents followed it too. All maids and workers i saw were masked.

In B'luru and Dilli all in a car must be masked. I assume reason is that they don't know if you are a family or in an Ola or uber. Didn't take any buses this time.

It is hard to stop the thing - so as you said earlier perhaps Omicron is the solution we needed (assuming that it is indeed mild).

RT-PCR is much cheaper than umreeka ($100 to $250). In B'luru they come home, take sample, send result etc., all for Rs 750.


On a side note - I had read Kulli Bhaat of Nirala many many moons back. In that he describes the 1920 epidemic and how in no time he lost most of his family including his wife. He described the dead bodies in the river. And now I see desi english reporters have discovered it and referencing it. They probably discovered it during the 2nd wave in India. But their research is only so much - they claim it is a story of a dalit. When the very first thing Nirlan says - Pandit Patwaridin Bhatt (kulli) was his friend.

Whether Dalit or Pandit the story would not have changed much. I am continuously disappointed by the journalists. One doesn't know what to believe if they can't even get this right.

That epidemic passed. This will too. Hopefully soon.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

On a side note - I had read Kulli Bhaat of Nirala many many moons back. In that he describes the 1920 epidemic..
Interestingly my father who was a teenager in 1918 epidemic - kept journals and describes this in quite details. I read those last year - quite interesting - lot of things changed in last 100 years but lot of things - especially people's way of thinking is still the same. (Our family have those documents saved and lot of it has been digitized so others can read it)
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

IndraD wrote:ambar ji i will ask the same question which everyone is asking. Will monthly booster become a reality, in UK/Europe hesitancy and lack of trust is creeping in for vaccine with 2+1 and now many countries scrmabling for 3 booster in next year (Netherlands)
https://twitter.com/NHSuk/status/147398 ... 34628?s=20
look at replies :shock:
As you know, short answer (about what kind of boosters/ how often etc) is - No one knows for sure - In fact if some one claims to know all the answer - they do not really know.

But Good news is: Vaccine works!


- Just in a week, 6 new studies have now reported how T cells, induced from multiple vaccines or prior Covid, hold up quite well vs Omicron (i.e. they exhibit cross-reactivity), which should help protect vs severe disease. (These vaccines studied are not only mRNA but India's covidshield etc).
For example from: https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/202 ... 22268634v1
The original vaccine-induced T cell response (via mRNA, and vaccines like Covidshield ) is durable vs Omicron

"current vaccines may provide considerable protection
against severe disease w/ the Omicron variant despite the substantial reduction of neutralizing antibody responses"
Image

For India - this is quite comforting as many places we have high natural immunity acquired during delta wave. (Another week or so data in India (about spread of Omicron should draw a clearer picture).

****
For non-vaccinated this "mild" version is still quite concerning.
***
Today - U.S. reports more than 1 million new coronavirus cases as many states dump holiday backlogs .. some states still has not reported the results - some-states counting computers are having trouble counting..and testing limit in USA is reaching.

The official count:
. Several states, like California (which is estimated around 300K) and Georgia, have no update today. (Georgia's health department says it's unable to provide an update on COVID-19 "due to a large amount of data overwhelming the system" ).
- New cases: 1,045,968 (Including back-log)
- Average: 494,660 (+81,979)
- States reporting: 44/50
- In hospital: 104,737 (+6,034) (highest since January 2021) ("Mild" ?)
- In ICU: 19,542 (+654)
- New deaths: 1,909
- Average: 1,343 (+33)
real-time data, for example can be gotten from: https://newsnodes.com/us
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Karan M »

Yayavar wrote:On a side note - I had read Kulli Bhaat of Nirala many many moons back. In that he describes the 1920 epidemic and how in no time he lost most of his family including his wife. He described the dead bodies in the river. And now I see desi english reporters have discovered it and referencing it. They probably discovered it during the 2nd wave in India. But their research is only so much - they claim it is a story of a dalit. When the very first thing Nirlan says - Pandit Patwaridin Bhatt (kulli) was his friend.

Whether Dalit or Pandit the story would not have changed much. I am continuously disappointed by the journalists. One doesn't know what to believe if they can't even get this right.
What is there to be disappointed about sir, after so many years on BRF or even on SM. Most of these worthies sold their soul to the other side for promises of lucre a long time back, whereas others are deracinated self-loathing types. They care nothing for the truth. The aim is to play ok with gora propaganda that preserves the self-image of the west as being the exemplars of human civilization whereas everyone else is either too dictatorial or incompetent or both.
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