Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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Deans
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 25 Mar 2020 18:11

prashanth wrote:
Deans wrote:
We screened 15.2 lac passengers from abroad (not sure if all initially had a fever test). Though we feel its `a lot of returnees', positive cases. as a percentage of 1.5 million, is not many. I don't believe any other country screened that many pax, in the initial stages of infections, when cases were in double digits and there were no fatalities. Thought I'd mention this as some people (usually NRIs wanting their 2 mins of twitter fame) are full of doom and gloom stories of lax checking at airports.


Screening is effective only for individuals that show symptoms such as very high temperature/ fatigue/ cough etc. But in the air conditioned environment of an airport surface temperature measurement can be misleading, more so if a suspected individual takes an antipyretic like paracetamol. I think the government should have hand-stamped passengers arriving from airports/countries that had widespread cases of this disease-like they are doing now-from the very beginning. Hope the practice is continued for some more time, in anticipation of the second wave.


With the benefit of hindsight, I think we made a lot of mistakes in airport screening. For e.g. we should have hand stamped from day 1. People could have been asked to sign that they received a govt advisory on home quarantine, with a mention of penalty of imprisonment etc if they don't follow it.
More facilities could have been provided for screening with temporary holding areas.
That said, we have done a lot in a short time and with limited resources. I don't think there is need for self flagellation,when we hear media reports of
students taking a pill to reduce temperature (not sure what is stopping journo's / authorities to follow up and visit those students). A lot was made of a tweet by someone coming to Ahmedabad claiming he had not been tested (proven to be untrue). People complain of poor sleeping facilities in a airport holding area in Bangalore, but will uncomplainingly stand for 6-10 hours in a queue in a US airport to get cleared.

chetak
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 25 Mar 2020 18:15

Coronavirus Outbreak: Amid 21-day locksdown, India bans Hydroxychloroquine export, drug to be used to treat medical staff handling COVID-19 cases


New Delhi: Amid the coronavirus outbreak, the government on Wednesday banned export of anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine, with immediate effect to ensure sufficient availability of the medicine in the domestic market.

Coronavirus Outbreak: Amid 21-day locksdown, India bans Hydroxychloroquine export, drug to be used to treat medical staff handling COVID-19 cases

Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) Director General Balram Bhargava had on Monday recommended the use of hydroxychloroquine for treating healthcare workers handling suspected or confirmed coronavirus cases and also the asymptomatic household contacts of the lab-confirmed cases.

The treatment protocol recommended by the ICMR-constituted National Task Force for COVID-19 has been approved by the Drug Controller General of India (DGCI) for restricted use in emergency situations.


In a notification issued on Wednesday, the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), an arm of the commerce ministry which deals with export and import-related matters, said, "The export of hydroxycloroquine and formulations made from hydroxycloroquine is prohibited with immediate effect".

It, however, said the government will allow export of the medicine on humanitarian grounds on case-to-case basis on the Ministry of External Affairs' recommendation.

Export will also be permitted from the special economic zones/export oriented units and in cases where the outbound shipment is made to fulfil export obligation under any advance authorisation license issued on or before the date of this notification, which is 25 March, 2020.

It added, "Export will be allowed in case of shipments where irrevocable letter of credit has been issued before the date of this notification or in case where full advance payment has been received by the exporter in India against specific shipment, subject to submission of documentary evidence."

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 25 Mar 2020 18:24

So looking at all the gloom and doom stories here and from th analysts saying that India will face USA like numbers or more, shall we all say our prayers and be ready to leave?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 25 Mar 2020 18:36

Leave what sir, this mortal plane or this destructible vessel containing your soul? Things were always going to be bad, we watched a trainwreck from a safe distance and on forseeing a fresh one could not connect two and two together, while all the while hopefuls milled about with news of vaccines and cures and humidity. I for one do not see why a concept that has eluded us for so long can so easily be remedied simply because this time humanity has suffered grievously. Even if one survives but without ones family what would even be the point of going on, for nation and economy? Its a tough choice all around, when faced with the choice of gdp and lives, the ccp chose the former while italy chose the latter. The us has decided 15 days to be sufficient enough to make peace with the future, perhaps there is a lesson for us all there.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby prashanth » 25 Mar 2020 18:36

