Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

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sanjaykumar
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sanjaykumar » 29 Mar 2020 06:08

https://www.newsweek.com/more-50-doctor ... us-1494781

Rest in peace comrades, you have earned it.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby shaun » 29 Mar 2020 06:44

Bart S wrote:Meanwhile, this is encouraging, hope it is carried out:
Aditya Raj Kaul
@AdityaRajKaul
Over 1.5-2 lakh migrant workers who left New Delhi for different villages & districts of Uttar Pradesh this week would be now quarantined for two weeks in their villages/hometowns. Local administration has been instructed. Migrants to be identified. Infrastructure being prepared.

Actually once this migrants are at UP border , they are mostly boarding UP Government buses. The instructions is to note their name , address , mobile no and temperature check on each people inside bus.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Suresh S » 29 Mar 2020 06:49

Good idea ramana. I have stated my position several weeks ago on this thread. Indian govt handling of this situation gets an A grade from me. India will come out of this crisis ahead of everyone else civilizationally, economically and militarily. It is my prediction. Ram lalla in Ayodhya after centuries. Nothing will touch India . Indian govt is doing a better job than everyone else and should continue to do what it is doing.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 29 Mar 2020 06:54

fascinating little study that models prediction of peak and total toll of COVID 19 in the US - can be broken down by state as well:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

credits to faculty at U Washington. What do mathemagicians on forum think - calling Sudarshan, Amber and others

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Gerard » 29 Mar 2020 07:10


CalvinH
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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby CalvinH » 29 Mar 2020 07:17

shaun wrote:
Bart S wrote:Meanwhile, this is encouraging, hope it is carried out:
Aditya Raj Kaul
@AdityaRajKaul
Over 1.5-2 lakh migrant workers who left New Delhi for different villages & districts of Uttar Pradesh this week would be now quarantined for two weeks in their villages/hometowns. Local administration has been instructed. Migrants to be identified. Infrastructure being prepared.

Actually once this migrants are at UP border , they are mostly boarding UP Government buses. The instructions is to note their name , address , mobile no and temperature check on each people inside bus.


UP government has averted a large disaster precipitated by Delhi Government actions by putting 3000 vehicles (government and private) over the evening to take the huge migrant crowd out of Anand Vihar. Salute to them.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Santosh » 29 Mar 2020 09:45

It looks like Italy has already peaked in terms of new cases and may peak in terms of deaths per day in the next couple of days - full 3 weeks after country wide lockdown. Spain is a week behind Italy and has peaked in terms of new cases. But the worst is yet to come in terms of deaths per day.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sudarshan » 29 Mar 2020 09:52

Cain Marko wrote:fascinating little study that models prediction of peak and total toll of COVID 19 in the US - can be broken down by state as well:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

credits to faculty at U Washington. What do mathemagicians on forum think - calling Sudarshan :shock: , Amber and others


Added emphasis mine. Disclaimers: math is not my field, I did pick up some gyan on data analysis in a previous job, where I was required to serve in a role rather along the lines of "jack(ass) of all trades." As for magic, I confess I dabbled a little in my childhood and youth, but I was always an indifferent magician.

I looked at that model. From my limited comprehension of what they did (I could be totally off), they picked a model which they thought (or found) fit the US cumulative death rate data best. Then they estimated the parameters of the model, and used the best fitting parameters to predict the future. Kind of like - track the location of an incoming missile by radar, fit it to some model, use the model to predict where and when the missile is going to land (just a crude analogy for the non-math types, which technically I am myself).

Now the parameters - I suspect the model is going to be extremely sensitive to the parameter they call "beta," which is, the time after the start of the data (they have a criterion to decide that starting time) at which the death rate increase peaks. The estimate of this parameter will basically decide the shape of the curves and future predictions. The median range comes from the best estimates of p and beta, while the lower and upper ranges come from the error estimates, which are also included in the model.

I would like to think that they estimated values of p and beta, which end up pushing the curve too high, i.e., that 80,000 cumulative deaths is excessive. However - if you look at the curves, they modeled using data up to March 24th. So we are already four days past that date, and we can compare actual data for those 4 days with the model predictions for the 4 days.

The first thing I noticed, is that it turns out that the actual data are *higher* than the mean-line model predictions, on all 4 of those days. So the model mean-line might actually be an underestimate (hope not). The bad thing is that the author(s) say they have already accounted for social distancing (I didn't read deep enough to figure out how).

