Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Amber G.
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Mar 2020 10:08

The very crude disease doubling rate I estimated above appears to match the the estimation of 2.4 days doubling rate in an
..

Just simple math.. if this exponential rate keeps up, one would be looking about 400,000 cases by the end of 4 weeks in US Alone
(PLEASE NO trolling type silly comments .. this is just math --with numbers please make your own assumption about one means by the same exponential growth - if you don't know please read up on it. Draw you own conclusions ... don't blame the math or troll me.

Added later: BTW this is consistent with what I was looking too. unfortunately this growth is similar to Germany and France too...
It just seem that US is just shifted by a few weeks from Korea in terms of epidemic growth.
Last edited by Amber G. on 08 Mar 2020 10:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 08 Mar 2020 10:27

https://www.news1.news/u/2020/03/corona ... first.html

Looks like ICU rationing is being considered in Italy. Are they going to ask the chinese squad that put up a hospital in ten days?

Place a age limit for access to intensive care, based on the greatest possibilities of survival. That’s what the Italian society of anesthesia, analgesia, resuscitation and intensive care in a technical document related to the emergency coronavirus. “It may be necessary to place an age limit on entry into intensive care. It is not a question of making merely valuable choices, but of reserving resources that could be very scarce for those in the community primis more probability of survival and secondly to those who can have more years of life saved, with a view to maximizing the benefits for the greatest number of people “, reads the report entitled” Recommendations of clinical ethics for admission to intensive treatments and for their suspension , in exceptional conditions of imbalance between needs and available resources “. The report was also disseminated and fully published on the Siaarti website, and is addressed to doctors. What in Lombardy region they decided to write directly to the governor Attilio Fontana to ask him to express their concerns to the central government: “In the absence of timely and adequate provisions by the Authorities we will be forced to face a event that we can only qualify as a disastrous health disaster“, Reads the document addressed to the President since Coordination of intensive care in Lombardy.
Last edited by sudeepj on 08 Mar 2020 10:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 08 Mar 2020 10:29

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/us/c ... -home.html

Look at the picture.. Still no proper PPE! Where is the eye protection? damn! I think the US may be caught with its pants down by this.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Mar 2020 10:45

With respect to testing .. there are plenty of good references .. Here is brief summary ..
CT scan (Sundeepj has mentioned it above) - the accuracy (both in terms of sensitivity and specificity) is estimated in 97% range.

We have RT-PCR type tests - Many countries are making it.. some companies (in South Korea, China, Germany etc) have become very good , they are producing hundreds of thousands (or million in one case) every day. US's CDC goofed but others have only improved over time ..
Accuracy reaching in high 90's%, Many are real time - eg give results in minutes. Some places, you don't have to visit a lab - you give/drop sample and results come to your home etc..

Institutes in Singapore, China, and South Korea also have developed antibody based tests too. One, reportedly can give results in about 10 minutes. (Others take a day or so) (This can detect if one had COVID-19 and now recovered - no virus but antibody still present)

Then there is Nucleic acid based test ( Explify Respiratory test - metagenomic nucleic acid analysis) - It is rather expensive but can identify about a thousand different pathogens which now includes SARS-CoV-2 too. (Turn around time is 1-2 days).

Hope this helps. Looks like US is straightening out it's testing mess. Next few days will show how much.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Mar 2020 11:01

Cain Marko wrote:
Amber G. wrote:sudeepj - short note to say thanks. (One study - Washington State case , I posted it here too ..)

I have been looking up / analyzing this (doubling time period) too, over some time - the death data is more reliable.
Short thing pops out - Italy, South Korea and Iran are now "out of control'" - designation
Japan - Almost there - can go either way
To watch: France, Germany, Spain and the US
(May post some graphs here by country - based on data we have)
Meanwhile:
Here is one interesting update on one graph: About death rates:
[>img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESiOEbvXYAAc0Pt?format=png&name=900x900[/>img]


Amberji, correct me if I'm wrong, but this confirms my fears that the virus is far deadlier in non China populations. Iirc in the USA, it's 380 cases with 17 deaths. I wonder if it's because of the demographic differences, lots of older people in the US thanks to the bbs.


I don't know..

