Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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chanakyaa
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chanakyaa »

vijayk wrote:Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing

ANOTHER EFFICACY DROP—Not good—Israel Ministry of Health just released another vaccine efficacy update due to #DeltaVariant—only 39% Pfizer VE for #COVID19 infection, 40.5% for symptomatic, 88% for hospitalization, 91% for ICU/low oxygen/ death. More—waning efficacy too.

Gets worse, report also reveals waning potency, showing just 16% effectiveness against transmission among those 2nd-shot vaccinated in January, 44% VE if vaccinated in February, 67% VE if 2nd shot in March, 75% if vaccinated in April. Partly also age effect—but still bad.

Pfizer effect is waning over time :cry:
Yes, the stage is being set for a mandatory 3rd or booster dose. Another $3-4 billion...

Pfizer and BioNTech to Provide U.S. Government with an Additional 200 Million Doses of COVID-19 Vaccine to Help Meet Continued Need for Vaccine Supply in the U.S.

and, the plot slowly thickens..
Pfizer plots course for COVID-19 booster, but the CDC isn't sure 'whether or when' follow-up shots will be needed
ramdas
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramdas »

Some states (Kerala, Manipur come to mind) still have a very high testing positivity rate (Kerala's TPR appears to be increasing in the last few days). Should'nt GoI impose stringent restrictions on interstate travel to and from these states ? For instance, such travel should be allowed only for the fully vaccinated who have a negative RT-PCR test within 48/72 hours of travel. In the absence of such steps, it appears that the inability of some state governments to control the spread of covid may set of a third wave sooner than later.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

ramdas wrote:Some states (Kerala, Manipur come to mind) still have a very high testing positivity rate (Kerala's TPR appears to be increasing in the last few days). Should'nt GoI impose stringent restrictions on interstate travel to and from these states ? For instance, such travel should be allowed only for the fully vaccinated who have a negative RT-PCR test within 48/72 hours of travel. In the absence of such steps, it appears that the inability of some state governments to control the spread of covid may set of a third wave sooner than later.
Per SUTRA Model and latest data about Kerala (Check the website for details etc)-
Image
- Phase shift (parameters are still drifting so the prediction has more uncertainty compared to other states. But rise in Kerala is/was being fueled by expansion of reach (rho parameter). In beginning of April it was about 26% (much lower about half as much as other states like UP). In Mid June it was about 65% (that is 35% of population was un-touched by the pandemic).. current value is around 90% or more

- ICMR serosurvey showing ~48% seropositivity for Kerala in June - May be around 51 % have immunity -- but there is plenty of places where virus can spread.

- Kerala is testing well the main cause of TPR (and higher reported numbers) -- Data suggest that it is missing only 4.5 cases for every detected case. (Average for India for 1/epsilon is about 33 that is on average for India, about 32 cases are undetected for every detected one - per SUTRA model's current estimation).

- Control on contact rate (beta parameter in the formula) will determine how fast the pandemic spreads. At present, contact rate is controlled due to lockdown --. The moment lockdown is lifted, cases will rise sharply.

Don't know what strategy they will adapt .. extended lockdown leading to economic misery or sharp rise leading to stress in health infra for a short period.

(My view is that Kerala health infra is decent so it should go for a sharper rise leading to quicker end -- hoping people are still disciplined enough to carry out masking and avoiding crowds etc and extend strict measures for a little while till they can do mass vaccinations --- not an easy answer as there are many factors involved)

*****
This kind of choices are present and are being debated at many other places like Singapore and UK..
The situation is USA (where I live) I am really concerned.. models I am looking at or computing with latest data - virtually all data confirms -, it looks like unless population does BOTH masking and speed-up vaccination AND delta variant does not become more transmissive we are in trouble. The various numbers for R0 floated around for Delta - here goes from 6 and up.. and many states are already (NO surprise to scientists) showing expected exponential rise.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ Manipur, Kerala, Maharashtra as I posted before are few states which are being watched carefully ..
At present my take is still a small ripple for India as a whole in October - worse case about as bad as the first wave last year.
Of course future is hard to predict - no one can predict future variants or even how some people may behave due to some political drama..
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Mort Walker wrote:It doesn't look like they're going to make it to 50 crore by 1 AUG.
I am noticing a lot of similarity between the GoI's target dates for vaccination, and HAL's declared timelines for delivery of units of Tejas.