Then the next thing I noticed, is that the data up to March 24th (which the authors used to fit their model) does not match the data which I have. I got my data from here:

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-dat ... states.csv

The data in the above location is separated by state, I added the numbers for each state myself to arrive at the national total. The time series I have, compared to what the author(s) of that paper have:

Date nytimes Author(s)
2/29/2020 1 1
3/1/2020 3 4
3/2/2020 6 6
3/3/2020 10 10
3/4/2020 12 13
3/5/2020 12 17
3/6/2020 15 23
3/7/2020 19 23
3/8/2020 22 31
3/9/2020 26 35
3/10/2020 31 39
3/11/2020 37 45
3/12/2020 43 51
3/13/2020 50 55
3/14/2020 60 65
3/15/2020 68 75
3/16/2020 91 98
3/17/2020 116 122
3/18/2020 157 137
3/19/2020 203 209
3/20/2020 265 255
3/21/2020 343 310
3/22/2020 436 436
3/23/2020 546 551
3/24/2020 731 705

I don't know where the authors got their data from, the training data obviously makes all the difference to the predictions. So it's still possible that the data for the next few days will fall below the model trend line in that paper. Will the actual data for the next few days go below the low-end estimate of the model? IOW, is the USA going to see 30K to 40K cumulative deaths, at least? Hope not, we will know in three or four days, depending on where the actual death rate data fall with respect to the curves on the model. The reason I can't tell for sure right now, is that my time series doesn't match the one which the author(s) have in their paper. If they had matched, I'd have been more confident in evaluating their model estimates.

For comparison, Italy already has 10K deaths, and their daily death rate isn't going below 600 per day yet. There are some questions about what Italy counts as a "coronavirus death" (i.e., that they're counting all deaths as coronavirus deaths, if the test for CV comes out positive). It seems Italy's definition of "CV death" is very different from that of, say, South Korea or Germany. So maybe Italy's count is greatly exaggerated. But if not, I think it makes sense that the USA, with 5X Italy's population, has a correspondingly higher number of deaths, since both countries followed essentially the same "look the other way" strategy.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Cain Marko » 29 Mar 2020 10:15

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:fascinating little study that models prediction of peak and total toll of COVID 19 in the US - can be broken down by state as well:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

credits to faculty at U Washington. What do mathemagicians on forum think - calling Sudarshan :shock: , Amber and others




The first thing I noticed, is that it turns out that the actual data are *higher* than the mean-line model predictions, on all 4 of those days. So the model mean-line might actually be an underestimate (hope not). The bad thing is that the author(s) say they have already accounted for social distancing (I didn't read deep enough to figure out how).

Then the next thing I noticed, is that the data up to March 24th (which the authors used to fit their model) does not match the data which I have. I got my data from here:

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-dat ... states.csv

The data in the above location is separated by state, I added the numbers for each state myself to arrive at the national total. The time series I have, compared to what the author(s) of that paper have:

Date nytimes Author(s)
2/29/2020 1 1
3/1/2020 3 4
3/2/2020 6 6
3/3/2020 10 10
3/4/2020 12 13
3/5/2020 12 17
3/6/2020 15 23
3/7/2020 19 23
3/8/2020 22 31
3/9/2020 26 35
3/10/2020 31 39
3/11/2020 37 45
3/12/2020 43 51
3/13/2020 50 55
3/14/2020 60 65
3/15/2020 68 75
3/16/2020 91 98
3/17/2020 116 122
3/18/2020 157 137
3/19/2020 203 209
3/20/2020 265 255
3/21/2020 343 310
3/22/2020 436 436
3/23/2020 546 551
3/24/2020 731 705

I don't know where the authors got their data from, the training data obviously makes all the difference to the predictions. So it's still possible that the data for the next few days will fall below the model trend line in that paper. Will the actual data for the next few days go below the low-end estimate of the model? IOW, is the USA going to see 30K to 40K cumulative deaths, at least? Hope not, we will know in three or four days, depending on where the actual death rate data fall with respect to the curves on the model. The reason I can't tell for sure right now, is that my time series doesn't match the one which the author(s) have in their paper. If they had matched, I'd have been more confident in evaluating their model estimates.