I am trying to share data and hard numbers ..so people can get more perspective... I am waiting for more data.

One thing you may like to consider is that US data is *not* complete. Since very few people have been tested - as compared with China - US is likely to have many more cases than 400 or so.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 08 Mar 2020 11:26

sudarshan wrote: Now to really test your skill, could you come up with an English language rhyme for "Wuhan?" Or just complete this Limerick, which I started for you below :mrgreen:
There was once a virus in Wuhan....


I started the above, then went *oops* :oops: so now I'm relying on you to finish it.
So, here's my attempt. It was difficult to rhyme with Wuhan managed to get something (one caveat: I deliberately avoided injecting any levity in the verse, given the gravity of the situation).

A virus from a Wuhan meat shop
Decided to take a world-wide hop
First it spread through Hubei
And continued on its cruel way
To spread round the globe non-stop.

(Mods to indulge a second one:)
Said a noxious virus in Wuhan
Maybe its time to go to Iran
But once it got going
It showed no signs of slowing
And went way past till it hit Milan.
Last edited by SriKumar on 08 Mar 2020 11:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Mar 2020 11:37

Meanwhile this tweet from a US Doctor - Good advice :)
James Hamblin
@jameshamblin

We can probably abandon the premise that it’s news when cities find their first case. Test as much as possible but until we have better data assume the spread is wide, including in countries that lack mass testing capacity like Algeria, Senegal, and the United States.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 08 Mar 2020 13:19

5 more people from Kerala test positive for coronavirus

All the five hail from Pathnamthitta district.

While three of them had returned from Italy on February 29, two others were their relatives, the minister said.

All the five have been isolated in Pathnamathitta general hospital and are under observation. Their tests were confirmed on Saturday night.


Three passengers from the two flights mentioned here have been tested positive for Corona virus on Saturday. The Kerala health minister has urged other passengers of these two flights to get in touch with their nearest officer or call on the helpline that's been put out.

Flight No - QR 126
Date - 28/02/2020
VENICE to DOHA

Flight No - QR 514
Date - 29/02/2020
DOHA to KOCHI

Five new cases of coronavirus in Kerala, says Health Min KK Shailaja

The three people who returned from Italy include a 55-year-old man, his 53-year-old wife and their 24-year-old son. Their two relatives, aged 65 and 61, were infected later. Their samples were tested at NIV Alappuzha and were found to be positive for coronavirus.

“The five people went home from the airport in a private vehicle. Anyone who travelled on flight QR 514 to Kerala should inform the state,” KK Shailaja told the media on Sunday.


The minister told the media that the three people who arrived from Italy did not specifically inform authorities at the Kerala airport that they are coming from Italy and they did not contact health officials after coming to Kerala. The three people began to show symptoms on March 4, the minister said. They went to a private hospital, but did not inform the private hospital of their travel history. Later, on March 6, two of their relatives, who are also their neighbours, went to a taluk hospital in Pathanamthitta complaining of fever and then told the officials of the three people’s travel history to Italy. After this, officials visited the family and found that they had symptoms of coronavirus. On March 6, all the five people kept in isolation.


"They were not ready to come to hospital. Our health authorities had to convince them and use force to bring them to hospital. Their tests were done and they turned out to be positive," KK Shailaja said, adding, "Their behaviour not to inform the government is a highly irresponsible. By not informing, they may transmit the disease to their friends and relatives."


The minister added that two grandparents in the family, aged above 90, have contracted fever on Sunday. They, however, have not been moved to the hospital yet. They will be shifted to Kottayam medical college.

Minister KK Shailaja has also asked people to be alert and inform authorities if they have travelled to any coronavirus-affected country.


“People who have travelled from coronavirus-affected countries like Italy and Iran should inform the government and not doing so will be considered as a crime. Local residents or neighbours can also inform the authorities. Everyone should remain extremely vigilant. People who have travelled to Kerala from foreign countries should remain in home quarantine for 28 days,” the minister added.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vinod » 08 Mar 2020 15:49

^^^^
Can these people be charged with manslaughter for such irresponsible behaviour?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 08 Mar 2020 17:39

sooraj wrote:
Three passengers from the two flights mentioned here have been tested positive for Corona virus on Saturday. The Kerala health minister has urged other passengers of these two flights to get in touch with their nearest officer or call on the helpline that's been put out.