Deans wrote:With the benefit of hindsight, I think we made a lot of mistakes in airport screening. For e.g. we should have hand stamped from day 1. People could have been asked to sign that they received a govt advisory on home quarantine, with a mention of penalty of imprisonment etc if they don't follow it.
More facilities could have been provided for screening with temporary holding areas.
That said, we have done a lot in a short time and with limited resources. I don't think there is need for self flagellation,when we hear media reports of
students taking a pill to reduce temperature (not sure what is stopping journo's / authorities to follow up and visit those students). A lot was made of a tweet by someone coming to Ahmedabad claiming he had not been tested (proven to be untrue). People complain of poor sleeping facilities in a airport holding area in Bangalore, but will uncomplainingly stand for 6-10 hours in a queue in a US airport to get cleared.


No no. Didn't mean it that way. Indian government and authorities have done a wonderful job so far and I am very happy about it, compared to 'herd-immunity' clowns, and 'everything-is-in-god's-hands' idiots we see in other countries. It is a section of people that have failed, such as the examples quoted above, and that is the reason we have this nation-wide lockdown today, justified completely.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 25 Mar 2020 18:37

sushant sareen Retweeted
Gurugram Police
@gurgaonpolice
All officers of Gurugram Police have been directed that following online delivery services
@zomato

@flipkart

@amazon

@bluedart
@wow_express
@swiggy

@groffers

@bigbasket

@milkbasket

@dunzo

@bigbazzar

@Iffco
Tokyo goods shall be allowed to operate.


Should have been done from the outset rather than reactive and causing chaos and panic.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby a_bharat » 25 Mar 2020 18:45

Came across a 3 year old story about an inexpensive, full-featured, portable ventillator created by an AIIMS doctor and an engineer to help patients needing ventilator support get care at home. They have since productized it: https://www.agvahealthcare.com/. Here's a video on the quint: https://fit.thequint.com/fit/aiims-worlds-cheapest-portable-ventilator

https://www.businesstoday.in/top-story/coronavirus-update-noida-startup-to-supply-5000-ventilators-by-april-15/story/399076.html
"We're facing difficulties in terms of availability of raw material. Mostly coming from China. Import and export have taken a hit. That's why it's taking time. But as asked by the government, we'll be able to supply 5,000 by April 15," Vaish added.

Vaish had also consulted with the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) on how these ventilators can be deployed. MoHFW has suggested a few changes to suit the needs of coronavirus patients.

The company, which has built the most economical ventilator, is all set to ramp up production to manufacture 12,000 units every month, from its current capacity of 150, reports Money Today. Currently, there are around 600 such ventilators deployed across India and AgVa Healthcare is aiming to deploy around 20,000 of them as soon as possible. AgVa ventilator's base model costs around Rs 1.5 lakh.
Last edited by a_bharat on 25 Mar 2020 18:50, edited 1 time in total.

kvraghav
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 25 Mar 2020 18:46

I have one question in general. Why do we have less death rate in terms of flu when compared to other developed nations with such wonderfull health care facility?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 25 Mar 2020 18:50


nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 25 Mar 2020 19:12

Spain: 738 death in the lat 24 hours.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby TKiran » 25 Mar 2020 19:21

I think China would have understood how corona spreads and it's not revealing.

Cholera epidemic was contained only after the method of spread through fecal material in water was understood.

Malaria was contained only after it's spread through masquitoes​ was understood.

China is deliberately spreading misinformation that corona virus spreads through surfaces. It's wrong.

I think it spreads through air. Distance may not be the solution, some other method which Chinese have done subtly, but not shared would be the solution. N95 may not be the solution.

nam
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nam » 25 Mar 2020 19:23

dr.uday wrote:
nam wrote:Allow the essential shops to be open 24 hours. So that people can go and buy anytime and there is no rush.

+1


Looks like someone read the idea..

Karnataka to allow essential shop to be open 24 hrs.

https://twitter.com/nagarjund/status/1242802229502853120

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby tandav » 25 Mar 2020 19:24

kvraghav wrote:So looking at all the gloom and doom stories here and from th analysts saying that India will face USA like numbers or more, shall we all say our prayers and be ready to leave?