The deadlines are never met, yet the work continues. The targets are eventually met, but never within the dates initially announced. :)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Lot of details, hence posting in full

Don’t let daily count go above 50,000: Covid group to Govt
ASKING the government to prepare itself for a level of 4-5 lakh cases per day in the next surge, the empowered group of officers, tasked with formulating the nation’s Covid emergency strategy, has said that all steps should be taken to ensure that the daily count doesn’t cross 50,000, The Sunday Express has learnt.

This is significant as this guidance, effectively, sets a new benchmark for the overall system to go on alert, sources said, an element missing in the run-up to the brutal second wave.

Significantly, as vaccination rolls out, the group has put on record that the pandemic level be kept at a level of 50,000 per day by “non-pharmacological” interventions that include Covid-appropriate behaviour — mask hygiene and distancing — and carefully calibrated lockdowns.

As the second wave has abated, since June 25, the daily national case count has remained below 50,000 – on Saturday, India reported 39,097 new cases in the last 24 hours. Experts said this 50,000 level doesn’t overwhelm the system.

However, to meet the 4-5 lakh per day peak in a future surge, sources said the Empowered Group-1, headed by Niti Aayog member V K Paul, has recommended 2 lakh ICU beds – including 1.2 lakh ventilated ICU beds; 5 lakh oxygen-enabled beds and 10 lakh Covid isolation care beds by September 2021.

In effect, this means an additional 80,000 ICU beds and around 1 lakh more oxygen-enabled non-ICU beds given the current availability, sources said. Sources said that the existing number of ICU beds is sufficient to meet a surge of only 2.7 lakh new cases per day.

The group has proposed that 5% of ICU beds and 4% of non-ICU oxygen beds be earmarked for pediatric care in view of apprehensions that the next wave could hit children as well.

The peak level of 4-5 lakh cases a day – this translates to 300-370 cases per million population per day – comes with “unacceptable stress and untold cost” to the nation even if the health system were prepared to cope with it, the report has said.

The goal, therefore, the group said, is to set a warning level of 50,000 new Covid cases per day with the recommendation not to allow the count to breach this.

It is learnt that of the 2 lakh ICU beds required to meet the challenge of the next wave, a maximum of 33,000 would be required in Uttar Pradesh followed by Maharashtra (17,865), Bihar (17,480), West Bengal (14,173) and Madhya Pradesh (12,026).

Incidentally, on July 8, the Centre cleared Rs 23,123 crore for FY 2021-22 under which 20,000 ICU beds are planned to be put in place. Of these, 20% are meant to be pediatric ICU beds.

On vaccination, the group has underlined the need for scale-up and roll-out to meet national targets with mechanisms to counter hesitancy and factor in the need for booster doses, it is learnt.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

The adult ( 18+) population of Kerala is 23 Million.
Of these: 13 million have been vaccinated (at least 1 dose) and 3.25 million had covid. The State must be at Herd immunity now.

Goa is already at that level, Of the 1.1 million adult population, 1.1 million have at least one dose and 1.7 lac had covid.

It also shows cases are not being undercounted. The states have declared officially that over 15% of their adult population has covid.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramdas »

@Amber G.: The claims that Kerala is undercounting less than other states is what I seriously doubt. For instance, UP has a very low TPR overall, with a high TPR only for a brief period (3 weeks or so) mid April to May 1st week. TPR more than any other parameter should indicate the true situation at any given time. On the other hand, Kerala has sustained a high TPR for a very long time. A high TPR state tracking its cases better than a low TPR state just dose'nt make sense as far as I can see. If anything, states which sustain a high TPR are more likely to undercount, given that TPR above 7-8% is a sign of insufficient testing. The serosurvey numbers do not appear to be consistent with testing data from the states. All in all, it would be a mistake to rely on the sero survey to assume that states like UP have achieved some kind of herd immunity. Restrictions/conditions (such as full vaccination and negative PCR) should therefore be stringently applied when it comes to travel to/from states with a high TPR.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^(I do understand what you are saying..) Perhaps this can make it clear (So that we are talking about the same thing)
In mathematical modeling:
Let S = fraction of population which is *susceptible*
U = *undetected* people who have the virus.
T = *Tested positive* ( currently have symptoms, are in hospitals etc) - We have very good direct data for this.
R = Recovered/died (We have very good data for this).
The model tries to get as good estimation for "U" (and thus "S" can be calculated as S+U+T+R =1).
(Other data is use to cross-check, better fit, and calculate the parameters etc)
In Kerala's case , testing is good, (and nicely targeted) - better than most other states so it is NOT under-counting. As said before - for total India on average one is (estimated by SUTRA) missing 32 cases for every one tested case - For Kerala rising reported cases is partial due to better testing (compared to other states)
- Testing is efficient (Say because of better contact tracing - we test those who are more likely to be tested positive) in Kerala so you may get a higher value.

Hope this makes sense and helps.

(As to how much under/over counting each state is doing (say epsilon parameter) the confidence level in the values for most of the states is quite high - cross-checked with other data and recent serosurvey. etc)
--
With a week or so of more data -- we will be able to say more about the "root cause" or better understand - Kerala is stabilizing (phase-shift wise) so we can say more.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chanakyaa »

Indonesia is seeing a huge spike in Covid cases from a delayed 2nd wave, and help of 300 oxygen concentrators from India

Indonesia records more Covid-19 cases than India, Brazil
Indonesia on Sunday recorded 45,416 new cases of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) to overtake Brazil, India and the US in terms of fresh infections, according to Worldometer data.
Indonesia receives 300 oxygen concentrators from India
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Looks like we are crossing 6 to 7 millions today.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

7/24 7PM: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1738682 43,26,05,567
7/26 8AM: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1738942 43,51,96,001

TOTAL DOSES for Sunday 7/25 --- 25,90,434 doses
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

India to miss end-July vaccination target as Bharat Biotech lags
India will miss a target to administer over a half billion COVID-19 vaccine doses by the end of the month as Bharat Biotech - maker of its only approved homegrown shot - struggles to boost output, an analysis of government data showed on Monday.

India has undertaken one of the world's largest vaccination drives and has so far distributed some 430 million doses - more than any country except China, but less than many countries relative to its population.

The government said in May it would make 516 million shots available by the end of July. It wants to inoculate all its estimated 944 million adults by December.

To meet the July-end target, however, authorities will have to more than triple average daily vaccinations to 14 million doses. But that will not be possible, based on the latest supply projections for Bharat Biotech's Covaxin vaccine.

The government had been counting on deliveries of 60 million to 70 million Covaxin doses monthly from July or August.

But Bharat Biotech will only supply 25 million doses this month and 35 million in August as a new production line in the southern city of Bengaluru takes time to come online, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya told parliament last week.

Mandaviya added that the supply shortfall "would not affect our immunisation programme".

The government is counting on 500 million doses of another vaccine from the Serum Institute of India (SII) and 400 million doses from Bharat Biotech between August and December for its vaccination campaign.

India's drug regulator controversially approved Bharat Biotech's Covaxin for emergency use in early January without efficacy data. But it has missed nearly all supply commitments to the government.

Immunisation efforts have also been hobbled by a delayed rollout of Russia's Sputnik V vaccine. And legal obstacles have prevented India from receiving U.S. donations of Moderna or Pfizer vaccines.

After halting exports in mid-April to meet domestic demand, SII meanwhile has nearly doubled output in the past three months.

Nearly 88% of all vaccine doses administered in India to date have been SII's Covishield shot, a version of the the AstraZeneca vaccine.