Flight No - QR 126
Date - 28/02/2020
VENICE to DOHA

Flight No - QR 514
Date - 29/02/2020
DOHA to KOCHI

“People who have travelled from coronavirus-affected countries like Italy and Iran should inform the government and not doing so will be considered as a crime. Local residents or neighbours can also inform the authorities. Everyone should remain extremely vigilant. People who have travelled to Kerala from foreign countries should remain in home quarantine for 28 days,” the minister added.


India is doing a far better job than the US. Unlike Amreekis who treat same level threats in a stupidly discriminatory manner, India at least tries to catch them everywhere.

Cheen pretty much quarantined itself more than a month ago. Everyone else had an extra month to prepare no matter how much Cheen lied. There is no excuse.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gerard » 08 Mar 2020 17:54

Amber G - so what is best estimate of R0 and CFR for this thing?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 08 Mar 2020 18:39

Collector says at least 3000 people may have come in contact with the infected; Final list immediately.

14 from Kerala, who mingled with COVID-19 infected Italy-returnees, quarantined.

It has come to light that the three COVID-19 patients from Italy had visited the office of Superintendent of Police for renewing the son's permit and other formalities after reaching Kerala. A special branch officer had also visited their home in Ranni as part of the verification process. The officer has also been placed under observation.


The health department is also observing another relative's place in Punalur visited by the family.


The government is still tracing the driver of the car on the basis of the CCTV visuals obtained from the airport.


Pathanamthitta District has been put on high alert after five cases were confirmed in the district on Sunday. All public gatherings are banned in the district until further notice, Collector PB Nooh said. The collector has also held discussions with religious leaders in the area on the matter. Seven teams have been deployed to identify the homes visited by the family.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 08 Mar 2020 20:29

IQ is not the forte of an Indian MP :mrgreen:

Navneet Kaur Rana from Amravati, Maharashtra

Ma'am, yaa toh naak neeche kheench lo, yaa phir mask upar kar lo.



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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby disha » 08 Mar 2020 22:33

I think CoronaVirus scare is a precursor to something else in future. This is just a "trailer", picture toh-abhi-baki-hain.

It shows the responsiveness of each country and why US is blaise about it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Mar 2020 23:08

Gerard wrote:Amber G - so what is best estimate of R0 and CFR for this thing?


I am posting the values (see below) which IMO are the current best estimates .. but let me make a few comments:

CFR:

While discussion mortality risk , there is lot of discussion about CFR lot of misunderstanding.

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) metric is defined as dividing the total number of deaths divided by total number of confirmed cases.
This should not be confused with Crude Fatality Rate (crude mortality rate)probability that a person from a population will die from the disease. It’s calculated by dividing the number of deaths from the disease by the total population.

This is important to differentiate, because unfortunately people sometimes report case fatality rates as the crude mortality rate, and vice versa.

Also, often there are cases where disease is never diagnosed. cases with mild symptoms are often not tested or we have incompetence like CDC in US.


A good graph from our world in data:

Image

****
There is no single case fatality rate for a disease – it is context-specific, changing with time and location

Unfortunately, it is common to report the CFR as a single value. But the CFR is not a biological constant. The CFR is not a value which is tied to the given disease, but is instead reflective of the severity of the disease in a particular context, at a particular time, in a particular population.

Latest Values: (March 7th - Data)

Case fatality rate globally = 3.4%
Case fatality rate in China: 3.8%
Case fatality rate for the rest of the world: 1.9%


These numbers will change -- It’s currently higher than the estimates of a CFR of around 2% that were published until early February.

My estimation, for India, (or US if we don't goof up ) this will be, when things settle down, < 0.5 %. This assumes our hospitals and health services do not get run-over. (I am using Korea, Singapore data).. For older population and people with other health issues this could be more deadly (5%) -- so it is important to keep it from spreading.
****

R0 - Again it is just a number mostly used in mathematical models. I will put the values here but but it is important to understand their meaning:

WHO's estimate: Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5.
Other studies ( IMO quite accurate:) bet 2.3 and 3.6

(For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.)

It really depends on the environment and lot of other things.

