Have not following this thread (or brf) for a while. Allow me to share some updates wrt to "super model" ( Lead by team of Prof Vidyasagar, Prof Agrawal and consisting of experts in epidemiology, virology, and medicine). The model is now called the famous SUTRA (Susceptible, Untested, Tested, Recovered (or removed) Approach). I do like the name.
I posted long ago (last year - September/October time frame - Check out earlier posts) the model and future prediction. The model projected values were in quite a good agreement (relatively speaking) with actual data till end (or middle) of February around the time transmissivity (beta) of some variants (eg UK B117, and other VoC's) changed parameters. Since India did not have good data/testing /sequencing for variants, it wasn't till middle of March we started worrying about the "second wave"..Were not sure how bad that will be but we knew about the timing (Mid May) and the knowledge that it will be quite bad.. some leaders listened to Scientists some did not (or listened as much as they should)..
Anyway First graph is SUTRA's projection from beginning of this pandemic for India. The second is zoomed in recent version. (Hot off the press, with the most current parameters).
We (our scientists) have shared and have been sharing this with all stake-holders..May be there may be a better central place to share this with aam junta. For the last month, many of us have been sharing this graphs (State level and even city level - so that one can project local peak etc).
For India:
(This was produced around beginning of April - It is 7 day's average (daily peak can vary by significant amount).. Plotting of graph was done for "active case" (much easy to verify with actual data) so that we can see how accurate these models and their parameters have been. (Point to note: "active" lags about 10 days from "new" infactions)
Here is zoomed in Version: (plotting "new infections"
We are at the peak right now (India in General - different states have peaked at slightly different time etc)
The values are 7 day averages .. (About 390,000 - but actual daily value can go more than 400,000)..
Again Timing of the peak (5-11 May - derived months ago) is much more reliable than the height (as smallest intervention can change the results in drastic ways.
Please stay safe!
(SINGLE MOST Important factor right now is use a good mask (preferably N95), wear it properly, and avoid big crowds)