For comparison, Italy already has 10K deaths, and their daily death rate isn't going below 600 per day yet. There are some questions about what Italy counts as a "coronavirus death" (i.e., that they're counting all deaths as coronavirus deaths, if the test for CV comes out positive). It seems Italy's definition of "CV death" is very different from that of, say, South Korea or Germany. So maybe Italy's count is greatly exaggerated. But if not, I think it makes sense that the USA, with 5X Italy's population, has a correspondingly higher number of deaths, since both countries followed essentially the same "look the other way" strategy.

Thanks for the detailed response Sudarshan.
WRT data, From their paper:
study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments


in terms of their mean line - I thought it overestimated the death numbers for the last 4 days since their mean line shows higher numbers than what actually happened. and so perhaps their total of 81k loss would also be an overestimate. But you suggest that they are underestimating. What am I missing?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Manish_P » 29 Mar 2020 10:54

Thr fightback continues

After the 5 minute corona virus detection test kits by Abbot in the USA, Dyson UK gets into the fight

James Dyson designed a new ventilator in 10 days. He's making 15,000 for the pandemic fight

Dyson has received an order from the UK government for 10,000 ventilators to support efforts by the country's National Health Service to treat coronavirus patients.

Dyson said the company had designed and built an entirely new ventilator, called the "CoVent," since he received a call 10 days ago from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

"This new device can be manufactured quickly, efficiently and at volume," Dyson added, saying that the new ventilator has been designed to "address the specific needs" of coronavirus patients.


A spokesperson for the company, which is best known for its vacuum cleaners and hand dryers, said the ventilators would be ready by early April. Dyson, who has wealth worth $10 billion according to Bloomberg, wrote in his letter that he would also donate 5,000 units to the international effort to tackle the pandemic.

Alok Sharma, the UK business minister, said Friday that ventilators made by Dyson and other suppliers will need to meet regulatory requirements before being used by the National Health Service. Pressed on how quickly that can happen during an interview with BBC Radio 4, Sharma said the government wanted to see "prototypes coming forward in a matter of weeks before we move into large scale production."

"The critical point is to make sure that any machines that come forward actually meet the requirements and are safe," he added.


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby hanumadu » 29 Mar 2020 11:03

Kashmir valley has the supposedly ideal temperatures for spread of the Wuhan Virus. How come we are not seeing similar infections as those in the western cold countries? I think the several months of lock down and not allowing foreigners into the valley is a major factor in saving the valley people from the fate of italy or uk.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Kati » 29 Mar 2020 11:10

sudarshan wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:fascinating little study that models prediction of peak and total toll of COVID 19 in the US - can be broken down by state as well:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

credits to faculty at U Washington. What do mathemagicians on forum think - calling Sudarshan :shock: , Amber and others


Added emphasis mine. Disclaimers: math is not my field, I did pick up some gyan on data analysis in a previous job, where I was required to serve in a role rather along the lines of "jack(ass) of all trades." As for magic, I confess I dabbled a little in my childhood and youth, but I was always an indifferent magician.

I looked at that model. From my limited comprehension of what they did (I could be totally off), they picked a model which they thought (or found) fit the US cumulative death rate data best. Then they estimated the parameters of the model, and used the best fitting parameters to predict the future. Kind of like - track the location of an incoming missile by radar, fit it to some model, use the model to predict where and when the missile is going to land (just a crude analogy for the non-math types, which technically I am myself).

Now the parameters - I suspect the model is going to be extremely sensitive to the parameter they call "beta," which is, the time after the start of the data (they have a criterion to decide that starting time) at which the death rate increase peaks. The estimate of this parameter will basically decide the shape of the curves and future predictions. The median range comes from the best estimates of p and beta, while the lower and upper ranges come from the error estimates, which are also included in the model.

I would like to think that they estimated values of p and beta, which end up pushing the curve too high, i.e., that 80,000 cumulative deaths is excessive. However - if you look at the curves, they modeled using data up to March 24th. So we are already four days past that date, and we can compare actual data for those 4 days with the model predictions for the 4 days.

The first thing I noticed, is that it turns out that the actual data are *higher* than the mean-line model predictions, on all 4 of those days. So the model mean-line might actually be an underestimate (hope not). The bad thing is that the author(s) say they have already accounted for social distancing (I didn't read deep enough to figure out how).