***
I think "doubling time" is more meaningful in understanding - At least this is metric is more popular in Physics.

FWIW: Here is the current value:
China - 21 days
Rest of the world - 4 days.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 08 Mar 2020 23:44

Amber G. wrote:
Gerard wrote:Amber G - so what is best estimate of R0 and CFR for this thing?


I am posting the values (see below) which IMO are the current best estimates .. but let me make a few comments:

CFR:

While discussion mortality risk , there is lot of discussion about CFR lot of misunderstanding.

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) metric is defined as dividing the total number of deaths divided by total number of confirmed cases.
This should not be confused with Crude Fatality Rate (crude mortality rate)probability that a person from a population will die from the disease. It’s calculated by dividing the number of deaths from the disease by the total population.

This is important to differentiate, because unfortunately people sometimes report case fatality rates as the crude mortality rate, and vice versa.

Also, often there are cases where disease is never diagnosed. cases with mild symptoms are often not tested or we have incompetence like CDC in US.


A good graph from our world in data:

Image

****
There is no single case fatality rate for a disease – it is context-specific, changing with time and location

Latest Values: (March 7th - Data)

Case fatality rate globally = 3.4%
Case fatality rate in China: 3.8%
Case fatality rate for the rest of the world: 1.9%


Forgive me for being dense, I'm no genius at math, but I don't get the above graph wrt CFR. If CFR is number of deaths/number of cases, the US overall CFR should be 19/386 = 5%? Why does the graph show 2.4% for all ages (cases?)?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 08 Mar 2020 23:53

Cain Marko wrote:
Forgive me for being dense, I'm no genius at math, but I don't get the above graph wrt CFR. If CFR is number of deaths/number of cases, the US overall CFR should be 19/386 = 5%? Why does the graph show 2.4% for all ages (cases?)?

Perhaps because the 2.4 (or 2.3) % is calculated from the data for out-break in china (up to Feb 11) as clearly marked in the graph. :)

(You are right about CFR as being 5% for US at present - Though I think this will change as soon as more tests are done and more people and count for confirmed cases becomes more accurate.)

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudeepj » 09 Mar 2020 00:11

Amber G. wrote:
Gerard wrote:Amber G - so what is best estimate of R0 and CFR for this thing?


I am posting the values (see below) which IMO are the current best estimates .. but let me make a few comments:

CFR:

While discussion mortality risk , there is lot of discussion about CFR lot of misunderstanding.

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) metric is defined as dividing the total number of deaths divided by total number of confirmed cases.
This should not be confused with Crude Fatality Rate (crude mortality rate)probability that a person from a population will die from the disease. It’s calculated by dividing the number of deaths from the disease by the total population.

This is important to differentiate, because unfortunately people sometimes report case fatality rates as the crude mortality rate, and vice versa.

Also, often there are cases where disease is never diagnosed. cases with mild symptoms are often not tested or we have incompetence like CDC in US.


R0 - Again it is just a number mostly used in mathematical models. I will put the values here but but it is important to understand their meaning:

WHO's estimate: Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5.
Other studies ( IMO quite accurate:) bet 2.3 and 3.6

(For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.)

It really depends on the environment and lot of other things.

China - 21 days
Rest of the world - 4 days.


Great post Amber ji! Ill only add that R0 itself varies over time and how many hygiene measures people take. In an un-alarmed population, itll be a lot higher than a population that is properly alarmed and practicing some measures of social distancing. As the infection is dying out in China itself, Singapore, HongKong - implies that school closures, work from home, cancelling large gatherings is having its intended effect and applying the breaks on the infection. This is *really* encouraging. This is also the reason why blase public postures -'just a bad cold bro', 'just a bad flu bro' are so dangerous and irresponsible. A public taking proper precautions is the only thing protecting us right now and while we should not encourage panic, we should also not encourage complacence.

Finally, there is something in the protein structure of this virus that makes it highly contagious - as in, if your nasal membranes are exposed to it, you will catch it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 09 Mar 2020 00:14

I might have posted it before, but let me post it again --- for those who are trying to make sense out of CFR (and are not allergic to Math)
The Misleading Arithmetic of COVID-19 Death Rates

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 09 Mar 2020 00:48

disha wrote:I think CoronaVirus scare is a precursor to something else in future. This is just a "trailer", picture toh-abhi-baki-hain.

