Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
arshyam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4570
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

Sachin wrote:4. Average treatment cost/person was Rs 1. lakh and in my case, cost at hospital in KL side was higher. The money makers in this pandemic is hospitals, IMHO. And they are claiming the highest for rooms. And rooms are also one area where Insurance companies have very stringent limits as well.
Glad to hear you and your family pulled through saar - take care and rest well.

Yes, hospitals are doing well, no doubt. But some have room tariff information called out, though they'll find ways to pad the bills with unwanted stuff which we should be watchful for. Sad, but true, especially in insurance cases - they try to claim the entire pre-approved amount, and we as insured also don't care as long as it goes through. To add to it, insurance never covers consumables like PPE, bandages, syringes, etc., which is odd since these are not optional items. The real pinch comes when we spend out of pocket and claim later, it's a very difficult process fraught with denials.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

I saw the bill for Covid hospital stay in a reputed big hospital in Vizag for 4 days for my maternal uncle. He was covid +ve, but was getting treated and recovering OK at home but after about 10 days had a gastric flare up. Went to hospital, stayed 4 days - He was put on some sedation for the stomach pains (since he was complaining of pain) with an oxygen mask for 3 and half days until other doctors in my family intervened and got him out of there and got some scans etc elsewhere and made him take additional treatment and complete recovery at home. He recovered fully in 2 weeks after that. Not sure how long they would have kept him sedated like that if we didn't have doctors in the family.

Bill: Rs 3.5 lakhs. The bill was very detailed. Room charges, PPE kit charges (not for him but for the hospital staff), syringes, gloves, oxygen charges, monitoring charges, each time BP was checked, temp was checked, equipment charges, consulting doctors (Covid, GastroEnterologist, Pulmonologist, Anasthesiologist) charges, Covid special ward doctor charges, nursing charges, lastly room sanitation charges upon getting discharged etc etc. Oh yes, last line: Special Discount some 470 Rs rounded off to the nearest '000 ! Laugh or cry ?

Of course other doctors in my family completely avoid talking about the bill aspect.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5481
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Cyrano »

arshyam wrote:Also, since you asked me for data, let me ask you in turn - which pharmacy charged 10x/20x? Could you kindly share details and also report them to the authorities?
Thanks, Thermometer & oximeter was Apollo. And 2 other local pharmacies in north Blr. They start with no stock. Seeing your desparation, they offer to make some phone calls and if you agree they will say come back in 1 hr.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

Sachin wrote: 3. In both the hospitals (in two different states), cash less treatment was not possible. Both hospitals did every thing possible to skip that. And being in an emergency situation we also did not have a choice. Now I am sure Insurance companies will use every trick to reduce the overall claims (citing improper bills etc.) and hospitals will not provide extra documentation (as they have made their money any ways). To sum up this does look like a money making scheme for hospitals and insurance companies.
4. Average treatment cost/person was Rs 1. lakh and in my case, cost at hospital in KL side was higher. The money makers in this pandemic is hospitals, IMHO. And they are claiming the highest for rooms. And rooms are also one area where Insurance companies have very stringent limits as well.
This more or less sums up what was observed in GJ around February and onwards. At the time, costs were running 2lakhs on average. Before the wave confirmation. Now the cost is all over the place. IIRC, it was Ambarji who had mentioned about aggressive contact tracing tactics that were being utilized to get patients into hospitals. I'm sure that no court would have utilized suo moto to look into all this. Initial crucial medical capacity was already being utilized by the hospitals for patients that would be at home in today's triage. Essentially there were no reserves left when the severe patients started coming in. Given the exponential rate, the present situation would still exists but I'm sure that few lives could have been saved by not having hospitals be in profit maximization mode from January and onwards.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

When given vaccine, is there an advise being given that that this vaccine doesn't make one an immune to virus and that you can still get infected? I wonder how many start thinking that they are good to go for life and will not need to worry about the virus at all.
Tanaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4521
Joined: 21 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

Deansji,

Haffkine has a BSL3 but it’s overall state is very poor. Years of reduced funding have seen to that. Insiders allege that government never provides approval for funds to buy enough vaccine related materials hence their output is low. Some have even alleged that this is being done at the behest of a competitor.

