Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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arshyam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

I think that's what is happening here. Vaccine imports and policy has been liberalised for more than a month now, yet a single Pfizer dose hasn't been imported. It might very well end up staying that way.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pgbhat »

rsingh wrote:^^^^
why not just pass time with chai-biscut negotiations and wait out . Our production capacity will increase onlee. And then one fine day kick them out.
Yeah. This will most likely what will happen. Also Government can create an ad-hoc inter-party committee to study the "requirements" of Pfizer vaccine and then come up with recommendations which can be debated in Larger parliamentary setup and also get inputs from various States since health is a state subject. This will be proper setup for babu-dom to flourish and extract whatever they want.

The center needs to get this Pfizer monkey off its back.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sachin »

pgbhat wrote:Yeah. This will most likely what will happen. Also Government can create an ad-hoc inter-party committee to study the "requirements" of Pfizer vaccine and then come up with recommendations
The regular demand of the opposition 'secular' parties is that of Joint Parliamentary Committees. Pfizer's case can be the best one to be handed over to such committee. And that can also expose Pfizer 'Bhakts' within the political parties as well.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sachin »

putnanja
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by putnanja »

If the govt had announced this much earlier , the 75/25 split, it would have prevented unnecessary debates . Now it makes it look like they crumbled under combined opposition and SC. Wholly unnecessary exercise. Could have done this earlier, instead provided unnecessary ammunition to opposition.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sachin »

putnanja wrote:Could have done this earlier, instead provided unnecessary ammunition to opposition.
Yes. BJP & Modi is not going to get any credit for this. They will be shown as defeated. And I expect more dramas from the states as now they have tasted blood. They can still scuttle the vaccination drive and continue to blame central government. The best thing to counter is to have daily press meets in which the health minister & top officials clearly give a 'progress report'. How much vaccines procured, and how much vaccines have been distributed to the states (if possible also update the same on easily accessible web site). If it is practically possible, state wise count of vaccinations, recoveries, deaths and postivity rate etc has to be tabulated and shown during this press meet. Other wise the opposition parties and the main stream media will still spin new stories.
RajeevK
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by RajeevK »

putnanja wrote:
If the govt had announced this much earlier , the 75/25 split, it would have prevented unnecessary debates . Now it makes it look like they crumbled under combined opposition and SC. Wholly unnecessary exercise. Could have done this earlier, instead provided unnecessary ammunition to opposition.
Whatever Modi does, the media and the opposition will find faults anyway.
The problem is the availability of vaccines. You can't buy them today and have them delivered next day. Earlier the states demanded that they be allowed to order and administer vaccinations, centre agreed to that. But then the states would have realised that vaccines are not available so they started asking central government to order vaccines centrally.
putnanja
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by putnanja »

The policy was flawed. Plus the fact that the price for state govt supplies was double the central govt one was even bigger blunder and made horrible optics. The govt had already announced Rs 35k reserved for vaccines. That was a masterstroke, which was rendered impotent when they announced dual-pricing for vaccines for state govts. They should have just done what they did now at that time, 75/25 split for govt/pvt players. Many companies were asking for permissions to vaccinate their staff and dependents. Could have allowed them the 25% pvt route. Many BJP supporters too had asked for central procurement of vaccines. Don't know which genius came up with dual-pricing policy!

Now, depending on the media, they are saying the govt buckled under SC pressure. And given that majority of media is anti-BJP, that is the narrative that is going to stick. Some BJP handles are saying govt allowed state govts to prove their incompetence. How many will buy it, given that this change of heart happened after SC hearing? In the first hearing itself, the bench had made some observations on equality etc. Govt should have at least reacted at that time. Now it just reinforces message that SC came to the rescue and forced unwilling govt to change policy.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sachin »

putnanja wrote:Now, depending on the media, they are saying the govt buckled under SC pressure.
There is no media which is pro-BJP. This is again a blow to Modi (and is actually one). Now Central Govt. will have to take up more burden, and expect to get more sermons from hizzoners and then more shady tactics will be adopted by state governments.
Some BJP handles are saying govt allowed state govts to prove their incompetence.
None will buy it. COVID is more like a national pandemic, and the onus will be on central government. The fact that many of the states have empty treasuries will be neatly ignored. States like KL, which uses is treasury to breed kitten etc will now once again escape from responsibilities and accountabilities.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

putnanja wrote:The policy was flawed. Plus the fact that the price for state govt supplies was double the central govt one was even bigger blunder and made horrible optics. The govt had already announced Rs 35k reserved for vaccines. That was a masterstroke, which was rendered impotent when they announced dual-pricing for vaccines for state govts. They should have just done what they did now at that time, 75/25 split for govt/pvt players. Many companies were asking for permissions to vaccinate their staff and dependents. Could have allowed them the 25% pvt route. Many BJP supporters too had asked for central procurement of vaccines. Don't know which genius came up with dual-pricing policy!