I don't see any gloom and doom ... I do believe we will show the world how it is done. Our response to the crisis so far has been quite to the point and getting better as we learn from lessons that the virus is teaching everyone. Bearing a few idiots who gamed the system to escape quarantine we have done reasonably well... self reporting seems to be the way to go...for a nation of 1.3 billion we have only ~600 confirmed cases. Others who are infected will gradually stream into hospitals over next 10 days and will be isolated from the rest until they recover. Our testing systems are ramping up and we should have a good handle on this...

Ideally Govt should have GPS tagged the phones of all high risk people (potentially infected) and their close family and asked them to self quarantine for 14 days, under threat of cancelling passports or other punitive action like locking bank accounts.

Kaivalya
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Kaivalya » 25 Mar 2020 19:44

^^^
+10 tandavji

Here is an aggregated view of how this is done. I can't fathom why Indian IT majors are so slow to do anything useful. After this is implemented, we can carefully combine this and new case data to provide relief to other districts. Khan land talks about wartime powers, maybe legal folks here can suggest some way that we can put IT majors and resources to good use

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby CRamS » 25 Mar 2020 19:51

Very interesting how libarandus and libtards and BIF very quickly take a contrarian position. Their pet peeve now, even as they keep their fingers crossed that India will be consumed by COVID, is that everything Modiji is doing is a 'fraud' and 'PR' because there is no testing going on. I felt like spitting on that Lutyen b@strad Mihir Simon Sharma for mocking a very benign 5-minute show of clapping and bell ringing support by Indians en masse post Janta curfew as a 'gimmick'. Will the scum bag dare say 'gimmick' in Bloomberg to mock Italians doing the same thing and keep his paid propaganda job? I doubt it, his sorry ass will kicked out of Bloomberg news rooms.

I am keeping my fingers crossed. Studying some mathematics models and experimenting with data myself. Gratified that so far in the past 48 hours, there has been no dramatic spike in India, and US rise also is slow.

While I do believe there may be many more infected who just haven't shown symptoms yet, and many may never show symptoms but may infect others; what is clear is that as of say 10-14 days ago, there was no mass epidemic in India. Or else by this time, the #s would have been staggering like the 'predictions' by that scum bag from Princeton who was painting all kinds of dire scenarios on Indian TV with dumbo hosts like Burka Bibi and Rahul Kanwal.
Last edited by CRamS on 25 Mar 2020 20:04, edited 1 time in total.

Cain Marko
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 25 Mar 2020 19:52

Karan M wrote:A curve flattening can be done not merely till a vaccine is available but more capacity is brought online or better treatment protocols. A bad economy is the least of our issues if a pandemic takes off. The extra time these 21 days get is exactly for things like PPE to be improved given the specs got released on march 2nd, build is underway. Otherwise our hospitals will be swamped as we speak.

THIS THIS THIS.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sajo » 25 Mar 2020 20:06

To all hakims, are all 41 recoveries in India down to management of symptoms only? None down to the efficacy of HydroxyChloroquine and Azithromycin and HIV drugs against the virus ?

DrRatnadip wrote:Its raining in pune.. hope it helps in clearing virus from environment


Sir isnt it the other way round? The cold and damp weather in Pune may be infact conducive to the growth of this virus?

I am surprised that the Online marketplaces still havent found their bearings, either because sarkari excesses or closed facilities. But I am greeted by this message whenever I try :

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aditya_V » 25 Mar 2020 20:07

I think given what the world is going through Chinese being a closed society are underreporting numbers. With 140 crore population, something like ~3 crore must be the normal death toll, I.e ~25 Lacs a month. I think most people outside Wuhan must not be even aware they are carriers and death's will be attributed to other reasons like multiple organ failures etc. I think the true extent of Chinese fatalities will come out in coming months and could even lead to Xi leaving office. Chinese have been mainly reporting numbers from Hubei whereas world over people traveling to other parts of China have caught the virus.

We must find a way to make inward Travel into this country very strict for next 6 months.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 25 Mar 2020 20:09

Atta boys. India reported 70 cases and one death today. Although more than 40 cases reported yesterday, It is less than last week's trends of 100 per day. Looking at the number of people positive after visiting middle East, turkey, Phillipines etc, I think these countries are reporting less numbers because critical people are less. If we go searching, these countries will have 100 times more numbers. Mental stress plays big part in immunity and may be more numbers means more paranoia which is leading to more critical ilness?I sincerely feel Bangalore IT zones were handled well. All travelers from Feb were asked to stay back for 14 days after return and entire Bangalore IT shutdown after the first case. Central ac here would have played heavoc

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Aditya_V » 25 Mar 2020 20:14

TKiran wrote:I think China would have understood how corona spreads and it's not revealing.