It’s facilities are in a bad shape. To expect this to turn out huge amounts of vaccine will be a mistake at least for the near future. A year out, with proper funding there is nothing preventing it from becoming another SII: they have the skill set, the heritage and the history.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10033
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Mort Walker »

I’m hearing from family that Remdesivir injections are costing Rs. 50,000.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

Cases have stabilized and even declined but we are preparing for worst comes to the worst: Rupani
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/05/04/ ... st-rupani/
...
‘For last over one year more than 2 lakh doctors, nurses, para-medical staffers are working hard. For last five-sever days, Covid19 cases have stabled. Earlier the State would see daily increase of 2,000 cases while nowadays cases have stabled and also on decline. But we are not in even slightest over confidence. We are preparing for worst comes to the worst scenario,’ Rupani said.

He said, ‘on 15 March we were using 225 tons oxygen in the State to address medical needs, while today we are using over 1100 tons oxygen. You can imagine how much infrastructure we have increased. This utilization of oxygen has increased because we have added many more oxygen beds. We have not allowed a situation of break in oxygen supply.’

Rupani said, ‘we have also decided to set up hospitals within the industrial plants that generate hospital oxygen. First such 1,000-bed hospital has been started at ArcelorMittle Nippon Steel factory in Hazira. Reliance’s hospital is going to start today evening. Essar has started 100-bed hospital which shall be expanded to 250-bed. Dhanvantari covid hospital is functioning in Ahmedabad. Another covid hospital is planned in Gandhinagar.’

‘Our another effort is to set up oxygen concentrator plants that can directly convert air into oxygen without need of liquid oxygen supply. Such 20 plants have been made functional. We are also procuring smaller oxygen concentrator plants from China, America, Middle East, Singapore through community and volunteer efforts,’ he said.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

Mort Walker wrote:I’m hearing from family that Remdesivir injections are costing Rs. 50,000.
Unfortunate but has been true in various cases. Unless one has been keeping track from the day one on where and how to obtain it, at the moment notice the price is anyone's guess. It has almost become like taking immunity booster. One has to keep up with the information even if not infected.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

Vaccination of 45+ age group only after new stock of vaccine is arrived: AMC
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/05/03/ ... rived-amc/
Sabarmati: Amdavad Municipal Corporation (AMC) today in a note informed that covid19 vaccination of health care workers, frontline workers and those above 45-age will remain suspended on Tuesday, 4th of May 2021 across urban health centres, community health centres, municipal corporation run hospitals and community halls. Vaccination programme involving those above 45 plus age will be done after the stock of vaccines is available. Vaccination of 18-44 age group people who have registered on www.cowin.gov.in website or Arogya Setu application and are allotted slot will however continue across municipal and other listed schools.
...
Meanwhile Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) has said that on 4th and 5th May, covishield vaccination for 45 plus age group and frontline workers and health workers will remain suspended, while Covaxin vaccination will continue for them at 9 centres. For 18 – 44 age group Covishield vaccination will remain open across 53 centres for those who have been given appointment.
Tanaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4521
Joined: 21 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

Similar news from Maharashtra about vaccine availability

https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... s-7300864/

After vaccination being suspended for 4 days, it starts again but with reduced rates.
Zynda
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2309
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Zynda »

This feels like a never ending nightmare and it is very hard to isolate the area/strain due to lot of movements. I feel like we will reach a stage where indoor masking becomes mandatory...15 times more virulent...question for virologists, doctors etc. Has any virus behaved like this earlier? Becoming more & more virulent in subsequent mutations? I don't know a lot but it seemed like with subsequent mutation virus would become more benign since it would not want to kill the host & destroy itself in the process.
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2509
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

arshyam wrote:I don't know anything about Haffkine (heard about only on this thread recently), but the govt has been trying to get infra come online from earlier. Per this Print article:
“We have been looking for companies who can manufacture Covid-19 vaccines in that plant. Bharat Biotech is one of the tender applicants and we are in talks with them because they are the only ones so far that have a ready Covid-19 vaccine. Nothing is final yet,” a senior government official told ThePrint.