Now, depending on the media, they are saying the govt buckled under SC pressure. And given that majority of media is anti-BJP, that is the narrative that is going to stick. Some BJP handles are saying govt allowed state govts to prove their incompetence. How many will buy it, given that this change of heart happened after SC hearing? In the first hearing itself, the bench had made some observations on equality etc. Govt should have at least reacted at that time. Now it just reinforces message that SC came to the rescue and forced unwilling govt to change policy.
there are many ministers who could/should have reacted but seem to have purposely held back for whatever reasons or is it simply the long term effects or withdrawl symptoms of not having access to the previously long accustomed steady doses of vitamin M

is there a rebellion of sorts brewing or what

something does not sit right with this slow hara kiri by radio silence
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by ritesh »

Why are people so very pessimistic?? Hasnt Modi shown opposition the mirror and expose their double standard and incompetence?
RajeevK
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by RajeevK »

chetak wrote: --
In the first hearing itself, the bench had made some observations on equality etc. Govt should have at least reacted at that time. Now it just reinforces message that SC came to the rescue and forced unwilling govt to change policy.
Equality is again subjective and you can twist it the way you want to. Then why not implement another court's observation that the young should be given preference over old?
Delhi High Court question’s Centre’s vaccination policy
The Delhi High Court on Tuesday questioned the Centre’s vaccination policy for not prioritising the younger population over older people, saying “it is the younger people who are the future of this country”.
I feel price cap is wrong. Since the centre ordered first and took the risk, they got vaccines at a competitive price. Later orders should have been charged more, even if nominally.
putnanja
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by putnanja »

ritesh wrote:Why are people so very pessimistic?? Hasnt Modi shown opposition the mirror and expose their double standard and incompetence?
It depends on how people view it.

Its good the govt did course correction. The only question is, was all this hoopla required? This was easily an avoidable controversy. This too shall pass. What were the party leaders doing? I am surprised no one gave ground feedback to do course correction earlier.

Easiest was to announce this right after states poll results, taking some edge off the result. Hoping govt/party will be more careful and manage optics much better going forward.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Sachin »

chetak wrote:there are many ministers who could/should have reacted but seem to have purposely held back for whatever reasons or is it simply the long term effects or withdrawl symptoms of not having access to the previously long accustomed steady doses of vitamin M
One question I always had in mind was, that there is this Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, with three ministers running it. Dr. Harsh Vardhan (Minister), Ashwini Kumar Choubey (Minister) and Faggan Singh Kulaste (Minister of State). What have been their contributions especially in media management? It has always been Modi, and this seems to be now backfiring. At least the ministers concerned with the health department should have been more active.
ritesh wrote:Hasnt Modi shown opposition the mirror and expose their double standard and incompetence?
To be frank, I am now getting a bit pessimistic. Management of the COVID's 2nd wave was really not up to the mark. If Modi & Shah only wants to focus on elections, then they need to have a strong & reliable team to run the actual government in the background. The vaccine procurement schemes too seems to be becoming unexplainable. Incompetence of states can be shown when the problems are regional, but COVID being a national issue expectations would always be higher on the central government. It was becoming a Modi & Shah show, but the problem is that they will also have to take all the blame as well. My only hope is that organisations like RSS actually step in and then cobble up some good fool proof plans.
chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by chetak »

RajeevK wrote:
The Delhi High Court on Tuesday questioned the Centre’s vaccination policy for not prioritising the younger population over older people, saying “it is the younger people who are the future of this country”.
And condemn the older ones to die

anyone in authority who dares to suggest such a policy should be tried by a fast track court, and hanged before lunch on the same day.

The Indian constitution guarantees the right to life, period.

No one anywhere, no matter who, can take the right away unless all due process under the law has been followed and a conviction got legally like in a murder or riot case whatever

The only priority anyone should get is if one gets up early in the morning and lines up first at the vaccination center to take the jab
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vimal »

This thread is less pandemic more politics, not surprising though.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

Sachin wrote: One question I always had in mind was, that there is this , with three ministers running it. Dr. Harsh Vardhan (Minister), Ashwini Kumar Choubey (Minister) and Faggan Singh Kulaste (Minister of State). What have been their contributions especially in media management? It has always been Modi, and this seems to be now backfiring. At least the ministers concerned with the health department should have been more active.
ritesh wrote:Hasnt Modi shown opposition the mirror and expose their double standard and incompetence?
To be frank, I am now getting a bit pessimistic. Management of the COVID's 2nd wave was really not up to the mark. If Modi & Shah only wants to focus on elections, then they need to have a strong & reliable team to run the actual government in the background. The vaccine procurement schemes too seems to be becoming unexplainable.
I think the problem is with PMO trying to run everything and not giving his ministers a chance to be visible. I've spoken to insiders about this. The sense I have is that even where a ministry is involved, the bureaucrats in that ministry report to the PMO, rather than go through the minister.
It may have worked when Gujarat was run from the CMs office, but not when administering India.

