Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
ldev
BRFite
Posts: 1726
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ldev » 10 Feb 2020 23:24

The drop in China air traffic, domestic and international. Huge impact
Image

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1286
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gyan » 10 Feb 2020 23:31

We can calculate the death rate among patients being treated outside China. This will give us some idea about its seriousness.

But the international community seems pretty calm, sanguine.

Either they know it's not serious or they that only Chinese Are going to get hurt.

Perhaps it was some Chinese specific vaccine which went out of control.

ldev
BRFite
Posts: 1726
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ldev » 10 Feb 2020 23:32

Only airlines can show the huge scale of China's coronavirus crisis

Chinese New Year is the largest annual period of transport stress in the world. Beginning fifteen days ahead of Lunar New Year and lasting for a total of 40, Chinese travellers made around three billion trips during 2018’s rush. To ring in the year of Rat on January 25, airports expected a travel surge between January 10 and February 18, as Chinese people living abroad return home to see their families. They were wrong.

New figures show that flight numbers have crashed from 17,181 flights on January 22, the day before the announcement of Wuhan’s coronavirus quarantine, to just 5,095 by February 4, figures from flight tracking company FlightRadar24 show.


Some of the busiest airports in China are located in provinces that are among those most affected by the coronavirus. The scale of the crisis becomes clearer if you track specific airports. The first airport to be shut down, Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, is by far the biggest airport in Hubei. It is the busiest airport in central China, and the sixteenth biggest in China overall. According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), it was used by 24,500,356 passengers in 2018 and carried out 187,699 flights.

In the days before the quarantine, 614 flights took off. On the January 24, the day after the quarantine, only seven flights came out of Wuhan and only 39 came in. By January 25, only 13 came out and 11 in – leaving the once bustling airport effectively dormant.

As an article from Airport Technology outlines, the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is the third busiest in China – it handled 35.64 million passengers in the first half of 2019 and is located in Guangzhou city, which is the second most-affected province in China. FlightRadar24 data shows that between January 22 and February 4, there was a drop off in flights of more than two thirds, from 1,666 to 555.

The Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport is located in the capital of Zhejiang province in east China – the third most-affected province. Passenger traffic was more than 40 million in 2019. But, according to the FlightRadar24 data, flights fell from 877 on January 22 to 160 on February 4.

Also significant to the drop off in domestic rates are massive reductions in flights in China’s three busiest airports – Beijing Capital, Shanghai Pudong and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport. In Beijing Capital, the busiest airport by passenger traffic in China and the second busiest airport in the world with 100 million annual passengers in 2018, flight numbers have tumbled in just over a week, from 1,837 on January 22 to 672 on February 4.

vinod
BRFite
Posts: 711
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vinod » 10 Feb 2020 23:33

madhu wrote:
As on today (12.30 IST) infected people is 40,164 and death is 910-2(1 Philippines and 1 Hong Kong) that means the fatality rate due to virus is 910/40164 ~ 2.26%
Now for the rest of the world infected people 40,540 – (40,164 mainland) = 376 people. And death is only 2 that means the fatality rate due to virus is 2/376 ~ 0.6%


This is a wrong calculation.
Assuming the people dying now were showing symptoms and hospitalized 10 days before for ex: In case of the doctor, he started showing symptoms around 26 days before his death. The relevant number should be the confirmed ones as of that date of when people were confirmed and of that how many died and recovered.

So in your calculation, assuming a 10 day lag.
Total Confirmed case as on 31/1: 11.2k
Total Death now after 10 days of illness: 910.
So fatality rate: 910/11200 = 8%

Now, if you take reported recovered persons, it gets scarier.
Assuming that the people who had recovered and dead, had shown symptoms at the same time.
Total= Recovered + Dead = 3578 + 910 = 4488
So, fatality rate: 910/4488 = 20%.

ldev
BRFite
Posts: 1726
Joined: 06 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ldev » 10 Feb 2020 23:42

I was talking to a doctor friend of mine who said that in the absence of a vaccine, the only medical care is "supportive" while the body fight's the virus. That "supportive" care requires hospitalization and the number of beds available in hospitals in any country whether first world or third world is limited. Once the available hospital beds are overwhelmed, patients will die. In China they have already been overwhelmed many times over. Outside China, hospitalization is still possible and hence the death rate is lower. However if there is a pandemic outside China, the death rate will also soar. This of course does not take into account whether the virus is artificially engineered and if so to attack specific gene types e.g. East Asians.