The government expects the company to raise supplies of its Covishield vaccine to about 120 million doses in August from 100 million doses in June.
So, total supply = 10 + 2.5 = 12.5 crore doses in July
12 + 3.5 = 15.5 crore doses in August.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

44,10,57,103 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1739260 (Monday 26 JUL 2021 7 PM)
43,51,96,001 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1738942 (Monday 7/26 8AM)

Monday Total - 58,61,102

Great start to the week.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramdas »

Looks like there is a large surge in covid cases in Kerala (22000+ today with TPR >12%). A third wave is inevitable unless travel to and from Kerala is permitted only for the fully vaccinated having a negative RTPCR test. Hope GoI acts decisively here and protects the other states from the fallout of the Kerala govt's inability to control this.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

44,10,57,103 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1739260 (Monday 26 JUL 2021 7 PM)
44,58,39,699 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1739652 (27 JUL 2021 8:03PM)

Tuesday total 47,82,596
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

vijayk wrote:44,10,57,103 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1739260 (Monday 26 JUL 2021 7 PM)
44,58,39,699 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1739652 (27 JUL 2021 8:03PM)

Tuesday total 47,82,596
Cumulative total first dose = 34,90,83,823
Cumulative total second dose = 9,67,55,876

So, if the target adult population is 94.4 crores, then India has now fully vaccinated over 10% of its adult (18+) population
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Made in India Sputnik V to be available during September- October: Dr Reddy's
Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd expects the locally manufactured Russia's COVID-19 vaccine Sputnik V to be available from September-October period, a senior official of the city-based drug maker said on Tuesday. M V Ramana, CEO of Branded Markets (India and Emerging Markets), Dr Reddys, said due to the sudden spike of COVID-19 cases in Russia, the arrival of Sputnik V doses are getting delayed and the situation may ease by August end.

"The local manufacturers are currently in the process of Technology absorption and scale up.

And we expect and from the October-September timeframe we are likely to have locally manufactured sputnik available," Ramana told reporters.

Ramana said the company is in discussions with RDIF for ramping up supplies.

RDIF has tied up with six Indian drug makers to manufacture Sputnik V.

Dr Reddy's is in a pact with Russian Direct Investment Fund to sell the first 125 million people doses (250 million vials) of COVID-19 vaccineSputnikVin India.

The official said the vaccine was launched in 80 cities and over 2.5 lakh people have been administered the jab.

On the arrival of more Sputnik V stock from RDIF, Ramana said "What we wait for now is the balance of the second dose and we are in discussions with RDIF.


We do expect to hear back from them by the end of July.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Kakkaji wrote:
vijayk wrote:44,10,57,103 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1739260 (Monday 26 JUL 2021 7 PM)
44,58,39,699 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1739652 (27 JUL 2021 8:03PM)

Tuesday total 47,82,596
Cumulative total first dose = 34,90,83,823
Cumulative total second dose = 9,67,55,876

So, if the target adult population is 94.4 crores, then India has now fully vaccinated over 10% of its adult (18+) population
If we can raise 7 day average to 5 M, that can be a good start
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 11918.html
Biological E likely to launch its Covid-19 vaccine by September-end: Report
The made-in-India vaccine, called Corbevax, is currently undergoing phase 3 clinical trials.
The vaccine, which is currently undergoing phase 3 clinical trials, is based on the RBD protein sub-unit platform. Biological E is expected to apply for its emergency use authorisation (EUA) by the end of next month and will provide 300 million doses of to the Union government by December 2021, as announced by the Union ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) in June. "The Union ministry of health would be making an advance payment of ₹1500 crore to Biological E," a statement by the ministry had said.


Though the efficacy of Corbevax is not yet known, Dr NK Arora, who heads the Centre's Covid-19 working group, said last month that its efficacy is likely to be similar as that of NVX-CoV2373, developed by American firm Novavax, as the two vaccines have a common platform. According to Novavax, its vaccine has demonstrated 100% protection from moderate and severe Covid-19, with an overall efficacy of 90.4%. Pune-based Serum Institute of India (SII) is manufacturing this jab as Covovax in India.
Last edited by vijayk on 27 Jul 2021 23:38, edited 1 time in total.
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/zyd ... 92253.html

Zydus had on 1 July applied for emergency use authorization of its ZyCoV-D three-dose Covid-19 vaccine
If given approval, the vaccine would become the fifth vaccine cleared for use in India
The regulator's Subject Expert Committee (SEC) will examine the additional data and decide on granting the emergency use authorisation (EUA) based on it.