I believe the govt has made several inexcusable mistakes in handling Covid since last year's lockdown. I say this as a Govt supporter, who believes that there is no Oppn led State govt who has done a better job. One of these mistakes is its vaccine policy.
All the problems with vaccine stem from the fact that last Dec (when phase 3 trials for Covshield and Covax looked promising) we should have pre ordered 300 million doses (as per Govt policy that was needed for the most vulnerable, even if there wasn't a severe wave 2). Instead we ordered 110 million, of which just 10 million were from BB. What incentive did BB have to seek out more capacity ?
More upfront cash and a greater sense of urgency would have resulted in a capacity increase for AZ & BB starting in May instead of (best case) in July. I believe we could have completed 300 million doses by end April (which was the Govt's objective) and had capacity of 100 million a month from 1st May. We would then have been at 420 million doses by today, instead of 240.
Allowing for a less than ideal rollout and wastages, we should still have been at 380 million doses instead of 240. The incremental 140 million
doses would have saved 60,000 lives.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Deans wrote:
I believe the govt has made several inexcusable mistakes in handling Covid since last year's lockdown. I say this as a Govt supporter, who believes that there is no Oppn led State govt who has done a better job. One of these mistakes is its vaccine policy.
All the problems with vaccine stem from the fact that last Dec (when phase 3 trials for Covshield and Covax looked promising) we should have pre ordered 300 million doses (as per Govt policy that was needed for the most vulnerable, even if there wasn't a severe wave 2). Instead we ordered 110 million, of which just 10 million were from BB. What incentive did BB have to seek out more capacity ?
.
We all recognize this. But here is the dilemma.

Already scums of BIF are trying to imply GOvt. is giving all the money to SII/BB and now Biological E. If you go to Jan/Feb, most BIF was implying that we should not waste money on vaccine since Indians are somehow immune to it.

What if the second wave did not happen? Same media, opposition/pappu will be shouting corruption of 38000 crores to corporate friends and we all will be defending.

Remember! Every one was so reluctant to get vaccinated till first or second week of April

That's why they say hindsight is 20/20.
Last edited by vijayk on 07 Jun 2021 23:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Deans wrote:
Sachin wrote: ...I've spoken to insiders about this. The sense I have is that even where a ministry is involved, the bureaucrats in that ministry report to the PMO, rather than go through the minister.
I work directly with the CEO, bypassing several layers of management! Does good to my resume. Also excellent bragging points.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Uttam »

COVID-19 Vaccination Update- Day 143
Cumulative Vaccine Coverage exceeds 23.59 Crore
More than 31 lakh Vaccine Doses administered today till 7 pm
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Deans wrote:All the problems with vaccine stem from the fact that last Dec (when phase 3 trials for Covshield and Covax looked promising) we should have pre ordered 300 million doses (as per Govt policy that was needed for the most vulnerable, even if there wasn't a severe wave 2). Instead we ordered 110 million, of which just 10 million were from BB. What incentive did BB have to seek out more capacity ?
More upfront cash and a greater sense of urgency would have resulted in a capacity increase for AZ & BB starting in May instead of (best case) in July. I believe we could have completed 300 million doses by end April (which was the Govt's objective) and had capacity of 100 million a month from 1st May. We would then have been at 420 million doses by today, instead of 240.
Allowing for a less than ideal rollout and wastages, we should still have been at 380 million doses instead of 240. The incremental 140 million
doses would have saved 60,000 lives.
This is a horribly flawed picture and a great example of how the politics are clouding a view of reality. First, understand ALL the data, then make a conclusion. Here are the datapoints:

* It is not possible to define whether a vaccine candidate will be productizable while it is in early (Ph 1/2) trials. This is because in that phase they try to establish whether that specific formulation even registers an immune response. I have the dates of Phase 1/2 for several major vaccines:

Code: Select all

Vaccine          CodeName       Ph 1/2       Ph 2/3 
Pfizer-BioNTech	BNT162b1 	  8/12/2020	 12/10/2020
Moderna	        mRNA-1273 	 7/14/2020 	12/31/2020
Covishield	     AZD1222	    7/20/2020	 11/18/2020
Covaxin	        BBV152	     12/10/2020	03/11/2021
Janssen/J&J	    Ad26.COV2.S	9/25/2020	 01/22/2021
Sinovac	        -	          12/15/2020	02/05/2021
With every vaccine, one can expect plans to begin manufacturing to start around the end of Phase 1/2 at the earliest. Before that there's no candidate to produce.

Once there's a candidates, it takes several months to achieve scale, due to the need to achieve yield at scale. Pfizer for example was took 3 months to produce its first 100m doses (achieved second half of March), even though they did Ph2 in August 2020, and were the first western candidate to get Ph3 in Dec.