Sources in the health ministry say that the paperwork to get the Rs 904 crore plant up and going started in January when tender applications were invited, but given the immediate need to bolster Covid-19 vaccines supplies in India, Bharat is currently a “frontrunner”.
So the tender was issued back in January, and this is for a facility that is designed to make vaccines, where infra presumably exists. Yet, there wasn't much response, as the article indicates. BBIL till today hasn't spoken about starting production at this facility, but we have been hearing about their second plant near BLR, and more recently, IIL and Haffkine. Secondly, I think the govt was also constrained that back in January, there weren't many approved vaccines - Covishield had been approved Jan 1, and Covaxin got its conditional approval around the same time. Since SII had production capacity, GoI rightly focused on BBIL to expand capacity, but it hasn't panned out, at least at this facility.

In conclusion, yes, they could have ramped up earlier, but it's not for want of trying.
While this is factually correct (and its easy to give gyan in hindsight) what the govt could have done is what most other countries have done in a similar situation - sit with BB (where the govt has a stake, because ICMR was a joint developer of the vaccine) and tell them `you have to scale up capacity 10 fold in 3 months (or you will be nationalized). We can offer you X &Y plants, what else do you need ?' They could have done this back in Dec (or whenever indications were that phase 2 trials were looking good) and released funds. Even if Covax bombed, the plants would have been used for some other vaccine. BB on its own was not going to commit resources if there was no interest by Govt in placing advance orders.
Last edited by Deans on 04 May 2021 21:34, edited 1 time in total.
putnanja
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4665
Joined: 26 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: searching for the next al-qaida #3

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by putnanja »

Deans wrote:
Zynda wrote:^^Not a medical advise, but I think Covishield 2nd dose duration can be stretched up to 12 weeks...For Covaxin, its 4-6 weeks. My parents were told there are no Covishield stocks in BLR last week (for their 2nd dose) but they just kept on calling up vaccination centers on a daily basis, in a 1-3 Kms radius & found one diagnostic center which had AZ stocks and got theirs on last Friday.
Exactly the same experience with my parents in Bangalore. I'm over 45 and there's no vaccine stock anywhere for me.
Please let me know if you hear of any hospitals in South Bangalore that have stocks. My parents are in same situation too, they are 60+, took 1st shot of covishield, now in 8th week and looking for place to get 2nd shot. Looks like nothing is available anywhere.
g.sarkar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4382
Joined: 09 Jul 2005 12:22
Location: MERCED, California

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by g.sarkar »

darshan wrote:When given vaccine, is there an advise being given that that this vaccine doesn't make one an immune to virus and that you can still get infected? I wonder how many start thinking that they are good to go for life and will not need to worry about the virus at all.
Yes, at least here in Amreeka they are cautioning the people. In both the installments we were cautioned about the efficacy and told to continue wear the masks. We were also given a chance to ask questions.
Gautam
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2509
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

Tanaji wrote:Deansji,

Haffkine has a BSL3 but it’s overall state is very poor. Years of reduced funding have seen to that. Insiders allege that government never provides approval for funds to buy enough vaccine related materials hence their output is low. Some have even alleged that this is being done at the behest of a competitor.

It’s facilities are in a bad shape. To expect this to turn out huge amounts of vaccine will be a mistake at least for the near future. A year out, with proper funding there is nothing preventing it from becoming another SII: they have the skill set, the heritage and the history.
You are quite correct Sir. My point was that we are fighting a war and this was an opportunity to work on a war footing to get Haffkine right. If, hypothetically, the Mah govt was told in Dec that their entire vaccine stock will be supplied by Haffkine only, it would have been ready to produce in April - of course capacity would take a few months to ramp up.
The number of people above 60 who live in Urban India is around 32 million (2.5%). They account for 50% of Covid deaths.
In April & May we officially lost approx. 150000 people - 75,000 above 60 from Urban India.
If Haffkine had produced 10 million doses each in April & May (not its full capacity) and that was given as a first shot to the 60+ age group, it would have reduced deaths by approx 20,000. I know this is a simplistic view, but I'm not sure if the govt made every effort to get this done quicker.
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2509
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

putnanja wrote:
Deans wrote:
Exactly the same experience with my parents in Bangalore. I'm over 45 and there's no vaccine stock anywhere for me.
Please let me know if you hear of any hospitals in South Bangalore that have stocks. My parents are in same situation too, they are 60+, took 1st shot of covishield, now in 8th week and looking for place to get 2nd shot. Looks like nothing is available anywhere.
You can only know if you call the hospital early in the morning. My info is that private hospitals no longer have stock - they had to return it to BBMP and are awaiting stocks against their purchase orders placed with SII and BB. Govt hospitals will have stock in the morning, against which tokens are issued. If you are a serving or ex serviceman, Command Hospital has stock.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