Previously, the ANI had reported that a continuous and rolling review of data was being undertaken and final approval would take a few more days.

Approval for Zydus Cadila

The Ahmedabad-based pharmaceutical firm had on 1 July applied for emergency use authorization of its ZyCoV-D three-dose Covid-19 vaccine.

The company also submitted data evaluating a two-dose regimen for the shot. The SEC is likely to compare the data and make a decision on its go-ahead.

Old news

https://www.zyduscadila.com/public/pdf/ ... 7_2021.pdf
Zydus Cadila today announced that the company has applied for Emergency Use Authorization
(EUA) to the office of Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) for ZyCoV-D - its Plasmid
DNA Vaccine against COVID-19. The company conducted the largest clinical trial for its
COVID-19 vaccine in India so far in over 50 centers. This was also the first time that any
COVID-19 vaccine has been tested in adolescent population in the 12-18 years age group in
India. Around 1000 subjects were enrolled in this age group and the vaccine was found to be
safe and very well tolerated. The tolerability profile was similar to that seen in the adult
population. Primary efficacy of 66.6% has been attained for symptomatic RT-PCR positive
cases in the interim analysis. Whereas, no moderate case of COVID-19 disease was observed
in the vaccine arm post administration of the third dose suggesting 100% efficacy for moderate
disease. No severe cases or deaths due to COVID-19 occurred in the vaccine arm after
administration of the second dose of the vaccine.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

How is BiologicalE applying for a EUA in the US? I thought the FDA were denying any more vaccine EUAs, or at least that was what was said when they denied it to Bharat Biotech…
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by nandakumar »

After dipping below 30,000 fresh infections per day, yesterday's number at 42,000 is a bit worrisome. For some reason Kerala numbers refuses to decline. If anything they are on the ascendancy. Maharashtra numbers are declining. But the rate of decline has plateaued. Don't know what to make of it.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

nandakumar wrote:After dipping below 30,000 fresh infections per day, yesterday's number at 42,000 is a bit worrisome. For some reason Kerala numbers refuses to decline. If anything they are on the ascendancy. Maharashtra numbers are declining. But the rate of decline has plateaued. Don't know what to make of it.
ramdas wrote:Looks like there is a large surge in covid cases in Kerala (22000+ today with TPR >12%). A third wave is inevitable unless travel to and from Kerala is permitted only for the fully vaccinated having a negative RTPCR test. Hope GoI acts decisively here and protects the other states from the fallout of the Kerala govt's inability to control this.
Per SUTRA analysis (There may be report of this in Indian papers say see here: https://epaper.navodayatimes.in/c/62078271

==> Compared to other states, Indian North-East states and Kerala the numbers are not increasing. (or not declining as rapidly as other states).
==> North-East the delta-wave is little lagging from the other parts of India.
==> Kerala is different from above. The recent sero-survey confirms that the immunity there is close to 50% rather than around 70% in many other states in North India.
===> The main reason (per this analysis) is Kerala's strategy of containment (local travel restrictions). The strategy like South Korea, China, Australia kept the initial spread to minimum. But this kind of strategy requires long time discipline. As the state "opens" up (less masking etc) the cases are going to rise. (The rise fits with the model quite nicely).
===>The 'reach' in Kerala is constantly increasing.. now the the "rho" is around 90% (up from about 20-30% in March).
===> Vaccinations in my opinion are thus extremely important to be speeded up as much as possible to get immunity..
****
Meanwhile in USA, per this model, we are looking at a darker picture .. 150K/day by the end of August and many more hospitalizations etc than say UK..
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

45,02,55,460 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1740057. (28 JUL 2021 8:27PM Wednesday)

44,58,39,699 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1739652 (27 JUL 2021 8:03PM)


Total for Wednesday. 44,15,761
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ramdas »

1) A seropositivity of 70% or so in UP in particular does not square with the low TPR that state has had relative to most others. That should, if anything indicate that UP undercounted less than states that have sustained a high TPR. It may well be that the distribution of covid exposure in UP is very uneven: cities and nearby rural areas having had a wave, with more remote rural areas unexposed. The nigrani samitis formed by the UP govt. indicate this possibility. It then follows that it would be dangerous for UP and other states in the north having a low current TPR to lower their guard assuming herd immunity based on the sero survey. The good thing is that UP is conducting ~2.2-2.5 lakh tests every day even though it is getting <100 cases.