Then the next thing I noticed, is that the data up to March 24th (which the authors used to fit their model) does not match the data which I have. I got my data from here:

https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-dat ... states.csv

The data in the above location is separated by state, I added the numbers for each state myself to arrive at the national total. The time series I have, compared to what the author(s) of that paper have:

Date nytimes Author(s)
2/29/2020 1 1
3/1/2020 3 4
3/2/2020 6 6
3/3/2020 10 10
3/4/2020 12 13
3/5/2020 12 17
3/6/2020 15 23
3/7/2020 19 23
3/8/2020 22 31
3/9/2020 26 35
3/10/2020 31 39
3/11/2020 37 45
3/12/2020 43 51
3/13/2020 50 55
3/14/2020 60 65
3/15/2020 68 75
3/16/2020 91 98
3/17/2020 116 122
3/18/2020 157 137
3/19/2020 203 209
3/20/2020 265 255
3/21/2020 343 310
3/22/2020 436 436
3/23/2020 546 551
3/24/2020 731 705

I don't know where the authors got their data from, the training data obviously makes all the difference to the predictions. So it's still possible that the data for the next few days will fall below the model trend line in that paper. Will the actual data for the next few days go below the low-end estimate of the model? IOW, is the USA going to see 30K to 40K cumulative deaths, at least? Hope not, we will know in three or four days, depending on where the actual death rate data fall with respect to the curves on the model. The reason I can't tell for sure right now, is that my time series doesn't match the one which the author(s) have in their paper. If they had matched, I'd have been more confident in evaluating their model estimates.

For comparison, Italy already has 10K deaths, and their daily death rate isn't going below 600 per day yet. There are some questions about what Italy counts as a "coronavirus death" (i.e., that they're counting all deaths as coronavirus deaths, if the test for CV comes out positive). It seems Italy's definition of "CV death" is very different from that of, say, South Korea or Germany. So maybe Italy's count is greatly exaggerated. But if not, I think it makes sense that the USA, with 5X Italy's population, has a correspondingly higher number of deaths, since both countries followed essentially the same "look the other way" strategy.


Sudarshan-ji,
Thanks for your input.
Here is my thinking: There are two ways you can model the entire progress of the casualty and/or infected number over a time period.
(a) Bio-mathematical approach: Here you call your number at time t as N(t).
Then you bring in the all possible other factors like - infection rate, recovery rate, hospital capacity, other resource capacity, etc etc - all
stochastic. Write a suitable system of differential (or, difference) equations along with some random noise, say epsilon(t), and then solve the
system of equations using the available data by estimating all the coefficients. Once you build the model with the training data up to time T
(i.e., we have observed the casualty values for t = 1, 2, ...T), then you can predict N(t) for t = T+1, T+2, ...... etc. Usually, the model parameters are estimated by the typical Least Squares approach, but assuming (a big assumption which I suspect is NOT going to be valid here) that the errors epsilon(t) is homoscedastic, i.e., have equal variance (= sigma^2) irrespective of t. (It is this homoscedasticity which I suspect very much.) Otherwise,
we follow the weighted least squares approach to estimate the parameters (i.e., all the coefficients). At any future time t (beyond T), we can find a prediction interval for N(t) by estimating the error standard deviation sigma. Not a big deal.

Remark: For the above to hold, we need precise information about the contributing factors like infection rate, recovery rate, hospital capacity, other resources (medical staff, PPEs, etc etc.) in order to build the system of differential (or difference) equations. Solution is found by the emerging field of Computational Mathematics using heavy numerical analysis tools.

(b) Pure statistical approach: Just assume that N(t) can be expressed as a suitable linear or nonlinear function of N(t-s), for suitable max value(s) of s
(if s= 1, then it is first order auto regressive process; of s = 2, then it is second order auto regressive process, etc.) along with similar available components H(t) = hospital capacity at time t, etc etc ..... Then solve the system with least squares method. For example, simplest model one can
think of is N(t) = a + b N(t-1) + epsilon(t), where the errors are typical Gaussian with mean 0, and variance sigma^2. ....
The rest is similar to the above method-(a), though there are some time-series properties involved to derive the prediction band.

I have no idea which method the researchers used to obtain their predictions. Most importantly, hope they verified all the model assumptions.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby kvraghav » 29 Mar 2020 11:11

hanumadu wrote:Kashmir valley has the supposedly ideal temperatures for spread of the Wuhan Virus. How come we are not seeing similar infections as those in the western cold countries? I think the several months of lock down and not allowing foreigners into the valley is a major factor in saving the valley people from the fate of italy or uk.