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 316
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 10 Feb 2020 23:48

vinod wrote:
madhu wrote:
As on today (12.30 IST) infected people is 40,164 and death is 910-2(1 Philippines and 1 Hong Kong) that means the fatality rate due to virus is 910/40164 ~ 2.26%
Now for the rest of the world infected people 40,540 – (40,164 mainland) = 376 people. And death is only 2 that means the fatality rate due to virus is 2/376 ~ 0.6%


This is a wrong calculation.
Assuming the people dying now were showing symptoms and hospitalized 10 days before for ex: In case of the doctor, he started showing symptoms around 26 days before his death. The relevant number should be the confirmed ones as of that date of when people were confirmed and of that how many died and recovered.

So in your calculation, assuming a 10 day lag.
Total Confirmed case as on 31/1: 11.2k
Total Death now after 10 days of illness: 910.
So fatality rate: 910/11200 = 8%

Now, if you take reported recovered persons, it gets scarier.
Assuming that the people who had recovered and dead, had shown symptoms at the same time.
Total= Recovered + Dead = 3578 + 910 = 4488
So, fatality rate: 910/4488 = 20%.


Now do the same calculation for outside mainland. U will see far less fatality rate.
Onthe other hand 910 is nothing when compared to population of china.
Overall i see that its not a major problem. Dont know why somuch of panic for.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 11 Feb 2020 03:33

FWIW: Just posting R0 number from different sources I have seen..(Mostly reputable IMO)

Some recent study is indicating a Ro as high as 4.08. .. This value substantially exceeds WHO's estimate (made on Jan. 23) of between 1.4 and 2.5 , and is also higher than recent estimates between 3.6 and 4.0 and between 2.24 to 3.58 Other estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5

For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is about 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 11 Feb 2020 03:45

Sharing:
Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Mortality Rate
(Last updated: February 10, 17:30 GMT)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
>>
Novel Coronavirus Mortality Rate, as discussed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China
Asked at a press conference on February 4 what the current mortality rate (or case fatality rate, CFR) is, an official with China NHC said that [7]:

The formula they are using is: cumulative current total deaths / current confirmed cases. Therefore, as of 24:00 on Feb. 3, the formula used was 425/20,438.
Based on this figure, the national mortality rate to date was 2.1% of confirmed cases.
There might be mild cases and other cases not reported.
97% of the country's total deaths (414) were in the Hubei Province.
Mortality rate in Wuhan was 4.9%.
Mortality rate in the Hubei Province was 3.1%.
Mortality rate nationwide was 2.1%.
Fatality rate in other provinces was 0.16%.
Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.
Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.
National mortality rate was basically stable, as of Feb. 4 at 2.1%, and it was 2.3% at the beginning of the epidemic, which can be seen as a slight decline.
Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.
Elderly people with basic diseases, as long as they have pneumonia, were clinically a high-risk factor regardless of whether it is a coronavirus or not, and the case fatality rate was also very high, so it is not that the case fatality rate of pneumonia is high because of the infection with the new coronavirus. "This point must be explained to everyone," concluded the NHC official.[7]
World Health Organization: too

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 11 Feb 2020 03:50

"Daily growth rate from the above source: (Similar to others posted)
Image

From daily new cases:
Image

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 11 Feb 2020 04:39

Some statistics (latest at the time of posting)

There are currently 40,660 confirmed cases and 910 deaths from the Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak as of February 10, 2020, 21:00 GMT.