Deans wrote: While this is factually correct (and its easy to give gyan in hindsight) what the govt could have done is what most other countries have done in a similar situation - sit with BB (where the govt has a stake, because ICMR was a joint developer of the vaccine) and tell them `you have to scale up capacity 10 fold in 3 months (or you will be nationalized). We can offer you X &Y plants, what else do you need ?' If they did this back in Dec (or whenever indications were that phase 2 trials were looking good) govt could have released resources. Even if Covax bombed, the plants would have been used for some other vaccine. BB on its own was not going to commit resources if there was no interest by Govt in placing advance orders.
+1. I hold the similar viewpoints and that's why I was not happy when I looked at GJ budget and no real incentives to bring in vaccine makers. Especially when it's going to be a big business for next few years and supplies need to be secured.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

Hopefully GoI and GJ govt are going to reward many such entities that have stepped up in this time. From cutting off the red tape to curtailing foreign competition.
UPL helps four hospitals achieve self-sufficiency in oxygen by delivering onsite Oxygen Plants
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/05/02/ ... en-plants/
UPL Ltd., India’s leading crop-protection Company has aligned its resources to produce Oxygen for COVID treatment. This decision by UPL was taken to meet the nationwide shortage caused by the surge in COVID cases. The company has converted four of its nitrogen production plants at Gujarat to produce and deliver oxygen to four hospitals in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. These plants have been skid mounted and delivered directly to the hospital sites for them to be plugged into the hospital’s oxygen eco-system to help attain self-sufficiency in supply. This innovation by UPL caters to 200-250 beds at each of these hospitals including ICU patients.
...
It can supply oxygen to 20 ventilator beds for round the clock. The plant can refill 35-40 oxygen bottles daily. It procues 94 percent pure oxygen. It has been erected in onl 3 days by UPL.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

8 Asiatic lions test positive for Coronavirus infection in Hyderabad, develop dry cough, nasal discharge
https://www.opindia.com/2021/05/asiatic ... hyderabad/
...
The zoo caretakers then alerted the veterinary team, who took swab samples of the animals and sent them for testing at the CCMB. The scientists will now undertake genome sequencing of the virus strain to detect whether it was transferred from human beings. The zoo authorities will also conduct a CT scan of the infected animals to determine the magnitude of the infection in their lungs.
....
Earlier, more than 12 staff members at the zoo had tested positive. After the case came to light, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) issued an advisory on April 30 to shut down all national parks, zoos, sanctuaries.
....
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

I know that many joints in GJ before the wave were getting people signed up for CT scan without informing them about pros and cons. All for profits. So much that needs to be cleaned up.
1 CT Scan Equivalent To 300 Chest X-Rays: AIIMS Chief Dr Randeep Guleria Advises Patients With Mild Covid-19 Against It
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/1-ct-scan ... against-it
AIIMS chief Dr Randeep Guleria has cautioned patients with mild Covid-19 symptoms against going for a CT scan as he said that it could end up doing more harm than good in the longer run.
vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3986
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vera_k »

Both Covishield and Covaxin are based on older tech where the ingredients have to be grown over many months. I will take SII and BB on their word that it's not quick to scale up production at the drop of a hat. mRNA based vaccines are faster to produce, however this tech is not yet used in India.

IMO the goof up was and perhaps still is in Centre-State-District-Judiciary coordination on when to lockdown and when to open up. Until enough people are vaccinated, which in itself can take a year or more, lockdown calibration is the only way to control the spread of the virus. Even after the first round of vaccinations is completed, it is unknown as to how long the vaccine will protect people, so being able to make progress while identifying ad controlling local flare ups will be a key skill.
Tanaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4521
Joined: 21 Jun 2000 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Tanaji »

vera_k wrote:Both Covishield and Covaxin are based on older tech where the ingredients have to be grown over many months. I will take SII and BB on their word that it's not quick to scale up production at the drop of a hat. mRNA based vaccines are faster to produce, however this tech is not yet used in India.
It does not matter if it is old as long as the efficacy is there. The issue with mRNA for the Indian environment is the cold storage chain that is required. That has to be set up from scratch.