Cholera epidemic was contained only after the method of spread through fecal material in water was understood.

Malaria was contained only after it's spread through masquitoes​ was understood.

China is deliberately spreading misinformation that corona virus spreads through surfaces. It's wrong.

I think it spreads through air. Distance may not be the solution, some other method which Chinese have done subtly, but not shared would be the solution. N95 may not be the solution.


Or they are not reporting deaths or cases. Many lacs of people will be dying from multiple causes in China. Being a closed society many doctors might labeling death's due other causes. Unless there is major spike which increases death rate by 20- 30 lacs a month it is not going to start ringing bells. Remember they tried to suppress the information and it was only when international tourists became infected they began to admit there was a problem.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby g.sarkar » 25 Mar 2020 20:14

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/worl ... -maps.html
Coronavirus Live Updates: Infections Soar in New York as Congress Reaches $2 Trillion Aid Deal
People fleeing New York to other parts of the country were told to quarantine themselves for 14 days. President Trump said he wanted the U.S. “opened up” by Easter. The number of deaths in Spain — more than 3,400 — surpassed the toll in China.
The $2 trillion relief package is the biggest in American history.
The White House and Congress struck a deal in the predawn hours to deliver $2 trillion in government relief to a nation increasingly under lockdown, watching nervously as the twin threats of disease and economic ruin grow more dire.
Reached after midnight, the rescue deal was the product of a marathon set of negotiations among Senate Republicans, Democrats and the White House that had stalled as Democrats insisted on stronger worker protections and oversight of a $500 billion fund to bail out distressed businesses.
Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, announced the deal on the Senate floor well after midnight.
“At last, we have a deal,” he said. “In effect, this is a wartime level of investment into our nation.”
The passage of the bill buoyed financial markets in Asia and Europe, and the optimism looked likely to carry over to Wall Street, as trading in futures indicated a strong opening for stocks there.
The sheer size and scope of the package would have been unthinkable only a couple of weeks ago. Administration officials said they hoped that its effect on a battered economy would be exponentially greater than its $2 trillion cost, generating as much as $4 trillion in economic activity.
.....
Gautam

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 25 Mar 2020 20:18

sajo wrote:To all hakims, are all 41 recoveries in India down to management of symptoms only? None down to the efficacy of HydroxyChloroquine and Azithromycin and HIV drugs against the virus ?

DrRatnadip wrote:Its raining in pune.. hope it helps in clearing virus from environment


Sir isnt it the other way round? The cold and damp weather in Pune may be infact conducive to the growth of this virus?

I am surprised that the Online marketplaces still havent found their bearings, either because sarkari excesses or closed facilities. But I am greeted by this message whenever I try :

Image

Sample size is too small.. Rain will help in clearing virus from environment if all infected stay indoor.. It will help..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 25 Mar 2020 20:29

This is a good idea, in Allahabad. Physical distance.
https://i.dawn.com/large/2020/03/5e7b65af4c7e3.jpg

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby tandav » 25 Mar 2020 20:29

Waste water starts showing traces of Virus about 4 days after the first few cases. The Dutch have shown this is the case. By monitoring waste water we can track community spread. Instead of testing people at random.. go to the nearby nallah / STP and sample the water and assess the situation via this method. Can the standard PCR test kit pickup viral loads from water? Can it give an indication of the viral load in terms of concentration?

https://www.rivm.nl/node/153991

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/d ... lattening/

As an added precaution all municipal drinking water supplies should be disinfected more thoroughly as in many parts of India waste water contaminates drinking water sources.
Last edited by tandav on 25 Mar 2020 20:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sachin » 25 Mar 2020 20:42

nam wrote:Karnataka to allow essential shop to be open 24 hrs.

At least in KA, they have formed a committee which includes ministers and bureaucrats etc to assess the situation periodically. DGP, Zone IGPs, Range DIGs have all given detailed instructions for the police officials on the ground manning the check posts etc. One of them is to allow any form of goods vehicles to be passed through. Secondly district, division revenue & police officials have been authorized to issue individual & vehicle passes, and they are also monitoring the number of such passes as well. And district level officials also sensitizing the men. The police also know clearly that it is not their head-ache alone and revenue and health officials also have to be there with them. Today the Bengaluru city commissioner has called representatives of on-line trade portals to get inputs and feedback from them as well. So the situation is getting reviewed very frequently and course corrections done.

