disha wrote:The following article has to be read once
That is why, the Kerala numbers need to be looked at. In May, half of India will enter into a clay oven of 37*C+ temperatures. In some parts, the rusty buckets of state transportation will feel like autoclaves. State government must ban all large gatherings. Including marriages. This is going to be tough to enforce but doable.
I think Uttam said - don't trust ssrn. But in any case, maybe things will be fine in May, but what happens in September?
Suraj san, I'm looking at 1918 for a reason. The initial February epidemic was mild, by most accounts. Then when it returned in September, it had devastating effect. Is that going to happen again, probably, as temperatures come back down in the northern hemisphere, starting September.
Then in October 1918, the pandemic was at its height. By November, things were almost back to normal, at least in the USA!
How come? The hypothesis is that the unusual conditions of WW-I caused a reversal of what happens during flu. Usually, the more severely affected cases stay home, the ones who are mildly affected go out to work as usual. So the milder strains get passed around. But in 1918, the milder cases stayed put at the war front, while the severe cases got sent back to densely populated bases and cities, thus circulating the severe strains. Once those strains killed off people, the strains themselves died out.
The current pandemic, even if it is quelled for now, it is coming back in September (to the northern hemisphere), most likely. We hopefully don't have the crazy conditions of 1918, that's some comfort. Please do look at the historical context to get some clue on how to proceed.