Neither Pfizer nor Moderna have done any bridging studies to date to prove their efficacy against Indian variants.
Jarita
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2649
Joined: 30 Oct 2009 22:27
Location: Andromeda

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Jarita »

Talking about bridge trials, this might be an outlier but we need to investigate the efficacy of the RNA vaccines against the newer variants. The old tech will provide atleast some measure of protection.

Image
Image
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

If Google is correct, Dr. Kapila's age was around 83. No information on other existing illnesses.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8785
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

We need a group that looks after strategy of COVID 3 to 6 months down the line.

The group focusses on what is coming in pipeline e.g. nasal vaccine or treatments. How to expedite this? What is the reliability and scaling up process?
How do we deliver it in mass scale?

For example, nasal vaccines may be approved in 3 months. Lets look at how to deliver this effectively? Can we make deliver in in railway/bus stations or even apartment buildings? One group is fighting current crisis and another one 3-6 months.
Uttam
BRFite
Posts: 577
Joined: 15 Apr 2003 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

Dr. Kapila's case is just one data point and it doesn't prove much. Vaccine breakthroughs happen for a lot of reasons including new variants. They happen for existing variants as well.

Here are more details:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/h ... cases.html

Image
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3866
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Latest PIB Release of the Ministry of Health:

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1716043
COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 109

India scales several peaks in its Vaccination Drive

India crosses a Landmark Milestone with more than 16 Cr doses administered

More than 13 Cr Vaccine doses administered as First Dose

Over 3 Cr Vaccine doses administered as Second Dose

More than 2.29 lakh beneficiaries of age group 18-44 Vaccinated in the last 24 hours

Nearly 11.5 lakh vaccine doses administered in the last 24 hours
Statewise numbers on 18-44 vaccinations in the release.
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3866
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Anyone hear of any private hospitals offering vaccines yet? If so, which hospital, which vaccine, and what total charge for one dose?
Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9265
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Have not following this thread (or brf) for a while. Allow me to share some updates wrt to "super model" ( Lead by team of Prof Vidyasagar, Prof Agrawal and consisting of experts in epidemiology, virology, and medicine). The model is now called the famous SUTRA (Susceptible, Untested, Tested, Recovered (or removed) Approach). I do like the name.

I posted long ago (last year - September/October time frame - Check out earlier posts) the model and future prediction. The model projected values were in quite a good agreement (relatively speaking) with actual data till end (or middle) of February around the time transmissivity (beta) of some variants (eg UK B117, and other VoC's) changed parameters. Since India did not have good data/testing /sequencing for variants, it wasn't till middle of March we started worrying about the "second wave"..Were not sure how bad that will be but we knew about the timing (Mid May) and the knowledge that it will be quite bad.. some leaders listened to Scientists some did not (or listened as much as they should)..

Anyway First graph is SUTRA's projection from beginning of this pandemic for India. The second is zoomed in recent version. (Hot off the press, with the most current parameters).

We (our scientists) have shared and have been sharing this with all stake-holders..May be there may be a better central place to share this with aam junta. For the last month, many of us have been sharing this graphs (State level and even city level - so that one can project local peak etc).

For India:
Image
(This was produced around beginning of April - It is 7 day's average (daily peak can vary by significant amount).. Plotting of graph was done for "active case" (much easy to verify with actual data) so that we can see how accurate these models and their parameters have been. (Point to note: "active" lags about 10 days from "new" infactions)

Here is zoomed in Version: (plotting "new infections"
Image
We are at the peak right now (India in General - different states have peaked at slightly different time etc)
The values are 7 day averages .. (About 390,000 - but actual daily value can go more than 400,000)..
Again Timing of the peak (5-11 May - derived months ago) is much more reliable than the height (as smallest intervention can change the results in drastic ways.