Covaxin reached Ph1/2 in early December. And yet weeks before that, the PM personally met the vaccine companies in November: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1676468
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1676808
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1677012
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1677120
PSUs IIL and BIBCOL each received Rs.75 crore to build new BSL-3 facilities to produce Covaxin, once it was near the end of Phase 1/2 trials - even before it started Phase 3 trials in December. It takes ~6-9 months to build a BSL-3 facility. In addition, Bharat Biotech itself received Rs.65 crore to build its new Bangalore plant.

Those who don't follow the news are not aware that all of these companies - even those whose candidates are yet to get past Phase 3 (Zydus, Gennova, Biological E...) have been handheld by the government since last summer.

The claim 'oh they didn't start sooner because there's no order' is not backed by facts. These companies have been interacting with PMO on Zoom for the better part of a year now. Both sides know where each party is, so far every single time a domestic candidate is near readiness, the government has gone out of the way to make things easier for its use:
1. Covaxin got a restricted clinical trial mode use authorization in Jan, while midway through its Phase 3 . This was heavily criticized, but nevertheless a masterstroke in enabling its production to start quickly. News from Jan 5: Covaxin stockpile at 20 m, set to scale up: Krishna Ella
2. Biological-E recently announced estimates on completing Ph3 in July and seeks to start 7cr/month production beginning August. Center responded by ordering 30 cr doses from them.

Covaxin has a particular production issue with needing a BSL-3 line, and the government invested in a total of 5 such lines so far (2 at BB, IIL, BIBCOL and Haffkine) between Nov 2020 and April 2021.

Two Indian candidates, both getting preferential advance treatment. All of them in constant contact with PMO over Zoom and in person for the better part of a year, expediting clearance of what they needed for development and production. This is Adar Poonawalla from May 2020 thanking Govt for helping with efforts to clear imports of machinery for the Covishield production deal he signed soon after with AZ.
Deans wrote:I believe we could have completed 300 million doses by end April (which was the Govt's objective)
Which is not true: India Aims to Inoculate 300 Million by July. Currently at 236 million, India will be past 300m end June, well beyond 400m end July.

The entire world combined had not vaccinated 400 million at the start of April. That's a fact - feel free to check on ourworldindata. Combined global vaccinations on March 31 was 343 million. Indian production accounted for one third of that.

Nobody has been able to scale up production in the manner you imagine - even those with candidates 2-4 months ahead in terms of Ph1/2 clearance. That is the response to the claim 'could have scaled up sooner'. No, everyone has taken several months to achieve process scaling.

Many of these arguments move up the timeline so far back claiming 'should have started / ordered earlier' that they overshoot an actual vaccine to produce. Novavax and GSK/Sanofi have over a billion doses in combined orders across EU/US/UK and a combined total of 0 delivered so far, with the earliest likelihood being late summer. By then both Covaxin and Biological-E would have achieved >50m dose/month production rate.

That's the problem with these arguments - without understanding chronology and waypoints to date, the arguments demand production of something to begin at a past point before anything exists to produce.
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

Day 141: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1724809
Day 143: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1725138

23,59,39,165 - 23,10,89,241 = 48,49,924

4.85 million on Sunday+Monday. According to MOHFW, Sunday data was 1.39 million, which means Monday June 7 is 3.46 million .
vijayk
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Suraj wrote:
Deans wrote:All the problems with vaccine stem from the fact that last Dec (when phase 3 trials for Covshield and Covax looked promising) we should have pre ordered 300 million doses (as per Govt policy that was needed for the most vulnerable, even if there wasn't a severe wave 2). Instead we ordered 110 million, of which just 10 million were from BB. What incentive did BB have to seek out more capacity ?
More upfront cash and a greater sense of urgency would have resulted in a capacity increase for AZ & BB starting in May instead of (best case) in July. I believe we could have completed 300 million doses by end April (which was the Govt's objective) and had capacity of 100 million a month from 1st May. We would then have been at 420 million doses by today, instead of 240.
Allowing for a less than ideal rollout and wastages, we should still have been at 380 million doses instead of 240. The incremental 140 million
doses would have saved 60,000 lives.
This is a horribly flawed picture and a great example of how the politics are clouding a view of reality. First, understand ALL the data, then make a conclusion. Here are the datapoints:

* It is not possible to define whether a vaccine candidate will be productizable while it is in early (Ph 1/2) trials. This is because in that phase they try to establish whether that specific formulation even registers an immune response. I have the dates of Phase 1/2 for several major vaccines:

Code: Select all

Vaccine          CodeName       Ph 1/2       Ph 2/3 
Pfizer-BioNTech	BNT162b1 	  8/12/2020	 12/10/2020
Moderna	        mRNA-1273 	 7/14/2020 	12/31/2020
Covishield	     AZD1222	    7/20/2020	 11/18/2020
Covaxin	        BBV152	     12/10/2020	03/11/2021
Janssen/J&J	    Ad26.COV2.S	9/25/2020	 01/22/2021
Sinovac	        -	          12/15/2020	02/05/2021
With every vaccine, one can expect plans to begin manufacturing to start around the end of Phase 1/2 at the earliest. Before that there's no candidate to produce.