It shows the responsiveness of each country and why US is blaise about it.



That’s the most interesting post in the past few pages. Why do you think so?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 09 Mar 2020 02:59

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... e-updates/
Coronavirus live updates: Italian outbreak came from German manufacturer, study says; Virginia reports second case
by Paul Schemm, Lateshia Beachum, Kim Bellware, Hannah Knowles and Brittany Shammas, March 8, 2020

The epidemic ravaging northern Italy and prompting a massive lockdown affecting millions of people can be traced to an outbreak at a car parts manufacturer in Germany, according to a study by Italian virologists — findings that are likely to shatter assumptions that German authorities had successfully contained the first major cluster in Europe.
Authorities around the world are imposing new travel restrictions and issuing emergency declarations as Egypt announced its first death. In the United States, the death toll rose to 21 on Sunday to include two more residents of an infection-stricken nursing home. U.S. cases have surpassed 400 and affected more than 30 states, as well as the District of Columbia, where a church rector had the city’s first confirmed infection. Virginia announced a second case on Sunday.
With positive cases reported among attendees of major gatherings — including a conservative conference attended by the president — some political organizations have reassessed their plans for large-scale events. But Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Sunday that he is moving forward with plans to hold campaign rallies ahead of Tuesday’s primaries in six states.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 09 Mar 2020 03:06

^^^ I thought it was strange that Germany and France had such low infection numbers when they are even more engaged than Italy in the China trade and tourism fronts.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 09 Mar 2020 03:49

. U.S. cases have surpassed 400
.
US Cases are already 521 .(and likely to go much higher as testing becomes more available)..
strange that Germany and France had such low infection numbers

Also Germany and France, as I said before, are country to watch --- -- not as bad as Italy yet..but it can be if they are not careful... right now their numbers are lower only from those in China/Iran/Italy and SK .

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rishirishi » 09 Mar 2020 03:59

Please correct me if I am wrong.

In Eu there are estimates that some 300 million people will get infected. With 3.5% death rate, we are looking at 10million + deaths :shock:

For India the corresponding number is 34 million, UK will have 2 million.

Is this true ?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 09 Mar 2020 04:29

The most interesting cases are the sporadic ones, with no known connection to index cases or someone in the chain. The problem with this conjecture is of course silent carriers.

What are the sequences of these specimens? If close to the Wuhan, then there is a possibility of spread from consumer goods imported from China. If there is significant sequence diversion, perhaps these are in fact viral infections by a Wuhan virus like virus that is unconnected to China.

That is, there may be a pool of covid-19 like viruses that we are only now detecting because we now have a reasonable sequence homology in the RNA probes. (Ain't I a genius?).

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 09 Mar 2020 05:25

1. Does anyone know how does a self-quarantine work? So, one guy shows symptoms and is asked to self-quarantine, but is not tested. He's infecting his home (i.e. spouse, kids, chimney cleaner) with whatever he is sick with. So now, does the quarantine automatically quarantine the family members in the same houshould as well? If not, that quarantine zone is a fortress from which new infections (of those who have COVID) are being spread via the family/room-mates who can move freely.
2. In shopping for groceries today, saw the stores stocked with plenty of everything and shortage of nothing. Crowd was more than usual (about 25% more) and everyone had their shopping cart packed to the brim. The grocery store chain has prepared for this.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 09 Mar 2020 05:31

Rishirishi wrote:Please correct me if I am wrong.

In Eu there are estimates that some 300 million people will get infected. With 3.5% death rate, we are looking at 10million + deaths :shock:

For India the corresponding number is 34 million, UK will have 2 million.

Is this true ?


Please read this post - this may answer your question.. (I am bolding the relevant part)
Amber G. wrote: ..
....
CFR:

While discussion mortality risk , there is lot of discussion about CFR lot of misunderstanding.

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) metric is defined as dividing the total number of deaths divided by total number of confirmed cases.
This should not be confused with Crude Fatality Rate (crude mortality rate)probability that a person from a population will die from the disease. It’s calculated by dividing the number of deaths from the disease by the total population.

This is important to differentiate, because unfortunately people sometimes report case fatality rates as the crude mortality rate, and vice versa.