My gut feeling is that with these periodic reviews, they would ease out curfew in certain areas step by step. And ultimately only the few areas which really have more patients would be kept under curfew.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby KLNMurthy » 25 Mar 2020 20:45

dr.uday wrote:How long are we going to faltten it? Lockdown should be extended until a vaccine is available. Can we afford it? People will suffer the bad economy for many years to come.

As a layman, here’s how I am explaining to myself the logic of a lockdown:

Imagine an ideal scenario in which there is 100% passive isolation (all hosts and potential hosts are sealed in s theoretical bubble, but nothing else is done) IOW 0 transmission of the virus. The virus is then confined to whatever host if is living on. Over a period of 2-3 weeks, either

1. The host’s immune system fights off the virus OR

2. The host dies, either due to the virus or some other cause.

In both cases, assuming 100% isolation, the virus units all die and there is no further transmission or reproduction.

Now relax the 100% isolation assumption, and consider a scenario in which the isolation is close to, but not equal to, 100%. But add active human intervention, like quarantined medical care, drug therapy, and strict policing etc.

There will be some virus-stragglers and contagion in this case, but due to active human intervention, the transmission is chain is changed from being a pseudo-infinite geometric series (pseudo- because we know that after a point, the ceiling of finite population kicks in, as with any pyramid scheme model) to a finite series with low n. In effect, this is linear, or non-linear with low maximum exponent n.

Dud to the finite nature of the transmission series, human intervention can stamp out all the stragglers, e.g., by applying soap.

I (as a layman) am guessing that this is broadly the model behind a lockdown & limit (aka flatten the curve) strategy. In this model, a vaccine is one of the tools of human intervention, along with soap & water, that will limit the max n of the series. However, it is not the sole necessary element. It may be the most effective one, but it is not necessary.

The analogy to fighting terrorism seems pretty straightforward. You wish there was a way to make potential recruits unreceptive to recruitment, but, as long as the recruitment chain can be made finite, you can still fight terrorism and “win”, defined as, terrorism is still active, but its effect on normal functioning of society is negligible.

And yes, in both cases (virus and terrorism) there is an economic and social direct cost as well as opportunity cost, but TNSTAAFL (“There’s No Such This As A Free Lunch”) as Robert A. Heinlein said.
Last edited by KLNMurthy on 25 Mar 2020 20:46, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby nvishal » 25 Mar 2020 20:46

This is regarding the Indian workers in gulf. Sent by an anonymous person to a youtuber named loy machedo

Youtu.be/YTHgX2GZgss

7,000 UAE Indians Locked Up In Labour Camps With Possible Covid-19 Infection - UAE Expats Writes

This was what was written to me by an UAE Expat based in UAE. I have kept his details confidential.

Hi Loy,

In addition to what you are communicating on your channel regarding corona virus in Dubai, I would like you to highlight the spread of corona virus in UAE labor camps.

By and large for most middle and upper class people things are very much under control in Dubai and the UAE. However, everyone is very quiet on the plight of huge number of labourers from India who are locked down in camps in sonapur.

I work as a shift supervisor for one of the large contracting companies. Overall this company have been pretty decent in terms of timely salary payments etc,,, However, since last couple of weeks over 5000 to 7000 workers from my and other contracting companies are kept in pathetic lockdown conditions. As is the labour camps in the UAE are not something to talk about and now with 20-30 ppl lockdown in one room for days, it is getting disgustingly ugly. Apparently orders have come from top to lockdown labour camps, it is now feared almost all of them have been infected and the indian government have been asked by the UAE authority to arrange for their deportation. Similar issue happened for the chinese workers, and about couple of dozen chartered flights to China carried them back home. But for these indian workers, things are getting bad to worse. Even the ones who are not infected will eventually get infected as they are all put together in these pathetic labour camps. It's unfortunate that this section of the society is left unheard and kept to be mercilessly be infected. You can verify this information from all other sources you may have.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vsunder » 25 Mar 2020 20:51

https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/25/21193746 ... s-covid-19

Floyd Cardoz the chef is dead. Coronavirus. He owned Tabla and Bombay Bread Bar in NYC and hailed from Goa and very high profile in NYC.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vera_k » 25 Mar 2020 20:59

Sachin wrote:My gut feeling is that with these periodic reviews, they would ease out curfew in certain areas step by step. And ultimately only the few areas which really have more patients would be kept under curfew.