The condition of patients, according to the World Health Organization (Feb. 7 press conference) and based on 17,000 cases in China, are:

82% mild
15% severe
3% critical

"Total Cases" = total cumulative count (40,660). This figure therefore includes deaths and recovered/discharged patients (cases with an outcome). By removing these from the "total cases" figure, we get "currently infected cases" (cases still awaiting for an outcome).
Currently Infected 36,080
Mild Condition 29,585 (82%)
Serious or Critical 6,495 (18%)

Cases with Outcome 4,580
Recovered/Discharged 3,670 (80%)
Deaths 910 (20%)

Vamsee
BRFite
Posts: 560
Joined: 16 Mar 2001 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Vamsee » 11 Feb 2020 04:48

@spectatorindex

BREAKING: Coronavirus death toll reaches 1013

The Hubei health authority reported that 103 more people died of the coronavirus in Hubei province on Monday, raising the death toll in the epidemic's epicenter to 974.

This brings the total number of deaths in mainland China to at least 1,011. Globally, a total of 1,013 people have died, including one death in Hong Kong and one in the Philippines.

Hubei authorities confirmed an additional 2,097 cases of the virus in Hubei on Monday, which brings the total number of cases in the region to 31,728.

More than 25,000 patients have been hospitalized in Hubei, including 1,298 who are in critical condition, according to the health authority. More than two thousand patients have been cured and discharged.

The global number of confirmed coronavirus cases now exceeds 42,500. The vast majority of cases remains in mainland China.

China’s National Health Commission is expected to release numbers for all of China’s provinces later.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13868
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Feb 2020 06:35

I think markets are assuming, like UBCN that "this too shall pass" and Cheen will come roaring back. But this week I am worried that panic might set in unless clear downturn is seen. Markets don't look back at the horrors that are past.

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 343
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vimal » 11 Feb 2020 06:58

Amber G. wrote:Some statistics (latest at the time of posting)

There are currently 40,660 confirmed cases and 910 deaths from the Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak as of February 10, 2020, 21:00 GMT.
...


What is the source of these numbers? I hope it is not the Mao's morning magazine!

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13868
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Feb 2020 07:15

Source cannot be cited, probably Reuters.
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets looked set for another cautious session on Tuesday as investors tried to judge how quickly China's factories could return to work as the coronavirus continues to spread and deaths mount.
China's Hubei province reported 2,097 new cases and 103 new deaths on Feb. 10, with a fatality rate of 3.07%. The total number of deaths in China has topped 1,000, well past the toll from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome which killed hundreds worldwide in 2002.2003..
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.1% with the Australian market rising 0.6% and South Korea's KOSPI lifting 0.7%.
Japan's Nikkei was closed for a holiday, though futures traded just a shade firmer.
E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 were a tad weaker, down 0.07%, after a late jump took Wall Street to fresh record highs on Monday. The Dow rose 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.73% and the Nasdaq 1.13%.
The gains came even as the (WHO) warned the spread of coronavirus among people who had not been to China could be "the spark that becomes a bigger fire".
In China, factories were slow in re-opening after an extended Lunar New Year break, leading analysts at JPMorgan to again downgrade forecasts for growth this quarter.
"The coronavirus outbreak completely changed the dynamics of the Chinese economy," they wrote in a note.
"The coronavirus is an unexpected, tentative demand shock, and it has also become a notable supply shock due to prolonged factory shutdown. The magnitude of the supply shock depends on the pace of production recovery."
They assumed the contagion would peak in March and factories would slowly resume opening this month, though the situation remained uncertain. In this case, growth would brake sharply to around a 1% annualized pace in the first quarter, before rebounding to 9.3% in the second.
Should the contagion not peak until April, growth could turn negative in the first quarter, with a rebound spread over the second and third quarters.
The risks are such that investors are wagering on more stimulus from Beijing, while a host of other central banks are under pressure to safeguard their economies with cheaper loans.
Markets are pricing in more than 40 basis points of easing this year from the Federal Reserve and again nudged the Treasury yield curve negative, to reflect the danger of recession.

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 11 Feb 2020 09:22

vimal wrote:
Amber G. wrote:Some statistics (latest at the time of posting)

There are currently 40,660 confirmed cases and 910 deaths from the Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak as of February 10, 2020, 21:00 GMT.
...


What is the source of these numbers? I hope it is not the Mao's morning magazine!


Source(s) are reputable (WHO, CDC etc) and consistent with each other.. a good place I central place I have used is John Hopkins ...https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 11 Feb 2020 09:49

^^^Also there is a very nice article - just published in JAMA - For doctors and serious people to read.. It talks about clinical study of 138 patients in one hospital in January..