Also, o
ften there are cases where disease is never diagnosed. cases with mild symptoms are often not tested or we have incompetence like CDC in US.

To be clear - The number of people who will get infected depends highly on how we control the spread - taking common sense steps will help. And CFR can be kept low if health services are good as most who may get infected are likely to be mild.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 09 Mar 2020 05:31

Rishirishi wrote:Please correct me if I am wrong.

In Eu there are estimates that some 300 million people will get infected. With 3.5% death rate, we are looking at 10million + deaths :shock:

For India the corresponding number is 34 million, UK will have 2 million.

Is this true ?


Death rate is unlikely to be that high. The true rate will be revealed only after widespread testing is available, and perhaps even not then. For example, in Washington State, which is where the US cases are concentrated - and the virus is estimated to have been circulating for 6 weeks - the death rate is something like 15% today, (18 deaths and 136 confirmed cases). At the same time, 74 deaths have occurred in that state due to the flu this season. One thing that took me by surprise while reading up is that even the 0.1% estimated death rate for flu is a statistical estimate based off approximation using data sources like Google searches and purchases of cold medicine by customers. The problem again being that not everyone who gets the flu goes to the doctor to get diagnosed and counted in the statistics.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 09 Mar 2020 08:56

vera_k wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Please correct me if I am wrong.

In Eu there are estimates that some 300 million people will get infected. With 3.5% death rate, we are looking at 10million + deaths :shock:

For India the corresponding number is 34 million, UK will have 2 million.

Is this true ?


Death rate is unlikely to be that high. The true rate will be revealed only after widespread testing is available, and perhaps even not then. For example, in Washington State, which is where the US cases are concentrated - and the virus is estimated to have been circulating for 6 weeks - the death rate is something like 15% today, (18 deaths and 136 confirmed cases). At the same time, 74 deaths have occurred in that state due to the flu this season. One thing that took me by surprise while reading up is that even the 0.1% estimated death rate for flu is a statistical estimate based off approximation using data sources like Google searches and purchases of cold medicine by customers. The problem again being that not everyone who gets the flu goes to the doctor to get diagnosed and counted in the statistics.


Here is math one can use.. Assume US gets as bad as South Korea . Let us use SK's numbers for estimate..
-- % People getting infected among general population ==> this is about .014% (See my post / graph for cases / million ..
-- Mortality rate among this = .5%
Crude Mortality rate = 0.00007%

This is much lower number than CFR at present. It may get worse in US if we don't take control - (See Wuhan for example)

Doing rough (order of magnitude) Math: This may translate to about 2000 deaths in US (300 Million population) If situation gets as bad as Korea

But things go worse -- It can get really bad if we ignore science - (1918 flu season is an example). Wuhan, Italy and Iran are other data points . We may be looking at 10, or even 100 (or even more) type of numbers if this goes "out of control"
Hope this helps.
***
Added later - Just to give perspective, a doubling time of 4 days means in 40 days -- if the same exponential growth continue -- the number of cases will be 1000 X.
Last edited by Amber G. on 09 Mar 2020 09:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 09 Mar 2020 09:33

Hitting too close to home --my D-I-L a doctor who obviously was not working from home - is having fever and was asked to self- isolate. Which is fine (resting will be good in some ways) but even with all the resources we are getting run around to get the testing done. Hope their hospital cuts through red-tape and have the testing done soon - specially for people who see other patients - for everyones peace of mind. Hope the testing guidelines change tomorrow.
Last edited by Amber G. on 09 Mar 2020 20:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby BSR Murthy » 09 Mar 2020 10:06

Amber G. wrote:Hitting too close to home -- one of my kid - a doctor who obviously was not working from home - is having fever and was asked to self- isolate. Which is fine (resting will be good in some ways) but even with all the resources we are getting run around to get the testing done. Hope their hospital cuts through red-tape and have the testing done soon - specially for people who see other patients - for everyones peace of mind. Hope the testing guidelines change tomorrow.