Unfortunately, India is not testing much. Without testing, it is impossible to know where the patients are.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sachin » 25 Mar 2020 21:01

nvishal wrote:This is regarding the Indian workers in gulf. Sent by an anonymous person to a youtuber named loy machedo

Air lifting a large population from The Gelf may not be an option. I don't know if that was the intention of the anonymous user whose letter you quoted. What can be done is to use India's diplomatic good will with the sheikdoms and try getting better facilities for the workers. Air-lifting them, then moving them to big facilities in India for quarantine would be a costly move. And if this crowd also starts jumping the wall and start moving towards their home towns, it is going to cause more harm. We have already seen cases of even the so called 'literate, rich' citizens of India who had dodged the government agencies and tried escaping to their homes.

And my cynical mind also says that the moment such news spreads there would be the usual gang who would start blaming GoI & Modi and try to arm twist it to do air-lifting etc. We have seen how folks like Brinda Karat behaved during the Kathmandu flight hijack. First it would be air lifting, then it would be lumpsum payment of cash, then free tickets to go back after the treatment etc.

A similar condition is now being faced by the migrant labour community (from Northern and North Eastern states) in Kerala. Those folks are now out of their jobs, and they used to reside in these 'labour camp' style accommodation. Those poor folks now cannot go back because trains are now canceled. And many 'labour camp' owners may also not want these people to be around (no rent, and no work to do as well). Many of them have started starving and there was a picture of a poor labourer crying when a few auto rickshaw drivers gave him a few bananas to eat. The photo was placed next to another photo; a Malayali youth wearing a mask leaving the Beverages Corp outlet 'well stocked' with booze.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 25 Mar 2020 21:15

80% of coronavirus test kits 'gifted' to Czechs by China faulty
Oh well, at least the virus was more effective...
:mrgreen:


80% of coronavirus test kits 'gifted' to Czechs by China faulty



TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Czech news site on Monday (March 23) revealed that 80 percent of the much-touted traunch of Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) rapid test kits "donated" from China are faulty, forcing healthcare workers to rely on conventional laboratory tests.

On March 18, as is the case with many of its other quasi charitable acts, Chinese state-run mouthpieces used the verbs "supplied" and "delivered" to give the impression that the communist regime was donating 150,000 portable, rapid COVID-19 test kits to the Czech Republic. In fact, the central European nation's Health Ministry paid some 14 million crowns (US$546,000) for 100,000 test kits, while the country's Interior Ministry footed the bill for another 50,000, reported Expats.cz.

However, Czech news site iROZHLAS on Monday revealed that local healthcare workers have discovered that up to 80 percent of the Chinese kits give false results. During a crisis staff meeting held for the Moravian-Silesian Region by regional hygienist Pavla Svrcinova, the error rate for the test kits was found to be 80 percent, prompting officials to suggest they only be used for those persons who are nearing the end of their quarantine and never previously tested positive.

According to Svrcinova, the Moravian-Silesian Region will continue to rely on conventional laboratory testing instead. Currently, only 900 such tests can be processed each day.

"We checked them at the University Hospital in Ostrava, but unfortunately the error rate was quite high. So now we are waiting for the results of further testing across the country, and we are considering using them only with people reach the end of their quarantine and have never tested positive, because it works with antibodies," said Svrcinova.

She added that the tests yield both false positive and negative results. "We tested those who searched for a sampling point. Fortunately, we were so farsighted that samples were immediately compared with traditional tests, and that just proved the error rate of the [Chinese rapid] tests, ”said Svrcinova. She said that even if the tests are used with patients who are nearing the end of their quarantine, healthcare workers will need to check their reliability first.

However, Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Jan Hamacek (CSSD) said that the wrong methodology has probably been chosen. "In my opinion, this is not about some scandalous revelation that it is not working," said Hamacek after a government meeting.