2) One silver lining is the increased testing in Kerala (~22000 positive in ~197000 tests). Hope this sustains and the TPR comes down.

3) Maharashtra, on the other hand, has decreased testing to < 2lakh today. That is not a good sign.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

India ordered 100 crore Covid vaccine doses till July 16: Centre
NEW DELHI: The government has so far ordered about 100 crore doses of Covid vaccine, two-thirds of that in the last two weeks. This was revealed in a health ministry response to a question in Rajya Sabha. According to the reply, 66 crore doses were ordered on July 16 out of 100.6 crore doses ordered so far by the central government.

Till March 12, the government had ordered only 18.6 crore doses, after which it ordered 16 crore on May 5. Till May end, it had ordered 26.6 crore doses of Covishield and eight crore doses of Covaxin.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

45,02,55,460 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1740057. (28 JUL 2021 8:27PM Wednesday)

45,55,02,438 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.as ... ID=1740445 ( 29 JUL 2021 8:21 PM Thursday

Total for Thursday 52,46,978
Kakkaji
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

vijayk wrote:45,02,55,460 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1740057. (28 JUL 2021 8:27PM Wednesday)

45,55,02,438 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.as ... ID=1740445 ( 29 JUL 2021 8:21 PM Thursday

Total for Thursday 52,46,978
Cumulative First Dose = 35,57,38,086 doses
Cumulative Second Dose = 9,97,64,352 doses
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Congressman Slams US Mask Rule Blaming "India Study", Is Called "A Moron"
Agree with speaker with when she describes House Minority leader as "moron" when he blamed CDC's recommendation as 'India Study' . (I think he is reprehensible person anyway but ..).

Kevin McCarthy spoke against a proposal to reinstitute a mask mandate in the House of Representatives.



Washington: A top Republican leader has slammed the ruling Democratic party and the Center for Disease Prevention and Control for reimposing a mask mandate for vaccinated people in certain circumstances, alleging that the latest regulation is based on data from India.
Congressman Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Leader, was speaking against a bill that proposed to reinstitute a mask mandate in the House of Representatives.

He alleged that the latest recommendations by the Center for Disease Prevention and Control (CDC) is based on a report that has not been reported yet.

The Republican leader, however, did not specify the report.

Referring to a conversation he had with a House doctor, McCarthy said that the report "was based upon India about a vaccine that is not approved in America."

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi slammed the opposition leader and described him as "a moron".

However, McCarthy asserted that the Indian report "did not even pass peer review."

"The mask mandate is based upon a study in India, based upon a vaccine that isn''t approved in America that didn''t pass peer review. Could this be a plan to keep our schools closed?" he asked.

His fellow Republican, Congressman Dan Crenshaw joined him on social media to support him.

"Here''s the truth, America: The "game changer" data the CDC used for the mask mandate is from a single study from India. The study was rejected in peer review. But the CDC used it anyway. Remember what I said about public health officials losing our trust? It gets worse," he said on Twitter.
Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

What is this Indian Study that McCarthy is talking about? I did not find any Indian study. But found references to some study (which is yet to be peer reviewed) about Delta Variant (mis identified as Indian variant) and how people who have taken Astra Zaneca or Pfyzer vaccines are now only protected about 80% or so. Is this guy picking up two different ideas and mixing them up?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

^^^ *Many* studies, models, research articles etc are from India and Indian scientists..Indian and US institutions work fairly close these days.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