Hope he will be fine soon. The testing process could be much better.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 09 Mar 2020 10:19

SriKumar wrote:1. Does anyone know how does a self-quarantine work? So, one guy shows symptoms and is asked to self-quarantine, but is not tested. He's infecting his home (i.e. spouse, kids, chimney cleaner) with whatever he is sick with. So now, does the quarantine automatically quarantine the family members in the same houshould as well? If not, that quarantine zone is a fortress from which new infections (of those who have COVID) are being spread via the family/room-mates who can move freely.
.

FWIW - For me this is what we do in case of flu (or such other such disease) Things like:
- Person is confided mainly to one room - If I can manage I may have a separate bathroom . Out side that room one keeps the time short, washes hands, keep touching other objects to minimum etc..
Eat in the room or be careful if outside the room. Wash all dishes, silverware etc in dish washer etc..
- Having separate room ==> person can rest.
- If you have children keep them away from that room, Others wash your hands often etc.
- Dirty clothes / bed sheets go directly in the washing machine ..

Covid-19 guidelines: ( Contact is == face-to-face with the person for more than 15 minutes)
or in the same closed space for two hours or more ... etc ... you get the idea, it is not like being kept in a bubble :)

Important part is - DONT go to work, use public transport, shopping/eating in crowded places ..share food etc in common plates etc..

Here are "official guidelines" Self-isolation advice for Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Last edited by Amber G. on 09 Mar 2020 10:41, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 09 Mar 2020 10:24

First child coronavirus case in India: Kerala 3-yr-old who visited Italy tests positive

Officials from the state of Kerala have confirmed that a 3-year-old child of a family who traveled to Kochi from Italy via Dubai has tested positive for coronavirus bringing the total to 41 cases in India.

The parents and the child who had gone to visit Italy arrived in Kochi on March 7. During universal screening at the airport, it was found that the child has fever, following which the child was admitted to the Ernakulam Medical College hospital and samples taken. The samples returned positive on Monday, following which officials have begun contact tracing of all the passengers and airline crew members who may have come in contact with the child.

The child, who is under observation and is undergoing treatment, is stable.

The parents too are in isolation wards and their samples have been sent for testing. The government has said that a few airport officials who had close interactions with the child, have been identified and are under observation.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 09 Mar 2020 11:11

As far as deaths are concerned ... largest number of deaths was yesterday.. and the growth factor is growing..
Image

Even more worrisome - growth factor - (>1 means it is growing)
Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 09 Mar 2020 11:28

More and more Malayalees are arriving from Italy while the coronavirus fears persist. Of the five flights, 45 will arrive today. They will be transferred to the Isolation Ward.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chola » 09 Mar 2020 12:19

Follow up to the earlier story about the lax/non-existent screening for Italy at Logan International. It looked like the Tennessee case was infected by Europeans at a Boston meeting. Who knows how many were infected at the meeting which was at a hotel or at the company.

Logan is a main hub for flights from Europe but it is not one of the 11 airports equipped to deal with Covid 19 screening. The nearest one to Boston would be JFK in New York City. Travelers from Italy and the EU have a straight shot into the US population without any check when going through Logan.

The US is still geared towards stopping spread from Cheen and Asia but is almost completely ignoring the threat from Europe in spite of Italy. This is almost criminally stupid.

https://www.boston.com/news/health/2020/03/05/tennessee-man-coronavirus-boston-logan


A Tennessee man who has been diagnosed with the novel coronavirus recently traveled between Boston’s Logan airport and Nashville, health officials announced Thursday. It is Tennessee’s first case of the virus, known as COVID-19.

The Tennessee Department of Health said the man, from the state’s Williamson County, has a mild illness and is isolated at home. He had recently traveled nonstop on a roundtrip flight between Boston and Nashville, officials said, but they did not specify when the trip took place.

“The patient was asymptomatic while traveling,” the department said in a statement. “TDH is in close contact with the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and Tennessee Coronavirus Task Force Member Doug Kreulen, chief executive officer of Nashville International Airport, about this case.”

...

Cambridge-based Biogen announced Thursday that three people who attended a company meeting in Boston last week have tested positive for coronavirus. Two of the people live in the European Union and the third lives outside Massachusetts.

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said Thursday it appears “at this point in time” that the Tennessee case is the third Biogen employee.