According to Hamacek, the Chinese rapid test kits can be "used when the disease has been around for some time," "or if someone returns after quarantine after fourteen days," he added. The leader said that in his opinion, it would be most appropriate to use the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test (conventional lab test) to detect the disease at an early stage.

University of Warsaw professor Andrej Kozlowski was one of the first to share the news in English on social media when he posted this tweet on Tuesday (March 24):

The Czech Republic received 150,000 coronavirus test kits from China. About 80% of the tests give false results.
Athens Czechs have gone back to traditional tests, of which they perform 900 per day. https://t.co/xCFUmnWMq4

— Andrzej Kozlowski (@akoz33) March 24, 2020

Sicanta
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sicanta » 25 Mar 2020 21:20

Sachin wrote:
nam wrote:Karnataka to allow essential shop to be open 24 hrs.



And in UP - India Today - UP Police is announcing in different parts of the state that medical stores and groceries will be opened only between 8-10 in morning and 4-6 in the evening.
#ReporterDiary by @patelanandk
Plus Big bazaar, zomato, swiggy everything is shutdown.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby pankajs » 25 Mar 2020 21:24

https://twitter.com/vilakudy/status/1242361397561851904
Rajaneesh @vilakudy

Much-needed move.

Govt to seize passports of two NRIs (in Kasargod) who jumped the quarantine and defied orders.

Of the 91 cases, 63 cases in Kerala are people who returned from the Gulf.
Too little too late.

GOI should cancel their passorts and make a media event out of it to send a stern message to all.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rsatchi » 25 Mar 2020 21:27

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/lif ... 807817.cms
And this from Cheen!!
Agreed that human transmission are rare!!
But is it not true that in times of dire situation (i.e., paucity of food) people resort to eating rats/cats/dogs etc
Not suggesting that Chini's have reached that stage, but being closed society what happens in rural settings in cheen only Xi knows!!

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby dr.uday » 25 Mar 2020 21:27

KLNMurthy wrote:
dr.uday wrote:How long are we going to faltten it? Lockdown should be extended until a vaccine is available. Can we afford it? People will suffer the bad economy for many years to come.

As a layman, here’s how I am explaining to myself the logic of a lockdown:

Imagine an ideal scenario in which there is 100% passive isolation (all hosts and potential hosts are sealed in s theoretical bubble, but nothing else is done) IOW 0 transmission of the virus. The virus is then confined to whatever host if is living on. Over a period of 2-3 weeks, either

1. The host’s immune system fights off the virus OR

2. The host dies, either due to the virus or some other cause.

In both cases, assuming 100% isolation, the virus units all die and there is no further transmission or reproduction.

Now relax the 100% isolation assumption, and consider a scenario in which the isolation is close to, but not equal to, 100%. But add active human intervention, like quarantined medical care, drug therapy, and strict policing etc.

There will be some virus-stragglers and contagion in this case, but due to active human intervention, the transmission is chain is changed from being a pseudo-infinite geometric series (pseudo- because we know that after a point, the ceiling of finite population kicks in, as with any pyramid scheme model) to a finite series with low n. In effect, this is linear, or non-linear with low maximum exponent n.

Dud to the finite nature of the transmission series, human intervention can stamp out all the stragglers, e.g., by applying soap.

I (as a layman) am guessing that this is broadly the model behind a lockdown & limit (aka flatten the curve) strategy. In this model, a vaccine is one of the tools of human intervention, along with soap & water, that will limit the max n of the series. However, it is not the sole necessary element. It may be the most effective one, but it is not necessary.

The analogy to fighting terrorism seems pretty straightforward. You wish there was a way to make potential recruits unreceptive to recruitment, but, as long as the recruitment chain can be made finite, you can still fight terrorism and “win”, defined as, terrorism is still active, but its effect on normal functioning of society is negligible.

And yes, in both cases (virus and terrorism) there is an economic and social direct cost as well as opportunity cost, but TNSTAAFL (“There’s No Such This As A Free Lunch”) as Robert A. Heinlein said.


That is exactly the plan sir. As the incubation period is max around 14 days and the people recently infected may infect their contacts in next few days, we should get to know all the cases , isolate and treat them in next 21 days. Few cases anyway will be missed, will be aggressively sought and isolated with increased testing capacity. Low level infection will keep continuing in some pocket but will be contained by surveillance. Lockdown can be confined to those pockets

If we fail, then its plan B. We will not get a hold of community spread. Cases will keep pouring in. We will rely only on treating the patients by increasing treatment facilities. We should continue to lockdown to not overwhelm the hospitals. This may eventually fail with indian masses not following lockdown protocols.