One of the thing stuck me that 41% of these 138 people (55 people) originally did NOT have the virus and caught it in the hospital because of others. (Most of them were health-care workers and rest were patients who were there (initially) for other reasons.

Link: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044


(Other new items, for me - the ratio of men/woman is almost 50-50 instead of earlier reports...the mortality rate was 4.3% (data till Feb 3) and may go a little high, as a few are still in ICU)

Some cut and paste from above:
Results Of 138 hospitalized patients with NCIP, the median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 42-68; range, 22-92 years) and 75 (54.3%) were men. Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]). Common symptoms included fever (136 [98.6%]), fatigue (96 [69.6%]), and dry cough (82 [59.4%]). Lymphopenia (lymphocyte count, 0.8 × 109/L [interquartile range {IQR}, 0.6-1.1]) occurred in 97 patients (70.3%), prolonged prothrombin time (13.0 seconds [IQR, 12.3-13.7]) in 80 patients (58%), and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (261 U/L [IQR, 182-403]) in 55 patients (39.9%). Chest computed tomographic scans showed bilateral patchy shadows or ground glass opacity in the lungs of all patients. Most patients received antiviral therapy (oseltamivir, 124 [89.9%]), and many received antibacterial therapy (moxifloxacin, 89 [64.4%]; ceftriaxone, 34 [24.6%]; azithromycin, 25 [18.1%]) and glucocorticoid therapy (62 [44.9%]). Thirty-six patients (26.1%) were transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) because of complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (22 [61.1%]), arrhythmia (16 [44.4%]), and shock (11 [30.6%]). The median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days. Patients treated in the ICU (n = 36), compared with patients not treated in the ICU (n = 102), were older (median age, 66 years vs 51 years), were more likely to have underlying comorbidities (26 [72.2%] vs 38 [37.3%]), and were more likely to have dyspnea (23 [63.9%] vs 20 [19.6%]), and anorexia (24 [66.7%] vs 31 [30.4%]). Of the 36 cases in the ICU, 4 (11.1%) received high-flow oxygen therapy, 15 (41.7%) received noninvasive ventilation, and 17 (47.2%) received invasive ventilation (4 were switched to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). As of February 3, 47 patients (34.1%) were discharged and 6 died (overall mortality, 4.3%), but the remaining patients are still hospitalized. Among those discharged alive (n = 47), the median hospital stay was 10 days (IQR, 7.0-14.0).

Conclusions and Relevance In this single-center case series of 138 hospitalized patients with confirmed NCIP in Wuhan, China, presumed hospital-related transmission of 2019-nCoV was suspected in 41% of patients, 26% of patients received ICU care, and mortality was 4.3%.
Last edited by Amber G. on 11 Feb 2020 09:55, edited 1 time in total.

Prem Kumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2415
Joined: 31 Mar 2009 00:10

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Prem Kumar » 11 Feb 2020 09:53

There was an interesting tweet about how China is releasing the # of dead & infected in a controlled manner each day, so that the ratio is always 2.1%.

Given the caginess of China, their history of lying and how they tried to suppress the breakout in December, I am convinced that the death toll is an order of magnitude higher (10K)

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 11 Feb 2020 09:59

^^^ It's easy to tweet anything.. just because it is "interesting" doesn't mean it is correct or meaningful.

BTW now WHO is officially present, so data may be more complete and accurate.

SriKumar
BRFite
Posts: 1894
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 11 Feb 2020 10:46

Not to belabor the same point but while WHO just got in, the data collection is still done at the hospital level and collated from the hundreds of hospitals (original/makeshift) with nCV patients across several cities/provinces by city/province govts. I doubt WHO will be in a position to verify accuracy of data collection and summary.
Last edited by SriKumar on 11 Feb 2020 10:49, edited 1 time in total.

sanjaykumar
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4220
Joined: 16 Oct 2005 05:51

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 11 Feb 2020 10:48

Why 2.1% specifically? Any meaning for the Chinese?