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sooraj » 09 Mar 2020 13:17

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 09 Mar 2020 13:59

Coronavirus: Kerala family that landed from Italy hid vital information to slip through the system



09th March 2020

KOCHI: The way the family from Venice slipped through the screening system at the Kochi Airport has come as a jolt to the Health Department and spoiled the hard-earned reputation of the state as the most secure place in the country to guard against the spread of the deadly coronavirus.

But the authorities have put the blame squarely on the Ranni family for concealing vital information including the fact they arrived from Italy, which now has the second-largest COVID-19 infected cases after China, when they landed at the Kochi airport.


N K Kuttappan, DMO, Ernakulam said the family has acted “irresponsibly” to evade the screening by hiding important points in the declaration form.

“As the form filling is compulsory for passengers to come out of the airport, the Ranni family has submitted the form without informing the officials that they are coming from Italy. Since they claimed they had no symptoms, they were not screened either,” he said.

A CIAL official has clarified that lack of stamping in the passport from the European Union (EU) countries was another reason for the three-member family comprising a 24-year-old youth and his parents aged 55 and 53 respectively.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Malayappan » 09 Mar 2020 14:39

Saudi Arabia seals off Shia Qatif region over coronavirus fears

Saudi Arabia has cordoned off an oil-rich Shia region, suspended air and sea travel to nine countries and closed schools and universities, in a series of measures to contain the fast-spreading coronavirus.
The lockdown on Qatif on Sunday, an eastern area that is home to around 500,000 people, is the first action of its kind across the Gulf region, which has confirmed more than 230 coronavirus cases – most of them people returning from religious pilgrimages to Shia-majority Iran.Given the kingdom’s 11 recorded cases of the new coronavirus are from Qatif, “it has been decided to temporarily suspend entry and exit” from the area, the interior ministry said in a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA).
Except for essential services such as pharmacies and petrol stations, work will stop in all government and private institutions in Qatif, the statement added.
Although the ministry said the lockdown was temporary, it risks fuelling resentment in the flashpoint region whose residents have long accused the Sunni-dominated government of discrimination, a charge Riyadh denies.
Four more cases of Covid-19 were reported in the kingdom on Monday, three of whom were said to have had contact with a person with the virus who had reportedly returned from Iran via the United Arab Emirates, but did not disclose his visit to the authorities. The fourth case was an American who had visited Italy and the Philippines.
The government also decided to temporarily suspend “the travel of citizens and residents to the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria, South Korea, Egypt, Italy and Iraq, as well as suspend the entry of those coming from those countries”, the agency reported.
“The kingdom also decided to stop air and sea travel between the kingdom and the mentioned countries,” it added.
The decision is expected to leave expatriate workers from those countries as well as Saudi travellers stranded.
Riyadh also announced it was closing all public and private universities and schools across the country from Monday until further notice, SPA reported. all educational and Koranic activities in mosques in the country were also cancelled.
Saudi Arabia has blamed Iran for its spike in coronavirus cases, while condemning Tehran for allowing its citizens entry without stamping their passports.
The Saudi government has reminded its nationals of a standing ban on travel to Iran, as the two countries jostle for regional supremacy.
Iran is home to key shrines and pilgrimage sites for Shias, who make up between 10-15% of Saudi Arabia’s population of 32 million.
The kingdom has also suspended the umrah year-round pilgrimage over fears of the disease spreading to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina in the west. The unprecedented suspension has raised uncertainty over the annual hajj pilgrimage, scheduled for the end of July.
The pilgrimages, a major source of revenue, could also be a source of contagion and the move mirrors a precautionary approach across the Gulf to cancel mass gatherings – from concerts to sporting events.
Bahrain’s Formula 1 Grand Prix scheduled for 20-22 March will be held without spectators, the organisers said on Sunday, the latest sporting event to be affected by measures to contain the disease.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 09 Mar 2020 14:48

There needs to be a better way to screen for the virsus. Checking for just temperature is frankly a foolish way to doing it.

The virus does not become active for 14 days, people easily move out of the airport spreading it all around.

All one has to do is to visit one of these airports and you are infected. Hell even if use one of the Metro/bus/train that goes to the airport, you could be infected.

You don't even have to travel outside of the country. Travel should be banned and every passenger coming in should be quarantined. Letting them go, becoz they don't have temperature is nonsense.


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