Actually if you see, kashmir has very large number of infections especially srinagar when we consider the fact that it was under lockdown long before.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby durairaaj » 29 Mar 2020 11:25

DrRatnadip wrote:
Rahul M wrote:Docs working in India, or those who know medical professionals working in India, are you seeing a spike in pneumonia cases ?


No abnormal increase in pneumonia cases here in pune.. most cases in OPD are of sore throat and dry cough.. people are panicking it for COVID though.. it takes much effort to alleviate their fear..


In South Korea, sore throat and dry cough are considered as prominent early symptoms of Covid-19 disease. Please ask people exhibiting these symptoms to self-quarantine for atleast 3-4 days. Please aks them to cover their mouth, when they speak.

Doctors please wear maks and spectacles for eyes, when interacting with patients. Ask patients not to touch door knobs.

Compulsory wearing of masks outside home and extensive use of hand sanitizers minimized the spread to few clusters in South Korea.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Kati » 29 Mar 2020 11:38

Another great resource on Covid-19 in the US. Even county-wide info are being provided.

https://malariasystems.shinyapps.io/USCovid19_beta/

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby ricky_v » 29 Mar 2020 12:00

Japanese are doubly unlucky, first the olympics gets cancelled and now their cases rise up.
Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby madhu » 29 Mar 2020 12:48

South Korea has done most extensive testing. So i feel more confident of the numbers. If we go by their numbers total cases is 9583 and total fatality is 152. This puts case fatality ratio of just under 1.5% and total serious ill is 1%. This puts the number close to less than common flu. With this do we really need to take it up this virus so seriously? Are we giving too much importance to this virus than it deserves?

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby amar_p » 29 Mar 2020 13:21

Spoke to my cousin who heads internal medicine in a big regional hospital in Buffalo, NY. He says there could be around 10,000 cases in his region alone, health dept figures are grossly underestimated wrt the viral penetration he is seeing on the ground. Testing kits are very short in supply. Hospital staff is already overwhelmed. When I asked if he is wearing PPE kit he laughed.

With so many friends and family in Northeast, CA and WA, and many other places I'm alarmed at the US situation much more than India right now.

Seeing DangerousTroll's press conferences is only pushing anxiety into panic. What a mess !

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 29 Mar 2020 13:28

madhu wrote:South Korea has done most extensive testing. So i feel more confident of the numbers. If we go by their numbers total cases is 9583 and total fatality is 152. This puts case fatality ratio of just under 1.5% and total serious ill is 1%. This puts the number close to less than common flu. With this do we really need to take it up this virus so seriously? Are we giving too much importance to this virus than it deserves?


Low fatality indicates their medical system was not overwhelmed.. COVID has capacity to rapidly spread and overcrowd your hospitals with highly contagious pts.. This will increase risk to healthcare workers and make their work more difficult.. imagine working in PPE suits every day.. its difficult.. Increased cases of COVID will also have secondary mortality / morbidity because hospitals will not be able to handle routine cases like cardiac patients/ accidents etc.. Constant threat of
virus will make difficult to get staff for hospitals.. many of my friends are facing this problem now. It is difficult to get staff for routine cleaning, sanitation etc.. There are only two ways out of it..1) virus mutates and becomes less virulant/contagious.
2) Human race developes herd immunity through vaccines or direct infection.
We are taking unprecedented precautions and still this thing is spreading.. If we lower our guard it will certainly become deadlier..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby amar_p » 29 Mar 2020 13:34

CT theories about migrant workers moving en masse in Delhi and Kerala aside, the same problem is present in other areas of India too, which is covered better by regional press.

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/290320/migrant-groups-stuck-in-hyderabad.html
Image

One lesson Indian Govt at all levels must learn quickly is regarding the efficiency and fidelity of official communication channels. There is huge scope of improvement in this aspect. While instances of babudom & police responding quickly and efficiently are surely there, we need the entire system from center to state to district to taluk to town/village to function with a much higher level of coordination at times like these.

Sirf Modi se sabkuch mumkin nah hai.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby milindc » 29 Mar 2020 13:38

madhu wrote:South Korea has done most extensive testing. So i feel more confident of the numbers. If we go by their numbers total cases is 9583 and total fatality is 152. This puts case fatality ratio of just under 1.5% and total serious ill is 1%. This puts the number close to less than common flu. With this do we really need to take it up this virus so seriously? Are we giving too much importance to this virus than it deserves?