WHO uses data already provided, it does not collect data except perhaps in Africa.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13868
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Feb 2020 14:24

Serious Source: New York Times. nCV2019 climbs "defective" water pipes to go from floor to floor in apartment block.
The local outbreak prompted comparisons to an incident in 2003 when 329 residents of a housing estate in Hong Kong became infected with SARS. The virus was later found to have spread through defective piping. Forty-two of the infected residents died. :shock:
“Our initial understanding is that the relevant household may have done some self-remodeling work,” Frank Chan, Hong Kong’s secretary for transport and housing, said of the outbreak on Tuesday.
Mr. Chan denied that the recent cases were comparable to the 2003 outbreak because of the location of the pipes. In the earlier case, the pipes were outside the building and the SARS virus was spread through the air.
At a government-organized news briefing on Tuesday, Professor Yuen Kwok-yung, a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong, said the situation this time appeared to be different. But he said the authorities were not ruling out the possibility of airborne.

Sounds like a plug (no pun intended) from the Hong Kong Plumbers Union Lobby.

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 316
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 11 Feb 2020 16:33

Not sure if this has been posted before.

Image

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3820
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hnair » 11 Feb 2020 16:49

It is going to be a tall order for Chinese government to make the "wild eat" connoisseurs desist from eating dodgy animals and their body parts.

Heck, if Batman was chinese, he would end up clapping and singing in a train in Wuhan for coin.

madhu
BRFite
Posts: 316
Joined: 12 Oct 2005 17:00
Location: India

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 11 Feb 2020 17:35

Amber G. wrote:FWIW: Just posting R0 number from different sources I have seen..(Mostly reputable IMO)

Some recent study is indicating a Ro as high as 4.08. .. This value substantially exceeds WHO's estimate (made on Jan. 23) of between 1.4 and 2.5 , and is also higher than recent estimates between 3.6 and 4.0 and between 2.24 to 3.58 Other estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5

For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is about 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.


Same info in graphical form

Image

Arun.prabhu
BRFite
Posts: 358
Joined: 28 Aug 2016 19:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 11 Feb 2020 18:34

https://twitter.com/lwcalex/status/1226840055869632512 <--- Apple daily reporter claiming that China is manipulating confirmed case numbers. Just like before Jan 18 when it was mandatory for someone to have visited the Wuhan seafood market before they could be diagnosed with nCoV disease, the Chinese bureaucrats have now established guidelines where if you test positive, but don't show symptoms, you aren't a confirmed case. Per the Chinese government, you must test positive and show symptoms, which is contrary to WHO guidelines that state testing positive for the virus confirms the disease.

If you'll read through the thread, you'll find many Chinese paid trolls or provocateurs trying to reframe the narrative by bypassing the question of why China isn't counting those who test positive as confirmed cases and instead claiming that the asymptomatic positive tested people are still quarantined and thus it isn't a problem. The problem that those trolls want us to ignore is that China is hiding actual count of infected from the world.

This is the document that Apple Daily used as the primary source.
http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/202 ... d0509a.pdf

In p.15 of the document, you have:
“上报的“疑似病例”、“临床诊断病例”(仅限湖北省)根据
实验室检测结果,及时订正为“确诊病例”或及时排除。
“无症状感染者”如出现临床表现,及时订正为“确诊病例”。”
—>

Which when translated with google translate, gives you this:

"The reported “suspected cases” and “clinical diagnosed cases” (only in Hubei Province) are based on
The results of laboratory tests should be corrected as “confirmed cases” or eliminated in time.
If "asymptomatic infection" appears clinically, it should be corrected to "confirmed case" in time."


The key phrase is "If "asymptomatic infection" appears clinically, it should be corrected to "confirmed case" in time."" How many other chicaneries are the Chinese government using to lie about the disease, one wonders.

John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2285
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby John » 11 Feb 2020 18:44

^ Part of pressure to underreport and call a peak is also coming from US admin which wants Wall Street to continue going higher till the election. Chinese admin acknowledged they facing pressure to let Foxconn open its plant and hinted it was likely from Trump (when he spoke with Xi and said by May all will be good) .

China didn’t even have balls to renegotiate the phase 1 deal now since China no longer needs to buy 40 bill from US farmers with their consumption tanking. Imagine the outcry if we were to relent to bullying this easily especially during a crisis, it’s good Modi has more backbone than Xi.