Please stay safe!
(SINGLE MOST Important factor right now is use a good mask (preferably N95), wear it properly, and avoid big crowds)
saip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4231
Joined: 17 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

darshan wrote:If Google is correct, Dr. Kapila's age was around 83. No information on other existing illnesses.
He was diabetic and cardiac patient.
If he was 83, how old would his father - in - law be?
Link
Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 1987
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

darshan wrote:When given vaccine, is there an advise being given that that this vaccine doesn't make one an immune to virus and that you can still get infected? I wonder how many start thinking that they are good to go for life and will not need to worry about the virus at all.
Don’t think so. I had to constantly drive home this point with my parents. Also had to tell them to wait for 2 weeks after second shot for it to be effective. I know many relatives who are taking it easy after the first shot itself.

I have learnt that convincing family is the hardest thing to do.
Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 1987
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Atmavik »

Amber G. wrote:Have not following this thread (or brf) for a while. Allow me to share some updates wrt to "super model"

Please stay safe!
(SINGLE MOST Important factor right now is use a good mask (preferably N95), wear it properly, and avoid big crowds)
Glad to see you here. Hope all is well in these difficult times. You were certainly missed
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3866
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Air India to vaccinate employees by May-end
Air India today said that they plan to vaccinate all its employees by the end of this month.

The confirmation came on a day, when Indian Commercial Pilots’ Association (ICPA) wrote a letter to the airline threatening not to operate flights till the government airline vaccinated them.

An airline official denied it and said that the process was anyway on after the government allowed companies to vaccinate its employees.

“The process had already started after the government opened vaccination for all… The announcement may have been made today due to the letter being made public,” a source in the know said.

ICPA, a pilots’ union of erstwhile Indian Airlines pilots, wrote to the airline saying that they will not be able to operate flights until the vaccination starts.

Among Indian airlines, IndiGo has said they will get their employees vaccinated. While the union government did not categorise airline staff, as frontline staff despite repeated request by the industry, the aviation ministry has asked states to treat aviation workers as priority segment for Covid jabs.
Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3866
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Kakkaji »

Assam to get 1.5 lakh COVID-19 vaccines, to start symbolic inoculation from Wednesday
Assam finance minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma said Assam will get 1.5 lakh COVID-19 vaccines and the state will symbolically start inoculation for 18 years and 44 years’ category from Wednesdays onwards .
Anujan
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7807
Joined: 27 May 2007 03:55

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Anujan »

Tanaji wrote:
vera_k wrote:Both Covishield and Covaxin are based on older tech where the ingredients have to be grown over many months. I will take SII and BB on their word that it's not quick to scale up production at the drop of a hat. mRNA based vaccines are faster to produce, however this tech is not yet used in India.
It does not matter if it is old as long as the efficacy is there. The issue with mRNA for the Indian environment is the cold storage chain that is required. That has to be set up from scratch.

Neither Pfizer nor Moderna have done any bridging studies to date to prove their efficacy against Indian variants.
Moderna has demonstrated that it's vaccine is refrigerator storable for up to six months.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/moderna ... onths.html
Moderna said it now has data that could support a three-month refrigerated shelf life for its vaccine.
The mRNA vaccine is approved to be stored in the refrigerator between 36 and 46 degrees Fahrenheit for up to 30 days and up to seven months at minus 4 Fahrenheit.
We should get one of our vaccine manufacturer to partner with Moderna. The advantage with mrna vaccine is that it is easy to produce a cocktail of mRNA to target different variants.

The advantage over killed vaccine tech (covaxin) is that there is no danger of exposure to live viruses during manufacturing. This is how Pfizer vaccine is made.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ccine.html
Sumeet
BRFite
Posts: 1616
Joined: 22 May 2002 11:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sumeet »

LakshmanPST wrote:
Sumeet wrote:Suraj and others do you guys have any information about whether this article is correct on facts or not:

Scientists say Modi government ignored warnings amid coronavirus surge
This is the pib press release of March 17th meetong of PM and CMs...
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1705457

Note this excerpt--->
"He urged to stop this emerging "second peak" of Corona immediately and warned that if we do not stop this growing pandemic now, then a country-wide outbreak can occur.