If you take similar numbers with flu, then the fatality rate is even lower than commonly mentioned figure of 0.1% since most don't even go to Doctor for checkup on Flu. The challenge here is that even with 1-2% hospitalization the system is overwhelmed. Check out social media messages flowing out of ER nurses in NYC. They haven't seen anything like this in there professional history, and are working with minimal protection.

It scares me more in case of India, just praying to Suryadev to turn up the heat more. Imagine the idiots in Delhi who gathered to leave for their homes in midst of the crisis.
Last edited by milindc on 29 Mar 2020 13:50, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby milindc » 29 Mar 2020 13:49

amar_p wrote:One lesson Indian Govt at all levels must learn quickly is regarding the efficiency and fidelity of official communication channels. There is huge scope of improvement in this aspect. While instances of babudom & police responding quickly and efficiently are surely there, we need the entire system from center to state to district to taluk to town/village to function with a much higher level of coordination at times like these.

Sirf Modi se sabkuch mumkin nah hai.


This will be controversial but let me state it. This is because the Indian system is extremely lax in terms of enforcement. Whether it is Dharna, stone pelters, rioters who burn public property we have a very lax attitude. When the first morons started to walk towards the border of UP if the police or enforcement officials arrested them, then the flow would have been ebbed. Then Barkha Dutt wanted a sensational story and picked it up to defame the govt machinery. More morons started to move towards the borders so that they can go to their homes and emotionally feel secure.
Then govt were forced to provide the buses, and once that happened all hell broke loose where 5-10L migrant workers decided to go home.

No, I don't believe for a moment that they were starving. Even daily worker has 5-7 days of ration. Govt could and would have provided the ration and essential supplies. The grains and other essential items were available in abundance in govt warehouses. We already have a well managed PDS.

The current crisis is due to laxity and the media. Of course woke liberals will feel empathy for these morons but we are staring at a large scale disaster if they are many infected among them. I deliberately use the term moron.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby amar_p » 29 Mar 2020 14:27

I would suggest you re-read your post. So many assumptions and prejudices there regarding migrant workers that I cant make the huge effort to reply in detail.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Dilbu » 29 Mar 2020 14:51

Large number of migrant labourers have taken to streets in Kerala. They are claiming lack of food and water and are requesting the administration to provide vehicles to travel back to their homes.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby DrRatnadip » 29 Mar 2020 14:52

https://punemirror.indiatimes.com/pune/ ... 868283.cms?

Govt expects private doctors to work without proper PPE and diagnostic tools.. politicians are even turning public opinion against doctors by calling them cowards.. But frankly if you see small private OPDs They become too crowded and will be new spreading spot for virus.. People are still coming to opd with trivial complaints like acne and constipation.. More public education and significant increase in availability of PPE is need of hour..
I am frustrated to see double face of our society in general.. All hospital staff of one hospital in Pune was evicted by landlords just because they treated a trauma pt who was later diagnosed with COVID infection.. People expect us to work in hospital, be available whenever they need and when we go back to our homes neighbors treat us as if we are intentionally bringing back virus to them..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby milindc » 29 Mar 2020 15:14

DrRatnadip wrote:https://punemirror.indiatimes.com/pune/civic/scare-prompts-pvt-docs-to-shut-clinics/articleshow/74868283.cms?

Govt expects private doctors to work without proper PPE and diagnostic tools.. politicians are even turning public opinion against doctors by calling them cowards.. But frankly if you see small private OPDs They become too crowded and will be new spreading spot for virus.. People are still coming to opd with trivial complaints like acne and constipation.. More public education and significant increase in availability of PPE is need of hour..
I am frustrated to see double face of our society in general.. All hospital staff of one hospital in Pune was evicted by landlords just because they treated a trauma pt who was later diagnosed with COVID infection.. People expect us to work in hospital, be available whenever they need and when we go back to our homes neighbors treat us as if we are intentionally bringing back virus to them..


So true..
Below is a message from personal friend managing a large govt funded hospital in Hyderabad
Hi guys,
Had another long day battling the Corona panic in the hospital. Received a deluge of complaints from medical technicians & few junior doctors about social ostracisation from landlords & neighbours.. shocking!
More junior doctors put up their resignations..
We are faced with jittery & sobbing nurses on a daily basis.
I think the lockdown is helping, but if it’s not combined with a massive exercise to test & identify the positive cases & isolate them all these efforts would be in vain!
One question that remains to be answered... Will all nations have to pay the heavy price that China & Italy have paid, and Spain & probably the US is paying now? Or do we really have a short cut out of this? Hopefully yes.. But only time will tell...
Cheers guys & Wishing
good health to all of us & our families..