Arun.prabhu
BRFite
Posts: 358
Joined: 28 Aug 2016 19:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 11 Feb 2020 18:50

Was Trump pressuring the Chinese between Mid December and mid January when the Chinese bureaucrats insisted that it was mandatory that a patient should have visited the seafood market to be diagnosed with the disease apart from showing symptoms and testing positive for the virus? The Chinese are doing what communists always do. Lie. Lie and then lie some more. It's not because of Trump or the world. It's how the system works. Case in point: Chernobyl. Until the evidence of the coverup became overwhelming Russia denied the meltdown.

John wrote:^ Part of pressure to underreport and call a peak is coming from US admin which wants Wall Street to continue going higher till the election. Chinese admin acknowledged they facing pressure to let Foxconn open its plant and hinted it was likely from Trump (when he spoke with Xi and said by May all will be good) . China didn’t even balls to renegotiate the phase 1 deal since China no longer needs to buy 40 bill from US farmers with their consumption tanking. Imagine the outcry if we were to relent to bullying this easily especially during a crisis, it’s good Modi has more backbone than Xi.

John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2285
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby John » 11 Feb 2020 18:55

Arun.prabhu wrote:Was Trump pressuring the Chinese between Mid December and mid January when the Chinese bureaucrats insisted that it was mandatory that a patient should have visited the seafood market to be diagnosed with the disease apart from showing symptoms and testing positive for the virus? The Chinese are doing what communists always do. Lie. Lie and then lie some more. It's not because of Trump or the world. It's how the system works. Case in point: Chernobyl. Until the evidence of the coverup became overwhelming Russia denied the meltdown.

John wrote:^ Part of pressure to underreport and call a peak is coming from US admin which wants Wall Street to continue going higher till the election. Chinese admin acknowledged they facing pressure to let Foxconn open its plant and hinted it was likely from Trump (when he spoke with Xi and said by May all will be good) . China didn’t even balls to renegotiate the phase 1 deal since China no longer needs to buy 40 bill from US farmers with their consumption tanking. Imagine the outcry if we were to relent to bullying this easily especially during a crisis, it’s good Modi has more backbone than Xi.


Not denying the Chinese are doing it as well and US and other countries are not calling it out because it serves in their best interest to underreport and cover it up.

Arun.prabhu
BRFite
Posts: 358
Joined: 28 Aug 2016 19:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 11 Feb 2020 19:06

V True. An epidemiologist is saying that worst case, 50-60% of the world gets the disease and then wimps out and walks back his doomsaying with a 1% mortality rate. If 4 billion people get infected, there'll be 200-400 million deaths first order deaths as medical resources are stretched beyond the breaking point and most of the serious cases drop dead from lack of oxygen and palliative care. Second order deaths from starvation as fields go untended, as logistical chains break down, as power plants shut down, as water supplies in mega cities run out, as civil disturbance from loss of basic amenities in cities and towns, large and small, would add another billion or more. We'll lose cutting edge technologies - two or three decades of technological advances - and most low trust societies will break down entirely. Africa, ME, EU and China will go up in flames. Rest may or may not.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... population

Of course, my calculations are absolute worst case, but 60% of the world population getting the disease is no fairy tale either.

John wrote:
Arun.prabhu wrote:Was Trump pressuring the Chinese between Mid December and mid January when the Chinese bureaucrats insisted that it was mandatory that a patient should have visited the seafood market to be diagnosed with the disease apart from showing symptoms and testing positive for the virus? The Chinese are doing what communists always do. Lie. Lie and then lie some more. It's not because of Trump or the world. It's how the system works. Case in point: Chernobyl. Until the evidence of the coverup became overwhelming Russia denied the meltdown.