The US has created its own problems with the current administration who have failed to manage the pandemic. Removing the mask mandates in late May 2021 was an invitation to trouble when less than 40% of the country was vaccinated. The CDC gave flawed guidance. The US Dept. of Education gave mixed recommendations on reopening schools last spring semester. Now the CDC is asking to mask up once again knowing there will be opposition to it. The stupidity of it all including the inability of the administration to provide clear quantifiable guidelines for masks requirements and social distancing. Half baked schemes to provide $100/person who is vaccinated and people working federal facilities to be vaccinated (a group who is probably already >80% vaccinated). The administration has no clue what to do except hand out money to Pfizer and delay the development and deployment of vaccines in the pipeline. Corrupt ba$tards.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

The politics of this pandemic in the United States is the most incomprehensible aspect of the situation.

Political parties trying to take advantage of the situation is understood.

But even the scientific community was political in its early response.

How can scientific advise be followed by the population at large? When it becomes clear that the early actions of the community was tainted with political cconsiderations.

To make matters worst the democratic party took it as an opportunity to completely reshape society.

It was quite amazing to see what was happening in the United States.

It was repeated in a small extent in Western Europe.

We saw what happened in India during the second wave. The opposition playing politics. With the government acting as it was dear caught in the head lights.

Let's hope that, if and when, a thrid wave does come. We are in a relatively better position in terms of preparation.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

46 crore crossed today with 44.38 lakh vaccinated.

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1740863
saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Total doses administered so far all over the world: 4.1 Billion
China : 1.6 billion
Another billion or so doses were distributed by China.
How did it do that? Others are struggling to ramp up production but China had no problem.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

saip wrote:What is this Indian Study that McCarthy is talking about? I did not find any Indian study. But found references to some study (which is yet to be peer reviewed) about Delta Variant (mis identified as Indian variant) and how people who have taken Astra Zaneca or Pfyzer vaccines are now only protected about 80% or so. Is this guy picking up two different ideas and mixing them up?
FWIW - There are quite a few stories coming out in a few news papers about these CDC internal documents "leaking" .. and it (and general scientific ignorance in general) is causing and tamasha. (many GOP congressman making ridiculous statements about not wearing masks and other similar amazing stunts).

From scientific point of view - these "slides" and documents with US and many other nations data (including India, Singapore, UK and many other countries) talk about Delta variant.

Key points: (Per scientists who I trust and have written about it) from these slides:
Bottom line:
- Delta variant is a problem
- Vaccines prevent vast majority of infections, transmission
- Vaccines prevent nearly all hospitalizations, deaths
-it is really, really contagious (More than Ebola, Spanish Flu and probably chicken pox
Image

- It appears to cause more serious disease if you get infected (The data here is suggestive but not definitive)
Image
BUT the vaccines are working.
- 80-90% effectiveness against symptomatic infection
-90-95% effectiveness against severe disease
(From virtually *ALL* countries - Covidshield/Covaxin are quite effective )
- US (CDC data is this report -from what I see) says about 88% for US cases. Above 90% severe disease.
Quite a bit data about "breakthrough infections" ( Among fully vaccinated - Less than 1 in a million people hospitalization and 1 in 2.5 million people for death/ICU - (time period is 1 week).
Image

And yes, there is lot of talk about "modeling" about masks/vaccines etc - to recommend which behaviour would be most effective etc -- Yours truly (and others) have sent the SUTRA modeling techniques to them - it seems it is one of the best tool :)

According to the modeling:
- Universal masking is critically important..( even assume no other behavior change like avoiding large gatherings, etc)
- Near universal vaccinations is good but we are not there yet.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

46,06,56,534 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1740863 (30 JUL 2021 8:08PM Friday)
45,55,02,438 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.as ... ID=1740445 ( 29 JUL 2021 8:21 PM Thursday)

Total for Friday 51,54,096 doses

Cumulative First Dose = 35,91,31,843 doses
Cumulative Second Dose = 10,15,24,691 doses
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

The following video of an RJD MP Manoj Jha is a good one to watch. If you don't understand Hindi, then turn on subtitles. It is brutally honest and dated recently 20 July 2021.

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