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby milindc » 29 Mar 2020 15:20

amar_p wrote:I would suggest you re-read your post. So many assumptions and prejudices there regarding migrant workers that I cant make the huge effort to reply in detail.

Yes, why didn't govt plan this 'once in a century' event. Why can't govt provide helicopter to transport 5-10L people to their villages. Why can't govt deposit Rs.100,000 in every account? All these assumptions also came in mind and then blamed the govt machinery. Being in the city, and running a business employing people, I can safely make assumption that even daily labourers can plan ration for 7 days. The govt machinery already geared after initial clampdown. You can still walk out and buy low quality rice from kirana in Hyderabad at 35 per kg.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 29 Mar 2020 15:46


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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Sachin » 29 Mar 2020 15:50

Dilbu wrote:Large number of migrant labourers have taken to streets in Kerala. They are claiming lack of food and water and are requesting the administration to provide vehicles to travel back to their homes.

Some of the Malayalam 24/7 News rumour mongering channels have said that they would NOT telecast visuals or detailed news about this. But social media is already given it the due coverage. The sad part is that none of the labour agents or contractors who brought in these people now want to feed them or take responsibility of their well being. And this is in a state which talks about communism, socialism, "guest workers", 100% literacy etc. etc. These incidents just prove that behind the hype of all this, the underlying motive has always been greed. The commies who boast about eradicating feudalism from Kerala, just made it more spread out; every body is now a feudal lord in Kerala with these migrant labourers actually toiling for them.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Deans » 29 Mar 2020 16:03

kvraghav wrote:
hanumadu wrote:Kashmir valley has the supposedly ideal temperatures for spread of the Wuhan Virus. How come we are not seeing similar infections as those in the western cold countries? I think the several months of lock down and not allowing foreigners into the valley is a major factor in saving the valley people from the fate of italy or uk.

Actually if you see, kashmir has very large number of infections especially srinagar when we consider the fact that it was under lockdown long before.


Kashmir and Ladakh have more cases per million than rest of India.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Dilbu » 29 Mar 2020 16:06

The same channel which has gracefully decided not to telecast the crowds in the streets of Kerala due to its sense of civic duty is still telecasting the scenes from Delhi and other states. Hypocrisy at its best.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby sgrover » 29 Mar 2020 16:22

This is a study which models the effects of social distancing during the lockdown. The conclusion here is that 21 days is insufficient. Either a continuous period of 49 days, or multiple lockdowns will be needed to get the virus under control. (refer to figure 4)

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12055.pdf

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Mollick.R » 29 Mar 2020 16:42

Does it makes sense ??????

I don't think it makes sense, because there is time lag if approx 14 days from infection of person to that person showing up as infected person in govt. records.........

Image

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby manju » 29 Mar 2020 16:43

I have tried to summarize what has happened so far.. i try to keep it up to date.. you may find this useful. http://tinyurl.com/Covid-UpdateStragegy-Vijay

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby milindc » 29 Mar 2020 16:47

Mollick.R wrote:Does it makes sense ??????

I don't think it makes sense, because there is time lag if approx 14 days from infection of person to that person showing up as infected person in govt. records.........

Image


Just 4-7 days to onset of initial symptoms that include fever and cough, per people on the field in UK. 14 days is outlier.
We should see lot of infected in next 4-5 days going for medical care if indeed the infection is prevalent in India.
However, the govt machinery is not testing people unless they qualify for all 3 criteria
1) Fever
2) Cough
3) Travel history or contact with traveller

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Bart S » 29 Mar 2020 16:59

Dilbu wrote:Large number of migrant labourers have taken to streets in Kerala. They are claiming lack of food and water and are requesting the administration to provide vehicles to travel back to their homes.


Whatsapp fwds claim that most of these people are from WB (could include Bangladeshis) and are being a bit unreasonable, for e.g refusing cooked food as they only want Bengali style food? And the demand that vehicles be arranged to take them all the way back home to WB seems outrageous.