Not denying the Chinese are doing it as well and US and other countries are not calling it out because it serves in their best interest to underreport and cover it up.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13868
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Feb 2020 19:42

madhu wrote:Same info in graphical form
Image

This graph helps to make the point that I cited earlier. Despite experience, stocks of masks and medicines, and improvement in medical infrastructure and coordination resulting from experience, nCoV has hit more people, and is killing more people, than previous virus attacks. IOW, advancement in virus offensive technology is much greater than advancement in human intelligent response.
WHY? The most obvious conclusion is that nCoV was developed in a "lab" where they knew all the characteristics, effects and antidotes of the previous versions. Is the NATURAL evolution "lab" faster than the best of human labs? If not, you know what conclusion this points to.
Also consider that death rate outside cheen is far lower than the rates cited by CTs/ "accidental data release" by SoChiMoPo. Further pointer.
From the graph nCoV still may not be up to SARS level, but the graph may be old: it suggests that nCoV must be further along the diagonal relative to SARS.
Now the fatalities have exceeded those of SARS, and number of infections also may have done so.. despite stringent action to control infection. I do not believe that China shut down for SARS. So the horizontal axis (# of persons infected by each person) has also increased fast.

IOW, its like all the efforts of the People's Infection Control Army over the past 20 years is essentially in vain. Leader heading for Gobi Re-Education?

John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2285
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby John » 11 Feb 2020 21:30

In US markets a lot of big players who helped paint a rosy picture and push the markets high are starting to unload while the sheep aka Individual investors are buying equities because of all market gains. The latter are sadly in for rude awakening as they are buying at its peak and are gonna get big time when market goes down. This is same scenario that happened in 2008.

vinod
BRFite
Posts: 711
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby vinod » 11 Feb 2020 21:45

John wrote:In US markets a lot of big players who helped paint a rosy picture and push the markets high are starting to unload while the sheep aka Individual investors are buying equities because of all market gains. The latter are sadly in for rude awakening as they are buying at its peak and are gonna get big time when market goes down. This is same scenario that happened in 2008.


Wouldn't the authorities pump cash into markets in the scenario? Yes, may be a small correction, but no crash!

SriKumar
BRFite
Posts: 1894
Joined: 27 Feb 2006 07:22
Location: sarvatra

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby SriKumar » 11 Feb 2020 21:46

So, is the wet market theory officially done for?

This is an article posted earlier by Arun.prabhu of an interview with a doctor from Wuhan. It was given to Caixin GLobal- sounds like mainland China-based company, so I assume it has the blessing of the politburo (or whichever red-suited official manages the message in that ilaaka/peta/pettai). https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... avirus-icu

Per article, This doctor told the govt officials to delete the wet-market-contact as a criterion to confirm nCV. City Health officials acquiesced only after he asked them again, many days later, when the situation got worse. The doctor is a director of Acute Medicine at the Wuhna Univ Hospital. Given that this article came out of ground-zero and from a Chinese source (CaiXin Global), and the doctor's credentials, I think it might have the official seal of approval that the wet-market theory is no longer applicable. So, if it aint the wet market, then where did the virus come from? A lab? as some seem to imply. Could it be both- wet market and something else? Afterall, the cluster of initial cases did seem to have the wet market as a common factor.

Pictures in the article are from the Wuhan Convention Center. One notes that all patients are wearing winter jackets and a heavy razai/blanket on top. Probably no central heating in this convention-center-turned-hospital. THe article also mentions that the doctors/nurses wearing the HAzmat suits cannot remove suits for 12 hours, due to shortage of suits (article is in Feb 6, and still having shortages). SO no eating, drinking during this time....Pretty rough for them.
Last edited by SriKumar on 11 Feb 2020 21:59, edited 1 time in total.

John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2285
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby John » 11 Feb 2020 21:59

vinod wrote:
John wrote:In US markets a lot of big players who helped paint a rosy picture and push the markets high are starting to unload while the sheep aka Individual investors are buying equities because of all market gains. The latter are sadly in for rude awakening as they are buying at its peak and are gonna get big time when market goes down. This is same scenario that happened in 2008.


Wouldn't the authorities pump cash into markets in the scenario? Yes, may be a small correction, but no crash!

Markets generally dont like uncertainty and this too much uncertainly it should crash. No way should S&P500 be trading at close to 26 PE more around 20 which indicates a big correction.

The whole cash infusion by China and Fed got played up while Finanical analysts kept playing up that there is less severe than SARS, we reached the peak, a cure has been found (which turned out to false news by Reuters). Now all of a sudden a rash of bad news coming from Wall Street just as markets high their highs...