Once there's a candidates, it takes several months to achieve scale, due to the need to achieve yield at scale. Pfizer for example was took 3 months to produce its first 100m doses (achieved second half of March), even though they did Ph2 in August 2020, and were the first western candidate to get Ph3 in Dec.

Covaxin reached Ph1/2 in early December. And yet weeks before that, the PM personally met the vaccine companies in November: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1676468
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1676808
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1677012
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1677120
PSUs IIL and BIBCOL each received Rs.75 crore to build new BSL-3 facilities to produce Covaxin, once it was near the end of Phase 1/2 trials - even before it started Phase 3 trials in December. It takes ~6-9 months to build a BSL-3 facility. In addition, Bharat Biotech itself received Rs.65 crore to build its new Bangalore plant.

Those who don't follow the news are not aware that all of these companies - even those whose candidates are yet to get past Phase 3 (Zydus, Gennova, Biological E...) have been handheld by the government since last summer.

The claim 'oh they didn't start sooner because there's no order' is not backed by facts. These companies have been interacting with PMO on Zoom for the better part of a year now. Both sides know where each party is, so far every single time a domestic candidate is near readiness, the government has gone out of the way to make things easier for its use:
1. Covaxin got a restricted clinical trial mode use authorization in Jan, while midway through its Phase 3 . This was heavily criticized, but nevertheless a masterstroke in enabling its production to start quickly. News from Jan 5: Covaxin stockpile at 20 m, set to scale up: Krishna Ella
2. Biological-E recently announced estimates on completing Ph3 in July and seeks to start 7cr/month production beginning August. Center responded by ordering 30 cr doses from them.

Covaxin has a particular production issue with needing a BSL-3 line, and the government invested in a total of 5 such lines so far (2 at BB, IIL, BIBCOL and Haffkine) between Nov 2020 and April 2021.

Two Indian candidates, both getting preferential advance treatment. All of them in constant contact with PMO over Zoom and in person for the better part of a year, expediting clearance of what they needed for development and production. This is Adar Poonawalla from May 2020 thanking Govt for helping with efforts to clear imports of machinery for the Covishield production deal he signed soon after with AZ.
Deans wrote:I believe we could have completed 300 million doses by end April (which was the Govt's objective)
Which is not true: India Aims to Inoculate 300 Million by July. Currently at 236 million, India will be past 300m end June, well beyond 400m end July.

The entire world combined had not vaccinated 400 million at the start of April. That's a fact - feel free to check on ourworldindata. Combined global vaccinations on March 31 was 343 million. Indian production accounted for one third of that.

Nobody has been able to scale up production in the manner you imagine - even those with candidates 2-4 months ahead in terms of Ph1/2 clearance. That is the response to the claim 'could have scaled up sooner'. No, everyone has taken several months to achieve process scaling.

Many of these arguments move up the timeline so far back claiming 'should have started / ordered earlier' that they overshoot an actual vaccine to produce. Novavax and GSK/Sanofi have over a billion doses in combined orders across EU/US/UK and a combined total of 0 delivered so far, with the earliest likelihood being late summer. By then both Covaxin and Biological-E would have achieved >50m dose/month production rate.

That's the problem with these arguments - without understanding chronology and waypoints to date, the arguments demand production of something to begin at a past point before anything exists to produce.
Great post Suraj!
ANother Swarajya article in the making ...
Suraj
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Suraj »

I've already written about this on Swarajya. People fundamentally fail to understand what's happening here. The west and India does this differently.
West:
* Throw huge sums of money at Big Pharma, out of your taxes.
* Half the candidates fail anyway, and each co still gets $0.5-2 billion for the trouble
* Indians complain 'in west no one pays for vaccine, why do we have to pay ?' . This is dumb. Total US spending of $18 billion on Operation Warp Speed + subsequent orders totals well over $50 per person in vaccine cost. You're paying it in taxes.

India:
* Govt handholds every local company, checks what they need, helps them import anything critical, tries to influence raw material supplies.
* When a candidate is near Phase 3, govt starts placing orders. Happened with Covaxin and now with Biological-E .
* Unlike west the government doesn't convey 'demand' by placing ridiculous numbers of orders for something at least 6-12 months away from starting supply. Instead they convey support directly and when the companies say they have a stable and effective formulation (i.e. Ph 3 going well) the wheels of productions start turning.
* Indian orders of ~100m each get deliveries within the subsequent 3 months from order. The shortest time from order to complete fulfillment of any 100m dose Pfizer or Moderna order is 8 months.
* Govt is buying significant vaccines out of PM CARES funds, which from the amount of funds consumed, appear to exceed Rs.10000 crore now. In effect, zero taxation impact from the April orders paid for with these funds.