Everybody sympathizes with migrant labour but this might be going a bit too far.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby Krita » 29 Mar 2020 17:01

amar_p wrote:I would suggest you re-read your post. So many assumptions and prejudices there regarding migrant workers that I cant make the huge effort to reply in detail.

I live in Dwarka near NSIT College. The maid, cook, security guard, vegetable vendor are from either Bihar, UP or Tamilnadu. They mostly live in Matiala area, none of them have left for their native place. As a rule (due to Wuhan Coronavirus) people in my society have transferred their monthly wages directly to their account. Kirana stores in the society and in the sector market are open and the shopping is token based. Vegetable vendor has a WA account, we message the requirement and he delivers it at our main gate.
Delhi migrant issue have been deliberately mismanaged to settle political scores by Khujliwal and his team. Amit Shah needs to give the long overdue Bamboo to AAPiyas, non performing bureaucrats and the errant fake news peddlers else at the end of all this only the central govt will be blamed. Yogi ji is doing a stellar job in controlling the viral spread and managing the large influx of migrants. In the long run, Delhi will suffer if they ignore the large hardworking population of migrant laborers. Kerala is no better ,I have seen scores of labor camps in Perumbavoor , Vallam ,Aluva belt , the living conditions were horrible and unhygienic. The Wuhan Coronavirus must have worsened their situation with no work and wages.
Last edited by Krita on 29 Mar 2020 17:29, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby deejay » 29 Mar 2020 17:18

manju wrote:I have tried to summarize what has happened so far.. i try to keep it up to date.. you may find this useful. http://tinyurl.com/Covid-UpdateStragegy-Vijay


Well done Sir!. Excellent effort. Thank You.

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby milindc » 29 Mar 2020 17:19

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/covid-19-seal-borders-to-stop-migrants-centre-to-states/20200329.htm

Seal borders to stop migrants: Center
Kejriwal made announcements in Delhi bastis stating that migrant workers can go to Anand Vihar

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Re: Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

Postby manju » 29 Mar 2020 17:38

Clinical presentation varies from asymptomatic infection to mild illness to severe or fatal illness. Most people present with symptoms about 7-9 (range 5-13 days) days after exposure (if they become symptomatic) Some reports suggest the potential for clinical deterioration during the second week of illness. One study reported mean time from illness onset to hospital admission with pneumonia after an average of 9 days. In one report, the median time from symptom onset to ARDS was 8 days. Approximately 20-30% of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and pneumonia have required intensive care for respiratory support .

Patients present with nonspecific symptoms of cough, fever and difficulty breathing and have a tendency to deteriorate very rapidly in a matter of hours to a day. There it is extremely important for patients to be monitored closely. With the impending shortage of specialists and doctors it is imperative to train and up skills non doctors health workers to identify worsening cases in a timely fashion so that they could be intubated preemptively. Emergency intubation generates aerosols and increases the spread of infection. Hence there is a need for a rapid scale of skills of healthcare workers.

In addition telemedicine would be useful to adapt as it will make available high level expertise even at the peripheral level. This would particularly be useful where an internist (for example) could be monitoring a large group (up to 50) remotely aided by on the field junior doctors and a couple of nurses. Aided by a checklist and protocol, these on the field staff could constantly gather data and at established thresholds obtain inputs from the remote internist to identify patients who might be going into respiratory failure. Social media platforms like whatsapp, telegram, or video conferencing tools can be used as well if needed for visualization of the patient. This team could then set up an intubation kit and while the others simultaneously notify the intensivist/critical care doctors so that preemptive intubation of the patient placement on the ventilator can happen smoothly. This process will eliminate the need to place the patient on an oxygen mask (non rebreather) or to provide positive pressure ventilation with (AMBU bag) which leads to aerosolization and increased risk of transmission to health care workers.

I feel we will soon see patients being care in place we could never imagine... public places, stadiums, .. already railways has made hospitals out of bogies (had mentioned this last week)
There will be a need for capacity building on a massive scale with the need to up skills all levels of care. asha worker playing role of assistant nurse, ... nurse playing role of intern/AYUSH doctor, who will in turn have to play role of MBBS doctor (experienced), MBBS doctors to play role of Consultant and so on.... We dont have enough internists (with vent skills) /anesthetists/critical care doc/ED docs to manage the surge

lot of training / capacity building need. need for protocols and workflow. Hope the government is planning on it.

more details here https://tinyurl.com/CovidUpdateStrategies


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