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13868
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Feb 2020 22:07

May be possible to stuff a couple of bread rolls/cups of noodles into those hazmat suits, to eat w/o taking suit off. Potty does pose a problem.

Arun.prabhu
BRFite
Posts: 358
Joined: 28 Aug 2016 19:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 11 Feb 2020 22:36

Nope. It's not the suits that's the problem, it's the environment. If your suit is cut or you remove a mask or glove, you are supposed to disinfect, dispose of the suit and disinfect again to be certain. That is, I believe, SOP. They can't go out of the quarantined area wearing a suit and come back without removing and disposing of it and they need to go out of it to eat, take a piss or shit. And since the inventory of suits and other expendables are limited, they have to conserve because this thing is not anywhere near done and supplies will be limited for some time to come as factories are shut down. Of course, if you're really anal about disinfecting and very thorough - OCD levels of obsession with thoroughness and cleanliness here - you can reuse the suits, though it isn't SOP and isn't recommended. During the worst of the last ebola epidemic in Congo, someone took care of their infected family members wearing waste plastic bags and disinfecting those bags thoroughly every day for many, many days. That person did not catch the disease because they were that thorough. For most anyone else one, we aren't that OCD and we will mess up and catch the disease.

An example suit:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/rf/image ... 9997c5.jpg



UlanBatori wrote:May be possible to stuff a couple of bread rolls/cups of noodles into those hazmat suits, to eat w/o taking suit off. Potty does pose a problem.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13868
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 11 Feb 2020 22:55

I assume that they can easily set up super-disinfected pakistans. 200-proof vodka, imported straight from Vladivostok. Truly the Pure Land(ing seat) of The Pure. Also same with sanitized food areas. Cheen are not that clueless: they have survived under uber-baboon for ages. Hooctchie-kootchie... now THERE's a small problem. Maybe population will be down below that of desh's by end of the year, and through a decrease in the Source Term, not the Sink Term.

Arun.prabhu
BRFite
Posts: 358
Joined: 28 Aug 2016 19:26

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Arun.prabhu » 11 Feb 2020 23:07

They have to put on that suit on if they want to reuse and if it isn't thoroughly disinfected, they risk breaking containment (not that it is contained now, but it's the principle of the thing I'm talking about here.) or catching that disease and passing it on to the rest of the medical staff. If there is no other recourse and they will reuse that suit. If the situation gets worse, they'll be forced to, but at this point, they are trying to stretch out the inventory long enough in the hope that they'll get replenished.

UlanBatori wrote:I assume that they can easily set up super-disinfected pakistans. 200-proof vodka, imported straight from Vladivostok. Truly the Pure Land(ing seat) of The Pure. Also same with sanitized food areas. Cheen are not that clueless: they have survived under uber-baboon for ages. Hooctchie-kootchie... now THERE's a small problem. Maybe population will be down below that of desh's by end of the year, and through a decrease in the Source Term, not the Sink Term.

Rony
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3028
Joined: 14 Jul 2006 23:29

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Rony » 12 Feb 2020 00:14

How India pulled off a miracle in virus-hit Wuhan. Bollywood material

Indian envoy describes evacuation of Indians from virus-hit Wuhan a logistical nightmare

Amber G.
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6862
Joined: 17 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: Ohio, USA

Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Amber G. » 12 Feb 2020 00:21

Few tools to follow the coronavirus - Hope this is helpful -

- Johns Hopkins CSSE map
This online dashboard from Johns Hopkins uses CDC and WHO data to track the outbreak in real time.

Health Map
Uses AI to scrape posts on news sites and social media to create a heat map of the virus, which can be useful.

Coronavirus app
This app from two French expats in Taiwan has a useful breakdown of infections, deaths, and recoveries by region.

Baido Map
( From Chinese search engine Baidu - epidemic map alongside its normal map, which shows real-time locations of confirmed and suspected coronavirus cases)

Chinese flight and train checker
(From: Chinese cybersecurity firm -- input flight or train numbers to see if you have travelled with anyone infected with the coronavirus. :!:

Everything under the sun and more
(Analysis of everything coming under CT/rumors etc)


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Suresh S and 35 guests