The government has no problem with taking criticism for 'authorizing Covaxin early' - they'd have done the same with Biological-E now if the motivated press had not been so vicious about it in January. Instead they pre-ordered as soon as the company felt confident about starting largescale production in 2 months.

Covaxin and Biological-E will be amongst the cheapest and most widely available vaccines in the next few months . Each of them will be produced in a volume ranging from 70-120m doses per month. If either of them get COVAX supply capability via WHO EUL, they will also dominate COVAX supplies. The west would like its own more expensive vaccines in that role, and therefore Indian vaccines will keep seeing hit jobs against them.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

ritesh wrote:Why are people so very pessimistic?? Hasnt Modi shown opposition the mirror and expose their double standard and incompetence?
This has been the state since the whine thread have been shut. Mudi lit a fire to the gas in the gas bags (all opposition leaders, mediapimps, emperor penguins) and here we still have to do rona-dhona.

Modi did mention the High Court observation that older people have to be sacrificed for vaccinating the younger one.

Remember, It was a HC judge who made such an insane observation*. And that observation was borne out of opposition clamoring for vaccinations above >18 years. And now opposition is clamoring for vaccination for >2 years. And this while the states do not even have a proper health care infrastructure extending out of state capitals.

But then, some forum members will still do rona-dhona and bring in all esoteric arguments on why MudiMustRezine.

*If this kind of observation from a lootyens judge does not boil your blood, nothing will.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

For members who do not want to go through data, inspite of several posters making it so easily and cogently available (like above by Suraj San), please go with the current facts:

1. Number of nations with an *effective* vaccine: Three (3) (US, Russia, India)
2. Number of *effective* vaccines : Six (6) ( Pfizer, Moderna, J & J, Sputnik, Covishield & Covaxin) (2 out of 6 from India)
3. Number of effective vaccines in mass productions and avl. for vaccination : Five (5) (Pfizer, Moderna, Sputnik, Covishield & Covaxin) (2 out of 5 from India)

If vaccine development and procurement and mass innoculation was so easy, how come only 3 countries and only 5 effective vaccine candidates are available? Where is Japan? SoKo?

Population which will receive at least single shot of vaccine (covishield or covaxin) by June 30, 2021 : ~400 million

Population of western and northern europe ( Germany France Netherlands Belgium Austria Switzerland Luxembourg Monaco Liechtenstein United Kingdom Sweden Denmark Finland Norway Ireland Lithuania Latvia Estonia Iceland Channel Islands Isle of Man Faeroe Islands) : ~400 million

At this point of time, on vaccine all rona-dhona is invalid. Yes, ppl will have issues with Cowin app, supply chain issues, long lines, misplaced appointments, corruption etc. In spite of that and despite that, millions are getting vaccinated daily.

So please digest the above simple facts. Digest that vaccine was the moonshot and that any rona-dhona on this just puts that poster in bad light and also casts useless aspersions on the massive and successful effort of GOI. In your cynicism, please do not become the tools of the same BIF which you think you are rallying against.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by saip »

Indian government wastes money ($250 mil) ordering 300 mil doses of unapproved vaccine or so screams the BBC. I guess only developed countries can order vaccines before they are approved and corner them so that others can not get them.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

disha wrote:For members who do not want to go through data, inspite of several posters making it so easily and cogently available (like above by Suraj San), please go with the current facts:

1. Number of nations with an *effective* vaccine: Three (3) (US, Russia, India)
2. Number of *effective* vaccines : Six (6) ( Pfizer, Moderna, J & J, Sputnik, Covishield & Covaxin) (2 out of 6 from India)
3. Number of effective vaccines in mass productions and avl. for vaccination : Five (5) (Pfizer, Moderna, Sputnik, Covishield & Covaxin) (2 out of 5 from India)
Oxford/Astrazeneca (aka Covidshield) should qualify UK.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile: "Nine states have underutilized the vaccine doses supplied to them between January and March." per "officials" . I am sure some may say all made-up data but still is there a pattern here?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by sohamn »

disha wrote:For members who do not want to go through data, inspite of several posters making it so easily and cogently available (like above by Suraj San), please go with the current facts:

1. Number of nations with an *effective* vaccine: Three (3) (US, Russia, India)
2. Number of *effective* vaccines : Six (6) ( Pfizer, Moderna, J & J, Sputnik, Covishield & Covaxin) (2 out of 6 from India)
3. Number of effective vaccines in mass productions and avl. for vaccination : Five (5) (Pfizer, Moderna, Sputnik, Covishield & Covaxin) (2 out of 5 from India)

India has one effective vaccine as of today (efficacy > 50%) and let's be real and honest here. Covishield is developed by UK and not India. Also, China has at least 1 effective vaccine - multiple p3 trials have demonstrated results between 50% and 90% efficacy)
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by vijayk »