For stopping this emerging "second peak" of Corona, the Prime Minister stressed the need to take quick and decisive steps. Noting that the seriousness of the local Administration about the use of masks is going down, the PM called for immediate addressing of the governance problems at the regional level. He warned that the confidence which came from our achievements in the battle against Corona should not turn into negligence. He further stressed that the public should not be brought to panic mode and at the same time also get rid of trouble. He stressed the need to strategize by incorporating our past experiences, in our efforts."


So, I wouldn't say Govt. was sleeping over 2nd wave warnings... Clearly Modi himself acknowledged this in mid-March itself and asked states to take all the steps needed...
----
My guess is, both Centre and States were prepared for the 2nd wave... They didn't want create panic as that would have lead to panic in publibe like migrant crisis...
Based on the handling of 1st wave, where 'unlocking' happened during 1st wave peak, they probably thought they could handle it without lockdown and stuff...

But they probably underestimated the rate of spread of this variant... All their models went for a toss when the virus was practically dormant until end March and skyrocketed in 2nd week of April in many states...

Point to note is, even in this March 17th meeting and subsequent meetings, none of the states flagged the requirement of Oxygen... In 2nd week of April, all of a sudden they raised SoS for Oxygen...

Many ppl are blaming Modi for shortage of Oxygen... I personally wouldn't blame him, or the States either for that matter...
Everyone simply underestimated the rate of spread of this variant...
Centre actually did a commendable job in arranging Oxygen on such a short notice...
BRF folks please read this press release and most definitely watch the youtube video (both from Lakshman's article above):
Press Release March 17th 2021: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1705457

Associated Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aK79AxBzGas&t=1055s

Thanks for pointing this out. I saw the video Man this thread goes so fast I missed (this gem of information). This is awesome.

Suraj you have bigger reach please include this data point in your articles. I will be circulating this in my circles. You are correct we knew something was going to happen but had no specific estimate as to what will be actual number of cases.

Few questions do come to my mind:

With this knowledge on March 17th why Kumbh mela wasn't given a go ahead ?
Why farmer protests were still kept alive ?
Why EC didn't postpone elections ?
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Anujan wrote:We should get one of our vaccine manufacturer to partner with Moderna. The advantage with mrna vaccine is that it is easy to produce a cocktail of mRNA to target different variants.

The advantage over killed vaccine tech (covaxin) is that there is no danger of exposure to live viruses during manufacturing. This is how Pfizer vaccine is made.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ccine.html
The disadvantage is that it is a lot more expensive than any currently available option in India. The TRIPS waiver demand failed 3 times now and a fourth attempt seems doomed to failure again. Moderna goes for more per dose than Pfizer does, though US prices are lower than elsewhere because US Govt funded a lot of basic research that went into it.
Recent study on vaccines and prices

Scaling up mRNA from a position of having no existing facilities or supply chain supporting its constituents makes for the 'US denied raw material' redux. mRNA vaccines are delivered through lipid nanoparticles and this has been hit by production and scaling issues, plus a web of public and private IP; Moderna supposedly uses NIH developed spike protein IP without paying royalties, but presumably the US Govt is simply looking the other way... for now. In short, a stable mRNA production line will take at minimum several months to accomplish.

Biosafety Level 3 facilities are not a 'disadvantage' as such. They're fairly standard for making inactivated viral vaccines (like Covaxin) and have been around for a long time. They take a while to crank up in volume, but as Covaxin has shown, it is a very robust vaccine and has shown efficacy against every variant it's been tested against. It can also be stored at 2-8 degrees fridge temps, and can be used on immunocompromised people in a way some other vaccines (e.g. attenuated) and potentially even some mRNA vaccines can't.
darshan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4018
Joined: 28 Jan 2008 04:16

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by darshan »

To add to data points, action around March 17th.

GJ govt had just woken up after ignoring various signs preceding before this date. To be fair, there was nothing going on during few weeks before this that said oxygen. Beds were getting filled up and mostly non severe cases. There certainly was a step response as far as oxygen requirements due to various strains. GoI must have realized something at a pan India level that was not obvious at a local level. In hindsight, any state dealing with MH and Delhi should have been super caution mode.
Sudden and blanket suspension of AMTS, BRTS buses cause inconvenience to many

https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/03/18/ ... e-to-many/
.... with effect from 18th March, 2021....
Post Reply