Plan C is to just let the virus do what it does and atleast save the economy. Many nations are already getting ready for this as they have not acted in the early stages.

But Modiji acted very early. The gov has done a commendable job in quarantining travellers. Many are criticising the testing protocols, but i dont think we are missing any community spread here. If not, the hospitals would have been already overwhelmed with respiratory cases which has not happened at all. I am hoping this lockdown would achieve the intended goals.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby chetak » 25 Mar 2020 21:31

Palki Sharma@palkisu·10h
Why hasn’t @UN taken up a discussion on #Coronavirus?Because the UNSC Chair for March is China.The monthly Chair decides the agenda.
@ChinaAmbUN says,”there’s no reason to panic at the moment & plan to monitor the situation..COVID-19 currently not on the agenda”
@sidhant @WIONews

saip
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby saip » 25 Mar 2020 21:46

In Hyderabad I heard Medical shops are allowed to open only from 6 to 9 am. And some of the smaller shops were asked to shut down completely. It does not make sense, if true. Medical shops should be allowed open without restrictions.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 25 Mar 2020 21:56

vera_k wrote:
Sachin wrote:My gut feeling is that with these periodic reviews, they would ease out curfew in certain areas step by step. And ultimately only the few areas which really have more patients would be kept under curfew.


Unfortunately, India is not testing much. Without testing, it is impossible to know where the patients are.


On the contrary, India is testing those with the highest risk of contracting Corona (visible symptoms or close contact with an infected person).
Yet, the positive cases are under 2.5% - If you exclude the people who arrived in India infected, only about 1 in 80 locals (with most chance of
getting it) have turned positive. That is very encouraging. The most important piece of info I look at is the daily ICMR report of tests conducted.

A low infection rate is coupled with a fatality rate (across the world) of 0.3% in the 40-49 age group and even lower for younger people.
Under 50 is where the bulk of our population is. Only 6.2% Indians are over 65% (which is where most deaths worldwide are).
The average person infected in Italy was 60.5 years. In China it was 47 and in India, under 40. The average person dying in Italy was 80.5 years and in China 70. That was the single biggest factor in explaining the different fatality rate in Italy vs. China.

Approx. 24000 people in India would have to be exposed to Corona for 1 person to die. I don't see that happening in the lock-down.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suraj » 25 Mar 2020 22:03

Bart S wrote:sushant sareen Retweeted
Gurugram Police
@gurgaonpolice
All officers of Gurugram Police have been directed that following online delivery services
@zomato

@flipkart

@amazon

@bluedart
@wow_express
@swiggy

@groffers

@bigbasket

@milkbasket

@dunzo

@bigbazzar

@Iffco
Tokyo goods shall be allowed to operate.


Should have been done from the outset rather than reactive and causing chaos and panic.

That is rather unfair to them. They have responded to the concerns by offering a clear guidance on day 1 . What more do you need ? Regardless of how much prior guidance you offer, there will be at least SOME day 1 confusion. It is unavoidable. The human mind is not tailored to process a sudden change of circumstances with a collection of new behavioral guidances. It always involves a period of restabilization.

In the US, the greatest/most powerful/yadayada/stable genius run place, and especially Bay Area, home of almost all major tech companies, people lost their collective heads, emptied out shelves of TP, water (what for ??) and I saw a shirt-pulling brawl over beer at the neighboring grocery between two guys who probably then went back home in their respective Teslas.

Posters are advised not to indulge in armchair nitpicking, like the proverbial all knowing unclejis whom we all have. A moment of national crisis and pulling together is not a time for such things.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 25 Mar 2020 22:11

No country so far has tested even 1% of its population.
Not Italy (High no of cases, very advanced medical system), Not Switzerland (Italy with a low population),
Not SoKo and the GCC countries which have high cases, a small population and a policy of broadening the testing criteria.

Testing capacity in India is significantly higher than the current demand. That capacity will go from 1000/day 3 days ago to 10,000/day within a week,if required. The problem we have is not lack of tests or testing capacity. That said, we should do more random tests in localities where infected people stayed to check for stage 3. Sample size of the only previous test was too low.


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