Adam Housley
@adamhousley
Emmy winning former Senior news Correspondent & former professional Baseball Player. Husband,Father, Food,Wine,Friends,Family. 50 countries 44 states
Adam Housley @adamhousley
Jun 4
They absolutely do. They just don’t use it. Only when they have to.
4thTurning @ForceEcon
Jun 4
Replying to @adamhousley
China doesn’t have an effective vaccine now
Adam Housley @adamhousley
Jun 4
Being told the increased pressure on China in recent days is due to a defector with intimate knowledge. In fact, Wray didn’t know right away because they wanted to make sure they got all they needed before telling him.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

Raja wrote:Oxford/Astrazeneca (aka Covidshield) should qualify UK.
Former UK is the 30th state of India.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by arshyam »

sohamn wrote:India has one effective vaccine as of today (efficacy > 50%) and let's be real and honest here.
Source?
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by disha »

sohamn wrote:
India has one effective vaccine as of today (efficacy > 50%) and let's be real and honest here. Covishield is developed by UK and not India. Also, China has at least 1 effective vaccine - multiple p3 trials have demonstrated results between 50% and 90% efficacy)
Nonsense. If you think Sinovac (and its cohorts from various factories of China) is effective, please go to Bahrain. There you will most likely get a non sinovac/sinopharm booster. Most likely pFizer. Why? Please read this article https://swarajyamag.com/news-headlines/ ... rm-vaccine

Imagine what would have happened if India's covi- vaccines had the failure rate of sino- vaccines. So please do not plug ineffective sino- vaccines here. First they give you the virus. Then they claim that they have a vaccine to cure you of the Wuhan Virus. And then you find out that the vaccine is so ineffective that you have to buy another different kind to feel safe.

On Covi- Astra Zeneca provided the concept, however one of the major component of an effective vaccine is an adjuvant. Please read up on that. Minus an adjuvant, the vaccine is useless. That is part of vaccine development. An important part. The inertial navigation system of a satellite.

And the launch was also funded by PMCares fund and Indian Tax payers money.

Further, PM Modi claimed that India developed two vaccines. i see no reason to contradict him.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Raja »

Okay then. I am sure that reality might have something to say about that, but as long as you don't see a reason to question it. Either way, it is no small feat to be able to produce the vaccine in such large quantities.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Pratyush »

sohamn wrote:

India has one effective vaccine as of today (efficacy > 50%) and let's be real and honest here. Covishield is developed by UK and not India. Also, China has at least 1 effective vaccine - multiple p3 trials have demonstrated results between 50% and 90% efficacy)
COVAXIN has an efficacy rate of over 81% as per ICMR data. That's good enough.

Source

Efficacy rates
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by pgbhat »

Waiting for opposition to come out and ask mudi-ji to rejine as they want vaccine to be delivered home where as mudi-ji is asking people to stand in hot summer sun in long queues to get vaccinated.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Post by Deans »

Suraj wrote: This is a horribly flawed picture and a great example of how the politics are clouding a view of reality. First, understand ALL the data, then make a conclusion. Here are the datapoints:

* It is not possible to define whether a vaccine candidate will be productizable while it is in early (Ph 1/2) trials. This is because in that phase they try to establish whether that specific formulation even registers an immune response. I have the dates of Phase 1/2 for several major vaccines:

Code: Select all

Vaccine          CodeName       Ph 1/2       Ph 2/3 
Pfizer-BioNTech	BNT162b1 	  8/12/2020	 12/10/2020
Moderna	        mRNA-1273 	 7/14/2020 	12/31/2020
Covishield	     AZD1222	    7/20/2020	 11/18/2020
Covaxin	        BBV152	     12/10/2020	03/11/2021
Janssen/J&J	    Ad26.COV2.S	9/25/2020	 01/22/2021
Sinovac	        -	          12/15/2020	02/05/2021
With every vaccine, one can expect plans to begin manufacturing to start around the end of Phase 1/2 at the earliest. Before that there's no candidate to produce.

Once there's a candidates, it takes several months to achieve scale, due to the need to achieve yield at scale. Pfizer for example was took 3 months to produce its first 100m doses (achieved second half of March), even though they did Ph2 in August 2020, and were the first western candidate to get Ph3 in Dec.
PSUs IIL and BIBCOL each received Rs.75 crore to build new BSL-3 facilities to produce Covaxin, once it was near the end of Phase 1/2 trials - even before it started Phase 3 trials in December. It takes ~6-9 months to build a BSL-3 facility. In addition, Bharat Biotech itself received Rs.65 crore to build its new Bangalore plant.

Those who don't follow the news are not aware that all of these companies - even those whose candidates are yet to get past Phase 3 (Zydus, Gennova, Biological E...) have been handheld by the government since last summer.

The claim 'oh they didn't start sooner because there's no order' is not backed by facts. These companies have been interacting with PMO on Zoom for the better part of a year now. Both sides know where each party is, so far every single time a domestic candidate is near readiness, the government has gone out of the way to make things easier for its use:
1. Covaxin got a restricted clinical trial mode use authorization in Jan, while midway through its Phase 3 . This was heavily criticized, but nevertheless a masterstroke in enabling its production to start quickly. News from Jan 5: Covaxin stockpile at 20 m, set to scale up: Krishna Ella

Covaxin has a particular production issue with needing a BSL-3 line, and the government invested in a total of 5 such lines so far (2 at BB, IIL, BIBCOL and Haffkine) between Nov 2020 and April 2021.

Two Indian candidates, both getting preferential advance treatment. All of them in constant contact with PMO over Zoom and in person for the better part of a year, expediting clearance of what they needed for development and production. This is Adar Poonawalla from May 2020 thanking Govt for helping with efforts to clear imports of machinery for the Covishield production deal he signed soon after with AZ.
Deans wrote:I believe we could have completed 300 million doses by end April (which was the Govt's objective)
Which is not true: India Aims to Inoculate 300 Million by July. Currently at 236 million, India will be past 300m end June, well beyond 400m end July.

The entire world combined had not vaccinated 400 million at the start of April. That's a fact - feel free to check on ourworldindata. Combined global vaccinations on March 31 was 343 million. Indian production accounted for one third of that.

Nobody has been able to scale up production in the manner you imagine - even those with candidates 2-4 months ahead in terms of Ph1/2 clearance. That is the response to the claim 'could have scaled up sooner'. No, everyone has taken several months to achieve process scaling.

Many of these arguments move up the timeline so far back claiming 'should have started / ordered earlier' that they overshoot an actual vaccine to produce. Novavax and GSK/Sanofi have over a billion doses in combined orders across EU/US/UK and a combined total of 0 delivered so far, with the earliest likelihood being late summer. By then both Covaxin and Biological-E would have achieved >50m dose/month production rate.

That's the problem with these arguments - without understanding chronology and waypoints to date, the arguments demand production of something to begin at a past point before anything exists to produce.
Suraj ji, I enjoy reading these views on Swarajya and other publications, which focus on data more than biased opinions. I don't disagree. I'm reasonably aware of vaccine rollout dates and the difficulties involved at every stage. I recognise that in public policy, there is never a right or wrong decision, only a choice between several sub-optimal ones and the correctness of a decision is only known well in the future. I don't think any other political dispensation would have done a better job.

Looking at the data, my view is that even if the Govt believed there would not be a significant 2nd wave, it should have, as per its stated plan,
vaccinated all HCW, FLW & those over 60, by end April. These are 150 million people, or 300 million shots. This should have been covered.

Even in the best of circumstances, there would be vaccine hesitancy and it is unlikely that much more that 50% of this group would be fully vaccinated. However, any shortfall would be more than made up by those in the 45-60 age group, who might want to get vaccinated. If there was still a failure to use this quantity, there were firm export orders that SII had (and not fulfilled to date), so SII /GOI would not have lost money or unused vaccines.

The rollout of phase 1-2-3 testing suggests that GOI might have placed orders by end Nov, for 300 million doses, to be delivered by end April, with
an option to SII/BB to export whatever GOI did not lift. The UK pre-ordered 100 million doses of AZ as early as Sept 20, though emergency approval came on 31st Dec. I'm not talking about other pre-ordered vaccines for the reasons you rightly mention. Nov may also have been a good time to ensure we had an additional BS-3 facility available by April (instead of July) for Covax production. It was certainly not going to happen if BB had orders for only 10 million doses. We had the capacity to administer 90 million doses a month, so 300 million doses to be administered from 21st Jan to 30th April, would have been a reasonable policy.

To put this theoretical construct against actual numbers:
We administered 51 million doses in March. (eligible population was 140 million).
86 million doses in April & only 61 million in May.

The combined production capacity of SII & BB in May, was 59 million doses/month. This is borne out by May dosage. We started May with a stock of 6.5 million doses, so assuming no stock on 31st May, we could not have administered more than 65.5 million (including wastage we did 62-63).
The first week of June had 19.3 million doses. So we have increased capacity by 20 million units (assuming 80 million doses in June).

My submission is that taking the decision in Nov to ramp up capacity on a war footing, might have resulted in our having a capacity of 80 million
units in April, instead of June. I understand that govt had an intent to do so in Nov, I'm just questioning if our system displayed the seriousness of purpose in executing. We had pre-ordered stock of only 50 million from SII and 10 from BB (another 50 million for SII was added later).
If we had additional pre-orders of 50 million from SII (BB would have taken longer to ramp up) and higher capacity in place 2 months earlier,
we could have administered an additional 102 million doses between March and end May. This assumes a limitation of 100 million doses a month
that the health system can administer and a stock of 10 million doses on 1st June.
I don't think these numbers are unreasonable.

Of course, at every step, any govt decision would have been criticized by Oppn, challenged in SC etc. I think that is where GOI at every level - from MoHFW daily briefings, to shared data, to PM briefing the country, might have been better handled.
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